Global patterns of aegyptism without arbovirus

The world’s most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures will likely expand its territory thus increasing risk of human exposure to arboviruses in places like Europe, Northern Australia and North America, among many others. Most studies of Ae. aegypti biology and virus transmission focus on locations with high endemicity or severe outbreaks of human amplified urban arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, but rarely on areas at the margins of endemicity. The objective in this study is to explore previously published global patterns in the environmental suitability for Ae. aegypti and dengue virus to reveal deviations in the probability of the vector and human disease occurring. We developed a map showing one end of the gradient being higher suitability of Ae. aegypti with low suitability of dengue and the other end of the spectrum being equal and higher environmental suitability for both Ae. aegypti and dengue. The regions of the world with Ae. aegypti environmental suitability and no endemic dengue transmission exhibits a phenomenon we term ‘aegyptism without arbovirus’. We then tested what environmental and socioeconomic variables influence this deviation map revealing a significant association with human population density, suggesting that locations with lower human population density were more likely to have a higher probability of aegyptism without arbovirus. Characterizing regions of the world with established populations of Ae. aegypti but little to no autochthonous transmission of human-amplified arboviruses is an important step in understanding and achieving aegyptism without arbovirus.     

Zika Virus,a New Threat for Europe?

BackgroundSince its emergence in 2007 in Micronesia and Polynesia, the arthropod-borne flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread in the Americas and the Caribbean, following first detection in Brazil in May 2015. The risk of ZIKV emergence in Europe increases as imported cases are repeatedly reported. Together with chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and dengue virus (DENV), ZIKV is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Any countries where these mosquitoes are present could be potential sites for future ZIKV outbreak. We assessed the vector competence of European Aedes mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) for the currently circulating Asian genotype of ZIKV.Conclusions/SignificanceIn combination with the restricted distribution of European Ae. albopictus, our results on vector competence corroborate the low risk for ZIKV to expand into most parts of Europe with the possible exception of the warmest regions bordering the Mediterranean coastline.     

A conceptual model for optimizing vaccine coverage to reduce vector-borne infections in the presence of antibody-dependent enhancement

Background

Many vector-borne diseases co-circulate, as the viruses from the same family are also transmitted by the same vector species. For example, Zika and dengue viruses belong to the same Flavivirus family and are primarily transmitted by a common mosquito species Aedes aegypti. Zika outbreaks have also commonly occurred in dengue-endemic areas, and co-circulation and co-infection of both viruses have been reported. As recent immunological cross-reactivity studies have confirmed that convalescent plasma following dengue infection can enhance Zika infection, and as global efforts of developing dengue and Zika vaccines are intensified, it is important to examine whether and how vaccination against one disease in a large population may affect infection dynamics of another disease due to antibody-dependent enhancement.

Methods

Through a conceptual co-infection dynamics model parametrized by reported dengue and Zika epidemic and immunological cross-reactivity characteristics, we evaluate impact of a hypothetical dengue vaccination program on Zika infection dynamics in a single season when only one particular dengue serotype is involved.

Results

We show that an appropriately designed and optimized dengue vaccination program can not only help control the dengue spread but also, counter-intuitively, reduce Zika infections. We identify optimal dengue vaccination coverages for controlling dengue and simultaneously reducing Zika infections, as well as the critical coverages exceeding which dengue vaccination will increase Zika infections.

Conclusion

This study based on a conceptual model shows the promise of an integrative vector-borne disease control strategy involving optimal vaccination programs, in regions where different viruses or different serotypes of the same virus co-circulate, and convalescent plasma following infection from one virus (serotype) can enhance infection against another virus (serotype). The conceptual model provides a first step towards well-designed regional and global vector-borne disease immunization programs.

     

Modeling intra-mosquito dynamics of Zika virus and its dose-dependence confirms the low epidemic potential of Aedes albopictus

Originating from African forests, Zika virus (ZIKV) has now emerged worldwide in urbanized areas, mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Although Aedes albopictus can transmit ZIKV experimentally and was suspected to be a ZIKV vector in Central Africa, the potential of this species to sustain virus transmission was yet to be uncovered until the end of 2019, when several autochthonous transmissions of the virus vectored by Ae. albopictus occurred in France. Aside from these few locally acquired ZIKV infections, most territories colonized by Ae. albopictus have been spared so far. The risk level of ZIKV emergence in these areas remains however an open question. To assess Ae. albopictus’ vector potential for ZIKV and identify key virus outbreak predictors, we built a complete framework using the complementary combination of (i) dose-dependent experimental Ae. albopictus exposure to ZIKV followed by time-dependent assessment of infection and systemic infection rates, (ii) modeling of intra-human ZIKV viremia dynamics, and (iii) in silico epidemiological simulations using an Agent-Based Model. The highest risk of transmission occurred during the pre-symptomatic stage of the disease, at the peak of viremia. At this dose, mosquito infection probability was estimated to be 20%, and 21 days were required to reach the median systemic infection rates. Mosquito population origin, either temperate or tropical, had no impact on infection rates or intra-host virus dynamic. Despite these unfavorable characteristics for transmission, Ae. albopictus was still able to trigger and yield large outbreaks in a simulated environment in the presence of sufficiently high mosquito biting rates. Our results reveal a low but existing epidemic potential of Ae. albopictus for ZIKV, that might explain the absence of large scale ZIKV epidemics so far in territories occupied only by Ae. albopictus. They nevertheless support active surveillance and eradication programs in these territories to maintain the risk of emergence to a low level.     

Lipases secreted by a gut bacterium inhibit arbovirus transmission in mosquitoes

Arboviruses are etiological agents of various severe human diseases that place a tremendous burden on global public health and the economy; compounding this issue is the fact that effective prophylactics and therapeutics are lacking for most arboviruses. Herein, we identified 2 bacterial lipases secreted by a Chromobacterium bacterium isolated from Aedes aegypti midgut, Chromobacterium antiviral effector-1 (CbAE-1) and CbAE-2, with broad-spectrum virucidal activity against mosquito-borne viruses, such as dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and Sindbis virus (SINV). The CbAEs potently blocked viral infection in the extracellular milieu through their lipase activity. Mechanistic studies showed that this lipase activity directly disrupted the viral envelope structure, thus inactivating infectivity. A mutation in the lipase motif of CbAE-1 fully abrogated the virucidal ability. Furthermore, CbAEs also exert lipase-dependent entomopathogenic activity in mosquitoes. The anti-arboviral and entomopathogenic properties of CbAEs render them potential candidates for the development of novel transmission control strategies against vector-borne diseases.     

Dengue Outbreak in Mombasa City,Kenya, 2013–2014: Entomologic Investigations

Dengue outbreaks were first reported in East Africa in the late 1970s to early 1980s including the 1982 outbreak on the Kenyan coast. In 2011, dengue outbreaks occurred in Mandera in northern Kenya and subsequently in Mombasa city along the Kenyan coast in 2013–2014. Following laboratory confirmation of dengue fever cases, an entomologic investigation was conducted to establish the mosquito species, and densities, causing the outbreak. Affected parts of the city were identified with the help of public health officials. Adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were collected using various tools, processed and screened for dengue virus (DENV) by cell culture and RT-PCR. All containers in every accessible house and compound within affected suburbs were inspected for immatures. A total of 2,065 Ae. aegypti adults were collected and 192 houses and 1,676 containers inspected. An overall house index of 22%, container index, 31.0% (indoor = 19; outdoor = 43) and Breteau index, 270.1, were observed, suggesting that the risk of dengue transmission was high. Overall, jerry cans were the most productive containers (18%), followed by drums (17%), buckets (16%), tires (14%) and tanks (10%). However, each site had specific most-productive container-types such as tanks (17%) in Kizingo; Drums in Nyali (30%) and Changamwe (33%), plastic basins (35%) in Nyali-B and plastic buckets (81%) in Ganjoni. We recommend that for effective control of the dengue vector in Mombasa city, all container types would be targeted. Measures would include proper covering of water storage containers and eliminating discarded containers outdoors through a public participatory environmental clean-up exercise. Providing reliable piped water to all households would minimize the need for water storage and reduce aquatic habitats. Isolation of DENV from male Ae. aegypti mosquitoes is a first observation in Kenya and provides further evidence that transovarial transmission may have a role in DENV circulation and/or maintenance in the environment.     

Microbes increase thermal sensitivity in the mosquito Aedes aegypti,with the potential to change disease distributions

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of many disease-causing viruses, including dengue (DENV), Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. As consequences of climate change, we expect an increase in both global mean temperatures and extreme climatic events. When temperatures fluctuate, mosquito vectors will be increasingly exposed to temperatures beyond their upper thermal limits. Here, we examine how DENV infection alters Ae. aegypti thermotolerance by using a high-throughput physiological ‘knockdown’ assay modeled on studies in Drosophila. Such laboratory measures of thermal tolerance have previously been shown to accurately predict an insect’s distribution in the field. We show that DENV infection increases thermal sensitivity, an effect that may ultimately limit the geographic range of the virus. We also show that the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia pipientis, which is currently being released globally as a biological control agent, has a similar impact on thermal sensitivity in Ae. aegypti. Surprisingly, in the coinfected state, Wolbachia did not provide protection against DENV-associated effects on thermal tolerance, nor were the effects of the two infections additive. The latter suggests that the microbes may act by similar means, potentially through activation of shared immune pathways or energetic tradeoffs. Models predicting future ranges of both virus transmission and Wolbachia’s efficacy following field release may wish to consider the effects these microbes have on host survival.     

Assessing the suitability for Aedes albopictus and dengue transmission risk in China with a delay differential equation model

Dengue is considered non-endemic to mainland China. However, travellers frequently import the virus from overseas and local mosquito species can then spread the disease in the population. As a consequence, mainland China still experiences large dengue outbreaks. Temperature plays a key role in these outbreaks: it affects the development and survival of the vector and the replication rate of the virus. To better understand its implication in the transmission risk of dengue, we developed a delay differential equation model that explicitly simulates temperature-dependent development periods and tested it with collected field data for the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. The model predicts mosquito occurrence locations with a high accuracy (Cohen’s κ of 0.78) and realistically replicates mosquito population dynamics. Analysing the infection dynamics during the 2014 dengue outbreak that occurred in Guangzhou showed that the outbreak could have lasted for another four weeks if mosquito control interventions had not been undertaken. Finally, we analyse the dengue transmission risk in mainland China. We find that southern China, including Guangzhou, can have more than seven months of dengue transmission per year while even Beijing, in the temperate north, can have dengue transmission during hot summer months. The results demonstrate the importance of using detailed vector and infection ecology, especially when vector-borne disease transmission risk is modelled over a broad range of climatic zones.     

Assessment of fitness and vector competence of a New Caledonia wMel Aedes aegypti strain before field-release

BackgroundBiological control programs involving Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti are currently deployed in different epidemiological settings. New Caledonia (NC) is an ideal location for the implementation and evaluation of such a strategy as the only proven vector for dengue virus (DENV) is Ae. aegypti and dengue outbreaks frequency and severity are increasing. We report the generation of a NC Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti strain and the results of experiments to assess the vector competence and fitness of this strain for future implementation as a disease control strategy in Noumea, NC.Methods/principal findingsThe NC Wolbachia strain (NC-wMel) was obtained by backcrossing Australian AUS-wMel females with New Caledonian Wild-Type (NC-WT) males. Blocking of DENV, chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses were evaluated via mosquito oral feeding experiments and intrathoracic DENV challenge. Significant reduction in infection rates were observed for NC-wMel Ae. aegypti compared to WT Ae. aegypti. No transmission was observed for NC-wMel Ae. aegypti. Maternal transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility, fertility, fecundity, wing length, and insecticide resistance were also assessed in laboratory experiments. Ae. aegypti NC-wMel showed complete cytoplasmic incompatibility and a strong maternal transmission. Ae. aegypti NC-wMel fitness seemed to be reduced compared to NC-WT Ae. aegypti and AUS-wMel Ae. aegypti regarding fertility and fecundity. However further experiments are required to assess it accurately.Conclusions/significanceOur results demonstrated that the NC-wMel Ae. aegypti strain is a strong inhibitor of DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV infection and prevents transmission of infectious viral particles in mosquito saliva. Furthermore, our NC-wMel Ae. aegypti strain induces reproductive cytoplasmic incompatibility with minimal apparent fitness costs and high maternal transmission, supporting field-releases in Noumea, NC.     

Vector competence of Aedes aegypti from Havana,Cuba, for dengue virus type 1, chikungunya,and Zika viruses

BackgroundLike many countries from the Americas, Cuba is threatened by Aedes aegypti-associated arboviruses such as dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses. Curiously, when CHIKV was actively circulating in the region in 2013–2014, no autochthonous transmission of this virus was detected in Havana, Cuba, despite the importation of chikungunya cases into this city. To investigate if the transmission ability of local mosquito populations could explain this epidemiological scenario, we evaluated for the first time the vector competence of two Ae. aegypti populations (Pasteur and Párraga) collected from Havana for dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1), CHIKV, and ZIKV.Methodology/Principal findingsMosquito populations were fed separately using blood containing ZIKV, DENV-1, or CHIKV. Infection, dissemination, and transmission rates, were estimated at 3 (exclusively for CHIKV), 7, and 14 days post exposure (dpe) for each Ae. aegypti population-virus combination. Both mosquito populations were susceptible to DENV-1 and ZIKV, with viral infection and dissemination rates ranging from 24–97% and 6–67% respectively. In addition, CHIKV disseminated in both populations and was subsequently transmitted. Transmission rates were low (<30%) regardless of the mosquito population/virus combination and no ZIKV was detected in saliva of females from the Pasteur population at any dpe.Conclusions/SignificanceOur study demonstrated the ability of Ae. aegypti from Cuba to transmit DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV. These results, along with the widespread distribution and high abundance of this species in the urban settings throughout the island, highlight the importance of Ae. aegypti control and arbovirus surveillance to prevent future outbreaks.     

Current knowledge of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens in Zambia: A clarion call to scaling-up “One Health” research in the wake of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases

BackgroundAlthough vector-borne zoonotic diseases are a major public health threat globally, they are usually neglected, especially among resource-constrained countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. This scoping review examined the current knowledge and identified research gaps of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens in Zambia.Methods and findingsMajor scientific databases (Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, CABI, Scientific Information Database (SID)) were searched for articles describing vector-borne (mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and tsetse flies) zoonotic pathogens in Zambia. Several mosquito-borne arboviruses have been reported including Yellow fever, Ntaya, Mayaro, Dengue, Zika, West Nile, Chikungunya, Sindbis, and Rift Valley fever viruses. Flea-borne zoonotic pathogens reported include Yersinia pestis and Rickettsia felis. Trypanosoma sp. was the only tsetse fly-borne pathogen identified. Further, tick-borne zoonotic pathogens reported included Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic fever virus, Rickettsia sp., Anaplasma sp., Ehrlichia sp., Borrelia sp., and Coxiella burnetii.ConclusionsThis study revealed the presence of many vector-borne zoonotic pathogens circulating in vectors and animals in Zambia. Though reports of human clinical cases were limited, several serological studies provided considerable evidence of zoonotic transmission of vector-borne pathogens in humans. However, the disease burden in humans attributable to vector-borne zoonotic infections could not be ascertained from the available reports and this precludes the formulation of national policies that could help in the control and mitigation of the impact of these diseases in Zambia. Therefore, there is an urgent need to scale-up “One Health” research in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases to enable the country to prepare for future epidemics, including pandemics.     

Aggressive organ penetration and high vector transmissibility of epidemic dengue virus-2 Cosmopolitan genotype in a transmission mouse model

Dengue virus (DENV) causes dengue fever and severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes. The incidence of DENV infection has been gradually increasing in recent years due to global urbanization and international travel. Understanding the virulence determinants in host and vector transmissibility of emerging epidemic DENV will be critical to combat potential outbreaks. The DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2), which caused a widespread outbreak in Taiwan in 2015 (TW2015), is of the Cosmopolitan genotype and is phylogenetically related to the virus strain linked to another large outbreak in Indonesia in 2015. We found that the TW2015 virus was highly virulent in type I and type II interferon-deficient mice, with robust replication in spleen, lung, and intestine. The TW2015 virus also had high transmissibility to Aedes mosquitoes and could be effectively spread in a continuous mosquitoes-mouse-mosquitoes-mouse transmission cycle. By making 16681-based mutants carrying different segments of the TW2015 virus, we identified the structural pre-membrane (prM) and envelope (E) genes as key virulence determinants in the host, with involvement in the high transmissibility of the TW2015 virus in mosquitoes. The transmission mouse model will make a useful platform for evaluation of DENV with high epidemic potential and development of new strategies against dengue outbreaks.     

Effectiveness of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments in reducing the incidence of dengue and other Aedes-borne diseases in Niterói,Brazil: A quasi-experimental study

BackgroundThe introduction of the bacterium Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Evidence of a reduction in dengue case incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti has been reported previously from a cluster randomised controlled trial in Indonesia, and quasi-experimental studies in Indonesia and northern Australia.Methodology/Principal findingsFollowing pilot releases in 2015–2016 and a period of intensive community engagement, deployments of adult wMel-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were conducted in Niterói, Brazil during 2017–2019. Deployments were phased across four release zones, with a total area of 83 km² and a residential population of approximately 373,000. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of wMel deployments in reducing dengue, chikungunya and Zika incidence. An untreated control zone was pre-defined, which was comparable to the intervention area in historical dengue trends. The wMel intervention effect was estimated by controlled interrupted time series analysis of monthly dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications to the public health surveillance system before, during and after releases, from release zones and the control zone. Three years after commencement of releases, wMel introgression into local Ae. aegypti populations was heterogeneous throughout Niterói, reaching a high prevalence (>80%) in the earliest release zone, and more moderate levels (prevalence 40–70%) elsewhere. Despite this spatial heterogeneity in entomological outcomes, the wMel intervention was associated with a 69% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 54%, 79%), a 56% reduction in chikungunya incidence (95%CI 16%, 77%) and a 37% reduction in Zika incidence (95%CI 1%, 60%), in the aggregate release area compared with the pre-defined control area. This significant intervention effect on dengue was replicated across all four release zones, and in three of four zones for chikungunya, though not in individual release zones for Zika.Conclusions/SignificanceWe demonstrate that wMel Wolbachia can be successfully introgressed into Ae. aegypti populations in a large and complex urban setting, and that a significant public health benefit from reduced incidence of Aedes-borne disease accrues even where the prevalence of wMel in local mosquito populations is moderate and spatially heterogeneous. These findings are consistent with the results of randomised and non-randomised field trials in Indonesia and northern Australia, and are supportive of the Wolbachia biocontrol method as a multivalent intervention against dengue, chikungunya and Zika.     

Genetic Characterization of Spondweni and Zika Viruses and Susceptibility of Geographically Distinct Strains of Aedes aegypti,Aedes albopictus and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) to Spondweni Virus

BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) has extended its known geographic distribution to the New World and is now responsible for severe clinical complications in a subset of patients. While substantial genetic and vector susceptibility data exist for ZIKV, less is known for the closest related flavivirus, Spondweni virus (SPONV). Both ZIKV and SPONV have been known to circulate in Africa since the mid-1900s, but neither has been genetically characterized by gene and compared in parallel. Furthermore, the susceptibility of peridomestic mosquito species incriminated or suspected in the transmission of ZIKV to SPONV was unknown.Conclusions/SignificanceSPONV and ZIKV nucleotide and amino acid divergence coupled with differences in geographic distribution, ecology and vector species support previous reports that these viruses are separate species. Furthermore, the low degree of SPONV infection or dissemination in Ae. albopictus, Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus following exposure to two geographically and genetically distinct virus strains suggest a low potential for these species to serve as vectors.     

Differential Susceptibilities of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus from the Americas to Zika Virus

BackgroundSince the major outbreak in 2007 in the Yap Island, Zika virus (ZIKV) causing dengue-like syndromes has affected multiple islands of the South Pacific region. In May 2015, the virus was detected in Brazil and then spread through South and Central America. In December 2015, ZIKV was detected in French Guiana and Martinique. The aim of the study was to evaluate the vector competence of the mosquito spp. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus from the Caribbean (Martinique, Guadeloupe), North America (southern United States), South America (Brazil, French Guiana) for the currently circulating Asian genotype of ZIKV isolated from a patient in April 2014 in New Caledonia.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study suggests that although susceptible to infection, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were unexpectedly low competent vectors for ZIKV. This may suggest that other factors such as the large naïve population for ZIKV and the high densities of human-biting mosquitoes contribute to the rapid spread of ZIKV during the current outbreak.     

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue,Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.     

Evidence for serial founder events during the colonization of North America by the yellow fever mosquito,Aedes aegypti

The Aedes aegypti mosquito first invaded the Americas about 500 years ago and today is a widely distributed invasive species and the primary vector for viruses causing dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever. Here, we test the hypothesis that the North American colonization by Ae. aegypti occurred via a series of founder events. We present findings on genetic diversity, structure, and demographic history using data from 70 Ae. aegypti populations in North America that were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and/or ~20,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms, the largest genetic study of the region to date. We find evidence consistent with colonization driven by serial founder effect (SFE), with Florida as the putative source for a series of westward invasions. This scenario was supported by (1) a decrease in the genetic diversity of Ae. aegypti populations moving west, (2) a correlation between pairwise genetic and geographic distances, and (3) demographic analysis based on allele frequencies. A few Ae. aegypti populations on the west coast do not follow the general trend, likely due to a recent and distinct invasion history. We argue that SFE provides a helpful albeit simplified model for the movement of Ae. aegypti across North America, with outlier populations warranting further investigation.     

An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China

As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever remains challenging to predict due to large variations in epidemic size across seasons driven by a number of factors including population susceptibility, mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical factors, and human mobility. An ensemble forecast system for dengue fever is first proposed that addresses the difficulty of predicting outbreaks with drastically different scales. The ensemble forecast system based on a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type of compartmental model coupled with a data assimilation method called the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF) is constructed to generate real-time forecasts of dengue fever spread dynamics. The model was informed by meteorological and mosquito density information to depict the transmission of dengue virus among human and mosquito populations, and generate predictions. To account for the dramatic variations of outbreak size in different seasons, the effective population size parameter that is sequentially updated to adjust the predicted outbreak scale is introduced into the model. Before optimizing the transmission model, we update the effective population size using the most recent observations and historical records so that the predicted outbreak size is dynamically adjusted. In the retrospective forecast of dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China during the 2011–2017 seasons, the proposed forecast model generates accurate projections of peak timing, peak intensity, and total incidence, outperforming a generalized additive model approach. The ensemble forecast system can be operated in real-time and inform control planning to reduce the burden of dengue fever.