Diversification practices reduce organic to conventional yield gap

Agriculture today places great strains on biodiversity, soils, water and the atmosphere, and these strains will be exacerbated if current trends in population growth, meat and energy consumption, and food waste continue. Thus, farming systems that are both highly productive and minimize environmental harms are critically needed. How organic agriculture may contribute to world food production has been subject to vigorous debate over the past decade. Here, we revisit this topic comparing organic and conventional yields with a new meta-dataset three times larger than previously used (115 studies containing more than 1000 observations) and a new hierarchical analytical framework that can better account for the heterogeneity and structure in the data. We find organic yields are only 19.2% (±3.7%) lower than conventional yields, a smaller yield gap than previous estimates. More importantly, we find entirely different effects of crop types and management practices on the yield gap compared with previous studies. For example, we found no significant differences in yields for leguminous versus non-leguminous crops, perennials versus annuals or developed versus developing countries. Instead, we found the novel result that two agricultural diversification practices, multi-cropping and crop rotations, substantially reduce the yield gap (to 9 ± 4% and 8 ± 5%, respectively) when the methods were applied in only organic systems. These promising results, based on robust analysis of a larger meta-dataset, suggest that appropriate investment in agroecological research to improve organic management systems could greatly reduce or eliminate the yield gap for some crops or regions.     

An integrated biogeochemical and economic analysis of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States

This study integrates a biophysical model with a county‐specific economic analysis of breakeven prices of bioenergy crop production to assess the biophysical and economic potential of biofuel production in the Midwestern United States. The bioenergy crops considered in this study include a genotype of Miscanthus, Miscanthus×giganteus, and the Cave‐in‐Rock breed of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). The estimated average peak biomass yield for miscanthus in the Midwestern states ranges between 7 and 48 metric tons dry matter per hectare per year ( t DM ha^?1 yr^?1), while that for switchgrass is between 10 and 16 t DM ha^?1 yr^?1. With the exception of Minnesota and Wisconsin, where miscanthus yields are likely to be low due to cold soil temperatures, the yield of miscanthus is on average more than two times higher than yield of switchgrass. We find that the breakeven price, which includes the cost of producing the crop and the opportunity cost of land, of producing miscanthus ranges from $53 t^?1 DM in Missouri to $153 t^?1 DM in Minnesota in the low‐cost scenario. Corresponding costs for switchgrass are $88 t^?1 DM in Missouri to $144 t^?1 DM in Minnesota. In the high‐cost scenario, the lowest cost for miscanthus is $85 t^?1 DM and for switchgrass is $118 t^?1 DM, both in Missouri. These two scenarios differ in their assumptions about ease of establishing the perennial crops, nutrient requirements and harvesting costs and losses. The differences in the breakeven prices across states and across crops are mainly driven by bioenergy and row crop yields per hectare. Our results suggest that while high yields per unit of land of bioenergy crops are critical for the competitiveness of bioenergy feedstocks, the yields of the row crops they seek to displace are also an important consideration. Even high yielding crops, such as miscanthus, are likely to be economically attractive only in some locations in the Midwest given the high yields of corn and soybean in the region.     

Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne incognita,M. arenaria,and Other Nematodes and Crop Yields in Rotations of Cotton,Peanut, and Wheat Under Minimum Tillage

Wheat, cotton, and peanut were arranged in three cropping sequences to determine the effects of fenamiphos (6.7 kg a.i./ha) and cropping sequence on nematode population densities and crop yields under conservation tillage and irrigation for 6 years. The cropping sequences included a wheat winter cover crop each year and summer crops of cotton every year, peanut every year, or cotton rotated every other year with peanut. The population densities of Meloidogyne spp. and Helicotylenchus dihystera were determined monthly during the experiment. Numbers of M. incognita increased on cotton and decreased on peanut, whereas M. arenaria increased on peanut, and decreased on cotton; both nematode species remained in moderate to high numbers in plots of wheat. Root damage was more severe on cotton than peanut and was not affected by fenamiphos treatment. The H. dihystera population densities were highest in plots with cotton every summer, intermediate in the cotton-peanut rotation, and lowest in plots with peanut every summer. Over all years and cropping sequences, yield increases in fenamiphos treatment over untreated control were 9% for wheat, 8% for cotton, and 0% for peanut. Peanut yields following cotton were generally higher than yields following peanut. These results show that nematode problems may be manageable in cotton and peanut production under conservation tillage and irrigation in the southeastern United States.     

Yield and Economic Performance of Organic and Conventional Cotton-Based Farming Systems – Results from a Field Trial in India

The debate on the relative benefits of conventional and organic farming systems has in recent time gained significant interest. So far, global agricultural development has focused on increased productivity rather than on a holistic natural resource management for food security. Thus, developing more sustainable farming practices on a large scale is of utmost importance. However, information concerning the performance of farming systems under organic and conventional management in tropical and subtropical regions is scarce. This study presents agronomic and economic data from the conversion phase (2007–2010) of a farming systems comparison trial on a Vertisol soil in Madhya Pradesh, central India. A cotton-soybean-wheat crop rotation under biodynamic, organic and conventional (with and without Bt cotton) management was investigated. We observed a significant yield gap between organic and conventional farming systems in the 1^st crop cycle (cycle 1: 2007–2008) for cotton (−29%) and wheat (−27%), whereas in the 2^nd crop cycle (cycle 2: 2009–2010) cotton and wheat yields were similar in all farming systems due to lower yields in the conventional systems. In contrast, organic soybean (a nitrogen fixing leguminous plant) yields were marginally lower than conventional yields (−1% in cycle 1, −11% in cycle 2). Averaged across all crops, conventional farming systems achieved significantly higher gross margins in cycle 1 (+29%), whereas in cycle 2 gross margins in organic farming systems were significantly higher (+25%) due to lower variable production costs but similar yields. Soybean gross margin was significantly higher in the organic system (+11%) across the four harvest years compared to the conventional systems. Our results suggest that organic soybean production is a viable option for smallholder farmers under the prevailing semi-arid conditions in India. Future research needs to elucidate the long-term productivity and profitability, particularly of cotton and wheat, and the ecological impact of the different farming systems.     

Comparing global warming potential,energy use and land use of organic,conventional and integrated winter wheat production

To ensure a sustainable food supply for the growing population, the challenge is to find agricultural systems that can meet production requirements within environmental constraints and demands. This study compares the impacts of winter wheat production on energy use, land use and 100 years Global Warming Potential (GWP₁₀₀) under different arable farming systems and farming practices. Life cycle assessment was used to simulate the impacts of organic, conventional and integrated farming (IF) systems along the production chain from input production up to the farm gate. The IF system models were designed to combine the best practices from organic and conventional systems to reduce negative environmental impacts without significant yield reductions. An integrated system that used food waste digestate as a fertiliser, and utilised pesticides and no‐tillage had the lowest energy use and GWP per functional unit of 1000 kg wheat output. When the impacts of some specific practices for reducing energy use and GWP were compared, the highest energy use reductions were achieved by replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers with anaerobically treated food waste or nitrogen fixing crops, increasing yields through crop breeding and using no‐tillage instead of ploughing. The highest GWP reductions were achieved by using nitrification inhibitors, replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and increasing yields. The major contributors to the uncertainty range of energy use were associated with machinery fuel use and the assumed crop yields. For GWP results, the main source of uncertainty related to the N₂O emissions. In conclusion, farming systems that combine the best practices from organic and conventional systems have potential to reduce negative environmental impacts while maintaining yield levels.     

Where can switchgrass production be more profitable than corn and soybean? An integrated subfield assessment in Iowa,USA

Perennial bioenergy crops are considered an important feedstock for a growing bioeconomy. However, in the USA, production of biofuel from these dedicated, nonfood crops is lagging behind federal mandates and markets have yet to develop. Most studies on the economic potential of perennial biofuel crops have concluded that even high‐yielding bioenergy grasses are unprofitable compared to corn/soybeans, the prevailing crops in the United States Corn Belt. However, they did not account for opportunities precision agriculture presents to integrate perennials into agronomically and economically underperforming parts of corn/soybean fields. Using publicly available subfield data and market projections, we identified an upper bound to the areas in Iowa, United States, where the conversion from corn/soybean cropland to an herbaceous bioenergy crop, switchgrass, could be economically viable under different price, land tenancy, and yield scenarios. Assuming owned land, medium crop prices, and a biomass price of US$ 55 Mg^?1, we showed that 4.3% of corn/soybean cropland could break even when converted to switchgrass yielding up to 10.08 Mg ha^?1. The annualized change in net present value on each converted subfield patch ranged from just above US$ 0 ha^?1 to 692 ha^?1. In the three counties of highest economic opportunity, total annualized producer benefits from converting corn/soybean to switchgrass summed to US$ 2.6 million, 3.4 million, and 7.6 million, respectively. This is the first study to quantify an upper bound to the potential private economic benefits from targeted conversion of unfavorable corn/soybean cropland to switchgrass, leaving arable land already under perennial cover unchanged. Broadly, we conclude that areas with high within‐field yield variation provide highest economic opportunities for switchgrass conversion. Our results are relevant for policy design intended to improve the sustainability of agricultural production. While focused on Iowa, this approach is applicable to other intensively farmed regions globally with similar data availability.     

Investigating the response of soil and vegetable crops to poultry and cow manure using ground and satellite data

Based on the massive production of cow and poultry manures, farmers in Saudi Arabia are moving towards the application of organic fertilizers in their farms. Therefore, the present work was conducted to study the response of soil and selected vegetable crops to poultry and cow manures, using ground data and Landsat-8 and Hyperion images. The studied vegetable crops are cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli, and lettuce. A total of 100 t ha^?1 organic manures were applied as a pre-planting treatment. A 12.5 ha field in Tawdeehiya Farms, 200 km southeast of Riyadh, was earmarked for this study. The field was divided into sectors cultivated with the above-mentioned vegetable crops. Soil characteristics, including the soil pH, the electric conductivity (EC), the nitrogen (N), the phosphorus (P) and the potassium (K), were examined before the application of manures and 25 days after the transplanting process. Observations on crops chlorophyll content, number of leaves, the diameter of merchantable products and yield were also investigated. Furthermore, the relationship between the crop performance and yield was investigated through the satellite images generated vegetation indices (VIs). This study revealed the better performance of poultry manure compared to cow manure in terms of development and production parameters of the experimental crops. Dynamics of the chlorophyll content across the crop growth period revealed that all the tested crops responded significantly (R² = 0.69; P = 0.001) to the poultry manure treatments. Among the tested crops, the chlorophyll content, curd or head sizes and crop yields were quite better in poultry manure applied plots. The investigation of crop yield was significant with poultry manure (R² = 0.64; P = 0.001) than cow manure (R² = 0.57; P = 0.001) using the OSAVI and mNDVI, respectively.     

Seventeenth century organic agriculture in China: I. Cropping systems in Jiaxing region

The cropping systems of seventeenth century traditional organic agriculture in the Jiaxing region of eastern China required about 2000 hr of labor per hectare for rice production. Rice and related grain crops were produced employing only human power. The input was about 200 times that for most mechanized grain production today. The charcoal or fossil energy input to produce simple hand tools accounted for only 1–2% total energy in the crop systems. Organic wastes including manures, pond sediments, and green manure crops supplied most of the nutrients. Rice yields, ranging as high as 6700–8400 kg/ha, were similar to some of the highest yields today. The energy output/input ratio ranged from 9 for compost-fertilized rice to 12 for green manure-fertilized rice production. These ratios were 2–10 times higher than most mechanized rice production systems of today. Knowledge of the crop and soil system enabled the early Chinese farms to maintain high crop yields and sustain highly productive soils.     

Mixed crop–livestock farming systems: a sustainable way to produce beef? Commercial farms results,questions and perspectives

Mixed crop–livestock (MC–L) farming has gained broad consensus as an economically and environmentally sustainable farming system. Working on a Charolais-area suckler cattle farms network, we subdivided the 66 farms of a constant sample, for 2 years (2010 and 2011), into four groups: (i) ‘specialized conventional livestock farms’ (100% grassland-based farms (GF), n=7); (ii) ‘integrated conventional crop–livestock farms’ (specialized farms that only market animal products but that grow cereal crops on-farm for animal feed, n=31); (iii) ‘mixed conventional crop–livestock farms’ (farms that sell beef and cereal crops to market, n=21); and (iv) organic farms (n=7). We analyse the differences in structure and in drivers of technical, economic and environmental performances. The figures for all the farms over 2 years (2010 and 2011) were pooled into a single sample for each group. The farms that sell crops alongside beef miss out on potential economies of scale. These farms are bigger than specialized beef farms (with or without on-farm feed crops) and all types of farms show comparable economic performances. The big MC–L farms make heavier and consequently less efficient use of inputs. This use of less efficient inputs also weakens their environmental performances. This subpopulation of suckler cattle farms appears unable to translate a MC–L strategy into economies of scope. Organic farms most efficiently exploit the diversity of herd feed resources, thus positioning organic agriculture as a prototype MC–L system meeting the core principles of agroecology.     

Soil fertility and its significance to crop productivity and sustainability in typical agroecosystem: a summary of long-term fertilizer experiments in China

Aims and background

Soil fertility quality index is a useful indicator that helps to improve sustainable land use management and achieve economical yield in agriculture production. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the changes of soil fertility quality between the 1980s and 2000s in different cropping systems and its significance to crop productivity and sustainability.

Methods

We collected all published data on crop yields and soil parameters from 58 long-term experiments in three typical double-cropping systems in China, including maize-wheat (M-W), rice-rice (R-R) and rice-wheat (R-W) cropping systems, and selected seven fertilizer treatments in each experiment, including inorganic fertilizer [nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer (NP), nitrogen and potassium fertilizer (NK), phosphorus and potassium fertilizer (PK) and balanced mineral fertilizer (NPK)], combined NPK with farmyard manure (NPKM) or crop straw (NPKS), and no fertilizer application (served as control). For comparison, an integrated fertility quality index (IFQI) was used to estimate the variations in soil fertility in different cropping systems. Moreover, the mean production variability index (PVI, %) in each cropping system was calculated to evaluate the stability of crop production.

Results

Over cropping systems, the averaged relative yields of PK, NK and NP ranged from 38.0 to 97.4 %, while the mean yields can be increased by 2.4–5.1 % in NPKM, compared to NPK. The mean yields were similar between NPK and NPKS for maize and wheat crops, but the yield was increased by 4.3–10.0 % in NPKS. Among the different treatments, the highest variability of cereal productivity was obtained in NK, PK or Control, while the lowest value was mostly recorded in NPKM or NPKS in these three cropping systems. Relative to the control, the IFQIs in fertilization treatments were increased by 9.4–150.0 %, 6.2–41.5 % and 1.3–17.5 % in M-W, R-W and R-R systems, respectively (except for PK treatment in R-R system). However, changes of IFQI in topsoil differed among fertilizer treatments, and greater increases existed in the treatments receiving organic residues (NPKM and NPKS).

Conclusions

The increase in crop yield is exponentially correlated with the increased IFQI over treatments in three cropping systems. Over the treatments and systems, production variability among years is shown to be negatively, linearly related to IFQI (P?<?0.001). Therefore, the high grain yield and low production variability can be simultaneously achieved by increasing soil fertility in all three cropping systems.     

Recent collapse of crop belts and declining diversity of US agriculture since 1840

Over the last century, US agriculture greatly intensified and became industrialized, increasing in inputs and yields while decreasing in total cropland area. In the industrial sector, spatial agglomeration effects are typical, but such changes in the patterns of crop types and diversity would have major implications for the resilience of food systems to global change. Here, we investigate the extent to which agricultural industrialization in the United States was accompanied by agglomeration of crop types, not just overall cropland area, as well as declines in crop diversity. Based on county‐level analyses of individual crop land cover area in the conterminous United States from 1840 to 2017, we found a strong and abrupt spatial concentration of most crop types in very recent years. For 13 of the 18 major crops, the widespread belts that characterized early 20th century US agriculture have collapsed, with spatial concentration increasing 15‐fold after 2002. The number of counties producing each crop declined from 1940 to 2017 by up to 97%, and their total area declined by up to 98%, despite increasing total production. Concomitantly, the diversity of crop types within counties plummeted: in 1940, 88% of counties grew >10 crops, but only 2% did so in 2017, and combinations of crop types that once characterized entire agricultural regions are lost. Importantly, declining crop diversity with increasing cropland area is a recent phenomenon, suggesting that corresponding environmental effects in agriculturally dominated counties have fundamentally changed. For example, the spatial concentration of agriculture has important consequences for the spread of crop pests, agrochemical use, and climate change. Ultimately, the recent collapse of most agricultural belts and the loss of crop diversity suggest greater vulnerability of US food systems to environmental and economic change, but the spatial concentration of agriculture may also offer environmental benefits in areas that are no longer farmed.     

Economic impact of future biological nitrogen fixation technologies on United States agriculture

The economic impact of some future biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) technologies are estimated using AGSIM, an economietric model of United States agriculture. Five separate scenarios were modeled: (1) legumes fix more nitrogen (N₂) with no yield increase, (2) legumes fix more N₂ with an increase in yields of 10%, (3) N fertilization requirements on all crops are reduced 50% with no yield changes, (4) total elimination of N fertilization, and (5) total elimination of N fertilization and non-legume yields decrease 10%. Results indicate that BNF technologies have a high value to society. Increasing the efficiency of legumes to fix N₂ may have an annual US benefit of $1,067 million while decreasing N fertilization by 1,547 thousand metric tons. Total elimination of N fertilization of the major crops has an annual US benefit of $4,484 million.     

Comparative processing practices of the world’s major oilseed crops

The major oilseed crops were domesticated primarily as sources of edible oil. However, in all cases, yields of by-products are greater than the oil fraction, and, in reality, all oilseed crops serve dual purposes as sources of oil and of protein for human food, animal feed, and industrial products. Each crop has special requirements for extraction and for processing of oil and meal, and each has limitations as to location and timing of production and as to processibility in oil mills originally designed for other crops. Further, each oilseed has unique cultural, economic and utilization characteristics; for example, rapeseed (Brassica) can be grown in cool climates with short growing seasons. Cottonseed (Gossypium) is a by-product of the more valuable fiber crop, and its availability is dictated by the profitability of growing cotton for the world market. Although peanuts (Arachis hypogaea) are used primarily as peanut butter and nuts in the United States, they are almost exclusively pressed for oil in other countries. In this paper, cultural practices and processing requirements of soybean (Glycine max), cottonseed, sunflower (Helianthus annuus), rapeseed, peanut, and sesame (Sesamum indicum) oils and byproducts are compared, as well as compositions of major oilmilling fractions, oils and proteins.     

Panicum sonorum in Sonoran Desert agriculture

Evidence of prehistoric domestication of plants native to southwestern United States is rare. Presented here are archaeological, historic and contemporary ethnobotanical data suggesting that a native grain, Panicum sonorum,was harvested, sown and culturally selected in the Sonoran Desert Region. This indicator crop, other new clarifications of indigenous crops, and water management practices all point to the distinctiveness of the region’s agricultural complex. As redefined here, the Sonoran Desert Agricultural Region is diverse in both native crops and in cultivars of introduced crops originating elsewhere.     

Commercial experience with miscanthus crops: Establishment,yields and environmental observations

This study investigates the condition of commercial miscanthus fields, growers’ concerns and reasons for growing the crop and also the modelling of a realistic commercial yield. Juvenile and mature Miscanthus × giganteus crops of varying age are surveyed in growers’ fields across mid‐England. We record in‐field plant density counts and the morphology of crops of different ages. Mature crops thrive on both clay and sandy soils. Plants surveyed appear robust to drought, weeds and disease, the only vulnerability is rhizome condition when planting. Mature miscanthus planted pre‐2014 continues to develop, spreading into planting gaps and growing more tillers. In stands planted post‐2014, improved planting techniques reduce planting gaps and create a reasonably consistent planting density of 12,500 plants/ha. The main reason for growers' investment in miscanthus is not financial return, but relates to its low requirement for field operations, low maintenance cost and regeneration. This offers practical solutions for difficult field access and social acceptability near public places (related to spray operations and crop vandalism). Wildlife is abundant in these fields, largely undisturbed except for harvest. This contributes to the greening of agriculture; fields are also used for gamebird cover and educational tours. This crop is solving practical problems for growers while improving the environment. Observed yield data indicate gradual yield increase with crop age, a yield plateau but no yield decrease since 2006. In stands with low planting densities, yields plateau after 9 years. Surveyed yield data are used to parameterize the MiscanFor bioenergy model. This produces options to simulate either juvenile yields or a yield for a landscape containing different aged crops. For mature English crop yields of 12 t ha^?1 year^?1, second‐ and third‐year juvenile harvests average 7 t ha^?1 year^?1 and a surrounding 10 km by 10 km area of distributed crop age would average 9 t ha^?1 year^?1.     

Early-Norse Home-Field Productivity in the Faroe Islands

In the early Norse settlement period throughout the North Atlantic, effective management of the land area surrounding the domestic settlement, the home-field, was essential. In the Faroe Islands, the extent of home-field land suitable for growing fodder or cereal crops is limited by topography and by drainage highlighting the need to optimize the management of these land areas. In this paper we examine the management of home-fields through a modeling approach, allowing the long-term sustainability of the past agrarian system in the home-field area to be examined. The CENTURY agroecosystem model is used to predict soil organic carbon levels and the potential hay meadow and cereal production for locations around three settlements on the islands of Su{–}deroy, Sandoy, and Eysteroy. Using paleoclimatic data and measurements from buried soil materials alongside ethnographic and historical evidence on land management, the results from this model reveal maximum hay and barley yields attainable through early agrarian practices. Comparisons between modeled outputs and recorded yields from the nineteenth century show that there is a strong moderating influence on longer-term climatic fluctuations. The role of soil management is emphasized through comparison of long-term climate/yield data. This has been undertaken using statistical time series analyses, which reveal fluctuations in yield related to climate are relatively slight, except going into the twentieth century. It is concluded that intensity of soil management is the primary determinant of yield and could buffer cereal and hay yields against climatic downturns, and that from a low yield baseline in the early Norse settlement period, yield improves to an equilibrium level by the twelfth century.     

The In Vitro Mass-Produced Model Mycorrhizal Fungus,Rhizophagus irregularis,Significantly Increases Yields of the Globally Important Food Security Crop Cassava

The arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is formed between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and plant roots. The fungi provide the plant with inorganic phosphate (P). The symbiosis can result in increased plant growth. Although most global food crops naturally form this symbiosis, very few studies have shown that their practical application can lead to large-scale increases in food production. Application of AMF to crops in the tropics is potentially effective for improving yields. However, a main problem of using AMF on a large-scale is producing cheap inoculum in a clean sterile carrier and sufficiently concentrated to cheaply transport. Recently, mass-produced in vitro inoculum of the model mycorrhizal fungus Rhizophagus irregularis became available, potentially making its use viable in tropical agriculture. One of the most globally important food plants in the tropics is cassava. We evaluated the effect of in vitro mass-produced R. irregularis inoculum on the yield of cassava crops at two locations in Colombia. A significant effect of R. irregularis inoculation on yield occurred at both sites. At one site, yield increases were observed irrespective of P fertilization. At the other site, inoculation with AMF and 50% of the normally applied P gave the highest yield. Despite that AMF inoculation resulted in greater food production, economic analyses revealed that AMF inoculation did not give greater return on investment than with conventional cultivation. However, the amount of AMF inoculum used was double the recommended dose and was calculated with European, not Colombian, inoculum prices. R. irregularis can also be manipulated genetically in vitro, leading to improved plant growth. We conclude that application of in vitro R. irregularis is currently a way of increasing cassava yields, that there is a strong potential for it to be economically profitable and that there is enormous potential to improve this efficiency further in the future.     

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6‐year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn (Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit‐oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops have a higher potential to successfully compete with corn under marginal crop production conditions.     

Temporal changes in climatic variables and their impact on crop yields in southwestern China

Knowledge of variability in climatic variables changes and its impact on crop yields is important for farmers and policy makers, especially in southwestern China where rainfed agriculture is dominant. In the current study, six climatic parameters (mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, temperature difference, and rainy days) and aggregated yields of three main crops (rice: Oryza sativa L., oilseed rape: Brassica napus L., and tobacco: Nicotiana tabacum L.) during 1985–2010 were collected and analyzed for Chongqing—a large agricultural municipality of China. Climatic variables changes were detected by Mann-Kendall test. Increased mean temperature and temperature difference and decreased relative humidity were found in annual and oilseed rape growth time series (P?<?0.05). Increased sunshine hours were observed during the oilseed rape growth period (P?<?0.05). Rainy days decreased slightly in annual and oilseed rape growth time series (P?<?0.10). Correlation analysis showed that yields of all three crops could benefit from changes in climatic variables in this region. Yield of rice increased with rainfall (P?<?0.10). Yield of oilseed rape increased with mean temperature and temperature difference but decreased with relative humidity (P?<?0.01). Tobacco yield increased with mean temperature (P?<?0.05). Path analysis provided additional information about the importance and contribution paths of climatic variables to crop yields. Temperature difference and sunshine hours had higher direct and indirect effects via other climatic variables on yields of rice and tobacco. Mean temperature, relative humidity, rainy days, and temperature difference had higher direct and indirect effects via others on yield of oilseed rape.