棉田生态系统能流经济阈值的初步研究

系统能流经济阈值（ＥＥＴ）为本项研究提出的新概念。它是指系统的初级生产者－作物向其它亚系统输出能量的允许临界值,由此产生的期望收益最大,系统能流经济阈值是一条仅与作用现丰量相关的动态曲线,与其他亚系统无直接关系,本文以末施药棉田为系统,提出能流经济阈值的研究方法为：建立能流动态模型;确定害虫防治代价,计算期望产出,运用计算机仿真语言对作物的能流输出参数进行优化并建立系统能流经济阈值模型。     

水稻一稻纵卷叶螟-天敌系统的优化管理

本研究是在水稻群体生长模型和纵卷叶螟种群生命系统模拟模型的基础上进行的。通过耦台水稻与纵卷叶螟相互关系模型,模拟了水稻-纵卷叶螟-天敌系统动态,估算了在不同条件下纵卷叶螟的产量损失率,结合经济核算确定不同条件组合下的经济阈值(多维动态经济阈值)。我们从稻田生态系统的整体出发,给出了稻纵卷叶螟管理系统流程图,图中将决策区分为趋势决策和实时决策,寓测报和防治于一体,以优化管理为目的。     

粘虫危害小麦的动态经济阈值的研究

本文报道了冬小麦生态系统中小麦、粘虫和粘虫的一种主要天敌——中华星步(虫甲)(Colosomachinense)三个亚系统的模型。同时把三个模型耦联起来进行逐日动态模拟确定了小麦不同生育期和中华星步(虫甲)不同密度下的经济阈值。模拟结果表明:粘虫发生越早,经济阈值越小;在小麦同一个生育期,经济阈值随中华星步(虫甲)密度的增加而提高,但显然不是简单的线性关系,而是随着温度和粘虫密度的变化而变化。根据模拟结果,得到河南驻马店地区亩产500斤以上的小麦在没有中华星步(虫甲)时,用粘粘虫散防治的经济阈值在小麦的不同生育期变动在22—34头/米~2之间,用灭幼脲防治时为每平方米14—23头。如果中华星步(虫甲)每100米~2增加2头,则经济阈值可相应地提高1—3头/米~2。     

亚洲玉米螟多元动态经济阈值模拟模型

1985—1989年在武昌研究了亚洲玉米螟种群动态及玉米受害后产量损失,组建了用于玉米螟预测和防治的多元动态经济阈值模型。模型在计算机上显示全部过程,模拟模型经过生产实际检验,效果良好。     

上海郊区甘蓝田鳞翅目害虫的复合动态经济阈值

本文研究了上海郊区甘蓝田鳞翅目害虫复合体(菜青虫Pieris rapae,小菜蛾Plutella xylostella,甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua和斜纹夜蛾ProdenJd litura等。)的动态经济阈值模型,该模型主要包括：(1)叶片生长动态与有效积温回归模型,考虑甘蓝品种和叶片层次等因子;(2)鳞翅目幼虫的高龄菜青虫等价取食系数(ICE),考虑甘蓝叶片层次和虫龄等因子;(3)甘蓝产量损失率模型,考虑甘蓝品种、生育期和叶片层次等因子。以经济允许产量损失率作为决策参数(“黄苗”品种为3.2%,“夏光”品种为1.7%)。由于系统纳入了害虫株内为害分布这一因素,本模型确定的经济阈值具有较宽的值域。下限接于现有经济阈值,上限则大大超过它们。田间应用表明在不影响甘蓝产量的情况下,防治成本平均降低45%。     

三化螟为害水稻的产量损失预测模型

三化螟为害水稻的过程可以看作一个单输入——单输出系统。水稻的产量损失率不仅与蚁螟的为害时间、为害程度有关,而且还与管理措施和气候条件有关。在两个亚系统的二元非线性模式确定以后,给出了产量损失预测模型的一般形式。模型在IBM PC/XT微计算机上实现。     

棉花生长发育模拟模型的研究

本文是根据1984—1985年大田资料建立的一个棉花生长发育模型。模型利用光能辐射,叶面积指数,植株干重等来计算净光合产物,并在各器官之间进行分配。利用生理学时间来预测主茎节数,根据顶芽、腋芽分化的同步序列,来确定果枝数、果节数。单铃重随其生理时间而呈逻辑斯谛克曲线分布: BW=8.2842/(1+e5.2701-0.0073×PT) 并定出蕾铃潜在增长率,根据潜在增长率求出每米~2土地上蕾铃干物质需求量,从营养供求状况来控制雷铃脱落。 根据模型预测,可确定棉花不同生育时期最佳栽培措施;与棉虫动态模型偶联,可研究棉虫动态经济阈值。     

生化反应过程的多变量自校正控制——以重复流加青霉素发酵为例

本文采用两阶离散MIMO(Multi lnput Multi Output)动态模型描述生化反应过程的动态行为,并以青霉素重复流加发酵为例,借助于计算机在线检测系统,在40,OOOL大罐上进行参数辨识与多变量自校正控制仿真研究。结果表明;该控制策略能够克服噪声和过程不确定性影响,使发酵沿最优轨迹进行,实现跟踪优化控制。     

蝇视系统的图形—背景分辨和初级模式分辨

本文通过行为实验及计算机模拟进一步证明,蝇视系统的自发模式辨别可以看作是图形—背景分辨的特殊情况.关键在于蝇的模式分辨是由运动检测器实现的.运动检测器不仅对模式速度反应,也对模式的结构特性反应.本文提出,人视系统的模式分辨也可能部分地由运动检测器来实现.     

中国典型草原放牧草场蝗虫为害损失及经济阈值的估算(英语)

传统上估算蝗虫在放牧草场为害损失的方法几乎都是用来测定对牧草秋季产量的影响,而实际上,在估算放牧草场蝗虫为害损失及经济阈值时,牧草的现存量而非秋季产量是更应考虑的因素.本文提出了一种适合测定蝗虫对牧草现存生物量影响的新方法,即野外挂笼饲养与蝗虫种群动态相结合的估算方法,并在此基础上组建了放牧草场蝗虫种群经济阈值模型;α_0 α_1M_1_α_2M_2_ α_3S_1 α_4S_2=C其中,M_1:狭翅雏蝗生物量;M_2:宽须蚁蝗生物量;S_1:狭翅雏蝗平均个体重量,S_2:宽须蚁蝗平均个体重量;α_0-α_4:常数.同时引入蝗虫种群数量和生物量两项参数来表达蝗虫种群的发生程度.     

Optimal screening for genetic diseases

Screening for genetic diseases is performed in many regions and/or ethnic groups where there is a high prevalence of possibly malign genes. The propagation of such genes can be considered a dynamic externality. Given that many of these diseases are untreatable and give rise to truly tragic outcomes, they are a source of societal concern, and the screening process should perhaps be regulated. This paper incorporates a standard model of genetic propagation into an economic model of dynamic management to derive cost benefit rules for optimal screening. The highly non-linear nature of genetic dynamics gives rise to perhaps surprising results that include discontinuous controls and threshold effects. One insight is that any screening program that is in place for any amount of time should screen all individuals in a target population. The incorporation of genetic models may prove to be useful to several emerging fields in economics such as genoeconomics, neuroeconomics and paleoeconomics.     

A complete enumeration and classification of two-locus disease models

There are 512 two-locus, two-allele, two-phenotype, fully penetrant disease models. Using the permutation between two alleles, between two loci, and between being affected and unaffected, one model can be considered to be equivalent to another model under the corresponding permutation. These permutations greatly reduce the number of two-locus models in the analysis of complex diseases. This paper determines the number of nonredundant two-locus models (which can be 102, 100, 96, 51, 50, or 58, depending on which permutations are used, and depending on whether zero-locus and single-locus models are excluded). Whenever possible, these nonredundant two-locus models are classified by their property. Besides the familiar features of multiplicative models (logical AND), heterogeneity models (logical OR), and threshold models, new classifications are added or expanded: modifying-effect models, logical XOR models, interference and negative interference models (neither dominant nor recessive), conditionally dominant/recessive models, missing lethal genotype models, and highly symmetric models. The following aspects of two-locus models are studied: the marginal penetrance tables at both loci, the expected joint identity-by-descent (IBD) probabilities, and the correlation between marginal IBD probabilities at the two loci. These studies are useful for linkage analyses using single-locus models while the underlying disease model is two-locus, and for correlation analyses using the linkage signals at different locations obtained by a single-locus model.     

Optimal control of population recovery – the role of economic restoration threshold

A variety of ecological systems around the world have been damaged in recent years, either by natural factors such as invasive species, storms and global change or by direct human activities such as overfishing and water pollution. Restoration of these systems to provide ecosystem services entails significant economic benefits. Thus, choosing how and when to restore in an optimal fashion is important, but has not been well studied. Here we examine a general model where population growth can be induced or accelerated by investing in active restoration. We show that the most cost‐effective method to restore an ecosystem dictates investment until the population approaches an ‘economic restoration threshold’, a density above which the ecosystem should be left to recover naturally. Therefore, determining this threshold is a key general approach for guiding efficient restoration management, and we demonstrate how to calculate this threshold for both deterministic and stochastic ecosystems.     

华北棉区第二代棉铃虫的经济阈值

1980—1983年在河北省饶阳县及安徽省濉溪县的不同的土壤肥力类型、不同的棉花品种和不同的栽培管理条件下进行了模拟为害和自然为害的试验,旨在确定第二代棉铃虫Heliothis armigera(Hübner)数量与棉花Gossypium hirsutum L.产量和质量的关系。试验结果表明,棉花对于第二代棉铃虫为害的补偿力很强,这种补偿力随着土壤肥力的提高而增强。棉花品种、年份以及栽培管理方法对补偿力的影响属于次要。通过组建的一个静态模型,收进了二代棉铃虫防治的直接收益与代价以及间接收益与代价,算得高、低肥力地的第二代经济阈值,百株累计卵量分别为332粒和34粒。产量水平在80—90斤的中等偏低肥力地,其阈值可定为60粒。     

Sequential Decision Rules for Managing Nematodes with Crop Rotations

A dynamic model of nematode populations under a crop rotation that includes both host and nonhost crops is developed and used to conceptualize the problem of economic control. The steady state of the dynamic system is used to devise an approximately optimal decision policy, which is then applied to cyst nematode (Heterodera schachtii) control in a rotation of sugarbeet with nonhost crops. Long-run economic returns from this approximately optimal decision rule are compared with results from solution of the exact dynamic optimization model. The simple decision rule based on the steady state provides long-run average returns that are similar to the fully optimal solution. For sugarbeet and H. schachtii, the simplified rule can be calculated by maximizing a relatively simple algebraic expression with respect to the number of years in the sequence of nonhost crops. Maximization is easy because only integers are of interest and the number of years in nonhost crops is typically small. Solution of this problem indirectly yields an approximation to the optimal dynamic economic threshold density of nematodes in the soil. The decision rule requires knowledge of annual nematode population change under host and nonhost crops, and the relationship between crop yield and nematode population density.     

Estimating economic thresholds for pest control: an alternative procedure.

An alternative methodology to determine profit maximizing economic thresholds is developed and illustrated. An optimization problem based on the main biological and economic relations involved in determining a profit maximizing economic threshold is first advanced. From it, a more manageable model of 2 nonsimultaneous reduced-from equations is derived, which represents a simpler but conceptually and statistically sound alternative. The model recognizes that yields and pest control costs are a function of the economic threshold used. Higher (less strict) economic thresholds can result in lower yields and, therefore, a lower gross income from the sale of the product, but could also be less costly to maintain. The highest possible profits will be obtained by using the economic threshold that results in a maximum difference between gross income and pest control cost functions.     

Global eradication of lymphatic filariasis: the value of chronic disease control in parasite elimination programmes

The ultimate goal of the global programme against lymphatic filariasis is eradication through irrevocable cessation of transmission using 4 to 6 years of annual single dose mass drug administration. The costs of eradication, managerial impediments to executing national control programmes, and scientific uncertainty about transmission endpoints, are challenges to the success of this effort, especially in areas of high endemicity where financial resources are limited. We used a combined analysis of empirical community data describing the association between infection and chronic disease prevalence, mathematical modelling, and economic analyses to identify and evaluate the feasibility of setting an infection target level at which the chronic pathology attributable to lymphatic filariasis--lymphoedema of the extremities and hydroceles--becomes negligible in the face of continuing transmission as a first stage option in achieving the elimination of this parasitic disease. The results show that microfilaria prevalences below a threshold of 3.55% at a blood sampling volume of 1 ml could constitute readily achievable and sustainable targets to control lymphatic filarial disease. They also show that as a result of the high marginal cost of curing the last few individuals to achieve elimination, maximal benefits can occur at this threshold. Indeed, a key finding from our coupled economic and epidemiological analysis is that when initial uncertainty regarding eradication occurs and prospects for resolving this uncertainty over time exist, it is economically beneficial to adopt a flexible, sequential, eradication strategy based on controlling chronic disease initially.     

Cost effectiveness analysis of intensive versus conventional follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer

Objective To determine the cost effectiveness of intensive follow up compared with conventional follow up in patients with colorectal cancer.Design Incremental cost effectiveness analysis recognising differences in follow up strategies, based on effectiveness data from a meta-analysis of five randomised trials.Setting United Kingdom.Main outcome measures Taking a health service perspective, estimated incremental costs effectiveness ratios for each life year gained for five trials and four trials designed for early detection of extramural recurrences (targeted surveillance).Results Based on five year follow up, the numbers of life years gained by intensive follow up were 0.73 for the five trial model and 0.82 for the four trial model. For the five trials, the adjusted net (extra) cost for each patient was £2479 (€3550; $4288) and for each life year gained was £3402, substantially lower than the current threshold of NHS cost acceptability (£30 000). The corresponding values for the four trial model were £2529 and £3077, suggesting that targeted surveillance is more cost effective. The main predictor of incremental cost effectiveness ratios was surveillance costs rather than treatment costs. Judged against the NHS threshold of cost acceptability, the predicted incremental cost threshold was ninefold and the effectiveness threshold was 3%.Conclusions Based on the available data and current costs, intensive follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer is economically justified and should be normal practice. There is a continuing need to evaluate the efficacy of specific surveillance tools: this study forms the basis for economic evaluations in such trials.