A statistical model of laboratory death rate measurements for airborne bacteria

Summary From 270 published laboratory airborne death rate measurements, two regression models relating the death rate constant for 15 bacterial species to aerosol age in the dark, Gram reaction, temperature, and an evaporation factor which is a function of RH and temperature were obtained. The independent variables accounted for 94% of the variation in the data for each of the two models. In both models the regression shows an increased survival rate with aerosol age accounting for approximately 90% of the total variation in the data. The remainder of the total variation was explained by temperature and RH (in interaction with the Gram reaction) in one model and by the evaporation function (in interaction with the Gram reaction) in the order model. Death rate data for gaseous atmospheric contamination, and light experiments were too few for building a regression model. In addition, these points were not well fit by the model indicating further research is needed to prepare realistic prediction models for airborne bacterial survival.     

A delay recruitment model of the cardiovascular control system

We develop a nonlinear delay-differential equation for the human cardiovascular control system, and use it to explore blood pressure and heart rate variability under short-term baroreflex control. The model incorporates an intrinsically stable heart rate in the absence of nervous control, and allows us to compare the baroreflex influence on heart rate and peripheral resistance. Analytical simplifications of the model allow a general investigation of the rôles played by gain and delay, and the effects of ageing.     

A structured erythropoiesis model with nonlinear cell maturation velocity and hormone decay rate

We develop a quasilinear structured model that describes the regulation of erythropoiesis, the process in which red blood cells are developed. In our model, the maturation velocity of precursor cells is assumed to be a function of the erythropoietin hormone, and the decay rate of this hormone is assumed to be a function of the number of precursor cells, unlike other models which assume these parameters to be constants. Existence-uniqueness results are established and convergence of a finite difference approximation to the unique solution of the model is obtained. The finite difference scheme is then used to investigate the effects of these nonlinear parameters on the model dynamics. Our results show that a velocity of precursor cells maturation rate which is an increasing function of the hormone level and a decay rate of the hormone which is an increasing function of the number of precursor cells have a stabilizing effect on the dynamics of the model. While assuming that one parameter is a function and letting the other be a constant stabilizes the oscillations in the mature cells level, the effect is more significant when both parameters are taken to be functions. A study of robustness with respect to the forms of these functions and parameter sensitivity is also carried out.     

A stochastic discrete generation birth,continuous death population growth model and its approximate solution

This paper describes a single species growth model with a stochastic population size dependent number of births occurring at discrete generation times and a continuous population size dependent death rate. An integral equation for a suitable transformation of the limiting population size density function is not in general soluble, but a Gram-Charlier representation procedure, previously used in storage theory, is successfully extended to cover this problem. Examples of logistic and Gompertz type growth are used to illustrate the procedure, and to compare with growth models in random environments. Comments on the biological consequences of these models are also given.Currently at Department of Mathematics, University of MarylandWork partially supported by the Danish Natural Science Research Council and Monash University     

Research of population with impulsive perturbations based on dynamics of a neutral delay equation and ecological quality system

This paper studies the global behaviors of a nonlinear autonomous neutral delay differential population model with impulsive perturbation. This model may be suitable for describing the dynamics of population with long larval and short adult phases. It is shown that the system may have global stability of the extinction and positive equilibria, or grow without being bounded under some conditions.     

The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model

In this paper, we develop the theory of a state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and apply it to examine the asymptomatic transmission model. We formulate a renewal integral equation system to describe the invasion of infectious diseases into a multistate class age structured host population. We define the state-reproduction number for a class age structured system, which is the net reproduction number of a specific host type and which plays an analogous role to the type-reproduction number [M.G. Roberts, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270 (2003) 1359; J.A.P. Heesterbeek, M.G. Roberts, The type-reproduction number T in models for infectious disease control, Math. Biosci. 206 (2007) 3] in discussing the critical level of public health intervention. The renewal equation formulation permits computations not only of the state-reproduction number, but also of the generation time and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious diseases.Subsequently, the basic theory is applied to capture the dynamics of a directly transmitted disease within two types of infected populations, i.e., asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, in which the symptomatic class is observable and hence a target host of the majority of interventions. The state-reproduction number of the symptomatic host is derived and expressed as a measurable quantity, leading to discussion on the critical level of case isolation. The serial interval and other epidemiologic indices are computed, clarifying the parameters on which these indices depend. As a practical example, we illustrate the eradication threshold for case isolation of smallpox. The generation time and serial interval are comparatively examined for pandemic influenza.     

脉冲捕获捕食者与食饵具阶段结构的捕食-食饵模型

研究脉冲捕获捕食者与食饵具阶段结构的捕食-食饵模型.利用频闪映射理论,得到食饵灭绝的周期解是全局吸引的;运用时滞脉冲微分方程理论,证明了此系统是持久的.本文的结论为生态保护提供了可靠的策略依据.     

A life‐history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments

Current understanding of life‐history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non‐stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics.     

A role-type model (rope) and its application in assessing climate change impacts on forest landscapes

Gap-phase replacement is a general phenomenon found in forest ecosystems, worldwide. Different tree species can be expected to produce different sizes of gaps when they die. Species also vary in their regeneration success in gaps of different sizes. In this paper, the gap-phase interactions among tree species in a forest stand are simulated by a role-type stand model called ROPE. By incorporation of environmental effects on tree height, ROPE can simulate forest composition and stand leaf area under different climate conditions. The model was developed for forest ecosystems in northeastern China and was used to simulate the forest landscape structures under current climate conditions and under four climate change scenarios for greenhouse gas related warming. These scenarios were obtained from general circulation models developed by different atmospheric research centers. Korean pinebroadleaf mixed forest and larch forest are the major stand types in the study area under present conditions. Under the four climate change scenarios, Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest would be expected to occur only on the higher parts of large mountains. Larch forest only would be found north of the study area. Broadleaf forest would become the dominant vegetation over the study area. Use of the Kappa statistic to test for similarity in spatial maps, indicates that each climate change scenario would result in a significant change of forest distributions.Supported by The United States National Science Foundation Grant BSR-8702333 to University of Virginia.     

A hydraulic-photosynthetic model based on extended HLH and its application to Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens)

Although recent investigations [Ryan, M.G., Yoder, B.J., 1997. Hydraulic limits to tree height and tree growth. Bioscience 47, 235-242; Koch, G.W., Sillett, S.C.,Jennings, G.M.,Davis, S.D., 2004. The limits to tree height. Nature 428, 851-854; Niklas, K.J., Spatz, H., 2004. Growth and hydraulic (not mechanical) constraints govern the scaling of tree height and mass. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 101, 15661-15663; Ryan, M.G., Phillips, N., Bond, B.J., 2006. Hydraulic limitation hypothesis revisited. Plant Cell Environ. 29, 367-381; Niklas, K.J., 2007. Maximum plant height and the biophysical factors that limit it. Tree Physiol. 27, 433-440; Burgess, S.S.O., Dawson, T.E., 2007. Predicting the limits to tree height using statistical regressions of leaf traits. New Phytol. 174, 626-636] suggested that the hydraulic limitation hypothesis (HLH) is the most plausible theory to explain the biophysical limits to maximum tree height and the decline in tree growth rate with age, the analysis is largely qualitative or based on statistical regression. Here we present an integrated biophysical model based on the principle that trees develop physiological compensations (e.g. the declined leaf water potential and the tapering of conduits with heights [West, G.B., Brown, J.H., Enquist, B.J., 1999. A general model for the structure and allometry of plant vascular systems. Nature 400, 664-667]) to resist the increasing water stress with height, the classical HLH and the biochemical limitations on photosynthesis [von Caemmerer, S., 2000. Biochemical Models of Leaf Photosynthesis. CSIRO Publishing, Australia]. The model has been applied to the tallest trees in the world (viz. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens)). Xylem water potential, leaf carbon isotope composition, leaf mass to area ratio at different heights derived from the model show good agreements with the experimental measurements of Koch et al. [2004. The limits to tree height. Nature 428, 851-854]. The model also well explains the universal trend of declining growth rate with age.     

Relationships between the folding rate constant and the topological parameters of small two-state proteins based on general random walk model

In this paper, we propose an analytically tractable model of protein folding based on one-dimensional general random walk. A second-order differential equation for the mean folding time of a single protein is constructed which can be used to derive the observed relationship between the folding rate constant and the number of native contacts. The parameters appearing in the model can be determined by fitting the theoretical prediction to the experimental result. In addition, taking into account the fact that the number of native contacts is almost proportional to the relative contact order, we can also explain the observed relationship between the folding rate constant and the relative contact order.     

A revised secondary structure model for the internal transcribed spacer 2 of the green algae Scenedesmus and Desmodesmus and its implication for the phylogeny of these algae

Secondary structure analysis of 34 internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS-2) sequences showed that the current model for the green algae Scenedesmus and Desmodesmus is not accurate. In particular, helix I of the currently used model showed considerable deviations from our new model. The newly proposed model is supported by many two-sided compensated base pair changes and fully compensated insertions in all four helices. Phylogenetic analysis by maximum parsimony based on the new alignment confirmed the recent division of the old genus Scenedesmus into the new genera Scenedesmus and Desmodesmus. However, the analysis was not able to show phylogenetic relationships within these two genera. Hence, the ITS-2 region alone is not suitable for clarifying the phylogeny of Scenedesmus and Desmodesmus and new regions have to be found for future sequence analyses.     

A method of determining rooting depth from a terrestrial biosphere model and its impacts on the global water and carbon cycle

We outline a method of inferring rooting depth from a Terrestrial Biosphere Model by maximizing the benefit of the vegetation within the model. This corresponds to the evolutionary principle that vegetation has adapted to make best use of its local environment. We demonstrate this method with a simple coupled biosphere/soil hydrology model and find that deep rooted vegetation is predicted in most parts of the tropics. Even with a simple model like the one we use, it is possible to reproduce biome averages of observations fairly well. By using the optimized rooting depths global Annual Net Primary Production (and transpiration) increases substantially compared to a standard rooting depth of one meter, especially in tropical regions that have a dry season. The decreased river discharge due to the enhanced evaporation complies better with observations. We also found that the optimization process is primarily driven by the water deficit/surplus during the dry/wet season for humid and arid regions, respectively. Climate variability further enhances rooting depth estimates. In a sensitivity analysis where we simulate changes in the water use efficiency of the vegetation we find that vegetation with an optimized rooting depth is less vulnerable to variations in the forcing. We see the main application of this method in the modelling communities of land surface schemes of General Circulation Models and of global Terrestrial Biosphere Models. We conclude that in these models, the increased soil water storage is likely to have a significant impact on the simulated climate and the carbon budget, respectively. Also, effects of land use change like tropical deforestation are likely to be larger than previously thought.     

A model of biocomplexity and its application to the analysis of some terrestrial and marsh eukaryotic microbial communities with an emphasis on amoeboid protists

Biocomplexity theory has become increasingly important in understanding ecosystem dynamics as we realize that the interactions among subunits in a multi-component system often produce elaborate states that are not easily explained in terms of the individual parts of the system. A Euclidean geometric model of biocomplexity is presented and illustrated using protistan communities. The model is based on three quantitative biotic dimensions (indices) for small subsamples (0.01 g) taken from each sample core of substratum: (1) richness of morphospecies expressed as mean count per 0.01 g, (2) spatial diversity of protists expressed as then umber of unique morphospecies (i.e. those occurring in only one of the 0.01-g subsamples and not in any of the other subsamples), and (3) patchiness (non-uniform aggregation) of the distribution of protists across the 0.01-g subsamples. These three indices are mapped into a three-dimensional Euclidean space model, and the position of each point and its geometric distance from the origin are used as a general index of biocomplexity. The usefulness of the model is illustrated by applying it to a range of terrestrial and marsh communities. Within the set of 15 samples examined in this study, the marsh rhizosphere samples are among the most complex.     

A model to predict and assess the impacts of hydrologic changes on terrestrial ecosystems in The Netherlands,and its use in a climate scenario

Current water management policy in The Netherlands aims to serve a multitude of land use functions, such as agriculture, industry, shipping, and drinking water supply. To attune this policy to the diversity of functions, computer models are used to predict the consequences of various policy options as a part of PAWN: the government's Policy Analysis of Water management for The Netherlands.Nature conservation and development is a relatively new aspect of water management policy. This article describes the PAWN model DEMNAT, which is designed to predict the impact of hydrologic changes on terrestrial ecosystems in The Netherlands. The main components of the model are explained and the predicted effects of an assumed climatic change are discussed.     

A model for the calmodulin-peptide complex based on the troponin C crystal packing and its similarity to the NMR structure of the calmodulin-myosin light chain kinase peptide complex.

In the crystal structure of troponin C, the holo C-domain is bound in a head-to-tail fashion to the A-helix of the apo N-domain of a symmetry-related molecule. Using this interaction, we have proposed a model for the calmodulin-peptide complex. We find that the interaction of the C-domain with the A-helix is similar to that observed in the NMR structure of the calmodulin-myosin light chain kinase (MLCK) peptide complex. This similarity in binding has enabled us to make a precise sequence alignment of the target peptides in the calmodulin-binding cleft and to rationalize the amino acid sequence-dependent binding strengths of various peptides. Our model differs from that proposed by Strynadka and James (Proteins Struct. Funct. Genet. 7, 234-248, 1990) in that the peptides are rotated by 100 degrees in the calmodulin binding cleft.