The analysis of disease biomarker data using a mixed hidden Markov model (Open Access publication)

A mixed hidden Markov model (HMM) was developed for predicting breeding values of a biomarker (here, somatic cell score) and the individual probabilities of health and disease (here, mastitis) based upon the measurements of the biomarker. At a first level, the unobserved disease process (Markov model) was introduced and at a second level, the measurement process was modeled, making the link between the unobserved disease states and the observed biomarker values. This hierarchical formulation allows joint estimation of the parameters of both processes. The flexibility of this approach is illustrated on the simulated data. Firstly, lactation curves for the biomarker were generated based upon published parameters (mean, variance, and probabilities of infection) for cows with known clinical conditions (health or mastitis due to Escherichia coli or Staphylococcus aureus). Next, estimation of the parameters was performed via Gibbs sampling, assuming the health status was unknown. Results from the simulations and mathematics show that the mixed HMM is appropriate to estimate the quantities of interest although the accuracy of the estimates is moderate when the prevalence of the disease is low. The paper ends with some indications for further developments of the methodology.     

Comparison of glycosyltransferase families using the profile hidden Markov model

In order to investigate the relationship between glycosyltransferase families and the motif for them, we classified 47 glycosyltransferase families in the CAZy database into four superfamilies, GTS-A, -B, -C, and -D, using a profile Hidden Markov Model method. On the basis of the classification and the similarity between GTS-A and nucleotidylyltransferase family catalyzing the synthesis of nucleotide-sugar, we proposed that ancient oligosaccharide might have been synthesized by the origin of GTS-B whereas the origin of GTS-A might be the gene encoding for synthesis of nucleotide-sugar as the donor and have evolved to glycosyltransferases to catalyze the synthesis of divergent carbohydrates. We also suggested that the divergent evolution of each superfamily in the corresponding subcellular component has increased the complexities of eukaryotic carbohydrate structure.     

Sequence alignments and pair hidden Markov models using evolutionary history

This work presents a novel pairwise statistical alignment method based on an explicit evolutionary model of insertions and deletions (indels). Indel events of any length are possible according to a geometric distribution. The geometric distribution parameter, the indel rate, and the evolutionary time are all maximum likelihood estimated from the sequences being aligned. Probability calculations are done using a pair hidden Markov model (HMM) with transition probabilities calculated from the indel parameters. Equations for the transition probabilities make the pair HMM closely approximate the specified indel model. The method provides an optimal alignment, its likelihood, the likelihood of all possible alignments, and the reliability of individual alignment regions. Human alpha and beta-hemoglobin sequences are aligned, as an illustration of the potential utility of this pair HMM approach.     

An approach to determine myocardial ischemia by hidden Markov models

A hidden Markov model (HMM) of electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is presented for detection of myocardial ischemia. The time domain signals that are recorded by the ECG before and during the episode of local ischemia were pre-processed to produce input sequences, which is needed for the model training. The model is also verified by test data, and the results show that the models have certain function for the detection of myocardial ischemia. The algorithm based on HMM provides a possible approach for the timely, rapid and automatic diagnosis of myocardial ischemia, and also can be used in portable medical diagnostic equipment in the future.     

Classifying movement behaviour in relation to environmental conditions using hidden Markov models

1.  Linking the movement and behaviour of animals to their environment is a central problem in ecology. Through the use of electronic tagging and tracking (ETT), collection of in situ data from free-roaming animals is now commonplace, yet statistical approaches enabling direct relation of movement observations to environmental conditions are still in development.
2.  In this study, we examine the hidden Markov model (HMM) for behavioural analysis of tracking data. HMMs allow for prediction of latent behavioural states while directly accounting for the serial dependence prevalent in ETT data. Updating the probability of behavioural switches with tag or remote-sensing data provides a statistical method that links environmental data to behaviour in a direct and integrated manner.
3.  It is important to assess the reliability of state categorization over the range of time-series lengths typically collected from field instruments and when movement behaviours are similar between movement states. Simulation with varying lengths of times series data and contrast between average movements within each state was used to test the HMMs ability to estimate movement parameters.
4.  To demonstrate the methods in a realistic setting, the HMMs were used to categorize resident and migratory phases and the relationship between movement behaviour and ocean temperature using electronic tagging data from southern bluefin tuna ( Thunnus maccoyii ). Diagnostic tools to evaluate the suitability of different models and inferential methods for investigating differences in behaviour between individuals are also demonstrated.     

Probabilistic methods of identifying genes in prokaryotic genomes: connections to the HMM theory

In this paper, we review developments in probabilistic methods of gene recognition in prokaryotic genomes with the emphasis on connections to the general theory of hidden Markov models (HMM). We show that the Bayesian method implemented in GeneMark, a frequently used gene-finding tool, can be augmented and reintroduced as a rigorous forward-backward (FB) algorithm for local posterior decoding described in the HMM theory. Another earlier developed method, prokaryotic GeneMark.hmm, uses a modification of the Viterbi algorithm for HMM with duration to identify the most likely global path through hidden functional states given the DNA sequence. GeneMark and GeneMark.hmm programs are worth using in concert for analysing prokaryotic DNA sequences that arguably do not follow any exact mathematical model. The new extension of GeneMark using the FB algorithm was implemented in the software program GeneMark.fba. Given the DNA sequence, this program determines an a posteriori probability for each nucleotide to belong to coding or non-coding region. Also, for any open reading frame (ORF), it assigns a score defined as a probabilistic measure of all paths through hidden states that traverse the ORF as a coding region. The prediction accuracy of GeneMark.fba determined in our tests was compared favourably to the accuracy of the initial (standard) GeneMark program. Comparison to the prokaryotic GeneMark.hmm has also demonstrated a certain, yet species-specific, degree of improvement in raw gene detection, ie detection of correct reading frame (and stop codon). The accuracy of exact gene prediction, which is concerned about precise prediction of gene start (which in a prokaryotic genome unambiguously defines the reading frame and stop codon, thus, the whole protein product), still remains more accurate in GeneMarkS, which uses more elaborate HMM to specifically address this task.     

Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.     

IPred - integrating ab initio and evidence based gene predictions to improve prediction accuracy

Background

Gene prediction is a challenging but crucial part in most genome analysis pipelines. Various methods have evolved that predict genes ab initio on reference sequences or evidence based with the help of additional information, such as RNA-Seq reads or EST libraries. However, none of these strategies is bias-free and one method alone does not necessarily provide a complete set of accurate predictions.

Results

We present IPred (Integrative gene Prediction), a method to integrate ab initio and evidence based gene identifications to complement the advantages of different prediction strategies. IPred builds on the output of gene finders and generates a new combined set of gene identifications, representing the integrated evidence of the single method predictions.

Conclusion

We evaluate IPred in simulations and real data experiments on Escherichia Coli and human data. We show that IPred improves the prediction accuracy in comparison to single method predictions and to existing methods for prediction combination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1315-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

HumGene:一个基于GHMM的人类基因预测软件

HumGene是一个采用广义隐Markov模型(GHMM)的人类基因预测软件.利用人类基因的结构特点,采用概率模型为基因结构中各个特定区域建立了独立的子模型,能够获得全局统一的评价指数,使得系统整体框架具有一定的扩展性.采用一种新的简化算法,有效地降低了计算的复杂度.介绍了软件的构成,对软件进行了测试,给出了与其它类似软件的结果比较.     

A combined transmembrane topology and signal peptide prediction method

An inherent problem in transmembrane protein topology prediction and signal peptide prediction is the high similarity between the hydrophobic regions of a transmembrane helix and that of a signal peptide, leading to cross-reaction between the two types of predictions. To improve predictions further, it is therefore important to make a predictor that aims to discriminate between the two classes. In addition, topology information can be gained when successfully predicting a signal peptide leading a transmembrane protein since it dictates that the N terminus of the mature protein must be on the non-cytoplasmic side of the membrane. Here, we present Phobius, a combined transmembrane protein topology and signal peptide predictor. The predictor is based on a hidden Markov model (HMM) that models the different sequence regions of a signal peptide and the different regions of a transmembrane protein in a series of interconnected states. Training was done on a newly assembled and curated dataset. Compared to TMHMM and SignalP, errors coming from cross-prediction between transmembrane segments and signal peptides were reduced substantially by Phobius. False classifications of signal peptides were reduced from 26.1% to 3.9% and false classifications of transmembrane helices were reduced from 19.0% to 7.7%. Phobius was applied to the proteomes of Homo sapiens and Escherichia coli. Here we also noted a drastic reduction of false classifications compared to TMHMM/SignalP, suggesting that Phobius is well suited for whole-genome annotation of signal peptides and transmembrane regions. The method is available at as well as at     

A quantitative approach for polymerase chain reactions based on a hidden Markov model

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is a major DNA amplification technology from molecular biology. The quantitative analysis of PCR aims at determining the initial amount of the DNA molecules from the observation of typically several PCR amplifications curves. The mainstream observation scheme of the DNA amplification during PCR involves fluorescence intensity measurements. Under the classical assumption that the measured fluorescence intensity is proportional to the amount of present DNA molecules, and under the assumption that these measurements are corrupted by an additive Gaussian noise, we analyze a single amplification curve using a hidden Markov model(HMM). The unknown parameters of the HMM may be separated into two parts. On the one hand, the parameters from the amplification process are the initial number of the DNA molecules and the replication efficiency, which is the probability of one molecule to be duplicated. On the other hand, the parameters from the observational scheme are the scale parameter allowing to convert the fluorescence intensity into the number of DNA molecules and the mean and variance characterizing the Gaussian noise. We use the maximum likelihood estimation procedure to infer the unknown parameters of the model from the exponential phase of a single amplification curve, the main parameter of interest for quantitative PCR being the initial amount of the DNA molecules. An illustrative example is provided. This research was financed by the Swedish foundation for Strategic Research through the Gothenburg Mathematical Modelling Centre.     

On identification of Na+ channel gating schemes using moving-average filtered hidden Markov models

 Transitions between distinct kinetic states of an ion channel are described by a Markov process. Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been successfully applied in the analysis of single ion channel recordings with a small signal-to-noise ratio. However, we have recently shown that the anti-aliasing low-pass filter misleads parameter estimation. Here, we show for the case of a Na⁺ channel recording that the standard HMM do neither allow parameter estimation nor a correct identification of the gating scheme. In particular, the number of closed and open states is determined incorrectly, whereas a modified HMM considering the anti-aliasing filter (moving-average filtered HMM) is able to reproduce the characteristic properties of the time series and to perform gating scheme identification. Received: 11 February 1999 / Revised version: 18 June 1999 / Accepted: 21 June 1999     

Estimating Variable Effective Population Sizes from Multiple Genomes: A Sequentially Markov Conditional Sampling Distribution Approach

Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times.     

A biologist's guide to de novo genome assembly using next-generation sequence data: A test with fungal genomes

We offer a guide to de novo genome assembly¹ using sequence data generated by the Illumina platform for biologists working with fungi or other organisms whose genomes are less than 100 Mb in size. The guide requires no familiarity with sequencing assembly technology or associated computer programs. It defines commonly used terms in genome sequencing and assembly; provides examples of assembling short-read genome sequence data for four strains of the fungus Grosmannia clavigera using four assembly programs; gives examples of protocols and software; and presents a commented flowchart that extends from DNA preparation for submission to a sequencing center, through to processing and assembly of the raw sequence reads using freely available operating systems and software.     

Analysis of the plant architecture via tree-structured statistical models: the hidden Markov tree models

Plant architecture is the result of repetitions that occur through growth and branching processes. During plant ontogeny, changes in the morphological characteristics of plant entities are interpreted as the indirect translation of different physiological states of the meristems. Thus connected entities can exhibit either similar or very contrasted characteristics. We propose a statistical model to reveal and characterize homogeneous zones and transitions between zones within tree-structured data: the hidden Markov tree (HMT) model. This model leads to a clustering of the entities into classes sharing the same 'hidden state'. The application of the HMT model to two plant sets (apple trees and bush willows), measured at annual shoot scale, highlights ordered states defined by different morphological characteristics. The model provides a synthetic overview of state locations, pointing out homogeneous zones or ruptures. It also illustrates where within branching structures, and when during plant ontogeny, morphological changes occur. However, the labelling exhibits some patterns that cannot be described by the model parameters. Some of these limitations are addressed by two alternative HMT families.