Multitrophic diversity effects depend on consumer specialization and species‐specific growth and grazing rates

Ecosystem functioning is affected by horizontal (within trophic groups) and vertical (across trophic levels) biodiversity. Theory predicts that the effects of vertical biodiversity depend on consumer specialization. In a microcosm experiment, we investigated ciliate consumer diversity and specialization effects on algal prey biovolume, evenness and composition, and on ciliate biovolume production. The experimental data was complemented by a process‐based model further analyzing the ecological mechanisms behind the observed diversity effects. Overall, increasing consumer diversity had no significant effect on prey biovolume or evenness. However, consumer specialization affected the prey community. Specialist consumers showed a stronger negative impact on prey biovolume and evenness than generalists. The model confirmed that this pattern was mainly driven by a single specialist with a high per capita grazing rate, consuming the two most productive prey species. When these were suppressed, the prey assemblage became dominated by a less productive species, consequently decreasing prey biovolume and evenness. Consumer diversity increased consumer biovolume, which was stronger for generalists than for specialists and highest in mixed combinations, indicating that consumer functional diversity, i.e. more diverse feeding strategies, increased resource use efficiency. Overall, our results indicate that consumer diversity effects on prey and consumers strongly depend on species‐specific growth and grazing rates, which may be at least equally important as consumer specialization in driving consumer diversity effects across trophic levels. Synthesis In a microcosm experiment, we investigated multitrophic consumer diversity and specialization effects using ciliate consumers and microalgal prey. Consumer diversity increased consumer biovolume, which was highest in combinations containing both generalists and specialists. Specialist consumers showed a stronger negative effect on prey biovolume and evenness than generalists. These experimental data were supported by a process‐based model, indicating that the large effect of the specialists was based on high per capita grazing rate on the two most productive prey species. Species‐specific traits such as growth and grazing rates were equally important for multitrophic diversity effects than consumer specialization.     

The effects of hydrological disturbance on the densities of macroinvertebrate predators and their prey in a coastal stream

1. Environmental Stress Models (ESMs) predict that abiotic disturbance or harshness will differentially affect predators and prey. Consumer Stress Models (CSMs) predict that consumers will be relatively more inhibited by disturbance than prey, and therefore predator impacts will be reduced. Conversely, Prey Stress Models (PSMs) predict that prey will be more adversely affected and consequently predator impacts will increase in disturbed habitats. This study compared the relative tolerances of lotic invertebrate predators and their prey to hydrological disturbance in an Australian coastal stream to test the initial predictions of ESMs.
2. Macroinvertebrates were sampled with a suction sampler at monthly intervals and immediately following four high flow events at five sites on the Cumberland River, in south-west Victoria, Australia. Various statistical procedures were used to compare the relative resistance and resilience of predatory and prey taxa to each high flow event.
3. The relative resistances of seven predator and nine prey taxa to four floods over a 12-month period were highly variable between floods and between runs within the same flood. Prey taxa appeared to be more resilient than predators to the largest flood event, but there were no differences in the resilience of predators and prey following smaller floods. If disturbance tolerance is determined by resistance and resilience, then there was no consistent pattern of differential tolerance to floods among invertebrate predators and prey in this system.
4. The variability in the relative tolerances of taxa to different disturbance events makes general predictions about the effects of disturbance on the community-wide impact of predation extremely difficult.     

Species richness changes across two trophic levels simultaneously affect prey and consumer biomass

Increasing species richness of primary producers or consumers is proposed to increase primary and secondary production; however, the consequences of biodiversity change across trophic levels has been poorly investigated. We used a controlled marine microbial system to investigate the effects of simultaneous changes in biodiversity of consumer and prey species. Consumer (ciliates) and prey (algae) richness and identity were manipulated independently in a complete factorial design. The results showed clear biodiversity effects of both consumers and prey, within and across trophic levels. We found reduced prey and increased consumer biomass with increased consumer richness, with the most diverse prey assemblage supporting the highest biomass of consumers at the highest richness of consumers. Increasing prey richness did not increase resistance to consumption when consumers were present. Instead, our results indicated enhanced energy transfer with simultaneous increasing richness of consumers and prey.     

Food and habitats requirements of the Eurasian Scops Owl (Otus scops) in Switzerland revealed by very high-resolution multi-scale models

In Europe, agricultural practices have progressively evolved towards high productivity leading either to the intensification of productive and accessible areas or to the abandonment of less profitable sites. Both processes have led to the degradation of semi-natural habitats like extensive grasslands, threatening species such as the Eurasian Scops Owl Otus scops that rely on extensively managed agricultural landscapes. In this work, we aimed to assess the habitat preferences of the Scops Owl using habitat suitability models combined with a multi-scale approach. We generated a set of multi-scale predictors, considering both biotic and abiotic variables, built on two newly developed vegetation management and orthopteran abundance models. To select the variables to incorporate in a ‘best multi-scale model’, we chose the best spatial scale for each variable using univariate models and by calculating their relative importance through multi-model inference. Next, we built ensembles of small models (ESMs) at 10 different scales from 50 to 1000 m, and an additional model with each variable at its best scale (‘best multi-scale model’). The latter performed better than most of the other ESMs and allowed the creation of a high-resolution habitat suitability map for the species. Scops Owls showed a preference for dry sites with extensive and well-structured habitats with 30–40% bush cover, and relied strongly on semi-extensive grasslands covering at least 30% of the surface within 300 m of the territory centre and with high orthopteran availability near the centre (50-m radius), revealing a need for good foraging grounds near the nest. At a larger spatial scale within a radius of 1000 m, the habitat suitability of Scops Owls was negatively related to forest cover. The resulting ESM predictions provide valuable tools for conservation planning, highlighting sites in need of particular conservation efforts together with offering estimates of the percentage of habitat types and necessary prey abundance that could be used as targets in future management plans to ensure the persistence of the population.     

Inclusion of biotic stress (consumer pressure) alters predictions from the stress gradient hypothesis

1.  The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts a shift from net negative interactions in benign environments towards net positive in harsh environments in ecological communities. While several studies found support for the SGH, others found evidence against it, leading to a debate on how nature and strength of species interactions change along stress gradients, and to calls for new empirical and theoretical work.
2.  In the latest attempt in this journal, it is successfully argued how the SGH should be expanded by considering different life strategies of species (stress tolerance versus competitive ability) and characteristics of abiotic stress (resource versus non-resource based) over wider stress gradients (opposed to low–high contrasts), but the crucial role of biotic stress by consumers is largely ignored in this refinement.
3.  We point out that consumers strongly alter the outcome of species interactions in benign and harsh environments, and show how inclusion of consumer-incurred biotic stress alters the predicted outcome of interactions along resource- and non-resource-based stress gradients for stress-tolerant and competitive benefactors and beneficiaries.
4.   Synthesis. New studies should include stress gradients consisting of both abiotic and biotic components to disentangle their impacts, and to improve our understanding of how species interactions change along environmental gradients.     

Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?

Changing climate can modify predator–prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food‐hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze–thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze–thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze–thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long‐term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food‐hoarding species could be substantial, because their ‘freezers’ may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food‐hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.     

Improving plant drought tolerance and growth under water limitation through combinatorial engineering of signalling networks

Agriculture is by far the biggest water consumer on our planet, accounting for 70 per cent of all freshwater withdrawals. Climate change and a growing world population increase pressure on agriculture to use water more efficiently (‘more crop per drop’). Water‐use efficiency (WUE) and drought tolerance of crops are complex traits that are determined by many physiological processes whose interplay is not well understood. Here, we describe a combinatorial engineering approach to optimize signalling networks involved in the control of stress tolerance. Screening a large population of combinatorially transformed plant lines, we identified a combination of calcium‐dependent protein kinase genes that confers enhanced drought stress tolerance and improved growth under water‐limiting conditions. Targeted introduction of this gene combination into plants increased plant survival under drought and enhanced growth under water‐limited conditions. Our work provides an efficient strategy for engineering complex signalling networks to improve plant performance under adverse environmental conditions, which does not depend on prior understanding of network function.     

Simultaneous exposure to a pulsed and a prolonged anthropogenic stressor can alter consumer multifunctionality

Ecosystems face multiple anthropogenic threats globally, and the effects of these environmental stressors range from individual‐level organismal responses to altered system functioning. Understanding the combined effects of stressors on process rates mediated by individuals in ecosystems would greatly improve our ability to predict organismal multifunctionality (e.g. multiple consumer‐mediated functions). We conducted a laboratory experiment to test direct and indirect, as well as immediate and delayed effects of a heat wave (pulsed stress) and micropollutants (MPs) (prolonged stress) on individual consumers (the great pond snail Lymnaea stagnalis) and their multifunctionality (i.e. consumption of basal resources, growth, reproduction, nutrient excretion and organic‐matter cycling). We found that stressful conditions increased the process rates of multiple functions mediated by individual consumers. Specifically, the artificial heat wave increased process rates in the majority of the quantified functions (either directly or indirectly), whereas exposure to MPs increased consumption of basal resources which led to increases in the release of nutrients and fine particulate organic matter. Moreover, snails exposed to a heat wave showed decreased reproduction and nutrient excretion after the heat‐wave, indicating the potential for ecologically relevant delayed effects. Our study indicates that the immediate and delayed effects of stressors on individual organisms may directly and indirectly impact multiple ecosystem functions. In particular, delayed effects of environmental stress on individual consumers may cumulatively impede recovery due to decreased functioning following a perturbation. Reconciling these results with studies incorporating responses at higher levels of biological complexity will enhance our ability to forecast how individual responses upscale to ecosystem multifunctionality.     

Experimental separation of effects of consumers on sessile prey in the low zone of a rocky shore in the Bay of Panama: direct and indirect consequences of food web complexity

The effects of predation by a diverse assemblage of consumers on community structure of sessile prey was evaluated in the low rocky intertidal zone at Taboguilla Island in the Bay of Panama. Four functional groups of consumers were defined: (1) large fishes, (2) small fishes and crabs, (3) herbivorous molluscs, and (4) predaceous gastropods, (l) and (2) included fast-moving consumers and (3) and (4) included slow-moving consumers. Experimental treatments were: no consumers deleted (all groups present), most combinations of deletions of single groups (i.e., one group absent, three present), pairs of groups deleted (two absent, two present), trios of groups deleted (three absent, one present), and the entire consumer assemblage deleted (all groups absent). Changes in abundance (percent cover) of crustose algae, solitary sessile invertebrates, foliose algae, and colonial sessile invertebrates were quantified periodically in 2–4 plots of each treatment from February 1977 to January 1980 after the initiation of the experiment in January 1977.

Space on this shore is normally dominated by crustose algae; foliose algae, solitary sessile invertebrates, and colonial sessile invertebrates are all rare. After deletion of all consumers, ephemeral green algae increased from 0 to nearly 70% cover. Thereafter, a succession of spatial dominants occurred, with peak abundances as follows: the foliose coralline alga Jania spp. by July 1977, the barnacle Balanus inexpectatus by April 1978, and the rock oyster Chama echinata by January 1980. Although no longer occupying primary rock space, Jania persisted as a dominant or co-dominant turf species (with the brown alga Giffordia mitchelliae and/or the hydrozoan Abietinaria sp.) by colonizing shells of sessile animals as they became abundant instead of the rock surface.

Multivariate analysis variance (MANOVA) indicated that the effect of each group was as follows. Molluscan herbivores grazed foliose algae down to the grazer-resistant, but competitively inferior algal crusts, altered the relative abundances of the crusts, and inhibited recruitment of sessile invertebrates. Predaceous gastropods reduced the abundance of solitary sessile animals. Small fishes and crabs, and large fishes reduced the cover of solitary and colonial sessile animals and foliose algae, although they were incapable of grazing the foliose algae down to the rock surface. Many of the effects of each consumer group on prey groups or species were indirect; some effects were positive and some were negative. The variety of these indirect effects was due to both consumer-prey interactions among the consumers, and competitive or commensalistic interactions among the sessile prey. Comparison of the sum of the effects of each of the single consumer groups (i.e., the sum of the effect observed in treatments with one group absent, three present) with the total effects of all consumers (i.e., the effect observed in the treatment with all groups absent) indicates that a “keystone” consumer was not present in this community. Rather, the impacts of the consumer groups were similar but, due to dietary overlap and compensatory changes among the consumers, not readily detected in deletions of single consumer groups. The normally observed dominance of space by crustose algae is thus maintained by persistent, intense predation by a diverse assemblage of consumers on potentially dominant sessile animals and foliose algae. The large difference in structure between this and temperate intertidal communities seems due to differences in degree, not kind of ecological processes which produce the structure.     

The influence of consumer behavior on the environmental footprint of passenger car tires

Understanding the influence of consumer behavior on the life cycle of products can provide further insights into effective mitigation strategies. Here, we developed a stochastic model to quantify the influence of consumer behavior on midpoint and endpoint impacts of European passenger car tires. The life cycle included resource extraction, production, use, and end-of-life stages of a passenger car tire with a functional unit of driving 50,000 km. The combined influence of variability in the lifetime, rolling resistance, size and inflation pressure of the tire, and mass and engine efficiency of the car on a range of environmental footprints was assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. We found that differences in consumer behavior can change the environmental impacts of tires with a factor 1.6 to 2.1 (95th/5th percentile). Environmental savings over the life cycle of tires are effectively achievable by stimulating the use of smaller cars and fuel-efficient tires with longer lifetimes. We found that a shift in consumer behavior specifically related to tires can result in mitigations of the tire's life cycle impacts ranging from 13% for human toxicity to 26% for climate change. Our findings show that a detailed variability analysis can provide case-specific and realistic recommendations to mitigate environmental footprints.     

Environmental analysis of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior

This study analyzed the environmental impacts of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior to assist packaging designers in making environmentally conscious decisions. Packaging can be functionalized to prevent food loss and waste (FLW), for example, extending the expiration date and apportioning the package size, but it can generate additional environmental impacts from changes in food and packaging production. Previous studies assessed additional impacts from packaging production; however, the effects of packaging functionalization are yet to be connected with food production and consumer behavior. To examine the effect of functionalization on these aspects, we analyzed packaging‐derived changes in food production for milk and cabbage products. The case study compared products with functionalized packaging that permits a longer expiration date or a smaller portion size to their base‐case products. Our results showed that the packaging‐derived changes increased the global warming potential (GWP) of food production more than other processes did. Thus, changes in food production weakened the effectiveness of the packaging functionalization to decrease the GWP. Moreover, the analysis of consumer behavior scenarios showed that consumers’ perception of the expiration date decisively influences the effectiveness of packaging functionalization. When consumers discarded food after the expiration date, provided they consumed in small quantities, the packaging functionalization reduced FLW. From the scenario analysis, we identified appropriate combinations of packaging functionalization and consumer behaviors to effectively decrease total GWP. With our expanded analysis, packaging designers can understand the effectiveness of their decisions on the product life cycle in reducing FLW and environmental impacts.     

Responses of an African wading bird community to resource pulses are related to foraging guild and food‐web position

1. The immediate impacts of nutrient inputs on aquatic systems are well documented, but the ways in which resource pulses affect the wider food web of water‐associated vertebrates remain obscure. 2. We monitored the wading bird community of Barberspan, a natural freshwater lake and Ramsar wetland in South Africa, before, during and after the addition of a pulse of nutrients in the form of a sewage overspill from an upstream processing facility. We counted waders at 13 points around the lake over 3 years, every 2 months from March 2007 to March 2010, and sampled water quality during all counting periods from January 2008 to January 2010. 3. We used our data to test the hypothesis that wading birds that forage directly at lower trophic levels and/or on prey populations that have fast turnover rates, such as those of phytoplankton and invertebrates, will be more heavily influenced by nutrient addition than birds that forage on species with lower turnover rates and/or at higher trophic levels (such as frogs and fish). 4. During the sampling period Barberspan experienced a significant, nutrient‐driven decline and subsequent recovery in dissolved oxygen and pH. This trend was mirrored by significant changes in the wading bird community. Partial Mantel tests and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) showed that the nutrient pulse had marked short‐term, negative impacts on both the diversity and the abundance of medium‐sized, shoreline foragers such as scolopacids (e.g. sandpipers). 5. Our analysis supports the proposal that both food‐web position and the turnover rate of the prey population are strong influences on ecological responses to resource pulses. Analysis of time series of principal components that describe community composition suggested that recovery of the prey base was rapid and that the bird community was able to respond via immigration. These results must, of course, be considered provisional in the absence of replicated experimental data. 6. More generally, we interpret our results as suggesting that two different mechanisms act in different directions to determine the sensitivity of secondary and tertiary consumers to changes in their prey. First, for ‘earlier’ consumers (i.e. that forage lower in the food web), there are (on average) fewer generalist consumers and fewer stored nutrients in the intervening trophic levels. This increases the sensitivity of earlier consumer populations to changes in the composition of the primary consumer community. Second, the dynamics of prey populations lower in the food web tend to be faster, making recovery faster and serving to decrease the sensitivity of earlier consumers to perturbations. These dynamics may obscure the impacts of nutrient pulses in cases where additional analysis of system trajectories is not undertaken.     

可持续消费的内涵及研究进展——产业生态学视角

生产和消费是产生诸多环境问题的根本原因,而可持续生产和消费则是实现可持续发展的根本途径。基于产业生态学视角,界定了可持续消费的定义及内涵,认为可持续消费首先须符合代内公平、代际公平和资源能源永续合理利用等可持续理念;其次辨识了可持续消费研究依次经历关注消费者行为直接环境影响、关注产品和服务生命周期环境影响到关注消费者责任3个阶段;最后结合我国城市化、工业化背景,提出我国可持续消费研究应该以城市居民为重点、加强生命周期数据库建设和内注重可持续生产等建议。     

Untrained consumer assessment of the eating quality of European beef: 2. Demographic factors have only minor effects on consumer scores and willingness to pay

The beef industry must become more responsive to the changing market place and consumer demands. An essential part of this is quantifying a consumer’s perception of the eating quality of beef and their willingness to pay for that quality, across a broad range of demographics. Over 19 000 consumers from Northern Ireland, Poland, Ireland and France each tasted seven beef samples and scored them for tenderness, juiciness, flavour liking and overall liking. These scores were weighted and combined to create a fifth score, termed the Meat Quality 4 score (MQ4) (0.3×tenderness, 0.1×juiciness, 0.3×flavour liking and 0.3×overall liking). They also allocated the beef samples into one of four quality grades that best described the sample; unsatisfactory, good-every-day, better-than-every-day or premium. After the completion of the tasting panel, consumers were then asked to detail, in their own currency, their willingness to pay for these four categories which was subsequently converted to a proportion relative to the good-every-day category (P-WTP). Consumers also answered a short demographic questionnaire. The four sensory scores, the MQ4 score and the P-WTP were analysed separately, as dependant variables in linear mixed effects models. The answers from the demographic questionnaire were included in the model as fixed effects. Overall, there were only small differences in consumer scores and P-WTP between demographic groups. Consumers who preferred their beef cooked medium or well-done scored beef higher, except in Poland, where the opposite trend was found. This may be because Polish consumers were more likely to prefer their beef cooked well-done, but samples were cooked medium for this group. There was a small positive relationship with the importance of beef in the diet, increasing sensory scores by about 4% in Poland and Northern Ireland. Men also scored beef about 2% higher than women for most sensory scores in most countries. In most countries, consumers were willing to pay between 150 and 200% more for premium beef, and there was a 50% penalty in value for unsatisfactory beef. After quality grade, by far the greatest influence on P-WTP was country of origin. Consumer age also had a small negative relationship with P-WTP. The results indicate that a single quality score could reliably describe the eating quality experienced by all consumers. In addition, if reliable quality information is delivered to consumers they will pay more for better quality beef, which would add value to the beef industry and encourage improvements in quality.     

Insect declines and agroecosystems: does light pollution matter?

Drastic declines in insect populations, ‘Ecological Armageddon’, have recently gained increased attention in the scientific community, and are commonly considered to be the consequence of large‐scale factors such as land‐use changes, use of pesticides, climate change and habitat fragmentation. Artificial light at night (ALAN), a pervasive global change that strongly impacts insects, remains, however, infrequently recognised as a potential contributor to the observed declines. Here, we provide a summary of recent evidence of impacts of ALAN on insects and discuss how these impacts can drive declines in insect populations in light‐polluted areas. ALAN can increase overall environmental pressure on insect populations, and this is particularly important in agroecosystems where insect communities provide important ecosystem services (such as natural pest control, pollination, conservation of soil structure and fertility and nutrient cycling), and are already under considerable environmental pressure. We discuss how changes in insect populations driven by ALAN and ALAN itself may hinder these services to influence crop production and biodiversity in agricultural landscapes. Understanding the contribution of ALAN and other factors to the decline of insects is an important step towards mitigation and the recovery of the insect fauna in our landscapes. In future studies, the role of increased nocturnal illumination also needs to be examined as a possible causal factor of insect declines in the ongoing ‘Ecological Armageddon’, along with the more commonly examined factors. Given the large scale of agricultural land use and the potential of ALAN to indirectly and directly impact crop production and biodiversity, a better understanding of effects of ALAN in agroecosystems is urgently needed.     

Understandings of climate change articulated by Swedish secondary school students

This study investigated beliefs about climate change among Swedish secondary school students at the end of their K-12 education. An embedded mixed method approach was used to analyse 51 secondary school students’ written responses to two questions: (1) What implies climate change? (2) What affects climate? A quantitative analysis of the responses revealed that ‘Earth’, ‘human’ and ‘greenhouse effect’ were frequent topics regarding the first question, and ‘pollution’, ‘atmosphere’ and ‘Earth’ were frequent regarding the second. A qualitative analysis, based on a ‘conceptual elements’ framework, focused on three elements within responses: atmosphere (causes and/or consequences), Earth (causes and consequences) and living beings (humans and/or animals and their impacts on climate change). It revealed a predominantly general or societal, rather than individual, perspective underlying students’ responses to the second question. The ability to connect general/societal issues with individual issues relating to climate change could prompt students to reflect on the contributions of individuals towards climate change mitigation, thereby constituting a basis for decision-making to promote a sustainable environment. Although the students did not discuss climate changes from an individual perspective, their statements revealed their understanding of climate change as a system comprising various components affecting the overall situation. They also revealed an understanding of the difference between weather and climate.     

Are all GMOs the same? Consumer acceptance of cisgenic rice in India

India has more than 215 million food‐insecure people, many of whom are farmers. Genetically modified (GM) crops have the potential to alleviate this problem by increasing food supplies and strengthening farmer livelihoods. For this to occur, two factors are critical: (i) a change in the regulatory status of GM crops, and (ii) consumer acceptance of GM foods. There are generally two classifications of GM crops based on how they are bred: cisgenically bred, containing only DNA sequences from sexually compatible organisms; and transgenically bred, including DNA sequences from sexually incompatible organisms. Consumers may view cisgenic foods as more natural than those produced via transgenesis, thus influencing consumer acceptance. This premise was the catalyst for our study—would Indian consumers accept cisgenically bred rice and if so, how would they value cisgenics compared to conventionally bred rice, GM‐labelled rice and ‘no fungicide’ rice? In this willingness‐to‐pay study, respondents did not view cisgenic and GM rice differently. However, participants were willing‐to‐pay a premium for any aforementioned rice with a ‘no fungicide’ attribute, which cisgenics and GM could provide. Although not significantly different (P = 0.16), 76% and 73% of respondents stated a willingness‐to‐consume GM and cisgenic foods, respectively.     

Untrained consumer assessment of the eating quality of beef: 1. A single composite score can predict beef quality grades

Quantifying consumer responses to beef across a broad range of demographics, nationalities and cooking methods is vitally important for any system evaluating beef eating quality. On the basis of previous work, it was expected that consumer scores would be highly accurate in determining quality grades for beef, thereby providing evidence that such a technique could be used to form the basis of and eating quality grading system for beef. Following the Australian MSA (Meat Standards Australia) testing protocols, over 19 000 consumers from Northern Ireland, Poland, Ireland, France and Australia tasted cooked beef samples, then allocated them to a quality grade; unsatisfactory, good-every-day, better-than-every-day and premium. The consumers also scored beef samples for tenderness, juiciness, flavour-liking and overall-liking. The beef was sourced from all countries involved in the study and cooked by four different cooking methods and to three different degrees of doneness, with each experimental group in the study consisting of a single cooking doneness within a cooking method for each country. For each experimental group, and for the data set as a whole, a linear discriminant function was calculated, using the four sensory scores which were used to predict the quality grade. This process was repeated using two conglomerate scores which are derived from weighting and combining the consumer sensory scores for tenderness, juiciness, flavour-liking and overall-liking, the original meat quality 4 score (oMQ4) (0.4, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3) and current meat quality 4 score (cMQ4) (0.3, 0.1, 0.3, 0.3). From the results of these analyses, the optimal weightings of the sensory scores to generate an ‘ideal meat quality 4 score (MQ4)’ for each country were calculated, and the MQ4 values that reflected the boundaries between the four quality grades were determined. The oMQ4 weightings were far more accurate in categorising European meat samples than the cMQ4 weightings, highlighting that tenderness is more important than flavour to the consumer when determining quality. The accuracy of the discriminant analysis to predict the consumer scored quality grades was similar across all consumer groups, 68%, and similar to previously reported values. These results demonstrate that this technique, as used in the MSA system, could be used to predict consumer assessment of beef eating quality and therefore to underpin a commercial eating quality guarantee for all European consumers.     

A new class of non-linear stochastic population models with mass conservation

We study the effects of random feeding, growing and dying in a closed nutrient-limited producer/consumer system, in which nutrient is fully conserved, not only in the mean, but, most importantly, also across random events. More specifically, we relate these random effects to the closest deterministic models, and evaluate the importance of the various times scales that are involved. These stochastic models differ from deterministic ones not only in stochasticity, but they also have more details that involve shorter times scales. We tried to separate the effects of more detail from that of stochasticity. The producers have (nutrient) reserve and (body) structure, and so a variable chemical composition. The consumers have only structure, so a constant chemical composition. The conversion efficiency from producer to consumer, therefore, varies. The consumers use reserve and structure of the producers as complementary compounds, following the rules of Dynamic Energy Budget theory. Consumers die at constant specific rate and decompose instantaneously. Stochasticity is incorporated in the behaviour of the consumers, where the switches to handling and searching, as well as dying are Poissonian point events. We show that the stochastic model has one parameter more than the deterministic formulation without time scale separation for conversions between searching and handling consumers, which itself has one parameter more than the deterministic formulation with time scale separation for these conversions. These extra parameters are the contributions of a single individual producer and consumer to their densities, and the ratio of the two, respectively. The tendency to oscillate increases with the number of parameters. The focus bifurcation point has more relevance for the asymptotic behaviour of the stochastic model than the Hopf bifurcation point, since a randomly perturbed damped oscillation exhibits a behaviour similar to that of the stochastic limit cycle particularly near this bifurcation point. For total nutrient values below the focus bifurcation point, the system gradually becomes more confined to the direct neighbourhood of the isocline for which the producers do not change.