Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.     

Hydropower and the future of Amazonian biodiversity

In an effort to ensure energy independence and exploit mineral resources, the governments of Amazonian countries are embarking on a major dam building drive on the basin’s rivers, with 191 dams finished and a further 246 planned or under construction. This rush to harvest the basin’s vast renewable energy capacity has come without proper consideration of the likely negative environmental externalities on the world’s most speciose freshwater and terrestrial biotas. Here we highlight the economic drivers for hydropower development and review the literature to summarise the impacts of dam building on Amazonian biodiversity. We identify both direct and indirect impacts through the anticipated loss, fragmentation and degradation of riparian habitats. We then propose a series of measures to assess, curb and mitigate the impacts of destructive dams on Amazonian biodiversity.     

Damming interacts with the flood pulse to alter zooplankton communities in an Amazonian river

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Scaling biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes

Of all ecosystems, freshwaters support the most dynamic and highly concentrated biodiversity on Earth. These attributes of freshwater biodiversity along with increasing demand for water mean that these systems serve as significant models to understand drivers of global biodiversity change. Freshwater biodiversity changes are often attributed to hydrological alteration by water‐resource development and climate change owing to the role of the hydrological regime of rivers, wetlands and floodplains affecting patterns of biodiversity. However, a major gap remains in conceptualising how the hydrological regime determines patterns in biodiversity's multiple spatial components and facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We synthesised primary evidence of freshwater biodiversity responses to natural hydrological regimes to determine how distinct ecohydrological mechanisms affect freshwater biodiversity at local, landscape and regional spatial scales. Hydrological connectivity influences local and landscape biodiversity, yet responses vary depending on spatial scale. Biodiversity at local scales is generally positively associated with increasing connectivity whereas landscape‐scale biodiversity is greater with increasing fragmentation among locations. The effects of hydrological disturbance on freshwater biodiversity are variable at separate spatial scales and depend on disturbance frequency and history and organism characteristics. The role of hydrology in determining habitat for freshwater biodiversity also depends on spatial scaling. At local scales, persistence, stability and size of habitat each contribute to patterns of freshwater biodiversity yet the responses are variable across the organism groups that constitute overall freshwater biodiversity. We present a conceptual model to unite the effects of different ecohydrological mechanisms on freshwater biodiversity across spatial scales, and develop four principles for applying a multi‐scaled understanding of freshwater biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes. The protection and restoration of freshwater biodiversity is both a fundamental justification and a central goal of environmental water allocation worldwide. Clearer integration of concepts of spatial scaling in the context of understanding impacts of hydrological regimes on biodiversity will increase uptake of evidence into environmental flow implementation, identify suitable biodiversity targets responsive to hydrological change or restoration, and identify and manage risks of environmental flows contributing to biodiversity decline.     

Amazonian biogenic volatile organic compounds under global change

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) play important roles at cellular, foliar, ecosystem and atmospheric levels. The Amazonian rainforest represents one of the major global sources of BVOCs, so its study is essential for understanding BVOC dynamics. It also provides insights into the role of such large and biodiverse forest ecosystem in regional and global atmospheric chemistry and climate. We review the current information on Amazonian BVOCs and identify future research priorities exploring biogenic emissions and drivers, ecological interactions, atmospheric impacts, depositional processes and modifications to BVOC dynamics due to changes in climate and land cover. A feedback loop between Amazonian BVOCs and the trends of climate and land‐use changes in Amazonia is then constructed. Satellite observations and model simulation time series demonstrate the validity of the proposed loop showing a combined effect of climate change and deforestation on BVOC emission in Amazonia. A decreasing trend of isoprene during the wet season, most likely due to forest biomass loss, and an increasing trend of the sesquiterpene to isoprene ratio during the dry season suggest increasing temperature stress‐induced emissions due to climate change.     

Fishpond dams affect leaf‐litter processing and associated detritivore communities along intermittent low‐order streams

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西南干旱河谷植物多样性资源的保护与利用

西南干旱河谷是分布于我国亚热带横断山区的隐域性河谷景观, 其环境受季风气候、岭-谷地形环境和人类开发活动的共同影响。适应于季节性干旱和垂直气候分异, 干旱河谷具有独特的植被和丰富的物种多样性资源。在过去几十年中, 干旱河谷的气候变化以增温为一致特征, 同时经历着广泛的人类活动干扰, 特别是道路建设、水利工程、矿山开发和城镇化驱动的土地利用变化, 造成了普遍的植被破坏、生境退化和生物入侵, 给乡土植物多样性资源和生态系统稳定性带来了严重威胁, 然而至今对干旱河谷生物多样性的保护仍基本属于空白。因此, 建议及时建立干旱河谷的生物多样性保护体系; 因地制宜采取退化植被修复、立体农业规划、特色植物资源利用和风景旅游开发等措施, 以维持干旱河谷生态系统的可持续性; 落实生态文明建设的相关政策, 以保障西南生态屏障的生态安全和生态服务能力。     

Development of new indicators to evaluate river fragmentation and flow regulation at large scales: A case study for the Mekong River Basin

Large hydropower schemes have recently gained renewed interest as a provider of efficient and renewable energy, particularly in developing countries. However, some dams may have widespread effects on hydrological and ecosystem integrity, which reach beyond the scales addressed by typical environmental impact assessments. In this paper we address two main ecological impacts—reduced river connectivity and changes in the natural flow regime—at the scale of the entire Mekong River Basin as an important component of dam evaluations. The goal is to improve our understanding of the effect of individual dams as well as clusters of dams at a very large scale. We introduce two new indices, the River Connectivity Index (RCI) as a tool to measure network connectivity, and the River Regulation Index (RRI) as a measure of flow alteration, and calculate the individual and cumulative impact of 81 proposed dams using HydroROUT, a graph-theory based river routing model. Furthermore, we demonstrate how quantitative weighting, e.g. based on river habitat characterizations or species distribution models, may be included in dam impact assessments.A global comparison of large rivers shows that the Mekong would experience strong deterioration in the fragmentation and flow regulation indices if all dams that are currently under consideration in the basin were built, placing it among other heavily impounded rivers in the world. The results illustrate the importance of considering the location of dams, both relative in the network and relative to other already existing dams. Our approach may be used as an index-based ranking system for individual dams, or to compare basin-wide development scenarios, with the goal of providing guidance for decision makers wishing to select locations for future dams with less environmental impacts and to identify and develop potential mitigation strategies.     

Continental impacts of water development on waterbirds,contrasting two Australian river basins: Global implications for sustainable water use

The world's freshwater biotas are declining in diversity, range and abundance, more than in other realms, with human appropriation of water. Despite considerable data on the distribution of dams and their hydrological effects on river systems, there are few expansive and long analyses of impacts on freshwater biota. We investigated trends in waterbird communities over 32 years, (1983–2014), at three spatial scales in two similarly sized large river basins, with contrasting levels of water resource development, representing almost a third (29%) of Australia: the Murray–Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The Murray–Darling Basin is Australia's most developed river basin (240 dams storing 29,893 GL) while the Lake Eyre Basin is one of the less developed basins (1 dam storing 14 GL). We compared the long‐term responses of waterbird communities in the two river basins at river basin, catchment and major wetland scales. Waterbird abundances were strongly related to river flows and rainfall. For the developed Murray–Darling Basin, we identified significant long‐term declines in total abundances, functional response groups (e.g., piscivores) and individual species of waterbird (n = 50), associated with reductions in cumulative annual flow. These trends indicated ecosystem level changes. Contrastingly, we found no evidence of waterbird declines in the undeveloped Lake Eyre Basin. We also modelled the effects of the Australian Government buying up water rights and returning these to the riverine environment, at a substantial cost (>3.1 AUD billion) which were projected to partly (18% improvement) restore waterbird abundances, but projected climate change effects could reduce these benefits considerably to only a 1% or 4% improvement, with respective annual recovery of environmental flows of 2,800 GL or 3,200 GL. Our unique large temporal and spatial scale analyses demonstrated severe long‐term ecological impact of water resource development on prominent freshwater animals, with implications for global management of water resources.     

Comparison of phenology trends by land cover class: a case study in the Great Basin, USA

Direct impacts of human land use and indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change may alter land cover and associated ecosystem function, affecting ecological goods and services. Considerable work has been done to identify long‐term global trends in vegetation greenness, which is associated with primary productivity, using remote sensing. Trend analysis of satellite observations is subject to error, and ecosystem change can be confused with interannual variability. However, the relative trends of land cover classes may hold clues about differential ecosystem response to environmental forcing. Our aim was to identify phenological variability and 10‐year trends for the major land cover classes in the Great Basin. This case study involved two steps: a regional, phenology‐based land cover classification and an identification of phenological variability and 10‐year trends stratified by land cover class. The analysis used a 10‐year time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite data to assess regional scale land cover variability and identify change. The phenology‐based regional classification was more detailed and accurate than national or global products. Phenological variability over the 10‐year period was high, with substantial shifts in timing of start of season of up to 9 weeks. The mean long‐term trends of montane land cover classes were significantly different from valley land cover classes due to a poor response of montane shrubland and pinyon‐juniper woodland to the early 1990s drought. The differential response during the 1990s suggests that valley ecosystems may be more resilient and montane ecosystems more susceptible to prolonged drought. This type of regional‐scale land cover analysis is necessary to characterize current patterns of land cover phenology, distinguish between anthropogenically driven land cover change and interannual variability, and identify ecosystems potentially susceptible to regional and global change.     

The influences of climatic variation and vegetation on stream biota: lessons from the Big Dry in southeastern Australia

Aquatic biodiversity faces increasing threats from climate change, escalating exploitation of water and land use intensification. Loss of vegetation in catchments (= watersheds) has been identified as a substantial problem for many river basins, and there is an urgent need to better understand how climate change may interact with changes in catchment vegetation to influence the ecological condition of freshwater ecosystems. We used 20 years of biological monitoring data from Victoria, southeastern Australia, to explore the influences of catchment vegetation and climate on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Southeastern Australia experienced a severe drought from 1997 to 2009, with reductions of stream flows >50% in some areas. The prolonged drying substantially altered macroinvertebrate assemblages, with reduced prevalence of many flow‐dependent taxa and increased prevalence of taxa that are tolerant of low‐flow conditions and poor water quality. Stream condition, as assessed by several commonly used macroinvertebrate indices, was consistently better in reaches with extensive native tree cover in upstream catchments. Prolonged drought apparently caused similar absolute declines in macroinvertebrate condition indices regardless of vegetation cover, but streams with intact catchment and riparian vegetation started in better condition and remained so throughout the drought. The largest positive effects of catchment tree cover on both water quality and macroinvertebrate assemblages occurred above a threshold of ca. 60% areal tree cover in upstream catchments and in higher rainfall areas. Riparian tree cover also had positive effects on macroinvertebrate assemblages, especially in warmer catchments. Our results suggest that the benefits of extensive tree cover via improved water quality and in‐channel habitat persist during drought and show the potential for vegetation management to reduce negative impacts of climatic extremes for aquatic ecosystems.     

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate,atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO₂ levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO₂ fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO₂ impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO₂ fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.     

Dams in South Europe: socio-environmental approach and eDNA-metabarcoding to study dam acceptance and ecosystem health

Under current climate warming, dams and reservoirs are main options to ensure water supply in dry regions. However, the presence of these infrastructures encompasses impacts on ecosystem due to the alteration of connectivity and river habitat. We expect that as a result of the relation between water supply as a resource and the population will depend on their use or demand, so the benefits of dams compensate their negative impacts in regions with droughts while not having the same perception in zones where water supply is not a problem, so the public acceptance of dams is expected to change depending on the area. Here, we have employed a multidisciplinary approach to study dam acceptance and also measure ecosystem health in two dammed areas, Guadalhorce and Nalón rivers, Mediterranean dry south and Atlantic humid north of Spain, respectively. The methodology employed has included the use of Environmental DNA for phytoplankton inventory and surveys to stakeholders and ordinary citizens to measure dam’s acceptance. Worse bioindicators of water quality associated to dams were found in Guadalhorce than in Nalon River. However, stakeholders valued more the ecosystem services provided by Guadalhorce dams, especially of cultural nature, than those provided by Nalón dams. Most citizens consulted (N?=?319 and 300 in Guadalhorce and Nalón regions) were favourable to the presence of dams and reservoirs. They would also increase their annual taxes to restore river connectivity, especially in Guadalhorce River, while dam demolition was the least supported. The generally positive views would help to identify actions for improvement of dammed rivers highlighting the importance of restoring river connectivity without dam demolition for local river users.

     

Warming,eutrophication, and predator loss amplify subsidies between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems

The exchange of organisms and energy among ecosystems has major impacts on food web structure and dynamics, yet little is known about how climate warming combines with other pervasive anthropogenic perturbations to affect such exchanges. We used an outdoor freshwater mesocosm experiment to investigate the interactive effects of warming, eutrophication, and changes in top predators on the flux of biomass between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We demonstrated that predatory fish decoupled aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems by reducing the emergence of aquatic organisms and suppressing the decomposition of terrestrial plant detritus. In contrast, warming and nutrients enhanced cross‐ecosystem exchanges by increasing emergence and decomposition, and these effects were strongest in the absence of predators. Furthermore, we found that warming advanced while predators delayed the phenology of insect emergence. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic perturbations may extend well beyond ecosystem boundaries by influencing cross‐ecosystem subsidies. We find that these changes are sufficient to substantially impact recipient communities and potentially alter the carbon balance between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere.     

The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes

Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long‐term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast‐flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.     

Research priorities for natural ecosystems in a changing global climate

Climate change poses significant emerging risks to biodiversity, ecosystem function and associated socioecological systems. Adaptation responses must be initiated in parallel with mitigation efforts, but resources are limited. As climate risks are not distributed equally across taxa, ecosystems and processes, strategic prioritization of research that addresses stakeholder‐relevant knowledge gaps will accelerate effective uptake into adaptation policy and management action. After a decade of climate change adaptation research within the Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, we synthesize the National Adaptation Research Plans for marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We identify the key, globally relevant priorities for ongoing research relevant to informing adaptation policy and environmental management aimed at maximizing the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Informed by both global literature and an extensive stakeholder consultation across all ecosystems, sectors and regions in Australia, involving thousands of participants, we suggest 18 priority research topics based on their significance, urgency, technical and economic feasibility, existing knowledge gaps and potential for cobenefits across multiple sectors. These research priorities provide a unified guide for policymakers, funding organizations and researchers to strategically direct resources, maximize stakeholder uptake of resulting knowledge and minimize the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. Given the pace of climate change, it is imperative that we inform and accelerate adaptation progress in all regions around the world.     

Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass‐dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming

Northern temperate ecosystems are experiencing warmer and more variable winters, trends that are expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Despite this, most studies have focused on climate change impacts during the growing season, particularly when comparing responses across different vegetation cover types. Here we examined how a perennial grassland and adjacent mixed forest ecosystem in New Hampshire, United States, responded to a period of highly variable winters from 2014 through 2017 that included the warmest winter on record to date. In the grassland, record‐breaking temperatures in the winter of 2015/2016 led to a February onset of plant growth and the ecosystem became a sustained carbon sink well before winter ended, taking up roughly 90 g/m² more carbon during the winter to spring transition than in other recorded years. The forest was an unusually large carbon source during the same period. While forest photosynthesis was restricted by leaf‐out phenology, warm winter temperatures caused large pulses of ecosystem respiration that released nearly 230 g C/m² from February through April, more than double the carbon losses during that period in cooler years. These findings suggest that, as winters continue to warm, increases in ecosystem respiration outside the growing season could outpace increases in carbon uptake during a longer growing season, particularly in forests that depend on leaf‐out timing to initiate carbon uptake. In ecosystems with a perennial leaf habit, warming winter temperatures are more likely to increase ecosystem carbon uptake through extension of the active growing season. Our results highlight the importance of understanding relationships among antecedent winter conditions and carbon exchange across land‐cover types to understand how landscape carbon exchange will change under projected climate warming.     

Synthesizing the role of epigenetics in the response and adaptation of species to climate change in freshwater ecosystems

Freshwater ecosystems are amongst the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Currently, climate change is one of the most important drivers of freshwater transformation and its effects include changes in the composition, biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Understanding the capacity of freshwater species to tolerate the environmental fluctuations induced by climate change is critical to the development of effective conservation strategies. In the last few years, epigenetic mechanisms were increasingly put forward in this context because of their pivotal role in gene–environment interactions. In addition, the evolutionary role of epigenetically inherited phenotypes is a relatively recent but promising field. Here, we examine and synthesize the impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, exploring the potential role of epigenetic mechanisms in both short‐ and long‐term adaptation of species. Following this wrapping‐up of current evidence, we particularly focused on bringing together the most promising future research avenues towards a better understanding of the effects of climate change on freshwater biodiversity, specifically highlighting potential molecular targets and the most suitable freshwater species for future epigenetic studies in this context.     

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Projected climate change effects on Alberta's boreal forests imply future challenges for oil sands reclamation

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to “equivalent land capability,” implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.