Secular trends of demographic parameters

The aim of this paper is to describe the secular changes of selected demographic parameters and to investigate the possible causes for such changes as well as the biological relevance. We took into account the following parameters: population density, mean live expectancy, average age at marriage of until then unmarried persons, rate of live births, and number of children per woman. The results show that the population density (global and in Germany) especially in the twentieth century increased dramatically. We found a striking increase of life expectancy in Germany. Essential causes are rapid decreases in infant and maternal mortality. Since the 80s of the twentieth century the average age at marriage of until then unmarried persons as well as the number of single mothers show a permanent increase. Generally, the average age of mothers increased (for live and legitimate births). In the past 150 years we found a decrease in fertility rates in Germany. The registered demographic parameters show temporal and regional variations. These differences, especially between East Germany and West Germany, are emphasized.     

Reproductive life of some Gujar women of Punjab

Data was collected on current age, age at menarche, marriage age, maternal age at 1st birth, age at the birth of last child, age at menopause, total number of conceptions, live births, stillbirths, abortions, dead children and living children for a sample of 150 Gunjar women of Punjab, India, during September and October 1977 to study their reproductive life. The women ranged in age from 45-55 years. The mean age at menarche was 14.90 years for the sample. The median age at menopause was 46.20 years. The mean age at marriage of the present sample was 12.56+-2.50 years; the mean age of the mother at the birth of her 1st child was 16.85 years; and the mean age at the birth of the last child was 38.68 years. The average number of conceptions was 7.2; the average number of live births of these 150 women was 6.90. The fertility of this population was natural as they were not using any family planning method.     

A general measure of human population growth regulation

A general measure relating the relative effects of mortality and fertility in damping population growth has been derived from stable population theory. This measure, called the Index of Growth Regulation, can be calculated from a life table and a fertility schedule. It is a single number which integrates the fertility and mortality aspects of a population. It has intuitive meaning, and can be related to social aspects of the population. It can be used to compare any two populations, and for this purpose it has advantages over traditional comparative statistics such as life expectancy, which consider only mortality. By selecting life tables representing general stages of human cultural evolution, it has been shown that hunting-gathering populations were regulated more by mortality than by fertility factors. That is, more growth which could have occurred did not occur due to the incidence of mortality than to the incidence of infecundity. The two forces were of about equal weight before the industrial revolution, and fertility has had a predominant role in population regulation since the beginning of industrialization.     

Main results of recent Hungarian family planning studies.

The Hungarian Central Statistical Office has carried out five different sample surveys in the last fifteen years for investigating more closely questions of fertility, family planning and birth control. The study summarizes the main findings. Some of these surveys applied retrospective methods to investigate fertility, family planning and birth control bahaviour of females in the past. Surveys of another type tried to reveal in perspective manner, with longitudinal observation of the couples, changes which took place in family planning and birth control ideas and practice. The main purpose of recent population policy measures was to ensure simple reproduction of the population. As a result of the measures taken in 1974 to increase the number of births the birth-rate went up significantly. This increase (30% as compared to 1973) appeared primarily for the second birth which constitutes 62% of the increment in births in 1974, 31% is accounted for by an 11% increase in the first births. The number of third births rose by 13% and their relative share remained 10%. The number of fourthand further births did not increase and their relative share decreased by 1%. Fertility data of 1974 show that the birth-rate increase was not in line with the intended aim, i.e. it was not the number of third births that increased. The net reproduction coefficient showing long-range growth of the population calculated with birth-rate of 1974, has developed favourably, it was over unity for the first time since 1958 (it was about 1.05). The birth-rate increased in 1974 in every age-group of females. The largest increase (19%) occurred for females 25-34 years old. Though it was 16% also for females under 24. According to a sample survey investigating the number of intended children by married females under 35 it did not increase as compared to data of previous surveys of similiar character. The differences is that the proportion of those who wished to have two children increased, while of those who wished to have one or three and more children decreased. The study deals also with changes in the relative shares of intended children by females under 35 who are now to be married. In the concluding part of the study the femeles' attitude to birth control and changes in this field are discussed.     

Life Expectancy in a Large Cohort of Type 2 Diabetes Patients Treated in Primary Care (ZODIAC-10)

Background

Most longitudinal studies showed increased relative mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus until now. As a result of major changes in treatment regimes over the past years, with more stringent goals for metabolic control and cardiovascular risk management, improvement of life expectancy should be expected. In our study, we aimed to assess present-day life expectancy of type 2 diabetes patients in an ongoing cohort study.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We included 973 primary care type 2 diabetes patients in a prospective cohort study, who were all participating in a shared care project in The Netherlands. Vital status was assessed from May 2001 till May 2007. Main outcome measurement was life expectancy assessed by transforming actual survival time to standardised survival time allowing adjustment for the baseline mortality rate of the general population. At baseline, mean age was 66 years, mean HbA_1c 7.0%. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 165 patients died (78 from cardiovascular causes), and 17 patients were lost to follow-up. There were no differences in life expectancy in subjects with type 2 diabetes compared to life expectancy in the general population. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, concentrating on the endpoints ‘all-cause’ and cardiovascular mortality, a history of cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio (HR) 1.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23–2.37), and HR 2.59 (95% CI 1.56–4.28); and albuminuria: HR 1.72 (95% CI 1.26–2.35), and HR 1.83 (95% CI 1.17–2.89), respectively, were significant predictors, whereas smoking, HbA_1c, systolic blood pressure and diabetes duration were not.

Conclusions

This study shows a normal life expectancy in a cohort of subjects with type 2 diabetes patients in primary care when compared to the general population. A history of cardiovascular disease and albuminuria, however, increased the risk of a reduction of life expectancy. These results show that, in a shared care environment, a normal life expectancy is achievable in type 2 diabetes patients.     

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.     

Prognostic significance of hemoglobin A1c level in patients hospitalized with coronary artery disease. A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model

Methods

The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years).

Results

The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years.

Conclusions

Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.     

Fertility patterns after appendicectomy: historical cohort study

Surgical exploration for suspected appendicitis is the most common acute abdominal operation in children and young adults. However, in 20-30% of such explorations, the appendix is not inflamed. It is commonly thought that a perforated appendix may result in tubal dysfunction because of peritoneal adhesions after inflammation and a subsequent increased risk for extrauterine pregnancy and female infertility. Findings are reported from an examination of fertility patterns in women who had their appendix removed in childhood. 9840 women under age 15 years when they underwent appendicectomy between 1964 and 1983 were age-matched with 47,590 control women from the Swedish general population and followed until 1994. Women with a history of perforated appendix had a similar rate of first birth as the control women, as well as a similar distribution of parity at the end of follow-up. Women who had had a normal appendix removed had an increased rate of first births, and on average had their first child at an earlier age and reached a higher parity than control women. These findings therefore suggest that a history of perforated appendix in childhood does not seem to have long-term negative consequences upon female fertility.     

Variability of anthropometric traits at birth in healthy children and children suffering from acute respiratory diseases in the first year of life

Variation of 5 anthropometric traits at birth in groups of normal children who had suffered from acute respiratory diseases during their first year of life was studied in Russian migrant and native population inhabiting the Western area of Baikal-Amur Railway. It was shown that affected children from migrant and native population had lower average values of all traits, as compared with normal children. In order to reduce the number of variable, the principal component analysis was applied. Stronger similarity was found between groups of normal children from native and migrant populations than between normal children and affected children from one population. This can be the evidence of the formation of similar adaptive norm for children from both Russian populations.     

Life Expectancy and the Timing of Life History Events in Developing Countries

Life history theory predicts that greater extrinsic mortality will lead to earlier and higher fertility. To test this prediction, I examine the relationship between life expectancy at birth and several proxies for life history traits (ages at first sex and first marriage, total fertility rate, and ideal number of children), measured for both men and women. Data on sexual behaviors come from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Two separate samples are analyzed: a cross-sectional sample of 62 countries and a panel sample that includes multiple cross-sectional panels from 48 countries. Multivariate regression analysis is used to control for potential confounding variables. The results provide only partial support for the predictions, with greater support among women than men. However, the prediction is not supported in sub-Saharan African countries, most likely owing to the nonequilibrium conditions observed in sub-Saharan Africa with respect to life expectancy. The applicability of the model to understanding HIV/AIDS risk behaviors is discussed.     

Do high-status people really have fewer children?

Evolutionary discussions regarding the relationship between social status and fertility in the contemporary U.S. typically claim that the relationship is either negative or absent entirely. The published data on recent generations of Americans upon which such statements rest, however, are solid with respect to women but sparse and equivocal for men. In the current study, we investigate education and income in relation to age at first child, childlessness, and number of children for men and women in two samples—one of the general American population and one of graduates of an elite American university. We find that increased education is strongly associated with delayed childbearing in both sexes and is also moderately associated with decreased completed or near-completed fertility. Women in the general population with higher adult income have fewer children, but this relationship does not hold within all educational groups, including our sample with elite educations. Higher-income men, however, do not have fewer children in the general population and in fact have lower childlessness rates. Further, higher income in men is positively associated with fertility among our sample with elite educations as well as within the general population among those with college educations. Such findings undermine simple statements on the relationship between status and fertility.     

Genetic-epidemiologic study of reproductive outcomes in the Ozersk population,located in "Maiak" control area

In the population of Ozyorsk town situated in the control area of the nuclear enterprise (Production Association "Mayak") the number of pregnancies and its outcomes was studied in cohort of 2.258 women of completed fertility. The mean number of pregnancies per woman is 5.6 +/- 0.07. The mean size of family is 1.9 +/- 0.02. It was estimated that 2.7% of women had no pregnancies, 4.0% of women had no delivery till the end of their reproductive performance. 4.65% of women contributed nothing to the genofond of the next generation, i.e., they had not any children lived till their reproductive performance (20 years). The Crow Index of Opportunity for Selection and its components connected with differential fertility and differential mortality were estimated. In the population under study tow components of selection--selection at the prenatal stages (72.6%) and selection associated with infertility--are shown to be significant.     

Fertility levels and trends in Arsi and Shoa regions of Central Ethiopia

Levels and trends of fertility in the Arsi and Shoa regions of Central Ethiopia are examined, using data from the 1986 Population, Health and Nutrition baseline survey of the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia. The population has high fertility. Total fertility of six children per woman in the late 1960s increased to eight children per woman in the early 1980s, then declined to seven children per woman in the mid-1980s. Urban fertility declined by a substantial amount during the 15 years before the survey while rural fertility increased during the same period. The implications of high fertility are considered.     

Fertility control as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger (Meles meles) populations in south-west England: predictions from a spatial stochastic simulation model.

A spatial stochastic simulation model was used to assess the potential of fertility control, based on a yet-to-be-developed oral bait-delivered contraceptive directed at females, for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in south-west England. The contraceptive had a lifelong effect so that females rendered sterile in any particular year remained so for the rest of their lives. The efficacy of fertility control alone repeated annually for varying periods of time was compared with a single culling operation and integrated control involving an initial single cull followed by annually repeated fertility control. With fertility control alone, in no instance was the disease eradicated completely while a viable badger population (mean group size of at least one individual) was still maintained. Near eradication of the disease (less than 1% prevalence) combined with the survival of a minimum viable badger population was only achieved under a very limited set of conditions, either with high efficiency of control (95%) over a short time period (1-3 years) or a low efficiency of control (20%) over an intermediate time period (10-20 years). Under these conditions, it took more than 20 years for the disease to decline to such low levels. A single cull of 80% efficiency succeeded in near eradication of the disease (below 1% prevalence) after a period of 6-8 years, while still maintaining a viable badger population. Integrated strategies reduced disease prevalence more rapidly and to lower levels than culling alone, although the mean badger group size following the onset of control was smaller. Under certain integrated strategies, principally where a high initial cull (80%) was followed by fertility control over a short (1-3 year) time period, the disease could be completely eradicated while a viable badger population was maintained. However, even under the most favourable conditions of integrated control, it took on average more than 12 years following the onset of control for the disease to disappear completely from the badger population. These results show that whilst fertility control would not be a successful strategy for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers if used alone, it could be effective if used with culling as part of an integrated strategy. This type of integrated strategy is likely to be more effective in terms of disease eradication than a strategy employing culling alone. However, the high cost of developing a suitable fertility control agent, combined with the welfare and conservation implications, are significant factors which should be taken into account when considering its possible use as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in the UK.     

The determination of hepatitis A antibodies in epidemiological practice

Epidemiological analysis of hepatitis A morbidity in a city with the population of 500,000 persons in 1960-1987 was carried out. Three periods of morbidity rises among children aged 3-6 years and 7-14 years and living at the same areas (microdistricts) were established. Blood sera from healthy children were tested for the presence of antibodies to hepatitis A in enzyme immunoassay. The data on the sanitary and bacteriological study of tap water were analyzed. Unsatisfactory results of water analysis in different microdistricts correlated with the presence of antibodies in the population of these microregions and with the average morbidity indices for many years.     

New approaches to the pre- and post-contact history of Arctic peoples.

The last few years have witnessed the addition of new techniques and research strategies to the study of the population history of Arctic peoples. Osteon-photon analysis of bone cores provides an improved method of assigning age at death to skeletons. Consequently, it is possible to improve calculations of life expectancy and relate them to pathological correlates such as osteoporosis, separate neural arches, spina bifida and arthritis along with regular growth changes. This capability enables much better utilization of pre-contact skeletons and therefore of the numbers, density and composition of populations before European contact. The general picture emerging from skeletal studies, census records and living populations is, in Arctic Eskimos, one of high fertility, high mortality and short length of life, with a slow population growth rate. Aleuts show lower fertility, lower mortality and longer length of life, also with a low population growth rate.     

Biosocial covariates of adult male body mass index in Central India

Body mass index (BMI) is the 'measuring rod' of nutritional status. This study investigates the type and extent of correlation between adult male BMI and socioeconomic, cultural and bio-demographical variables using data from 11,496 individuals from 38 districts of Central India. For each individual, stature, body weight and sitting height data were collected, their Cormic index and BMI computed, and averages for each district calculated. Mean BMI was found to be lowest for the population of Tikamgarh (17.90+/-1.91 kg m(-2)) and highest for that of Durg district (19.33+/-2.16 kg m(-2)), whereas the mean BMI for the total population of Central India was 18.67+/-2.18 kg m(-2), which is lower than that of well-to-do individuals in India as a whole. The F ratio indicates that there is inter-district variation in anthropometric characteristics of populations. District-wise biosocial indicators were obtained, namely population density per square kilometre, percentage urban population, percentage of population that is of scheduled caste/tribe, sex ratio, average rural population per PHC/CHC (primary or community health centre), literacy rate, life expectancy, total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, gender development index and human development index. Most of these variables were found to be significantly correlated with each other, but BMI was only significantly correlated with three of them, viz. gender development index (R2=0.211), life expectancy (R2=0.130) and infant mortality rate (R2=0.128). Gender development index and life expectancy were positively correlated with BMI, whereas infant mortality rate was negatively correlated. It is concluded that if BMI increases then life expectancy will also increase. Thus better nutritional status may be a helpful tool for reducing infant mortality rate, which is an indicator of socioeconomic status, health condition, health care and ultimately overall development of a region or population.     

Life expectancy (ex ) and stable age distribution (Cx ) of Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lep.: Yponomeutidae), exposed to sublethal doses of hexaflumuron

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) is a major pest of crucifers in Iran. In this study, the influence of two sublethal concentrations (LC₁₀ and LC₂₅) of an insect growth regulator, hexaflumuron on life expectancy (e _x ), stable age distribution (C _x ), age-specific fertility (m _x ) and number of fertile eggs per day was investigated. Results showed that the sublethal doses of hexaflumuron decreased life expectancy (e _x ), age-specific fertility (m _x ) and number of fertile eggs per day of P. xylostella. Also stable age distribution (C _x ) of population in next generation was changed and rate of adults in sublethals was increased compared to control. According obtained results, hexaflumuron is a good choice for IPM strategy in controlling the diamondback moth.