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1.
The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire‐response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5°° × 0.5°° grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO2 concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter‐annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.  相似文献   

2.
The terrestrial biosphere is currently acting as a sink for about a third of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the future fate of this sink in the coming decades is very uncertain, as current earth system models (ESMs) simulate diverging responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to upcoming climate change. Here, we use observation‐based constraints of water and carbon fluxes to reduce uncertainties in the projected terrestrial carbon cycle response derived from simulations of ESMs conducted as part of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find in the ESMs a clear linear relationship between present‐day evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP), as well as between these present‐day fluxes and projected changes in GPP, thus providing an emergent constraint on projected GPP. Constraining the ESMs based on their ability to simulate present‐day ET and GPP leads to a substantial decrease in the projected GPP and to a ca. 50% reduction in the associated model spread in GPP by the end of the century. Given the strong correlation between projected changes in GPP and in NBP in the ESMs, applying the constraints on net biome productivity (NBP) reduces the model spread in the projected land sink by more than 30% by 2100. Moreover, the projected decline in the land sink is at least doubled in the constrained ensembles and the probability that the terrestrial biosphere is turned into a net carbon source by the end of the century is strongly increased. This indicates that the decline in the future land carbon uptake might be stronger than previously thought, which would have important implications for the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and for future climate change.  相似文献   

3.
Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.  相似文献   

4.
5.
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land‐cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground‐based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub‐)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.  相似文献   

6.
Determining the equilibrium state of terrestrial carbon is a prerequisite for scientific analysis on the carbon cycle. However, the mechanism through which the carbon cycle reaches the equilibrium state remains unclear. Moreover, the carbon cycle in most of the short–term field experiments rarely reaches the equilibrium state. In this study, a detachable carbon cycle (DCC) model was proposed to simulate the equilibrium state of each carbon pool. The model was established based on a pool–and–flux scheme and contained 14 carbon pools, or carbon flow processes, each process could be detached from the main model and evaluated as an independent component. The environmental scalar algorithms of the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget model (InTEC) and Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) were incorporated in the DCC model. Four situations were compared using the two environmental scalar algorithms and model structure (9 vs. 14 carbon pools). Furthermore, the size and turnover time of each carbon pool were analyzed at the equilibrium state. A sensitivity analysis was then conducted to investigate the responses of carbon density and equilibrium time to 12 key parameters of the model. Results indicated that the combination of the CABLE environmental scalar algorithm and 14 pools exhibited improved performance on carbon storage simulation than that of the other combinations, and the effect of the environmental scalar algorithm was considerably larger than that of the carbon pool number. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the carbon density of grassland and cropland was more vulnerable and sensitive to key parameters of the model than that of the other biomes. This study elucidates influencing factors and underlying control mechanisms in the carbon accumulation, and provides a framework for quantitative analysis of each component of the carbon cycle.  相似文献   

7.
Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
Terrestrial ecosystems sequester roughly 30% of anthropogenic carbon emission. However this estimate has not been directly deduced from studies of terrestrial ecosystems themselves, but inferred from atmospheric and oceanic data. This raises a question: to what extent is the terrestrial carbon cycle intrinsically predictable? In this paper, we investigated fundamental properties of the terrestrial carbon cycle, examined its intrinsic predictability, and proposed a suite of future research directions to improve empirical understanding and model predictive ability. Specifically, we isolated endogenous internal processes of the terrestrial carbon cycle from exogenous forcing variables. The internal processes share five fundamental properties (i.e., compartmentalization, carbon input through photosynthesis, partitioning among pools, donor pool‐dominant transfers, and the first‐order decay) among all types of ecosystems on the Earth. The five properties together result in an emergent constraint on predictability of various carbon cycle components in response to five classes of exogenous forcing. Future observational and experimental research should be focused on those less predictive components while modeling research needs to improve model predictive ability for those highly predictive components. We argue that an understanding of predictability should provide guidance on future observational, experimental and modeling research.  相似文献   

8.
Aim To implement plant hydraulic architecture within the Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ–DGVM), and to test the model against a set of observational data. If the model can reproduce major patterns in vegetation and ecosystem processes, we consider this to be an important linkage between plant physiology and larger‐scale ecosystem dynamics. Location The location is global, geographically distributed. Methods A literature review was carried out to derive model formulations and parameter values for representing the hydraulic characteristics of major global plant functional types (PFTs) in a DGVM. After implementing the corresponding formulations within the LPJ–DGVM, present‐day model output was compared to observational data. Results The model reproduced observed broad‐scale patterns in potential natural vegetation, but it failed to distinguish accurately between different types of grassland and savanna vegetation, possibly related to inadequate model representations of water fluxes in the soil and wildfire effects. Compared to a version of the model using an empirical formulation for calculating plant water supply without considering plant hydraulic architecture, the new formulation improved simulated patterns of vegetation in particular for dry shrublands. Global‐scale simulation results for runoff and actual evapotranspiration (AET) corresponded well to available data. The model also successfully reproduced the magnitude and seasonal cycle of AET for most EUROFLUX forests, while modelled variation in NPP across a large number of sites spanning several biomes showed a strong correlation with estimates from field measurements. Main conclusions The model was generally confirmed by comparison to observational data. The novel model representation of water flow within plants makes it possible to resolve mechanistically the effects of hydraulic differences between plant functional groups on vegetation structure, water cycling, and competition. This may be an advantage when predicting ecosystem responses to nonextant climates, in particular in areas dominated by dry shrubland vegetation.  相似文献   

9.
外源碳输入对土壤碳源可利用性的改变不仅直接影响着微生物参与陆地生态系统的碳循环过程,而且也制约着微生物对其它营养元素的需求。在大气氮沉降持续增加的全球变化背景下,部分地区已出现生态系统氮养分条件的显著变化甚至土壤中活性氮素的过量积累,进而带来微生物对碳源需求的增加。通过人为调控碳源的可利用性,改善微生物的碳限制状况,将对科学的增加陆地生态系统固碳能力具有极为重大的意义。综述了国内外有关外源碳输入对土壤碳排放、凋落物分解以及土壤碳库影响及其主要的微生物作用机制的相关研究结果,以期能够为未来氮沉降持续增加情景下,如何科学有效地提高生态系统的碳汇潜力提供一定的参考。  相似文献   

10.
Pyrogeographic models,feedbacks and the future of global fire regimes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Conceptual and phenomenological macroecological models of current global fire activity have demonstrated the overwhelming control exerted by primary productivity. Fire activity is very high in savanna regions with intermediate primary productivity, and very low in both densely forested regions with high productivity and arid/cold regions with low productivity. However, predicting future global fire activity using such macroecological models of fire's global ‘niche’ may not be possible because of the feedbacks between fire, climate and vegetation that underpin the fire?productivity relationship. Improving forecasts of global fire activity demands the use of dynamic models to determine how climate, CO2, vegetation (i.e. canopy closure and plant functional types) and primary productivity constrain fire and evaluation of the strength of feedbacks amongst these variables.  相似文献   

11.
Measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and its stable carbon isotope composition, from gas samples trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica, indicate that the global carbon cycle has not been in steady state during the Holocene epoch. Inverse carbon cycle modelling has led to the hypothesized cumulative release from the terrestrial biosphere of 195 Gt C between 7 and 1 kyr before present (bp ). Here, three independent lines of evidence testing this hypothesis are critically examined: global reconstructions of terrestrial carbon reservoirs, vegetation–climate modelling, and high latitude subfossil plant stable carbon isotope records. Despite inherent uncertainties associated with each approach, it emerges that none strongly upholds the suggestion that terrestrial ecosystems released large amounts of carbon between 7 and 1 kyr bp . Consequently, our understanding of the processes involved in the exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere, oceans and land biota continues to remain incomplete and to require further investigation.  相似文献   

12.
区域尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程研究进展   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4  
于贵瑞  方华军  伏玉玲  王秋凤 《生态学报》2011,31(19):5449-5459
地球系统的碳库和碳循环过程变化是影响气候系统的重要因素,而陆地生态系统的碳收支及其循环过程机制研究一直是全球气候变化成因分析、变化趋势预测、减缓和适应对策分析领域的科学研究热点。回顾了过去几十年区域尺度陆地生态系统碳循环和碳收支研究领域的国际前沿及其关键科学问题,并分析了我国在该研究领域的科技需求和发展方向。当前国际科学研究的热点和前沿领域主要包括:生态系统和区域碳储量和碳收支的清查、综合计量与碳汇认证,陆地生态系统碳通量的联网观测及其循环过程机制,陆地生态系统碳循环过程对气候变化响应野外控制试验,陆地生态系统水、碳、氮循环及其耦合关系机制和模拟模型研究等,同时指出在这些研究领域依然存在且急需解决的关键科学问题。我国近期的科技工作重点工作应该是努力构建天-地-空一体化的碳储量和碳收支动态监测体系、开展生态系统碳-氮-水耦合循环及其区域调控管理的前瞻性研究,定量评价中国生态系统的碳收支状况和增汇潜力,评估各种典型生态系统增汇技术的经济效益,为国家尺度的温室气体管理和碳交易机制与政策体系的建立提供可报告、可度量和可核查的科学数据和技术支持。  相似文献   

13.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr?1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr?1). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr?1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr?1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is ?3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr?1 °C?1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (?3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr?1 °C?1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.  相似文献   

14.
At fine spatial scales, savanna‐rainforest‐grassland boundary dynamics are thought to be mediated by the interplay between fire, vegetation and soil feedbacks. These processes were investigated by quantifying tree species composition, the light environment, quantities and flammability of fuels, bark thickness, and soil conditions across stable and dynamic rainforest boundaries that adjoin grassland and eucalypt savanna in the highlands of the Bunya Mountains, southeast Queensland, Australia. The size class distribution of savanna and rainforest stems was indicative of the encroachment of rainforest species into savanna and grassland. Increasing dominance of rainforest trees corresponds to an increase in woody canopy cover, the dominance of litter fuels (woody debris and leaf), and decline in grass occurrence. There is marked difference in litter and grass fuel flammability and this result is largely an influence of strongly dissimilar fuel bulk densities. Relative bark thickness, a measure of stem fire resistance, was found to be generally greater in savanna species when compared to that of rainforest species, with notable exceptions being the conifers Araucaria bidwillii and Araucaria cunninghamii. A transect study of soil nutrients across one dynamic rainforest – grassland boundary indicated the mass of carbon and nitrogen, but not phosphorus, increased across the successional gradient. Soil carbon turnover time is shortest in stable rainforest, intermediate in dynamic rainforest and longest in grassland highlighting nutrient cycling differentiation. We conclude that the general absence of fire in the Bunya Mountains, due to a divergence from traditional Aboriginal burning practices, has allowed for the encroachment of fire‐sensitive rainforest species into the flammable biomes of this landscape. Rainforest invasion is likely to have reduced fire risk via changes to fuel composition and microclimatic conditions, and this feedback will be reinforced by altered nutrient cycling. The mechanics of the feedbacks here identified are discussed in terms of landscape change theory.  相似文献   

15.
The assumption that landscapes dominated by mature vegetation are presently in carbon steady state with the atmosphere is challenged. Evidence suggests that the vegetation and soils of these landscapes are frequently disturbed and over short time periods (<300 yr) slowly sequester atmospheric carbon. The critical consideration in this argument is the time interval used to evaluate a steady state. Current models of carbon flux through the terrestrial biota limit their time considerations to 120 yr, a short and inadequate time interval for realistic assumptions about steady state in the carbon cycle of vegetation.Research performed under subcontract 19B-07762C with S. Brown and 19X-43326C with the Center for Energy and Environment Research of the University of Puerto Rico (A. E. Lugo) under Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., contract DE-AC05-840R21400 with the U.S. Department of Energy.  相似文献   

16.
植物源VOCs及其对陆地生态系统碳循环的贡献   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
何念鹏  韩兴国  潘庆民 《生态学报》2005,25(8):2041-2048
综述了近20a来国内外关于植物源VOCs的研究进展。分析了植物源VOCs主要组成成分、生理-生态基础,以及影响植物VOCs释放速率的主要因素。重点探讨了植物源VOCs对陆地生态系统碳循环的潜在重要性,提出一些值得关注的问题。  相似文献   

17.
The efforts to explain the ‘missing sink’ for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) have included in recent years the role of nitrogen as an important constraint for biospheric carbon fluxes. We used the Nitrogen Carbon Interaction Model (NCIM) to investigate patterns of carbon and nitrogen storage in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere as a consequence of a rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, in combination with varying levels of nitrogen availability. This model has separate but closely coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles with a focus on soil processes and soil–plant interactions, including an active compartment of soil microorganisms decomposing litter residues and competing with plants for available nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation is represented as a function of vegetation nitrogen demand. The model was validated against several global datasets of soil and vegetation carbon and nitrogen pools. Five model experiments were carried out for the modeling periods 1860–2002 and 2002–2100. In these experiments we varied the nitrogen availability using different combinations of biological nitrogen fixation, denitrification, leaching of soluble nitrogen compounds with constant or rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Oversupply with nitrogen, in an experiment with nitrogen fixation, but no nitrogen losses, together with constant atmospheric CO2, led to some carbon sequestration in organismic pools, which was nearly compensated by losses of C from soil organic carbon pools. Rising atmospheric CO2 always led to carbon sequestration in the biosphere. Considering an open nitrogen cycle including dynamic nitrogen fixation, and nitrogen losses from denitrification and leaching, the carbon sequestration in the biosphere is of a magnitude comparable to current observation based estimates of the ‘missing sink.’ A fertilization feedback between the carbon and nitrogen cycles occurred in this experiment, which was much stronger than the sum of separate influences of high nitrogen supply and rising atmospheric CO2. The demand‐driven biological nitrogen fixation was mainly responsible for this result. For the modeling period 2002–2100, NCIM predicts continued carbon sequestration in the low range of previously published estimates, combined with a plausible rate of CO2‐driven biological nitrogen fixation and substantial redistribution of nitrogen from soil to plant pools.  相似文献   

18.
Interannual variation of terrestrial carbon cycle: Issues and perspectives   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
With accumulation of carbon cycle observations and model developments over the past decades, exploring interannual variation (IAV) of terrestrial carbon cycle offers the opportunity to better understand climate–carbon cycle relationships. However, despite growing research interest, uncertainties remain on some fundamental issues, such as the contributions of different regions, constituent fluxes and climatic factors to carbon cycle IAV. Here we overviewed the literature on carbon cycle IAV about current understanding of these issues. Observations and models of the carbon cycle unanimously show the dominance of tropical land ecosystems to the signal of global carbon cycle IAV, where tropical semiarid ecosystems contribute as much as the combination of all other tropical ecosystems. Vegetation photosynthesis contributes more than ecosystem respiration to IAV of the global net land carbon flux, but large uncertainties remain on the contribution of fires and other disturbance fluxes. Climatic variations are the major drivers to the IAV of net land carbon flux. Although debate remains on whether the dominant driver is temperature or moisture variability, their interaction,that is, the dependence of carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature on moisture conditions, is emerging as key regulators of the carbon cycle IAV. On timescales from the interannual to the centennial, global carbon cycle variability will be increasingly contributed by northern land ecosystems and oceans. Therefore, both improving Earth system models (ESMs) with the progressive understanding on the fast processes manifested at interannual timescale and expanding carbon cycle observations at broader spatial and longer temporal scales are critical to better prediction on evolution of the carbon–climate system.  相似文献   

19.
The possibility of carbon (C) being locked away from the atmosphere for millennia is given in hydromorphic soils. However, the water-table-dependent feedback from soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition to the climate system is less clear. At least three greenhouse gases are produced: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). These gases show emission peaks at different water table positions and have different global warming potentials (GWP), for example a factor of 23 for CH4 and 296 for N2O as compared with the equivalent mass of CO2 on a 100-year time horizon. This review of available annual data on all three gases revealed that the radiative forcing effect of SOM decomposition is principally dictated by CO2 despite its low GWP. Anaerobic SOM decomposition generally has a lower potential feedback to the climatic system than aerobic SOM decomposition. Concrete values are constrained by a lack of data from tropical and subarctic regions. Furthermore, data on N2O and on plant effects are generally rare. However, there is a clear latitudinal differentiation for the GWP of soils under anaerobic conditions compared with aerobic conditions when looking at CO2 and CH4: in the tropical and temperate regions, the anaerobic GWP showed a range of 25–60% of the aerobic value, but values varied between 80% and 110% in the boreal zone. Hence, particularly in the vulnerable boreal zone, the feedback from ecosystems to climate change will highly depend on plant responses to changing water tables at elevated temperatures.  相似文献   

20.
UV-B辐射增强对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
作为全球变化的重要现象之一,紫外射线B(UV-B,波长280~320 nm)辐射增强对陆地生态系统碳循环具有重要影响.UV-B辐射增强主要通过改变植物的光合作用、凋落物分解以及土壤呼吸来影响陆地生态系统碳的输入和转化输出.其他气候因子(大气CO2浓度、温度和水分)可能会促进或减缓UV-B辐射对陆地生态系统碳循环的作用.本文介绍了UV-B辐射增强的背景,综述了国内外近年来UV-B辐射增强及与其他气候因子交互作用对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响,总结了目前研究存在的不足,讨论了未来的研究重点和方向.  相似文献   

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