Do Pressures to Publish Increase Scientists' Bias? An Empirical Support from US States Data

The growing competition and “publish or perish” culture in academia might conflict with the objectivity and integrity of research, because it forces scientists to produce “publishable” results at all costs. Papers are less likely to be published and to be cited if they report “negative” results (results that fail to support the tested hypothesis). Therefore, if publication pressures increase scientific bias, the frequency of “positive” results in the literature should be higher in the more competitive and “productive” academic environments. This study verified this hypothesis by measuring the frequency of positive results in a large random sample of papers with a corresponding author based in the US. Across all disciplines, papers were more likely to support a tested hypothesis if their corresponding authors were working in states that, according to NSF data, produced more academic papers per capita. The size of this effect increased when controlling for state''s per capita R&D expenditure and for study characteristics that previous research showed to correlate with the frequency of positive results, including discipline and methodology. Although the confounding effect of institutions'' prestige could not be excluded (researchers in the more productive universities could be the most clever and successful in their experiments), these results support the hypothesis that competitive academic environments increase not only scientists'' productivity but also their bias. The same phenomenon might be observed in other countries where academic competition and pressures to publish are high.     

How Often Are Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria Said to “Evolve” in the News?

Media plays an important role in informing the general public about scientific ideas. We examine whether the word “evolve,” sometimes considered controversial by the general public, is frequently used in the popular press. Specifically, we ask how often articles discussing antibiotic resistance use the word “evolve” (or its lexemes) as opposed to alternative terms such as “emerge” or “develop.” We chose the topic of antibiotic resistance because it is a medically important issue; bacterial evolution is a central player in human morbidity and mortality. We focused on the most widely-distributed newspapers written in English in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, India, and Australia. We examined all articles that focused primarily on the evolution of antibiotic resistance, were published in 2014 or earlier, and were accessible in online archives, for a total of 1639 articles. The total years examined per newspaper ranged from 5 to 37 years with a median of 27 years, and the overall range was 1978–2014. We quantified how many articles included the term “evolve” and analyzed how this varied with newspaper, country, and time. We found that an overall rate of 18% of articles used the term “evolve” but with significant variation among countries. Newspapers in the United Kingdom had the highest rate (24%), more than double of those in India (9%), the country with the lowest rate. These frequencies were lower than those found in scientific papers from both evolutionary journals and biomedical journals. There were no statistically significant changes in frequency and no trends when “evolve” usage was compared against variables such as newspaper circulation, liberal/conservative bias, time, and state evolution acceptance in U.S. newspapers. This study highlights the globally low usage of the word “evolve” in the popular press. We suggest this low usage may affect public understanding and acceptance of evolutionary concepts.     

Publication Bias in Reports of Animal Stroke Studies Leads to Major Overstatement of Efficacy

The consolidation of scientific knowledge proceeds through the interpretation and then distillation of data presented in research reports, first in review articles and then in textbooks and undergraduate courses, until truths become accepted as such both amongst “experts” and in the public understanding. Where data are collected but remain unpublished, they cannot contribute to this distillation of knowledge. If these unpublished data differ substantially from published work, conclusions may not reflect adequately the underlying biological effects being described. The existence and any impact of such “publication bias” in the laboratory sciences have not been described. Using the CAMARADES (Collaborative Approach to Meta-analysis and Review of Animal Data in Experimental Studies) database we identified 16 systematic reviews of interventions tested in animal studies of acute ischaemic stroke involving 525 unique publications. Only ten publications (2%) reported no significant effects on infarct volume and only six (1.2%) did not report at least one significant finding. Egger regression and trim-and-fill analysis suggested that publication bias was highly prevalent (present in the literature for 16 and ten interventions, respectively) in animal studies modelling stroke. Trim-and-fill analysis suggested that publication bias might account for around one-third of the efficacy reported in systematic reviews, with reported efficacy falling from 31.3% to 23.8% after adjustment for publication bias. We estimate that a further 214 experiments (in addition to the 1,359 identified through rigorous systematic review; non publication rate 14%) have been conducted but not reported. It is probable that publication bias has an important impact in other animal disease models, and more broadly in the life sciences.     

Sex Differences and Emotion Regulation: An Event-Related Potential Study

Difficulties in emotion regulation have been implicated as a potential mechanism underlying anxiety and mood disorders. It is possible that sex differences in emotion regulation may contribute towards the heightened female prevalence for these disorders. Previous fMRI studies of sex differences in emotion regulation have shown mixed results, possibly due to difficulties in discriminating the component processes of early emotional reactivity and emotion regulation. The present study used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine sex differences in N1 and N2 components (reflecting early emotional reactivity) and P3 and LPP components (reflecting emotion regulation). N1, N2, P3, and LPP were recorded from 20 men and 23 women who were instructed to “increase,” “decrease,” and “maintain” their emotional response during passive viewing of negative images. Results indicated that women had significantly greater N1 and N2 amplitudes (reflecting early emotional reactivity) to negative stimuli than men, supporting a female negativity bias. LPP amplitudes increased to the “increase” instruction, and women displayed greater LPP amplitudes than men to the “increase” instruction. There were no differences to the “decrease” instruction in women or men. These findings confirm predictions of the female negativity bias hypothesis and suggest that women have greater up-regulation of emotional responses to negative stimuli. This finding is highly significant in light of the female vulnerability for developing anxiety disorders.     

Why Publishing Everything Is More Effective than Selective Publishing of Statistically Significant Results

Background

De Winter and Happee [1] examined whether science based on selective publishing of significant results may be effective in accurate estimation of population effects, and whether this is even more effective than a science in which all results are published (i.e., a science without publication bias). Based on their simulation study they concluded that “selective publishing yields a more accurate meta-analytic estimation of the true effect than publishing everything, (and that) publishing nonreplicable results while placing null results in the file drawer can be beneficial for the scientific collective” (p.4).

Methods and Findings

Using their scenario with a small to medium population effect size, we show that publishing everything is more effective for the scientific collective than selective publishing of significant results. Additionally, we examined a scenario with a null effect, which provides a more dramatic illustration of the superiority of publishing everything over selective publishing.

Conclusion

Publishing everything is more effective than only reporting significant outcomes.     

Separation from the Dam Causes Negative Judgement Bias in Dairy Calves

Negative emotional states in humans are associated with a negative (pessimistic) response bias towards ambiguous cues in judgement tasks. Every mammalian young is eventually weaned; this period of increasing nutritional and social independence from the dam is associated with a pronounced behavioural response, especially when weaning is abrupt as commonly occurs in farm animals. The aim of the current study was to test the effect of separation from the cow on the responses of dairy calves in a judgement task. Thirteen Holstein calves were reared with their dams and trained to discriminate between red and white colours displayed on a computer monitor. These colours predicted reward or punishment outcomes using a go/no-go task. A reward was provided when calves approached the white screen and calves were punished with a timeout when they approached the red screen. Calves were then tested with non-reinforced ambiguous probes (screen colours intermediate to the two training colours). “GO” responses to these probes averaged (± SE) 72±3.6 % before separation but declined to 62±3.6 % after separation from the dam. This bias was similar to that shown by calves experiencing pain in the hours after hot-iron dehorning. These results provide the first evidence of a pessimistic judgement bias in animals following maternal separation and are indicative of low mood.     

Passive smoking and lung cancer: a publication bias?

To assess the likelihood of publication bias in a recent review of the effect of passive smoking on lung cancer the evidence from the reviewed papers was visualised on a “funnel” plot. In such a plot if the relative risks from various studies are plotted according to sample size they should scatter round some underlying true value, the scatter being greatest where the studies have the lowest statistical power—thus showing a “funnel” pattern. If there is publication bias and studies with non-significant results are not being published there should be a “gap” in the plot. The logarithm of the relative risks was plotted against the standard error of the logarithm of the relative risk (which was used instead of sample size as a measure of statistical uncertainty). The resulting plot was compatible with a publication bias but only in studies on men.Further studies of passive smoking and lung cancer in men seem to be warranted.     

Model-Based Control of Observer Bias for the Analysis of Presence-Only Data in Ecology

Presence-only data, where information is available concerning species presence but not species absence, are subject to bias due to observers being more likely to visit and record sightings at some locations than others (hereafter “observer bias”). In this paper, we describe and evaluate a model-based approach to accounting for observer bias directly – by modelling presence locations as a function of known observer bias variables (such as accessibility variables) in addition to environmental variables, then conditioning on a common level of bias to make predictions of species occurrence free of such observer bias. We implement this idea using point process models with a LASSO penalty, a new presence-only method related to maximum entropy modelling, that implicitly addresses the “pseudo-absence problem” of where to locate pseudo-absences (and how many). The proposed method of bias-correction is evaluated using systematically collected presence/absence data for 62 plant species endemic to the Blue Mountains near Sydney, Australia. It is shown that modelling and controlling for observer bias significantly improves the accuracy of predictions made using presence-only data, and usually improves predictions as compared to pseudo-absence or “inventory” methods of bias correction based on absences from non-target species. Future research will consider the potential for improving the proposed bias-correction approach by estimating the observer bias simultaneously across multiple species.     

A Statistical Analysis of Reviewer Agreement and Bias in Evaluating Medical Abstracts

Observer variability affects virtually all aspects of clinical medicine and investigation. One important aspect, not previously examined, is the selection of abstracts for presentation at national medical meetings. In the present study, 109 abstracts, submitted to the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease, were evaluated by three “blind” reviewers for originality, design-execution, importance, and overall scientific merit. Of the 77 abstracts rated for all parameters by all observers, interobserver agreement ranged between 81 and 88%. However, corresponding intraclass correlations varied between 0.16 (approaching statistical significance) and 0.37 (p < 0.01). Specific tests of systematic differences in scoring revealed statistically significant levels of observer bias on most of the abstract components. Moreover, the mean differences in interobserver ratings were quite small compared to the standard deviations of these differences. These results emphasize the importance of evaluating the simple percentage of rater agreement within the broader context of observer variability and systematic bias.     

Reduction of Pavlovian Bias in Schizophrenia: Enhanced Effects in Clozapine-Administered Patients

The negative symptoms of schizophrenia (SZ) are associated with a pattern of reinforcement learning (RL) deficits likely related to degraded representations of reward values. However, the RL tasks used to date have required active responses to both reward and punishing stimuli. Pavlovian biases have been shown to affect performance on these tasks through invigoration of action to reward and inhibition of action to punishment, and may be partially responsible for the effects found in patients. Forty-five patients with schizophrenia and 30 demographically-matched controls completed a four-stimulus reinforcement learning task that crossed action (“Go” or “NoGo”) and the valence of the optimal outcome (reward or punishment-avoidance), such that all combinations of action and outcome valence were tested. Behaviour was modelled using a six-parameter RL model and EEG was simultaneously recorded. Patients demonstrated a reduction in Pavlovian performance bias that was evident in a reduced Go bias across the full group. In a subset of patients administered clozapine, the reduction in Pavlovian bias was enhanced. The reduction in Pavlovian bias in SZ patients was accompanied by feedback processing differences at the time of the P3a component. The reduced Pavlovian bias in patients is suggested to be due to reduced fidelity in the communication between striatal regions and frontal cortex. It may also partially account for previous findings of poorer “Go-learning” in schizophrenia where “Go” responses or Pavlovian consistent responses are required for optimal performance. An attenuated P3a component dynamic in patients is consistent with a view that deficits in operant learning are due to impairments in adaptively using feedback to update representations of stimulus value.     

Naturalistic Stimulus Structure Determines the Integration of Audiovisual Looming Signals in Binocular Rivalry

Rapid integration of biologically relevant information is crucial for the survival of an organism. Most prominently, humans should be biased to attend and respond to looming stimuli that signal approaching danger (e.g. predator) and hence require rapid action. This psychophysics study used binocular rivalry to investigate the perceptual advantage of looming (relative to receding) visual signals (i.e. looming bias) and how this bias can be influenced by concurrent auditory looming/receding stimuli and the statistical structure of the auditory and visual signals.Subjects were dichoptically presented with looming/receding visual stimuli that were paired with looming or receding sounds. The visual signals conformed to two different statistical structures: (1) a ‘simple’ random-dot kinematogram showing a starfield and (2) a “naturalistic” visual Shepard stimulus. Likewise, the looming/receding sound was (1) a simple amplitude- and frequency-modulated (AM-FM) tone or (2) a complex Shepard tone. Our results show that the perceptual looming bias (i.e. the increase in dominance times for looming versus receding percepts) is amplified by looming sounds, yet reduced and even converted into a receding bias by receding sounds. Moreover, the influence of looming/receding sounds on the visual looming bias depends on the statistical structure of both the visual and auditory signals. It is enhanced when audiovisual signals are Shepard stimuli.In conclusion, visual perception prioritizes processing of biologically significant looming stimuli especially when paired with looming auditory signals. Critically, these audiovisual interactions are amplified for statistically complex signals that are more naturalistic and known to engage neural processing at multiple levels of the cortical hierarchy.     

Lost in the Forest,Stuck in the Trees: Dispositional Global/Local Bias Is Resistant to Exposure to High and Low Spatial Frequencies

Visual stimuli can be perceived at a broad, “global” level, or at a more focused, “local” level. While research has shown that many individuals demonstrate a preference for global information, there are large individual differences in the degree of global/local bias, such that some individuals show a large global bias, some show a large local bias, and others show no bias. The main purpose of the current study was to examine whether these dispositional differences in global/local bias could be altered through various manipulations of high/low spatial frequency. Through 5 experiments, we examined various measures of dispositional global/local bias and whether performance on these measures could be altered by manipulating previous exposure to high or low spatial frequency information (with high/low spatial frequency faces, gratings, and Navon letters). Ultimately, there was little evidence of change from pre-to-post manipulation on the dispositional measures, and dispositional global/local bias was highly reliable pre- to post-manipulation. The results provide evidence that individual differences in global/local bias or preference are relatively resistant to exposure to spatial frequency information, and suggest that the processing mechanisms underlying high/low spatial frequency use and global/local bias may be more independent than previously thought.     

Functional Selectivity of 6′-Guanidinonaltrindole (6′-GNTI) at κ-Opioid Receptors in Striatal Neurons

There is considerable evidence to suggest that drug actions at the κ-opioid receptor (KOR) may represent a means to control pain perception and modulate reward thresholds. As a G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR), the activation of KOR promotes Gα_i/o protein coupling and the recruitment of β-arrestins. It has become increasingly evident that GPCRs can transduce signals that originate independently via G protein pathways and β-arrestin pathways; the ligand-dependent bifurcation of such signaling is referred to as “functional selectivity” or “signaling bias.” Recently, a KOR agonist, 6′-guanidinonaltrindole (6′-GNTI), was shown to display bias toward the activation of G protein-mediated signaling over β-arrestin2 recruitment. Therefore, we investigated whether such ligand bias was preserved in striatal neurons. Although the reference KOR agonist U69,593 induces the phosphorylation of ERK1/2 and Akt, 6′-GNTI only activates the Akt pathway in striatal neurons. Using pharmacological tools and β-arrestin2 knock-out mice, we show that KOR-mediated ERK1/2 phosphorylation in striatal neurons requires β-arrestin2, whereas Akt activation depends upon G protein signaling. These findings reveal a point of KOR signal bifurcation that can be observed in an endogenous neuronal setting and may prove to be an important indicator when developing biased agonists at the KOR.     

“Positive” Results Increase Down the Hierarchy of the Sciences

The hypothesis of a Hierarchy of the Sciences with physical sciences at the top, social sciences at the bottom, and biological sciences in-between is nearly 200 years old. This order is intuitive and reflected in many features of academic life, but whether it reflects the “hardness” of scientific research—i.e., the extent to which research questions and results are determined by data and theories as opposed to non-cognitive factors—is controversial. This study analysed 2434 papers published in all disciplines and that declared to have tested a hypothesis. It was determined how many papers reported a “positive” (full or partial) or “negative” support for the tested hypothesis. If the hierarchy hypothesis is correct, then researchers in “softer” sciences should have fewer constraints to their conscious and unconscious biases, and therefore report more positive outcomes. Results confirmed the predictions at all levels considered: discipline, domain and methodology broadly defined. Controlling for observed differences between pure and applied disciplines, and between papers testing one or several hypotheses, the odds of reporting a positive result were around 5 times higher among papers in the disciplines of Psychology and Psychiatry and Economics and Business compared to Space Science, 2.3 times higher in the domain of social sciences compared to the physical sciences, and 3.4 times higher in studies applying behavioural and social methodologies on people compared to physical and chemical studies on non-biological material. In all comparisons, biological studies had intermediate values. These results suggest that the nature of hypotheses tested and the logical and methodological rigour employed to test them vary systematically across disciplines and fields, depending on the complexity of the subject matter and possibly other factors (e.g., a field''s level of historical and/or intellectual development). On the other hand, these results support the scientific status of the social sciences against claims that they are completely subjective, by showing that, when they adopt a scientific approach to discovery, they differ from the natural sciences only by a matter of degree.     

STRETCHING OF THE SCIATIC NERVE—A Means of Relieving Postoperative Pain Following Removal of Ruptured Lumbar Intervertebral Discs

Stretching the sciatic nerve for the relief of “sciatica” was frequently employed before 1900 and was subsequently abandoned, probably because it was done without sufficient scrutiny of the indications. The procedure has recently been employed in cases in which “sciatica” remains following the operative removal of ruptured intervertebral discs, and it has been instrumental in relieving postoperative “sciatica” when the cause was the formation of adhesions about the lumbar nerve roots. If the nerve root is compressed by recurrent disc protrusion or by adjacent bone, the manipulation usually increases the pain, a phenomenon that has been helpful from a diagnostic standpoint.     

Kinship,dear enemies,and costly combat: The effects of relatedness on territorial overlap and aggression in a cooperative breeder

Many species maintain territories, but the degree of overlap between territories and the level of aggression displayed in territorial conflicts can vary widely, even within species. Greater territorial overlap may occur when neighboring territory holders are close relatives. Animals may also differentiate neighbors from strangers, with more familiar neighbors eliciting less‐aggressive responses during territorial conflicts (the “dear enemy” effect). However, research is lacking in how both kinship and overlap affect territorial conflicts, especially in group‐living species. Here, we investigate kinship, territorial overlap, and territorial conflict in a habituated wild population of group‐living cooperatively breeding birds, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor. We find that close kin neighbors are beneficial. Territories overlap more when neighboring groups are close kin, and these larger overlaps with kin confer larger territories (an effect not seen for overlaps with unrelated groups). Overall, territorial conflict is costly, causing significant decreases in body mass, but conflicts with kin are shorter than those conducted with nonkin. Conflicts with more familiar unrelated neighbors are also shorter, indicating these neighbors are “dear enemies.” However, kinship modulates the “dear enemy” effect; even when kin are encountered less frequently, kin elicit less‐aggressive responses, similar to the “dear enemy” effect. Kin selection appears to be a main influence on territorial behavior in this species. Groups derive kin‐selected benefits from decreased conflicts and maintain larger territories when overlapping with kin, though not when overlapping with nonkin. More generally, it is possible that kinship extends the “dear enemy” effect in animal societies.     

Be Happy Not Sad for Your Youth: The Effect of Emotional Expression on Age Perception

Perceived age is a psychosocial factor that can influence both with whom and how we choose to interact socially. Though intuition tells us that a smile makes us look younger, surprisingly little empirical evidence exists to explain how age-irrelevant emotional expressions bias the subjective decision threshold for age. We examined the role that emotional expression plays in the process of judging one’s age from a face. College-aged participants were asked to sort the emotional and neutral expressions of male facial stimuli that had been morphed across eight age levels into categories of either “young” or “old.” Our results indicated that faces at the lower age levels were more likely to be categorized as old when they showed a sad facial expression compared to neutral expressions. Mirroring that, happy faces were more often judged as young at higher age levels than neutral faces. Our findings suggest that emotion interacts with age perception such that happy expression increases the threshold for an old decision, while sad expression decreases the threshold for an old decision in a young adult sample.     

Tissue Matching and Early Rejection of Cadaveric-Donor Renal Allografts: The Importance of Unidentified Donor Antigens

Tissue typing has been reviewed in a series of 100 technically successful cadaveric-donor kidney grafts. The criterion of transplant failure was immunological rejection causing total loss of function within three months of operation.No significant correlation was observed between matching grade and graft failure due to early acute rejection. This is attributed to the failure to detect at least one “LA” or “4” antigen (as defined in our laboratory), representing a potential incompatibility, in 89% of the grafts, and in the remaining 11% to the lack of an available recipient with identical “LA” and “4” typing. Undetected antigens on the donor are usually incompatible, and probably these incompatibilities unfavourably influence early graft survival.If the results of cadaveric-donor renal transplantation are to equal those of transplantation from well-matched living related donors it will be necessary to type with sera which can recognize individually all HL-A antigens, including those not yet identified, and to create an international pool of over 1,000 potential recipients.     

Prenatal,Perinatal and Neonatal Risk Factors for Intellectual Disability: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis

BackgroundThe etiology of non-genetic intellectual disability (ID) is not fully known, and we aimed to identify the prenatal, perinatal and neonatal risk factors for ID.MethodPubMed and Embase databases were searched for studies that examined the association between pre-, peri- and neonatal factors and ID risk (keywords “intellectual disability” or “mental retardation” or “ID” or “MR” in combination with “prenatal” or “pregnancy” or “obstetric” or “perinatal” or “neonatal”. The last search was updated on September 15, 2015. Summary effect estimates (pooled odds ratios) were calculated for each risk factor using random effects models, with tests for heterogeneity and publication bias.ResultsSeventeen studies with 55,344 patients and 5,723,749 control individuals were eligible for inclusion in our analysis, and 16 potential risk factors were analyzed. Ten prenatal factors (advanced maternal age, maternal black race, low maternal education, third or more parity, maternal alcohol use, maternal tobacco use, maternal diabetes, maternal hypertension, maternal epilepsy and maternal asthma), one perinatal factor (preterm birth) and two neonatal factors (male sex and low birth weight) were significantly associated with increased risk of ID.ConclusionThis systemic review and meta-analysis provides a comprehensive evidence-based assessment of the risk factors for ID. Future studies are encouraged to focus on perinatal and neonatal risk factors and the combined effects of multiple factors.     

Comparative Analysis of DNA Word Abundances in Four Yeast Genomes Using a Novel Statistical Background Model

Previous studies have shown that the identification and analysis of both abundant and rare k-mers or “DNA words of length k” in genomic sequences using suitable statistical background models can reveal biologically significant sequence elements. Other studies have investigated the uni/multimodal distribution of k-mer abundances or “k-mer spectra” in different DNA sequences. However, the existing background models are affected to varying extents by compositional bias. Moreover, the distribution of k-mer abundances in the context of related genomes has not been studied previously. Here, we present a novel statistical background model for calculating k-mer enrichment in DNA sequences based on the average of the frequencies of the two (k-1) mers for each k-mer. Comparison of our null model with the commonly used ones, including Markov models of different orders and the single mismatch model, shows that our method is more robust to compositional AT-rich bias and detects many additional, repeat-poor over-abundant k-mers that are biologically meaningful. Analysis of overrepresented genomic k-mers (4≤k≤16) from four yeast species using this model showed that the fraction of overrepresented DNA words falls linearly as k increases; however, a significant number of overabundant k-mers exists at higher values of k. Finally, comparative analysis of k-mer abundance scores across four yeast species revealed a mixture of unimodal and multimodal spectra for the various genomic sub-regions analyzed.