Does Temporal Variation in Predation Risk Influence the Intensity of Antipredator Responses? A Test of the Risk Allocation Hypothesis

Temporal variation in predation risk may fundamentally influence antipredator responses of prey animals. To maximize lifetime fitness, prey must be able to optimize energy gain and minimize predation risk, and responses to current levels of risk may be influenced by background levels of risk. A ‘risk allocation’ model has recently been proposed to predict the intensity of antipredator responses that should occur as predation risk varies over time. Prey animals from high‐risk environments should respond to predators with relatively low intensities of antipredator behaviour because long periods of antipredator behaviour may result in unacceptable decreases in levels of foraging activity. Moreover, animals that are under frequent risk should devote more energy to foraging during brief pulses of safety compared with animals under infrequent attack. In this study, we experimentally tested the risk allocation hypothesis. We exposed juvenile rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, to three levels of risk (high, moderate and low) crossed with two levels of temporal variation (exposed to risk three times a day and once a day). In accordance with the model, we found that trout exposed to risky situations more frequently responded with significantly less intense antipredator behaviour than trout exposed to risk infrequently. The intensity of response of trout exposed to moderate risk three times a day decreased to levels similar to situations of no risk. However, in contrast to the second prediction of the model, animals under frequent risk were not more active during periods of safety compared with animals under infrequent risk. Although behaviour in the face of predation risk was dependent on the broader temporal context in which risk varied, the specific predictions of the risk allocation model were only partly supported.     

Does Breastfeeding Help to Reduce the Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity? A Propensity Score Analysis of Data from the KiGGS Study

BackgroundCurrent studies suggest that the beneficial effect of breastfeeding on overweight and obesity may have been largely overestimated. We examined the relationship between >4 months of full breastfeeding and overweight/obesity in children living in Germany.MethodsWe analyzed retrospectively collected data on breastfeeding from children aged 3–17 years who participated in the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS baseline study) between 2003 and 2006 (n = 13163). To minimize confounding, we applied propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression analyses to estimate the effect of breastfeeding on childhood overweight and obesity.ResultsAdjusted analyses of the matched dataset (n = 8034) indicated that children who were breastfed for <4 months had a significant reduction in the odds of overweight (OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.71–0.92]) and obesity (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.61–0.92]) compared to children who were not breastfed or who were breastfed for a shorter duration. Further analyses stratified by age group showed that the association was strongest in children aged 7–10 years (OR 0.67 [95% CI 0.53–0.84] for overweight and OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.39–0.81] for obesity), while no significant effect could be seen in other age groups.DiscussionOur findings support the hypothesis that breastfeeding does have a beneficial effect on childhood overweight and obesity, although the effect seems to be strongest in children of primary school age.     

Does Tenure Matter? A Comparative Analysis of Agricultural Expansion in the Mosquitia Forest Corridor

This article compares how public protection of forests and common-property forest institutions serve to control outside encroachment into frontier forests in Honduras and Nicaragua. The article combines institutional analysis with ethnographically based fieldwork and analysis of land-cover images to evaluate how property-rights arrangements influence monitoring, enforcement, and compliance with rules to restrict agricultural expansion in two biosphere reserves in the Mosquitia Corridor. Findings show that territorial demarcation and common-property rights are important components for frontier forest conservation. In areas with weak enforcement mechanisms and heavy reliance on social norms over official regulatory measures, the findings suggest that the perceived legitimacy of tenure arrangements and their respective land-use rules are fundamental to controlling the agricultural frontier.

Does Clinical Depression Affect the Accuracy of Self‐reported Height and Weight in Obese Women?

Objective: Recent research from a self‐report survey showed a strong association between obesity and clinical depression in women. The present analysis assessed whether differential bias in self‐reports of height and weight as a function of depression influences the apparent strength of the association. Methods: Accuracy of self‐reported height and weight was assessed in 250 obese (mean BMI=38.7 kg/m²) women, 135 of whom met the American Psychiatric Association DSM‐IV diagnostic criteria for clinical depression. Results: Depressed and non‐depressed women underreported their weight by 1.5 and 1.2 kg, respectively. They underreported their height by 0.002 and 0.003 m, respectively. Discussion: Bias in self‐reports of body weight and height is similar in depressed and non‐depressed obese women. The underreporting of weight in both groups is similar in magnitude to that seen in normal weight women. Thus, using self‐reports of height and weight seems unlikely to bias estimates of the association between obesity and clinical depression in women.     

Does Kin Recognition and Sib-Mating Avoidance Limit the Risk of Genetic Incompatibility in a Parasitic Wasp?

Background

When some combinations of maternal and paternal alleles have a detrimental effect on offspring fitness, females should be able to choose mates on the basis of their genetic compatibility. In numerous Hymenoptera, the sex of an individual depends of the allelic combination at a specific locus (single-locus Complementary Sex Determination), and in most of these species individuals that are homozygous at this sexual locus develop into diploid males with zero fitness.

Methods and Findings

In this paper, we tested the hypothesis of genetic incompatibility avoidance by investigating sib-mating avoidance in the solitary wasp parasitoid, Venturia canescens. In the context of mate choice we show, for the first time in a non-social hymenopteran species, that females can avoid mating with their brothers through kin recognition. In “no-choice” tests, the probability a female will mate with an unrelated male is twice as high as the chance of her mating with her brothers. In contrast, in choice tests in small test arenas, no kin discrimination effect was observed. Further experiments with male extracts demonstrate that chemical cues emanating from related males influence the acceptance rate of unrelated males.

Conclusions

Our results are compatible with the genetic incompatibility hypothesis. They suggest that the female wasps recognize sibs on the basis of a chemical signature carried or emitted by males possibly using a “self-referent phenotype matching” mechanism.     

Does Testosterone Therapy Increase the Risk of Prostate Cancer?

ObjectiveTo review factors affecting use of testosterone therapy for hypogonadism including the persistent controversial link between testosterone therapy and prostate cancer.MethodsWe reviewed studies investigating the relationship between testosterone therapy and prostate cancer progression and summarized strategies for hypogonadism management and prostate monitoring.ResultsTrials of up to 36 months in length and longitudinal studies consistently fail to demonstrate an increased prostate cancer risk associated with increased testosterone levels. No evidence of an associated relationship between exogenous testosterone therapy and prostate cancer has emerged from clinical trials or adverse event reports. It does not appear that exogenous testosterone accumulates in the prostate or provokes major biologic change in the prostate gland. In addition, preliminary evidence indicates that low endogenous testosterone may confer an increased risk of prostate cancer.ConclusionsMounting evidence demonstrates that there is a lack of association between testosterone therapy and prostate cancer progression. Testosterone therapy may be prescribed for men for whom it was once not considered. Careful monitoring of patients with hypogonadism who are receiving testosterone therapy is imperative. Well-designed, large-scale prospective clinical trials are necessary to adequately address prostate safety in hypogonadal men receiving testosterone therapy. (Endocr Pract. 2008;14:904-911)     

Does Adhesive Capsulitis of the Shoulder Increase the Risk of Stroke? A Population-Based Propensity Score-Matched Follow-Up Study

Objectives

A previous population-based study reported an increased risk of stroke after the occurrence of adhesive capsulitis of the shoulder (ACS), but there were substantial imbalances in the distribution of age and pre-existing vascular risk factors between subjects with ACS and without ACS, which might lead to a confounded association between ACS and stroke. The purpose of the present large-scale propensity score-matched population-based follow-up study was to clarify whether there is an increased stroke risk after ACS.

Methods

We used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 22025 subjects with at least two ambulatory visits with the principal diagnosis of ACS in 2001 was enrolled in the ACS group. The non-ACS group consisted of 22025, propensity score-matched subjects without ACS. The stroke-free survival curves for these 2 groups were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression with patients matched on propensity score was used to estimate the effect of ACS on the occurrence of stroke.

Results

During the two-year follow-up period, 657 subjects in the ACS group (2.98%) and 687 in the non-ACS group (3.12%) developed stroke. The hazard ratio (HR) of stroke for the ACS group was 0.93 compared to the non-ACS group (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83–1.04, P = 0.1778). There was no statistically significant difference in stroke subtype distribution between the two groups (P = 0.2114).

Conclusions

These findings indicate that ACS itself is not associated with an increased risk of subsequent stroke.     

Does Stress Increase the Risk of Atopic Dermatitis in Adolescents? Results of the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey (KYRBWS-VI)

This study investigated the relationship between level of stress in middle and high school students aged 12–18 and risk of atopic dermatitis. Data from the Sixth Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBWS-VI), a cross-sectional study among 74,980 students in 800 middle schools and high schools with a response rate of 97.7%, were analyzed. Ordinal logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the relationship between stress and atopic dermatitis with severity. A total of 5,550 boys and 6,964 girls reported having been diagnosed with atopic dermatitis. Younger students were more likely to have atopic dermatitis. Interestingly, the educational level of parents was found to be associated with having atopic dermatitis and having more severe condition. In particular, girls with mothers with at least college education had a 41% higher risk of having atopic dermatitis and severe atopic condition (odds ratio (OR)) = 1.41, 95% CI, 1.22–1.63; P<0.0001) compared with those with mothers who had attended middle school at most. Similar trend was shown among both boys and girls for their father''s education level. The stress level was found to be significantly associated with the risk of atopic dermatitis. Compared to boys with who reported “no stress”, boys with “very high” stress had 46% higher the risk of having more severe atopic dermatitis (OR = 1.46, 95% CI, 1.20–1.78; P<0.0001), 44% higher (OR = 1.44, 95% CI, 1.19–1.73; P<0.0001) with “high” stress, and 21% higher (OR = 1.21, 95% CI, 1.00–1.45; P = 0.05) with “moderate” stress. In contrast, we found no statistically significant relationship between stress and atopic dermatitis in girls. This study suggests that stress and parents'' education level were associated with atopic dermatitis. Specifically, degree of stress is positively correlated with likelihood of being diagnosed with this condition and increasing the severity.     

Does Lack of Secondary Structure Imply Intrinsic Disorder in Proteins? A Sequence Analysis

Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs)/protein regions (IDPRs) lack unique three-dimensional structure at the level of secondary and/or tertiary structure and are represented as an ensemble of interchanging conformations. To investigate the role of presence/absence of secondary structures in promoting intrinsic disorder in proteins, a comparative sequence analysis of IDPs, IDPRs and proteins with minimal secondary structures (less than 5%) is required. A sequence analysis reveals proteins with minimal secondary structure content have high mean net positive charge, low mean net hydrophobicity and low sequence complexity. Interestingly, analysis of the relative local electrostatic interactions reveal that an increase in the relative repulsive interactions between amino acids separated by three or four residues lead to either loss of secondary structure or intrinsic disorder. IDPRs show increase in both local negative-negative and positive-positive repulsive interactions. While IDPs show a marked increase in the local negative-negative interactions, proteins with minimal secondary structure depict an increase in the local positive-positive interactions. IDPs and IDPRs are enriched in D, E and Q residues, while proteins with minimal secondary structure are depleted of these residues. Proteins with minimal secondary structures have higher content of G and C, while IDPs and IDPRs are depleted of these residues. These results confirm that proteins with minimal secondary structure have a distinctly different propensity for charge, hydrophobicity, specific amino acids and local electrostatic interactions as compared to IDPs/IDPRs. Thus we conclude that lack of secondary structure may be a necessary but not a sufficient condition for intrinsic disorder in proteins.     

Does Place of Residence or Time of Year Affect the Risk of Stroke Hospitalization and Death? A Descriptive Spatial and Temporal Epidemiologic Study

Background

Identifying geographic areas with significantly high risks of stroke is important for informing public health prevention and control efforts. The objective of this study was to investigate geographic and temporal patterns of stroke hospitalization and mortality risks so as to identify areas and seasons with significantly high burden of the disease in Florida. The information obtained will be useful for resource allocation for disease prevention and control.

Methods

Stroke hospitalization and mortality data from 1992 to 2012 were obtained from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Age-adjusted stroke hospitalization and mortality risks for time periods 1992–94, 1995–97, 1998–2000, 2001–03, 2004–06, 2007–09 and 2010–12 were computed at the county spatial scale. Global Moran’s I statistics were computed for each of the time periods to test for evidence of global spatial clustering. Local Moran indicators of spatial association (LISA) were also computed to identify local areas with significantly high risks.

Results

There were approximately 1.5 million stroke hospitalizations and over 196,000 stroke deaths during the study period. Based on global Moran’s I tests, there was evidence of significant (p<0.05) global spatial clustering of stroke mortality risks but no evidence (p>0.05) of significant global clustering of stroke hospitalization risks. However, LISA showed evidence of local spatial clusters of both hospitalization and mortality risks with significantly high risks being observed in the north while the south had significantly low risks of stroke deaths. There were decreasing temporal trends and seasonal patterns of both hospitalization and mortality risks with peaks in the winter.

Conclusions

Although stroke hospitalization and mortality risks have declined in the past two decades, disparities continue to exist across Florida and it is evident from the results of this study that north Florida may, in fact, be part of the stroke belt despite not being in any of the traditional stroke belt states. These findings are useful for guiding public health efforts to reduce/eliminate inequities in stroke outcomes and inform policy decisions. There is need to continually identify populations with significantly high risks of stroke to better guide the targeting of limited resources to the highest risk populations.     

Plague Meningitis—A Retrospective Analysis of Cases Reported in the United States, 1970-1979

Meningitis caused by Yersinia pestis developed in 6 (6%) of a total of 105 patients with plague reported to the Centers for Disease Control from 1970 to 1979. Five of the six cases occurred in children aged 10 to 15 years. All six patients received antibiotic therapy before meningitis developed, which appeared between the 9th and 14th days after the onset of acute illness in five of the six patients. There were no neurologic sequelae. The antigenic and biochemical profiles of the Y pestis strains isolated from cerebrospinal fluid in the meningitis cases did not differ from those of the Y pestis strains obtained from blood and bubo aspirates in the other 99 patients, and neither did in vitro studies suggest antibiotic resistance. While plague meningitis is an uncommon complication of acute plague infection, physicians in the western United States should be aware that it may develop as much as 14 days after antibiotic therapy for the acute plague infection has been initiated.     

“Solution-Focused Risk Assessment”: A Proposal for the Fusion of Environmental Analysis and Action

For 30 years, more attention and resources have been expended on dissecting problems (risk assessment) than on evaluating actual solutions that reduce risks. The basic dogma holds that risk assessment must precede risk management. But there is an opposite and perhaps better way: the opening question should not be “How bad is the problem?” but “How good are the solutions we might apply to the problem?” Rethinking risk assessment in this context offers three classes of benefits over the status quo. First, it can help break the endless cycle of analysis: when the goal is to know enough to decide, rather than to know everything, natural stopping points emerge. Second, it can lead to more decisions that actually achieve risk reduction, rather than pronouncements about how much risk reduction would be optimal. Third, it can highlight ways to resolve multiple risks simultaneously, avoid needless and tragic risk-risk tradeoffs, and involve affected stakeholders in debating what should be done. Arguably, the longer the disembodied analysis of risk information is allowed to proceed, the more likely it is that the “problem” will be defined in a way that blunts the free-wheeling discussion of solutions, to the detriment of human health, the environment, and the economy.     

Risk Identification and Prediction of Coal Workers’ Pneumoconiosis in Kailuan Colliery Group in China: A Historical Cohort Study

Background

Prior to 1970, coal mining technology and prevention measures in China were poor. Mechanized coal mining equipment and advanced protection measures were continuously installed in the mines after 1970. All these improvements may have resulted in a change in the incidence of coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (CWP). Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of CWP today and trends for the incidence of CWP in the future.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 17,023 coal workers from the Kailuan Colliery Group were studied. A life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of CWP and predict the number of new CWP patients in the future. The probability of developing CWP was estimated by a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network for each coal worker without CWP. The results showed that the cumulative incidence rates of CWP for tunneling, mining, combining, and helping workers were 31.8%, 27.5%, 24.2%, and 2.6%, respectively, during the same observation period of 40 years. It was estimated that there would be 844 new CWP cases among 16,185 coal workers without CWP within their life expectancy. There would be 273.1, 273.1, 227.6, and 69.9 new CWP patients in the next <10, 10-, 20-, and 30- years respectively in the study cohort within their life expectancy. It was identified that coal workers whose risk probabilities were over 0.2 were at high risk for CWP, and whose risk probabilities were under 0.1 were at low risk.

Conclusion/Significance

The present and future incidence trends of CWP remain high among coal workers. We suggest that coal workers at high risk of CWP undergo a physical examination for pneumoconiosis every year, and the coal workers at low risk of CWP be examined every 5 years.     

Did Advances in Global Surveillance and Notification Systems Make a Difference in the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?–A Retrospective Analysis

Background

The 2009 H1N1 outbreak provides an opportunity to identify strengths and weaknesses of disease surveillance and notification systems that have been implemented in the past decade.

Methods

Drawing on a systematic review of the scientific literature, official documents, websites, and news reports, we constructed a timeline differentiating three kinds of events: (1) the emergence and spread of the pH1N1 virus, (2) local health officials’ awareness and understanding of the outbreak, and (3) notifications about the events and their implications. We then conducted a “critical event” analysis of the surveillance process to ascertain when health officials became aware of the epidemiologic facts of the unfolding pandemic and whether advances in surveillance notification systems hastened detection.

Results

This analysis revealed three critical events. First, medical personnel identified pH1N1in California children because of an experimental surveillance program, leading to a novel viral strain being identified by CDC. Second, Mexican officials recognized that unconnected outbreaks represented a single phenomenon. Finally, the identification of a pH1N1 outbreak in a New York City high school was hastened by awareness of the emerging pandemic. Analysis of the timeline suggests that at best the global response could have been about one week earlier (which would not have stopped spread to other countries), and could have been much later.

Conclusions

This analysis shows that investments in global surveillance and notification systems made an important difference in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. In particular, enhanced laboratory capacity in the U.S. and Canada led to earlier detection and characterization of the 2009 H1N1. This includes enhanced capacity at the federal, state, and local levels in the U.S., as well as a trilateral agreement enabling collaboration among U.S., Canada, and Mexico. In addition, improved global notification systems contributed by helping health officials understand the relevance and importance of their own information.     

Does history repeat itself? Wavelets and the phylodynamics of influenza A

Unprecedented global surveillance of viruses will result in massive sequence data sets that require new statistical methods. These data sets press the limits of Bayesian phylogenetics as the high-dimensional parameters that comprise a phylogenetic tree increase the already sizable computational burden of these techniques. This burden often results in partitioning the data set, for example, by gene, and inferring the evolutionary dynamics of each partition independently, a compromise that results in stratified analyses that depend only on data within a given partition. However, parameter estimates inferred from these stratified models are likely strongly correlated, considering they rely on data from a single data set. To overcome this shortfall, we exploit the existing Monte Carlo realizations from stratified Bayesian analyses to efficiently estimate a nonparametric hierarchical wavelet-based model and learn about the time-varying parameters of effective population size that reflect levels of genetic diversity across all partitions simultaneously. Our methods are applied to complete genome influenza A sequences that span 13 years. We find that broad peaks and trends, as opposed to seasonal spikes, in the effective population size history distinguish individual segments from the complete genome. We also address hypotheses regarding intersegment dynamics within a formal statistical framework that accounts for correlation between segment-specific parameters.     

Does Hair Dye Use Increase the Risk of Breast Cancer? A Population-Based Case-Control Study of Finnish Women

Introduction

Role of hair dyes in the etiology of breast cancer has occasionally raised concern but previous research has concluded with mixed results. Remnants of prohibited aromatic amines have been found in many hair dye products, and elevated levels of DNA-adducts of these amines have been detected from breast epithelial cells of hair dye users. However, the IARC working group has concluded that there is inadequate evidence for carcinogenicity of personal hair dye use and limited evidence in experimental animals for carcinogenicity of hair colorants.

Material and Methods

We investigated whether the use of hair dyes is associated with breast cancer risk in women. The study design was a retrospective population-based case-control study in Finland, with a self-administered questionnaire from 6,567 breast cancer patients, aged 22–60 years and diagnosed in 2000–2007, and their 21,598 matched controls. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) from a conditional logistic regression model applied to the frequency matched sets of cases and controls. Bias-adjusted odds ratios from the sensitivity analysis are also presented.

Results

After adjusting for potential confounders, the odds of breast cancer increased by 23% (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.11–1.36) among women who used hair dyes compared to those who did not. In women born before 1950 an increase of 28% was noted (OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10–1.48). We also observed a significant trend between the OR and cumulative use of hair dyes (P: 0.005). Bias-adjusted odds ratios varied between 1.04 and 2.50.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that use of hair dyes is associated with breast cancer incidence. The impact on public health may be substantial due to vast popularity of hair coloring in modern societies. It should be noted that regardless of all efforts, a possibility of bias cannot definitively be ruled out and use of a prospective design is warranted. Based on the present results, it may be concluded however that safety of hair dyes in relation to breast cancer cannot yet be fully acknowledged and lack of external safety assessment within the cosmetics industry is of major concern.     

Does the Spanish version of the SWLS measure the same in Spain and Peru?

AimSatisfaction with life is a measure of protection in older adults. There lies the importance of providing quality instruments. The aim of the study was to evaluate the invariance of the life satisfaction scale (SWLS) in two samples of older adults in Spain and Peru.MethodThe participants were 857 older adults in Spain (mean age = 68.23 years, SD = 5.93) and 336 older adults in Peru (average age = 72.42, SD = 7.07). All multi-group confirmatory factor analyzes were estimated in Mplus 8.0.ResultsThe results indicate the presence of a strict invariance of the one-dimensional structure of the SWLS in samples of older adults in Spain and Peru, which allows for meaningful comparisons of latent means and covariances. Comparison of latent means showed small differences in the construct between the cultural groups.ConclusionsThe SWLS is a valid instrument for intercultural comparisons between Spanish and Peruvian population. The measurement invariance assessment contributes to a better understanding of life satisfaction in populations from different cultural contexts.