Implications of behavioral change for the resilience of pastoral systems—Lessons from an agent-based model

In many dryland regions, traditional pastoral land use strategies are exposed to various drivers such as demographic or socio-economic change. This may lead to an adjustment of livelihood strategies and behavior of pastoral households, involving a change in attitudes toward livestock, pasture condition and social norms. We use an agent-based model to examine long-term social-ecological consequences and implications for system resilience of such behavioral changes (e.g., giving up a social norm). The model captures feedback between pastures, livestock and household livelihood in a common property grazing system. We systematically compare three stylized household behavioral types (traditional, maximizer and satisficer) that differ in their preferences for livestock, their compliance with social norms on pasture resting and how they are influenced by the behavior of others. Simulation results show that the traditional, norm-abiding household type maintains the pasture condition, provided that overall household numbers do not exceed a critical threshold. In contrast, a switch to a maximizer type that ignores norms may lead to long-term pasture degradation and livestock loss, pushing the system to an undesirable state. A change toward a new satisficing household type that constrains its herd size while diversifying its income sources can lead to improved pasture conditions and higher total livestock numbers, even with increased household numbers. We conclude that changes in household behavior have strong implications for long-term social-ecological system dynamics and have to be considered to assess the resilience of pastoral common property systems.     

Why Herd Size Matters – Mitigating the Effects of Livestock Crashes

Analysing the effect of pastoral risk management strategies provides insights into a system of subsistence that have persevered in marginal areas for hundreds to thousands of years and may shed light into the future of around 200 million households in the face of climate change. This study investigated the efficiency of herd accumulation as a buffer strategy by analysing changes in livestock holdings during an environmental crisis in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway. We found a positive relationship between: (1) pre- and post-collapse herd size; and (2) pre-collapse herd size and the number of animals lost during the collapse, indicating that herd accumulation is an effective but costly strategy. Policies that fail to incorporate the risk-beneficial aspect of herd accumulation will have a limited effect and may indeed fail entirely. In the context of climate change, official policies that incorporate pastoral risk management strategies may be the only solution for ensuring their continued existence.     

Modeling rendille household herd composition

Previous analysis of Rendille household herd composition revealed a transition from camel to cattle ownership for sedentary impoverished Rendille pastoralists of northern Kenya. In an attempt to delineate determinants of livestock holdings, logistic regression analysis of 112 household herds from the Rendille settlement of Korr, Marsabit District, Kenya was undertaken. Results indicated that household wealth, measured in present livestock holdings, past drought losses, and livestock sales, formed better predictors of cattle ownership than did household characteristics pertaining to labor supply, wage earners, age-set membership, and birth order of household head. These results are discussed in light of pastoral strategies designed to minimize risk.     

Pastoral Herding Strategies and Governmental Management Objectives: Predation Compensation as a Risk Buffering Strategy in the Saami Reindeer Husbandry

Previously it has been found that an important risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway is the accumulation of large herds of reindeer as this increases long-term household viability. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how official policies, such as economic compensation for livestock losses, can influence pastoral strategies. This study investigated the effect of received predation compensation on individual husbandry units’ future herd size. The main finding in this study is that predation compensation had a positive effect on husbandry units’ future herd size. The effect of predation compensation, however, was nonlinear in some years, indicating that predation compensation had a positive effect on future herd size only up to a certain threshold whereby adding additional predation compensation had little effect on future herd size. More importantly, the effect of predation compensation was positive after controlling for reindeer density, indicating that for a given reindeer density husbandry units receiving more predation compensation performed better (measured as the size of future herds) compared to husbandry units receiving less compensation.     

Women in pastoral production

This concluding article aims to review, on a general level, some of the issues relating to the place of women in pastoral production. It begins by a discussion of the extent to which “pastoralism” as such is a valid point of departure for analysis and then proceeds to look at the pastoral working process from the perspective of females. It is argued that a proper understanding of pastoral productive relations must be based on a recognition of the dual nature of productivity—in terms of utilities and in terms of herd generation. The complex intertwining of different labour inputs leaves room for the cultural underevaluation of women's work. Female rights to livestock and the access that women have to other resources that can give them bargaining power are then discussed. The article ends with a consideration of the direction of present changes in the lives of pastoral women.     

Nutritional Consequences of Wealth Differentials in East African Pastoralists: The Case of the Datoga of Northern Tanzania

Among African pastoralists evidence that wealth is associated with other measures of household success is scant and the significance of wealth differentials for family welfare remains poorly understood. Predictions that wealth in livestock is associated with increased adequacy of household food supply and with improved child nutrition are tested with longitudinal data on herd size, household composition, food supply, and anthropometric status collected in 1992 for a sample of traditional Datoga households (n = 20) living in the Eyasi basin in northern Tanzania. Although a majority subsisted below poverty cutoffs estimated for east African pastoral populations, there was large variation among households in measures of wealth and resource availability. Individuals in relatively wealthy households did not appear to benefit either in terms of adequacy of household food supply or in terms of average growth performance of young children. Theoretical and methodological challenges in the study of the relationship between wealth and health in nomadic pastoralists are discussed.     

Reconsidering the Role of Absentee Herd Owners: A View from Mongolia

Since the privatization of livestock in 1992, rates of absentee ownership of livestock have increased sharply in Mongolia. Unlike other documented instances of absentee herding in pastoral societies, absentee herd ownership has few detrimental ecological or social impacts in Mongolia. Rather, the relationship between absentee herd owners and herders may be viewed as a revitalized institution, with links to customary patterns of urban-rural exchange, emerging to meet the needs of both herders and town-dwellers during the transition from a socialist planned economy to a free market economy. Absentee herding in Mongolia differs from absentee and contract herding accounts from Africa and the Middle East in its continuing emphasis on subsistence rather than speculative investment and accumulation. Other important distinctions include: (1) absentee owners and herders are usually kin or friends; (2) herders tend their own private herds in addition to absenteeowned animals;(3)few ethnic, caste, or class differences existbetween herders and absentee herd owners; and (4) herders from all wealth strata tend absentee-owned animals. Policies to restrict or regulate absentee livestock ownership must be carefully considered in the Mongolian context, making clear distinctions between informal, mutually beneficial subsistence-driven arrangements among kin and friends, and more formal investment-driven contracts between businesses or investors and herders.     

Absentee herd owners and part-time pastoralists: The political economy of resource use in northern Kenya

The prevalence of absentee herd ownership in Africa's pastoral areas is increasing. Its presence has important implications both for local resource management systems and for research programs that address pastoral ecology and related topics. This paper examines patterns of absentee herd ownership in the Baringo District of northern Kenya. This region has been the source of much debate regarding herder mismanagement of range lands. Three categories of absentee herd owners are discussed in the paper: (1) ranchers, (2) livestock traders, and (3) townsmen. It is suggested that the blame for some of the apparent resource mismanagement in the region may lie more with actors in these categories than with the pastoralists themselves. Data collected during an 18-month period in 1980–1981 on pastoral ecology, grazing patterns, and tenure institutions are presented in support of the argument. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of contemporary resource management strategies in pastoral Africa, emphasizing that: (1) the Baringo case is not an isolated anomaly, and (2) a new orientation toward pastoral studies is warranted.     

Managing Variability: Herding Strategies in Communal Rangelands of Semiarid Namaqualand, South Africa

Herd mobility is a tool for managing environmental variability in African pastoral systems. This study examines the monthly mobility patterns of 24 herds over six years in the 20,000 ha communal area of Paulshoek, Namaqualand, and assesses the social, economic, and ecological factors affecting the livestock movement of individual herds and all herds combined. When the mobility pattern of all herds was considered, no seasonal or between-year differences in response to rainfall were evident. An analysis of individual herd mobility patterns showed that half of the herds were relatively sedentary over the study period while the other half were regularly mobile. Although herders used mobility to manage their herds in the unpredictable semiarid environment, their daily decisions were often made in response to their social, economic, or personal situations. There was no significant difference in livestock production between herding strategies, but sedentary herders had a greater localized impact on the rangeland than mobile herders. Our analysis suggests that non-environmental factors play a significant role in herd mobility and may consequently affect the efficiency of livestock production and environmental management.     

甘南牧区草畜平衡优化方案与管理决策

利用Matlab 7.9软件的多目标规划方法,以甘南牧区2008年及以前的草地畜牧业动态监测资料和社会经济发展调查统计数据为基础,以维持草畜平衡、优化畜群结构和保护草地生态环境为总目标,综合考虑牧区畜群结构优化、牧业生产目标、草畜动态平衡、区域社会经济收益状况和生态环境保护5个方面的约束条件,研究了规划期(2009-2011年)甘南牧区草地畜牧业发展的优化方案及管理对策,对比分析了减畜和增畜2种优化方案在畜群结构、牲畜总增率、净增率、商品率、出栏率、农牧民纯收益等方面的数量变化特征,提出甘南牧区草畜平衡优化方案及管理决策。研究结果表明,减畜优化方案是实现上述目标的根本途径。具体措施包括:1)适度调整牲畜数量,改良品种,优化畜群结构;2)调整农作物播种面积及结构,增加人工草地种植面积,提高补饲水平;3)稳定天然林草地面积,维护牧区生态环境; 4)增强畜牧业生产效益,提高出栏率;5)严格控制人口数量,加强国家政策调控机制。     

Pastoral Sedentarization and Its Effects on Children’s Diet,Health, and Growth Among Rendille of Northern Kenya

Throughout the arid regions of Africa formerly mobile pastoral populations are becoming sedentary. Although pastoral sedentarization is encouraged by international development agencies and national governments as solutions to food insecurity, poor health care, and problems of governance, it has not been demonstrated that abandoning the pastoral way of life, and particularly childrens access to milk and other livestock products, is beneficial to the health and well-being of pastoral populations. This paper reports the results of a 3-year study of one pastoral and four settled Rendille communities of northern Kenya based on data from 17 repeated bimonthly surveys of childhood dietary, growth, and morbidity patterns and household level economic strata. Bivariate analysis of 5,535 measurements from 488 children from birth to 9 years revealed that age-specific height and weight measurements for the pastoral community are uniformly heavier and taller than children from the sedentary villages. Multivariate analysis using Generalized Estimating Equations methodology showed that the amount of milk consumed was always a statistically significant determinant of child weight and height growth, regardless of drought or non-drought times and breastfeeding status. Other significant determinants of child growth include morbidity and poverty, both associated with sedentary communities. These results indicate that international development assistance should not neglect improvements in livestock production and support of pastoral movements in Africas arid lands.     

Changing Access to Labor,Pastures, and Knowledge: The Extensification of Grazing Management in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa

The broader ecological and social contexts within which livestock husbandry of Sudano-Sahelian West Africa operates have changed significantly over the past thirty years. This study concerns how: (1) these broader trends have affected the quantity and quality of labor investments into livestock herding; and (2) the ecological and animal nutritional implications of observed variation in labor investments into herding. The study was conducted in a 500 km² area of western Niger using a combination of qualitative interviews of herders and herd managers, household composition surveys, herd composition monitoring, grazing management monitoring and georeferenced vegetation and livestock grazing itinerary data. Statistical analyses were performed using a two-staged approach: (1) analysis of the factors affecting the allocation of labor to herding at the level of the managing household; and (2) analysis of the effect of herd characteristics, season, microgeography and herders’ social position on herders’ effort and the nutritional and ecological impacts of these efforts. The results of these analyses support the conclusion that the changing regional context of livestock husbandry leads to a reduction in labor (quantity and quality) investment or an “extensification” of herding with significant implications for livestock productivity and the environment.

Pastoralism Under Pressure: Tracking System Change in Southern Ethiopia

While economic development has proven elusive in African pastoral systems, change is pervasive. The majority of the Kajiado Maasai, for example, have endured marked declines in per capita livestock holdings and other aspects of human welfare over the past 50 years. We surveyed 317 Borana households to see if similar patterns occurred in southern Ethiopia, and our predictions were largely confirmed. Once viewed as the epitome of sustainable pastoralism, the Borana system now confronts numerous challenges. Decline in per capita cattle holdings has spurred household-level diversification to include maize cultivation and camel husbandry in some areas. Resource pressure has encouraged local annexation of some formerly common access grazing areas. Economic links between pastoral households and local towns still appear rare, however. Our results suggest that patterns of internally induced socioeconomic change due to population pressure in such semiarid systems are broadly predictable, and that development intervention priorities should reflect system dynamics and address emerging issues. A focus on improving risk management by facilitating household economic diversification and restoring some aspects of opportunistic resource use may be the most appropriate development options among the Ethiopian Boran at this time.     

Drought and recovery: Livestock dynamics among the Ngisonyoka Turkana of Kenya

From 1980–1985, the Turkana District of Kenya experienced both drought and above average rainfall. The effects of a 2-year drought on the livestock population of the nomadic pastoral Ngisonyoka are discussed. Detailed data on mortality rates and offtake are presented for the animals of four herd owners, and the recovery process is followed for the 5-year period for one herd owner. It is concluded that during the drought, 63% of the cattle, 45% of the camels, and 55% of the small stock left the sample herds. The livestock population of one herd had recovered to pre-drought levels 3 years after the drought.     

An Integrated Approach to Modeling Grazing Pressure in Pastoral Systems: The Case of the Logone Floodplain (Cameroon)

The discussion about the impact of pastoral systems on ecosystems has been profoundly shaped by Hardin’s “tragedy of the commons” argument that held pastoralists responsible for overgrazing the range. Recent studies have shown that grazing ecosystems are much more complex and dynamic than was previously assumed and that pastoralists adaptively manage these systems. However, we still have little understanding how everyday herding affects ecosystems at the landscape level. We conducted a study of daily herd movements and grazing strategies in a mobile pastoral system in the Logone floodplain, Cameroon. We integrated GPS/GIS technology, video recordings of animal behavior, and ethnographic methods to develop a more accurate measurement of grazing pressure that takes into account both livestock densities and grazing behavior. We used the resulting grazing pressure data to evaluate existing conceptual models of grazing pressure at a landscape level. We found that models that predict that grazing pressure is skewed towards the direction of water most accurately reflect the situation in the Logone floodplain in the dry season. However, we found that the higher grazing pressure is not only the result of a higher density of cattle but also a change in the grazing behavior of animals after watering. Finally, we caution that the models of grazing pressure in the dry season cannot simply be extrapolated to the landscape level because mobile pastoralists do not remain in one central place.     

Drought and economic differentiation among Ariaal pastoralists of Kenya

This paper examines the effects of the 1984 drought upon household wealth differences in a community of Ariaal pastoralists of northern Kenya. The database consists of 1985 post-drought livestock counts and informants' statements of species-specific drought loss, compared to 1976 livestock counts on the same 38 households. The analysis confirms the hypothesis that the drought resulted in increased household wealth inequalities. It is suggested that the combination of differential herd growth, differential participation in the cash market, and differential loss to the drought has contributed to a polarization within Ariaal of rich and poor, resulting in rural proletarianization and urban migration.     

Livestock predation in the Bale Mountains,Ethiopia

In the Web Valley of the Bale Mountains National Park, the pastoral people suffer from livestock predation by wild carnivores. A total of 704 livestock were reported to be killed by wild carnivores over a 3‐year period, causing a loss of potential revenue of 12 USD per year per household. Reported annual predation rates equated to 1.4% of the livestock population of the study area. Spotted hyaenas were responsible for most livestock predation (57%), followed by leopards (18%), common jackals (16%) and servals (9%). Hyaenas killed all livestock types (horses, donkeys, mules, cattle, goats and sheep) whilst leopards, common jackals and servals killed mostly goats and sheep. A survey of 362 households revealed that the pastoral people keep dogs to protect livestock from carnivores. During 250 nights of observation in the ten settlements, pastoralists were alerted to the presence of hyaenas on 80 occasions by the barking of their dogs. Such tradition of keeping dogs presents a threat to the persistence of the endangered Ethiopian wolf through diseases transmission. Given the frequency of carnivore attacks on livestock, it is desirable to develop alternative livestock protection methods that both minimize livestock losses and reduce the risk of disease transmission to Ethiopian wolves.     

Development of livestock production in the tropics: farm and farmers’ perspectives

Because of an increasing demand for animal-source foods, an increasing desire to reduce poverty and an increasing need to reduce the environmental impact of livestock production, tropical farming systems with livestock must increase their productivity. An important share of the global human and livestock populations are found within smallholder mixed-crop–livestock systems, which should, therefore, contribute significantly towards this increase in livestock production. The present paper argues that increased livestock production in smallholder mixed-crop–livestock systems faces many constraints at the level of the farm and the value chain. The present paper aims to describe and explain the impact of increased production from the farm and farmers’ perspective, in order to understand the constraints for increased livestock production. A framework is presented that links farming systems to livestock value chains. It is concluded that farming systems that pass from subsistence to commercial livestock production will: (1) shift from rural to urban markets; (2) become part of a different value chain (with lower prices, higher demands for product quality and increased competition from peri-urban producers and imports); and (3) have to face changes in within-farm mechanisms and crop–livestock relationships. A model study showed that feed limitation, which is common in tropical farming systems with livestock, implies that maximum herd output is achieved with small herd sizes, leaving low-quality feeds unutilised. Maximal herd output is not achieved at maximal individual animal output. Having more animals than required for optimal production – which is often the case as a larger herd size supports non-production functions of livestock, such as manure production, draught, traction and capital storage – goes at the expense of animal-source food output. Improving low-quality feeds by treatment allows keeping more animals while maintaining the same level of production. Ruminant methane emission per kg of milk produced is mainly determined by the level of milk production per cow. Part of the methane emissions, however, should be attributed to the non-production functions of ruminants. It was concluded that understanding the farm and farmers’ perceptions of increased production helps with the understanding of productivity increase constraints and adds information to that reported in the literature at the level of technology, markets and institutions.     

Biophysical Variability and Pastoral Rights to Resources: West African Transhumance Revisited

This paper focuses on a conundrum that has dominated the literature on pastoral mobility and institutions in dryland regions of the world, where livestock production is the main livelihood system. High spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and forage resources are seen to require flexible rules and porous social boundaries to facilitate pastoral mobility—characteristics that run counter to conventional views of the requirements for effective common property institutions. We seek to explore this paradox by investigating the spatiotemporal variability of forage availability (using satellite derived vegetation indices as a proxy for green forage) in four transhumance zones (“transhumance sheds”) in Mali, West Africa. For each transhumance shed, three characteristics with important institutional implications are evaluated over an eleven-year period between 2000 and 2010: the inter-annual variability of forage phenology, seasonal changes in connectivity of green forage patches, and the degree to which key forage locations exist in the form of consistently early green-up and/or late senescence. Periods of vegetation green-up and senescence, which determine the timing of transhumant livestock movements, are found to be sufficiently regular from year to year to be governed by conventional institutions. Seasonal changes in the north-south connectivity of green patches are sufficiently rapid for customary systems of sharing of pasture information to be effective (rather than more technologically sophisticated systems of pasture information). Moreover, transhumance sheds contain key pastoral forage sites, which because of their consistently early greening or late senescence, are strong candidates for territorial protection from alternative land uses such as agriculture. These findings support local herders’ views of transhumance as composed of regular patterns of herd movements along prescribed corridors between key pastoral sites. The seasonal regularity of key pastoral resources has been obscured by an overemphasis on environmental unpredictability that characterizes dryland systems at certain spatial and temporal scales. This paper suggests that policies directed at improving pastoral resource governance must focus instead on securing pastoralists’ access rights to movement corridors, specific pastures and water points.     

The herd,a source of flexibility for livestock farming systems faced with uncertainties?

'Adapt to endure' has become a necessity in agriculture, but the means to do so remain largely undefined. The aim of this literature review is to analyse how the herd contributes to a livestock farming system's capacity to adapt to a changing world and evolve when the future is uncertain. We identify six categories of elements linked to the herd, called 'sources of flexibility', that are used to manage perturbation. The first three are: using the animal's adaptive capacities, using the diversity of species and breeds and combining the diversity of animal products. The last three are: organising the mobility of animals and livestock farmers, juggling the herd numbers and mastering the balance between productivity and herd survival. These sources of flexibility are described in the literature by studying the different ways in which they are used. For example, the 'juggle herd numbers' source is described by volume, categories of animals, type of transfer, such as births, purchases or gifts, and timing of use, especially linked to the timing of the perturbation. Identified studies also compare or rank sources and analyse the connections between them. The flexibility framework (management science) is used for this analysis according to the levels of organisation of a livestock farming system: a strategic level referring to long-term options and to the capacity to modify the system structure, and an operational level referring to adjustment decisions during the productive cycle, the presence or absence of intervention by the livestock farmer, and the time scales involved. We conclude that the decision to use one or another source (in terms of modalities, alternatives, scheduling and combinations) is made according to the production objectives, the structural means, the type/frequency/intensity of perturbations and the context/environment. Consequently, the flexibility of a livestock farming system cannot be assessed in absolute terms. Enhancing flexibility needs management of all elements and scales involved (and not only the herd), and requires diversity to be organised at different scales.