Patterns of land use,extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940–2012) and productivity (1990–2012) in Brazil using a new high‐resolution (approximately 1 km²) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision‐making.     

Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land‐use patterns: an analysis of the 1975–2006 period

Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975–1996 and 1996–2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium‐resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land‐use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960–2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land‐use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land‐use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land‐use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center‐western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.     

Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets

Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land‐use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land‐use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land‐use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land‐use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region‐specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area‐based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.     

Biodiversity responses to land‐use and restoration in a global biodiversity hotspot: Ant communities in Brazilian Cerrado

Given that land‐use change is the main cause of global biodiversity decline, there is widespread interest in adopting land‐use practices that maintain high levels of biodiversity, and in restoring degraded land that previously had high biodiversity value. In this study, we use ant taxonomic and functional diversity to examine the effects of different land uses (agriculture, pastoralism, silviculture and conservation) and restoration practices on Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) biodiversity. We also examine the extent to which ant diversity and composition can be explained by vegetation attributes that apply across the full land management spectrum. We surveyed vegetation attributes and ant communities in five replicate plots of each of 13 land‐use and restoration treatments, including two types of native vegetation as reference sites: cerrado sensu stricto and cerradão. Several land‐use and restoration treatments had comparable plot richness to that of the native reference habitats. Ant species and functional composition varied systematically among land‐use treatments following a gradient from open habitats such as agricultural fields to forested sites. Tree basal area and grass cover were the strongest predictors of ant species richness. Losses in ant diversity were higher in land‐use systems that transform vegetation structure. Among productive systems, therefore, uncleared pastures and old pine plantations had similar species composition to that occurring in cerrado sensu stricto. Restoration techniques currently applied to sites that were previously Cerrado have focused on returning tree cover, and have failed to restore ant communities typical of savanna. To improve restoration outcomes for Cerrado biodiversity, greater attention needs to be paid to the re‐establishment and maintenance of the grass layer, which requires frequent fire. At the broader scale, conservation planning in agricultural landscapes, should recognize the value of land‐use mosaics and the risks of homogenization.     

Sixteen hundred years of increasing tree cover prior to modern deforestation in Southern Amazon and Central Brazilian savannas

Tropical ecosystems are under increasing pressure from land‐use change and deforestation. Changes in tropical forest cover are expected to affect carbon and water cycling with important implications for climatic stability at global scales. A major roadblock for predicting how tropical deforestation affects climate is the lack of baseline conditions (i.e., prior to human disturbance) of forest–savanna dynamics. To address this limitation, we developed a long‐term analysis of forest and savanna distribution across the Amazon–Cerrado transition of central Brazil. We used soil organic carbon isotope ratios as a proxy for changes in woody vegetation cover over time in response to fluctuations in precipitation inferred from speleothem oxygen and strontium stable isotope records. Based on stable isotope signatures and radiocarbon activity of organic matter in soil profiles, we quantified the magnitude and direction of changes in forest and savanna ecosystem cover. Using changes in tree cover measured in 83 different locations for forests and savannas, we developed interpolation maps to assess the coherence of regional changes in vegetation. Our analysis reveals a broad pattern of woody vegetation expansion into savannas and densification within forests and savannas for at least the past ~1,600 years. The rates of vegetation change varied significantly among sampling locations possibly due to variation in local environmental factors that constrain primary productivity. The few instances in which tree cover declined (7.7% of all sampled profiles) were associated with savannas under dry conditions. Our results suggest a regional increase in moisture and expansion of woody vegetation prior to modern deforestation, which could help inform conservation and management efforts for climate change mitigation. We discuss the possible mechanisms driving forest expansion and densification of savannas directly (i.e., increasing precipitation) and indirectly (e.g., decreasing disturbance) and suggest future research directions that have the potential to improve climate and ecosystem models.     

Simulating Deforestation in Minas Gerais,Brazil, under Changing Government Policies and Socioeconomic Conditions

Agricultural expansion is causing deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, converting savanna and tropical dry forest to farmland, and in 2012, Brazil’s Forest Code was revised with the government reducing deforestation restrictions. Understanding the effects of policy change on rates and locations of natural ecosystem loss is imperative. In this paper, deforestation in Minas Gerais was simulated annually until 2020 using Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO). This system is a state-of-the-art land use and cover change (LUCC) model which incorporates government policy, landscape maps, and other biophysical and anthropogenic datasets. Three studied scenarios: (i) business as usual, (ii) increased deforestation, and (iii) decreased deforestation showed more transition to agriculture from shrubland compared to forests, and consistent locations for most deforestation. The probability of conversion to agriculture is strongly tied to areas with the smallest patches of original biome remaining. Increases in agricultural revenue are projected to continue with a loss of 25% of the remaining Cerrado land in the next decade if profit is maximized. The addition of biodiversity value as a tax on land sale prices, estimated at over $750,000,000 USD using the cost of extracting and maintaining current species ex-situ, can save more than 1 million hectares of shrubland with minimal effects on the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. With environmental policy determining rates of deforestation and economics driving the location of land clearing, site-specific protection or market accounting of externalities is needed to balance economic development and conservation.     

Effects of land cover on chemical characteristics of streams in the Cerrado region of Brazil

The Cerrado is the second largest Brazilian biome and contains the headwaters of three major hydrological basins in Brazil. In spite of the biological and ecological relevance of this biome, there is little information about how land use changes affect the chemistry of low-order streams in the Cerrado. To evaluate these effects streams that drain areas under natural, rural, and urban land cover were sampled near Brasília, Brazil. Water samples were collected between September 2004 and December 2006. Chemical concentrations generally followed the pattern of Urban > Rural > Natural. Median conductivity of stream water of 21.6 (interquartile: 22.7) ??S/cm in urban streams was three and five-fold greater relative to rural and natural areas, respectively. In the wet season, despite of increasing discharge, concentration of many solutes were higher, particularly in rural and natural streams. Streams also presented higher total dissolved N (TDN) loads from natural to rural and urban although DIN:DON ratios did not differ significantly. In natural and urban streams TDN was 80 and 77% dissolved organic N, respectively. These results indicate that alterations in land cover from natural to rural and urban are changing stream water chemistry in the Cerrado with increasing solute concentrations, in addition to increased TDN output in areas under urban cover, with potential effects on ecosystem function.     

Assessing the impacts of past and ongoing deforestation on rainfall patterns in South America

Despite recent advances in modeling forest–rainfall relationships, the current understanding of changes in observed rainfall patterns resulting from historical deforestation remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed how 40 years of deforestation has altered rainfall patterns in South America as well as how current Amazonian forest cover sustains rainfall. First, we develop a spatiotemporal neural network model to simulate rainfall as a function of vegetation and climate inputs in South America; second, we assess the rainfall effects of observed deforestation in South America during the periods 1982–2020 and 2000–2020; third, we assess the potential rainfall changes in the Amazon biome under two deforestation scenarios. We find that, on average, cumulative deforestation in South America from 1982 to 2020 has reduced rainfall over the period 2016–2020 by 18% over deforested areas, and by 9% over non-deforested areas across South America. We also find that more recent deforestation, that is, from 2000 to 2020, has reduced rainfall over the period 2016–2020 by 10% over deforested areas and by 5% over non-deforested areas. Deforestation between 1982 and 2020 has led to a doubling in the area experiencing a minimum dry season of 4 months in the Amazon biome. Similarly, in the Cerrado region, there has been a corresponding doubling in the area with a minimum dry season of 7 months. These changes are compared to a hypothetical scenario where no deforestation occurred. Complete conversion of all Amazon forest land outside protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 36% and complete deforestation of all forest cover including protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 68%. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for effective conservation measures to safeguard both forest ecosystems and sustainable agricultural practices.     

Deforestation and Reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001–2010)

Forest cover change directly affects biodiversity, the global carbon budget, and ecosystem function. Within Latin American and the Caribbean region (LAC), many studies have documented extensive deforestation, but there are also many local studies reporting forest recovery. These contrasting dynamics have been largely attributed to demographic and socio‐economic change. For example, local population change due to migration can stimulate forest recovery, while the increasing global demand for food can drive agriculture expansion. However, as no analysis has simultaneously evaluated deforestation and reforestation from the municipal to continental scale, we lack a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of these processes. We overcame this limitation by producing wall‐to‐wall, annual maps of change in woody vegetation and other land‐cover classes between 2001 and 2010 for each of the 16,050 municipalities in LAC, and we used nonparametric Random Forest regression analyses to determine which environmental or population variables best explained the variation in woody vegetation change. Woody vegetation change was dominated by deforestation (?541,835 km²), particularly in the moist forest, dry forest, and savannas/shrublands biomes in South America. Extensive areas also recovered woody vegetation (+362,430 km²), particularly in regions too dry or too steep for modern agriculture. Deforestation in moist forests tended to occur in lowland areas with low population density, but woody cover change was not related to municipality‐scale population change. These results emphasize the importance of quantitating deforestation and reforestation at multiple spatial scales and linking these changes with global drivers such as the global demand for food.     

Evapotranspiration over the Grassland Field in the Liudaogou Basin of the Loess Plateau,China

Severe desertification on the Loess Plateau of China since the 17th century as a result of improper land use has caused critical soil erosion and water shortages in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. To prevent further soil erosion, it is very important to cover the bare land surface with natural vegetation. Evapotranspiration (ET) over the grassland (Stipa bungeana) in Shenmu County of the Loess Plateau during the growing season is estimated to be about 1 mm day^–1, and the ratio of ET to reference Evapotranspiration (ET/ET₀) is below 0.3. Evaporation from the bare soil surface simulated by a three-layer soil model is less than ET; that is, ET is 1.5 times greater than evaporation from the soil surface during the growing season.This study examines the relationships among the surface resistance r_s in the Penman–Monteith equation, solar radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, temperature, wind speed, and soil water content. Surface resistance (r_s) is strongly affected by the vapor-pressure deficit and soil water content.     

Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance

In order to better assess the role of agriculture within the global climate‐vegetation system, we present a model of the managed planetary land surface, Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land (LPJmL), which simulates biophysical and biogeochemical processes as well as productivity and yield of the most important crops worldwide, using a concept of crop functional types (CFTs). Based on the LPJ‐Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, LPJmL simulates the transient changes in carbon and water cycles due to land use, the specific phenology and seasonal CO₂ fluxes of agricultural‐dominated areas, and the production of crops and grazing land. It uses 13 CFTs (11 arable crops and two managed grass types), with specific parameterizations of phenology connected to leaf area development. Carbon is allocated daily towards four carbon pools, one being the yield‐bearing storage organs. Management (irrigation, treatment of residues, intercropping) can be considered in order to capture their effect on productivity, on soil organic carbon and on carbon extracted from the ecosystem. For transient simulations for the 20th century, a global historical land use data set was developed, providing the annual cover fraction of the 13 CFTs, rain‐fed and/or irrigated, within 0.5° grid cells for the period 1901–2000, using published data on land use, crop distributions and irrigated areas. Several key results are compared with observations. The simulated spatial distribution of sowing dates for temperate cereals is comparable with the reported crop calendars. The simulated seasonal canopy development agrees better with satellite observations when actual cropland distribution is taken into account. Simulated yields for temperate cereals and maize compare well with FAO statistics. Monthly carbon fluxes measured at three agricultural sites also compare well with simulations. Global simulations indicate a ∼24% (respectively ∼10%) reduction in global vegetation (respectively soil) carbon due to agriculture, and 6–9 Pg C of yearly harvested biomass in the 1990s. In contrast to simulations of the potential natural vegetation showing the land biosphere to be an increasing carbon sink during the 20th century, LPJmL simulates a net carbon source until the 1970s (due to land use), and a small sink (mostly due to changing climate and CO₂) after 1970. This is comparable with earlier LPJ simulations using a more simple land use scheme, and within the uncertainty range of estimates in the 1980s and 1990s. The fluxes attributed to land use change compare well with Houghton's estimates on the land use related fluxes until the 1970s, but then they begin to diverge, probably due to the different rates of deforestation considered. The simulated impacts of agriculture on the global water cycle for the 1990s are∼5% (respectively∼20%) reduction in transpiration (respectively interception), and∼44% increase in evaporation. Global runoff, which includes a simple irrigation scheme, is practically not affected.     

西北干旱区河西走廊荒漠绿洲土地覆盖类型与蒸散的关系研究——基于Landsat 8和ZY3数据融合

蒸散是地表水热平衡的重要分量,也是陆地生态过程与水文过程之间的重要纽带,尤其在干旱区地-气相互作用、碳循环、水循环等过程所包含的物质与能量交换中占有极其重要的地位。基于Landsat 8遥感影像和资源三号影像(ZY3)的高分辨率植被信息,利用SEBS模型对西北干旱区河西走廊中段临泽绿洲北部区域地表蒸散量进行了估算,并用绿洲内部和绿洲-荒漠过渡带两个通量塔涡动相关数据对模型进行评估,分析了不同土地覆盖类型对蒸散量空间分布的影响。结果表明:(1)SEBS模型模拟值与实测日蒸散值之间拟合效果较好,且在均一地表时(绿洲农田区)估算精度更高(R~2=0.96,P0.001),RMSE、MAE分别为0.84 mm/d、0.56 mm/d;(2)从季节变化来看蒸散量与作物生长密切相关,夏季灌溉和降雨使得研究区水分充足,植被覆盖度高,蒸散量相应增加,在绿洲地区可达5.95 mm/d,而冬季最小仅为0.52 mm/d;(3)从蒸散量的空间变化来看,水体蒸散值最大,其余依次为农田、防护林、裸地和灌木丛,说明除水体外,随着植被覆盖的增大,蒸散量也逐渐增加。通过ZY3影像的高分辨率植被信息与Landsat 8影像热红外数据融合,提高了SEBS模型对该区域蒸散量的模拟效果,增进了我们对绿洲下垫面与大气间水热交换规律、水文过程、生态-水文相互作用的深入理解。     

A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model‐based assessments

The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to differences between estimates, and illustrate the consequences of applying different estimates in model‐based assessments of land‐use change. The review estimates a range from 1552 to 5131 Mha, which includes 1550 Mha that is already cropland. Hence, the lowest estimates indicate that there is almost no room for cropland expansion, while the highest estimates indicate that cropland could potentially expand to over three times its current area. Differences can largely be attributed to institutional assumptions, i.e. which land covers/uses (e.g. forests or grasslands) are societally or governmentally allowed to convert to cropland, while there was little variation in biophysical assumptions. Estimates based on comparable assumptions showed a variation of up to 84%, which originated mainly from different underlying data sources. On the basis of this synthesis of the assumptions underlying these estimates, we constructed a high, a medium, and a low estimate of cropland availability that are representative of the range of estimates in the reviewed studies. We apply these estimates in a land‐change model to illustrate the consequences on cropland expansion and intensification as well as deforestation. While uncertainty in cropland availability is hardly addressed in global land‐use change assessments, the results indicate a large range of estimates with important consequences for model‐based assessments.     

Do arthropod assemblages display globally consistent responses to intensified agricultural land use and management?

Aim To determine whether arthropod richness and abundance for combined taxa, feeding guilds and broad taxonomic groups respond in a globally consistent manner to a range of agricultural land‐use and management intensification scenarios. Location Mixed land‐use agricultural landscapes, globally. Methods We performed a series of meta‐analyses using arthropod richness and abundance data derived from the published literature. Richness and abundance were compared among land uses that commonly occur in agricultural landscapes and that represent a gradient of increasing intensification. These included land‐use comparisons, such as wooded native vegetation compared with improved pasture, and a management comparison, reduced‐input cropping compared with conventional cropping. Data were analysed using three different meta‐analytical techniques, including a simple vote counting method and a formal fixed‐effects/random‐effects meta‐analysis. Results Arthropod richness was significantly higher in areas of less intensive land use. The decline in arthropod richness was greater between native vegetation and agricultural land uses than among different agricultural land uses. These patterns were evident for all taxa combined, predators and decomposers, but not herbivorous taxa. Overall, arthropod abundance was greater in native vegetation than in agricultural lands and under reduced‐input cropping compared with conventional cropping. Again, this trend was largely mirrored by predators and decomposers, but not herbivores. Main conclusions The greater arthropod richness found in native vegetation relative to agricultural land types indicates that in production landscapes still containing considerable native vegetation, retention of that vegetation may well be the most effective method of conserving arthropod biodiversity. Conversely, in highly intensified agricultural landscapes with little remaining native vegetation, the employment of reduced‐input crop management and the provision of relatively low‐intensity agricultural land uses, such as pasture, may prove effective in maintaining arthropod diversity, and potentially in promoting functionally important groups such as predators and decomposers.     

Legal deforestation can jeopardize plant diversity conservation in an agricultural frontier in the brazilian Cerrado: a spatial explicit contribution to Santana and Simon (2022)

The work of Santana and Simon (2022) provides a unique database on angiosperm flora in the Cerrado?s agricultural frontier (known as MATOPIBA), revealing that its plant biodiversity remains largely unknown. However, ongoing deforestation combined with areas that can still be legally deforested, has the potential to jeopardize plant conservation in the region if measures to prevent land clearing are not adopted. Based on the databased provided by the authors, high resolution vegetation maps and land tenure data, it is demonstrated that almost 5 Mha of Cerrado vegetation has been converted from 1990 to 2020, and further 10.1 Mha can still be legally cleared, which 1.58 Mha in small, 2.25 Mha in medium and 6.27 Mha in large farms. This has practical implications for biodiversity conservation in the MATOPIBA and, thus, the clearing of “areas where populations of endemic and threatened”, as well as rare, species occur should be avoided. In general, the whole region should be better sampled in order to fill the knowledge gap on its plant diversity, but certain areas could be prioritized to optimize sampling efforts and provide botanical information that inform conservation plans with the objective to avoid the extinction of endemic, threatened and unknown species. Proactive conservation measures are yet palliative because the current environmental legislation still allows the suppression of large extensions of Cerrado vegetation – likely to be converted to mechanized agriculture as soon as it becomes profitable.

     

Estimating the ecological status and change of riparian zones in Andalusia assessed by multi-temporal AVHHR datasets

Following the European Commission's Water Framework Directive all surface waters in EU's Member States must reach a good status by 2015. The evaluation of this status will be partly based on ecological criteria, such as the hydro-morphological quality criteria which also evaluate the structure and condition of the riparian zone. Riparian zones with undisturbed or nearly undisturbed condition are given high-ecological status. The agri-environmental measures in the EU promote an extensive use of land to protect the farmed environment and its biodiversity. Recent studies in Andalusia and elsewhere suggest that extensification leads to riparian zones with higher ecological status compared to intensively used areas. We suggest that extensification and thus better ecological status of the riparian zone can be partly approximated by the amount of vegetation permanently present on the area. For this the so-called permanent vegetation fraction was derived from a multi-temporal advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) dataset and was used (1) to classify the ecological status of the riparian zone into two classes, favourable and unfavourable, and (2) to assess the effect of agricultural practices on these areas. The classification was validated by field observations in the Guadalquivir river basin while detailed information on farming practices helped to assess the effect of agriculture on the riparian zone. The assessment was carried out in olive land cover because erosion control in olive cultivations is the most widely implemented measure in Andalusia. Results suggest that the remotely sensed permanent vegetation fraction is a good indicator of the favourable and unfavourable ecological status of the riparian zone. Furthermore, extensification of agricultural practices expressed in terms of increasing permanent vegetation cover was shown to have positive effect on the riparian zone as opposed to areas where no measures were implemented.     

Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty years

Human modification of the landscape potentially affects exchanges of energy and water between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. This study develops a possible scenario for land cover in the year 2050 based on results from the IMAGE 2 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model, which projects land‐cover changes in response to demographic and economic activity. We use the land‐cover scenario as a surface boundary condition in a biophysically‐based land‐surface model coupled to a general circulation model for a 15‐years simulation with prescribed sea surface temperature and compare with a control run using current land cover. To assess the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenic land‐cover change relative to the sensitivity to decadal‐scale interannual variations in vegetation density, we also carry out two additional simulations using observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from relatively low (1982–83) and high (1989–90) years to describe the seasonal phenology of the vegetation. In the past several centuries, large‐scale land‐cover change occurred primarily in temperate latitudes through conversion of forests and grassland to highly productive cropland and pasture. Several studies in the literature indicate that past changes in surface climate resulting from this conversion had a cooling effect owing to changes in vegetation morphology (increased albedo). In contrast, this study indicates that future land‐cover change, likely to occur predominantly in the tropics and subtropics, has a warming effect governed by physiological rather than morphological mechanisms. The physiological mechanism is to reduce carbon assimilation and consequently latent relative to sensible heat flux resulting in surface temperature increases up to 2 °C and drier hydrologic conditions in locations where land cover was altered in the experiment. In addition, in contrast to an observed decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over land expected with greenhouse warming, results here suggest that future land‐cover conversion in tropics could increase the DTR resulting from decreased evaporative cooling during the daytime. For grid cells with altered land cover, the sensitivity of surface temperature to future anthropogenic land‐cover change is generally within the range induced by decadal‐scale interannual variability in vegetation density in temperate latitudes but up to 1.5 °C warmer in the tropics.     

Modelling climate response to historical land cover change

In order to estimate the effect of historical land cover change (deforestation) on climate, we perform a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity – CLIMBER-2. We focus on the biophysical effect of the land cover change on climate and do not explicitly account for the biogeochemical effect. A dynamic scenario of deforestation during the last millennium is formulated based on the rates of land conversion to agriculture. The deforestation scenario causes a global cooling of 0.35 °C with a more notable cooling of the northern hemisphere (0.5 °C). The cooling is most pronounced in the northern middle and high latitudes, especially during the spring season. To compare the effect of deforestation on climate with other forcings, climate responses to the changing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and solar irradiance are also analysed. When all three factors are taken into account, dynamics of northern hemisphere temperature during the last 300 years within the model are generally in agreement with the observed (reconstructed) temperature trend. We conclude that the impact of historical land cover changes on climate is comparable with the impact of the other climate forcings and that land cover forcing is important for reproducing historical climate change.     

Compliance to Brazil's Forest Code will not protect biodiversity and ecosystem services

In striking contrast to heartening events in the adjacent Amazon, Brazil's Cerrado biome has seen continued deforestation over the past decade. Though approved in 2012, no study evaluated the impacts of new Brazilian Forest Code (FC) revision on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we report the first assessment of the likely loss and gain in biodiversity and ecosystem services expected if the FC is properly enforced across 200 million hectares of the Cerrado. We also discuss the challenges associated to compliance with the law and present opportunities for conservation. Establishing restoration programmes in private properties with currently less native vegetation than required by the FC could create habitat for 25% more threatened species than now found in these places and could also increase water security and carbon stock in 56.6 MtC. More important, trading environmental reserve quotas coupled with the strategic expansion of protected areas on private and public land could definitely rescue the Cerrado from the brink.     

Potential for carbon sequestration in European soils: preliminary estimates for five scenarios using results from long-term experiments

One of the main options for carbon mitigation identified by the IPCC is the sequestration of carbon in soils. In this paper we use statistical relationships derived from European long-term experiments to explore the potential for carbon sequestration in soils in the European Union. We examine five scenarios, namely (a) the amendment of arable soils with animal manure, (b) the amendment of arable soils with sewage sludge, (c) the incorporation of cereal straw into the soils in which it was grown, (d) the afforestation of surplus arable land through natural woodland regeneration, and (e) extensification of agriculture through ley-arable farming. Our calculations suggest only limited potential to increase soil carbon stocks over the next century by addition of animal manure, sewage sludge or straw (Þbl 15 Tg C y^–1), but greater potential through extensification of agriculture (≈ 40 Tg C y^–1) or through the afforestation of surplus arable land (≈ 50 Tg C y^–1). We estimate that extensification could increase the total soil carbon stock of the European Union by 17%. Afforestation of 30% of present arable land would increase soil carbon stocks by about 8% over a century and would substitute up to 30 Tg C y^–1 of fossil fuel carbon if the wood were used as biofuel. However, even the afforestation scenario, with the greatest potential for carbon mitigation, can sequester only 0.8% of annual global anthropogenic CO₂-carbon. Our figures suggest that, although efforts in temperate agriculture can contribute to global carbon mitigation, the potential is small compared to that available through reducing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions by halting tropical and sub-tropical deforestation or by reducing fossil fuel burning.