Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

Large‐scale prerain vegetation green‐up across Africa

Information on the response of vegetation to different environmental drivers, including rainfall, forms a critical input to ecosystem models. Currently, such models are run based on parameters that, in some cases, are either assumed or lack supporting evidence (e.g., that vegetation growth across Africa is rainfall‐driven). A limited number of studies have reported that the onset of rain across Africa does not fully explain the onset of vegetation growth, for example, drawing on the observation of prerain flush effects in some parts of Africa. The spatial extent of this prerain green‐up effect, however, remains unknown, leaving a large gap in our understanding that may bias ecosystem modelling. This paper provides the most comprehensive spatial assessment to‐date of the magnitude and frequency of the different patterns of phenology response to rainfall across Africa and for different vegetation types. To define the relations between phenology and rainfall, we investigated the spatial variation in the difference, in number of days, between the start of rainy season (SRS) and start of vegetation growing season (SOS); and between the end of rainy season (ERS) and end of vegetation growing season (EOS). We reveal a much more extensive spread of prerain green‐up over Africa than previously reported, with prerain green‐up being the norm rather than the exception. We also show the relative sparsity of postrain green‐up, confined largely to the Sudano‐Sahel region. While the prerain green‐up phenomenon is well documented, its large spatial extent was not anticipated. Our results, thus, contrast with the widely held view that rainfall drives the onset and end of the vegetation growing season across Africa. Our findings point to a much more nuanced role of rainfall in Africa's vegetation growth cycle than previously thought, specifically as one of a set of several drivers, with important implications for ecosystem modelling.     

Continental‐scale determinants of population trends in European amphibians and reptiles

The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.     

A review of influences of land use and land cover change on ecosystems

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

Large‐scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long‐term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end‐of‐the‐century changes based on a high‐greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long‐term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two‐step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end‐of‐the‐century (2080–2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.     

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对生态系统的影响

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness

The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48 × 48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8 × 4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large‐scale refugia is the priority. In human‐dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large‐scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network.     

Large‐scale population genetic structure in Bonelli's Eagle Aquila fasciata

In bird species that have a high movement capacity, dispersal may connect subpopulations over vast geographical regions, with important consequences for the design of conservation management strategies. Here we used a molecular approach to infer the patterns and rates of dispersal among eight Mediterranean subpopulations of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle, based on 245 individuals screened at 17 microsatellite loci. There was moderate genetic differentiation between subpopulations sampled in the western (Iberia and Morocco) and eastern (Cyprus) Mediterranean, whereas differentiation among subpopulations in the former region was weak to moderate and followed a pattern of isolation by distance. Within the western Mediterranean, the small, peripheral and ecologically unique population of southwest Portugal had the lowest genetic diversity and the highest differentiation. The remaining subpopulations formed two loose clusters, one including Morocco and southwest and eastern Spain, and the other northeast Portugal and western and central Spain. Few recent migrants were detected, and they originated primarily from adjacent subpopulations. Our findings suggest that western Mediterranean Bonelli's Eagles may have a large‐scale metapopulation structure, with subpopulations connected to some extent by distance‐dependent dispersal, probably influenced by natal philopatry and the geographical configuration of subpopulations. The combination of marked ecological and genetic divergence suggests that the peripheral subpopulation of southwest Portugal may be regarded as a distinct management unit.     

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

The break‐up of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered cropland abandonment on a continental scale, which in turn led to carbon accumulation on abandoned land across Eurasia. Previous studies have estimated carbon accumulation rates across Russia based on large‐scale modelling. Studies that assess carbon sequestration on abandoned land based on robust field sampling are rare. We investigated soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a randomized sampling design along a climatic gradient from forest steppe to Sub‐Taiga in Western Siberia (Tyumen Province). In total, SOC contents were sampled on 470 plots across different soil and land‐use types. The effect of land use on changes in SOC stock was evaluated, and carbon sequestration rates were calculated for different age stages of abandoned cropland. While land‐use type had an effect on carbon accumulation in the topsoil (0–5 cm), no independent land‐use effects were found for deeper SOC stocks. Topsoil carbon stocks of grasslands and forests were significantly higher than those of soils managed for crops and under abandoned cropland. SOC increased significantly with time since abandonment. The average carbon sequestration rate for soils of abandoned cropland was 0.66 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 (1–20 years old, 0–5 cm soil depth), which is at the lower end of published estimates for Russia and Siberia. There was a tendency towards SOC saturation on abandoned land as sequestration rates were much higher for recently abandoned (1–10 years old, 1.04 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) compared to earlier abandoned crop fields (11–20 years old, 0.26 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1). Our study confirms the global significance of abandoned cropland in Russia for carbon sequestration. Our findings also suggest that robust regional surveys based on a large number of samples advance model‐based continent‐wide SOC prediction.     

Net effects of multiple stressors in freshwater ecosystems: a meta‐analysis

The accelerating rate of global change has focused attention on the cumulative impacts of novel and extreme environmental changes (i.e. stressors), especially in marine ecosystems. As integrators of local catchment and regional processes, freshwater ecosystems are also ranked highly sensitive to the net effects of multiple stressors, yet there has not been a large‐scale quantitative synthesis. We analysed data from 88 papers including 286 responses of freshwater ecosystems to paired stressors and discovered that overall, their cumulative mean effect size was less than the sum of their single effects (i.e. an antagonistic interaction). Net effects of dual stressors on diversity and functional performance response metrics were additive and antagonistic, respectively. Across individual studies, a simple vote‐counting method revealed that the net effects of stressor pairs were frequently more antagonistic (41%) than synergistic (28%), additive (16%) or reversed (15%). Here, we define a reversal as occurring when the net impact of two stressors is in the opposite direction (negative or positive) from that of the sum of their single effects. While warming paired with nutrification resulted in additive net effects, the overall mean net effect of warming combined with a second stressor was antagonistic. Most importantly, the mean net effects across all stressor pairs and response metrics were consistently antagonistic or additive, contrasting the greater prevalence of reported synergies in marine systems. Here, a possible explanation for more antagonistic responses by freshwater biota to stressors is that the inherent greater environmental variability of smaller aquatic ecosystems fosters greater potential for acclimation and co‐adaptation to multiple stressors.     

Multi‐scale responses to warming in an experimental insect metacommunity

In metacommunities, diversity is the product of species interactions at the local scale and dispersal between habitat patches at the regional scale. Although warming can alter both species interactions and dispersal, the combined effects of warming on these two processes remains uncertain. To determine the independent and interactive effects of warming‐induced changes to local species interactions and dispersal, we constructed experimental metacommunities consisting of enclosed milkweed patches seeded with five herbivorous milkweed specialist insect species. We treated metacommunities with two levels of warming (unwarmed and warmed) and three levels of connectivity (isolated, low connectivity, high connectivity). Based on metabolic theory, we predicted that if plant resources were limited, warming would accelerate resource drawdown, causing local insect declines and increasing both insect dispersal and the importance of connectivity to neighboring patches for insect persistence. Conversely, given abundant resources, warming could have positive local effects on insects, and the risk of traversing a corridor to reach a neighboring patch could outweigh the benefits of additional resources. We found support for the latter scenario. Neither resource drawdown nor the weak insect‐insect associations in our system were affected by warming, and most insect species did better locally in warmed conditions and had dispersal responses that were unchanged or indirectly affected by warming. Dispersal across the matrix posed a species‐specific risk that led to declines in two species in connected metacommunities. Combined, this scaled up to cause an interactive effect of warming and connectivity on diversity, with unwarmed metacommunities with low connectivity incurring the most rapid declines in diversity. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of integrating the complex outcomes of species interactions and spatial structure in understanding community response to climate change.     

Biofuels agriculture: landscape‐scale trade‐offs between fuel,economics, carbon,energy, food,and fiber

First‐generation biofuels are an existing, scalable form of renewable energy of the type urgently required to mitigate climate change. In this study, we assessed the potential benefits, costs, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture to inform bioenergy policy. We assessed different climate change and carbon subsidy scenarios in an 11.9 million ha (5.48 million ha arable) region in southern Australia. We modeled the spatial distribution of agricultural production, full life‐cycle net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and net energy, and economic profitability for both food agriculture (wheat, legumes, sheep rotation) and biofuels agriculture (wheat, canola rotation for ethanol/biodiesel production). The costs, benefits, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture varied geographically, with climate change, and with the level of carbon subsidy. Below we describe the results in general and provide (in parentheses) illustrative results under historical mean climate and a carbon subsidy of A$20 t^?1 CO₂^?e. Biofuels agriculture was more profitable over an extensive area (2.85 million ha) of the most productive arable land and produced large quantities of biofuels (1.7 GL yr^?1). Biofuels agriculture substantially increased economic profit (145.8 million $A yr^?1 or 30%), but had only a modest net GHG abatement (?2.57 million t CO₂^?e yr^?1), and a negligible effect on net energy production (?0.11 PJ yr^?1). However, food production was considerably reduced in terms of grain (?3.04 million t yr^?1) and sheep meat (?1.89 million head yr^?1). Wool fiber production was also substantially reduced (?23.19 kt yr^?1). While biofuels agriculture can produce short‐term benefits, it also has costs, and the vulnerability of biofuels to climatic warming and drying renders it a myopic strategy. Nonetheless, in some areas the profitability of biofuels agriculture is robust to variation in climate and level of carbon subsidy and these areas may form part of a long‐term diversified mix of land‐use solutions to climate change if trade‐offs can be managed.     

Large‐scale,long‐term trends in British river macroinvertebrates

Rivers are among the world's most modified ecosystems, with poor water quality representing a prominent problem for over 200 years, especially in urban areas. In Western Europe, however, industrial decline, tighter regulation and improved wastewater treatment have combined over recent decades to create conditions conducive to extensive restoration and positive biological change. Here, we evaluate the river macroinvertebrate fauna of England and Wales in relation to water quality, physical habitat and climate over almost two decades. We predicted that biological recovery would be characterized by: (i) greater taxon richness and prevalence of pollution‐sensitive taxa, (ii) larger changes in more heavily urbanized catchments, and (iii) temporal trends in assemblage structure that correlated with improving water quality. Family level richness increased on average by nearly 20% during 1991–2008, accompanied by a widespread shift towards taxa characteristic of well‐oxygenated and less polluted waters. Changes were largest in the most urbanized catchments. A combination of natural gradients and anthropogenic pressures explained the variation among sites, whereas temporal changes correlated with improving water quality and variations in discharge. Positive trends were not universal, however, and there was localized deterioration in some streams draining upland areas and in the lowland south east. Our results are consistent with a large‐scale ecological recovery of English and Welsh rivers since 1990, probably continuing a trend from the mid‐20th century. Based on these results, we suggest: (i) freshwater communities are resilient to long‐term anthropogenic pressures, (ii) biodiversity benefits can arise from investment and long‐term restoration intended largely to enhance ecosystem services such as drinking water and sanitary concerns, and (iii) long‐term monitoring data collected for statutory purposes–based in this case on nearly 50 000 samples–can address scientific questions at spatial and temporal extents seldom achieved in research programmes.     

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land‐use changes

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward‐looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land‐use and land‐cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land‐use and land‐cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward‐looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.     

Temporal response of soil organic carbon after grassland‐related land‐use change

The net flux of CO₂ exchanged with the atmosphere following grassland‐related land‐use change (LUC) depends on the subsequent temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Yet, the magnitude and timing of these dynamics are still unclear. We compiled a global data set of 836 paired‐sites to quantify temporal SOC changes after grassland‐related LUC. In order to discriminate between SOC losses from the initial ecosystem and gains from the secondary one, the post‐LUC time series of SOC data was combined with satellite‐based net primary production observations as a proxy of carbon input to the soil. Globally, land conversion from either cropland or forest into grassland leads to SOC accumulation; the reverse shows net SOC loss. The SOC response curves vary between different regions. Conversion of cropland to managed grassland results in more SOC accumulation than natural grassland recovery from abandoned cropland. We did not consider the biophysical variables (e.g., climate conditions and soil properties) when fitting the SOC turnover rate into the observation data but analyzed the relationships between the fitted turnover rate and these variables. The SOC turnover rate is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation (p < 0.05), but not with the clay fraction of soils (p > 0.05). Comparing our results with predictions from bookkeeping models, we found that bookkeeping models overestimate by 56% of the long‐term (100 years horizon) cumulative SOC emissions for grassland‐related LUC types in tropical and temperate regions since 2000. We also tested the spatial representativeness of our data set and calculated SOC response curves using the representative subset of sites in each region. Our study provides new insight into the impact grassland‐related LUC on the global carbon budget and sheds light on the potential of grassland conservation for climate mitigation.     

Ecological correlates of mammal β‐diversity in Amazonian land‐bridge islands: from small‐ to large‐bodied species

Aim

Mega hydroelectric dams have become one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss in the lowland tropics. In these reservoirs, vertebrate studies have focused on local (α) diversity measures, whereas between‐site (β) diversity remains poorly assessed despite its pivotal importance in understanding how species diversity is structured and maintained. Here, we unravel the patterns and ecological correlates of mammal β‐diversity, including both small (SM) and midsized to large mammal species (LM) across 23 islands and two continuous forest sites within a mega hydroelectric reservoir.

Location

Balbina Hydroelectric Dam, Central Brazilian Amazonia.

Methods

Small mammals were sampled using live and pitfall traps (48,350 trap‐nights), and larger mammals using camera traps (8,160 trap‐nights). β‐diversity was examined for each group using multiplicative diversity decomposition of Hill numbers, which considers the importance of rare, common and dominant species, and tested to what extent those were related to a set of environmental characteristics measured at different spatial scales.

Results

β‐diversity for both mammal groups was higher when considering species presence–absence. When considering species abundance, β‐diversity was significantly higher for SM than for LM assemblages. Habitat variables, such as differences in tree species richness and percentage of old‐growth trees, were strong correlates of β‐diversity for both SMs and LMs. Conversely, β‐diversity was weakly related to patch and landscape characteristics, except for LMs, for which β‐diversity was correlated with differences in island sizes.

Main conclusions

The lower β‐diversity of LMs between smaller islands suggests subtractive homogenization of this group. Although island size plays a major role in structuring mammal α‐diversity in several land‐bridge islands, local vegetation characteristics were additional key factors determining β‐diversity for both mammal groups. Maintaining the integrity of vegetation characteristics and preventing the formation of a large set of small islands within reservoirs should be considered in long‐term management plans in both existing and planned hydropower development in lowland tropical forests.

     

Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison

Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.     

N‐dimensional hypervolumes to study stability of complex ecosystems

Although our knowledge on the stabilising role of biodiversity and on how it is affected by perturbations has greatly improved, we still lack a comprehensive view on ecosystem stability that is transversal to different habitats and perturbations. Hence, we propose a framework that takes advantage of the multiplicity of components of an ecosystem and their contribution to stability. Ecosystem components can range from species or functional groups, to different functional traits, or even the cover of different habitats in a landscape mosaic. We make use of n‐dimensional hypervolumes to define ecosystem states and assess how much they shift after environmental changes have occurred. We demonstrate the value of this framework with a study case on the effects of environmental change on Alpine ecosystems. Our results highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach when studying ecosystem stability and show that our framework is flexible enough to be applied to different types of ecosystem components, which can have important implications for the study of ecosystem stability and transient dynamics.