Refugial persistence and postglacial recolonization of North America by the cold-tolerant herbaceous plant Orthilia secunda

Previous phylogeographical and palaeontological studies on the biota of northern North America have revealed a complex scenario of glacial survival in multiple refugia and differing patterns of postglacial recolonization. Many putative refugial regions have been proposed both north and south of the ice sheets for species during the Last Glacial Maximum, but the locations of many of these refugia remain a topic of great debate. In this study, we used a phylogeographical approach to elucidate the refugial and recolonization history of the herbaceous plant species Orthilia secunda in North America, which is found in disjunct areas in the west and east of the continent, most of which were either glaciated or lay close to the limits of the ice sheets. Analysis of 596 bp of the chloroplast trnS-trnG intergenic spacer and five microsatellite loci in 84 populations spanning the species' range in North America suggests that O. secunda persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in western refugia, even though palaeodistribution modelling indicated a suitable climate envelope across the entire south of the continent. The present distribution of the species has resulted from recolonization from refugia north and south of the ice sheets, most likely in Beringia or coastal regions of Alaska and British Columbia, the Washington/Oregon region in the northwest USA, and possibly from the region associated with the putative 'ice-free corridor' between the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets. Our findings also highlight the importance of the Pacific Northwest as an important centre of intraspecific genetic diversity, owing to a combination of refugial persistence in the area and recolonization from other refugia.     

Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role.     

Strong paleoclimatic legacies in current plant functional diversity patterns across Europe

Numerous studies indicate that environmental changes during the late Quaternary have elicited long‐term disequilibria between species diversity and environment. Despite its importance for ecosystem functioning, the importance of historical environmental conditions as determinants of FD (functional diversity) remains largely unstudied. We quantified the geographic distributions of plant FD (richness and dispersion) across Europe using distribution and functional trait information for 2702 plant species. We then compared the importance of historical and contemporary factors to determine the relevance of past conditions as predictors of current plant FD in Europe. For this, we compared the strength of the relationships between FD with temperature and precipitation stability since the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum), accessibility to LGM refugia, and contemporary environmental conditions (climate, productivity, soil, topography, and land use). Functional richness and dispersion exhibited geographic patterns with strong associations to the environmental history of the region. The effect size of accessibility to LGM refugia and climate stability since the LGM was comparable to that of the contemporary predictors. Both functional richness and dispersion increased with temperature stability since the LGM and accessibility to LGM refugia. Functional richness' geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days, land use heterogeneity, diversity of soil types, and absolute minimum winter temperature. Functional dispersion's geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days and absolute minimum winter temperature. The high explained variance and model support of historical predictors are consistent with the idea that long‐term variability in environmental conditions supplements contemporary factors in shaping FD patterns at continental scales. Given the importance of FD for ecosystem functioning, future climate change may elicit not just short‐term shifts in ecosystem functioning, but also long‐term functional disequilibria.     

In situ survival of forest bryophytes in small‐scale refugia after an intense forest fire

Question: Species can persist in landscapes with recurring disturbances either by migrating to places suitable for the moment or by enduring the threatening conditions. We investigated to what extent boreal forest bryophytes survived an intense forest fire in situ and whether bryophytes had started to recolonize the area 7‐8 years later. Location: Tyresta National Park, eastern Sweden. Methods: We recorded bryophytes in 14 burnt and 12 forest reference plots (50 × 50 m). In each plot we investigated 15 random 1‐m² micro‐plots. In plots in the burnt area we also examined micro‐plots at locations of all fire refugia, and in case of the forest references, of 10 potential refugia. Results: We found on average three small refugia per 50 × 50‐m plot; each containing on average 4.8 forest bryophytes, a level similar to that of micro‐plots in the references, but significantly higher than in random micro‐plots in the burnt plots (1.5 species). Many refugia were located in rocky areas, but few were in wet sites. The burnt area remained dominated by a few fire‐favoured species, even if recolonization of forest bryophytes had begun. There was, however, no significant correlation between number of refugia and number of forest species in random micro‐plots, leaving open the question of the importance of refugia as regulators of early succession. Conclusion: We conclude that small‐scale refugia can also occur for sensitive species such as forest bryophytes, and that the refugia in our case were frequently found on rocky or mesic rather than wet sites. The role of such refugia in recolonization, however, warrants further investigation.     

Population genomic evidence for plant glacial survival in Scandinavia

Quaternary glaciations have played a major role in shaping the genetic diversity and distribution of plant species. Strong palaeoecological and genetic evidence supports a postglacial recolonization of most plant species to northern Europe from southern, eastern and even western glacial refugia. Although highly controversial, the existence of small in situ glacial refugia in northern Europe has recently gained molecular support. We used genomic analyses to examine the phylogeography of a species that is critical in this debate. Carex scirpoidea Michx subsp. scirpoidea is a dioecious, amphi‐Atlantic arctic–alpine sedge that is widely distributed in North America, but absent from most of Eurasia, apart from three extremely disjunct populations in Norway, all well within the limits of the Weichselian ice sheet. Range‐wide population sampling and variation at 5,307 single nucleotide polymorphisms show that the three Norwegian populations comprise unique evolutionary lineages divergent from Greenland with high between‐population divergence. The Norwegian populations have low within‐population genetic diversity consistent with having experienced genetic bottlenecks in glacial refugia, and host private alleles that probably accumulated in long‐term isolated populations. Demographic analyses support a single, pre‐Weichselian colonization into Norway from East Greenland, and subsequent divergence of the three populations in separate refugia. Other refugial areas are identified in North‐east Greenland, Minnesota/Michigan, Colorado and Alaska. Admixed populations in British Columbia and West Greenland indicate postglacial contact. Taken together, evidence from this study strongly indicates in situ glacial survival in Scandinavia.     

Climate response,migrational lag,and pollen representation: The problems posed by Rhododendron and Acer

Views have changed as to the relative importance of climate change and human activity on the composition of Holocene temperate forest. The ‘climate school’ maintains that temperate arboreal taxa responded swiftly to changes in Holocene climate, irrespective of dispersal mechanism, with no evidence for migrational lag or for human influence; taxa moved individualistically according to their climate response. This paper tests these tenets in two case studies. The present‐day distributions of Rhododendron and Acer in Europe are compared with earlier records, and discussed in the context of migrational lag and pollen‐climate response. Distributional data emphasise the importance of humans as a vector in aiding the spread of both Rhododendron ponticum and some Acer species in the very late Holocene. Arguably, the species concerned have exhibited extreme migrational lag; they re‐open the question as to whether the natural distributions of temperate arboreal species are in equilibrium with climate.     

Glacial refugia,recolonization patterns and diversification forces in Alpine‐endemic Megabunus harvestmen

The Pleistocene climatic fluctuations had a huge impact on all life forms, and various hypotheses regarding the survival of organisms during glacial periods have been postulated. In the European Alps, evidence has been found in support of refugia outside the ice shield (massifs de refuge) acting as sources for postglacial recolonization of inner‐Alpine areas. In contrast, evidence for survival on nunataks, ice‐free areas above the glacier, remains scarce. Here, we combine multivariate genetic analyses with ecological niche models (ENMs) through multiple timescales to elucidate the history of Alpine Megabunus harvestmen throughout the ice ages, a genus that comprises eight high‐altitude endemics. ENMs suggest two types of refugia throughout the last glacial maximum, inner‐Alpine survival on nunataks for four species and peripheral refugia for further four species. In some geographic regions, the patterns of genetic variation are consistent with long‐distance dispersal out of massifs de refuge, repeatedly coupled with geographic parthenogenesis. In other regions, long‐term persistence in nunataks may dominate the patterns of genetic divergence. Overall, our results suggest that glacial cycles contributed to allopatric diversification in Alpine Megabunus, both within and at the margins of the ice shield. These findings exemplify the power of ENM projections coupled with genetic analyses to identify hypotheses about the position and the number of glacial refugia and thus to evaluate the role of Pleistocene glaciations in driving species‐specific responses of recolonization or persistence that may have contributed to observed patterns of biodiversity.     

Phylogeography of the white-tailed eagle, a generalist with large dispersal capacity

Aim Late Pleistocene glacial changes had a major impact on many boreal and temperate taxa, and this impact can still be detected in the present‐day phylogeographic structure of these taxa. However, only minor effects are expected in species with generalist habitat requirements and high dispersal capability. One such species is the white‐tailed eagle, Haliaeetus albicilla, and we therefore tested for the expected weak population structure at a continental level in this species. This also allowed us to describe phylogeographic patterns, and to deduce Ice Age refugia and patterns of postglacial recolonization of Eurasia. Location Breeding populations from the easternmost Nearctic (Greenland) and across the Palaearctic (Iceland, continental Europe, central and eastern Asia, and Japan). Methods Sequencing of a 500 base‐pair fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region in 237 samples from throughout the distribution range. Results Our analysis revealed pronounced phylogeographic structure. Overall, low genetic variability was observed across the entire range. Haplotypes clustered in two distinct haplogroups with a predominantly eastern or western distribution, and extensive overlap in Europe. These two major lineages diverged during the late Pleistocene. The eastern haplogroup showed a pattern of rapid population expansion and colonization of Eurasia around the end of the Pleistocene. The western haplogroup had lower diversity and was absent from the populations in eastern Asia. These results suggest survival during the last glaciation in two refugia, probably located in central and western Eurasia, followed by postglacial population expansion and admixture. Relatively high genetic diversity was observed in northern regions that were ice‐covered during the last glacial maximum. This, and phylogenetic relationships between haplotypes encountered in the north, indicates substantial population expansion at high latitudes. Areas of glacial meltwater runoff and proglacial lakes could have provided suitable habitats for such population growth. Main conclusions This study shows that glacial climate fluctuations had a substantial impact on white‐tailed eagles, both in terms of distribution and demography. These results suggest that even species with large dispersal capabilities and relatively broad habitat requirements were strongly affected by the Pleistocene climatic shifts.     

Distribution and population structure of the anther smut Microbotryum silenes‐acaulis parasitizing an arctic–alpine plant

Cold‐adapted organisms with current arctic–alpine distributions have persisted during the last glaciation in multiple ice‐free refugia, leaving footprints in their population structure that contrast with temperate plants and animals. However, pathogens that live within hosts having arctic–alpine distributions have been little studied. Here, we therefore investigated the geographical range and population structure of a fungus parasitizing an arctic–alpine plant. A total of 1437 herbarium specimens of the plant Silene acaulis were examined, and the anther smut pathogen Microbotryum silenes‐acaulis was present throughout the host's geographical range. There was significantly greater incidence of anther smut disease in more northern latitudes and where the host locations were less dense, indicating a major influence of environmental factors and/or host demographic structure on the pathogen distribution. Genetic analyses with seven microsatellite markers on recent collections of 195 M. silenes‐acaulis individuals revealed three main genetic clusters, in North America, northern Europe and southern Europe, likely corresponding to differentiation in distinct refugia during the last glaciation. The lower genetic diversity in northern Europe indicates postglacial recolonization northwards from southern refugia. This study combining herbarium surveys and population genetics thus uniquely reveals the effects of climate and environmental factors on a plant pathogen species with an arctic–alpine distribution.     

Quaternary refugia are associated with higher speciation rates in mammalian faunas of the Western Palaearctic

Quaternary climate changes have contributed to shape the biogeographic distribution of extant species. The combination of climatic niche conservatism and glacial‐interglacial cycles forced many species to retract their range limits for surviving under the advance of Pleistocene ice‐sheets. Refugia offered geographical opportunities for species to retreat, persist and, later on, begin recolonization processes under favourable environmental conditions. Here we explore the hypothesis that refugia have been not only crucial for the survival of multiple species but also acted as speciation centres for Western Palaearctic mammals. We define ‘recurrent massive refugia’ as those geographical regions that have historically accumulated the highest levels of co‐occurring species for several Quaternary cycles. Our assemblage‐level analyses identify the existence of refugia within the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic French margin that were recurrently selected by most mammals. The topographic heterogeneity, climatic stability and microhabitat availability of these refugial areas may have offered suitable habitat conditions for multiple species during different climatic events over time. Using a Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures we detected that the higher level of divergence and accumulative evolutionary changes in mammals of the Western Palaearctic are found in refugia. The continuous retractions and expansions of species’ ranges during the Pleistocene promoted temporal changes in the composition and richness of communities in this biogeographic region. The reorganization of ecological composition driven by cyclical climatic events may have favoured the emergence of biotic interactions and ecological responses conducive to novel selective pressures. Our findings suggest, first, that multiple climatic changes in the form of glacial‐interglacial transitions during the Quaternary have left a detectable imprint on the observed geographical patterns of species richness in mammalian faunas of the Western Palaearctic, and second, highlight the importance of refugia for the preservation of species (‘museums’) and as centers of speciation and endemism (‘cradles’) as well.     

Palaeoclimatic models help to understand current distribution of Caucasian forest species

Spatial and temporal constraints on dispersal explain the absence of species from areas with potentially suitable conditions. Previous studies have shown that post‐glacial recolonization has shaped the current ranges of many species, yet it is not completely clear to what extent interspecific differences in range size depend on different dispersal rates. The inferred boundaries of glacial refugia are difficult to validate, and may bias spatial distribution models (SDMs) that consider post‐glacial dispersal constraints. We predicted the current distribution of 12 Caucasian forest plants and animals, factoring in the effective geographical distance from inferred glacial refugia as an additional predictor. To infer glacial refugia, we tested the transferability of the current SDMs based on the distribution of climatic variables, and projected the most transferable ones onto two climate scenarios simulated for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We then calculated least‐cost distances from the inferred refugia, using elevation as a friction surface, and recalculated the current SDMs incorporating the distances as an additional variable. We compared the predictive powers of the initial with the final SDMs. The palaeoclimatic simulation that best matched the distribution of species was assumed to represent the closest fit to the true palaeoclimate. SDMs incorporating refugial distance performed significantly better for all but one studied species, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) climatic simulation provided a more convincing pattern of the LGM climate than the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulation. Our results suggest that the projection of suitable habitat models onto past climatic conditions may yield realistic boundaries of glacial refugia, and that the current distribution of forest species in the study region is strongly associated with locations of former refugia. We inferred six major forest refugia throughout western Asia: (1) Colchis; (2) western Anatolia; (3) western Taurus; (4) the upper reaches of the Tigris River; (5) the Levant; and (6) the southern Caspian basin. The boundaries of the modelled refugia were substantially broader than the refugia boundaries inferred solely from pollen records. Thus, our method could be used to: (1) improve models of current species distributions by considering the dispersal histories of the species; and (2) validate alternative reconstructions of palaeoclimate with current distribution data. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 231–248.     

Postglacial recolonization in a cold climate specialist in western Europe: patterns of genetic diversity in the adder (Vipera berus) support the central–marginal hypothesis

Understanding the impact of postglacial recolonization on genetic diversity is essential in explaining current patterns of genetic variation. The central–marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts a reduction in genetic diversity from the core of the distribution to peripheral populations, as well as reduced connectivity between peripheral populations. While the CMH has received considerable empirical support, its broad applicability is still debated and alternative hypotheses predict different spatial patterns of genetic diversity. Using microsatellite markers, we analysed the genetic diversity of the adder (Vipera berus) in western Europe to reconstruct postglacial recolonization. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analyses suggested a postglacial recolonization from two routes: a western route from the Atlantic Coast up to Belgium and a central route from the Massif Central to the Alps. This cold‐adapted species likely used two isolated glacial refugia in southern France, in permafrost‐free areas during the last glacial maximum. Adder populations further from putative glacial refugia had lower genetic diversity and reduced connectivity; therefore, our results support the predictions of the CMH. Our study also illustrates the utility of highly variable nuclear markers, such as microsatellites, and ABC to test competing recolonization hypotheses.     

Glacial refugia and postglacial expansion of the alpine–prealpine plant species Polygala chamaebuxus

The shrubby milkwort (Polygala chamaebuxus L.) is widely distributed in the Alps, but occurs also in the lower mountain ranges of Central Europe such as the Franconian Jura or the Bohemian uplands. Populations in these regions may either originate from glacial survival or from postglacial recolonization. In this study, we analyzed 30 populations of P. chamaebuxus from the whole distribution range using AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) analysis to identify glacial refugia and to illuminate the origin of P. chamaebuxus in the lower mountain ranges of Central Europe. Genetic variation and the number of rare fragments within populations were highest in populations from the central part of the distribution range, especially in the Southern Alps (from the Tessin Alps and the Prealps of Lugano to the Triglav Massiv) and in the middle part of the northern Alps. These regions may have served, in accordance with previous studies, as long‐term refugia for the glacial survival of the species. The geographic pattern of genetic variation, as revealed by analysis of molecular variance, Bayesian cluster analysis and a PopGraph genetic network was, however, only weak. Instead of postglacial recolonization from only few long‐term refugia, which would have resulted in deeper genetic splits within the data set, broad waves of postglacial expansion from several short‐term isolated populations in the center to the actual periphery of the distribution range seem to be the scenario explaining the observed pattern of genetic variation most likely. The populations from the lower mountain ranges in Central Europe were more closely related to the populations from the southwestern and northern than from the nearby eastern Alps. Although glacial survival in the Bohemian uplands cannot fully be excluded, P. chamaebuxus seems to have immigrated postglacially from the southwestern or central‐northern parts of the Alps into these regions during the expansion of the pine forests in the early Holocene.     

Rethinking long‐term vegetation dynamics: multiple glacial refugia and local expansion of a species complex

Evidence is accumulating that some arcto‐boreal plant taxa persisted through the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Alaska and adjacent Canada. However, the spatial patterns of glacial persistence and associated postglacial colonization remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the LGM refugia of an alder (Alnus) species complex (n = 3 taxa) and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of Alnus in this vast region. Specifically, we conducted high‐throughput DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on Alnus foliar samples collected from a dense population network to investigate patterns of genetic structure and infer the presence of glacial lineages. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the probability and possible locations of glacial persistence. These analyses were integrated and then compared with fossil pollen data to identify the locations of refugial populations and spatial patterns of postglacial colonization. Our genetic analyses revealed two glacial lineages with separate geographic origins for each Alnus taxon, suggesting that the genus persisted in multiple LGM refugia. Non‐overlapping hindcast distributions based on SDMs further support the presence of multiple, spatially distinct refugia. These ddRADseq and SDM results, in conjunction with reassessment of fossil pollen records, suggest that Alnus expanded from several population nuclei that existed during the LGM and coalesced during the Holocene to form its present range. These results challenge the unidirectional model for postglacial vegetation expansion, implying that climate buffering associated with landscape heterogeneity and adaptation to millennial‐scale environmental variability played important roles in driving late‐Quaternary population dynamics.     

A global analysis of plant recovery performance from water stress

Plant post‐drought recovery performance is essential to predict shifts in ecosystem dynamics and production during frequent climate change‐driven drought events. Yet, it is not clear how post‐drought recovery is related to evolutionary and geographic variations in plants. In this study, we generated a global data set of post‐drought recovery performance in 140 plant species from published studies. We quantified the plant post‐drought recovery performance by calculating a recovery index for multiple plant physiological and hydraulic parameters, including leaf water potential, net photosynthetic rate, leaf hydraulic conductance and shoot biomass. The magnitude of recovery among four plant functional types (deciduous angiosperms, evergreen angiosperms, gymnosperms, and crops), two plant growth forms (shrubs and trees), two water management strategies (isohydric and anisohydric), four xylem porosity types (diffuse, ring, semi‐ring and tracheid), and four major biomes (dry sclerophyll forest, boreal forest, temperate forest and tropical/subtropical forest) were compared. We found the inability to completely recover immediately after severe water stress is ubiquitous across all plant functional types and growth forms, while the rate and magnitude of post‐drought recovery varied greatly across different plant taxonomic categories and geographic ranges. In general, plant hydraulic architecture, leaf anatomy and physiology affect plants’ propensity towards recovery, and reflect evolutionary consequences of plant adaptation to their habitat. Due to the essential role of plant functional traits in regulating carbon storage in each biome, a better understanding plant post‐drought recovery performance could improve our predictions on ecosystem productivity in a rapidly changing climate.     

Has past climate change affected cold‐specialized species differentially through space and time?

Quaternary climate change has been strongly linked to distributional shifts and recent species diversification. Montane species, in particular, have experienced enhanced isolation and rapid genetic divergence during glacial fluctuations, and these processes have resulted in a disproportionate number of neo‐endemic species forming in high‐elevation habitats. In temperate montane environments, a general model of alpine population history is well supported, where cold‐specialized species track favourable climate conditions downslope during glacial episodes and upslope during warmer interglacial periods, which leads to a climate‐driven population or species diversification pump. However, it remains unclear how geography mediates distributional changes and whether certain episodes of glacial history have differentially impacted rates of diversification. We address these questions by examining phylogenomic data in a North American clade of flightless, cold‐specialized insects, the ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae: Grylloblatta). These low‐vagility organisms have the potential to reveal highly localized refugia and patterns of spatial recolonization, as well as a longer history of in situ diversification. Using continuous phylogeographic analysis of species groups, we show that all species tend to retreat to nearby low‐elevation habitats across western North America during episodes of glaciation, but species at high latitude exhibit larger distributional shifts. Lineage diversification was examined over the course of the Neogene and Quaternary periods, with statistical analysis supporting a direct association between climate variation and diversification rate. Major increases in lineage diversification appear to be correlated with warm and dry periods, rather than with extreme glacial events. Finally, we identify substantial cryptic diversity among ice crawlers, leading to high endemism across their range. This diversity provides new insights into highly localized glacial refugia for cold‐specialized species across western North America.     

Resilient forest faunal communities in South Africa: a legacy of palaeoclimatic change and extinction filtering?

Aim To examine the influence of climatic extinction filtering during the last glacial maximum (LGM; c. 18,000 yr bp ) and of the subsequent recolonization of forest faunas on contemporary assemblage composition in southern African forests. Location South Africa, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zimbabwe. Methods Data comprised presence/absence by quarter‐degree grid cell for forest‐dependent and forest‐associated birds, non‐volant mammals and frogs. Twenty‐one forest subregions were assigned to one of three previously identified forest types: Afrotemperate, scarp, and Indian Ocean coastal belt. Differences among forest types were examined through patterns and gradients of species richness and endemism, assemblage similarity, species turnover, and coefficients of species dispersal direction. The influence of contemporary environment on assemblage composition was investigated using partial canonical correspondence analysis. Several alternative biogeographical hypotheses for the recolonization of forest faunas were tested. Results Afrotemperate faunas are relatively species‐poor, have low species turnover, and are unsaturated and infiltrated by generalist species. In northern and central regions, communities are supplemented by recolonization from scarp forest refugia, and among frogs by autochthanous speciation in localized refugia. Scarp faunas are relatively species‐rich, contain many forest‐dependent species, have high species turnover, and overlap with coastal and Afrotemperate faunas. Coastal forests are relatively species‐rich with high species turnover. Main conclusions Afrotemperate communities were affected most by climatic extinction filtering events. Scarp forests were Afrotemperate refugia during the LGM and are a contemporary overlap zone between Afrotemperate and coastal forest. Coastal faunas derive from post‐LGM colonization along the eastern seaboard from tropical East African refugia. The greatest diversity is achieved in scarp and coastal forest faunas in northern KwaZulu–Natal province. This historical centre of diversity has influenced the faunal diversity of nearly all other forests in South Africa. The response of vertebrate taxa to large‐scale, historical processes is dependent on their relative mobility: forest birds best illustrate patterns resulting from post‐glacial faunal dispersal, while among mammals and frogs the legacy of climatic extinction filtering remains stronger.     

Palaeodistribution modelling does not support disjunct Pleistocene refugia in several Central American plant taxa

Aim We combine evidence from palaeoniche modelling studies of several tree species to estimate the extent of Central American forest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In particular, we ask whether the distributions of these species are likely to have changed since the LGM, and whether LGM distributions coincide with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia in this area. Location Central American wet and seasonally dry forests. Methods We developed ecological niche models using two simulations of Pleistocene climate and occurrence data for 15 Neotropical plant species. We focused on palaeodistribution models of three ‘focal’ tree species that occur in wet and seasonally dry Central American forests, where recent phylogeographic data suggest Pleistocene differentiation coincident with previously proposed refugia. We added predictions from six wet‐forest and six seasonally dry‐forest obligate plant species to gauge whether Pleistocene range shifts were specific to habitat type. Correlation analyses were performed between projected LGM and present distributions, LGM distributions and previously proposed refugia. We also asked whether modelled palaeodistributions were smaller than their current extents. Results According to our models, the ranges of the study species were not reduced during the LGM, and did not correlate with refugial models, regardless of habitat type. Relative range sizes between present and LGM distributions did not indicate significant range changes since the LGM. However, relative range sizes differed overall between the two palaeoclimate models. Main conclusions Many of the modelled palaeodistributions of study species were not restricted to refugia during the LGM, regardless of forest type. While constrained from higher elevations, most species found suitable habitat at coastal margins and on newly exposed land due to lowered sea levels during the LGM. These results offer no corroboration for Pleistocene climate change as a driver of genetic differentiation in the ‘focal’ species. We offer alternative explanations for genetic differentiation found in plant species in this area.     

Phylogenetic assemblage structure of North American trees is more strongly shaped by glacial–interglacial climate variability in gymnosperms than in angiosperms

How fast does biodiversity respond to climate change? The relationship of past and current climate with phylogenetic assemblage structure helps us to understand this question. Studies of angiosperm tree diversity in North America have already suggested effects of current water–energy balance and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial–interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic endemism, the concentration of unique lineages in restricted ranges, may also be related to glacial–interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100‐km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility to recolonization to quantify glacial–interglacial climate variability. We found: (1) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages toward lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. (2) Long‐term climate stability is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. (3) Factors linked to glacial–interglacial climate change have stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest that paleoclimate legacies supplement current climate in shaping phylogenetic patterns in North American trees, and especially so for gymnosperms.     

Northern glacial refugia for the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in Europe revealed by phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling

The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are traditionally recognized as glacial refugia from where many species colonized central and northern Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, evidence that some species had more northerly refugia is accumulating from phylogeographic, palaeontological and palynological studies, and more recently from species distribution modelling (SDM), but further studies are needed to test the idea of northern refugia in Europe. Here, we take a rarely implemented multidisciplinary approach to assess if the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus, a widespread Eurasian mammal species, had northern refugia during the LGM, and if these influenced its postglacial geographic distribution. First, we evaluated the phylogeographic and population expansion patterns using mtDNA sequence data from 123 pygmy shrews. Then, we used SDM to predict present and past (LGM) potential distributions using two different training data sets, two different algorithms (Maxent and GARP) and climate reconstructions for the LGM with two different general circulation models. An LGM distribution in the southern peninsulas was predicted by the SDM approaches, in line with the occurrence of lineages of S. minutus in these areas. The phylogeographic analyses also indicated a widespread and strictly northern‐central European lineage, not derived from southern peninsulas, and with a postglacial population expansion signature. This was consistent with the SDM predictions of suitable LGM conditions for S. minutus occurring across central and eastern Europe, from unglaciated parts of the British Isles to much of the eastern European Plain. Hence, S. minutus likely persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe during the LGM, from where it colonized other northern areas during the late‐glacial and postglacial periods. Our results provide new insights into the glacial and postglacial colonization history of the European mammal fauna, notably supporting glacial refugia further north than traditionally recognized.