Mechanistic insights into the effects of climate change on larval cod

Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual‐based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM‐projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950–1999 and 2050–2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050–2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold‐water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large‐scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic.     

Irukandji jellyfish polyps exhibit tolerance to interacting climate change stressors

Increasing ocean temperatures and strengthening boundary currents have caused the poleward migration of many marine species. Cubozoan jellyfish known to cause Irukandji syndrome have historically been confined to tropical waters but may be expanding into subtropical regions. Here, we examine the interactive effects of warming and acidification on the population dynamics of polyps of an Irukandji jellyfish, Alatina nr mordens, and the formation of statoliths in newly metamorphosed medusae, to determine if this jellyfish could tolerate future conditions predicted for southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Two experiments, examining the orthogonal factors of temperature and pH, were undertaken. Experiment 1 mimicked the current, ca. 2050 and ca. 2100 summer temperature and pH conditions predicted for SEQ using A1F1 scenarios (temperature: 25, 27, 29 °C; pH: 7.9, 7.8, 7.6) and Experiment 2 mimicked current and future winter conditions (18 and 22 °C, pH 7.9, 7.8, 7.6). All polyps in Experiment 1 survived and budded. Fewer polyps budded in the lower pH treatments; however, patterns varied slightly among temperature treatments. Statoliths at pH 7.6 were 24% narrower than those at pH 7.8 and 7.9. Most polyps survived the winter conditions mimicked by Experiment 2 but only polyps in the 22 °C, pH 7.9 treatment increased significantly. The current absence of A. nr mordens medusae in SEQ, despite the polyps' ability to tolerate the current temperature and pH conditions, suggests that ecological, rather than abiotic factors currently limit their distribution. Observations that budding was lower under low pH treatments suggest that rates of asexual reproduction will likely be much slower in the future. We consider that A. nr mordens polyps are likely to tolerate future conditions but are unlikely to thrive in the long term. However, if polyps can overcome potential ecological boundaries and acidification proceeds slowly A. nr mordens could expand polewards in the short term.     

Biomineralization plasticity and environmental heterogeneity predict geographical resilience patterns of foundation species to future change

Although geographical patterns of species' sensitivity to environmental changes are defined by interacting multiple stressors, little is known about compensatory processes shaping regional differences in organismal vulnerability. Here, we examine large‐scale spatial variations in biomineralization under heterogeneous environmental gradients of temperature, salinity and food availability across a 30° latitudinal range (3,334 km), to test whether plasticity in calcareous shell production and composition, from juveniles to large adults, mediates geographical patterns of resilience to climate change in critical foundation species, the mussels Mytilus edulis and M. trossulus. We find shell calcification decreased towards high latitude, with mussels producing thinner shells with a higher organic content in polar than temperate regions. Salinity was the best predictor of within‐region differences in mussel shell deposition, mineral and organic composition. In polar, subpolar, and Baltic low‐salinity environments, mussels produced thin shells with a thicker external organic layer (periostracum), and an increased proportion of calcite (prismatic layer, as opposed to aragonite) and organic matrix, providing potentially higher resistance against dissolution in more corrosive waters. Conversely, in temperate, higher salinity regimes, thicker, more calcified shells with a higher aragonite (nacreous layer) proportion were deposited, which suggests enhanced protection under increased predation pressure. Interacting effects of salinity and food availability on mussel shell composition predict the deposition of a thicker periostracum and organic‐enriched prismatic layer under forecasted future environmental conditions, suggesting a capacity for increased protection of high‐latitude populations from ocean acidification. These findings support biomineralization plasticity as a potentially advantageous compensatory mechanism conferring Mytilus species a protective capacity for quantitative and qualitative trade‐offs in shell deposition as a response to regional alterations of abiotic and biotic conditions in future environments. Our work illustrates that compensatory mechanisms, driving plastic responses to the spatial structure of multiple stressors, can define geographical patterns of unanticipated species resilience to global environmental change.     

The density and spatial arrangement of the invasive oyster Crassostrea gigas determines its impact on settlement of native oyster larvae

Understanding how the density and spatial arrangement of invaders is critical to developing management strategies of pest species. The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, has been translocated around the world for aquaculture and in many instances has established wild populations. Relative to other species of bivalve, it displays rapid suspension feeding, which may cause mortality of pelagic invertebrate larvae. We compared the effect on settlement of Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, larvae of manipulating the spatial arrangement and density of native S. glomerata, and non‐native C. gigas. We hypothesized that while manipulations of dead oysters would reveal the same positive relationship between attachment surface area and S. glomerata settlement between the two species, manipulations of live oysters would reveal differing density‐dependent effects between the native and non‐native oyster. In the field, whether oysters were live or dead, more larvae settled on C. gigas than S. glomerata when substrate was arranged in monospecific clumps. When, however, the two species were interspersed, there were no differences in larval settlement between them. By contrast, in aquaria simulating a higher effective oyster density, more larvae settled on live S. glomerata than C. gigas. When C. gigas was prevented from suspension feeding, settlement of larvae on C. gigas was enhanced. By contrast, settlement was similar between the two species when dead. While the presently low densities of the invasive oyster C. gigas may enhance S. glomerata larval settlement in east Australian estuaries, future increases in densities could produce negative impacts on native oyster settlement. Synthesis and applications: Our study has shown that both the spatial arrangement and density of invaders can influence their impact. Hence, management strategies aimed at preventing invasive populations reaching damaging sizes should not only consider the threshold density at which impacts exceed some acceptable limit, but also how patch formation modifies this.     

Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates.     

Effects of multiple drivers of ocean global change on the physiology and functional gene expression of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi

Ongoing ocean global change due to anthropogenic activities is causing multiple chemical and physical seawater properties to change simultaneously, which may affect the physiology of marine phytoplankton. The coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi is a model species often employed in the study of the marine carbon cycle. The effect of ocean acidification (OA) on coccolithophore calcification has been extensively studied; however, physiological responses to multiple environmental drivers are still largely unknown. Here we examined two‐way and multiple driver effects of OA and other key environmental drivers—nitrate, phosphate, irradiance, and temperature—on the growth, photosynthetic, and calcification rates, and the elemental composition of E. huxleyi. In addition, changes in functional gene expression were examined to understand the molecular mechanisms underpinning the physiological responses. The single driver manipulation experiments suggest decreased nitrate supply being the most important driver regulating E. huxleyi physiology, by significantly reducing the growth, photosynthetic, and calcification rates. In addition, the interaction of OA and decreased nitrate supply (projected for year 2100) had more negative synergistic effects on E. huxleyi physiology than all other two‐way factorial manipulations, suggesting a linkage between the single dominant driver (nitrate) effects and interactive effects with other drivers. Simultaneous manipulation of all five environmental drivers to the conditions of the projected year 2100 had the largest negative effects on most of the physiological metrics. Furthermore, functional genes associated with inorganic carbon acquisition (RubisCO, AEL1, and δCA) and calcification (CAX3, AEL1, PATP, and NhaA2) were most downregulated by the multiple driver manipulation, revealing linkages between responses of functional gene expression and associated physiological metrics. These findings together indicate that for more holistic projections of coccolithophore responses to future ocean global change, it is necessary to understand the relative importance of environmental drivers both individually (i.e., mechanistic understanding) and interactively (i.e., cumulative effect) on coccolithophore physiology.     

Effects of multiple stressors on pancreatic human islets proteome reveal new insights into the pathways involved

Pancreatic β-cell dysfunction is an early hallmark of type 1 diabetes mellitus. Among the potentially critical factors that cause β-cell dysfunction are cytokine attack, glucotoxicity, induction of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) or mitochondria stress. However, the exact molecular mechanism underlying β-cell's inability to maintain glucose homeostasis under severe stresses is unknown. This study used proinflammatory cytokines, thapsigargin, and rotenone in the presence of high concentration glucose to mimicking the conditions experienced by dysfunctional β-cells in human pancreatic islets, and profiled the alterations to the islet proteome with TMT-based proteomics. The results were further verified with label-free quantitative proteomics. The differentially expressed proteins under stress conditions reveal that immune related pathways are mostly perturbed by cytokines, while the respiratory electron transport chains and protein processing in ER pathways by rotenone. Thapsigargin together with high glucose induces dramatic increases of proteins in lipid synthesis and peroxisomal protein import pathways, with energy metabolism and vesicle secretion related pathways downregulated. High concentration glucose, on the other hand, alleviated complex I inhibition induced by rotenone. Our results contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the molecular events involved in β-cell dysfunction.     

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200 000 km² under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate–pathogen interaction.     

Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer

Climate change‐induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co‐occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO₂), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females’ energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%–87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%–340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.     

Meta‐analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming

Ocean acidification and warming are considered two of the greatest threats to marine biodiversity, yet the combined effect of these stressors on marine organisms remains largely unclear. Using a meta‐analytical approach, we assessed the biological responses of marine organisms to the effects of ocean acidification and warming in isolation and combination. As expected biological responses varied across taxonomic groups, life‐history stages, and trophic levels, but importantly, combining stressors generally exhibited a stronger biological (either positive or negative) effect. Using a subset of orthogonal studies, we show that four of five of the biological responses measured (calcification, photosynthesis, reproduction, and survival, but not growth) interacted synergistically when warming and acidification were combined. The observed synergisms between interacting stressors suggest that care must be made in making inferences from single‐stressor studies. Our findings clearly have implications for the development of adaptive management strategies particularly given that the frequency of stressors interacting in marine systems will be likely to intensify in the future. There is now an urgent need to move toward more robust, holistic, and ecologically realistic climate change experiments that incorporate interactions. Without them accurate predictions about the likely deleterious impacts to marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over the next century will not be possible.     

Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long‐lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F_ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty‐one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F_ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.     

Improved genome assembly provides new insights into genome evolution in a desert poplar (Populus euphratica)

Populus euphratica is well adapted to extreme desert environments and is an important model species for elucidating the mechanisms of abiotic stress resistance in trees. The current assembly of P. euphratica genome is highly fragmented with many gaps and errors, thereby impeding downstream applications. Here, we report an improved chromosome‐level reference genome of P. euphratica (v2.0) using single‐molecule sequencing and chromosome conformation capture (Hi‐C) technologies. Relative to the previous reference genome, our assembly represents a nearly 60‐fold improvement in contiguity, with a scaffold N50 size of 28.59 Mb. Using this genome, we have found that extensive expansion of Gypsy elements in P. euphratica led to its rapid increase in genome size compared to any other Salicaceae species studied to date, and potentially contributed to adaptive divergence driven by insertions near genes involved in stress tolerance. We also detected a wide range of unique structural rearrangements in P. euphratica, including 2,549 translocations, 454 inversions, 121 tandem and 14 segmental duplications. Several key genes likely to be involved in tolerance to abiotic stress were identified within these regions. This high‐quality genome represents a valuable resource for poplar breeding and genetic improvement in the future, as well as comparative genomic analysis with other Salicaceae species.     

Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis

The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60‐year data set for timing of leaf‐out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar ‘Payne’ to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of ‘Payne’ walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf‐out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf‐out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues.     

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998–2007) and future (2068–2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.     

Positive genetic associations among fitness traits support evolvability of a reef‐building coral under multiple stressors

Climate change threatens organisms in a variety of interactive ways that requires simultaneous adaptation of multiple traits. Predicting evolutionary responses requires an understanding of the potential for interactions among stressors and the genetic variance and covariance among fitness‐related traits that may reinforce or constrain an adaptive response. Here we investigate the capacity of Acropora millepora, a reef‐building coral, to adapt to multiple environmental stressors: rising sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and increased prevalence of infectious diseases. We measured growth rates (weight gain), coral color (a proxy for Symbiodiniaceae density), and survival, in addition to nine physiological indicators of coral and algal health in 40 coral genets exposed to each of these three stressors singly and combined. Individual stressors resulted in predicted responses (e.g., corals developed lesions after bacterial challenge and bleached under thermal stress). However, corals did not suffer substantially more when all three stressors were combined. Nor were trade‐offs observed between tolerances to different stressors; instead, individuals performing well under one stressor also tended to perform well under every other stressor. An analysis of genetic correlations between traits revealed positive covariances, suggesting that selection to multiple stressors will reinforce rather than constrain the simultaneous evolution of traits related to holobiont health (e.g., weight gain and algal density). These findings support the potential for rapid coral adaptation under climate change and emphasize the importance of accounting for corals’ adaptive capacity when predicting the future of coral reefs.     

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown‐of‐thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run‐off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017–2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near‐term, relative to current state, followed by climate‐driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business‐as‐usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate‐driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR‐wide reef performance will decline 27%–74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.