Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft‐sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north‐westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8–7.3 km yr^?1 interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr^?1), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in benthic biodiversity.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion

Predictions of climate‐related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2–3.2 km yr^?1 over the next 50 years.     

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant–animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.     

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr^?1. The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.     

Patterns of climate‐induced density shifts of species: poleward shifts faster in northern boreal birds than in southern birds

Climate change has been shown to cause poleward range shifts of species. These shifts are typically demonstrated using presence–absence data, which can mask the potential changes in the abundance of species. Moreover, changes in the mean centre of weighted density of species are seldom examined, and comparisons between these two methods are even rarer. Here, we studied the change in the mean weighted latitude of density (MWLD) of 94 bird species in Finland, northern Europe, using data covering a north–south gradient of over 1000 km from the 1970s to the 2010s. The MWLD shifted northward on average 1.26 km yr^?1, and this shift was significantly stronger in northern species compared to southern species. These shifts can be related to climate warming during the study period, because the annual temperature had increased more in northern Finland (by 1.7 °C) than in southern Finland (by 1.4 °C), although direct causal links cannot be shown. Density shifts of species distributed over the whole country did not differ from shifts in species situated on the edge of the species range in southern and northern species. This means that density shifts occur both in the core and on the edge of species distribution. The species‐specific comparison of MWLD values with corresponding changes in the mean weighted latitude using presence–absence atlas data (MWL) revealed that the MWLD moved more slowly than the MWL in the atlas data in the southern species examined, but more rapidly in the northern species. Our findings highlight that population densities are also moving rapidly towards the poles and the use of presence–absence data can mask the shift of population densities. We encourage use of abundance data in studies considering the effects of climate change on biodiversity.     

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century

Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process‐based growth model 3‐PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40 000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution ≥70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200 m yr^?1 to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types.     

Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate‐driven species migrations

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1‐ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70–2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate‐driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr^?1 (95% CI = 0.0005–0.0132 °C yr^?1). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr^?1, migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction.     

Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat – assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change

By accelerating crop development, warming climates may result in mismatches between key sensitive growth stages and extreme climate events, with severe consequences for crop yield and food security. Using recent estimates of gene responses to vernalization and photoperiod in wheat, we modelled the flowering times of all ‘potential’ genotypes as influenced by the velocity of climate change across the Australian wheatbelt. In the period 1957–2010, seasonal increases in temperature of 0.012 °C yr^?1 were recorded and changed flowering time of a mid‐season wheat genotype by an average ?0.074 day yr^?1, with flowering ‘velocity’ of up to 0.95 km yr^?1 towards the coastal edges of the wheatbelt; this is an estimate of how quickly the given genotype would have to be ‘moved’ across the landscape to maintain its original flowering time. By 2030, these national changes are projected to accelerate by up to 3‐fold for seasonal temperature and by up to 5‐fold for flowering time between now and 2030, with average national shifts in flowering time of 0.33 and 0.41 day yr^?1 between baseline and the worst climate scenario tested for 2030 and 2050, respectively. Without new flowering alleles in commercial germplasm, the life cycle of wheat crops is predicted to shorten by 2 weeks by 2030 across the wheatbelt for the most pessimistic climate scenario. While current cultivars may be otherwise suitable for future conditions, they will flower earlier due to warmer temperatures. To allow earlier sowing to escape frost, heat and terminal drought, and to maintain current growing period of early‐sown wheat crops in the future, breeders will need to develop and/or introduce new genetic sources for later flowering, more so in the eastern part of the wheatbelt.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.     

Dynamic habitat suitability modelling reveals rapid poleward distribution shift in a mobile apex predator

Many taxa are undergoing distribution shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, detecting a climate signal in mobile species is difficult due to their wide‐ranging, patchy distributions, often driven by natural climate variability. For example, difficulties associated with assessing pelagic fish distributions have rendered fisheries management ill‐equipped to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, leaving pelagic species and ecosystems vulnerable. Here, we demonstrate the value of citizen science data for modelling the dynamic habitat suitability of a mobile pelagic predator (black marlin, Istiompax indica) within the south‐west Pacific Ocean. The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of our occurrence data set (n = 18 717), collected at high resolution (~1.85 km²), enabled identification of suitable habitat at monthly time steps over a 16‐year period (1998–2013). We identified considerable monthly, seasonal and interannual variability in the extent and distribution of suitable habitat, predominately driven by chlorophyll a and sea surface height. Interannual variability correlated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with suitable habitat extending up to ~300 km further south during La Nina events. Despite the strong influence of ENSO, our model revealed a rapid poleward shift in the geometric mean of black marlin habitat, occurring at 88.2 km decade^?1. By incorporating multiple environmental factors at monthly time steps, we were able to demonstrate a rapid distribution shift in a mobile pelagic species. Our findings suggest that the rapid velocity of climate change in the south‐west Pacific Ocean is likely affecting mobile pelagic species, indicating that they may be more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.     

Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions

There is now overwhelming evidence that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has caused global temperatures to increase by 0.6 °C since 1900 and further increases of between 1.4 and 5.8 °C are predicted over the next century. Changes in climatic conditions have already influenced the demography, phenology and distribution of a wide range of plant and animal taxa. This review focuses on the impacts, both observed and potential, of climate change on birds breeding in temperate woodlands of the Western Palaearctic, a significant proportion of which are currently declining. Changes in ambient temperatures and patterns of precipitation may have direct and indirect effects on the survival rates and productivity of bird species, thus influencing population sizes. For some species or populations, the timing of events such as egg-laying and return from the wintering grounds is also changing in relation to shifts in the peak of food availability during the breeding season. The degree to which different individuals are able to track these temporal changes will have a significant bearing on population sizes and distributions in the future. Unless active management steps are taken, the relatively low dispersal rates of tree species may lead to a decrease in the total area of some woodland habitat types as losses at the southern edge of the range are likely to occur much more quickly than expansion at the northern edge. In addition, the dispersal rates of many woodland birds are themselves low, which could affect their ability to move to new habitat patches if currently occupied areas become unsuitable. Thus, woodland birds may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.     

Will climate change promote future invasions?

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.     

Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern USA in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011

Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high‐elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations. We developed a method to model and map the montane forest ecotone using Landsat imagery to observe change at scales not possible for plot‐based studies, covering mountain peaks over 39 000 km². Our results show that ecotones shifted downward or stayed stable on most mountains between 1991 and 2010, but also shifted upward in some cases (13–15% slopes). On average, upper ecotone boundaries moved down ?1.5 m yr^?1 in the Green Mountains, VT, and ?1.3 m yr^?1 in the White Mountains, NH. These changes agree with remeasured forest inventory data from Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, and suggest that processes of boreal forest recovery from prior red spruce decline, or human land use and disturbance, may swamp out any signal of climate‐mediated migration in this ecosystem. This approach represents a powerful framework for evaluating similar ecotonal dynamics in other mountainous regions of the globe.     

Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity

Aim

Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale.

Location

Global, excluding Antarctica.

Time period

1995, 2050 and 2080.

Major taxa studied

Reptiles.

Methods

We modelled the distribution of 6296 reptile species and assessed potential global and realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species.

Results

Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographical realms, with the greatest decreases in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominant global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species.

Main conclusions

With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect, in addition to considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap and position, was visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re-assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.     

Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track?

Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r‐K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr^?1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr^?1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change‐driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr^?1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K‐selected (large‐bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates.     

Does dispersal capacity matter for freshwater biodiversity under climate change?

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Distributional migrations,expansions, and contractions of tropical plant species as revealed in dated herbarium records

Species are predicted to respond to global warming through ‘cold‐ward’ shifts in their geographic distributions due to encroachment into newly suitable habitats and/or dieback in areas that become climatically unsuitable. I conduct one of the first‐ever tests of this hypothesis for tropical plant species. I test for changes in the thermal distributions of 239 South American tropical plant species using dated herbarium records for specimens collected between 1970 and 2009. Supporting a priori predictions, many species (59%) exhibit some evidence of significant cold‐ward range shifts even after correcting for collection biases. Over 1/3 of species (35%) show significant cold‐ward movement in their hot thermal limits (mean rate of change = 0.022 °C yr^?1). Most of these species (85%; 30% of all study species) show no corresponding shift in their cold thermal limits. These unbalanced changes in the species’ thermal range limits may indicate species that are experiencing dieback due to their intolerance of rising temperatures coupled with an inability to expand into newly climatically suitable habitats. On the other hand, 25% of species show significant cold‐ward shifts in their cold thermal range limits (mean rate of change = 0.003 °C yr^?1), but 80% of these species (20% of all study species) show no corresponding shift in their hot thermal range limits. In these cases, the unbalanced shifts may indicate species that are able to ‘benefit’ under global warming, at least temporally, by both tolerating rising temperatures and expanding into new suitable habitat. An important ancillary result of this study is that the number of species exhibiting significant range shifts was greatly influenced by shifting collector biases. This highlights the need to account for biases when analyzing natural history records or other long‐term records.     

Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes

Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950–2000 and 2061–2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914–1987 and 1997–2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation‐plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914–2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (?0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species – corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency – along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate‐induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes.     

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long‐term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970–1978, 2000–2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr^?1, than for adults, 0.13 km yr^?1. Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.