Chemical Composition and In vitro Anthelmintic Activity of Extracts of Tagetes patula Against a Multidrug‐Resistant Isolate of Haemonchus contortus

Sheep breeding has suffered economic losses due to parasitism by gastrointestinal nematodes, particularly Haemonchus contortus. The use of natural products, specifically Tagetes patula, has been suggested as an alternative method of combatting this issue. Chemical analyses of the extracts of this species described in the literature report the presence of important classes of secondary metabolites such as thiophenes, flavonoids, alkaloids, and benzofurans, some of which were identified and isolated in this study. The aim of this work was to test the effect of the essential oil (EO) and the ethanolic extract of the aerial parts (Tp_EtOH) of T. patula on eggs and larvae of H. contortus, through an egg hatch test (EHT) and a larval development test (LDT). In the EHT, the EO showed 100% inhibition at 0.75 mg mL^?1 (LC₅₀ = 0.0780 mg mL^?1), and the Tp_EtOH showed 100% inhibition at 100 mg mL^?1 (LC₅₀ = 12.8 mg mL^?1). In the LDT, the EO showed 100% inhibition at 0.375 mg mL^?1 (LC₅₀ = 0.0400 mg mL^?1), and the Tp_EtOH showed 100% inhibition at 1.56 mg mL^?1 (LC₅₀ = 0.340 mg mL^?1). Compared to available literature data, the results presented here suggest that the crude extracts of T. patula have substantial potential for controlling this nematode by interrupting its life cycle and/or preventing it from reaching the infective stage.     

Climate‐driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Climate change can shape evolution directly by altering abiotic conditions or indirectly by modifying habitats, yet few studies have investigated the effects of climate‐driven habitat change on contemporary evolution. We resampled populations of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) along a latitudinal gradient in California bar‐built estuaries to examine their evolution in response to changing climate and habitat. We took advantage of the strong association between stickleback lateral plate phenotypes and Ectodysplasin A (Eda) genotypes to infer changes in allele frequencies over time. Our results show that over time the frequency of low‐plated alleles has generally increased and heterozygosity has decreased. Latitudinal patterns in stickleback plate phenotypes suggest that evolution at Eda is a response to climate‐driven habitat transformation rather than a direct consequence of climate. As climate change has reduced precipitation and increased temperature and drought, bar‐built estuaries have transitioned from lotic (flowing‐water) to lentic (still‐water) habitats, where the low‐plated allele is favoured. The low‐plated allele has achieved fixation at the driest, hottest southernmost sites, a trend that is progressing northward with climate change. Climate‐driven habitat change is therefore causing a reduction in genetic variation that may hinder future adaptation for populations facing multiple threats.     

Tracking changes in life‐history traits related to unnecessary virulence in a plant‐parasitic nematode

Evaluating trade‐offs in life‐history traits of plant pathogens is essential to understand the evolution and epidemiology of diseases. In particular, virulence costs when the corresponding host resistance gene is lacking play a major role in the adaptive biology of pathogens and contribute to the maintenance of their genetic diversity. Here, we investigated whether life‐history traits directly linked to the establishment of plant–nematode interactions, that is, ability to locate and move toward the roots of the host plant, and to invade roots and develop into mature females, are affected in Meloidogyne incognita lines virulent against the tomato Mi‐1.2 resistance gene. Virulent and avirulent near‐isogenic lines only differing in their capacity to reproduce or not on resistant tomatoes were compared in single inoculation or pairwise competition experiments. Data highlighted (1) a global lack of trade‐off in traits associated with unnecessary virulence with respect to the nematode ability to successfully infest plant roots and (2) variability in these traits when the genetic background of the nematode is considered irrespective of its (a)virulence status. These data suggest that the variation detected here is independent from the adaptation of M. incognita to host resistance, but rather reflects some genetic polymorphism in this asexual organism.     

Climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of koala‐browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future

The koala's Phascolarctos cinereus distribution is currently restricted to eastern and south‐eastern Australia. However, fossil records dating from 70 ± 4 ka (ka = 10³ yr) from south‐western Australia and the Nullarbor Plain are evidence of subpopulation extinctions in the southwest at least after the Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka). We hypothesize that koala sub‐population extinctions resulted from the eastward retraction of the koala's main browse species in response to unsuitable climatic conditions. We further posit a general reduction in the distribution of main koala‐browse trees in the near future in response climate change. We modelled 60 koala‐browse species and constructed a set of correlative species distribution models for five time periods: Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~23–19 ka), Mid‐Holocene (~7–5 ka), present (interpolations of observed data, representative of 1960–1990), and 2070. We based our projections on five hindcasts and one forecast of climatic variables extracted from WorldClim based on two general circulation models (considering the most pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse‐gas emissions) and topsoil clay fraction. We used 17 dates of koala fossil specimens identified as reliable from 70 (± 4) to 535 (± 49) ka, with the last appearance of koalas at 70 ka in the southwest. The main simulated koala‐browse species were at their greatest modelled extent of suitability during the Last Glacial Maximum, with the greatest loss of koala habitat occurring between the Mid‐Holocene and the present. We predict a similar habitat loss between the present and 2070. The spatial patterns of habitat change support our hypothesis that koala extinctions in the southwest, Nullarbor Plain and central South Australia resulted from the eastward retraction of the dominant koala‐browse species in response to long‐term climate changes. Future climate patterns will likely increase the extinction risk of koalas in their remaining eastern ranges.     

Climate‐driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga

The climate‐driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long‐term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool.     

Sap‐feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate‐driven patterns

Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap‐feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant–herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap‐feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750–1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008–2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap‐feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap‐feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome‐shaped relationships between the loads of sap‐feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap‐feeders will increase by 0–45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65–210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap‐feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap‐feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant‐plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems.     

Climate‐associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps

Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could impede the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double‐digest restriction‐site‐associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)‐derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north‐western and south‐eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.     

Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature‐dependent future of the Colorado potato beetle in Europe

A warmer climate may increase the risk of attacks by insect pests on agricultural crops, and questions on how to adapt management practice have created a need for impact models. Phenological models driven by climate data can be used for assessing the potential distribution and voltinism of different insect species, but the quality of the simulations is influenced by a range of uncertainties. In this study, we model the temperature‐dependent activity and development of the Colorado potato beetle, and analyse the influence of uncertainty associated with parameterization of temperature and day length response. We found that the developmental threshold has a major impact on the simulated number of generations per year. Little is known about local adaptations and individual variations, but the use of an upper and a lower developmental threshold gave an indication on the potential variation. The day length conditions triggering diapause are known only for a few populations. We used gridded observed temperature data to estimate local adaptations, hypothesizing that cold autumns can leave a footprint in the population genetics by low survival of individuals not reaching the adult stage before winter. Our study indicated that the potential selection pressure caused by climate conditions varies between European regions. Provided that there is enough genetic variation, a local adaption at the northern distribution limit would reduce the number of unsuccessful initiations and thereby increase the potential for spreading to areas currently not infested. The simulations of the impact model were highly sensitive to biases in climate model data, i.e. systematic deviations in comparison with observed weather, highlightening the need of improved performance of regional climate models. Even a moderate temperature increase could change the voltinism of Leptinotarsa decemlineata in Europe, but knowledge on agricultural practice and strategies for countermeasures is needed to evaluate changes in risk of attacks.     

Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

Environmental factors determining the establishment of the African Long‐legged Buzzard Buteo rufinus cirtensis in Western Europe

Winters have become warmer under the impact of climate change, which has modified the phenology as well as the distribution ranges of birds. The African Long‐legged Buzzard Buteo rufinus cirtensis has recently colonized Europe via the Strait of Gibraltar. We aim to explain the native distribution of this species and to predict favourable areas in newly colonized parts of Europe using geospatial modelling to identify the most influential factors in this process. We applied the favourability function, a generalized linear model describing environmental favourability, for the presence/absence of breeding areas in northern Morocco and the southern Iberian Peninsula, according to a set of variables describing climate, topography, human activity, vegetation and purely spatial trends. A model was built using some known breeding sites in northern Morocco, and was used to forecast future suitable breeding areas in Europe. A second model was built with the available data for northern Morocco and Europe to explain the current distribution of breeding sites. Both models were assessed according to discrimination, calibration and parsimony criteria, and the influence of each factor was analysed using variation partitioning. We conclude that the Iberian Peninsula could provide new suitable areas for the species and facilitate its northward expansion. This result, together with the increasing number of records available, suggests that this species could soon spread throughout Europe. Steady temperatures and abundant but seasonally distributed precipitation showed the strongest predictive power in the models. This indicates a close relationship between the species’ distribution and climate in the study area, and suggests that this species finds its most favourable environments in the Mediterranean biome. Topography and vegetation, specifically cliffs and woods near hunting zones, point to a fine‐scale habitat selection for breeding. As the case of the African Long‐legged Buzzard is not a unique event, our results may be useful to determine whether a northward expansion of the Mediterranean biome could be followed by distribution shifts of bird species that have so far been restricted to Africa.     

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation‐driven carbon emissions: the INPE‐EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE‐EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 Pg C yr^?1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 Mkm² in 2004 to 7 Mkm² in 2010. INPE‐EM process‐based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non‐process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 Pg C yr^?1 in 2009; the non‐process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 Pg C yr^?1. We conclude that the INPE‐EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation‐driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.     

Temperature‐driven shifts in a host‐parasite interaction drive nonlinear changes in disease risk

Climate change may shift the timing and consequences of interspecific interactions, including those important to disease spread. Because hosts and pathogens may respond differentially to climate shifts, however, predicting the net effects on disease patterns remains challenging. Here, we used field data to guide a series of laboratory experiments that systematically evaluated the effects of temperature on the full infection process, including survival, penetration, establishment, persistence, and virulence of a highly pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae), and the development and survival of its amphibian host. Our results revealed nonlinearities in pathology as a function of temperature, which likely resulted from changes in both host and parasite processes. Both hosts and parasites responded strongly to temperature; hosts accelerated development while parasites showed enhanced host penetration but reduced establishment (encystment) and survival outside the host. While there were no differences in host survival among treatments, we observed a mid‐temperature peak in parasite‐induced deformities (63% at 20 °C), with the lowest frequency of deformities (12%) occurring at the highest temperature (26 °C). This nonlinear effect could result from temperature‐driven changes in parasite burden owing to shifts in host penetration and/or clearance, reductions in host vulnerability owing to faster development, or both. Furthermore, despite strong temperature‐driven changes in parasite penetration, survival, and establishment, the opposing nature of these effects lead to no difference in tadpole parasite burdens shortly after infection. These findings suggest that temperature‐driven changes to the disease process may not be easily observable from comparison of parasite burdens alone, but multi‐tiered experiments quantifying the responses of hosts, parasites and their interactions can enhance our ability to predict temperature‐driven changes to disease risk. Climate‐driven changes to disease patterns will therefore depend on underlying shifts in host and parasite development rates and the timing of their interactions.     

Climate‐driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies’ niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change

The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long‐term, large‐scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large‐scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.     

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

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Geographical and temporal variation of multiple paternity in invasive mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki,Gambusia affinis)

Multiple paternity (MP) increases offspring's genetic variability, which could be linked to invasive species' evolvability in novel distribution ranges. Shifts in MP can be adaptive, with greater MP in harsher/colder environments or towards the end of the reproductive season, but climate could also affect MP indirectly via its effect on reproductive life histories. We tested these hypotheses by genotyping N = 2,903 offspring from N = 306 broods of two closely related livebearing fishes, Gambusia holbrooki and Gambusia affinis. We sampled pregnant females across latitudinal gradients in their invasive ranges in Europe and China, and found more sires per brood and a greater reproductive skew towards northern sampling sites. Moreover, examining monthly sampling from two G. affinis populations, we found MP rates to vary across the reproductive season in a northern Chinese, but not in a southern Chinese population. While our results confirm an increase of MP in harsher/more unpredictable environments, path analysis indicated that, in both cases, the effects of climate are likely to be indirect, mediated by altered life histories. In both species, which rank amongst the 100 most invasive species worldwide, higher MP at the northern edge of their distribution probably increases their invasive potential and favours range expansions, especially in light of the predicted temperature increases due to global climate changes.     

Carbon dioxide‐ and temperature‐mediated changes in plant defensive compounds alter food utilization of herbivores

Although the impact of elevated carbon dioxide and rising temperature on plants and animals has been extensively documented recently, only limited understanding exists regarding their combined effects. The objective of this research was to address the consequences of using combinations of elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature on a plant's defensive chemistry, and subsequent utilization of the plant as insect food. Our results indicated that elevated CO₂ and increased temperature, for the most part, act independently on the production of defensive compounds in broccoli leaves (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica). CO₂ concentrations had significant effects on the foliar water content, total phenolic compounds, polyphenol oxidase and trypsin inhibitor concentrations. The herbivore Spodoptera litura (Fabricius; Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) responded to changes in the plant secondary chemistry, with larvae consuming more plant materials that had been exposed to elevated CO₂. The food utilization efficiencies of second‐instar larvae were more sensitive to CO₂‐treated foliage than those of the third‐ and fourth‐instar larvae. Temperature did exert a significant effect on food utilization (ECD) by the larvae. Our study will provide important information in future predictions on plant–insect interactions as a result of climate change. The study also demonstrated that since various larval stages might respond differently to climate change, this possibility needs to be considered in future forecasting and monitoring.     

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time‐series spanning 1913–2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod – mostly in the deeper, northern‐ and north‐easternmost parts of the North Sea – is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century – mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries‐independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish.