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1.
Environmental temperature can alter the composition, diversity, and function of ectothermic vertebrate gut microbial communities, which may result in negative consequences for host physiology, or conversely, increase phenotypic plasticity and persistence in harsh conditions. The magnitude of either of these effects will depend on the length of time animals are exposed to extreme temperatures, and how quickly the composition and function of the gut microbiota can respond to temperature change. However, the temporal effects of temperature on gut microbiota are currently unknown. Here, we investigated the length of time required for increased temperature to alter the composition of gut bacterial communities in tadpoles of two frog species, the green frog, Lithobates clamitans, and its congener, the globally invasive American bullfrog, L. catesbeianus. We also explored the potential functional consequences of these changes by comparing predicted metagenomic profiles across temperature treatments at the last experimental time point. Bullfrog‐associated microbial communities were more plastic than those of the green frog. Specifically, bullfrog communities were altered by increased temperature within hours, while green frog communities took multiple days to exhibit significant changes. Further, over ten times more bullfrog bacterial functional pathways were temperature‐dependent compared to the green frog. These results support our hypothesis that bullfrog gut microbial communities would respond more rapidly to temperature change, potentially bolstering their ability to exploit novel environments. More broadly, we have revealed that even short‐term increases in environmental temperature, expected to occur frequently under global climate change, can alter the gut microbiota of ectothermic vertebrates.  相似文献   

2.
In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole‐community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer + wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real‐world species and landscapes.  相似文献   

3.
Calling behaviour is strongly temperature‐dependent and critical for sexual selection and reproduction in a variety of ectothermic taxa, including anuran amphibians, which are the most globally threatened vertebrates. However, few studies have explored how species respond to distinct thermal environments at time of displaying calling behaviour, and thus it is still unknown whether ongoing climate change might compromise the performance of calling activity in ectotherms. Here, we used new audio‐trapping techniques (automated sound recording and detection systems) between 2006 and 2009 to examine annual calling temperatures of five temperate anurans and their patterns of geographical and seasonal variation at the thermal extremes of species ranges, providing insights into the thermal breadths of calling activity of species, and the mechanisms that enable ectotherms to adjust to changing thermal environments. All species showed wide thermal breadths during calling behaviour (above 15 °C) and increases in calling temperatures in extremely warm populations and seasons. Thereby, calling temperatures differed both geographically and seasonally, both in terrestrial and aquatic species, and were 8–22 °C below the specific upper critical thermal limits (CTmax) and strongly associated with the potential temperatures of each thermal environment (operative temperatures during the potential period of breeding). This suggests that calling behaviour in ectotherms may take place at population‐specific thermal ranges, diverging when species are subjected to distinct thermal environments, and might imply plasticity of thermal adjustment mechanisms (seasonal and developmental acclimation) that supply species with means of coping with climate change. Furthermore, the thermal thresholds of calling at the onset of the breeding season were dissimilar between conspecific populations, suggesting that other factors besides temperature are needed to trigger the onset of reproduction. Our findings imply that global warming would not directly inhibit calling behaviour in the study species, although might affect other temperature‐dependent features of their acoustic communication system.  相似文献   

4.
Aim Climatic factors are known to influence species distributions. However, elucidating the underlying mechanisms is challenging because direct and indirect effects of climatic and non‐climatic factors are correlated. In the absence of this covariation and at fine‐grain resolutions the direct effect of climate via physiological constraints should be stronger on the distributions of ectothermic organisms. So far, no comprehensive study has explicitly tested the influence of climate on species distributions by quantitatively comparing ectothermic and endothermic vertebrates. Location Peninsular Spain. Methods Presence–absence data of native terrestrial vertebrates in Peninsular Spain were modelled using generalized additive models to disentangle the influence of climate and other contemporary correlated factors (topography and plant cover). We performed partial regressions to partition the deviance explained by climatic and non‐climatic effects into independent and shared components. We compared the independent contributions of climatic and non‐climatic effects between ectothermic and endothermic vertebrates, and among mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians. Results After reducing the covariation with non‐climatic factors, climate explained a greater proportion of deviance in ectotherms than in endotherms. Also, the contribution of temperature was highest for reptiles, and the contribution of precipitation was highest for amphibians, after extracting their overlaps with precipitation and temperature, respectively. The contribution of topography and plant cover remained high for birds after extracting the overlap with climate. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the prediction that, at fine resolutions, the direct influence of climate (via physiological constraints) on range distributions is stronger in ectothermic vertebrates. Also, at least for birds, indirect effects of climate (via plant productivity) and other habitat characteristics remained relatively important once their covariation with climate was reduced. This study shows that controlling the direct effects of climate by their indirect effects and/or other correlated factors, combined with comparisons among functional groups, can be a useful approach to elucidate causal links with the spatial patterns of organisms.  相似文献   

5.
To predict long‐term responses to climate change, we need to understand how changes in temperature and precipitation elicit both immediate phenotypic responses and changes in natural selection. We used 22 years of data for the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus to examine how climate influences flowering phenology and phenotypic selection on phenology. Plants flowered earlier in springs with higher temperatures and higher precipitation. Early flowering was associated with a higher fitness in nearly all years, but selection for early flowering was significantly stronger in springs with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Climate influenced selection through trait distributions, mean fitness and trait?fitness relationships, the latter accounting for most of the among‐year variation in selection. Our results show that climate both induces phenotypic responses and alters natural selection, and that the change in the optimal phenotype might be either weaker, as for spring temperature, or stronger, as for precipitation, than the optimal response.  相似文献   

6.
Understanding the temporal dynamics of communities is crucial to predict how communities respond to climate change. Several factors can promote variation in phenology among species, including tracking of seasonal resources, adaptive responses to other species, demographic stochasticity, and physiological constraints. The activities of ectothermic vertebrates are sensitive to climatic variations due to the effect of temperature and humidity on species physiology. However, most studies on temporal dynamics have analyzed multi‐year data and do not have resolution to discriminate within‐year patterns that can determine community assembly cycles. Here, we tested the temporal stability and synchrony of calling activity and also how climatic variables influence anuran species composition throughout the year in a metacommunity in the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. Using a multivariate method, we described how the relationship between species composition and climatic variables changes through time. The metacommunity showed a weak synchronous spatial pattern, meaning that species responded independently to environmental variation. Interestingly, species composition exhibited a nonstationary response to climate, suggesting that climate affects species composition differently depending on the season. The species‐climate relationship was stronger during the spring, summer, and winter, mainly influenced by temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Thus, temporal community dynamics seem to be mediated by species life‐history traits, in which independent fluctuations promote community stability in temporally varying environments.  相似文献   

7.
Aim To identify hypotheses for how climate change affects long‐term population persistence that can be used as a framework for future syntheses of ecological responses to climate change. Location Global. Methods We surveyed ecological and evolutionary concepts related to how a changing climate might alter population persistence. We organized established concepts into a two‐stage framework that relates abiotic change to population persistence via changes in the rates or outcomes of ecological and evolutionary processes. We surveyed reviews of climate change responses, and evaluated patterns in light of our conceptual framework. Results We classified hypotheses for population responses to climate change as one of two types: (1) hypotheses that relate rates of ecological and evolutionary processes (plasticity, dispersal, population growth and evolution) to abiotic change, and (2) hypotheses that relate changes in these processes to four fundamental population‐level responses (colonization, acclimatization, adaptation or extinction). We found that a disproportionate emphasis on response in the climate change literature is difficult to reconcile with ecological and evolutionary theories that emphasize processes. We discuss a set of 24 hypotheses that represent gaps in the literature that limit our ability determine whether observed climate change responses are sufficient to facilitate persistence through future climate change. Main conclusions Though theory relates environmental change to fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes and population‐level responses, clear hypotheses based on theory have not been systematically formulated and tested in the context of climate change. Stronger links between basic theory and observed impacts of climate change are required to assess which responses are common, likely or able to facilitate population persistence despite ongoing environmental change. We anticipate that a hypothesis‐testing framework will reveal that indirect effects of climate change responses are more pervasive than previously thought and related to a few general processes, even though the patterns they create are incredibly diverse.  相似文献   

8.
Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long‐term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community‐level responses to long‐term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL.  相似文献   

9.
Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short‐time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response.  相似文献   

10.
11.
Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population‐level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype–environment association analysis, we identify potential climate‐adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.  相似文献   

12.
Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.  相似文献   

13.
Climate change is currently one of the main driving forces behind changes in species distributions, and understanding the mechanisms that underpin macroecological patterns is necessary for a more predictive science. Warming sea water temperatures are expected to drive changes in ectothermic marine species ranges due to their thermal tolerance levels. Here, we develop a mechanistic tool to predict size‐ and season‐specific distributions based on the physiology of the species and the temperature and food conditions in the sea. The effects of climate conditions on physiological‐based habitat utilization was then examined for different size‐classes of two commercially important fish species in the North Sea, plaice, Pleuronectes platessa, and sole, Solea solea. The two species provide an attractive comparison as they differ in their physiology (e.g. preferred temperature range). Combining dynamic energy budget (DEB) models with the temperature and food conditions estimated by an ecosystem model (ERSEM), allowed spatial differences in potential growth (as a proxy for habitat quality) to be estimated for 2 years with contrasting temperature and food conditions. The resulting habitat quality maps were in broad agreement with observed ontogenetic and seasonal changes in distribution as well as with the recent changes in distribution which could be attributed to an increase in coastal temperatures. Our physiological‐based model provides a powerful tool to explore the effect of climate change on the spatio‐temporal fish dynamics, predict effects of local or broad‐scale environmental changes and provide a physiological basis for observed changes in species distributions.  相似文献   

14.
Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate‐related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co‐occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad‐scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population‐level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.  相似文献   

15.
Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global‐change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land‐use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global‐change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global‐change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global‐change drivers, with species‐specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus’ growth, highlighting species‐specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus’ growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global‐change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth.  相似文献   

18.
Climate is predicted to change rapidly in the current century, which may lead to shifts of species' ranges, reduced populations and extinctions. Predicting the responses of species abundance to climate change can provide valuable information to quantify climate change impacts and inform their management and conservation, but most studies have been limited to changes in habitat area due to a lack of abundance data. Here, we use generalized linear model and Bayesian information criteria to develop a predictive model based on the abundance of the grey‐headed robin (GHR) and the data of climatic environmental variables. The model is validated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation and equivalence tests. The responses of GHR abundance, population size and habitat area by elevation are predicted under the current climate and 15 climate change scenarios. The model predicts that when temperature increases, abundance of GHR displays a positive response at high elevation, but a negative response at low elevation. High precipitation at the higher elevations is a limiting factor to GHR and any reduction in precipitation at high elevation creates a more suitable environment, leading to an increase in abundance of GHR, whereas changes in precipitation have little impact at low elevation. The loss of habitat is much more than would otherwise be assumed in response to climate change. Temperature increase is the predominant factor leading to habitat loss, whereas changes in precipitation play a secondary role. When climate changes, the species not only loses part of its habitat but also suffers a loss in its population size in the remaining habitat. Population size declines more than the habitat area under all considered climate change scenarios, which implies that the species might become extinct long before the complete loss of its habitat. This study suggests that some species might experience much more severe impacts from climate change than predicted from models of habitat area alone. Management policies based on predictions of habitat area decline using occurrence data need to be re‐evaluated and alternative measures need to be developed to conserve species in the face of rapid climate change.  相似文献   

19.
We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.  相似文献   

20.
Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)‐based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier‐based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association‐based (Isolation‐By‐Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long‐established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long‐established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species’ responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species’ distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.  相似文献   

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