Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes

Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions—both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)—where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework—which brings together SDM and landscape metrics—can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional.     

Genetic variation in blue whales in the eastern pacific: implication for taxonomy and use of common wintering grounds

Many aspects of blue whale biology are poorly understood. Some of the gaps in our knowledge, such as those regarding their basic taxonomy and seasonal movements, directly affect our ability to monitor and manage blue whale populations. As a step towards filling in some of these gaps, microsatellite and mtDNA sequence analyses were conducted on blue whale samples from the Southern Hemisphere, the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) and the northeast Pacific. The results indicate that the ETP is differentially used by blue whales from the northern and southern eastern Pacific, with the former showing stronger affinity to the region off Central America known as the Costa Rican Dome, and the latter favouring the waters of Peru and Ecuador. Although the pattern of genetic variation throughout the Southern Hemisphere is compatible with the recently proposed subspecies status of Chilean blue whales, some discrepancies remain between catch lengths and lengths from aerial photography, and not all blue whales in Chilean waters can be assumed to be of this type. Also, the range of the proposed Chilean subspecies, which extends to the Galapagos region of the ETP, at least seasonally, perhaps should include the Costa Rican Dome and the eastern North Pacific as well.     

Beyond the landscape: Resistance modelling infers physical and behavioural gene flow barriers to a mobile carnivore across a metropolitan area

Urbanization affects key aspects of wildlife ecology. Dispersal in urban wildlife species may be impacted by geographical barriers but also by a species’ inherent behavioural variability. There are no functional connectivity analyses using continuous individual‐based sampling across an urban‐rural continuum that would allow a thorough assessment of the relative importance of physical and behavioural dispersal barriers. We used 16 microsatellite loci to genotype 374 red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) from the city of Berlin and surrounding rural regions in Brandenburg in order to study genetic structure and dispersal behaviour of a mobile carnivore across the urban‐rural landscape. We assessed functional connectivity by applying an individual‐based landscape genetic optimization procedure. Three commonly used genetic distance measures yielded different model selection results, with only the results of an eigenvector‐based multivariate analysis reasonably explaining genetic differentiation patterns. Genetic clustering methods and landscape resistance modelling supported the presence of an urban population with reduced dispersal across the city border. Artificial structures (railways, motorways) served as main dispersal corridors within the cityscape, yet urban foxes avoided densely built‐up areas. We show that despite their ubiquitous presence in urban areas, their mobility and behavioural plasticity, foxes were affected in their dispersal by anthropogenic presence. Distinguishing between man‐made structures and sites of human activity, rather than between natural and artificial structures, is thus essential for better understanding urban fox dispersal. This differentiation may also help to understand dispersal of other urban wildlife and to predict how behaviour can shape population genetic structure beyond physical barriers.     

Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate.     

Watershed characteristics shape the landscape genetics of brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) in shallow prairie lakes

Investigating the consequences of landscape features on population genetic patterns is increasingly important to elucidate the ecological factors governing connectivity between populations and predicting the evolutionary consequences of landscapes. Small prairie lakes in Alberta, Canada, and the brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) that inhabit them, provide a unique aquatic system whereby populations are highly isolated from one another. These heterogeneous and extreme environments are prone to winterkills, an event whereby most of the fish die and frequent bottlenecks occur. In this study, we characterized the genetic population structure of brook stickleback among several lakes, finding that the species is hierarchically influenced by within‐lake characteristics in small‐scale watersheds. Landscape genetic analyses of the role of spatial features found support for basin characteristics associated with genetic diversity and bottlenecks in 20% of the sampled lakes. These results suggest that brook stickleback population genetic patterns may be driven, at least in part, by ecological processes that accelerate genetic drift and landscape patterns associated with reduced dispersal. Collectively, these results reinforce the potential importance of connectivity in the maintenance of genetic diversity, especially in fragmented landscapes.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Dealing with uncertainty in landscape genetic resistance models: a case of three co‐occurring marsupials

Landscape genetics lacks explicit methods for dealing with the uncertainty in landscape resistance estimation, which is particularly problematic when sample sizes of individuals are small. Unless uncertainty can be quantified, valuable but small data sets may be rendered unusable for conservation purposes. We offer a method to quantify uncertainty in landscape resistance estimates using multimodel inference as an improvement over single model‐based inference. We illustrate the approach empirically using co‐occurring, woodland‐preferring Australian marsupials within a common study area: two arboreal gliders (Petaurus breviceps, and Petaurus norfolcensis) and one ground‐dwelling antechinus (Antechinus flavipes). First, we use maximum‐likelihood and a bootstrap procedure to identify the best‐supported isolation‐by‐resistance model out of 56 models defined by linear and non‐linear resistance functions. We then quantify uncertainty in resistance estimates by examining parameter selection probabilities from the bootstrapped data. The selection probabilities provide estimates of uncertainty in the parameters that drive the relationships between landscape features and resistance. We then validate our method for quantifying uncertainty using simulated genetic and landscape data showing that for most parameter combinations it provides sensible estimates of uncertainty. We conclude that small data sets can be informative in landscape genetic analyses provided uncertainty can be explicitly quantified. Being explicit about uncertainty in landscape genetic models will make results more interpretable and useful for conservation decision‐making, where dealing with uncertainty is critical.     

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th‐century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st‐century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high‐resolution topography and fine‐scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso‐ and microclimate scales. We show that climate‐only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th‐century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st‐century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.     

Jaguar Panthera onca Habitat Modeling in Landscapes Facing High Land‐use Transformation Pressure—Findings from Mato Grosso,Brazil

The modeling of top predators' habitats and the understanding of their environmental requirements in landscapes facing high land‐use transformation pressure have long‐standing importance for the development of conservation strategies. Multi‐distance spatial cluster analysis and logistic regression with environmental weighting for pseudo‐absence designation were applied to understand spatial patterns of jaguar occurrence in Mato Grosso state (Central Western Brazil). This location has been under intense deforestation pressure since the 1970s and is historically one of the most important jaguar habitats in the world. By using a model of five independent variables, we were able to achieve a 73.2 percent success rate of case/non‐case classification and indicate not only a general loss of habitat suitability, but also an increasing interruption of potential migration corridors in the state. Our analysis on a regional scale demonstrates the importance of forest and savannah woodland for jaguar habitat maintenance in the Mato Grosso state. The jaguar species demonstrates a sensitivity to landscape fragmentation, which can be parameterized for improved model building by metrics such as edge density and patch size. Comparisons with previous studies in South America show that parameter selection for jaguar habitat modeling is highly scale‐dependent and that habitat suitability in partially transformed landscapes could be maintained if fragmentation is minimized. Recent land‐use transformation, however, has significantly weakened the conservation status of the Pantanal‐Amazon corridor.     

Global warming will reshuffle the areas of high prevalence and richness of three genera of avian blood parasites

The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within‐host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host‐parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host‐parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.     

Climate and landscape influence on indicators of lake carbon cycling through spatial patterns in dissolved organic carbon

Freshwater ecosystems are strongly influenced by both climate and the surrounding landscape, yet the specific pathways connecting climatic and landscape drivers to the functioning of lake ecosystems are poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that the links that exist between spatial patterns in climate and landscape properties and the spatial variation in lake carbon (C) cycling at regional scales are at least partly mediated by the movement of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the aquatic component of the landscape. We assembled a set of indicators of lake C cycling (bacterial respiration and production, chlorophyll a, production to respiration ratio, and partial pressure of CO₂), DOC concentration and composition, and landscape and climate characteristics for 239 temperate and boreal lakes spanning large environmental and geographic gradients across seven regions. There were various degrees of spatial structure in climate and landscape features that were coherent with the regionally structured patterns observed in lake DOC and indicators of C cycling. These different regions aligned well, albeit nonlinearly along a mean annual temperature gradient; whereas there was a considerable statistical effect of climate and landscape properties on lake C cycling, the direct effect was small and the overall effect was almost entirely overlapping with that of DOC concentration and composition. Our results suggest that key climatic and landscape signals are conveyed to lakes in part via the movement of terrestrial DOC to lakes and that DOC acts both as a driver of lake C cycling and as a proxy for other external signals.     

Genetic diversity and gene flow in a rare New Zealand skink despite fragmented habitat in a volcanic landscape

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation often restricts gene flow and results in small populations that are at risk of inbreeding. However, some endangered species naturally occupy patchy habitat where local population extinction and recolonization are normal. We investigated population fragmentation in the range‐restricted New Zealand small‐scaled skink (Oligosoma microlepis), documenting changes in habitat occupancy and analyzing mitochondrial, microsatellite, and morphological variation sampled across the geographical range of the species (approximately 100 km²). Small‐scaled skinks have a strong preference for rocky outcrops that exist in a mosaic of other habitat types. A metapopulation structure was indicated by both local extinction and colonization of new sites. We found relatively high mtDNA nucleotide site diversity within this narrow range (π = 0.004; 16S), evidence of inter‐patch gene flow, and no statistical support for inbreeding. Gene flow was limited by geographical distance, although the existence of pasture between habitat patches apparently has not prevented skink dispersal. Generalized linear models indicated an association between body size and location suggesting a local environmental influence on phenotype. Prior to human‐induced habitat modification, native forest probably separated preferred sites and, less than 2000 years ago, volcanic activity devastated much of the area currently occupied by O. microlepis. This skink appears able to re‐establish populations if other human‐linked factors such as agricultural intensification and introduced predators are limited. Although in contrast to expectations for a scarce and localized species living in a highly modified landscape, this lizard may have previously adapted to a dynamic, mosaic environment mediated by volcanism.     

Climate and geochemistry as drivers of eucalypt diversification in Australia

Eucalypts cover most of Australia. Here, we investigate the relative contribution of climate and geochemistry to the distribution and diversity of eucalypts. Using geostatistics, we estimate major element concentrations, pH, and electrical conductivity at sites where eucalypts have been recorded. We compare the median predicted geochemistry and reported substrate for individual species that appear associated with extreme conditions; this provides a partial evaluation of the predictions. We generate a site‐by‐species matrix by aggregating observations to the centroids of 100‐km‐wide grid cells, calculate diversity indices, and use numerical ecology methods (ordination, variation partitioning) to investigate the ecology of eucalypts and their response to climatic and geochemical gradients. We find that β‐diversity coincides with variations in climatic and geochemical patterns. Climate and geochemistry together account for less than half of the variation in eucalypt species assemblages across Australia but for greater than 80% in areas of high species richness. Climate is more important than geochemistry in explaining eucalypts species distribution and change in assemblages across Australia as a whole but there are correlations between the two sets of environmental variables. Many individual eucalypt species and entire taxonomic sections (Aromatica, Longistylus of subgenus Eucalyptus, Dumaria, and Liberivalvae of subgenus Symphyomyrtus) have distributions affected strongly by geochemistry. We conclude that eucalypt diversity is driven by steep geochemical gradients that have arisen as climate patterns have fluctuated over Australia over the Cenozoic, generally aridifying since the Miocene. The diversification of eucalypts across Australia is thus an excellent example of co‐evolution of landscapes and biota in space and time and challenges accepted notions of macroecology.     

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Adequate connectivity between discontinuous habitat patches is crucial for the persistence of metapopulations across space and time. Loss of landscape connectivity is often a direct result of fragmentation caused by human activities but also can be caused indirectly through anthropogenic climate change. Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) are widely dispersed across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and rely on sea ice to move seasonally between island habitats throughout their range. Seasonal connectivity provided by sea ice is necessary to maintain genetic diversity and to facilitate dispersal and recolonization of areas from which caribou have been extirpated. We used least‐cost path analysis and circuit theory to model connectivity across Peary caribou range, and future climate projections to investigate how this connectivity might be affected by a warming climate. Further, we used measures of current flow centrality to estimate the role of High Arctic islands in maintaining connectivity between Peary caribou populations and to identify and prioritize those islands and linkages most important for conservation. Our results suggest that the Bathurst Island complex plays a critical role in facilitating connectivity between Peary caribou populations. Large islands, including Banks, Victoria, and Ellesmere have limited roles in connecting Peary caribou. Without rigorous greenhouse gas emission reductions our projections indicate that by 2100 all connectivity between the more southern Peary caribou populations will be lost for important spring and early‐winter movement periods. Continued connectivity across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and possibly Peary caribou persistence, ultimately hinges on global commitments to limit climate change. Our research highlights priority areas where, in addition to emission reductions, conservation efforts to maintain connectivity would be most effective.