Rise of the generalists: evidence for climate driven homogenization in avian communities

Aims Biogeographical evidence suggests a strong link between climate and patterns of species diversity, and climate change is known to cause range shifts. However, there is little understanding of how shifts affect community composition and we lack empirical evidence of recent impacts of climate change on the diversity of vertebrates. Using a long‐term comprehensive dataset on bird abundance, we explore recent patterns of change in different components of species diversity and avian communities, and postulate a process to explain the observed changes in diversity and specialization. Location Britain. Methods We used Breeding Bird Survey data for Britain from 1994 to 2006 to calculate site‐specific diversity and community specialization indices. We modelled these indices using generalized additive models to examine the relationship between local climate and spatial and temporal trends in community metrics and the relationship between changes in diversity and specialization. Results Local temperature was positively associated with alpha diversity, which increased over the study period, supporting empirical and theoretical predictions of the effect of climate warming. Diversity increased in all habitats, but the rate of increase was greatest in upland areas. However, temperature was negatively associated with community specialization indices, which declined over the same period. Our modelling revealed a nonlinear relationship between community specialization and species diversity. Main conclusions Our models of diversity and specialization provide stark empirical evidence for a link between warming climate and community homogenization. Over a 13‐year period of warming temperatures, diversity indices increased while average community specialization decreased. We suggest that the observed diversity increases were most likely driven by range expansion of generalist species and that future warming is likely to increase homogenization of community structure. When assessed in combination, diversity and specialization measures provide a powerful index for monitoring the impacts of climate change.     

Impacts of thermal mismatches on chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis prevalence are moderated by life stage,body size,elevation and latitude

Global climate change is increasing the frequency of unpredictable weather conditions; however, it remains unclear how species‐level and geographic factors, including body size and latitude, moderate impacts of unusually warm or cool temperatures on disease. Because larger and lower‐latitude hosts generally have slower acclimation times than smaller and higher‐latitude hosts, we hypothesised that their disease susceptibility increases under ‘thermal mismatches’ or differences between baseline climate and the temperature during surveying for disease. Here, we examined how thermal mismatches interact with body size, life stage, habitat, latitude, elevation, phylogeny and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) conservation status to predict infection prevalence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in a global analysis of 32 291 amphibian hosts. As hypothesised, we found that the susceptibility of larger hosts and hosts from lower latitudes to Bd was influenced by thermal mismatches. Furthermore, hosts of conservation concern were more susceptible than others following thermal mismatches, suggesting that thermal mismatches might have contributed to recent amphibian declines.     

景观指数之间的相关分析

应用辽宁省1997~1998年的TM 5影像数据,编制了景观类型图,以78个县市区为单位,分割成78个景观,共计算39个景观格局指数,对它们进行了相关分析。总面积是最基本的景观指数,它决定景观总边界长度、斑块数、类型密度等基本指数,同时与多个指数有显著的相关关系(相关系数绝对值大于0.75)。形状指数的独立性强,极少数指数与其它指数有显著的相关关系;多样性指数和蔓延度指数之间信息重复量最多,都表示景观的异质性,但多样性指数以面积百分比表示景观异质性,而蔓延度指数以类型之间相邻边界的百分比表示景观异质性。研究发现,如果两个指数之间存在显著的相关关系,而由它们两个构成的指数与它们之间没有显著的相关关系。如果指数平均值之间存在显著的相关关系,则它们的变异系数之间不存在显著的相关关系。景观指数间的相关系数不仅与景观格局本身有关,还与空间尺度,分类系统、计算公式及其参数、计算单元和生态学意义关系密切。指数之间影响因子的相同之处越多,它们之间存在显著相关关系的概率越大。     

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100‐year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra‐annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long‐term live‐trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires.     

Anomalous droughts,not invasion,decrease persistence of native fishes in a desert river

Changing climate extremes and invasion by non‐native species are two of the most prominent threats to native faunas. Predicting the relationships between global change and native faunas requires a quantitative toolkit that effectively links the timing and magnitude of extreme events to variation in species abundances. Here, we examine how discharge anomalies – unexpected floods and droughts – determine covariation in abundance of native and non‐native fish species in a highly variable desert river in Arizona. We quantified stochastic variation in discharge using Fourier analyses on >15 000 daily observations. We subsequently coupled maximum annual spectral anomalies with a 15‐year time series of fish abundances (1994–2008), using Multivariate Autoregressive State‐Space (MARSS) models. Abiotic drivers (discharge anomalies) were paramount in determining long‐term fish abundances, whereas biotic drivers (species interactions) played only a secondary role. As predicted, anomalous droughts reduced the abundances of native species, while floods increased them. However, in contrast to previous studies, we observed that the non‐native assemblage was surprisingly unresponsive to extreme events. Biological trait analyses showed that functional uniqueness was higher in native than in non‐native fishes. We also found that discharge anomalies influenced diversity patterns at the meta‐community level, with nestedness increasing after anomalous droughts due to the differential impairment of native species. Overall, our results advance the notion that discharge variation is key in determining community trajectories in the long term, predicting the persistence of native fauna even in the face of invasion. We suggest this variation, rather than biotic interactions, may commonly underlie covariation between native and non‐native faunas, especially in highly variable environments. If droughts become increasingly severe due to climate change, and floods increasingly muted due to regulation, fish assemblages in desert rivers may become taxonomically and functionally impoverished and dominated by non‐native taxa.     

Using a historic drought and high‐heat event to validate thermal exposure predictions for ground‐dwelling birds

Deviations from typical environmental conditions can provide insight into how organisms may respond to future weather extremes predicted by climate modeling. During an episodic and multimonth heat wave event (i.e., ambient temperature up to 43.4°C), we studied the thermal ecology of a ground‐dwelling bird species in Western Oklahoma, USA. Specifically, we measured black bulb temperature (T_bb) and vegetation parameters at northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) adult and brood locations as well as at stratified random points in the study area. On the hottest days (i.e., ≥39°C), adults and broods obtained thermal refuge using tall woody cover that remained on average up to 16.51°C cooler than random sites on the landscape which reached >57°C. We also found that refuge sites used by bobwhites moderated thermal conditions by more than twofold compared to stratified random sites on the landscape but that T_bb commonly exceeded thermal stress thresholds for bobwhites (39°C) for several hours of the day within thermal refuges. The serendipitous high heat conditions captured in our study represent extreme heat for our study region as well as thermal stress for our study species, and subsequently allowed us to assess ground‐dwelling bird responses to temperatures that are predicted to become more common in the future. Our findings confirm the critical importance of tall woody cover for moderating temperatures and functioning as important islands of thermal refuge for ground‐dwelling birds, especially during extreme heat. However, the potential for extreme heat loads within thermal refuges that we observed (albeit much less extreme than the landscape) indicates that the functionality of tall woody cover to mitigate heat extremes may be increasingly limited in the future, thereby reinforcing predictions that climate change represents a clear and present danger for these species.     

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact‐relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude‐, frequency‐, and severity‐based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single‐model multirealization ensembles. Under a high‐emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency‐ and severity‐based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude‐based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity‐based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude‐ and frequency‐based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact‐relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well‐before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme‐metric and domain‐type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty‐first century radiative forcing.     

Environmental Complexity and Biodiversity: The Multi-Layered Evolutionary History of a Log-Dwelling Velvet Worm in Montane Temperate Australia

Phylogeographic studies provide a framework for understanding the importance of intrinsic versus extrinsic factors in shaping patterns of biodiversity through identifying past and present microevolutionary processes that contributed to lineage divergence. Here we investigate population structure and diversity of the Onychophoran (velvet worm) Euperipatoides rowelli in southeastern Australian montane forests that were not subject to Pleistocene glaciations, and thus likely retained more forest cover than systems under glaciation. Over a ~100 km transect of structurally-connected forest, we found marked nuclear and mitochondrial (mt) DNA genetic structuring, with spatially-localised groups. Patterns from mtDNA and nuclear data broadly corresponded with previously defined geographic regions, consistent with repeated isolation in refuges during Pleistocene climatic cycling. Nevertheless, some E. rowelli genetic contact zones were displaced relative to hypothesized influential landscape structures, implying more recent processes overlying impacts of past environmental history. Major impacts at different timescales were seen in the phylogenetic relationships among mtDNA sequences, which matched geographic relationships and nuclear data only at recent timescales, indicating historical gene flow and/or incomplete lineage sorting. Five major E. rowelli phylogeographic groups were identified, showing substantial but incomplete reproductive isolation despite continuous habitat. Regional distinctiveness, in the face of lineages abutting within forest habitat, could indicate pre- and/or postzygotic gene flow limitation. A potentially functional phenotypic character, colour pattern variation, reflected the geographic patterns in the molecular data. Spatial-genetic patterns broadly match those in previously-studied, co-occurring low-mobility organisms, despite a variety of life histories. We suggest that for E. rowelli, the complex topography and history of the region has led to interplay among limited dispersal ability, historical responses to environmental change, local adaptation, and some resistance to free admixture at geographic secondary contact, leading to strong genetic structuring at fine spatial scale.     

Correlated evolution of thermal niches and functional physiology in tropical freshwater fishes

The role of ecology in phenotypic and species diversification is widely documented. Nonetheless, numerous nonadaptive processes can shape realized niches and phenotypic variation in natural populations, complicating inferences about adaptive evolution at macroevolutionary scales. We tested for evolved differences in thermal tolerances and their association with the realized thermal niche (including metrics describing diurnal and seasonal patterns of temperature extremes and variability) across a genus of tropical freshwater fishes reared in a standardized environment. There was limited evolution along the thermal niche axis associated with variation in maximum temperature and in upper thermal limits. In contrast, there was considerable diversification along the first major axis of the thermal niche associated with minimum temperatures and in lower thermal limits. Across our adaptive landscape analyses, 70% of species exhibited evidence of divergence in thermal niches. Most importantly, the first two major axes of thermal niche variation were significantly correlated with variation in lower thermal limits. Our results indicate adaptation to divergent thermal niches and adaptive evolution of related functional traits, and highlight the importance of divergence in lower thermal limits for the evolution of tropical biodiversity.     

Rapid within‐ and transgenerational changes in thermal tolerance and fitness in variable thermal landscapes

Phenotypic plasticity may increase the performance and fitness and allow organisms to cope with variable environmental conditions. We studied within‐generation plasticity and transgenerational effects of thermal conditions on temperature tolerance and demographic parameters in Drosophila melanogaster. We employed a fully factorial design, in which both parental (P) and offspring generations (F1) were reared in a constant or a variable thermal environment. Thermal variability during ontogeny increased heat tolerance in P, but with demographic cost as this treatment resulted in substantially lower survival, fecundity, and net reproductive rate. The adverse effects of thermal variability (V) on demographic parameters were less drastic in flies from the F1, which exhibited higher net reproductive rates than their parents. These compensatory responses could not totally overcome the challenges of the thermally variable regime, contrasting with the offspring of flies raised in a constant temperature (C) that showed no reduction in fitness with thermal variation. Thus, the parental thermal environment had effects on thermal tolerance and demographic parameters in fruit fly. These results demonstrate how transgenerational effects of environmental conditions on heat tolerance, as well as their potential costs on other fitness components, can have a major impact on populations’ resilience to warming temperatures and more frequent thermal extremes.     

Geographic patterns and environmental correlates of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of aquatic plants in China

Studies on large-scale geographic patterns of aquatic plant diversity can promote research on the generality of macroecological patterns in different ecosystems. Here, we compiled a checklist of 889 aquatic angiosperms in China, including 738 helophytes (emergent and marshy plants) and 151 hydrophytes (submerged, free-floating, and floating-leaved plants). We explore the geographic patterns and environmental correlates of aquatic plant diversity based on six metrics including species richness (SR), weighted endemism (WE), phylogenetic diversity (PD), phylogenetic endemism (PE), the standardized effect size of phylogenetic diversity (PDses), and the standardized effect size of mean phylogenetic distance (MPDses). Our results show that the diversity of aquatic plants in China is extremely uneven, with high diversity in southeastern China and low diversity in northwestern China, and the geographic patterns of taxonomic and PD are generally consistent. The pattern of helophytes differs from that of hydrophytes. Notably, the wavy-shaped pattern of aquatic plant diversity (especially SR and PD for hydrophytes) across the latitude observed in this study is not consistent with those previously observed for aquatic plants in other continents. Climatic variables and water environmental variables are the main drivers of aquatic plant diversity in China; however, the effects of individual variables differ between helophytes and hydrophytes. Water environmental variables have a greater impact on PDses and MPDses of hydrophytes than those of helophytes. Overall, our work provides insight into understanding the large-scale patterns of aquatic plant diversity and is a critical addition to previous studies on the macroecological pattern of terrestrial organisms.     

Taxonomic and functional diversity covary in rock pool microalgal communities despite their different drivers

Local biodiversity has traditionally been estimated with taxonomic diversity metrics such as species richness. Recently, the concept of biodiversity has been extended beyond species identity by ecological traits determining the functional role of a species in a community. This interspecific functional diversity typically responds more strongly to local environmental variation compared with taxonomic diversity, while taxonomic diversity may mirror more strongly dispersal processes compared with functional metrics. Several trait‐based indices have been developed to measure functional diversity for various organisms and habitat types, but studies of their applicability on aquatic microbial communities have been underrepresented. We examined the drivers and covariance of taxonomic and functional diversity among diatom rock pool communities on the Baltic Sea coast. We quantified three taxonomic (species richness, Shannon''s diversity, and Pielou''s evenness) and three functional (functional richness, evenness, and divergence) diversity indices and determined abiotic factors best explaining variation in these indices by generalized linear mixed models. The six diversity indices were highly collinear except functional evenness, which merely correlated significantly with taxonomic evenness. All diversity indices were always explained by water conductivity and temperature–sampling month interaction. Taxonomic diversity was further consistently explained by pool distance to the sea, and functional richness and divergence by pool location. The explained variance in regression models did not markedly differ between taxonomic and functional metrics. Our findings do not clearly support the superiority of neither set of diversity indices in explaining coastal microbial diversity, but rather highlight the general overlap among the indices. However, as individual metrics may be driven by different factors, the greatest advantage in assessing biodiversity is nevertheless probably achieved with a simultaneous application of the taxonomic and functional diversity metrics.     

Physiological and regulatory underpinnings of geographic variation in reptilian cold tolerance across a latitudinal cline

Understanding the mechanisms that produce variation in thermal performance is a key component to investigating climatic effects on evolution and adaptation. However, disentangling the effects of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in shaping patterns of geographic variation in natural populations can prove challenging. Additionally, the physiological mechanisms that cause organismal dysfunction at extreme temperatures are still largely under debate. Using the green anole, Anolis carolinensis, we integrate measures of cold tolerance (CT_min), standard metabolic rate, heart size, blood lactate concentration and RNAseq data from liver tissue to investigate geographic variation in cold tolerance and its underlying mechanisms along a latitudinal cline. We found significant effects of thermal acclimation and latitude of origin on variation in cold tolerance. Increased cold tolerance correlates with decreased rates of oxygen consumption and blood lactate concentration (a proxy for oxygen limitation), suggesting elevated performance is associated with improved oxygen economy during cold exposure. Consistent with these results, co‐expression modules associated with blood lactate concentration are enriched for functions associated with blood circulation, coagulation and clotting. Expression of these modules correlates with thermal acclimation and latitude of origin. Our findings support the oxygen and capacity‐limited thermal tolerance hypothesis as a potential contributor to variation in reptilian cold tolerance. Moreover, differences in gene expression suggest regulation of the blood coagulation cascade may play an important role in reptilian cold tolerance and may be the target of natural selection in populations inhabiting colder environments.     

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms,breeding success,and population growth rate in a long‐lived Antarctic seabird

Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985–2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state‐dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.     

Diversity and endemism in Rotifera: a review,and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Keratella</Emphasis> Bory de St Vincent

We confront patterns in the chorology and diversity of freshwater and limnoterrestrial Rotifera with predictions following from the recently revived ubiquity theorem on the distribution of microscopic organisms. Notwithstanding a strong taxonomic impediment and lack of data, both bdelloid and monogonont rotifers appear to conform to the hypothesis’ predictions that local diversity is relatively high compared to global diversity and that cosmopolitism is important. To the contrary, however, a latitudinal diversity gradient is obvious, and endemicity is present, and exhibits diverse patterns. This is illustrated by the case of Keratella rotifers, in which we identify purported relict endemicity hotspots in the east Palaearctic (China) and in temperate and cold regions of the southern hemisphere, and a recent radiation in North America. The apparent paradox may result from an antagonism between rotifer’s high population sizes and presence of potentially highly efficient propagules, versus pre-emption of habitats and local adaptation by resident populations, specific dispersal ability, and ecological and geographical factors. We conclude that distribution patterns of microscopic organisms, as represented by rotifers, most likely span the whole range of alternatives, from full cosmopolitanism to local endemism, and suggest that studying this diversity is more productive to come to an understanding of their chorology and diversity. Special Issue: Protist diversity and geographic distribution. Guest editor: W. Foissner.     

A novel and high-throughput approach to assess photosynthetic thermal tolerance of kelp using chlorophyll α fluorometry

Foundation seaweed species are experiencing widespread declines and localized extinctions due to increased instability of sea surface temperature. Characterizing temperature thresholds are useful for predicting patterns of change and identifying species most vulnerable to extremes. Existing methods for characterizing seaweed thermal tolerance produce diverse metrics and are often time-consuming, making comparisons between species and techniques difficult, hindering insight into global patterns of change. Using three kelp species, we adapted a high-throughput method – previously used in terrestrial plant thermal biology – for use on kelps. This method employs temperature-dependent fluorescence (T–F₀) curves under heating or cooling regimes to determine the critical temperature (T_crit) of photosystem II (PSII), i.e., the breakpoint between slow and fast rise fluorescence response to changing temperature, enabling rapid assays of photosynthetic thermal tolerance using a standardized metric. This method enables characterization of T_crit for up to 48 samples per two-hour assay, demonstrating the capacity of T–F₀ curves for high-throughput assays of thermal tolerance. Temperature-dependent fluorescence curves and their derived metric, T_crit, may offer a timely and powerful new method for the field of phycology, enabling characterization and comparison of photosynthetic thermal tolerance of seaweeds across many populations, species, and biomes.     

Thermal limits of leaf metabolism across biomes

High‐temperature tolerance in plants is important in a warming world, with extreme heat waves predicted to increase in frequency and duration, potentially leading to lethal heating of leaves. Global patterns of high‐temperature tolerance are documented in animals, but generally not in plants, limiting our ability to assess risks associated with climate warming. To assess whether there are global patterns in high‐temperature tolerance of leaf metabolism, we quantified T_crit (high temperature where minimal chlorophyll a fluorescence rises rapidly and thus photosystem II is disrupted) and T_max (temperature where leaf respiration in darkness is maximal, beyond which respiratory function rapidly declines) in upper canopy leaves of 218 plant species spanning seven biomes. Mean site‐based T_crit values ranged from 41.5 °C in the Alaskan arctic to 50.8 °C in lowland tropical rainforests of Peruvian Amazon. For T_max, the equivalent values were 51.0 and 60.6 °C in the Arctic and Amazon, respectively. T_crit and T_max followed similar biogeographic patterns, increasing linearly (?8 °C) from polar to equatorial regions. Such increases in high‐temperature tolerance are much less than expected based on the 20 °C span in high‐temperature extremes across the globe. Moreover, with only modest high‐temperature tolerance despite high summer temperature extremes, species in mid‐latitude (~20–50°) regions have the narrowest thermal safety margins in upper canopy leaves; these regions are at the greatest risk of damage due to extreme heat‐wave events, especially under conditions when leaf temperatures are further elevated by a lack of transpirational cooling. Using predicted heat‐wave events for 2050 and accounting for possible thermal acclimation of T_crit and T_max, we also found that these safety margins could shrink in a warmer world, as rising temperatures are likely to exceed thermal tolerance limits. Thus, increasing numbers of species in many biomes may be at risk as heat‐wave events become more severe with climate change.