A Simple,Flexible Failure Model

A new failure model is introduced in the form of a four-parameter nonlinear differential equation, with failure probability as the dependent variable and failure time as the independent variable. The first parameter characterizes the location, the second the scale, and the other two the shape of the model. The type of the accompanying hazard function is immediately read off the shape parameters. The new model approximates the classical failure models with rather high precision, but also models cases where the failure density is skewed to the left. It can be used to analyze survival data objectively, based on the shape of the failure distribution. The computation of quantiles and moments is easy and fast. Nonlinear regression methods are used to estimate parameter values.     

Synthetic,Multi-Layer,Self-Oscillating Vocal Fold Model Fabrication

Sound for the human voice is produced via flow-induced vocal fold vibration. The vocal folds consist of several layers of tissue, each with differing material properties ¹. Normal voice production relies on healthy tissue and vocal folds, and occurs as a result of complex coupling between aerodynamic, structural dynamic, and acoustic physical phenomena. Voice disorders affect up to 7.5 million annually in the United States alone ² and often result in significant financial, social, and other quality-of-life difficulties. Understanding the physics of voice production has the potential to significantly benefit voice care, including clinical prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of voice disorders.Existing methods for studying voice production include in vivo experimentation using human and animal subjects, in vitro experimentation using excised larynges and synthetic models, and computational modeling. Owing to hazardous and difficult instrument access, in vivo experiments are severely limited in scope. Excised larynx experiments have the benefit of anatomical and some physiological realism, but parametric studies involving geometric and material property variables are limited. Further, they are typically only able to be vibrated for relatively short periods of time (typically on the order of minutes).Overcoming some of the limitations of excised larynx experiments, synthetic vocal fold models are emerging as a complementary tool for studying voice production. Synthetic models can be fabricated with systematic changes to geometry and material properties, allowing for the study of healthy and unhealthy human phonatory aerodynamics, structural dynamics, and acoustics. For example, they have been used to study left-right vocal fold asymmetry ^3,4, clinical instrument development ⁵, laryngeal aerodynamics ^6-9, vocal fold contact pressure ¹⁰, and subglottal acoustics ¹¹ (a more comprehensive list can be found in Kniesburges et al. ¹²)Existing synthetic vocal fold models, however, have either been homogenous (one-layer models) or have been fabricated using two materials of differing stiffness (two-layer models). This approach does not allow for representation of the actual multi-layer structure of the human vocal folds ¹ that plays a central role in governing vocal fold flow-induced vibratory response. Consequently, one- and two-layer synthetic vocal fold models have exhibited disadvantages ^3,6,8 such as higher onset pressures than what are typical for human phonation (onset pressure is the minimum lung pressure required to initiate vibration), unnaturally large inferior-superior motion, and lack of a "mucosal wave" (a vertically-traveling wave that is characteristic of healthy human vocal fold vibration).In this paper, fabrication of a model with multiple layers of differing material properties is described. The model layers simulate the multi-layer structure of the human vocal folds, including epithelium, superficial lamina propria (SLP), intermediate and deep lamina propria (i.e., ligament; a fiber is included for anterior-posterior stiffness), and muscle (i.e., body) layers ¹. Results are included that show that the model exhibits improved vibratory characteristics over prior one- and two-layer synthetic models, including onset pressure closer to human onset pressure, reduced inferior-superior motion, and evidence of a mucosal wave.     

A Mathematical Model of Valveless Pumping: A Lumped Model with Time-Dependent Compliance,Resistance, and Inertia

A new lumped model of flow driven by pumping without valves is presented, motivated by biomedical applications: the circulation of the human fetus before the development of the heart valves and mechanism of blood flow during the external cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The phenomenon of existence of a unidirectional net flow around a loop of tubing that consists of two different compliances is called valveless pumping. The lumped parameter model of valveless pumping in this paper is governed by the ordinary differential equations for pressure and flow, with time-dependent compliance, resistance, and inertia. This simple model can represent the essential features of valveless pumping we observed in earlier mathematical models and physical experiments of valveless pumping. We demonstrate that not only parameters of the driving function, such as frequency or amplitude, but also physical parameters, such as wall thickness and tube stiffness, are important in determining the direction and magnitude of a net flow. In this system, we report two new and interesting phenomena of valveless pumping: One is that the shifted peak frequency can be predicted by the pulsewave speed and the other is that time-dependent resistance is a crucial factor in generating valveless pumping. We also demonstrate that this lumped model can be extended to a one-dimensional flow model of valveless pumping and explain why a linear case, the case of the constant compliance, resistance, and inertia, generates almost zero net flow. This emphasizes that the nonlinearity of valveless pumping is also an important factor to generate a net flow in a closed loop model of valveless pumping.     

酵母:一种模式生物

1996年 4月 ,在国际互联网的公共数据库中公布了酿酒酵母 (以下简称酵母 )的完整基因组顺序 ,它被称为遗传学上的里程碑。因为首先 ,这是人们第一次获得真核生物基因组的完整核苷酸序列 ;其次 ,这是人们第一次获得一种易于操作的实验生物系统的完整基因组。酵母是一种较好的模式生物 ,通过对其基因组的深入研究将有助于人们了解高等真核生物基因组的结构和功能。酿酒酵母作为一种模式生物在实验系统研究方面具有许多内在的优势。首先 ,酵母是一种单细胞生物 ,能够在基本培养基上生长 ,使得实验者能够通过改变物理或化学环境完全控制其生长。…     

Luminance,Colour, Viewpoint and Border Enhanced Disparity Energy Model

The visual cortex is able to extract disparity information through the use of binocular cells. This process is reflected by the Disparity Energy Model, which describes the role and functioning of simple and complex binocular neuron populations, and how they are able to extract disparity. This model uses explicit cell parameters to mathematically determine preferred cell disparities, like spatial frequencies, orientations, binocular phases and receptive field positions. However, the brain cannot access such explicit cell parameters; it must rely on cell responses. In this article, we implemented a trained binocular neuronal population, which encodes disparity information implicitly. This allows the population to learn how to decode disparities, in a similar way to how our visual system could have developed this ability during evolution. At the same time, responses of monocular simple and complex cells can also encode line and edge information, which is useful for refining disparities at object borders. The brain should then be able, starting from a low-level disparity draft, to integrate all information, including colour and viewpoint perspective, in order to propagate better estimates to higher cortical areas.     

Epidemiological transitions, reproductive health, and the Flexible Response Model

In concert with improving standards of living since the mid-19th century, chronic and non-infectious diseases replaced infectious diseases as the major causes of mortality in more developed countries. Thus, economic development has been seen as one strategy to improve women's reproductive health. However, rates of two of the major contributors to women's illness, maternal mortality and breast cancer, do not correspond well with the level of economic development. Drawing upon our longitudinal study of reproductive functioning among rural Bolivians (Project Reproduction and Ecology in Provincia Aroma (REPA)), we propose an evolutionary model to explain variation in certain aspects of women's reproductive health. Our findings suggest new avenues of inquiry into the determinants of reproductive health and have implications for improving the well-being of women worldwide.     

Probabilistic Model of Microbial Cell Growth,Division, and Mortality

After a short time interval of length δt during microbial growth, an individual cell can be found to be divided with probability P_d(t)δt, dead with probability P_m(t)δt, or alive but undivided with the probability 1 − [P_d(t) + P_m(t)]δt, where t is time, P_d(t) expresses the probability of division for an individual cell per unit of time, and P_m(t) expresses the probability of mortality per unit of time. These probabilities may change with the state of the population and the habitat''s properties and are therefore functions of time. This scenario translates into a model that is presented in stochastic and deterministic versions. The first, a stochastic process model, monitors the fates of individual cells and determines cell numbers. It is particularly suitable for small populations such as those that may exist in the case of casual contamination of a food by a pathogen. The second, which can be regarded as a large-population limit of the stochastic model, is a continuous mathematical expression that describes the population''s size as a function of time. It is suitable for large microbial populations such as those present in unprocessed foods. Exponential or logistic growth with or without lag, inactivation with or without a “shoulder,” and transitions between growth and inactivation are all manifestations of the underlying probability structure of the model. With temperature-dependent parameters, the model can be used to simulate nonisothermal growth and inactivation patterns. The same concept applies to other factors that promote or inhibit microorganisms, such as pH and the presence of antimicrobials, etc. With P_d(t) and P_m(t) in the form of logistic functions, the model can simulate all commonly observed growth/mortality patterns. Estimates of the changing probability parameters can be obtained with both the stochastic and deterministic versions of the model, as demonstrated with simulated data.     

Neural Organoids,a Versatile Model for Neuroscience

Three-dimensional cultures of human neural tissue/organ-like structures in vitro can be achieved by mimicking the developmental processes occurring in vivo. Rapid progress in the field of neural organoids has fueled the hope (and hype) for improved understanding of brain development and functions, modeling of neural diseases, discovery of new drugs, and supply of surrogate sources of transplantation. In this short review, we summarize the state-of-the-art applications of this fascinating tool in various research fields and discuss the reality of the technique hoping that the current limitations will soon be overcome by the efforts of ingenious researchers.     

To Model or not to Model,That is no Longer the Question for Ecologists

Here, I argue that we should abandon the division between “field ecologists” and “modelers,” and embrace modeling and empirical research as two powerful and often complementary approaches in the toolbox of 21st century ecologists, to be deployed alone or in combination depending on the task at hand. As empirical research has the longer tradition in ecology, and modeling is the more recent addition to the methodological arsenal, I provide both practical and theoretical reasons for integrating modeling more deeply into ecosystem research. Empirical research has epistemological priority over modeling; however, that is, for models to realize their full potential, and for modelers to wield this power wisely, empirical research is of fundamental importance. Combining both methodological approaches or forming “super ties” with colleagues using different methods are promising pathways to creatively exploit the methodological possibilities resulting from increasing computing power. To improve the proficiency of the growing group of model users and ensure future innovation in model development, we need to increase the modeling literacy among ecology students. However, an improved training in modeling must not curtail education in basic ecological principles and field methods, as these skills form the foundation for building and applying models in ecology.     

生物协同学,Lorenz模型和种群动力学

由协同学方程出发,可以描述种群的大迁徙,由此又能够得到Lorenz模型,它可以描述两种种群的变化关系．当取绝热近似时,还可以导致种群动力学的不同模型．因此,生物协同学能够深刻揭示不同物种之间,既竞争又协同的复杂的非线性关系．     

森林生态系统健康评估I．模式、计算方法和指标体系

生态系统健康评估是21世纪生态系统学研究的主要内容和迫切任务之一．简单实用的生态系统健康评估理论和方法需要可操作性的概念和一个全面、简明、易操作且规范化的指标体系,它们是进行生态系统健康评估的基础．以阔叶红松林生态系统为例,从对森林生态系统健康的理解和评价出发。通过引入模式生态系统集的思想,提出了对森林生态系统健康理解的独创看法,并以此提出生态系统健康评估的新方法——健康距离(HD)法,并推导出计算公式．同时,针对阔叶红松林生态系统的系统特征和面临的各种具体健康问题,提出了基于自然-经济-社会复合生态系统属性的阔叶红松林生态系统健康评估指标体系,并具体到各度量指标,为下一步的健康评估打下基础．     

Technical Critique of the Multimedia,Multipathway, Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is developing the Multimedia, Multipathway, Multireceptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model to evaluate potential human and ecological risks associated with the disposal of solid wastes designated as hazardous wastes in nonhazardous waste management units. USEPA intends to use the 3MRA model to determine national exit levels that will allow solid wastes that theoretically pose acceptable human and ecological risks to be safely managed in Subtitle D nonhazardous waste management units. We critically evaluated the 3MRA model to determine whether the methodology, interim modules, and input parameters are appropriate and scientifically defensible. Overall, our review of the 3MRA model indicates that it contains many conservative assumptions that may limit the validity of the model results and its use as a national model adequate for making regulatory decisions. Many of the assumptions and data inputs used to model the pathways involved in the transport of chemicals from a waste management unit are flawed. Other specific concerns include the lack of model validation, incompatibility of data between modules, and overestimation of potential human and ecological exposures. Before using the 3MRA model, we recommend that USEPA consider whether the 3MRA model is either an appropriate or accurate tool for evaluating the disposal of hazardous wastes nationwide.     

Evolutionary Psychology, Human Universals, and the Standard Social Science Model

Proponents of evolutionary psychology take the existence of humanuniversals to constitute decisive evidence in favor of their view. Ifthe same social norms are found in culture after culture, we have goodreason to believe that they are innate, they argue. In this paper Ipropose an alternative explanation for the existence of humanuniversals, which does not depend on them being the product of inbuiltpsychological adaptations. Following the work of Brian Skyrms, I suggestthat if a particular convention possesses even a very small advantageover competitors, whatever the reason for that advantage, we shouldexpect it to become the norm almost everywhere. Tiny advantages aretranslated into very large basins of attraction, in the language of gametheory. If this is so, universal norms are not evidence for innatepsychological adaptations at all. Having shown that the existence ofuniversals is consistent with the so-called Standard Social ScienceModel, I turn to a consideration of the evidence, to show that thisstyle of explanation is preferable to the evolutionary explanation, atleast with regard to patterns of gender inequality.