Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models

The demographic variance of an age-structured population is defined. This parameter is further split into components generated by demographic stochasticity in each vital rate. The applicability of these parameters are investigated by checking how an age-structured population process can be approximated by a diffusion with only three parameters. These are the deterministic growth rate computed from the expected projection matrix and the environmental and demographic variances. We also consider age-structured populations where the fecundity at any stage is either zero or one, and there is neither environmental stochasticity nor dependence between individual fecundity and survival. In this case the demographic variance is uniquely determined by the vital rates defining the projection matrix. The demographic variance for a long-lived bird species, the wandering albatross in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, is estimated. We also compute estimates of the age-specific contributions to the total demographic variance from survival, fecundity and the covariance between survival and fecundity.     

Extinction risk assessment of declining wild populations: The case of the southern Bluefin Tuna

We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size, if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing.     

Modeling density dependence and climatic disturbances in caribou: a case study from the Bathurst Island complex, Canadian High Arctic

Peary caribou Rangifer tarandus pearyi is the northernmost subspecies of Rangifer in North America and endemic to the Canadian High Arctic. Because of severe population declines following years of unfavorable winter weather with ice coating on the ground or thicker snow cover, it is believed that density-independent disturbance events are the primary driver for Peary caribou population dynamics. However, it is unclear to what extent density dependence may affect population dynamics of this species. Here, we test for different levels of density dependence in a stochastic, single-stage population model, based on available empirical information for the Bathurst Island complex (BIC) population in the Canadian High Arctic. We compare predicted densities with observed densities during 1961–2001 under various assumptions of the strength of density dependence. On the basis of our model, we found that scenarios with no or very low density dependence led to population densities far above observed densities. For average observed disturbance regimes, a carrying capacity of 0.1 caribou km⁻² generated an average caribou density similar to that estimated for the BIC population over the past four decades. With our model we also tested the potential effects of climate change-related increases in the probability and severity of disturbance years, that is unusually poor winter conditions. On the basis of our simulation results, we found that, in particular, potential increases in disturbance severity (as opposed to disturbance frequency) may pose a considerable threat to the persistence of this species.     

Extinction times and moment closure in the stochastic logistic process

We investigate the statistics of extinction times for an isolated population, with an initially modest number M of individuals, whose dynamics are controlled by a stochastic logistic process (SLP). The coefficient of variation in the extinction time V is found to have a maximum value when the death and birth rates are close in value. For large habitat size K we find that Vmax is of order K1/4 / M1/2, which is much larger than unity so long as M is small compared to K1/2. We also present a study of the SLP using the moment closure approximation (MCA), and discuss the successes and failures of this method. Regarding the former, the MCA yields a steady-state distribution for the population when the death rate is low. Although not correct for the SLP model, the first three moments of this distribution coincide with those calculated exactly for an adjusted SLP in which extinction is forbidden. These exact calculations also pinpoint the breakdown of the MCA as the death rate is increased.     

Using statistics to design and estimate vital rates in matrix population models for a perennial herb

Matrix population models are widely used to assess population status and to inform management decisions. Despite existing theories for building such models, model construction is often partially based on expert opinion. So far, model structure has received relatively little attention, although it may affect estimates of population dynamics. Here, we assessed the consequences of two published matrix structures (a 4 × 4 matrix based on expert opinion and a 10 × 10 matrix based on statistical modeling) for estimates of vital rates and stochastic population dynamics of the long-lived herb Astragalus scaphoides. We explored the ways in which choice of model structure alters the accuracy (i.e., mean) and precision (i.e., variance) of predicted population dynamics. We found that model structure had a negligible effect on the accuracy and precision of vital rates and stochastic stage distribution. However, the 10 × 10 matrix produced lower estimates of stochastic population growth rates than the 4 × 4 matrix, and more accurately predicted the observed trends in population abundance for three out of four study populations. Moreover, estimates of realized variation in population growth rate due to fluctuations in population stage structure over time were occasionally sensitive to matrix structure, suggesting differential roles of transient dynamics. Our study indicates that statistical modeling for choosing categories in matrix models might be preferable over expert opinion to accurately predict population trends and can provide a more objective way for model construction when the biological knowledge of the species is limited.     

Feeding ecology of central Baltic Sea herring and sprat

A unique dataset of stomach contents sampled between 1977 and 1999 in the central Baltic Sea was used to perform a comprehensive study of the feeding ecology of Central Baltic herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus . Both fish species were mainly preying upon calanoid copepods with Pseudocalanus sp. dominating the diet of herring, whereas sprat generally preferred Temora longicornis . Sprat preyed upon older copepodite stages, indicating size‐selective particulate feeding, whereas herring additionally fed on smaller copepodite stages, indicating occasional low food supply inducing filter‐feeding. Additional food sources other than copepods were mysids in winter and autumn for medium to large herring, as well as cladocerans for sprat in spring and summer, determined by the seasonal occurrence of these plankton species. Seasonally the highest feeding activity of both fishes species occurred in spring and summer, the main reproductive periods of calanoid copepods. The most important food item for both predators in spring was Pseudocalanus sp. In summer sprat switched to T. longicornis and Acartia spp. Since the late 1970s, the total stomach fullness decreased and the fraction of empty stomachs increased. In parallel the amount of Pseudocalanus sp. in the diets of both fish species decreased. Further, a considerable dietary overlap between both species in spring indicated considerable competition for food resources, especially due to an enlarged sprat stock. The results of this study support the hypothesis that growth reductions observed in Baltic herring and sprat are due to combination of a change in food availability and an increase in density‐dependent competition.     

长江流域生态退捕渔民生计脆弱性评价及生计风险预测

渔民作为长江十年禁渔的参与主体,其后续生计发展将直接决定此生态保护政策的实施成效。在重构非自愿生态移民生计脆弱性评价体系的基础上,结合长江流域重点禁渔水域典型退捕渔民的抽样数据,测度渔民生计脆弱性指数(LVI)并找出影响后续生计恢复的主要障碍因子,最后跨领域的引入支持向量回归(SVR)预测模型动态分析了不同区域渔户生计脆弱性的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)渔民弃船上岸后呈现出生计脆弱性的比例较高,但不同类型区域间存在明显差异,其中内湖保护区最高,干流非保护区次之而干流保护区最低;(2)敏感性维度在诱发渔民生计脆弱性上起着主导作用,即个体禀赋比安置区条件更为重要,特别是成员年龄大但无基本社保兜底,受教育程度低且"双转"难的渔民家庭更易陷入生计困境;(3)自然和金融资本是推动渔民生计恢复的主要生计资本,而阻碍渔民生计脆弱性降低的共性因子主要有上岸后的收支失衡,社会支持不足及过分依赖原有生计方式等,同时各区域在脆弱性各维度上还有特殊的障碍因子;(4)推动安置区经济社会发展和家庭转产增收后,并不一定能确保缓解未来五年中的渔户生计脆弱性程度,上岸后完成社会融入并有效降低生产生活成本也至关重要,而干流保护区则还需加强人力资本建设,否则后续将面临极高的返贫风险;(5)长江临近区域的同类渔民生计脆弱性现状、面临的生计风险、后续生计恢复的进程具有一定的相似性和规律性,生计监测和帮扶政策可进行协同统筹。     

再议中国近海小黄鱼种群的划分问题

以往认为,中国近海小黄鱼可划分为3个种群.本研究从地理隔离、数量动态、形态解剖,分子遗传学和海洋水文等不同方面,重新审视了我国近海小黄鱼（Larimichthys polyactis Bleeker）种群的划分问题.研究表明：中国近海小黄鱼仅仅存在两个种群,即黄海南部和东海小黄鱼种群及渤海和黄海北部小黄鱼种群.主要证据有三：其一,分析1965年至今小黄鱼不同种群形态解剖学和分子遗传学重要文献,发现这些文献的结果仅仅支持黄海南部和东海小黄鱼是一个种群的结论;其二,依据1971-1982年我国10多个主要渔业公司小黄鱼捕捞统计资料,黄海南部和东海的小黄鱼在地理分布上几乎不存在隔离的现象.在冬季外海,黄海南部和东海小黄鱼栖息于同一个越冬场.进入春季后,它们从该越冬场分别向舟山渔场、鱼山渔场和吕泗渔场产卵洄游.同时,东海南部近海越冬场的小黄鱼向北作产卵洄游,在舟山渔场汇入外海来的小黄鱼鱼群中.从5-8月,黄海南部至东海仅存在一个小黄鱼索饵群体.而黄海北部和渤海小黄鱼群体与上述群体存在明显的地理隔离;其三,黄海南部和东海,近年来小黄鱼产量增长趋势一致,而同期的渤海和黄海北部小黄鱼资源量恢复不大.     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

Specific gravity and vertical distribution of sprat eggs in the Baltic Sea

During peak spawning of sprat Sprattus sprattus in the Baltic Sea in May–June egg specific gravity averaged ± s . d . 1·00858 ± 0·00116 g cm⁻³ but was significantly higher in the beginning and significantly lower towards the end of the spawning season. A close relationship was found between egg diameter and egg specific gravity ( r ² = 0·71). This relationship, however, changed during the spawning season indicating that some other factor was involved causing the decrease in specific gravity during the spawning period. The vertical egg distribution changed during the spawning season: eggs were distributed mainly in the deep layers early in the season, occurred in and above the permanent halocline during peak spawning, and above the halocline towards the end of the spawning season. Consequently, poor oxygen conditions in the deep layers and low temperatures in layers between the halocline and the developing thermocline may affect egg development. Thus, opportunities for egg development vary over the spawning season and among spawning areas, and depending on frequency of saline water inflows into the Baltic Sea and severity of winters, between years.     

Extinction and invasion do not add up in noisy dynamic ecological networks

Species extinction and invasion concurrently affect the composition and properties of ecological communities, yet their effects have largely been studied separately, and with more focus on species and ecological functional groups than the whole-community level. We adopted a dynamic ecological network approach to compare the effects of simultaneous single-species primary extinction and invasion on a set of ecosystem metrics to the effects of extinction and invasion in isolation. We also investigated the relationship between the impact and reversibility of extinction or invasion through reintroduction or eradication, respectively. We used Monte Carlo simulations of bioenergetic ecological network models that combined trophic and mutualistic interactions, contained either prey-dependent or ratio-dependent trophic functional responses, and incorporated either white or pink environmental stochasticity. As the separate extinction or invasion impact increased, the simultaneous extinction–invasion impact increased but was decreasingly additive of the two separate impacts, across all ecosystem metrics. Greater extinction or invasion impact was associated with lower reversibility for most model types and ecosystem metrics. There were also systematic differences between models with prey- and ratio-dependent functional responses. These results highlight the importance of considering the combined effects of extinction and invasion in ecological studies, management and restoration.     

Genetic variability of anchovy in the Azov-Black Sea basin

The intraspecific structure of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) was studied on the basis of mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (cytb) fragment variability in 84 individuals from seven localities of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The data on haplotype and nucleotide diversity and the values of neutrality tests suggested expansive growth of anchovy populations in the Azov-Black Sea basin. All samples from anchovy populations demonstrated a high level of haplotype diversity (Hd = 0.962). Two dominant haplotypes were identified, the frequencies of which were not directional, and they were present in all localities. Sequence analysis of the mitochondrial cytb gene fragment showed no differentiation between the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea subspecies.     

Modelling population exposure-response functions for use in environmental risk assessment

Effective environmental management requires accurate prediction of the probable individual, population, and ecosystem responses associated with environmental hazards. While much is known about the short-term physiological impacts of toxicants at the individual level, little is known about the long-term responses of populations. This occurs, in part, because of the costs and difficulties associated with completing long-term studies. In the absence of such field data it is argued that modelling both bridges the existing information gap and provides a credible means of predicting long-term population responses. An individuals-based Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population dynamics model, adjusted to include laboratory-derived acute toxicity data, is used to measure recovery time in a population subjected to concentrations and durations of copper exposure characteristic of an accidental release of mine tailings. Selected recovery criteria are proposed and discussed in terms of their suitability for use in environmental risk assessment. The resulting model data are used to estimate population exposure-response functions and, for purposes of environmental risk assessment, to describe the cumulative probability distribution ofin-situ environmental damage. The output of the model suggests a recovery time of 15 to 20 years and significant increases in the variability of post-perturbation population levels.     

Is tuna critically endangered? Extinction risk of a large and overexploited population

In 1994, (the World Conservation Union (IUCN) made new quantitative criteria for Red List Categories. Among these, criterion A is based on the reduction rate of population size and is not linked to absolute population size. This is because for most unexploited threatened species absolute population size is completely uncertain. Criterion E is directly concerned with the extinction probability within a specified period. Criterion A is applied to marine fish species, including tuna, which are exploited by commercial fishing. However, for many fish that are commercially exploited, the absolute number of mature individuals and the variance in its yearly reduction rate are often known. In addition, extinction probability depends on absolute population size. There is an inconsistency between criterion A and E when population size is large enough. This is the case for tuna. In this paper, we propose a new criterion for threatened species based on the average reduction rate and the current population size. Criterion A is consistent with criterion E as long as the population size is very small. We also propose a method for estimating the extinction risk of tuna based on the variance of the reduction rate. We investigated the sensitivity in the uncertain parameters involved in the models and concluded that tuna is unlikely to be listed as critically endangered but that southern bluefin tuna may be listed as vulnerable.     

Population responses to natural and human-mediated disturbances: assessing the vulnerability of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius)

Vulnerable wildlife populations can face a suite of anthropogenic activities that may threaten their persistence. However, human‐mediated disturbances are likely to be coincident with natural disturbances that also influence a population. This synergism is often neglected in population projection models. Here I evaluate the effects of natural (rainfall fluctuation) and human disturbances (habitat loss and unregulated hunting) using a multi‐matrix environmental state population model for the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). By evaluating each disturbance type (natural and human) alone and then together, I explicitly consider the importance of incorporating realistic environmental variability into population projection models. The model population was most strongly affected by moderate habitat loss, which yielded the highest probability of crossing the risk thresholds over the 60 year time period, although these probabilities were relatively low (≤0.31). However, the likelihood of crossing the risk thresholds were two to five times as high when human‐mediated and natural disturbances were considered together. When these probabilities were calculated per year of the simulation, the results suggested that even relatively mild human disturbances, when considered in conjunction with realistic natural disturbance, resulted in a high probability (>0.50) of substantial declines within decades. The model highlights the importance of integrating realistic natural disturbances into population models, and suggests that, despite locally abundant populations, protected hippopotamus populations may decline over the next 60 years in response to a combination of environmental fluctuations and human‐mediated threats.     

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. ( Ecology Letters , 10 , 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.