To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to project future changes in the geographic ranges of species, to estimate extinction rates and to plan biodiversity conservation. However, these models can produce a range of results depending on how they are parameterized, and over‐reliance on a single model may lead to overconfidence in maps of future distributions. The choice of predictor variable can have a greater influence on projected future habitat than the range of climate models used. We demonstrate this in the case of the Ptunarra Brown Butterfly, a species listed as vulnerable in Tasmania, Australia. We use the Maxent model to develop future projections for this species based on three variable sets; all 35 commonly used so‐called ‘bioclimatic’ variables, a subset of these based on expert knowledge, and a set of monthly climate variables relevant to the species’ primary activity period. We used a dynamically downscaled regional climate model based on three global climate models. Depending on the choice of variable set, the species is projected either to experience very little contraction of habitat or to come close to extinction by the end of the century due to lack of suitable climate. The different conclusions could have important consequences for conservation planning and management, including the perceived viability of habitat restoration. The output of SDMs should therefore be used to define the range of possible trajectories a species may be on, and ongoing monitoring used to inform management as changes occur.     

气候变化下耐旱藓类连轴藓属在新疆的分布模拟

该研究基于耐旱藓类连轴藓属5种53条在新疆的地理分布信息和7个气候变量,利用最大熵模型和ArcGIS 10.2软件,分别模拟现代气候和未来气候情景下连轴藓属在新疆的适生分布区,为探讨气候变化对干旱、半干旱区苔藓植物物种分布的影响提供参考。结果表明:(1)Maxent模型预测连轴藓属在新疆适生区的准确性非常高(AUC=0.957)。(2)年降雨量、最干季度降雨量和最暖季度平均气温是影响连轴藓属分布的主要气候因子。(3)连轴藓属在新疆的适生区主要集中在阿尔泰山和天山沿线,在未来(2061~2080年)气候情景下,连轴藓属分布面积将比现代气候下减少10.39%,其绝大部分现有南部适生区将丧失。     

基于Maxent模型的未来气候变化情景下胡杨在中国的潜在地理分布

胡杨（Populus euphratica）是全世界干旱和半干旱区急需优先保护的林木基因资源,预测未来气候变化情景下胡杨在中国的潜在地理分布将为胡杨种群资源的保护和管理提供科学依据,并为绿洲恢复过程中胡杨的合理种植和配置提供有价值的理论指导。基于胡杨在中国地区的92条有效分布记录和10个环境因子变量,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS软件预测了未来气候变化情景下胡杨在中国的潜在地理分布,综合环境因子变量贡献率及置换重要值、刀切法检验评估制约现代胡杨潜在地理分布的重要因子,采用响应曲线确定环境因子变量的适宜区间,定量确定胡杨未来受威胁的潜在地理分布区域和面积。结果表明:（1）Maxent模型的预测准确度极高,受试者工作曲线面积（AUC值）达0.932,现代胡杨潜在地理分布的总适生区面积为289.94×10～4 km²,主要位于内蒙古中西部地区（额济纳旗和阿拉善地区）、新疆大部分地区、甘肃北部和西北部地区、青海中西部地区和宁夏北部地区;（2）影响胡杨的潜在地理分布的主要环境因子变量为气温因子变量（年均温和最冷月最低温）和降水因子变量（最湿月降水量和最干季降水量）,最湿月降水量是影响胡杨潜在地理分布的关键因素;（3）在未来4种气候变化情景下,胡杨不同等级潜在地理分布区的面积较现代潜在地理分布区面积均有不同程度的缩小,且整体上看胡杨的潜在地理分布区有向高海拔区域迁移的趋势。     

Plant community patterns in Moroccan temporary ponds along latitudinal and anthropogenic disturbance gradients

Background: Temporary ponds, an abundant habitat in the Maghreb region and notably in Morocco, have a high conservation value. However, they are mainly known from the north of the country.

Aims: The aim of this work was to characterise the vegetation of Moroccan temporary ponds along a combined gradient of latitude and anthropogenic pressure.

Methods: Eighty-five ponds distributed along a north–south gradient of 750 km were sampled. For each pond, all vegetation was surveyed (flooded and dry parts) and the local abiotic characteristics were measured during two successive hydrological cycles. The prevailing anthropogenic pressures were also identified and were attributed an impact score.

Results: Eighty-one characteristic pond species (including 17 rare species) were recorded, with several new distribution data in the southern part of the latitudinal gradient. Plant communities were related to climatic and anthropogenic factors, but mostly to local factors, such as maximum water depth and soil pH. The northern ponds (wettest macroclimate) were rich in characteristic species and rare species, while the southern (driest macroclimate) ponds were more species poor.

Conclusions: In addition to the direct impact of increasing human activity, a further reduction of the floristic richness of temporary ponds is expected due to climatic changes. This is particularly the case for characteristic species which have a high conservation value.     

珠三角地区至2050年土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响

人类活动引发的剧烈土地利用变化是导致生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素之一,明晰未来土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响对保护生物多样性、维持人类福祉具有重要意义。然而,目前的研究主要关注未来农田和城市扩张对生物多样性的影响,而忽略了其他土地利用变化对生物多样性的综合影响。基于不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和代表浓度路径(RCPs)耦合情景下的5种未来土地利用情景数据、物种丰富度数据等,结合“预测生态多样性对陆地系统变化的响应(PREDICTS)”数据库以及生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(InVEST)模型等,系统评估了至2050年珠三角地区土地利用、物种丰富度和生境质量的变化;构建了综合生物多样性指数,探讨了未来土地利用变化对生物多样性的综合影响。研究发现:(1)未来珠三角地区主要的土地利用变化仍然是以侵占草地为主的建设用地扩张,且主要集中在中部平原区;而东北和西北低山丘陵区的土地利用变化主要是耕地和草地转为林地。(2)物种丰富度和生境质量之间存在协同关系,高值区及提升区主要分布在植被覆盖度较高的东北、西北和西南地区,而中部平原区由于建设用地扩张导致生境质量持续退化。(3)未来珠三角地区四分之三以上的地区综合生物多样性指数基本保持不变,而其他地区则以轻度或中度下降为主,表明未来珠三角地区整体生态质量可能有所恶化。研究可为未来珠三角地区制定科学的生态保护和土地利用管理政策提供科学参考,从而保障生态系统的可持续发展,为社会经济发展提供长期利益。     

Will climate change promote future invasions?

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.