Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature‐mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum

One consequence of rising spring temperatures is that the optimum timing of key life‐history events may advance. Where this is the case, a population's fate may depend on the degree to which it is able to track a change in the optimum timing either via plasticity or via adaptation. Estimating the effect that temperature change will have on optimum timing using standard approaches is logistically challenging, with the result that very few estimates of this important parameter exist. Here we adopt an alternative statistical method that substitutes space for time to estimate the temperature sensitivity of the optimum timing of 22 plant species based on >200 000 spatiotemporal phenological observations from across the United Kingdom. We find that first leafing and flowering dates are sensitive to forcing (spring) temperatures, with optimum timing advancing by an average of 3 days °C^?1 and plastic responses to forcing between ?3 and ?8 days °C^?1. Chilling (autumn/winter) temperatures and photoperiod tend to be important cues for species with early and late phenology, respectively. For most species, we find that plasticity is adaptive, and for seven species, plasticity is sufficient to track geographic variation in the optimum phenology. For four species, we find that plasticity is significantly steeper than the optimum slope that we estimate between forcing temperature and phenology, and we examine possible explanations for this countergradient pattern, including local adaptation.     

Changes in satellite‐derived spring vegetation green‐up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: a multimethod analysis

The change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems. Over the past several decades, several studies focused on shifts in spring phenology; however, large uncertainties still exist, and one understudied source could be the method implemented in retrieving satellite‐derived spring phenology. To account for this potential uncertainty, we conducted a multimethod investigation to quantify changes in vegetation green‐up date from 1982 to 2010 over temperate China, and to characterize climatic controls on spring phenology. Over temperate China, the five methods estimated that the vegetation green‐up onset date advanced, on average, at a rate of 1.3 ± 0.6 days per decade (ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade) over the last 29 years. Moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green‐up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend. The large intermethod variance was notably observed in arid and semiarid vegetation types. Our results also showed that change in vegetation green‐up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation. However, the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation green‐up date became higher as precipitation increased, implying that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of vegetation spring phenology to change in temperature. This intricate linkage between spring phenology and precipitation must be taken into account in current phenological models which are mostly driven by temperature.     

Population responses to anthropogenic disturbance: lessons from three‐spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus in eutrophic habitats

Human‐induced environmental changes differ from most natural changes in which they happen at a faster rate and require quicker responses from populations. The first response of populations is usually phenotypically plastic alterations of morphology, physiology and behaviour. This plasticity can be favourable and move the population closer to an adaptive peak in the altered environment and, hence, maintain a viable population, or be maladaptive and move the population further from the peak and increase the risk of extinction. The radiation of the three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus from the ocean to different freshwater habitats has provided much information on adaptation to new environmental conditions. Currently, human‐induced eutrophication is changing the breeding areas of these fish, which creates a model system for investigation of responses to rapid environmental disturbance. Results show that a primary reaction is plastic alterations of behaviour, with some adjustments being adaptive while others are not. At the same time, the strength of sexual selection on several traits is relaxed, which could increase the relative importance of survival selection. Whether this will restore population viability depends on the amount of standing genetic variation in the right direction. Human disturbances can be dramatic and resolution of the limit of flexibility and the possibility of genetic adaptation should be important targets of future research.     

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near‐term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine‐scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind‐driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs’ ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high‐resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine‐scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under ‘normal’ combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020–2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high‐resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near‐term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean–atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse‐scale GCMs.     

Genetic signatures of natural selection in response to air pollution in red spruce (Picea rubens,Pinaceae)

One of the most important drivers of local adaptation for forest trees is climate. Coupled to these patterns, however, are human‐induced disturbances through habitat modification and pollution. The confounded effects of climate and disturbance have rarely been investigated with regard to selective pressure on forest trees. Here, we have developed and used a population genetic approach to search for signals of selection within a set of 36 candidate genes chosen for their putative effects on adaptation to climate and human‐induced air pollution within five populations of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.), distributed across its natural range and air pollution gradient in eastern North America. Specifically, we used F_ST outlier and environmental correlation analyses to highlight a set of seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were overly correlated with climate and levels of sulphate pollution after correcting for the confounding effects of population history. Use of three age cohorts within each population allowed the effects of climate and pollution to be separated temporally, as climate‐related SNPs (n = 7) showed the strongest signals in the oldest cohort, while pollution‐related SNPs (n = 3) showed the strongest signals in the youngest cohorts. These results highlight the usefulness of population genetic scans for the identification of putatively nonneutral evolution within genomes of nonmodel forest tree species, but also highlight the need for the development and application of robust methodologies to deal with the inherent multivariate nature of the genetic and ecological data used in these types of analyses.