Unraveling climate influences on the distribution of the parapatric newts <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">L. italicus</Emphasis>

Background

Climate is often considered as a key ecological factor limiting the capability of expansion of most species and the extent of suitable habitats. In this contribution, we implement Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to study two parapatric amphibians, Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus, investigating if and how climate has influenced their present and past (Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene) distributions. A database of 901 GPS presence records was generated for the two newts. SDMs were built through Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, using the Worldclim bioclimatic variables as predictors.

Results

Precipitation-linked variables and the temperature annual range strongly influence the current occurrence patterns of the two Lissotriton species analyzed. The two newts show opposite responses to the most contributing variables, such as BIO7 (temperature annual range), BIO12 (annual precipitation), BIO17 (precipitation of the driest quarter) and BIO19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter). The hypothesis of climate influencing the distributions of these species is also supported by the fact that the co-occurrences within the sympatric area fall in localities characterized by intermediate values of these predictors. Projections to the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene scenarios provided a coherent representation of climate influences on the past distributions of the target species. Computation of pairwise variables interactions and the discriminant analysis allowed a deeper interpretation of SDMs’ outputs. Further, we propose a multivariate environmental dissimilarity index (MEDI), derived through a transformation of the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS), to deal with extrapolation-linked uncertainties in model projections to past climate. Finally, the niche equivalency and niche similarity tests confirmed the link between SDMs outputs and actual differences in the ecological niches of the two species.

Conclusions

The different responses of the two species to climatic factors have significantly contributed to shape their current distribution, through contractions, expansions and shifts over time, allowing to maintain two wide allopatric areas with an area of sympatry in Central Italy. Moreover, our SDMs hindcasting shows many concordances with previous phylogeographic studies carried out on the same species, thus corroborating the scenarios of potential distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene emerging from the models obtained.

     

Past climatic fluctuations are associated with morphological differentiation in the cloud forest endemic tree <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ocotea psychotrioides</Emphasis> (Lauraceae)

Pleistocene glacial periods have had a major influence on the geographical patterns of genetic structure of species in tropical montane regions. However, their effect on morphological differentiation among populations of cloud forest plants remains virtually unexplored. Here, we address this question by testing whether geographical patterns of morphological variation in Ocotea psychotrioides can be explained by the intensity of climate change occurring during 130,000 years. For this, we measured vegetative and reproductive traits for 96 individuals from 36 localities registered across the species’ distribution range. Species distribution models and multivariate statistics were used to investigate geographical patterns of morphological variation and test their association with current and past climatic conditions. Leaf size and pubescence in O. psychotrioides showed a latitudinal pattern of clinal variation that does not fit the geographical gradient of increasing leaf size towards lower latitudes observed globally among plants. Instead, the observed clinal variation conforms to a pattern of increasing leaf size towards higher latitudes. However, our analyses showed weak to non-significant association between morphology and current climate. Interestingly, our analyses showed that predicted shifts in the distribution range of O. psychotrioides during the last 130,000 years were accompanied by significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature seasonality and precipitation. Accordingly, climatic instability showed a better fit to the observed patterns of leaf size and pubescence variation than current climate conditions. These results suggest that climatic instability during the Pleistocene glacial periods might play a key role in promoting morphological differentiation among populations of cloud forest plants.     

The key role of accompanying species in the response of the critically endangered <Emphasis Type="Italic">Naufraga balearica</Emphasis> (Apiaceae) to climatic factors

This study addressed the response of Naufraga balearica, a critically endangered plant endemic to Mallorca (Balearic Islands, western Mediterranean Basin), and its adjacent community to climatic factors by assessing whether climate influences plant cover in N. balearica, including oscillation associated with seasonality, and whether the accompanying species influences its response to climatic factors. The cover of N. balearica and two other accompanying species (Erodium reichardii and Dactylis glomerata) were estimated quarterly from permanent plots over 12 years. The original time series of plant cover and climatic variables were transformed to obtain a smoothed and a detrended time series. The tendency of all variables was assessed using a simple linear regression of the smoothed series. The relationship among plant cover and climatic variables were tested by correlation. Naufraga balearica showed a declining trend, while E. reichardii and D. glomerata experienced a stable and an increasing population trend, respectively. However, all species showed an annual cover oscillation with a similar pattern. A new bioclimatic index combining temperature and precipitation variables was a good predictor although extreme meteorological events substantially altered the trends and patterns of the three species. The response of N. balearica to climatic factors, including extreme weather events, is exacerbated by the presence of other species, mainly those grasses with caespitose growth form and with a faster response to the changing environmental factors. In a climate change scenario, N. balearica would be limited to the shadiest grass-free zones. The current situation emphasises the importance of taking conservation action to guarantee the species conservation.     

Integrating genetics and suitability modelling to bolster climate change adaptation planning in Patagonian <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nothofagus</Emphasis> forests

We investigated the impact of past changes in habitat suitability on the current patterns of genetic diversity of two southern beeches (Nothofagus nervosa and Nothofagus obliqua) in their eastern fragmented range in Patagonian Argentina, and model likely future threats to their population genetic structure. Our goal was to develop a spatially-explicit strategy for guiding conservation and management interventions in light of climate change. We combined suitability modelling under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum ~ 21,000 bp), and future (2050s) climatic conditions with genetic characterization data based on chloroplast DNA, isozymes, and microsatellites. We show the complementary usefulness of the distribution of chloroplast haplotypes and locally common allelic richness calculated from microsatellite data for identifying the locations of putative glacial refugia. Our findings suggest that contemporary hotspots of genetic diversity correspond to convergence zones of different expansion routes, most likely as a consequence of admixture processes. Future suitability predictions suggest that climate change might differentially affect both species. All genetically most diverse populations of N. nervosa and several of N. obliqua are located in areas that may be most severely impacted by climate change, calling for forward-looking conservation interventions. We propose a practical spatially- explicit strategy to target conservation interventions distinguishing priority populations for (1) in situ conservation (hotspots of genetic diversity likely to remain suitable under climate change), (2) ex situ conservation in areas where high genetic diversity overlaps with high likelihood of drastic climate change, (3) vulnerable populations (areas expected to be negatively affected by climate change), and (4) potential expansion areas under climate change.     

Current and Future Fire Regimes and Their Influence on Natural Vegetation in Ethiopia

Fire is a major factor shaping the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we used a recent high resolution map of potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and MODIS fire products to model and investigate the importance of fire as driver of vegetation distribution patterns in Ethiopia. We employed statistical modeling techniques to estimate the distribution of fire and the PNVs under current climatic conditions, and used the calibrated models to project distributions for different climate change scenarios. Results show a clear congruence between distribution patterns of fire and major vegetation types. The effect of climate change varies considerably between climate change models and scenarios, but as general trend expansions of moist Afromontane forest and Combretum–Terminalia woodlands were predicted. Fire-prone areas were also predicted to increase, and including this factor in vegetation distribution models resulted in stronger expansion of Combretum–Terminalia woodlands and a more limited increase of moist Afromontane forests. These results underline the importance of fire as a regulating factor of vegetation distribution patterns, and how fire needs to be factored into predict the possible effects of climate change. For conservation strategies to effectively address conservation challenges caused by rapid climate shifts, it is imperative that they not only consider the direct influence of climate changes on the vegetation, species species, or biodiversity patterns, but also the influence of future fire regimes.     

Drivers of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bromus tectorum</Emphasis> Abundance in the Western North American Sagebrush Steppe

Bromus tectorum can transform ecosystems causing negative impacts on the ecological and economic values of sagebrush steppe of the western USA. Although our knowledge of the drivers of the regional distribution of B. tectorum has improved, we have yet to determine the relative importance of climate and local factors causing B. tectorum abundance and impact. To address this, we sampled 555 sites distributed geographically and ecologically throughout the sagebrush steppe. We recorded the canopy cover of B. tectorum, as well as local substrate and vegetation characteristics. Boosted regression tree modeling revealed that climate strongly limits the transformative ability of B. tectorum to a portion of the sagebrush steppe with dry summers (that is, July precipitation <10 mm and the driest annual quarter associated with a mean temperature >15°C) and low native grass canopy cover. This portion includes the Bonneville, Columbia, Lahontan, and lower Snake River basins. These areas are likely to require extreme efforts to reverse B. tectorum transformation. Our predictions, using future climate conditions, suggest that the transformative ability of B. tectorum may not expand geographically and could remain within the same climatically suitable basins. We found B. tectorum in locally disturbed areas within or adjacent to all of our sample sites, but not necessarily within sagebrush steppe vegetation. Conversion of the sagebrush steppe by B. tectorum, therefore, is more likely to occur outside the confines of its current climatically optimal region because of site-specific disturbances, including invasive species control efforts and sagebrush steppe mismanagement, rather than climate change.     

Spatial distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vachellia karroo</Emphasis> in Zimbabwean savannas (southern Africa) under a changing climate

Climate change projections in southern Africa show a drier and a warmer future climate. It is not yet clear how these changes are going to affect the suitable habitat of bush encroacher woody species in southern African savannas. Maximum Entropy niche modelling technique was used to test the extent to which climate change is likely to affect the suitable habitat of Vachellia karroo in Zimbabwe based on six Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the 2070s. An overlay analysis was then performed in a Geographic Information System based on the current and future bioclimatically suitable areas for the respective GCMs and RCPs. This was done to determine the potential effect of climate change on the focal species. Results show that temperature related variables are more important in explaining the spatial distribution of V. karroo than precipitation related variables. In addition, results indicate an overall increase in the modelled suitable habitat for V. karroo by the 2070s across the GCMs and RCPs considered in this study. Specifically, the suitable habitat of V. Karroo is projected to increase by a maximum of 57,594 km² signifying a 69% increase from the current suitable habitat (83,674 km²). The suitable areas are projected to increase in eastern, western and south eastern parts of Zimbabwe. These results imply that improved understanding of the response of woody species to a changing climate is important for managing bush encroachment in savanna ecosystems.     

South African mouse shrews (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Myosorex</Emphasis>) feel the heat: using species distribution models (SDMs) and IUCN Red List criteria to flag extinction risks due to climate change

Five species of mouse or forest shrews (Myosorex) are endemic to South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland, four of which (Myosorex varius, Myosorex cafer, Myosorex longicaudatus and Myosorex cf. tenuis) are associated with montane or temperate grassland, fynbos and/or forest habitats while a fifth (Myosorex sclateri) is associated with lowland subtropical forests. Due to their small size, specialised habitat, low dispersal capacity, high metabolism and sensitivity to temperature extremes, we predicted that, particularly for montane species, future climate change should have a negative impact on area of occupancy (AOO) and ultimately extinction risks. Species distribution models (SDMs) indicated general declines in AOO of three species by 2050 under the A1b and A2 climate change scenarios (M. cafer, M. varius, M. longicaudatus) while two species (M. sclateri and M. cf. tenuis) remained unchanged (assuming no dispersal) or increased their AOO (assuming dispersal). While temperate species such as M. varius appear to be limited by temperature maxima (preferring cooler temperatures), the subtropical species M. sclateri appears to be limited by temperature minima (preferring warmer temperatures). Evidence for declines in AOO informed the uplisting (to a higher category of threat) of the Red List status of four Myosorex species to either vulnerable or endangered as part of a separate regional International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment.     

气候变化对黄土高原及邻近地区稀有种枯蝉分布的潜在影响(英文)

【目的】未来数十年的气候变化预计会是造成很多物种生境丧失的一个重要因素。对适应能力相对脆弱的地方性物种,预测气候变化对其生境的影响将对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于最大熵模型,对珍稀蝉科中国特有种枯蝉Subpsaltria yangi在当前和未来气候条件下的生境适宜度进行了评估。【结果】结果表明,枯蝉主要局限分布于黄土高原及邻近地区。预计至2050年,即使在温和的气候变化情景下,枯蝉的生境面积也会明显减少。影响枯蝉栖息地分布的关键因素为年平均气温、最冷月的最低气温、最冷季的平均气温和最潮湿月份的降水量。枯蝉现存种群栖息地应当受到保护,甘肃天水和陕西延安地区应作为枯蝉分布的核心区予以保护,以应对气候变化对其生境带来的影响。【结论】本研究获得的枯蝉适宜生境分布图可以为该稀有物种的新种群发现、现生种群分布地土地规划管理以及有效的自然保护区设立提供重要信息。     

Predicting the effects of future climate change on the distribution of an endemic damselfly (Odonata,Coenagrionidae) in subtropical South American grasslands

Climate change is predicted to affect the distribution of freshwater taxa, and stronger impacts are expected on endemic species. However, the effects of future climates on freshwater insects from the Neotropical region have been generally overlooked. In this study, the distribution of a damselfly (Cyanallagma bonariense, Odonata, Coenagrionidae) endemic to the subtropical South American grasslands (Pampa) was modelled in relation to future scenarios of high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, ecological niche models were developed based on assumptions of limited dispersal and niche conservatism, and the projected distribution of C. bonariense was contrasted with the location of current protected areas (PAs) in the Pampa. A broad potential distribution of C. bonariense was indicated throughout the Pampa, and projections predicted a predominance of range contractions rather than range shifts in climatically suitable areas for C. bonariense in 2050 and 2070. Projections of suitable areas overlapped in central Argentina and southernmost Uruguay in these periods. Our results indicated a potential resilience of C. bonariense to future climate change, which is likely related to the low restrictions in habitat use of C. bonariense. In every projection, however, most PAs were expected to lose effectiveness, as by 2070 most PAs fall outside the range of the predicted distribution of C. bonariense. Thus, the creation or enlargement of PAs in these areas is recommended and these results represent an important information for the conservation of endemic freshwater insects under global warming scenarios in an overlooked Neotropical landscape.     

Combining the effects of biological invasion and climate change into systematic conservation planning for the Atlantic Forest

Biological invasions and climate changes are the major causes of changes in biodiversity, which reduce, shift, and extinguish species ranges. While climate changes have been widely used in systematic conservation planning (SCP), biological invasions are rarely considered. Here, we combine the effects of climate changes and Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam. (Moraceae) invasion on the SCP for endemic aromatic fruit tree species from the Atlantic Forest (EFAF). We tested the effect of invasion on SCP measures of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability. Ecological niche models were used to establish species environmental suitability for the preindustrial period for both invasive species and EFAF and to forecast to the end of the century (2080–2100). We calculated the niche overlap between the invasive species and EFAF and tested the overlap significance using a null model. We tested the biological invasion effect on the results using results with no species invasion correction. The niche overlap between A. heterophyllus and EFAF was significant for 50% of species in the preindustrial period and for 33% in the future. The spatial patterns of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability had significant effects on biological invasion changing the spatial pattern in both shape and magnitude, which can misplace and overvalue conservation priorities. We showed that the disregard of biological invasion on SCP can cause negative effects on SCP under climate change. We strongly recommend accounting for biological invasion in the evaluation of SCP.     

On the Distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pleurozium schreberi</Emphasis> (Bryophyta,Hylocomiaceae) in the East European Plain and Eastern Fennoscandia

Pleurozium schreberi is one of the most common moss species in the forest area. It is dominant in the moss layer of blueberry and wood sorrel forests. It can occur in small quantities in almost all types of forests (even in bogs). It is also a typical component of the moss layer in tundra. The article considers the distribution of Pleurozium schreberi in the East European Plain and Eastern Fennoscandia. On the basis of literature sources on the occurrence of the species in different regions (according to point data), a model map of species distribution using the kriging-method has been created. The overlaying of the model map on the maps of spatial distribution of climatic parameters and vegetation zones in this area has revealed that the biogeographical preferences of the species. P. schreberi is characterized by its highest distribution in the forest zone. It often occurs here and represents a phytocenotically active species. The occurrence of Pleurozium schreberi dramatically decreases in the transition from the forest to the steppe zone, where it is a rather rare species, growing exclusively in pine and birch pegs. This species disappears in the open steppe. From the steppe zone to the south, the occurrence of Pleurozium schreberi gradually decreases with increase in summer temperatures and decrease in precipitation and with forest disappearance. In the north, where the species is highly active, its range abruptly ends on the coast of the Arctic Ocean. This pattern of distribution of Pleurozium schreberi is associated both with cenotic preferences and with climate: it becomes rare in regions with summer temperatures higher than +23°C and annual precipitation of less than 400 mm.     

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.     

Modeling the Geographical Distribution and Fundamental Niches of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cacajao</Emphasis> spp. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chiropotes israelita</Emphasis> in Northwestern Amazonia via a Maximum Entropy Algorithm

We modeled the geographical distribution of 4 pithecine primate species: brown-backed bearded sakis (Chiropotes israelita) and 3 black uakaris (Cacajao melanocephalus, C. hosomi, and C. ayresi) that inhabit remote regions of western Amazonas, Brazil. We applied a maximum entropy algorithm modeling program (MAXENT) to field data Boubli collected from 1991 to 2007. We used 23 environmental coverage variables to model the distribution of the primates. The layers were related to precipitation, temperature, topography, and ecological bioregions or Ecoregions. The predicted distribution for Cacajao hosomi was strongly associated with the Negro-Branco Moist Forest and Guianan Highlands Moist Forests Ecoregions, and the Worldclim variables Bio3 (isothermality), Bio4 (temperature seasonality) and Bio17 (precipitation of the driest quarter). Cacajao melanocephalus was strongly associated with Japurá/ Solimões-Negro Moist Forests, Caquetá Moist Forests, Purús Várzea Flooded Forests, Rio Negro Campinaranas, and Cordillera Oriental Montane Forests, Ecoregions. Cacajao ayresi was strongly associated with Negro-Branco Moist Forest and Rio Negro Campinarana Ecoregions as well as Worldclim Bio3 (isothermality). Chiropotes israelita was also strongly associated with Worldclim Bio3 (isothermality) followed by the Negro Branco Moist Forests and Guianan Piedmont and Lowland Moist Forests Ecoregion, and to the Guianan Highland moist forests. These results show a great overlap between the bearded saki and 2 black uakaris, Cacajao hosomi and C. ayresi. Given that one cannot attribute the separation between the species in the Rio Negro-Rio Branco interfluvium to the existence of geographical barriers such as rivers, we suggest that the present geographical boundaries and thus coexistence of the 3 pithecines north of the Rio Negro is maintained by competitive exclusion or stochastic events. Until more surveys are conducted, the present geographical distributions of the pithecines and the mechanism maintaining their boundaries in the Rio Negro-Rio Branco interfluvium will remain uncertain. One important contribution of our model is to identify areas of higher probability of occurrence that might be helpful in guiding future survey expeditions and choices of areas for future conservation of pithecines.     

Conservation genetics of rare trees restricted to subtropical montane cloud forests in southern China: a case study from <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus arbutifolia</Emphasis> (Fagaceae)

Montane cloud forests (MCFs), with their isolated nature, offer excellent opportunities to study the long-term effects of habitat fragmentation and the impacts of climate change. Quercus arbutifolia is a rare oak in MCFs of southern China and Vietnam. Its isolated populations, small population size and unique ecological niche make this species vulnerable to climate change and habitat loss. In this study, we used chloroplast (cpDNA) and nuclear (ITS) DNA sequences to investigate genetic divergence patterns and demographic history of five of the six known populations of Q. arbutifolia. Considering its small population size and fragmentation, Q. arbutifolia has unexpectedly high genetic diversity. The time since the most recent common ancestor of all cpDNA haplotypes was c. 10.25 Ma, and the rapid diversification of haplotypes occurred during the Quaternary. The maximum clade credibility chronogram of cpDNA haplotypes suggests that the DM population (Daming Mountain, Guangxi province) diverged early and rapidly became isolated from other populations. The Pearl River drainage system may have been the main geographic barrier between DM and other populations since the late Miocene. ITS data suggests that population expansion occurred during the last interglacial of the Quaternary. The combined effects of pre-Quaternary and Quaternary climatic and geological changes were the main drivers to the current genetic diversity and distribution pattern of Q. arbutifolia. Because of the high between-population genetic differentiation and high within-population genetic diversity of Q. arbutifolia, conservation efforts should be implemented for all populations, but if conservation resources are limited, populations DM, YZ (Mang Mountain, Hunan province) and ZZ (Daqin Mountain, Fujian province) should have priority.     

The pace of range expansion: a long-term study on the flightless ground beetle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carabus hortensis</Emphasis> (Coleoptera: Carabidae)

Range shifts are predicted for numerous species due to climate change, and therefore understanding species dispersal is more crucial than ever. For some species, their low dispersal capabilities may prevent them from reaching new, suitable habitats, thus threatening their survival. This is of particular concern for those ground beetles which are flightless and depend on a specific type of habitat. However, studies on ground beetle dispersal rates are rare. We investigated the shift in distribution range of Carabus hortensis in northwestern Germany over a span of 22 years. We found that this species disperses on average 127 m per year with low variation between years. Although C. hortensis’ movement (locomotory) activity is not different or lower than that found in similar ground beetles, its dispersal rate is rather low. We speculate that this slow range expansion may be due to a long individual development time from egg to teneral and suggest that in the face of climate change, conservation actions, like assisted migration, may be an option for such slow dispersing species.     

The road to 2020 targets and the learnings from the emblematic South American plant genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nassauvia</Emphasis> (Asteraceae)

The elaboration of a comprehensive database about the distribution of the South American genus Nassauvia has allowed investigate its conservation biogeography. The combined use of historical (Dispersal Vicariance Analysis) and ecological (UPGMA) biogeographical approaches has led to detecting past, present and future critical areas in the evolution and persistence of the genus. According to the size of distribution areas, number of locations, environmental niche models, and predicted shifts of these spatial characteristics following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts for the next decade, it has been possible to award the level of global and national risk for all species of the genus and assign their corresponding IUCN categories. Severe gaps in legal and in situ conservation policies have been detected within the region, making it urgent the adoption of measures aimed at preventing the extinction of the most endangered species. We identify a future dramatic loss of Nassauvia species in the Andes and conversely a species increase in Patagonia. Patagonia has emerged as the cradle of the genus and could be its refuge in the future according the predictions targeted by climate change.     

On the Iberian endemism <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eurylophella iberica</Emphasis> Keffermuller and Da Terra 1978 (Ephemeroptera,Ephemerellidae): current and future potential distributions,and assessment of the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network on its protection

Eurylophella iberica Keffermüller and Da Terra, 1978 is an endemic insect species of the Iberian Peninsula whose distribution has been poorly studied to date with rather old and scattered records. Here we compiled all existing distribution records and add new records from recent sampling activities. We also used this updated distributional information and environmental data (climate and geology) to estimate both current and future potential distributions in different climate change scenarios. We found that currently ca. 50% of the total Iberian region could present suitable environmental conditions for E. iberica (all the Iberian Peninsula, save the most eastern and Mediterranean areas). However, the potential distributions estimated when considering future climate change scenarios showed a marked reduction in the areas with suitable environmental conditions for the species, especially in the south. The northwest part of the Iberian Peninsula is a crucial zone for the future survival of this endemic species. We also found that most populations that occur in areas with suitable (both current and future) environmental conditions fall outside the Natura 2000 network of protected areas. Our results represent the first attempt to estimate the potential distribution of this endemic species providing important insights for its conservation.     

Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change

Background

Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.     

Genetic drift and uniform selection shape evolution of most traits in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eugenia dysenterica</Emphasis> DC. (Myrtaceae)

Knowing how microevolutionary processes, such as genetic drift and natural selection, shape variation in adaptive traits is strategic for conservation measures. One way to estimate local adaptation is to compare divergences in quantitative traits (Q_ST) and neutral loci (F_ST). Therefore, we have assessed the pattern of phenotypic and molecular genetic divergence among natural subpopulations of the fruit tree Eugenia dysenterica DC. A provenance and progeny test was performed to assess the quantitative traits of the subpopulations collected in a wide distribution area of the species in the Brazilian Cerrado. The sampled environments are in a biodiversity hotspot with heterogeneous soil and climate conditions. By associating quantitative trait variation in initial seedling development with neutral microsatellite marker variation, we tested the local adaptation of the traits by the Q_ST–F_ST contrast. Genetic drift was prevalent in the phenotypic differentiation among the subpopulations, although the traits seedling emergence time and root green mass, which are relevant for adaptation to the Cerrado climate, showed signs of uniform selection. Our results suggest that E. dysenterica has a spatial genetic structure divided into two large groups, separated by a line that divides the Cerrado biome in a southwestern to northeastern direction. This structure must be taken into account for managing E. dysenterica genetic resources both for conservation and breeding purposes.