On the population dynamics of the Australian bushfly

Each spring, the Australian bushfly (Musca vetustissima Walker) migrates from its over-wintering areas located in central Australia and repopulates the south-eastern parts of the continent. In this paper, a simple size-structured model, in the form of a reaction–advection equation with delay, is presented for the evolution of the population density of the bushfly. The model takes into account the important role of cattle dung in its life cycle and includes the effects of wind-borne migration. Bifurcation analyses of the model equations in the absence of wind advection reveals the environmental conditions under which the fly population will die out, reach a stable equilibrium or explode. Numerical simulations which include advection reveal the importance of wind-borne migration in building up the population of flies in south-eastern Australia during the summer months.     

Seasonal population trend of the peach fruit fly (PFF), Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae), in Assiut,Northern Upper Egypt

The population of peach fruit fly during 2011 season increased gradually starting from the fourth week of July to reach its first major peak throughout the second week of September with 1340?flies/trap/day for traps suspended at 1?m height and during the third week of September with 909?flies/trap/day for traps hung at 2?m heights. Afterwards, the population trend showed a slight but gradual declining trend from the third week of September up to the third week of October. The population was then increased to reach its second major peak during the fourth week of October with 696 and 595?flies/trap/day for traps hung at 1 and 2?m heights, respectively. The greatest drop in the trapped population at both trap heights was observed from the second week of November until the end of the season (second week of December). A total of 105270?flies/trap at both 1 and 2?m trap heights during the entire seasons of 2011 were recorded. In 2012 season, the population followed nearly the same trend as that observed during 2011 season with minor variations. One major peak of abundance was recorded during the first week of October with 1344 and 955?flies/trap/day for traps hung at 1 and 2?m, respectively. The second major peak (1104 and 894?flies/trap/day) was observed during the fourth week of October for traps suspended at 1 and 2?m, respectively. A remarkable decrease in the population could be seen from the first week of December until the end of the season (fourth week of December). Statistical analysis of the data showed highly significant differences between fruit fly population captured at 1?m trap height (Mean = 446.9 ± 97?flies/trap/day) and that captured at 2?m trap heights (Mean = 321 ± 72?flies/trap/day) with paired t of 4.7^** and p-value of 0.0001^**.     

Chronology of permethrin resistance in a southern Illinois population of the horn fly (Diptera: Muscidae) during and after selection by pyrethroid use

From 1985 through 1988, horn flies (Haematobia irritans (L)) collected at the Dixon Springs Agricultural Center (DSAC) in southern Illinois were tested in 22 h bioassays for permethrin resistance with residues on cotton cloths. The LC90 for a susceptible field population collected in June 1985 was 0.19 micrograms/cm2. In comparison, flies collected from pyrethroid-tagged cattle in 1985 and 1986 exhibited 25- to 116-fold resistance to permethrin. A 25-fold level of resistance allowed survival on treated cattle 8 wk after pyrethroid tag application. Flies representing the local background population were collected periodically from an untreated herd 2.4 km from the nearest cattle treated with a pyrethroid; these flies exhibited up to 18-fold resistance. Although pyrethroids were not used on DSAC animals after October 1986, all bioassays done in 1987 and 1988 indicated resistance levels of greater than or equal to 7-fold. The 95% confidence intervals for LC90s from all 1987 bioassays overlapped the confidence interval from the corresponding July 1986 estimate for resistant flies collected from pyrethroid-tagged cattle. Although some decline in resistance was evident in 1988, bioassays done at the end of the season produced resistance ratios of 7.4 and 15.3. Survivorship at a diagnostic dose indicated that resistance frequencies remained at 4-8% throughout 1988. Two years' abstinence from pyrethroid use was insufficient to allow an adequate decline in resistance levels.     

Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat‐specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first‐year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high‐quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions.     

Lake outlet blackflies - the dynamics of filter feeders at very high population densities

Larvae of the blackfly Simulium noelleri aggregated at very high population densities (up to 1.2 × 10⁶ individuals m⁻²) at a lake outlet in Kent, United Kingdom. During 1983 and 1984 their first appearance in these large numbers was in late-June and they completed three summer generations before the overwintering larval generation appeared in October. It is not known where the larvae overwinter but they recolonized the concrete steps of this outlet in May, together with larvae of the S. ornatum group which, however, were not found after completing one generation at this location.
Female flies from the overwintering generation oviposited en masse during late-June and the result was a well-synchronized growth of larvae in the first summer generation. Within this, and other generations, there was A wide range of emergence times for adults; they could emerge early and were then relatively small, or could emerge later and were then relatively large. Females were always larger than males and the emergence of flies was protandrous. A very similar pattern of growth and emergence times was found at a site in Finland.
In all generations, sex ratio was biased to males and the sex ratio in each generation was inversely correlated with population density. This ensured that there were sufficient males emerging, and surviving adult mortality, to guarantee fertilisation of the females which were more expensive to produce.     

Climate-driven impacts of prey abundance on the population structure of a tropical aquatic predator

In the present study we explore how annual variation in climate (late wet-season rainfall) affects population demography in a gape-limited obligate piscivorous predator, the Arafura filesnake Acrochordus arafurae in the Australian tropics. These aquatic snakes display extreme sexual dimorphism, with body sizes and relative head sizes of females much larger than those of males. Two consecutive years with low rainfall during the late wet season reduced the abundance of small but not large sized fish. Although snake residual body mass (RBM, calculated from a general linear regression of ln-transformed mass to ln-SVL) decreased after the first year with low prey availability, it was not until the second year that reduced prey abundance caused a dramatic decline in filesnake survival, and hence in population numbers. Thus, our results suggest that most snakes survived the first year of reduced prey abundance, but a successive year with low prey availability proved fatal for many animals. However, the effects of prey scarcity on RBM and survival fell disproportionately on some size classes of snakes. Medium-sized animals (large males and intermediate-sized females) were affected more dramatically than were small or large snakes. We attribute the higher survival of small snakes to their lower energy needs compared to medium-sized individuals, and the higher survival of large snakes to the continued abundance of large prey (mainly large catfish). Two successive years with low abundance of smaller sized prey thus massively modified the size-structure of the filesnake population, virtually eliminating large males and intermediate-sized females. Our field data provide a clear demonstration of the ways in which stochastic variation in climatic conditions can have dramatic effects on predator population demography, mediated via effects on prey availability.     

Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival,infection risk,and population growth

Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85–97% and 64–99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied.     

Microsatellite analysis of the Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae) indicates spatial structuring: implications for population control

The population structure of a tephritid pest species, the Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt), has been analysed over a five year period (1994-1998), using six microsatellites. Adult fly samples were collected to cover most regions of eastern and central Australia where the flies are regularly found. Tests for heterogeneity indicated that flies within geographically defined regions were homogeneous. The samples were allocated into five regions, including one very large region, Queensland, which encompasses that portion of the fly's range where breeding can occur year-round. With one exception, the collections from different regions were homogeneous between years, showing a fairly static distribution of the species. However, differences between regions were highly significant. The one case of a change in frequency between years indicated a gradual replacement of flies in a marginal region by flies from the main part of the range. The finding of stability in the distribution of a highly mobile insect is of interest, potentially also for other species which have expanded beyond their native range. It is argued that a contributing reason for this stability may be adaptation to different climatic regimes, and that strategies for control based on this hypothesis afford a reasonable chance of success.     

Demographic mechanism of a historical bird population collapse reconstructed using museum specimens

Long-term studies of demographic rates provide clues about the external causes of animal population declines, but systematic monitoring is rarely in place until after the decline has occurred. This study evaluates alternative hypotheses about the demographic mechanisms underlying the historical collapse of corncrake (Crexcrex) populations in Britain and Ireland in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries using characteristics of museum specimens. The proportion of adult corncrakes that are 1-year old was estimated from feather characteristics of birds collected before, during and after the population decline and showed a marked transitory reduction during the decline. This pattern would be expected if the decline was caused by a large reduction in the recruitment of young birds to the breeding population and is the opposite of what would be expected if a change in adult survival had caused the decline. These results are consistent with previous suggestions that the corncrake population decline was caused by adverse effects on breeding productivity caused by the mechanization of the harvesting of hay crops.     

A model for fluctuations in the fraction of a bacterial population harboring plasmids

In some experimental situations the fraction of bacteria containing plasmids appears to repeatedly decline and increase before the plasmids are eventually lost in a gradual terminal decline. These fluctuations may not be observed unless the composition of the population is determined at various cell densities. This paper gives a mathematical model for this behavior. In the model the decreases in the fraction of cells bearing plasmids record the appearance of plasmidless offspring cells of plasmid-bearing cells. The increases occur because plasmidless cells obtain plasmids from multicopy donor cells when the cell density is high. The periodic dilution of the medium necessary to permit continued growth of the population in test tubes repeatedly alters the balance of these two factors. The gradual terminal decline in the fraction of cells bearing plasmids is the result of a slight growth rate advantage of plasmidless cells. During the entire process the average copy number of the cells decreases, and the time lag before the final decline is the time required for the average copy number to approach one.     

Fitness decline in spontaneous mutation accumulation lines of Caenorhabditis elegans with varying effective population sizes

The rate and fitness effects of new mutations have been investigated by mutation accumulation (MA) experiments in which organisms are maintained at a constant minimal population size to facilitate the accumulation of mutations with minimal efficacy of selection. We evolved 35 MA lines of Caenorhabditis elegans in parallel for 409 generations at three population sizes (N = 1, 10, and 100), representing the first spontaneous long-term MA experiment at varying population sizes with corresponding differences in the efficacy of selection. Productivity and survivorship in the N = 1 lines declined by 44% and 12%, respectively. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N = 1 lines are estimated to be 16.4% for productivity and 11.8% for survivorship. Larger populations (N = 10 and 100) did not suffer a significant decline in fitness traits despite a lengthy and sustained regime of consecutive bottlenecks exceeding 400 generations. Together, these results suggest that fitness decline in very small populations is dominated by mutations with large deleterious effects. It is possible that the MA lines at larger population sizes contain a load of cryptic deleterious mutations of small to moderate effects that would be revealed in more challenging environments.     

Estimating tsetse population parameters: application of a mathematical model with density-dependence

A density-dependent model is used to describe the dynamics of an open population of tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae). Immigration (or emigration) takes place when the total population is below (or above) a biologically determined threshold value. The population is also subjected to birth and death rates, as well as to the risk of being trapped (continuously or intermittently). During trapping the population decreases toward a 'low' equilibrium population and when trapping ceases the population starts recovering and increases toward a 'high' equilibrium. The model is fitted using data collected on trapped flies in four experiments. The first one was conducted with 'intermittent trapping' (i.e. several trapping-recovery cycles) on Glossina fuscipes fuscipes Newstead in the Central African Republic (Bangui area). In the other experiments, trapping data on Glossina palpalis palpalis (Robineau-Desvoidy) was collected in 'aggregate' form over several days at a time. Two of these were in Congo-Brazzaville (Bouenza area) and one in the Ivory Coast (Vavoua focus). Estimates are derived for the low and high equilibrium values as well as the trapping rate. The estimated effect of sustained trapping is to reduce the population to low equilibrium values that are 85-87% lower than the levels without trapping. The effects of the natural intrinsic growth and of the migration flows cannot be estimated separately because in the model they are mathematically indistinguishable.     

Maternal effects on offspring size in a natural population of the viviparous tsetse fly

1. Theory predicts that mothers should adaptively adjust reproductive investment depending on current reserves and future reproductive opportunities. Females in better intrinsic state, or with more resources, should invest more in current reproduction than those with fewer resources. Across the lifespan, investment may increase as future reproductive opportunities decline, yet may also decline with reductions in intrinsic state. 2. Across many species, larger mothers produce larger offspring, but there is no theoretical consensus on why this is so. This pattern may be driven by variation in maternal state such as nutrition, yet few studies measure both size and nutritional state or attempt to tease apart confounding effects of size and age. 3. Viviparous tsetse flies (Glossina species) offer an excellent system to explore patterns of reproductive investment: females produce large, single offspring sequentially over the course of their relatively long life. Thus, per‐brood reproductive effort can be quantified by offspring size. 4. While most tsetse reproduction research has been conducted on laboratory colonies, maternal investment was investigated in this study using a unique field method where mothers were collected as they deposited larvae, allowing simultaneous mother‐offspring measurements under natural conditions. 5. It was found that larger mothers and those with a higher fat content produced larger offspring, and there was a trend for older mothers to produce slightly larger offspring. 6. The present results highlight the importance of measuring maternal nutritional state, rather than size alone, when considering maternal investment in offspring. Implications for understanding vector population dynamics are also discussed.     

Influence of the population size on the frequency of flies infected by sigma virus in populations of Drosophila melanogaster

The frequency of flies infected by the hereditary, noncontagious rhabdovirus sigma has been followed in experimental populations bred from very few adults. The average frequency of infected flies decreased. These results suggest that overwinterning might be one of the factors responsible for the discrepancy between wild and laboratory populations; in France, previous experiments have shown that about 20% of the individuals in natural populations are infected by the sigma virus, while in laboratory populations set up from samples collected in the wild, virus is detectable in almost the whole population. The effect of winter on the frequency of infected flies might be twofold: first, it has been shown previously that infected flies seem to be more sensitive to overwintering than uninfected flies; second, the reduction of population size might reduce the ability of the population to make up for the decrease during the summer generations.     

Demographic response of brown treesnakes to extended population suppression

From a management perspective, reptiles are relatively novel invasive taxa. Few methods for reptile control have been developed and very little is known about their effectiveness for reducing reptile populations, particularly when the goal is eradication. Many reptiles, and especially snakes, are cryptic, secretive, and undergo extended periods of inactivity, traits that decrease detection probabilities and create challenges in estimating population size or evaluating management effects. The brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) is a notorious invasive species that continues to cause major ecological and economic harm following their introduction to the island of Guam after World War II. They have been the subject of intensive research on the effectiveness of various techniques to control snakes, including the first ever aerial system for the distribution of toxic acetaminophen baits for reptile control. We provide a cohort-based life table for a cryptic and invasive reptile undergoing extended population control using toxic baits from March 2017–2020. We also evaluated the effects of single (toxic bait) versus multi-tool (toxic bait and live trapping) management efforts on population trajectories, and estimated which population vital rates are most important for influencing population growth or decline in a treated landscape. Treatment of the population with acetaminophen-laced baits resulted in an immediate reduction followed by a gradual population decline that suggested that eradication was the probable outcome given sufficient treatment time but that the period of treatment was decades in magnitude. Inclusion of live trapping reduced the predicted time required to achieve eradication by more than half. Preventing the transition of 1,000-mm snout-vent length (SVL) females to larger sizes was predicted to have the greatest effect on population reduction based on integral projection modeling. Our results suggest that toxic baits are capable of eradicating brown treesnakes in an enclosure, although inclusion of trapping reduced overall treatment time required. Tools that effectively target females >1,000 mm SVL may have the greatest effect on reducing overall treatment timelines.     

Using genome scans of DNA polymorphism to infer adaptive population divergence

Elucidating the genetic basis of adaptive population divergence is a goal of central importance in evolutionary biology. In principle, it should be possible to identify chromosomal regions involved in adaptive divergence by screening genome-wide patterns of DNA polymorphism to detect the locus-specific signature of positive directional selection. In the case of spatially separated populations that inhabit different environments or sympatric populations that exploit different ecological niches, it is possible to identify loci that underlie divergently selected traits by comparing relative levels of differentiation among large numbers of unlinked markers. In this review I first address the question of whether diversifying selection on polygenic traits can be expected to produce predictable patterns of allelic variation at the underlying quantitative trait loci (QTL), and whether the locus-specific effects of selection can be reliably detected against the genome-wide backdrop of stochastic variability. I then review different approaches that have been developed to identify loci involved in adaptive population divergence and I discuss the relative merits of model-based approaches that rely on assumptions about population structure vs. model-free approaches that are based on empirical distributions of summary statistics. Finally, I consider the evolutionary and functional insights that might be gained by conducting genome scans for loci involved in adaptive population divergence.     

High genetic diversity in the remnant island population of hihi and the genetic consequences of re-introduction

The maintenance of genetic diversity is thought to be fundamental for the conservation of threatened species. It is therefore important to understand how genetic diversity is affected by the re-introduction of threatened species. We use establishment history and genetic data from the remnant and re-introduced populations of a New Zealand endemic bird, the hihi Notiomystis cincta, to understand genetic diversity loss and quantify the genetic effects of re-introduction. Our data do not support any recent bottleneck events in the remnant population. Furthermore, all genetic diversity measures indicate the remnant hihi population has retained high levels of genetic diversity relative to other New Zealand avifauna with similar histories of decline. Genetic diversity (N(A) , alleles per locus, allelic richness, F(IS) and H(S) ) did not significantly decrease in new hihi populations founded through re-introduction when compared to their source populations, except in the Kapiti Island population (allelic richness and H(S) ) which had very slow post-re-introduction population growth. The N(e) /N(c) ratio in the remnant population was high, but decreased in first-level re-introductions, which together with significant genetic differentiation between populations (F(ST) & Fisher's exact tests) suggest that extant populations are diverging as a result of founder effects and drift. Importantly, simulations of future allele loss predict that the number of alleles lost will be higher in populations with a slow population growth, fewer founding individuals and with nonrandom mating. Interestingly, this species has very high levels of extra-pair paternity which may reduce reproductive variance by allowing social and floater males to reproduce a life history trait that together with a large remnant population size may help maintain higher levels of genetic diversity than expected.     

Studies on an overwintering population of the mushroom phorid Megaselia halterata (Diptera: Phoridae) parasitized by Howardula husseyi (Nematoda: Allantonematidae)

An overwintering population of the mushroom phorid fly Megaselia halterata parasitized by Howardula husseyi was studied in an attempt to explain the winter decline in incidence of parasitism that has been observed in flies from mushroom farms. Fly larvae from eggs hatching in November developed into pupae in December and flies emerged in May. No selective mortality of parasitized specimens of larvae, pupae, or flies was observed. Dead parasites were found in only 10% of parasitized flies. The incidence of parasitism in the emerging flies (50%) was five times that of their parental generation and although parasitism significantly delayed fly emergence the delay was only 2–3 days. There was no evidence of winter decline in parasitism; instead there was strong evidence that parasitism enhanced phorid survival through the winter.     

The impact of a pathogenic bacterium on a social carnivore population

1. The long-term ecological impact of pathogens on group-living, large mammal populations is largely unknown. We evaluated the impact of a pathogenic bacterium, Streptococcus equi ruminatorum, and other key ecological factors on the dynamics of the spotted hyena Crocuta crocuta population in the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania. 2. We compared key demographic parameters during two years when external signs of bacterial infection were prevalent ('outbreak') and periods of five years before and after the outbreak when such signs were absent or rare. We also tested for density dependence and calculated the basic reproductive rate R(0) of the bacterium. 3. During the five pre-outbreak years, the mean annual hyena mortality rate was 0.088, and annual population growth was relatively high (13.6%). During the outbreak, mortality increased by 78% to a rate of 0.156, resulting in an annual population decline of 4.3%. After the outbreak, population size increased moderately (5.1%) during the first three post-outbreak years before resuming a growth similar to pre-outbreak levels (13.9%). We found no evidence that these demographic changes were driven by density dependence or other ecological factors. 4. Most hyenas showed signs of infection when prey abundance in their territory was low. During the outbreak, mortality increased among adult males and yearlings, but not among adult females - the socially dominant group members. These results suggest that infection and mortality were modulated by factors linked to low social status and poor nutrition. During the outbreak, we estimated R(0) for the bacterium to be 2.7, indicating relatively fast transmission. 5. Our results suggest that the short-term 'top-down' impact of S. equi ruminatorum during the outbreak was driven by 'bottom-up' effects on nutritionally disadvantaged age-sex classes, whereas the longer-term post-outbreak reduction in population growth was caused by poor survival of juveniles during the outbreak and subsequent poor recruitment of breeding females. These results suggest synergistic effects of 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' processes on host population dynamics.