Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio‐climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs “hindcasting” of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species‐specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white‐beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time‐scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.     

The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species

Genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, yet few studies assess the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on intraspecific genetic variation. In this review, we highlight the importance of incorporating neutral and non‐neutral genetic diversity when assessing the impacts of GCC, for example, in studies that aim to predict the future distribution and fate of a species or ecological community. Specifically, we address the following questions: Why study the effects of GCC on intraspecific genetic diversity? How does GCC affect genetic diversity? How is the effect of GCC on genetic diversity currently studied? Where is potential for future research? For each of these questions, we provide a general background and highlight case studies across the animal, plant and microbial kingdoms. We further discuss how cryptic diversity can affect GCC assessments, how genetic diversity can be integrated into studies that aim to predict species' responses on GCC and how conservation efforts related to GCC can incorporate and profit from inclusion of genetic diversity assessments. We argue that studying the fate of intraspecifc genetic diversity is an indispensable and logical venture if we are to fully understand the consequences of GCC on biodiversity on all levels.     

How future climate and tree distribution changes shape the biodiversity of macrofungi across Europe

Aim

Climate change is affecting biodiversity at an accelerating rate. Despite the importance of fungi in ecosystems in general, and in the global carbon and nitrogen cycle in particular, there is little research on the response of fungi to climate change compared with plants and animals. Earlier studies show that climatic factors and tree species are key determinants of macrofungal diversity and distribution at large spatial scales. However, our knowledge of how climate change will affect macrofungal diversity and distribution in the future remains poorly understood.

Location

Europe.

Methods

Using openly available occurrence data of 1845 macrofungal species from eight European countries (i.e. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain), we built ensemble species distribution models to predict macrofungal response to climate change alone and combined climate and tree distribution change under the IPCC special report on 2080 emissions scenarios (SRES A2 and B2).

Results

Considering climate change alone, we predict that about 77% (74.1%–80.7%) of the modelled species will expand their distribution range, and around 57% (56.1%–58.4%) of the modelled area will have an increase in macrofungal species richness. However, when considering the combined climate and tree species distribution change, only 50% (50%–50.9%) of the species are predicted to expand their distribution range and 49% (47.4%–51.1%) of the modelled area will experience an increase in macrofungal species richness.

Main Conclusions

Overall, our models projected that large areas would exhibit increased macrofungal species richness under future climate change. However, tree species distribution might play a restrictive role in the future distributional shifts of macrofungi. In addition, macrofungal responses appear heterogeneous, varying among species and regions. Our findings highlight the importance of including tree species in the projection of climate change impacts on the macrofungal diversity and distribution on a continental scale.     

A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags

While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented, few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms, including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson, a long-lived Namib Desert tree, together with data from repeat photographs, we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a 'fingerprint' of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result, due to anthropogenic climate change, of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species' tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but, as yet, there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future, despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts, a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species' migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma 's response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

An attack on two fronts: predicting how changes in land use and climate affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates

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Flowering range changes across an elevation gradient in response to warming summer temperatures

Many studies have demonstrated plant response to warming temperatures, both as advancement in the timing of phenological events and in range shifts. Mountain gradients are ideal laboratories for studying species range changes. In this study of 363 plant species in bloom collected in five segments across a 1200 m (4158 ft) elevation gradient, we look for changes in species flowering ranges over a 20-year period. Ninety-three species (25.6%) exhibited a significant change in the elevation at which they flowered from the first half to the second half of the record, with many of these changes occurring at higher elevations. Most of the species exhibiting the changes were perennial plants. Interestingly, though many changes in flowering range were specific to higher elevations, range changes occurred all across the gradient. The changes reported in this study are concurrent with significant increases in summer temperatures across the region and are consistent with observed changes around the globe.     

Contemporary perspectives on the niche that can improve models of species range shifts under climate change

Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity.     

Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands

Aim

Understanding how grain size affects our ability to characterize species responses to ongoing climate change is of crucial importance in the context of an increasing awareness for the substantial difference that exists between coarse spatial resolution macroclimatic data sets and the microclimate actually experienced by organisms. Climate change impacts on biodiversity are expected to peak in mountain areas, wherein the differences between macro and microclimates are precisely the largest. Based on a newly generated fine-scale environmental data for the Canary Islands, we assessed whether data at 100 m resolution is able to provide more accurate predictions than available data at 1 km resolution. We also analysed how future climate suitability predictions of island endemic bryophytes differ depending on the grain size of grids.

Location

Canary Islands.

Time period

Present (1979–2013) and late-century (2071–2100).

Taxa

Bryophytes.

Methods

We compared the accuracy and spatial predictions using ensemble of small models for 14 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species. We used two climate data sets: CHELSA v1.2 (~1 km) and CanaryClim v1.0 (100 m), a downscaled version of the latter utilizing data from local weather stations. CanaryClim also encompasses future climate data from five individual model intercomparison projects for three warming shared socio-economic pathways.

Results

Species distribution models generated from CHELSA and CanaryClim exhibited a similar accuracy, but CanaryClim predicted buffered warming trends in mid-elevation ridges. CanaryClim consistently returned higher proportions of newly suitable pixels (8%–28%) than CHELSA models (0%–3%). Consequently, the proportion of species predicted to occupy pixels of uncertain suitability was higher with CHELSA (3–8 species) than with CanaryClim (0–2 species).

Main conclusions

The resolution of climate data impacted the predictions rather than the performance of species distribution models. Our results highlight the crucial role that fine-resolution climate data sets can play in predicting the potential distribution of both microrefugia and new suitable range under warming climate.     

Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change

We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species'' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.     

Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

Simulation of potential range expansion of oak disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi under climate change

This study examines the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogens, Phytophthora cinnamomi. In Europe, the winter survival of the pathogen is the dominant cue for the development of the disease it causes to oaks, especially Quercus robur and Q. rubra. The potential pathogen and disease geographic ranges were compared in France between two reference periods, 1968–1998 and 2070–2099. Simulations were obtained by combining a physiologically based approach predicting the pathogen winter survival in relation to microhabitat temperature (in the phloem of infected trees) with a regionalized climatic scenario derived from a global circulation model. Positive anomalies in winter temperatures calculated with this scenario were in the range 0.5–5°C between the periods 2070–2099 and the 1968–1998, according to sites and months. As a consequence, higher annual rates of P. cinnamomi survival were predicted, resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century. Based on this example, the study emphasizes the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on the biotic constraint constituted by plant pathogens.     

Differential effects of past climate warming on mountain and flatland species distributions: a multispecies North American mammal assessment

Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast, flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude, and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions and anova s were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain‐dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant, only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition, there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland‐dwelling than in mountain‐dwelling species. Main conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species’ range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions, thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses.     

Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Distributions of potential ranges of plant species are not yet fully known in Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict distributions of suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana under current and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) in Ethiopia. Eleven environmental variables with less correlation coefficients (r < 0.7) were used to make the prediction. Shifting in extents of habitat suitability and effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios were statistically analysed using independent t-test and linear model. We found decreasing area of highly suitable habitat from 0.51% to 0.46%, 0.36% and 0.33%, 0.24% for Prunus africana and 1.13% to 1.02%, 0.77% and 0.76%, 0.60% for Pouteria adolfi-friederici, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2070 respectively. Moist and dry afromontane forests are identified as the most suitable habitat for both species. Overall, our results suggest that climate change can promote dynamic suitable habitat niches under different future climate scenarios. Therefore, biodiversity conservation strategies should take into account habitat suitability dynamics issues and identify where to conserve species before implementing conservation practices.     

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.     

Distribution of cryptic blue oat mite species in Australia: current and future climate conditions

• 1 Invertebrate pests, such as blue oat mites Penthaleus spp., cause significant economic damage to agricultural crops in Australia. Climate is a major driver of invertebrate species distributions and climate change is expected to shift pest assemblages and pest prevalence across Australia. At this stage, little is known of how individual species will respond to climate change.
• 2 We have mapped the current distribution for each of the three pest Penthaleus spp. in Australia and built ecological niche models for each species using the correlative modelling software, maxent . Predictor variables useful for describing the climate space of each species were determined and the models were projected into a range of future climate change scenarios to assess how climate change may alter species‐specific distribution patterns in Australia.
• 3 The distributions of the three cryptic Penthaleus spp. are best described with different sets of climatic variables. Suitable climate space for all species decreases under the climate change scenarios investigated in the present study. The models also indicate that the assemblage of Penthaleus spp. is likely to change across Australia, particularly in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.
• 4 These results show the distributions of the three Penthaleus spp. are correlated with different climatic variables, and that regional control of mite pests is likely to change in the future. A further understanding of ecological and physiological processes that may influence the distribution and pest status of mites is required.

     

Multiple dispersal vectors drive range expansion in an invasive marine species

The establishment and subsequent spread of invasive species is widely recognized as one of the most threatening processes contributing to global biodiversity loss. This is especially true for marine and estuarine ecosystems, which have experienced significant increases in the number of invasive species with the increase in global maritime trade. Understanding the rate and mechanisms of range expansion is therefore of significant interest to ecologists and conservation managers alike. Using a combination of population genetic surveys, environmental DNA (eDNA) plankton sampling and hydrodynamic modelling, we examined the patterns of introduction of the predatory Northern Pacific seastar (Asterias amurensis) and pathways of secondary spread within southeast Australia. Genetic surveys across the invasive range reveal some genetic divergence between the two main invasive regions and no evidence of ongoing gene flow, a pattern that is consistent with the establishment of the second invasive region via a human‐mediated translocation event. In contrast, hydrodynamic modelling combined with eDNA plankton sampling demonstrated that the establishment of range expansion populations within a region is consistent with natural larval dispersal and recruitment. Our results suggest that both anthropogenic and natural dispersal vectors have played an important role in the range expansion of this species in Australia. The multiple modes of spread combined with high levels of fecundity and a long larval duration in A. amurensis suggests it is likely to continue its range expansion and significantly impact Australian marine ecosystems.