气候变化对野生生物类自然保护区的影响及其风险

自然保护区是禁止开发区域、生态保护红线、自然保护地等生态功能重要地区的核心组成部分,在保护生物多样性、保障国家生态安全中居于重要地位。在生态文明体系加快构建、人类活动不利影响逐渐得到遏制的背景下,气候变化及其影响将成为自然保护区建设和管理面临的主要挑战。鉴于此,分析和总结了气候变化对野生生物的影响,剖析了气候变化对野生生物类自然保护区的风险,以期为协同推进自然保护区管理与应对气候变化工作、建立完善国土空间规划体系和自然保护地体系的自然保护区管理制度等提供科学依据。结果表明,气候变化对野生动植物物种分布、生物物候、种间关系的影响更加凸显,加剧了物种灭绝风险;气候变化影响特别是气候变化引起的物种适应性迁移,将对以相对固定的空间布局、保护边界、功能分区为主要特征的自然保护区建设和管理模式提出新的挑战,使得野生生物类自然保护区保护对象、保护功能等面临风险,形成自然保护区气候变化风险;而且当前自然保护区优化调整仍然滞后于气候变化影响,将进一步加剧自然保护区气候变化风险。     

自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化的管理有效性评估: 以广西12个典型自然保护区为例

建立自然保护区是生物多样性保护的根本措施, 而且自然保护区对减缓和适应气候变化具有重要的作用。生物多样性保护的压力在气候变化的胁迫下不断加剧, 因此, 有效的自然保护区管理必须考虑气候变化的影响。发展应对气候变化威胁的适应性管理技术以提高自然保护区管理有效性是自然保护区管理的迫切需求。但目前全球范围内还没有针对减缓和适应气候变化的自然保护区管理有效性评估工具。近半个世纪来广西气温持续升高且极端气候事件频次增加, 对广西各类生物生境产生了重要的影响。本文基于世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)的自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化管理框架和管理有效性评估框架, 在管理有效性跟踪工具(mangement effectiveness tracking tool, METT)基础上提出了自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化管理有效性评估工具(management effectiveness assessment tool of mitigation and adaptation on climate change, MEATMACC), 并使用该工具和METT对广西12个典型自然保护区进行了调查分析。结果表明: 国家级自然保护区的METT得分、MEATMACC得分分别比非国家级自然保护区高28.98%和43.91%; 国家级与非国家级自然保护区的METT得分无显著差异, 但MEATMACC得分差异极显著; 两个管理有效性评估工具得分率呈线性相关但差异不显著; 两个评估工具中背景、规划与影响3个要素得分率存在极显著差异。研究结果表明, 对于自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化的政策和技术支持仍需加强。     

Woody vegetation composition and diversity in woodlands inside and outside a Forest Reserve in Jos,Nigeria

Protected areas such as forest reserves are often assumed to be best ways to conserve biodiversity and maintain intact ecosystems. We examined woody plant composition and diversity in the gallery forest and savannah woodland habitats of Amurum Forest Reserve and areas immediately surrounding it in Jos, Nigeria. A total of 100 10 × 10 m sample plots were established inside and outside the reserve. All woody plants ≥1 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) were identified and measured. A total of 7,564 individual plants categorized as 134 species from 44 families were recorded. Overall species diversity was significantly higher in the Forest Reserve than outside the reserve, although more species were encountered outside the reserve. Our findings suggest that, protected areas and the areas surrounding them are important for the conservation of biodiversity as the areas outside protected areas also contain species of conservation value. The continuous degrading areas outside protected areas isolates them and poses a serious threat to the long‐term viability of wildlife populations, so it is important that biodiversity in protected areas and their surrounding areas be conserved.     

In the Right Place at the Right Time: Habitat Representation in Protected Areas of South American Nothofagus-Dominated Plants after a Dispersal Constrained Climate Change Scenario

In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions.     

30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.     

Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve‐selection methods

Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve‐selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long‐term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve‐selection methods to secure species in a climate‐change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6–11% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50‐year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6% being 1–3% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2–5% to the choice of reserve‐selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.     

基于DNA条形码评估西双版纳国家级自然保护区对樟科植物进化历史的保护

为评估西双版纳国家级自然保护区对樟科这一重要植物类群进化潜力的保护情况, 揭示将物种进化历史纳入生物多样性保护评估的重要性, 本研究通过对西双版纳地区长期的野外调查并查阅标本记录与文献资料, 整理出该地区樟科13属121种物种的具体分布信息, 以植物条形码ITS序列作为分子标记构建了反映整个西双版纳地区樟科植物系统发育关系的系统发育树。我们以此为基础, 从物种层面分析了各物种的进化特异性(evolutionary distinctiveness, ED), 从区域层面分析了自然保护区内、外以及32个行政乡镇的系统发育多样性(phylogenetic diversity, PD), 并结合物种丰富度(species richness, SR)与物种濒危等级, 综合探讨了西双版纳国家级自然保护区对樟科植物进化历史的保护情况。研究发现, 西双版纳国家级自然保护区仅拥有整个西双版纳地区54.5%的樟科物种数, 却保护了该地区樟科植物约88.8%的进化历史, 没有被列入保护范围但却拥有高系统发育多样性的区域有打洛镇、易武乡等。就物种而言, 进化特异性相对较高的19个物种中, 有5种(26.3%)在自然保护区内没有分布; 濒危等级高的54个物种中, 有20种(37.0%)在自然保护区没有分布, 同时拥有高进化特异性和濒危等级的物种仅有1种不在保护区内分布。结果表明, 虽然西双版纳国家级自然保护区对樟科这一植物类群的系统发育多样性以及高保护价值物种的保护较好, 但仍有部分重要樟科植物的进化历史没有涵盖在现有自然保护区范围内; 按照传统方法设定的自然保护区虽能在一定程度上保护樟科物种的进化历史, 但仍然存在与标准化系统发育多样性保护策略相矛盾的地方。因此, 今后在建立自然保护区时, 应将系统发育多样性考虑在内, 以保护生物多样性应对环境变化的潜力。     

A Century of Change in Kenya's Mammal Communities: Increased Richness and Decreased Uniqueness in Six Protected Areas

The potential for large-scale biodiversity losses as a result of climate change and human impact presents major challenges for ecology and conservation science. Governments around the world have established national parks and wildlife reserves to help protect biodiversity, but there are few studies on the long-term consequences of this strategy. We use Kenya as a case study to investigate species richness and other attributes of mammal communities in 6 protected areas over the past century. Museum records from African expeditions that comprehensively sampled mammals from these same areas in the early 1900''s provide a baseline for evaluating changes in species richness and community structure over time. We compare species lists assembled from archived specimens (1896–1950) to those of corresponding modern protected areas (1950–2013). Species richness in Kenya was stable or increased at 5 out of 6 sites from historical to modern times. Beta-diversity, in contrast, decreased across all sites. Potential biases such as variable historical vs. modern collection effort and detection of small-bodied, rare, and low-visibility species do not account for the observed results. We attribute the pattern of decreased beta diversity primarily to increased site occupancy by common species across all body size classes. Despite a decrease in land area available to wildlife, our data do not show the extinctions predicted by species-area relationships. Moreover, the results indicate that species-area curves based solely on protected areas could underestimate diversity because they do not account for mammal species whose ranges extend beyond protected area boundaries. We conclude that the 6 protected areas have been effective in preserving species richness in spite of continuing conversion of wild grasslands to cropland, but the overall decrease in beta diversity indicates a decline in the uniqueness of mammal communities that historically characterized Kenya''s varied landscape.     

Are protected areas maintaining bird diversity?

Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for sustaining biodiversity is crucial to achieving conservation outcomes. While studies of effectiveness have improved our understanding of protected‐area design and management, few investigations (< 5%) have quantified the ecological performance of reserves for conserving species. Here, we present an empirical evaluation of protected‐area effectiveness using long‐term measures of a vulnerable assemblage of species. We compare forest and woodland bird diversity in the Australian Capital Territory over 11 yr on protected and unprotected areas located in temperate eucalypt woodland and matched by key habitat attributes. We examine separately the response of birds to protected areas established prior to 1995 and after 1995 when fundamental changes were made to regional conservation policy. Bird diversity was measured in richness, occurrence of vulnerable species, individual species trajectories and functional trait groups. We found that protected areas were effective in maintaining woody vegetation cover in the study region, but were less effective in the protection of the target bird species assemblage. Protected areas were less species rich than unprotected areas, with significant declines in richness across sites protected prior to 1995. Small, specialised and vulnerable species showed stronger associations with unprotected areas than protected areas. Our findings indicate that recently established reserves (post‐1995) are performing similarly to unprotected woodland areas in terms of maintaining woodland bird diversity, and that both of these areas are more effective in the conservation of woodland bird populations than reserves established prior to 1995. We demonstrate that the conservation value of protected areas is strongly influenced by the physical characteristics, as well as the landscape context, of a given reserve and can diminish with changes in surrounding land use over time. Both protected areas and off‐reserve conservation schemes have important roles to play in securing species populations.     

Reserve scenarios for the Cape Peninsula: high-, middle- and low-road options for conserving the remaining biodiversity

The Cape Peninsula, a landscape of profound scenic beauty, is also botanically exceptionally species-rich and has high concentrations of both endemic and threatened plant species. Alien invasive trees, urban expansion and growing tourism are impacting increasingly on the landscape and biota. Three reserve scenarios were modelled, the primary objective being to maximize the conservation of biodiversity in a manner which takes both cost and efficiency into account. A comprehensive plant species database, an endemic animali species database, a vegetation type database, land-tenure and land-use data were used in this process. The resolution of all databases was by 1 km cells. The first scenario investigated the effectiveness of the existing reserve system in conserving the Peninsula's biodiversity. The second assessed the benefit of adding all publicly owned and to the existing reserves. In scenario three, a reserve-selection algorithm was applied to conserve those plant species outside existing reserves at least once. Where endemic animal species, and areas with high concentrations of threatened and endemic plant species were not adequately conserved, extra cells were added for their inclusion. Finally, one cell was added to cater for one inadequately conserved vegetation type. Fifty-one cells were needed to satisfy the requirements stipulated for scenario three. Analyses showed that 22% of plant species have all their records within existing reserves. Adding all public land improves the status to 43% with 97% having >50% of their records included in reserves. In scenario three, these figures are 32 and 87% respectively. In terms of animal species, four species are unconserved in scenario one, two in scenario two, and all species are conserved in scenario three. We conclude that scenarios two (including all public areas) and three (iterative selection to conserve each species once) provide practicable options for conserving the Peninsula's remaining biodiversity.     

Climate change affects Galliformes taxonomic,phylogenetic and functional diversity indexes,shifting conservation priority areas in China

Aim

Comprehensive biodiversity protection necessitates the consideration of multiple indexes of diversity, and how the distribution patterns of priority areas may shift under climate change. Galliformes is a globally endangered avian order vulnerable to climate change that provide an important indicator for wildlife conservation effectiveness. Here, we identified priority areas for conserving Galliformes taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in China and their spatial dynamics subject to climate change, and examined how well existing protected areas align with current and future priority areas.

Location

China.

Methods

We applied species distribution modelling and Zonation algorithms to identify conservation priority area dynamics for 47 galliform species across three biodiversity indexes subject to three future climate change scenarios to 2050s and 2070s. We overlaid these identified priority areas onto existing national nature reserves and national parks to assess and project their effectiveness.

Results

Current priority areas proved spatially incongruent between indexes, with an optimal area overlap comprising just 10.3% of China's land area, lying largely outside of existing protected areas. Furthermore, over 80% of modelled optimal priority areas currently lacked formal conservation status. Future priority areas will shift substantially under climate change, to an extent dependent on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Nevertheless, we identified five large regions where optimal Galliformes diversity indexes should remain stable under all scenarios, thus providing potential climatic refugia, if protected from human encroachment.

Main Conclusions

The current deficits we identified for Galliformes protection in China resonate with a broader need for hierarchical conservation strategic planning across regions and ecosystems to ensure long-term biodiversity protection, accommodating for climate change.     

Amazonian biodiversity and protected areas: do they meet?

Protected areas are crucial for Amazonian nature conservation. Many Amazonian reserves have been selected systematically to achieve biodiversity representativeness. We review the role natural-scientific understanding has played in reserve selection, and evaluate the theoretical potential of the existing reserves to cover a complete sample of the species diversity of the Amazonian rainforest biome. In total, 108 reserves (604,832 km²) are treated as strictly protected and Amazonian; 87 of these can be seen as systematically selected to sample species diversity (75.3% of total area). Because direct knowledge on all species distributions is unavailable, surrogates have been used to select reserves: direct information on some species distributions (15 reserves, 14.8% of total area); species distribution patterns predicted on the basis of conceptual models, mainly the Pleistocene refuge hypothesis, (5/10.3%); environmental units (46/27.3%); or a combination of distribution patterns and environmental units (21/22.9%). None of these surrogates are reliable: direct information on species distributions is inadequate; the Pleistocene refuge hypothesis is highly controversial; and environmental classifications do not capture all relevant ecological variation, and their relevance for species distribution patterns is undocumented. Hence, Amazonian reserves cannot be safely assumed to capture all Amazonian species. To improve the situation, transparency and an active dialogue with the scientific community should be integral to conservation planning. We suggest that the best currently available approach for sampling Amazonian species diversity in reserve selection is to simultaneously inventory indicator plant species and climatic and geological conditions, and to combine field studies with remote sensing.     

自然保护地保护成效评估: 进展与展望

自然保护地(protected areas)保护成效是指自然保护地对主要保护对象的保护效果, 及其在维持生物多样性和保障生态系统服务功能等方面的综合成效。近年来自然保护地保护成效评估逐渐成为国内外的研究热点之一。 本文分别从不同空间尺度、评估对象、评估方法以及评估指标等方面综述了相关的研究进展。总体来看, 近年来的研究已基本覆盖了全球、区域、国家和单个自然保护地等不同尺度, 针对森林、湿地、草地和荒漠等代表性生态系统以及野生动植物等主要保护对象进行了评估, 发展了“matching”技术等更为有效的分析方法, 探索了系统的自然保护地保护成效评估指标体系, 并应用一些指标进行了保护成效的案例研究。自然保护区(nature reserve)是我国自然保护地的主体, 近年来我国自然保护区相关管理部门也相继开展了保护成效评估工作, 建议未来进一步加强自然保护区网络尺度和各类型自然保护区的保护成效评估研究, 将自然保护区保护成效评估与管理评估相结合, 研究自然保护区保护成效面临的新问题和潜在影响, 为提升我国自然保护区管理质量提供科学依据。     

Evidence that marine reserves enhance resilience to climatic impacts

Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection.     

Signals of Climate Change in Butterfly Communities in a Mediterranean Protected Area

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species'' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species'' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be devised.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

我国东北三省自然保护区物种保护价值评估

自然保护区作为保护生物多样性最主要的手段之一,得到了世界各国的重视。如何科学客观地评价自然保护区的保护价值,并依据保护价值对其进行分类管理是当前我国自然保护区建设与管理的重要课题之一。以我国东北地区40个国家级自然保护区为研究对象,分别对其物种多样性保护价值和遗传种质资源保护价值进行了评估。通过选取物种的濒危性、特有性和保护等级等指标来计算野生动植物的多样性保护价值;选取分类独特性、近缘程度和濒危性等指标来计算遗传种质资源保护价值,进而计算出各自然保护区的综合物种保护价值。研究结果显示:该评价方法能够很好的反映自然保护区生物多样性及其各个层次和类群的保护价值,能够较准确地识别其物种保护优先性。不同自然保护区其保护价值存在一定差异;同一自然保护区中野生动物与植物之间的物种多样性保护价值没有显著差异,但其野生动物与植物之间的遗传种质资源保护价值存在一定差异性;绝大多数自然保护区其植物遗传种质资源保护价值大于动物遗传种质资源保护价值;虽同为国家级自然保护区,其综合物种多样性保护价值差异很大。吉林长白山国家级自然保护区、吉林珲春东北虎国家级自然保护区、吉林松花江三湖国家级自然保护区的综合保护价值显著高于同类型的其他自然保护区,而辽宁章古台国家级自然保护区、黑龙江双河国家级自然保护区和黑龙江三环泡国家级自然保护区的综合物种保护价值较低,不同类型自然保护区之间其综合保护价值则没有明显差异。该评价方法能较好地进行自然保护区物种保护价值评价,并用于进行自然保护区之间的比较,并不会因自然保护区所处生境、所分布物种不同而产生评价结果上的偏差;该方法在对自然保护区遗传种质资源部分的计算方面需要进一步完善;总体上来说该评价方法不会因自然保护区类型的不同产生差异;今后在对东北地区自然保护区管理分类研究中可将此评价结果作为参考,并作为评价该地区自然保护区能否晋升为国家级自然保护区的辅助工具。这在一定程度上减少了人为主观性,具有较大可行性。     

The impact investigation and adaptation strategy analysis of climate change on nature reserve in China

Nature reserve has been served as the important pathway for biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. Global climate change is an indisputable fact and impacted the biodiversity and nature reserve. How nature reserves adapt to climate change has drawn more and more concerns. This research conducted questionnaires of 68 national nature reserves from 24 provincial regions, and the questionnaires showed that all surveyed nature reserves experienced climate change, and 68.57%, 61.43% and 68.57% of nature reserves, respectively, considered warming temperature, precipitation change, and occurrence of extreme climate events as new threats to them. These new factors directly threat the distribution range and survival of endangered species, change of ecosystem function, enhance of pest and disease damages, and directed damage the infrastructures. However, most of the surveyed nature reserves did not consider the systematic monitoring the facts of climate change, and lack actions and strategies of initiative adaptation to climate change. At last, we proposed the strategies for nature reserves to adapt to climate change, including enhancing the monitoring on the impact of climate change, making scientific planning and designing for development of nature reserves, decreasing the pressure through sustainable development, and enhancing the scientific research and the investment to improve the ability of nature reserves to adapt to climate change.     

Preserving biodiversity under current and future climates: a case study

Aim The conservation of biological and genetic diversity is a major goal of reserve systems at local, regional, and national levels. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources suggests a 12% threshold (area basis) for adequate protection of biological and genetic diversity of a plant community. However, thresholds based on area may protect only a small portion of the total diversity if the locations are chosen without regard to the variation within the community. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to apply a coarse‐filter approach for identifying gaps in the current reserve system of the Psuedotsuga menziesii (Douglas‐fir) forest type group based on current climatic conditions and a global climate change scenario. Location Western United States. Method We used an ecological envelope approach that was based on seven bioclimatic factors, two topographic factors, and two edaphic factors. Multivariate factor analysis was then used to reduce the envelope to two dimensions. The relative density of habitat and protected areas were identified in each part of the envelope based on the current climate and potential future climate. We used this information to identify gaps in the reserve system. Results Although the protected areas occurred in all parts of the envelope, most existed in colder and drier areas. This was true for both the current climate and potential future climate. Main conclusion To protect more of the ecological envelope, future conservation efforts would be most effective in western Oregon, north‐western Washington, and north‐western California.     

基于ZONATION的岷山山系多物种保护规划

空间布局不尽合理是我国的自然保护区发展面临的问题之一,优化现有的自然保护区体系是在资源有限的情况下实现自然保护区的保护效益最大化的最佳途径。以岷山地区为主要研究区域,以25种珍稀濒危物种为主要研究对象,通过MAXENT与ZONATION模型模拟,鉴别出岷山地区珍稀濒危物种保护优先区,并提出了自然保护区空间选址的优化方案。研究结果表明,(1)在物种出现点记录较少的情况下,MAXENT模型依然能够比较准确地预测出物种的分布状况;(2)目前建立的保护区对25个物种的平均保护比例为51.8%;(3)通过ZONATION鉴定的优先区总面积为19958.7 km~2,岷山地区现有的29个自然保护区只保护了目标优先区的47.1%,九寨沟中部与南部,平武北部,平武与北川的交界处,北川西北部等地都存在保护空缺。建议在保护空缺的6个地方新建或扩建自然保护区,并在规划时考虑这些区域内部的优先次序。新提出的保护体系能将物种栖息地的保护比例提高至77.9%。研究结果对于岷山及全国其他生物多样性保护关键地区保护体系的规划都具有重要的借鉴意义。