The exposure,sensitivity and vulnerability of natural vegetation in China to climate thermal variability (1901–2013): An indicator-based approach

Vulnerability assessments can be helpful in assessing the impact of climate change on natural ecosystems and are expected to support adaptation and/or mitigation strategies in the 21st century. A challenge when conducting such assessments is the integration of the multi-level properties and processes of ecosystems into an assessment framework. Focusing on the primary stresses of climate thermal variability (at both upper and lower extremes), this study proposes a quantitative indicator system—following the IPCC framework of vulnerability assessment—that assesses the impact of historical climate change, during 1901–2013, on the natural terrestrial vegetation types in China. The final output of the vulnerability assessment was expressed as a composite index, composed of ecosystem exposure, sensitivity and resilience to climate thermal change, and including biological, ecological and spatial traits of vegetation types in the assessment. The exposure to temperature variability was generally higher in January than in July, and higher in non-arborous vegetation types than forests. In contrast, sensitivity was higher for forests, wetlands and alpine tundra regions, especially for small areas and areas with scattered patterns. Original forests—especially those distributed in the north—had lower resilience than other vegetation types. The vulnerability of natural vegetation types in China to the temperature variability of the past century was very low to moderate, with a few exceptions, including tropical mangroves and the semi-arid to arid vegetation types in northwestern China, which had high vulnerability. Vulnerability was stronger in winter than in summer. Our results are generally in accord with the scenario-based projections on the geographical pattern of vegetation vulnerability to climate change, and revealed the difference caused by not considering moisture. The risks for these fragmented and narrow-range ecosystems are highlighted, and the importance of natural resilience is stressed for the assessment of vegetation vulnerability to climate change. Given the inadequate coverage of the natural reserve network in China (after the large investment in recent decades) found in the high-vulnerability vegetation types (with a few exceptions), the assessment of natural resilience of ecosystems could be critical for the optimal design of socio-economic strategies in response to the impacts of future climate change.     

The influences of climatic variation and vegetation on stream biota: lessons from the Big Dry in southeastern Australia

Aquatic biodiversity faces increasing threats from climate change, escalating exploitation of water and land use intensification. Loss of vegetation in catchments (= watersheds) has been identified as a substantial problem for many river basins, and there is an urgent need to better understand how climate change may interact with changes in catchment vegetation to influence the ecological condition of freshwater ecosystems. We used 20 years of biological monitoring data from Victoria, southeastern Australia, to explore the influences of catchment vegetation and climate on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Southeastern Australia experienced a severe drought from 1997 to 2009, with reductions of stream flows >50% in some areas. The prolonged drying substantially altered macroinvertebrate assemblages, with reduced prevalence of many flow‐dependent taxa and increased prevalence of taxa that are tolerant of low‐flow conditions and poor water quality. Stream condition, as assessed by several commonly used macroinvertebrate indices, was consistently better in reaches with extensive native tree cover in upstream catchments. Prolonged drought apparently caused similar absolute declines in macroinvertebrate condition indices regardless of vegetation cover, but streams with intact catchment and riparian vegetation started in better condition and remained so throughout the drought. The largest positive effects of catchment tree cover on both water quality and macroinvertebrate assemblages occurred above a threshold of ca. 60% areal tree cover in upstream catchments and in higher rainfall areas. Riparian tree cover also had positive effects on macroinvertebrate assemblages, especially in warmer catchments. Our results suggest that the benefits of extensive tree cover via improved water quality and in‐channel habitat persist during drought and show the potential for vegetation management to reduce negative impacts of climatic extremes for aquatic ecosystems.     

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts

Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.     

1985-2015年中国不同生态系统NDVI时空变化及其对气候因子的响应

植被是陆地生态系统不可或缺的部分,气候是影响其动态变化的重要驱动因素。因此,探究植被的时空变化及其与气候因子的响应关系,有助于理解陆地生态系统的内在演化机制。目前,不同生态系统尺度下的植被动态变化与气候因子的时间响应关系仍未被完整剖析。因此,为了厘清过去30年不同生态系统植被生长对气候因子的响应关系,利用GIMMS NDVI3g数据和气候资料数据,通过Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验分析了1985—2015年中国陆地NDVI的时空变化特征,结合时间序列相关分析探究了NDVI变化与降水、温度和饱和水汽压差的内部关联,探讨了中国不同生态系统植被与气候因子间的时间响应机制。结果表明：(1) 1985—2015年中国陆地植被呈现改善趋势,年均NDVI先减小后增加,拐点时间在1995年左右,整体变化率为0.5×10^-3/a。农田、森林和草地生态系统的植被显著改善的程度最高,湿地生态系统的植被退化趋势最显著。(2)中国陆地植被NDVI与气候因子的相关性存在明显的空间异质性,且受不同生态系统分区影响。内蒙古高原中部草地生态系统NDVI与降水...     

Habitat patchiness,ecological connectivity and the uneven recovery of boreal stream ecosystems from an experimental drought

Ongoing climate change is increasing the occurrence and intensity of drought episodes worldwide, including in boreal regions not previously regarded as drought prone, and where the impacts of drought remain poorly understood. Ecological connectivity is one factor that might influence community structure and ecosystem functioning post‐drought, by facilitating the recovery of sensitive species via dispersal at both local (e.g. a nearby habitat patch) and regional (from other systems within the same region) scales. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment, we investigated how impacts of drought on boreal stream ecosystems are altered by the spatial arrangement of local habitat patches within stream channels, and variation in ecological connectivity with a regional species pool. We measured basal ecosystem processes underlying carbon and nutrient cycling: (a) algal biomass accrual; (b) microbial respiration; and (c) decomposition of organic matter, and sampled communities of aquatic fungi and benthic invertebrates. An 8‐day drought event had strong impacts on both community structure and ecosystem functioning, including algal accrual, leaf decomposition and microbial respiration, with many of these impacts persisting even after water levels had been restored for 3.5 weeks. Enhanced connectivity with the regional species pool and increased aggregation of habitat patches also affected multiple response variables, especially those associated with microbes, and in some cases reduced the effects of drought to a small extent. This indicates that spatial processes might play a role in the resilience of communities and ecosystem functioning, given enough time. These effects were however insufficient to facilitate significant recovery in algal growth before seasonal dieback began in autumn. The limited resilience of ecosystem functioning in our experiment suggests that even short‐term droughts can have extended consequences for stream ecosystems in the world's vast boreal region, and especially on the ecosystem processes and services mediated by algal biofilms.     

Riparian Ecosystems in the 21st Century: Hotspots for Climate Change Adaptation?

Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.     

Coping with drought: Responses of herders and livestock in contrasting savanna environments in Southern Zimbabwe

This paper examines the contrasting responses to short- and long-term droughts shown by cattle populations in two different savanna ecosystems in a communal area in southern Zimbabwe. It illustrates how ecological responses are modified by differential management inputs—herding, transhumant movement, and supplementary feeding. The impacts of drought on cattle herds can thus be understood only with insight into this interaction of ecological and socioeconomic factors. Such detailed study of drought response can most effectively inform development planning.     

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual‐based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer‐dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.     

典型红壤区自然生态修复的适用性

自然修复主要通过封山育林、禁止农作、禁牧禁伐措施,减少人类对环境的扰动,利用自然生态环境的自我演替能力,恢复生态环境,实现生态平衡。自然修复作为一种成本低、无污染的生态修复手段很早就受到人们重视,但关于自然修复适用范围的研究较少。为了正确认识自然修复的适用性,选择了我国南方红壤地区长期遭受严重土壤侵蚀危害的福建省长汀县为研究对象,通过对长期自然修复样地的监测资料分析,发现在坡度条件为20%—30%下,当植被覆盖度低于20%的退化阈值时,严重的土壤侵蚀引发的土壤肥力损失将导致生态系统自我退化,自然修复不仅无法改善当地的生态系统,反而会引起生态系统的进一步恶化。由此可见,自然修复并不适合所有的生态系统,当生态系统退化到一定程度时,退化生态系统必须通过人工干预来修复。因此,必须探索适合当地的生态修复模式,在生态系统退化突破阈值时,红壤丘陵区应通过恢复土壤肥力、促进自然植被覆盖度增加、综合提高生态系统健康水平。     

Exposure of trees to drought‐induced die‐off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die‐off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die‐off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die‐off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die‐off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die‐off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co‐occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die‐off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die‐off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die‐off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events.     

Resilience to Stress and Disturbance,and Resistance to Bromus tectorum L. Invasion in Cold Desert Shrublands of Western North America

Alien grass invasions in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are resulting in grass–fire cycles and ecosystem-level transformations that severely diminish ecosystem services. Our capacity to address the rapid and complex changes occurring in these ecosystems can be enhanced by developing an understanding of the environmental factors and ecosystem attributes that determine resilience of native ecosystems to stress and disturbance, and resistance to invasion. Cold desert shrublands occur over strong environmental gradients and exhibit significant differences in resilience and resistance. They provide an excellent opportunity to increase our understanding of these concepts. Herein, we examine a series of linked questions about (a) ecosystem attributes that determine resilience and resistance along environmental gradients, (b) effects of disturbances like livestock grazing and altered fire regimes and of stressors like rapid climate change, rising CO₂, and N deposition on resilience and resistance, and (c) interacting effects of resilience and resistance on ecosystems with different environmental conditions. We conclude by providing strategies for the use of resilience and resistance concepts in a management context. At ecological site scales, state and transition models are used to illustrate how differences in resilience and resistance influence potential alternative vegetation states, transitions among states, and thresholds. At landscape scales management strategies based on resilience and resistance—protection, prevention, restoration, and monitoring and adaptive management—are used to determine priority management areas and appropriate actions.     

Satellite detection of cumulative and lagged effects of drought on autumn leaf senescence over the Northern Hemisphere

Climate change has substantial influences on autumn leaf senescence, that is, the end of the growing season (EOS). Relative to the impacts of temperature and precipitation on EOS, the influence of drought is not well understood, especially considering that there are apparent cumulative and lagged effects of drought on plant growth. Here, we investigated the cumulative and lagged effects of drought (in terms of the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) on EOS derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) data over the Northern Hemisphere extra‐tropical ecosystems (>30°N) during 1982–2015. The cumulative effect was determined by the number of antecedent months at which SPEI showed the maximum correlation with EOS (i.e., R_max‐cml) while the lag effect was determined by a month during which the maximum correlation between 1‐month SPEI and EOS occurred (i.e., R_max‐lag). We found cumulative effect of drought on EOS for 27.2% and lagged effect for 46.2% of the vegetated land area. For the dominant time scales where the R_max‐cml and R_max‐lag occurred, we observed 1–4 accumulated months for the cumulative effect and 2–6 lagged months for the lagged effect. At the biome level, drought had stronger impacts on EOS in grasslands, savannas, and shrubs than in forests, which may be related to the different root functional traits among vegetation types. Considering hydrological conditions, the mean values of both R_max‐cml and R_max‐lag decreased along the gradients of annual SPEI and its slope, suggesting stronger cumulative and lagged effects in drier regions as well as in areas with decreasing water availability. Furthermore, the average accumulated and lagged months tended to decline along the annual SPEI gradient but increase with increasing annual SPEI. Our results revealed that drought has strong cumulative and lagged effects on autumn phenology, and considering these effects could provide valuable information on the vegetation response to a changing climate.     

NEECF: a project of nutrient enrichment experiments in China's forests

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to atmosphere have increased dramatically in China since 1980s, and this increase has aroused great concerns on its ecological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Previous studies have showed that terrestrial ecosystems in China are acting as a large carbon (C) sink, but its potential in the future remains largely uncertain. So far little work on the impacts of the N deposition on C sequestration in China's terrestrial ecosystems has been assessed at a national scale. Aiming to assess and predict how ecological processes especially the C cycling respond to the increasing N deposition in China's forests, recently researchers from Peking University and their partners have established a manipulation experimental network on the ecological effects of the N deposition: Nutrient Enrichment Experiments in China's Forests Project (NEECF). The NEECF comprises 10 experiments at 7 sites located from north to south China, covering major zonal forest vegetation in eastern China from boreal forest in Greater Khingan Mountains to tropical forests in Hainan Island. This paper introduces the framework of the NEECF project and its potential policy implications.     

Vulnerability of sea turtle nesting grounds to climate change

Given the potential vulnerability of sea turtles to climate change, a growing number of studies are predicting how various climatic processes will affect their nesting grounds. However, these studies are limited by scale, because they predict how a single climatic process will affect sea turtles but processes are likely to occur simultaneously and cause cumulative effects. This study addresses the need for a structured approach to investigate how multiple climatic processes may affect a turtle population. Here, we use a vulnerability assessment framework to assess the cumulative impact of various climatic processes on the nesting grounds used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle population. Further, we manipulate the variables from this framework to allow users to investigate how mitigating different climatic processes individually or simultaneously can influence the vulnerability of the nesting grounds. Our assessment indicates that nesting grounds closer to the equator, such as Bramble Cay and Milman Island, are the most vulnerable to climate change. In the short‐term (by 2030), sea level rise will cause the most impact on the nesting grounds used by the nGBR green turtle population. However, in the longer term, by 2070 sand temperatures will reach levels above the upper transient range and the upper thermal threshold and cause relatively more impact on the nGBR green turtle population. Thus, in the long term, a reduction of impacts from sea‐level rise may not be sufficient, as rookeries will start to experience high vulnerability values from increased temperature. Thus, in the long term, reducing the threats from increased temperature may provide a greater return in conservation investment than mitigating the impacts from other climatic processes. Indeed, our results indicate that if the impacts from increased temperature are mitigated, the vulnerability values of almost all rookeries will be reduced to low levels.     

Persistence and production of perennial grasses under water deficits and extreme temperatures: importance of intraspecific vs. interspecific variability

Extreme climatic events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming. Grasslands cover a large proportion of the European continent and contribute to both agricultural production and ecosystem services through inter and intraspecific genetic variability. This study analysed the effects of summer droughts and heat waves on the persistence and production of perennial forage grasses. Mediterranean and temperate populations of Dactylis glomerata L. and Festuca arundinacea (Schreb.) were compared at both Mediterranean and temperate sites in France. By manipulating canopy temperatures and water availability, grass swards in the field were subjected to cumulative summer and spring water deficits (CSSWD) ranging from 329 to 707 mm to test different projected climatic conditions and extreme summer events. Under controlled summer heat waves (6–21 days at a mean daily canopy temperature higher than 30–35 °C), there was no increase in membrane damage to surviving aerial tissues. Plant stress was thus mainly generated through greater soil water deficit. Under the greatest CSSWD, annual biomass production was reduced on average by 60% and 30% with temperate and Mediterranean populations, respectively. Thresholds for a significant increase in summer tiller mortality were seen at CSSWD higher than 450 mm for temperate populations and 550 mm for Mediterranean populations. The latter displayed lower predawn leaf water potentials in summer and recovered through intense tillering in the subsequent seasons. Under the most extreme CSSWD, fewer than 20% of tillers of temperate populations survived and their nitrogen uptake ability was drastically altered. The higher potential productivity of Mediterranean populations in winter was associated with greater frost sensitivity. The identification of thresholds for vulnerability and the determination of the role of genetic diversity will improve the management of plant resilience and the design of new plant material to cope with climate change.     

Sequence of plant responses to droughts of different timescales: lessons from holm oak (Quercus ilex) forests

The functional traits of plants in regions of the world with a Mediterranean climate have been shaped to tolerate periods of water deficit. These species are adapted to summer droughts but may not be able to cope with future increases in drought intensity, duration, and/or frequency. Here, we review the mechanisms and traits of drought resistance and recovery of the well-studied holm oak (Quercus ilex), which we propose as a model species for Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the differences and links between the responses of Q. ilex to summer droughts, extreme droughts, and long-term drought experiments. A main goal was to provide an integral picture of drought responses across organisational and temporal scales for identifying the most relevant processes that are likely to contribute to determining the future of Mediterranean vegetation. Evidence from long-term drought experiments showed that acclimation processes from the molecular (e.g. epigenetic changes) to the ecosystem level (e.g. reductions in stand density) mitigate the effects of drought. Changes in leaf morphology and hydraulics, leaf-to-shoot allometry, and root functioning are among the key mechanisms for overcoming increasing drought. The duration of drought determines its severity in terms of canopy loss and stem mortality. Although Q. ilex can vigorously resprout after such episodes, its resilience may be subsequently reduced. In the future, higher frequency of return of extreme droughts will challenge thus the capacity of these forests to recover. The insights provided by this review of the complex interplay of processes that determine the response of trees to droughts of different duration, intensity, and frequency will also help us to understand the likely responses of other resprouting angiosperms in seasonally dry ecosystems that share similar functional traits with Q. ilex.     

Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches

Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space‐for‐time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.     

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.     

Climate change risks for net primary production of ecosystems in China

Few studies have investigated ecosystem risk under climate change from the perspective of critical thresholds. We presented a framework to assess the climate change risk on ecosystems based on the definition of critical thresholds. Combined with climate scenario, vegetation, and soil data, the Atmosphere Vegetation Interaction Model version 2 was used to simulate net primary productivity in the period of 1961–2080. The thresholds of dangerous and unacceptable impacts were then defined, and climate change risks on ecosystems in China were assessed. Results showed that risk areas will be closely associated with future climate change and will mainly occur in the southwest and northwest areas, Inner Mongolia, the southern part of the northeast areas, and South China. The risk regions will expand to 343.66 Mha in the long term (2051–2080), accounting for 35.80% of China. The risk levels on all ecosystems (eco-regions) are likely to increase continually. The ecosystems of wooded savanna, temperate grassland, and desert grassland, which typically exhibit strong water stress, will have the maximum risk indices in the future. The Northwest Region is likely to be the most vulnerable because of precipitation restrictions and obvious warming. By contrast, Qinghai–Tibet Region will not be so vulnerable to future climate change.     

An improved approach for remotely sensing water stress impacts on forest C uptake

Given that forests represent the primary terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO₂, projections of future carbon (C) storage hinge on forest responses to climate variation. Models of gross primary production (GPP) responses to water stress are commonly based on remotely sensed changes in canopy ‘greenness’ (e.g., normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI). However, many forests have low spectral sensitivity to water stress (SSWS) – defined here as drought‐induced decline in GPP without a change in greenness. Current satellite‐derived estimates of GPP use a vapor pressure deficit (VPD) scalar to account for the low SWSS of forests, but fail to capture their responses to water stress. Our objectives were to characterize differences in SSWS among forested and nonforested ecosystems, and to develop an improved framework for predicting the impacts of water stress on GPP in forests with low SSWS. First, we paired two independent drought indices with NDVI data for the conterminous US from 2000 to 2011, and examined the relationship between water stress and NDVI. We found that forests had lower SSWS than nonforests regardless of drought index or duration. We then compared satellite‐derived estimates of GPP with eddy‐covariance observations of GPP in two deciduous broadleaf forests with low SSWS: the Missouri Ozark (MO) and Morgan Monroe State Forest (MMSF) AmeriFlux sites. Model estimates of GPP that used VPD scalars were poorly correlated with observations of GPP at MO (r² = 0.09) and MMSF (r² = 0.38). When we included the NDVI responses to water stress of adjacent ecosystems with high SSWS into a model based solely on temperature and greenness, we substantially improved predictions of GPP at MO (r² = 0.83) and for a severe drought year at the MMSF (r² = 0.82). Collectively, our results suggest that large‐scale estimates of GPP that capture variation in SSWS among ecosystems could improve predictions of C uptake by forests under drought.