Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog,Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species‐level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine‐scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine‐scale microsatellite‐based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average F_ST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low‐ and high‐altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Family‐level variation in early life‐cycle traits of kelp

Temperate kelp forests (Laminarians) are threatened by temperature stress due to ocean warming and photoinhibition due to increased light associated with canopy loss. However, the potential for evolutionary adaptation in kelp to rapid climate change is not well known. This study examined family‐level variation in physiological and photosynthetic traits in the early life‐cycle stages of the ecologically important Australasian kelp Ecklonia radiata and the response of E. radiata families to different temperature and light environments using a family × environment design. There was strong family‐level variation in traits relating to morphology (surface area measures, branch length, branch count) and photosynthetic performance (F_v/F_m) in both haploid (gametophyte) and diploid (sporophyte) stages of the life‐cycle. Additionally, the presence of family × environment interactions showed that offspring from different families respond differently to temperature and light in the branch length of male gametophytes and oogonia surface area of female gametophytes. Negative responses to high temperatures were stronger for females vs. males. Our findings suggest E. radiata may be able to respond adaptively to climate change but studies partitioning the narrow vs. broad sense components of heritable variation are needed to establish the evolutionary potential of E. radiata to adapt under climate change.     

Temperature sensitivity of biomass‐specific microbial exo‐enzyme activities and CO2 efflux is resistant to change across short‐ and long‐term timescales

Accurate representation of temperature sensitivity (Q₁₀) of soil microbial activity across time is critical for projecting soil CO₂ efflux. As microorganisms mediate soil carbon (C) loss via exo‐enzyme activity and respiration, we explore temperature sensitivities of microbial exo‐enzyme activity and respiratory CO₂ loss across time and assess mechanisms associated with these potential changes in microbial temperature responses. We collected soils along a latitudinal boreal forest transect with different temperature regimes (long‐term timescale) and exposed these soils to laboratory temperature manipulations at 5, 15, and 25°C for 84 days (short‐term timescale). We quantified temperature sensitivity of microbial activity per g soil and per g microbial biomass at days 9, 34, 55, and 84, and determined bacterial and fungal community structure before the incubation and at days 9 and 84. All biomass‐specific rates exhibited temperature sensitivities resistant to change across short‐ and long‐term timescales (mean Q₁₀ = 2.77 ± 0.25, 2.63 ± 0.26, 1.78 ± 0.26, 2.27 ± 0.25, 3.28 ± 0.44, 2.89 ± 0.55 for β‐glucosidase, N‐acetyl‐β‐d ‐glucosaminidase, leucine amino peptidase, acid phosphatase, cellobiohydrolase, and CO₂ efflux, respectively). In contrast, temperature sensitivity of soil mass‐specific rates exhibited either resilience (the Q₁₀ value changed and returned to the original value over time) or resistance to change. Regardless of the microbial flux responses, bacterial and fungal community structure was susceptible to change with temperature, significantly differing with short‐ and long‐term exposure to different temperature regimes. Our results highlight that temperature responses of microbial resource allocation to exo‐enzyme production and associated respiratory CO₂ loss per unit biomass can remain invariant across time, and thus, that vulnerability of soil organic C stocks to rising temperatures may persist in the long term. Furthermore, resistant temperature sensitivities of biomass‐specific rates in spite of different community structures imply decoupling of community constituents and the temperature responses of soil microbial activities.     

Sap‐feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate‐driven patterns

Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap‐feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant–herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap‐feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750–1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008–2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap‐feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap‐feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome‐shaped relationships between the loads of sap‐feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap‐feeders will increase by 0–45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65–210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap‐feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap‐feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant‐plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems.     

Development characteristics of the box‐tree moth Cydalima perspectalis and its potential distribution in Europe

The box‐tree moth Cydalima perspectalis (Walker) is an invasive pest causing severe damage to box trees (Buxus spp.). It is native to Japan, Korea and China, but established populations have been recorded in a number of locations across Europe since 2007 and the spread of the insect continues. The developmental investigations suggest that larvae overwinter mainly in their 3rd instar in Europe and that diapause is induced by a day length of about 13.5 h. One and a half to 2 months in the cold are necessary to terminate diapause. Threshold temperatures for development and number of degree‐days to complete a generation are slightly different from those calculated in previous studies in Japan. A bioclimatic (CLIMEX^®) model for C. perspectalis in Europe was developed, based on climate, ecological and developmental parameters from the literature and new field and laboratory studies on diapause termination, thermal requirements and phenology. The model was then validated with actual distribution records and phenology data. The current distribution and life history of C. perspectalis in Europe were consistent with the predicted distribution. The climate model suggests that C. perspectalis is likely to continue its spread across Europe, except for Northern Fenno‐Scandinavia, Northern Scotland and high mountain regions. The northern distribution of C. perspectalis is expected to be limited by a number of degree‐days above the temperature threshold insufficient to complete a generation, whereas its southern range is limited by the absence of a cold period necessary to resume diapause. The model predicts relatively high Ecoclimatic Indices throughout most of Europe, suggesting that the insect has the potential of becoming a pest in most of its predicted range. However, damage is likely to be higher in Southern and Central Europe where the moth is able to complete at least two generations per year.     

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European‐wide study

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO₂ effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982–2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040–2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process‐based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr^?1). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO₂ effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO₂ effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.     

Large‐scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011

We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950–2011 to study the long‐term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long‐term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO₂ annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO₂ uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.     

Plant response to climate change along the forest‐tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia

Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth–climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km²) in northeastern Siberia using satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring‐width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (T_s) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMI_gy). Mean summer NDVI (NDVI_s) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub‐dominated areas. NDVI_s positively correlated (P < 0.05) with T_s across 56% of the watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMI_gy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring‐width measurements from nine sites revealed that year‐to‐year (i.e., high‐frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P < 0.05) with June temperature (r = 0.40) and prior summer CMI (r = 0.40) from 1938 to 2007. An unexplained multi‐decadal (i.e., low‐frequency) decline in annual basal area increment (BAI) occurred following the mid‐20th century, but over the NDVI record there was no trend in mean BAI (P > 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVI_s (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982–2007). Both satellite and tree‐ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations.     

Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high‐valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions

Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long‐term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity “hotspots” is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (H_d = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas’ D = ?0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (F_ST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (N_m = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species’ habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity “hotspots.” The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic “hotspots” are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity “hotspots” and provided fundamental information for the species’ future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.     

Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease,the Phytophthora alni‐induced alder decline

Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni‐induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline.     

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe – comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer‐than‐present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought‐sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX‐Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX‐Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st‐century multimodel ensemble results for the high‐emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north‐western and southern Europe. Mid‐Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north‐east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer‐than‐present conditions in central Europe.     

Rapid loss of an ecosystem engineer: Sphagnum decline in an experimentally warmed bog

Sphagnum mosses are keystone components of peatland ecosystems. They facilitate the accumulation of carbon in peat deposits, but climate change is predicted to expose peatland ecosystem to sustained and unprecedented warming leading to a significant release of carbon to the atmosphere. Sphagnum responses to climate change, and their interaction with other components of the ecosystem, will determine the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. We measured the growth and productivity of Sphagnum in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, where ten 12.8‐m‐diameter plots were exposed to a range of whole‐ecosystem (air and soil) warming treatments (+0 to +9°C) in ambient or elevated (+500 ppm) CO₂. The experiment is unique in its spatial and temporal scale, a focus on response surface analysis encompassing the range of elevated temperature predicted to occur this century, and consideration of an effect of co‐occurring CO₂ altering the temperature response surface. In the second year of warming, dry matter increment of Sphagnum increased with modest warming to a maximum at 5°C above ambient and decreased with additional warming. Sphagnum cover declined from close to 100% of the ground area to <50% in the warmest enclosures. After three years of warming, annual Sphagnum productivity declined linearly with increasing temperature (13–29 g C/m² per °C warming) due to widespread desiccation and loss of Sphagnum. Productivity was less in elevated CO₂ enclosures, which we attribute to increased shading by shrubs. Sphagnum desiccation and growth responses were associated with the effects of warming on hydrology. The rapid decline of the Sphagnum community with sustained warming, which appears to be irreversible, can be expected to have many follow‐on consequences to the structure and function of this and similar ecosystems, with significant feedbacks to the global carbon cycle and climate change.     

Experimental warming alters the community composition,diversity, and N2 fixation activity of peat moss (Sphagnum fallax) microbiomes

Sphagnum‐dominated peatlands comprise a globally important pool of soil carbon (C) and are vulnerable to climate change. While peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are known to harbor diverse microbial communities that mediate C and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands, the effects of climate change on Sphagnum microbiome composition and functioning are largely unknown. We investigated the impacts of experimental whole‐ecosystem warming on the Sphagnum moss microbiome, focusing on N₂ fixing microorganisms (diazotrophs). To characterize the microbiome response to warming, we performed next‐generation sequencing of small subunit (SSU) rRNA and nitrogenase (nifH) gene amplicons and quantified rates of N₂ fixation activity in Sphagnum fallax individuals sampled from experimental enclosures over 2 years in a northern Minnesota, USA bog. The taxonomic diversity of overall microbial communities and diazotroph communities, as well as N₂ fixation rates, decreased with warming (p < 0.05). Following warming, diazotrophs shifted from a mixed community of Nostocales (Cyanobacteria) and Rhizobiales (Alphaproteobacteria) to predominance of Nostocales. Microbiome community composition differed between years, with some diazotroph populations persisting while others declined in relative abundance in warmed plots in the second year. Our results demonstrate that warming substantially alters the community composition, diversity, and N₂ fixation activity of peat moss microbiomes, which may ultimately impact host fitness, ecosystem productivity, and C storage potential in peatlands.     

Adaptive divergence along environmental gradients in a climate‐change‐sensitive mammal

In the face of predicted climate change, a broader understanding of biotic responses to varying environments has become increasingly important within the context of biodiversity conservation. Local adaptation is one potential option, yet remarkably few studies have harnessed genomic tools to evaluate the efficacy of this response within natural populations. Here, we show evidence of selection driving divergence of a climate‐change‐sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), distributed along elevation gradients at its northern range margin in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia (BC), Canada. We employed amplified‐fragment‐length‐polymorphism‐based genomic scans to conduct genomewide searches for candidate loci among populations inhabiting varying environments from sea level to 1500 m. Using several independent approaches to outlier locus detection, we identified 68 candidate loci putatively under selection (out of a total 1509 screened), 15 of which displayed significant associations with environmental variables including annual precipitation and maximum summer temperature. These candidate loci may represent important targets for predicting pika responses to climate change and informing novel approaches to wildlife conservation in a changing world.     

Biotic interactions influence the projected distribution of a specialist mammal under climate change

Aim

To measure the effects of including biotic interactions on climate‐based species distribution models (SDMs) used to predict distribution shifts under climate change. We evaluated the performance of distribution models for an endangered marsupial, the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica), comparing models that used only climate variables with models that also took into account biotic interactions.

Location

North‐east Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We developed separate climate‐based distribution models for the northern bettong, its two main resources and a competitor species. We then constructed models for the northern bettong by including climate suitability estimates for the resources and competitor as additional predictor variables to make climate + resource and climate + resource + competition models. We projected these models onto seven future climate scenarios and compared predictions of northern bettong distribution made by these differently structured models, using a ‘global’ metric, the I similarity statistic, to measure overlap in distribution and a ‘local’ metric to identify where predictions differed significantly.

Results

Inclusion of food resource biotic interactions improved model performance. Over moderate climate changes, up to 3.0 °C of warming, the climate‐only model for the northern bettong gave similar predictions of distribution to the more complex models including interactions, with differences only at the margins of predicted distributions. For climate changes beyond 3.0 °C, model predictions diverged significantly. The interactive model predicted less contraction of distribution than the simpler climate‐only model.

Main conclusions

Distribution models that account for interactions with other species, in particular direct resources, improve model predictions in the present‐day climate. For larger climate changes, shifts in distribution of interacting species cause predictions of interactive models to diverge from climate‐only models. Incorporating interactions with other species in SDMs may be needed for long‐term prediction of changes in distribution of species under climate change, particularly for specialized species strongly dependent on a small number of biotic interactions.     

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate‐driven range dynamics of Laurus since the Pliocene

Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio‐Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum‐entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid‐Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO₂‐doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long‐term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re‐open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress.     

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield,phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Viticulture is a key socio‐economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980–2005) and future (2041–2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO₂ physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO₂ partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.     

Vegetation productivity patterns at high northern latitudes: a multi‐sensor satellite data assessment

Satellite‐derived indices of photosynthetic activity are the primary data source used to study changes in global vegetation productivity over recent decades. Creating coherent, long‐term records of vegetation activity from legacy satellite data sets requires addressing many factors that introduce uncertainties into vegetation index time series. We compared long‐term changes in vegetation productivity at high northern latitudes (>50°N), estimated as trends in growing season NDVI derived from the most widely used global NDVI data sets. The comparison included the AVHRR‐based GIMMS‐NDVI version G (GIMMS_g) series, and its recent successor version 3g (GIMMS_3g), as well as the shorter NDVI records generated from the more modern sensors, SeaWiFS, SPOT‐VGT, and MODIS. The data sets from the latter two sensors were provided in a form that reduces the effects of surface reflectance associated with solar and view angles. Our analysis revealed large geographic areas, totaling 40% of the study area, where all data sets indicated similar changes in vegetation productivity over their common temporal record, as well as areas where data sets showed conflicting patterns. The newer, GIMMS_3g data set showed statistically significant (α = 0.05) increases in vegetation productivity (greening) in over 15% of the study area, not seen in its predecessor (GIMMS_g), whereas the reverse was rare (<3%). The latter has implications for earlier reports on changes in vegetation activity based on GIMMS_g, particularly in Eurasia where greening is especially pronounced in the GIMMS_3g data. Our findings highlight both critical uncertainties and areas of confidence in the assessment of ecosystem‐response to climate change using satellite‐derived indices of photosynthetic activity. Broader efforts are required to evaluate NDVI time series against field measurements of vegetation growth, primary productivity, recruitment, mortality, and other biological processes in order to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change over large areas.     

Multi‐factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far‐reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO₂, warming, drought) in a Danish heathland ecosystem. The experiment was established in 2005 as a full factorial split‐plot with 6 blocks × 2 levels of CO₂ × 2 levels of warming × 2 levels of drought = 48 plots. In 2008, we exposed 432 larvae (n = 9 per plot) of the heather beetle (Lochmaea suturalis Thomson ), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO₂ (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under the drought treatment, and there was a three‐way interaction between time, CO₂, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO₂ were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co‐acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers.