Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land‐use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey‐resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites’ contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

Temporal response of soil organic carbon after grassland‐related land‐use change

The net flux of CO₂ exchanged with the atmosphere following grassland‐related land‐use change (LUC) depends on the subsequent temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Yet, the magnitude and timing of these dynamics are still unclear. We compiled a global data set of 836 paired‐sites to quantify temporal SOC changes after grassland‐related LUC. In order to discriminate between SOC losses from the initial ecosystem and gains from the secondary one, the post‐LUC time series of SOC data was combined with satellite‐based net primary production observations as a proxy of carbon input to the soil. Globally, land conversion from either cropland or forest into grassland leads to SOC accumulation; the reverse shows net SOC loss. The SOC response curves vary between different regions. Conversion of cropland to managed grassland results in more SOC accumulation than natural grassland recovery from abandoned cropland. We did not consider the biophysical variables (e.g., climate conditions and soil properties) when fitting the SOC turnover rate into the observation data but analyzed the relationships between the fitted turnover rate and these variables. The SOC turnover rate is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation (p < 0.05), but not with the clay fraction of soils (p > 0.05). Comparing our results with predictions from bookkeeping models, we found that bookkeeping models overestimate by 56% of the long‐term (100 years horizon) cumulative SOC emissions for grassland‐related LUC types in tropical and temperate regions since 2000. We also tested the spatial representativeness of our data set and calculated SOC response curves using the representative subset of sites in each region. Our study provides new insight into the impact grassland‐related LUC on the global carbon budget and sheds light on the potential of grassland conservation for climate mitigation.     

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land‐use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state‐of‐the‐art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.     

Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison

Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

全球变化与生态系统研究现状与展望

全球变化与生态系统研究是一个宏观与微观相互交叉、多学科相互渗透的前沿科学领域, 重点研究生态系统结构和功能对全球变化的响应及反馈作用, 其目标是实现人类对生态系统服务的可持续利用。《植物生态学报》的《全球变化与生态系统》专辑在对国内外全球变化研究进行历史回顾和综合分析的基础上, 总结了全球变化与生态系统研究的阶段性重大进展及存在的主要问题, 并对全球变化研究的前沿方向进行展望和建议。根据研究内容和对象, 该专辑系统地综述了不同全球变化因子, 包括CO₂和O₃浓度升高、气候变暖、降水格局改变、氮沉降增加、土地利用变化等对陆地植物生理生态、群落结构及生态系统功能等的影响以及全球变化对海洋生态系统的影响; 探讨生态系统关键过程以及生物多样性的变化; 在明确全球变化生态效应的基础上, 阐明这些影响对气候和环境变化的反馈机制, 为构筑全球变化的适应对策提供生态学理论基础。     

CO2 emissions from land‐use change affected more by nitrogen cycle,than by the choice of land‐cover data

The high uncertainty in land‐based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land‐use and land‐use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr^?1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr^?1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr^?1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr^?1 in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr^?1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr^?1 globally (mean across land‐cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land‐cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr^?1). While land‐cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.     

Comparative responses of termite functional and taxonomic diversity to land‐use change

1. While it is clear that land‐use change significantly impacts the taxonomic dimension of soil biodiversity, how the functional dimension responds to land‐use change is less well understood. 2. This study examined how the transformation of primary forests into rubber tree monocultures impacts individual termite species and how this change is reflected in termite taxonomic and functional α‐diversity (within site) and β‐diversity (among sites). 3. Overall, individual species responded strongly to land‐use change, whereby only 11 of the 27 species found were able to tolerate both habitats. These differences caused a 27% reduction in termite taxonomic richness and reduced taxonomic β‐diversity in rubber plantations compared with primary forests. The study also revealed that the forest conversion led to a shift in some termite species with smaller body size, shorter legs and smaller mandibular traits. Primary forests exhibited higher functional richness and functional β‐diversity of termite species, indicating that functional traits of termite species in rubber plantations are more evenly distributed. 4. The present study suggests that forest conversion does not merely decrease taxonomic diversity of termites, but also exerts functional trait filtering within some termite species. The results affirm the need for biodiversity assessments that combine taxonomic and functional indicators when monitoring the impact of land‐use change.     

Global‐change drivers of ecosystem functioning modulated by natural variability and saturating responses

Humans are altering global environment at an unprecedented rate through changes in biodiversity, climate, nitrogen cycle, and land use. To address their effects on ecosystem functioning, experiments most frequently explore one driver at a time and control as many confounding factors as possible. Yet, which driver exerts the largest influence on ecosystem functioning and whether their relative importance changes among systems remain unclear. We analyzed experiments in the Patagonian steppe that evaluated the aboveground net primary production (ANPP) response to manipulated gradients of species richness, precipitation, temperature, nitrogen fertilization (N), and grazing intensity. We compared the effect on ANPP relative to ambient conditions considering intensity and direction of manipulations for each driver. The ranking of responses to drivers with comparable manipulation intensity was as follows: biodiversity>grazing>precipitation>N. For a similar intensity of manipulation, the effect of biodiversity loss was 4.0, 3.6, and 1.5, times larger than N deposition, decreased precipitation, and increased grazing intensity. We interpreted our results considering two hypotheses. First, the response of ANPP to changes in precipitation and biodiversity is saturating, so we expected larger effects when the driver was reduced, relative to ambient conditions, than when it was increased. Experimental manipulations that reduced ambient levels had larger effects than those that increased them. Second, the sensitivity of ANPP to each driver is inversely related to the natural variability of the driver. In Patagonia, the ranking of natural variability of drivers is as follows: precipitation>grazing>temperature>biodiversity>N. So, in general, the ecosystem was most sensitive to drivers that varied the least. Comparable results from Cedar Creek (MN) support both hypotheses and suggest that sensitivity to drivers varies among ecosystem types. Given the importance of understanding ecosystem sensitivity to predict global‐change impacts, it is necessary to design new experiments located in regions with contrasting natural variability and that include the full range of drivers.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone, elevated CO2 and land use history on the carbon dynamics of northern hardwood forests

Temperate forests are affected by a wide variety of environmental factors that stem from human industrial and agricultural activities. In the north‐eastern US, important change agents include tropospheric ozone, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, elevated CO₂, and historical human land use. Although each of these has received attention for its effects on forest carbon dynamics, integrated analyses that examine their combined effects are rare. To examine the relative importance of all of these factors on current forest growth and carbon balances, we included them individually and in combination in a forest ecosystem model that was applied over the period of 1700–2000 under different scenarios of air pollution and land use history. Results suggest that historical increases in CO₂ and N deposition have stimulated forest growth and carbon uptake, but to different degrees following agriculture and timber harvesting. These differences resulted from the effects of each land use scenario on soil C and N pools and on the resulting degree of growth limitations by carbon vs. nitrogen. Including tropospheric ozone in the simulations offset a substantial portion of the increases caused by CO₂ and N deposition. This result is particularly relevant given that ozone pollution is widespread across much of the world and because broad‐scale spatial patterns of ozone are coupled with patterns of nitrogen oxide emissions. This was demonstrated across the study region by a significant correlation between ozone exposure and rates of N deposition and suggests that the reduction of N‐induced carbon sinks by ozone may be a common phenomenon in other regions. Collectively, the combined effects of all physical and chemical factors we addressed produced growth estimates that were surprisingly similar to estimates obtained in the absence of any form of disturbance. The implication of this result is that intact forests may show relatively little evidence of altered growth since preindustrial times despite substantial changes in their physical and chemical environment.     

Relative importance of long‐term changes in climate and land‐use on the phenology and abundance of legume crop specialist and generalist aphids

Abstract Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land-use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land-use, and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data. Effects of environmental and geographical variables on aphid annual abundance and spring migration dates were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We found that within the last four decades, aphids have advanced their spring migration by a month, mostly due to the increase in temperature early in the year, and their abundance decreased by half on average, presumably in response to a combination of factors. The influence of legume crop area decreased with the degree of specialization of the aphid species to such crops. The effect of geographical variation was high even when controlling for environmental variables, suggesting that many other spatially structured processes act on aphid population characteristics. Multifactorial analyses helped to partition the effects of different global change drivers. Climate and land-use changes have strong effects on aphid populations, with important implications for future agriculture. Additionally, trait-based response variation could have major consequences at the community scale.     

Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems

The main drivers of global environmental change (CO₂ enrichment, nitrogen deposition, climate, biotic invasions and land use) cause extinctions and alter species distributions, and recent evidence shows that they exert pervasive impacts on various antagonistic and mutualistic interactions among species. In this review, we synthesize data from 688 published studies to show that these drivers often alter competitive interactions among plants and animals, exert multitrophic effects on the decomposer food web, increase intensity of pathogen infection, weaken mutualisms involving plants, and enhance herbivory while having variable effects on predation. A recurrent finding is that there is substantial variability among studies in both the magnitude and direction of effects of any given GEC driver on any given type of biotic interaction. Further, we show that higher order effects among multiple drivers acting simultaneously create challenges in predicting future responses to global environmental change, and that extrapolating these complex impacts across entire networks of species interactions yields unanticipated effects on ecosystems. Finally, we conclude that in order to reliably predict the effects of GEC on community and ecosystem processes, the greatest single challenge will be to determine how biotic and abiotic context alters the direction and magnitude of GEC effects on biotic interactions.     

Anthropogenic disturbance and streams: land use and land‐use change affect stream ecosystems via multiple pathways

1. Ecosystems are strongly influenced by land use practices. However, identifying the mechanisms behind these influences is complicated by the many potential pathways (often indirect) between land use and ecosystems and by the long‐lasting effects of past land use. To support ecosystem restoration and conservation efforts, we need to better understand these indirect and lasting effects. 2. We constructed structural equation models (SEM) to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of contemporary (2002) land use (agriculture and development) and change in land use from 1952 to 2002 on present‐day streams (n = 190) in Maryland, U.S.A. Additional variables examined included site location, system size, altitude, per cent sand in soils, riparian condition, habitat quality, stream water NO₃‐N and benthic macroinvertebrate and fish measures of stream condition. Our first SEM (2002 Land Use) included the proportions of contemporary agriculture and development in catchments in the model. The second SEM (Land Use Change) included five measures of land use change (proportion agricultural in both times, developed in both times, agricultural in 1952 and developed in 2002, forested in 1952 and developed in 2002 and agricultural in 1952 and forested in 2002). 3. The data set fit both SEMs well. The 2002 Land Use model explained 71% of variation in NO₃‐N and 55%, 42% and 38% of variation in riffle quality, macroinvertebrate condition and fish condition, respectively. The Land Use Change model explained similar amounts of variation in NO₃‐N (R² = 0.72), riffle quality (R² = 0.57) and macroinvertebrate condition (R² = 0.44) but slightly more variation in fish condition (R² = 0.43). 4. Both models identified pathways through which landscape variables affect stream responses, including negative direct effects of latitude on macroinvertebrate and fish conditions and positive direct and indirect effects of altitude on NO₃‐N, riffle quality and macroinvertebrate and fish conditions. The 2002 Land Use model showed contemporary development and agriculture had positive total effects on NO₃‐N (both through direct pathways); contemporary development had negative effects on macroinvertebrate condition. The Land Use Change model showed that contemporary developed land that was forested in 1952 had no effects on NO₃‐N; current developed land that was developed or agricultural in 1952 showed positive effects on NO₃‐N. Forests that were agricultural in 1952 had negative effects on NO₃‐N, suggesting reduced NO₃‐N export with reforestation. The Land Use Change model also showed negative total effects of all types of contemporary developed land (developed, agricultural or forested in 1952) on benthic condition. Developed land that was forested in 1952 had negative effects on fish condition. Forest sites that were agricultural in 1952 had negative effects on fish and macroinvertebrate conditions, suggesting a long‐term imprint of abandoned agriculture in stream communities. 5. Our analyses (i) identified multiple indirect effects of contemporary land use on streams, (ii) showed that current land uses with different land use histories can exhibit different effects on streams and (iii) demonstrated an imprint of land use lasting >50 years. Knowledge of these indirect and long‐term effects of land use will help to conserve and restore streams.