Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivium) varieties?

Extreme climate, especially temperature, can severely reduce wheat yield. As global warming has already begun to increase mean temperature and the occurrence of extreme temperatures, it has become urgent to accelerate the 5–20 year process of breeding for new wheat varieties, to adapt to future climate. We analyzed the patterns of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt based on 50 years of historical records (1960–2009) for 2864 weather stations. Flowering dates of three contrasting‐maturity wheat varieties were simulated for a wide range of sowing dates in 22 locations for ‘current’ climate (1960–2009) and eight future scenarios (high and low CO₂ emission, dry and wet precipitation scenarios, in 2030 and 2050). The results highlighted the substantial spatial variability of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt in current and future climates. As both ‘last frost’ and ‘first heat’ events would occur earlier in the season, the ‘target’ sowing and flowering windows (defined as risk less than 10% for frost (<0 °C) and less than 30% for heat (>35 °C) around flowering) would be shifted earlier by up to 2 and 1 month(s), respectively, in 2050. A short‐season variety would require a shift in target sowing window 2‐fold greater than long‐ and medium‐season varieties by 2050 (8 vs. 4 days on average across locations and scenarios, respectively), but would suffer a lesser decrease in the length of the vegetative period (4 vs. 7 days). Overall, warmer winters would shorten the wheat season by up to 6 weeks, especially during preflowering. This faster crop cycle is associated with a reduced time for resource acquisition, and potential yield loss. As far as favourable rain and modern equipment would allow, early sowing and longer season varieties (i.e. in current climate) would be the best strategies to adapt to future climates.     

A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050

Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature‐supported, up‐to‐date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper‐end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all ‘unused’ grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40–110 EJ yr^?1. Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long‐term total biomass availability is 60–120 EJ yr^?1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10–20 EJ yr^?1 of biofuel, 20–40 EJ yr^?1 of electricity, and 10–30 EJ yr^?1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.     

Comparing annual and perennial crops for bioenergy production – influence on nitrate leaching and energy balance

Production of energy crops is promoted as a means to mitigate global warming by decreasing dependency on fossil energy. However, agricultural production of bioenergy can have various environmental effects depending on the crop and production system. In a field trial initiated in 2008, nitrate concentration in soil water was measured below winter wheat, grass‐clover and willow during three growing seasons. Crop water balances were modelled to estimate the amount of nitrate leached per hectare. In addition, dry matter yields and nitrogen (N) yields were measured, and N balances and energy balances were calculated. In willow, nitrate concentrations were up to approximately 20 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N during the establishment year, but declined subsequently to <5 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N, resulting in an annual N leaching loss of 18, 3 and 0.3 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N in the first 3 years after planting. A similar trend was observed in grass‐clover where concentrations stabilized at 2–4 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N from the beginning of the second growing season, corresponding to leaching of approximately 5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N. In winter wheat, an annual N leaching loss of 36–68 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 was observed. For comparison, nitrate leaching was also measured in an old willow crop established in 1996 from which N leaching ranged from 6 to 27 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. Dry matter yields ranged between 5.9 and 14.8 Mg yr^?1 with lowest yield in the newly established willow and the highest yield harvested in grass‐clover. Grass‐clover gave the highest net energy yield of 244 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1, whereas old willow, winter wheat and first rotation willow gave net energy yields of 235, 180 and 105 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1. The study showed that perennial crops can provide high energy yields and significantly reduce N losses compared to annual crops.     

Change in terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency over the last three decades

Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), ecosystem‐scale water‐use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data‐driven models derived from satellite observations and process‐oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1 under the single effect of rising CO₂ (‘CO₂’), climate change (‘CLIM’) and nitrogen deposition (‘NDEP’), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE‐CO₂ shows global increases, (ii) EWUE‐CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE‐NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data‐driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (?0.0005 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1), which differs from process‐model (0.0064 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO₂ reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration (TR) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data‐driven model and the process‐oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water‐use efficiency defined from transpiration‐based WUE_t (GPP/TR) and inherent water‐use efficiency (IWUE_t, GPP×VPD/TR) in response to rising CO₂, climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon–water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.     

Comparing predicted yield and yield stability of willow and Miscanthus across Denmark

To achieve the goals of energy security and climate change mitigation in Denmark and the EU, an expansion of national production of bioenergy crops is needed. Temporal and spatial variation of yields of willow and Miscanthus is not known for Denmark because of a limited number of field trial data. The semi‐mechanistic crop model BioCro was used to simulate the production of both short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus across Denmark. Predictions were made from high spatial resolution soil data and weather records across this area for 1990–2010. The potential average, rain‐fed mean yield was 12.1 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1 for willow and 10.2 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1 for Miscanthus. Coefficient of variation as a measure for yield stability was poorest on the sandy soils of northern and western Jutland, and the year‐to‐year variation in yield was greatest on these soils. Willow was predicted to outyield Miscanthus on poor, sandy soils, whereas Miscanthus was higher yielding on clay‐rich soils. The major driver of yield in both crops was variation in soil moisture, with radiation and precipitation exerting less influence. This is the first time these two major feedstocks for northern Europe have been compared within a single modeling framework and providing an important new tool for decision‐making in selection of feedstocks for emerging bioenergy systems.     

Implications of productivity and nutrient requirements on greenhouse gas balance of annual and perennial bioenergy crops

Biomass from dedicated crops is expected to contribute significantly to the replacement of fossil resources. However, sustainable bioenergy cropping systems must provide high biomass production and low environmental impacts. This study aimed at quantifying biomass production, nutrient removal, expected ethanol production, and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of six bioenergy crops: Miscanthus × giganteus, switchgrass, fescue, alfalfa, triticale, and fiber sorghum. Biomass production and N, P, K balances (input‐output) were measured during 4 years in a long‐term experiment, which included two nitrogen fertilization treatments. These results were used to calculate a posteriori ‘optimized’ fertilization practices, which would ensure a sustainable production with a nil balance of nutrients. A modified version of the cost/benefit approach proposed by Crutzen et al. (2008), comparing the GHG emissions resulting from N‐P‐K fertilization of bioenergy crops and the GHG emissions saved by replacing fossil fuel, was applied to these ‘optimized’ situations. Biomass production varied among crops between 10.0 (fescue) and 26.9 t DM ha^?1 yr^?1 (miscanthus harvested early) and the expected ethanol production between 1.3 (alfalfa) and 6.1 t ha^?1 yr^?1 (miscanthus harvested early). The cost/benefit ratio ranged from 0.10 (miscanthus harvested late) to 0.71 (fescue); it was closely correlated with the N/C ratio of the harvested biomass, except for alfalfa. The amount of saved CO₂ emissions varied from 1.0 (fescue) to 8.6 t CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1 (miscanthus harvested early or late). Due to its high biomass production, miscanthus was able to combine a high production of ethanol and a large saving of CO₂ emissions. Miscanthus and switchgrass harvested late gave the best compromise between low N‐P‐K requirements, high GHG saving per unit of biomass, and high productivity per hectare.     

Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation

Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea (‘Chukchi’) and Eastern Beaufort Sea (‘Beaufort’) beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze‐up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between ‘early’ (1993–2002) and ‘late’ (2004–2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze‐up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze‐up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr^?1) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how belugas may fare in the future.     

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

Biomass production on low‐grade land is needed to meet future energy demands and minimize resource conflicts. This, however, requires improvements in plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) that are beyond conventional C3 and C4 dedicated bioenergy crops. Here we present the first global‐scale geographic information system (GIS)‐based productivity model of two highly water‐efficient crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) candidates: Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficus‐indica. Features of these plants that translate to WUE advantages over C3 and C4 bioenergy crops include nocturnal stomatal opening, rapid rectifier‐like root hydraulic conductivity responses to fluctuating soil water potential and the capacity to buffer against periods of drought. Yield simulations for the year 2070 were performed under the four representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. Simulations on low‐grade land suggest that O. ficus‐indica alone has the capacity to meet ‘extreme’ bioenergy demand scenarios (>600 EJ yr^?1) and is highly resilient to climate change (?1%). Agave tequilana is moderately impacted (?11%). These results are significant because bioenergy demand scenarios >600 EJ yr^?1 could be met without significantly increasing conflicts with food production and contributing to deforestation. Both CAM candidates outperformed the C4 bioenergy crop, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) in arid zones in the latitudinal range 30°S–30°N.     

Poplar and shrub willow energy crops in the United States: field trial results from the multiyear regional feedstock partnership and yield potential maps based on the PRISM‐ELM model

To increase the understanding of poplar and willow perennial woody crops and facilitate their deployment for the production of biofuels, bioproducts, and bioenergy, there is a need for broadscale yield maps. For national analysis of woody and herbaceous crops production potential, biomass feedstock yield maps should be developed using a common framework. This study developed willow and poplar potential yield maps by combining data from a network of willow and poplar field trials and the modeling power of PRISM‐ELM. Yields of the top three willow cultivars across 17 sites ranged from 3.60 to 14.6 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 dry weight, while the yields from 17 poplar trials ranged from 7.5 to 15.2 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Relationships between the environmental suitability estimates from the PRISM‐ELM model and results from field trials had an R² of 0.60 for poplar and 0.81 for willow. The resulting potential yield maps reflected the range of poplar and willow yields that have been reported in the literature. Poplar covered a larger geographic range than willow, which likely reflects the poplar breeding efforts that have occurred for many more decades using genotypes from a broader range of environments than willow. While the field trial data sets used to develop these models represent the most complete information at the time, there is a need to expand and improve the model by monitoring trials over multiple cutting cycles and across a broader range of environmental gradients. Despite some limitations, the results of these models represent a dramatic improvement in projections of potential yield of poplar and willow crops across the United States.     

Spatial evaluation of switchgrass productivity under historical and future climate scenarios in Michigan

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) productivity on marginal and fertile lands has not been thoroughly evaluated in a systematic manner that includes soil–crop–weather–management interactions and to quantify the risk of failure or success in growing the crop. We used the Systems Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) model to identify areas with low risk of failing to having more than 8000 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 switchgrass aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) under rainfed and unfertilized conditions. In addition, we diagnosed constraining factors for switchgrass growth, and tested the effect of nitrogen fertilizer application on plant productivity across Michigan for 30 years under three climate scenarios (baseline climate in 1981–2010, future climate with emissions using RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0). We determined that <16% of land in Michigan may have at least 8 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 ANPP under rainfed and unfertilized management with a low risk of failure. Of the productive low‐risk land, about 25% was marginal land, with more than 80% of which was affected by limited water availability due to low soil water‐holding capacity and shallow depth. About 80% of the marginal land was N limited under baseline conditions, but that percentage decreased to 58.5% and 42.1% under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 climate scenarios, respectively, partly due to shorter growing season, smaller plants and less N demand. We also found that the majority of Michigan's land could have high switchgrass ANPP and low risk of failure with no more than 60 kgN ha^?1 fertilizer input. We believe that the methodology used in this study works at different spatial scales, as well as for other biofuel crops.     

Targeted subfield switchgrass integration could improve the farm economy,water quality,and bioenergy feedstock production

Progress on reducing nutrient loss from annual croplands has been hampered by perceived conflicts between short‐term profitability and long‐term stewardship, but these may be overcome through strategic integration of perennial crops. Perennial biomass crops like switchgrass can mitigate nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) leaching, address bioenergy feedstock targets, and – as a lower‐cost management alternative to annual crops (i.e., corn, soybeans) – may also improve farm profitability. We analyzed publicly available environmental, agronomic, and economic data with two integrated models: a subfield agroecosystem management model, Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF), and a process‐based biogeochemical model, DeNitrification‐DeComposition (DNDC). We constructed a factorial combination of profitability and NO₃‐N leaching thresholds and simulated targeted switchgrass integration into corn/soybean cropland in the agricultural state of Iowa, USA. For each combination, we modeled (i) area converted to switchgrass, (ii) switchgrass biomass production, and (iii) NO₃‐N leaching reduction. We spatially analyzed two scenarios: converting to switchgrass corn/soybean cropland losing >US$ 100 ha^?1 and leaching >50 kg ha^?1 (‘conservative’ scenario) or losing >US$ 0 ha^?1 and leaching >20 kg ha^?1 (‘nutrient reduction’ scenario). Compared to baseline, the ‘conservative’ scenario resulted in 12% of cropland converted to switchgrass, which produced 11 million Mg of biomass and reduced leached NO₃‐N 18% statewide. The ‘nutrient reduction’ scenario converted 37% of cropland to switchgrass, producing 34 million Mg biomass and reducing leached NO₃‐N 38% statewide. The opportunity to meet joint goals was greatest within watersheds with undulating topography and lower corn/soybean productivity. Our approach bridges the scales at which NO₃‐N loss and profitability are usually considered, and is informed by both mechanistic and empirical understanding. Though approximated, our analysis supports development of farm‐level tools that can identify locations where both farm profitability and water quality improvement can be achieved through the strategic integration of perennial vegetation.     

CO2 emissions from land‐use change affected more by nitrogen cycle,than by the choice of land‐cover data

The high uncertainty in land‐based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land‐use and land‐use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr^?1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr^?1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr^?1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr^?1 in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr^?1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr^?1 globally (mean across land‐cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land‐cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr^?1). While land‐cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.     

Seventy years of continuous encroachment substantially increases ‘blue carbon’ capacity as mangroves replace intertidal salt marshes

Shifts in ecosystem structure have been observed over recent decades as woody plants encroach upon grasslands and wetlands globally. The migration of mangrove forests into salt marsh ecosystems is one such shift which could have important implications for global ‘blue carbon’ stocks. To date, attempts to quantify changes in ecosystem function are essentially constrained to climate‐mediated pulses (30 years or less) of encroachment occurring at the thermal limits of mangroves. In this study, we track the continuous, lateral encroachment of mangroves into two south‐eastern Australian salt marshes over a period of 70 years and quantify corresponding changes in biomass and belowground C stores. Substantial increases in biomass and belowground C stores have resulted as mangroves replaced salt marsh at both marine and estuarine sites. After 30 years, aboveground biomass was significantly higher than salt marsh, with biomass continuing to increase with mangrove age. Biomass increased at the mesohaline river site by 130 ± 18 Mg biomass km^?2 yr^?1 (mean ± SE), a 2.5 times higher rate than the marine embayment site (52 ± 10 Mg biomass km^?2 yr^?1), suggesting local constraints on biomass production. At both sites, and across all vegetation categories, belowground C considerably outweighed aboveground biomass stocks, with belowground C stocks increasing at up to 230 ± 62 Mg C km^?2 yr^?1 (± SE) as mangrove forests developed. Over the past 70 years, we estimate mangrove encroachment may have already enhanced intertidal biomass by up to 283 097 Mg and belowground C stocks by over 500 000 Mg in the state of New South Wales alone. Under changing climatic conditions and rising sea levels, global blue carbon storage may be enhanced as mangrove encroachment becomes more widespread, thereby countering global warming.     

High night temperatures during grain number determination reduce wheat and barley grain yield: a field study

Warm nights are a widespread predicted feature of climate change. This study investigated the impact of high night temperatures during the critical period for grain yield determination in wheat and barley crops under field conditions, assessing the effects on development, growth and partitioning crop‐level processes driving grain number per unit area (GN). Experiments combined: (i) two contrasting radiation and temperature environments: late sowing in 2011 and early sowing in 2013, (ii) two well‐adapted crops with similar phenology: bread wheat and two‐row malting barley and (iii) two temperature regimes: ambient and high night temperatures. The night temperature increase (ca. 3.9 °C in both crops and growing seasons) was achieved using purpose‐built heating chambers placed on the crop at 19:000 hours and removed at 7:00 hours every day from the third detectable stem node to 10 days post‐flowering. Across growing seasons and crops, the average minimum temperature during the critical period ranged from 11.2 to 17.2 °C. Wheat and barley grain yield were similarly reduced under warm nights (ca. 7% °C^?1), due to GN reductions (ca. 6% °C^?1) linked to a lower number of spikes per m². An accelerated development under high night temperatures led to a shorter critical period duration, reducing solar radiation capture with negative consequences for biomass production, GN and therefore, grain yield. The information generated could be used as a starting point to design management and/or breeding strategies to improve crop adaptation facing climate change.     

Miscanthus biomass productivity within US croplands and its potential impact on soil organic carbon

Interest in bioenergy crops is increasing due to their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. We combined process‐based and geospatial models to estimate the potential biomass productivity of miscanthus and its potential impact on soil carbon stocks in the croplands of the continental United States. The optimum (climatic potential) rainfed productivity for field‐dried miscanthus biomass ranged from 1 to 23 Mg biomass ha^?1 yr^?1, with a spatial average of 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 and a coefficient of variation of 30%. This variation resulted primarily from the spatial heterogeneity of effective rainfall, growing degree days, temperature, and solar radiation interception. Cultivating miscanthus would result in a soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at the rate of 0.16–0.82 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across the croplands due to cessation of tillage and increased biomass carbon input into the soil system. We identified about 81 million ha of cropland, primarily in the eastern United States, that could sustain economically viable (>10 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) production without supplemental irrigation, of which about 14 million ha would reach optimal miscanthus growth. To meet targets of the US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 using miscanthus as feedstock, 19 million ha of cropland would be needed (spatial average 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) or about 16% less than is currently dedicated to US corn‐based ethanol production.     

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

The break‐up of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered cropland abandonment on a continental scale, which in turn led to carbon accumulation on abandoned land across Eurasia. Previous studies have estimated carbon accumulation rates across Russia based on large‐scale modelling. Studies that assess carbon sequestration on abandoned land based on robust field sampling are rare. We investigated soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a randomized sampling design along a climatic gradient from forest steppe to Sub‐Taiga in Western Siberia (Tyumen Province). In total, SOC contents were sampled on 470 plots across different soil and land‐use types. The effect of land use on changes in SOC stock was evaluated, and carbon sequestration rates were calculated for different age stages of abandoned cropland. While land‐use type had an effect on carbon accumulation in the topsoil (0–5 cm), no independent land‐use effects were found for deeper SOC stocks. Topsoil carbon stocks of grasslands and forests were significantly higher than those of soils managed for crops and under abandoned cropland. SOC increased significantly with time since abandonment. The average carbon sequestration rate for soils of abandoned cropland was 0.66 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 (1–20 years old, 0–5 cm soil depth), which is at the lower end of published estimates for Russia and Siberia. There was a tendency towards SOC saturation on abandoned land as sequestration rates were much higher for recently abandoned (1–10 years old, 1.04 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) compared to earlier abandoned crop fields (11–20 years old, 0.26 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1). Our study confirms the global significance of abandoned cropland in Russia for carbon sequestration. Our findings also suggest that robust regional surveys based on a large number of samples advance model‐based continent‐wide SOC prediction.     

Simulating switchgrass biomass production across ecoregions using the DAYCENT model

The production potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has not been estimated in a Mediterranean climate on a regional basis and its economic and environmental contribution as a biofuel crop remains unknown. The objectives of the study were to calibrate and validate a biogeochemical model, DAYCENT, and to predict the biomass yield potential of switchgrass across the Central Valley of California. Six common cultivars were calibrated using published data across the US and validated with data generated from four field trials in California (2007–2009). After calibration, the modeled range of yields across the cultivars and various management practices in the US (excluding California) was 2.4–41.2 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, generally compatible with the observed yield range of 1.3–33.7 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Overall, the model was successfully validated in California; the model explained 66–90% of observed yield variation in 2007–2009. The range of modeled yields was 2.0–41.4 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, which corresponded to the observed range of 1.3–41.1 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. The response to N fertilizer and harvest frequency on yields were also reasonably validated. The model estimated that Alamo (21–23 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) and Kanlow (22–24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) had greatest yield potential during the years after establishment. The effects of soil texture on modeled yields tended to be consistent for all cultivars, but there were distinct climatic (e.g., annual mean maximum temperature) controls among the cultivars. Our modeled results suggest that early stand maintenance of irrigated switchgrass is strongly dependent on available soil N; estimated yields increased by 1.6–5.5 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 when residual soil mineral N was sufficient for optimal re‐growth. Therefore, management options of switchgrass for regional biomass production should be ecotype‐specific and ensure available soil N maintenance.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

Changes in soil carbon stocks under perennial and annual bioenergy crops

Bioenergy crops are expected to provide biomass to replace fossil resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are of primary importance. The aim of this study was to measure changes in SOC stocks in bioenergy cropping systems comparing perennial (Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass), semi‐perennial (fescue and alfalfa), and annual (sorghum and triticale) crops, all established after arable crops. The soil was sampled at the start of the experiment and 5 or 6 years later. SOC stocks were calculated at equivalent soil mass, and δ¹³C measurements were used to calculate changes in new and old SOC stocks. Crop residues found in soil at the time of SOC measurements represented 3.5–7.2 t C ha^?1 under perennial crops vs. 0.1–0.6 t C ha^?1 for the other crops. During the 5‐year period, SOC concentrations under perennial crops increased in the surface layer (0–5 cm) and slightly declined in the lower layers. Changes in δ¹³C showed that C inputs were mainly located in the 0–18 cm layer. In contrast, SOC concentrations increased over time under semi‐perennial crops throughout the old ploughed layer (ca. 0–33 cm). SOC stocks in the old ploughed layer increased significantly over time under semi‐perennials with a mean increase of 0.93 ± 0.28 t C ha^?1 yr^?1, whereas no change occurred under perennial or annual crops. New SOC accumulation was higher for semi‐perennial than for perennial crops (1.50 vs. 0.58 t C ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively), indicating that the SOC change was due to a variation in C input rather than a change in mineralization rate. Nitrogen fertilization rate had no significant effect on SOC stocks. This study highlights the interest of comparing SOC changes over time for various cropping systems.     

Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on carbon balance,bioenergy production,and agricultural yield,in the conterminous United States

Growing concerns about energy and the environment have led to worldwide use of bioenergy. Switching from food crops to biofuel crops is an option to meet the fast‐growing need for biofuel feedstocks. This land use change consequently affects the ecosystem carbon balance. In this study, we used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, to evaluate the impacts of this change on the carbon balance, bioenergy production, and agricultural yield, assuming that several land use change scenarios from corn, soybean, and wheat to biofuel crops of switchgrass and Miscanthus will occur. We found that biofuel crops have much higher net primary production (NPP) than soybean and wheat crops. When food crops from current agricultural lands were changed to different biofuel crops, the national total NPP increased in all cases by a range of 0.14–0.88 Pg C yr^?1, except while switching from corn to switchgrass when a decrease of 14% was observed. Miscanthus is more productive than switchgrass, producing about 2.5 times the NPP of switchgrass. The net carbon loss ranges from 1.0 to 6.3 Tg C yr^?1 if food crops are changed to switchgrass, and from 0.4 to 6.7 Tg C yr^?1 if changed to Miscanthus. The largest loss was observed when soybean crops were replaced with biofuel crops. Soil organic carbon increased significantly when land use changed, reaching 100 Mg C ha^?1 in biofuel crop ecosystems. When switching from food crops to Miscanthus, the per unit area croplands produced a larger amount of ethanol than that of original food crops. In comparison, the land use change from wheat to Miscanthus produced more biomass and sequestrated more carbon. Our study suggests that Miscanthus could better serve as an energy crop than food crops or switchgrass, considering both economic and environmental benefits.