The environmental implications of upper Paleozoic plant-fossil assemblages with mixtures of wetland and drought-tolerant taxa in tropical Pangea

We evaluate the influences of elevation and climate on the spatio-temporal distribution of wetland and dryland biomes during the Pennsylvanian and early Permian in tropical Pangea. The longstanding “upland model” places drought-tolerant vegetation in elevated habitats, where slope and drainage created moisture-limited substrates under a humid climate that simultaneously promoted peat accumulation in contemporaneous lowlands. Upland plants were periodically transported to, and buried in, lowlands. Rare preservation of dryland vegetation thus reflects its general absence in basins, and taphonomic vagaries of long-distance transport. The alternative “climate model” proposes that drought-tolerant plants dominated tropical habitats when climate was seasonally dry, with wetland vegetation reduced to scattered refugia. Environmental changes attending glacial-interglacial cycles caused alternating wetter-drier conditions, and the relative abundance of wetland versus dryland biomes in basinal lowlands thus varied with climatic oscillations. The paucity of drought-tolerant plants reflects a preservational megabias against habitats with seasonal moisture deficits.The environmental signal of “mixed” plant-fossil assemblages, comprising taxa characteristic of both wetland and dryland biomes, may help resolve these debates. We review key Pennsylvanian and lower Permian mixed assemblages from tropical Euramerican Pangea, and interpret their original habitats and climatic contexts based on multidisciplinary lines of evidence, including sedimentology, taphonomy, physiology, and paleoecology. Evaluations also consider patterns of vegetational distribution and taphonomy in modern tropical environments. We suggest that even a cursory view of current tropical plant distribution exposes flaws in the upland model. Where tropical climate is sufficiently humid to support peat swamps, slopes and elevated habitats do not host drought-tolerant vegetation, but are occupied by plants similar to those in lowland settings. This occurs because equable, high precipitation strongly dampens water-table variation across entire landscapes. Furthermore, taphonomic studies indicate that most plant-fossil assemblages record vegetation living near the burial site. Fossil floras thus reflect environmental conditions near their growth site, excluding an upland origin for most occurrences of drought-tolerant taxa. Conversely, the climate model is consistent with modern tropical vegetational distribution and soundly explains late Paleozoic floristic patterns. When Pangean tropical lowlands experienced seasonally dry conditions, plants tolerant of moisture deficits dominated most habitats, whereas wetland vegetation was restricted to wetter sites with greater preservation potential. This occurred because topographic variations are magnified under seasonal precipitation regimes, creating a complex habitat mosaic with wetland patches in a landscape subject to seasonal drought. Accordingly, we propose that a macrofloral assemblage with even rare drought-tolerant taxa indicates seasonality in the broader landscape.At larger spatio-temporal scales, disagreement also persists about whether tectonic uplift or long-term climatic drying was the primary driver of changes in late Paleozoic floristic patterns and areal extent of tropical peat swamps. We argue that tectonic activity alone cannot explain the drastic reduction in peat swamps or coincident changes in dominance-diversity of wetland vegetation. Rates of plant dispersal and evolution far outpace that of mountain building, and peat-forming wetlands persisted in elevated habitats well into the Late Pennsylvanian. Therefore, progressive late Paleozoic aridification was the most probable driver of changing floral patterns and the distribution of wetland and dryland biomes in tropical Pangea.     

Ecological distribution of terrestrial orchids in a south Brazilian Atlantic region

Terrestrial orchids comprise a taxonomically and ecologically varied group, ranging from tropical to subpolar regions and from wet marshy to dry sand-dune environments. An ecological survey of these plants was performed in a natural region of Rio Grande do Sul, south Brazil, namely the northern coastal plain, between the abrupt slopes of the Serra Geral and the coastal line of the Atlantic Ocean (29°01'S to 30°00'S, 49°43'W to 50°16'W). The study area presents a humid subtropical climate of the Cfa type. Mean annual temperature and precipitation range from 17.5 to 20.0°C and from 1200 to 1700  mm, respectively. The occurrence of indigenous terrestrial orchid species was recorded for six major habitats or vegetation types: bogs and marshes, peat forests, rain forests, dune forests, Butia -palm stands and coastal sand-dunes. The ecological range was defined for 39 species belonging to 23 genera, based on literature, herbarium revisions and extensive collecting along the studied area. Species richness ranged from nine species, in both coastal dunes and palm-groves, to 17 species in peat forests. A negative correlation was observed between species richness and ecological range, showing a general tendency for terrestrial orchids to be confined to one or a few habitats. Multivariate analyses indicated light (herbaceous vs woody vegetation) as a primary ecological factor, and soil drainage (sandy vs peaty substrates) as a secondary factor controlling terrestrial orchid distribution.     

Climate‐growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate‐growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in tropical dry secondary forests in southern Mexico. The role of large‐scale climatic drivers in determining interannual growth variation was studied by correlating growth to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual growth varied eightfold over 1970–2007, and was correlated with wet season rainfall (r=0.75). Temperature, cloud cover and solar variation did not affect growth, although these climate variables correlated with growth due to their relations with rainfall. Strong positive correlations between growth and SSTA occurred in the North tropical Atlantic during the first half of the year, and in the Pacific during the second half of the year. The Pacific influence corresponded closely to ENSO‐like influences with negative effects of high SSTA in the eastern Pacific Niño3.4 region on growth due to decreases in rainfall. During El Niño years growth was reduced by 37%. We estimated how growth would be affected by the predicted trend of decreasing rainfall in Central America towards the end of this century. Using rainfall predictions of two sets of climate models, we estimated that growth at the end of this century will be reduced by 12% under a medium (A1B) and 21% under a high (A2) emission scenario. These results suggest that climate change may have repercussions for the carbon sequestration capacity of tropical dry forests in the region.     

Flying in the face of climate change: a review of climate change, past, present and future

The distribution and abundance of birds is known to depend critically upon climate variability at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In this paper we review historical changes in climate in the context of what is known about climate variability over the last millennium, with particular reference to the British Isles. The climate of Britain is now warmer than it has been in at least 340 years, with the 1990s decade 0.5 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average. In addition, the frequency of cold days (mean temperature below 0 °C), particularly during March and November, has declined and there has been a marked shift in the seasonality of precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter and summers becoming slightly drier. Current understanding is that the rate of future warming is likely to accelerate with more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves, milder winters, an increase in winter rainfall, an increased risk of winter river floods, and an increase in mean sea-level and associated coastal flooding. All of these aspects of climate change are likely to impact on coastal birds. A range of potential future climate scenarios for the British Isles are presented derived from recently completed global climate model experiments. For migrant bird species, changes in the British climate have also to be seen within the context of remote climate change in both the breeding and the overwintering grounds.     

Mangrove response to environmental change in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria

Across their range, mangroves are responding to coastal environmental change. However, separating the influence of human activities from natural events and processes (including that associated with climatic fluctuation) is often difficult. In the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia (Leichhardt, Nicholson, Mornington Inlet, and Flinders River catchments), changes in mangroves are assumed to be the result of natural drivers as human impacts are minimal. By comparing classifications from time series of Landsat sensor data for the period 1987–2014, mangroves were observed to have extended seawards by up to 1.9 km (perpendicular to the coastline), with inland intrusion occurring along many of the rivers and rivulets in the tidal reaches. Seaward expansion was particularly evident near the mouth of the Leichhardt River, and was associated with peaks in river discharge with LiDAR data indicating distinct structural zones developing following each large rainfall and discharge event. However, along the Gulf coast, and particularly within the Mornington Inlet catchment, the expansion was more gradual and linked to inundation and regular sediment supply through freshwater input. Landward expansion along the Mornington Inlet catchment was attributed to the combined effects of sea level rise and prolonged periods of tidal and freshwater inundation on coastal lowlands. The study concluded that increased amounts of rainfall and associated flooding and sea level rise were responsible for recent seaward and landward extension of mangroves in this region.     

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal‐dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests—one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic—along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm‐water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year^?1. This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate‐driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL SEAWEED COMMUNITIES

Seaweeds are ecologically important primary producers, competitors, and ecosystem engineers that play a central role in coastal habitats ranging from kelp forests to coral reefs. Although seaweeds are known to be vulnerable to physical and chemical changes in the marine environment, the impacts of ongoing and future anthropogenic climate change in seaweed‐dominated ecosystems remain poorly understood. In this review, we describe the ways in which changes in the environment directly affect seaweeds in terms of their physiology, growth, reproduction, and survival. We consider the extent to which seaweed species may be able to respond to these changes via adaptation or migration. We also examine the extensive reshuffling of communities that is occurring as the ecological balance between competing species changes, and as top‐down control by herbivores becomes stronger or weaker. Finally, we delve into some of the ecosystem‐level responses to these changes, including changes in primary productivity, diversity, and resilience. Although there are several key areas in which ecological insight is lacking, we suggest that reasonable climate‐related hypotheses can be developed and tested based on current information. By strategically prioritizing research in the areas of complex environmental variation, multiple stressor effects, evolutionary adaptation, and population, community, and ecosystem‐level responses, we can rapidly build upon our current understanding of seaweed biology and climate change ecology to more effectively conserve and manage coastal ecosystems.     

Sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change in the humid tropics of north Queensland

An analysis using an artificial neural network model suggests that the tropical forests of north Queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur in the next 50–100 years. The distribution and extent of environments suitable for 15 structural forest types were estimated, using the model, in 10 climate scenarios that include warming up to 1°C and altered precipitation from –10% to +20%. Large changes in the distribution of forest environments are predicted with even minor climate change. Increased precipitation favours some rainforest types, whereas decreased rainfall increases the area suitable for forests dominated by sclerophyllous genera such as Eucalyptus and Allocasuarina. Rainforest environments respond differentially to increased temperature. The area of lowland mesophyll vine forest environments increases with warming, whereas upland complex notophyll vine forest environments respond either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation. Highland rainforest environments (simple notophyll and simple microphyll vine fern forests and thickets), the habitat for many of the region’s endemic vertebrates, decrease by 50% with only a 1°C warming. Estimates of the stress to present forests resulting from spatial shifts of forest environments (assuming no change in the present forest distributions) indicate that several forest types would be highly stressed by a 1°C warming and most are sensitive to any change in rainfall. Most forests will experience climates in the near future that are more appropriate to some other structural forest type. Thus, the propensity for ecological change in the region is high and, in the long term, significant shifts in the extent and spatial distribution of forests are likely. A detailed spatial analysis of the sensitivity to climate change indicates that the strongest effects of climate change will be experienced at boundaries between forest classes and in ecotonal communities between rainforest and open woodland.     

The effects of an experimental drought on the ecophysiology and fruiting phenology of a tropical rainforest palm

据预测,人为气候变化将季节性地增加平均温度和降雨。热带雨林物种将如何应对这种气候变化仍不确定。本研究分析了对澳大利 亚昆士兰北部丹特里雨林的一种澳大利亚特有棕榈(Normambya normanbyi)进行4年降雨实验的影响,目的是了解模拟降雨减少对物种生理 过程和果实物候的影响。我们考察了这种本地丰富的棕榈的果实物候和生理生态学特性,以确定该物种对干旱的生态响应。2015年5月, 通过排涝实验,降低了约30%的土壤水分有效性。我们总共监测了8年(2009–2018年)的月度果实活性,包括排涝实验开始之前的4年。在最 近几年的研究中,我们测量了干、湿两季幼嫩和成熟叶片的光合速率、气孔导度和碳稳定同位素等生理参数。研究结果表明,所有棕榈树 的月度果实活性主要受光周期、平均太阳辐射和平均温度的驱动。然而,暴露于较低土壤水分的植株,其果实活性、光合速率和气孔导度 均显著下降。我们还发现这些生理表现受到排涝实验、季节以及两者的相互作用的影响。2018年观察到排涝实验的棕榈的果实活力有所恢复,土壤浅层水分也有所增加(与前几年相比)。我们的研究结果表明,像N. normanbyi 这样的棕榈树对未来的气候变化非常敏感,建议对其 进行长期监测,以确定其对种群规模的影响。     

Mangrove Habitat Use by Juvenile Reef Fish: Meta-Analysis Reveals that Tidal Regime Matters More than Biogeographic Region

Identification of critical life-stage habitats is key to successful conservation efforts. Juveniles of some species show great flexibility in habitat use while other species rely heavily on a restricted number of juvenile habitats for protection and food. Considering the rapid degradation of coastal marine habitats worldwide, it is important to evaluate which species are more susceptible to loss of juvenile nursery habitats and how this differs across large biogeographic regions. Here we used a meta-analysis approach to investigate habitat use by juvenile reef fish species in tropical coastal ecosystems across the globe. Densities of juvenile fish species were compared among mangrove, seagrass and coral reef habitats. In the Caribbean, the majority of species showed significantly higher juvenile densities in mangroves as compared to seagrass beds and coral reefs, while for the Indo-Pacific region seagrass beds harbored the highest overall densities. Further analysis indicated that differences in tidal amplitude, irrespective of biogeographic region, appeared to be the major driver for this phenomenon. In addition, juvenile reef fish use of mangroves increased with increasing water salinity. In the Caribbean, species of specific families (e.g. Lutjanidae, Haemulidae) showed a higher reliance on mangroves or seagrass beds as juvenile habitats than other species, whereas in the Indo-Pacific family-specific trends of juvenile habitat utilization were less apparent. The findings of this study highlight the importance of incorporating region-specific tidal inundation regimes into marine spatial conservation planning and ecosystem based management. Furthermore, the significant role of water salinity and tidal access as drivers of mangrove fish habitat use implies that changes in seawater level and rainfall due to climate change may have important effects on how juvenile reef fish use nearshore seascapes in the future.     

气候速度影响下中国周边海域鲨鱼保护优先区识别

鲨鱼在气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响下面临着种群衰退的风险,开展鲨鱼保护优先区研究是鲨鱼保护行动的重要工作.将气候速度引入鲨鱼保护优先区的识别过程,旨在阐明中国周边海域鲨鱼现状保护成效和保护空缺,并预测气候速度影响下的鲨鱼保护优先区空间格局及其变化趋势.以集成物种分布模型模拟的146种鲨鱼栖息地作为保护对象,以2015年至2100年两种气候变化情景下的气候速度作为保护的机会成本,基于系统保护规划理论模拟现状和未来情景下的鲨鱼保护优先区选址方案.研究结果表明：（1）长江口以南至台湾海峡和北部湾近岸海域为鲨鱼多样性分布的主要区域,台湾海峡区域亦为珍稀濒危物种的重要分布区;（2）在两种气候情景下,南海中南部将面临较高的气候变化风险,而长江口以南至珠江口的近岸海域气候速度均相对较低,提示了这些区域或能成为气候变化影响下的生物避难所;（3）现有保护区仅保护了1.33%的海域和不到4%的鲨鱼物种,尚存在较大的保护空缺.当保护海域比例提升至10%时,可覆盖绝大多数鲨鱼物种.而当比例提升至30%时,珍稀濒危物种的栖息地将得到有效保护;（4）气候变化影响下保护优先区选址将发生不同程度的变化,尤其是在中国南海区域,如在保护规划时兼顾气候速度,可在满足相似保护目标的前提下减少保护优先区内25%以上的气候压力,以使其具有较强的应对气候变化潜力。     

Convergence in growth responses of tropical trees to climate driven by water stress

Widely documented for temperate and cold forests in both hemispheres, variations in tree growth responses to climate along environmental gradients have rarely been investigated in the tropics. Seven tree‐ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete (Fabaceae) in the Cerrado tropical forests of Bolivia are used to determine the growth responses to climate along a precipitation gradient. Chronologies are distributed from the humid Guarayos forests (annual precipitation > 1600 mm) in the transition to the Amazonia to the dry‐mesic Chiquitos forests (annual precipitation < 1200 mm) in the proximity to the dry Chaco. On a large spatial scale, radial growth is positively influenced by rainfall and negatively by temperature at the end of the dry season. However, this regional pattern in climate‐tree growth relationship shows differences along the precipitation gradient. Relationships with climate are highly significant and extend over longer periods of the year in sites with low rainfall and extremely severe dry seasons. At wet sites, larger water soil capacity and endogenous forest dynamics partially mask the direct influence of climate on tree growth. Stronger similarities in tree‐growth responses to climate occur between sites in the dry Central Chiquitos and in the transition to the Guarayos forests. In contrast, the relationships show fewer similarities between sites in the humid Guarayos. We conclude that growth responses to climate in the tropics are more similar between sites with limited rainfall and severe and prolonged dry seasons. Our study points to a convergence in the patterns of growth responses of tropical trees to climate, modulated by scarce rainfall and marked seasonality. The negative impact of water deficits on tree physiological processes induces not only the documented reduction in forest species richness, but also a convergence in tree‐growth responses to climate in dry tropical forests.     

Human activities and climate variability drive fast‐paced change across the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea‐land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.     

Long‐term change within a Neotropical forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to disturbance and drought

Disentangling the relative roles of biotic and abiotic forces influencing forest structure, function, and local community composition continues to be an important goal in ecology. Here, utilizing two forest surveys 20‐year apart from a Central American dry tropical forest, we assess the relative role of past disturbance and local climatic change in the form of increased drought in driving forest dynamics. We observe: (i) a net decrease in the number of trees; (ii) a decrease in total forest biomass by 7.7 Mg ha^?1 but when calculated on subquadrat basis the biomass per unit area did not change indicating scale sensitivity of forest biomass measures; (iii) that the decrease in the number of stems occurred mainly in the smallest sizes, and in more moist and evergreen habitats; (iv) that there has been an increase in the proportion of trees that are deciduous, compound leaved and are canopy species, and a concomitant reduction in trees that are evergreen, simple‐leaved, and understory species. These changes are opposite to predictions based on recovery from disturbance, and have resulted in (v) a uniform multivariate shift from a more mesic to a more xeric forest. Together, our results show that over relatively short time scales, community composition and the functional dominance may be more responsive to climate change than recovery to past disturbances. Our findings point to the importance of assessing proportional changes in forest composition and not just changes in absolute numbers. Our findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that tropical tree species exhibit differential sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Predicted future decreases in rainfall may result in quick differential shifts in forest function, physiognomy, and species composition. Quantifying proportional functional composition offers a basis for a predictive framework for how the structure, and diversity of tropical forests will respond to global change.     

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology,evolution and climate science

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.     

Tropical Fishes Dominate Temperate Reef Fish Communities within Western Japan

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008–2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources.     

Large‐scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long‐term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end‐of‐the‐century changes based on a high‐greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long‐term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two‐step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end‐of‐the‐century (2080–2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.     

Relative sea‐level change regulates organic carbon accumulation in coastal habitats

Because coastal habitats store large amounts of organic carbon (C_org), the conservation and restoration of these habitats are considered to be important measures for mitigating global climate change. Although future sea‐level rise is predicted to change the characteristics of these habitats, its impact on their rate of C_org sequestration is highly uncertain. Here we used historical depositional records to show that relative sea‐level (RSL) changes regulated C_org accumulation rates in boreal contiguous seagrass–saltmarsh habitats. Age–depth modeling and geological and biogeochemical approaches indicated that C_org accumulation rates varied as a function of changes in depositional environments and habitat relocations. In particular, C_org accumulation rates were enhanced in subtidal seagrass meadows during times of RSL rise, which were caused by postseismic land subsidence and climate change. Our findings identify historical analogs for the future impact of RSL rise driven by global climate change on rates of C_org sequestration in coastal habitats.     

Evaluating the role of contracting and expanding rainforest in initiating cycles of speciation across the Isthmus of Panama

Climatic and geological changes across time are presumed to have shaped the rich biodiversity of tropical regions. However, the impact climatic drying and subsequent tropical rainforest contraction had on speciation has been controversial because of inconsistent palaeoecological and genetic data. Despite the strong interest in examining the role of climatic change on speciation in the Neotropics there has been few comparative studies, particularly, those that include non-rainforest taxa. We used bird species that inhabit humid or dry habitats that dispersed across the Panamanian Isthmus to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of speciation across this barrier. Here, we show that these two assemblages of birds exhibit temporally different speciation time patterns that supports multiple cycles of speciation. Evidence for these cycles is further corroborated by the finding that both assemblages consist of 'young' and 'old' species, despite dry habitat species pairs being geographically more distant than pairs of humid habitat species. The matrix of humid and dry habitats in the tropics not only allows for the maintenance of high species richness, but additionally this study suggests that these environments may have promoted speciation. We conclude that differentially expanding and contracting distributions of dry and humid habitats was probably an important contributor to speciation in the tropics.     

The effects of seasonal and long-term climatic variability on Neotropical flowering phenology: An ecoinformatic analysis of aerial pollen data

The phenological behavior of tropical forests changes in response to seasonal, annual, and long-term variation in temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance. However, detecting the respective influence of these variables is difficult due to the relatively small range of change that is observed in the tropics. Analysis is further constrained by the limited duration of many phenological datasets. To address these limitations, we developed a predictive ecoinformatic model using multivariate linear regression and slope correlation analysis that can uncover statistically significant biological responses within short, noisy ecological time series. Our approach correlates all possible combinations of climatic and taxonomic variables using a series of random determination trials on shuffled environmental data. Seasonal and annual fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, and sunlight were used to predict the reproductive response of each individual taxon. This predictive model was applied to two seasonally sampled aerial pollen records collected between 1996 and 2006 from two Panamanian forests, Barro Colorado Island and Parque Nacional San Lorenzo. Our results highlight the degree to which pollen output responds to fine-scale variability in climate. Our results lend support to the hypothesis that the pollen output of tropical species is diminished with prolonged periods of heavy rainfall and that pollen output is sensitive to small, seasonal increases in temperature. Our ecoinformatic approach can be expanded to other observational phenological datasets to better understand how communities will respond to climate change and our results demonstrate the ability of aerial pollen data to track long-term changes in flowering phenology.