Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing

Remote sensing‐derived wheat crop yield‐climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo‐sensitive periods (anthesis and grain‐filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north‐west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start‐of‐season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature‐induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands.     

Susceptibility to a metal under global warming is shaped by thermal adaptation along a latitudinal gradient

Global warming and contamination represent two major threats to biodiversity that have the potential to interact synergistically. There is the potential for gradual local thermal adaptation and dispersal to higher latitudes to mitigate the susceptibility of organisms to contaminants and global warming at high latitudes. Here, we applied a space‐for‐time substitution approach to study the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae to zinc in a common garden warming experiment (20 and 24 °C) with replicated populations from three latitudes spanning >1500 km in Europe. We observed a striking latitude‐specific effect of temperature on the zinc‐induced mortality pattern; local thermal adaptation along the latitudinal gradient made Swedish, but not French, damselfly larvae more susceptible to zinc at 24 °C. Latitude‐ and temperature‐specific differences in zinc susceptibility may be related to the amount of energy available to defend against and repair damage since Swedish larvae showed a much stronger zinc‐induced reduction of food intake at 24 °C. The pattern of local thermal adaptation indicates that the predicted temperature increase of 4 °C by 2100 will strongly magnify the impact of a contaminant such as zinc at higher latitudes unless there is thermal evolution and/or migration of lower latitude genotypes. Our results underscore the critical importance of studying the susceptibility to contaminants under realistic warming scenarios taking into account local thermal adaptation across natural temperature gradients.     

Genetic variation underlies temperature tolerance of embryos in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma armigera

Ocean warming can alter natural selection on marine systems, and in many cases, the long‐term persistence of affected populations will depend on genetic adaptation. In this study, we assess the potential for adaptation in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma armigera, an Australian endemic, that is experiencing unprecedented increases in ocean temperatures. We used a factorial breeding design to assess the level of heritable variation in larval hatching success at two temperatures. Fertilized eggs from each full‐sibling family were tested at 22 °C (current spawning temperature) and 25 °C (upper limit of predicted warming this century). Hatching success was significantly lower at higher temperatures, confirming that ocean warming is likely to exert selection on this life‐history stage. Our analyses revealed significant additive genetic variance and genotype‐by‐environment interactions underlying hatching success. Consistent with prior work, we detected significant nonadditive (sire‐by‐dam) variance in hatching success, but additionally found that these interactions were modified by temperature. Although these findings suggest the potential for genetic adaptation, any evolutionary responses are likely to be influenced (and possibly constrained) by complex genotype‐by‐environment and sire‐by‐dam interactions and will additionally depend on patterns of genetic covariation with other fitness traits.     

Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivium) varieties?

Extreme climate, especially temperature, can severely reduce wheat yield. As global warming has already begun to increase mean temperature and the occurrence of extreme temperatures, it has become urgent to accelerate the 5–20 year process of breeding for new wheat varieties, to adapt to future climate. We analyzed the patterns of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt based on 50 years of historical records (1960–2009) for 2864 weather stations. Flowering dates of three contrasting‐maturity wheat varieties were simulated for a wide range of sowing dates in 22 locations for ‘current’ climate (1960–2009) and eight future scenarios (high and low CO₂ emission, dry and wet precipitation scenarios, in 2030 and 2050). The results highlighted the substantial spatial variability of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt in current and future climates. As both ‘last frost’ and ‘first heat’ events would occur earlier in the season, the ‘target’ sowing and flowering windows (defined as risk less than 10% for frost (<0 °C) and less than 30% for heat (>35 °C) around flowering) would be shifted earlier by up to 2 and 1 month(s), respectively, in 2050. A short‐season variety would require a shift in target sowing window 2‐fold greater than long‐ and medium‐season varieties by 2050 (8 vs. 4 days on average across locations and scenarios, respectively), but would suffer a lesser decrease in the length of the vegetative period (4 vs. 7 days). Overall, warmer winters would shorten the wheat season by up to 6 weeks, especially during preflowering. This faster crop cycle is associated with a reduced time for resource acquisition, and potential yield loss. As far as favourable rain and modern equipment would allow, early sowing and longer season varieties (i.e. in current climate) would be the best strategies to adapt to future climates.     

Thermal‐specific patterns of longevity and fecundity in a set of heat‐sensitive and heat‐resistant genotypes of Drosophila melanogaster

Fitness‐related traits are often affected by temperature. Heat‐resistant genotypes could influence the dependence of fitness traits on temperature, which should be important in adaptation to directional changes in temperature including global warming. Here, we tested temperature‐dependent variation in longevity and fecundity between Drosophila melanogaster Meigen (Diptera: Drosophilidae) genotypes that differ in heat‐resistance QTL. Longevity and fecundity were affected by heat‐resistance genotypes at constant moderate and high temperature. However, these differences between heat‐resistant and heat‐sensitive genotypes disappeared in a cyclic thermal regime. Analysis with the logistic mortality function indicated that mortality patterns are dependent on temperature and genotype. The results suggest that genotype*temperature interactions are substantial for senescence‐related traits. In particular, fluctuating temperatures can drastically reduce any differences in life‐history traits between heat‐resistance genotypes, even if such genotypes differentially affect the traits at constant temperatures.     

Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO₂ concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO₂ effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.     

1994 - 2002年小麦品种(系)抗条锈性鉴定与监测

1994—2002年经对3822份小麦品种(系)材料抗条锈性鉴定结果表明,冬小麦抗条锈性优于春小麦,甘肃品种抗条锈性优于国内其它省区品种。田间抗条锈性监测结果表明,我国主要生产品种均表现感病,甘肃主要生产品种仅陇鉴127等少数几个品种抗病,抗源材料中也仅有中四等少数品种表现抗病,结合抗病性鉴定、监测结果及田间综合农艺性状观察,筛选出20余份可供育种利用的抗源材料。同时在针对今后抗条中31、32号等主要小种类型的抗病育种、抗病性监测等方面进行了讨论。     

Synthetic hexaploid wheat enhances variation and adaptive evolution of bread wheat in breeding processes

Synthetic hexaploid wheat (SHW) that combines novel and elite genes from the tetraploid wheat Triticum turgidum L. and wild ancestor Aegilops tauschii Coss., has been used to genetically improve hexaploid common wheat. The abundant genetic diversity in SHW can effectively make breakthroughs in wheat genetic improvement through the inclusion of increased variation. In this paper, we reviewed the current advances in research and utilization of the primary SHW lines and SHW-derived wheat varieties that have enhanced evolution of modern wheat under conditions of natural and artificial selection in southwestern China. Using primary SHW lines, four high-yielding wheat varieties have been developed. In addition, using the SHW-derived varieties as breeding parents, 12 new wheat varieties were also developed. Results of genotype–phenotype and fingerprint analysis showed that the introgressed alleles from SHW lines have contributed a great number of elite characters to the new wheat varieties, and these elite characters include disease resistance, more spikes per plant, more grains per spike, larger grains, and higher grain-yield potential. We found that the primary SHW lines and SHW-derived varieties have identifiable effects to enhance genetic variation and adaptive evolution of modern hexaploid wheat, which significantly increased the grain yields of hexaploid wheat in recent years. These findings have significant implications in the breeding of high-yielding wheat varieties resistant to biotic and abiotic stresses using SHW as genetic resources.     

Functional mapping of N deficiency‐induced response in wheat yield‐component traits by implementing high‐throughput phenotyping

As overfertilization leads to environmental concerns and the cost of N fertilizer increases, the issue of how to select crop cultivars that can produce high yields on N‐deficient soils has become crucially important. However, little information is known about the genetic mechanisms by which crops respond to environmental changes induced by N signaling. Here, we dissected the genetic architecture of N‐induced phenotypic plasticity in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) by integrating functional mapping and semiautomatic high‐throughput phenotyping data of yield‐related canopy architecture. We identified a set of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that determined the pattern and magnitude of how wheat cultivars responded to low N stress from normal N supply throughout the wheat life cycle. This analysis highlighted the phenological landscape of genetic effects exerted by individual QTLs, as well as their interactions with N‐induced signals and with canopy measurement angles. This information may shed light on our mechanistic understanding of plant adaptation and provide valuable information for the breeding of N‐deficiency tolerant wheat varieties.     

Potential feedback mediated by soil microbiome response to warming in a glacier forefield

Mountain glaciers are retreating at an unprecedented rate due to global warming. Glacier retreat is widely believed to be driven by the physiochemical characteristics of glacier surfaces; however, the current knowledge of such biological drivers remains limited. An estimated 130 Tg of organic carbon (OC) is stored in mountain glaciers globally. As a result of global warming, the accelerated microbial decomposition of OC may further accelerate the melting process of mountain glaciers by heat production with the release of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane. Here, using short‐term aerobic incubation data from the forefield of Urumqi Glacier No. 1, we assessed the potential climate feedback mediated by soil microbiomes at temperatures of 5°C (control), 6.2°C (RCP 2.6), 11°C (RCP 8.5), and 15°C (extreme temperature). We observed enhanced CO₂‐C release and heat production under warming conditions, which led to an increase in near‐surface (2 m) atmospheric temperatures, ranging from 0.9°C to 3.4°C. Warming significantly changed the structures of the RNA‐derived (active) and DNA‐derived (total) soil microbiomes, and active microbes were more sensitive to increased temperatures than total microbes. Considering the positive effects of temperature and deglaciation age on the CO₂‐C release rate, the alterations in the active microbial community structure had a negative impact on the increased CO₂‐C release rate. Our results revealed that glacial melting could potentially be significantly accelerated by heat production from increased microbial decomposition of OC. This risk might be true for other high‐altitude glaciers under emerging warming, thus improving the predictions of the effects of potential feedback on global warming.     

Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain,since 1980s

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain‐filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change.     

Post‐heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China

Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat‐growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat‐growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post‐heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post‐heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat‐producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere.     

The problem of durable resistance of plants to different pests

Different hypotheses concerning durable plant resistance against different pest were tested: 1) resistance is weak and polygenetically controlled; 2) resistance depends on "residual effect" of oligogenes that were overcome by pests. Contrast pair of plants and pests were used in experiments: wheat, barley--facultative parasite Bipolaris sorokiniana Shoem., wheat--obligate parasite Puccinia recondita Rob. ex Desm., sorghum--greenbug Schizaphis graminum Rond. Differential interaction between parasite and host plant resulted in their increased compatibility under long reproduction of parasite on resistant varieties were regarded as criteria of quick overcoming of resistance. The results did not support any hypothesis. The rate of adaptation of B. sorokiniana to the resistant varieties of wheat and barley did not depend on the level of resistance expression (weak, moderate or strong) and genetic control (oligogenic, polygenic or cytoplasmatic). It was shown by hybridological analysis that "residual effect" of oligogenes of sorghum resistance against greenbug depended on small resistance genes, that can be independent or weakly connected with marker oligogene. These data allows to doubt in phenomenon of "residual effect" of oligogenes. It was shown that non specific pathogenicity of parasitic fungi increased during their reproductions on sensitive varieties of plants. Thus, cultivation of sensitive varieties causes damage of crop culture non only because of their own losses, but also by increasing the infection of moderately resistant varieties.     

The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields

With current annual production at over 600 million tonnes, wheat is the third largest crop in the world behind corn and rice, and an essential source of carbohydrates for millions of people. While wheat is grown over a wide range of environments, it is common in the major wheat‐producing countries for grain filling to occur when soil moisture is declining and temperature is increasing. Average global temperatures have increased over the last decades and are predicted to continue rising, along with a greater frequency of extremely hot days. Such events have already been reported for major wheat growing regions in the world. However, the direct impact of past temperature variability and changes in averages and extremes on wheat production has not been quantified. Attributing changes in observed yields over recent decades to a single factor such as temperature is not possible due to the confounding effects of other factors. By using simulation modelling, we were able to separate the impact of temperature from other factors and show that the effect of temperature on wheat production has been underestimated. Surprisingly, observed variations in average growing‐season temperatures of ±2 °C in the main wheat growing regions of Australia can cause reductions in grain production of up to 50%. Most of this can be attributed to increased leaf senescence as a result of temperatures >34 °C. Temperature conditions during grain filling in the major wheat growing regions of the world are similar to the Australian conditions during grain filling. With average temperatures and the frequency of heat events projected to increase world‐wide with global warming, yield reductions due to higher temperatures during the important grain‐filling stage alone could substantially undermine future global food security. Adaptation strategies need to be considered now to prevent substantial yield losses in wheat from increasing future heat stress.     

Examining the genetic diversity of the orange blossom wheat midge,Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin), across North America

The orange blossom wheat midge, Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), is a significant pest of wheat (Triticum spp.) grown in the Northern Hemisphere. It was accidently introduced to North America over 200 years ago and has subsequently spread throughout the northern Great Plains. Since 2010, several Canadian spring wheat varieties containing the resistance gene Sm1 have been released. Due to the potential of wheat midge populations to evolve virulent biotypes to Sm1, cultivars containing Sm1 are grown with a susceptible cultivar in an interspersed refuge. An understanding of the genetic diversity of wheat midge populations could provide important information on the potential development of resistance to Sm1. In the current study, we used two mitochondrial genes (CO1 and ND4) from wheat midge collected across the northern Great Plains and Québec in North America to assess population structure and genetic diversity. We found limited genetic diversity and population structure across the sampled North American populations. We also assessed North American haplotype similarity to wheat midge collected from Europe and China and found high similarity between North American and European populations, although sampling in Europe was limited. This supports the hypothesis that North American populations originated from Europe.     

Quantitative studies of the post-penetration phase of infection by Puccinia graminis tritici

Data obtained during the first 120 h after several resistant and susceptible varieties of wheat and some non-host species were inoculated with uredio-spores of Puccinia graminis tritici provided further evidence in support of the suggestion that hypersensitive necrosis is a consequence, and not the cause, of resistance. No evidence was obtained that individual genes for stem-rust resistance specifically influenced colony growth or the histological changes that occurred during infection. However, combinations of major resistance genes or the presence of minor genes for resistance apparently did affect colony growth and hypersensitive cell collapse. Three groups of varieties – resistant, intermediate and susceptible – were distinguished on the basis of colony growth and the amount and proportion of necrotic tissue associated with colony development. The boundary between the intermediate and susceptible groups was not as distinct as that between the intermediate and resistant groups.     

Adapt,move or die – how will tropical coral reef fishes cope with ocean warming?

Previous studies hailed thermal tolerance and the capacity for organisms to acclimate and adapt as the primary pathways for species survival under climate change. Here we challenge this theory. Over the past decade, more than 365 tropical stenothermal fish species have been documented moving poleward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2–3 °C above long‐term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species – a thermally sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) – to use preference behaviour to regulate its body temperature. Movement could potentially circumvent the physiological stress response associated with elevated temperatures and may be a strategy relied upon before genetic adaptation can be effectuated. Individuals were maintained at one of six temperatures (23, 25, 27, 29, 31 and 33 °C) for at least 6 weeks. We compared the relative importance of acclimation temperature to changes in upper critical thermal limits, aerobic metabolic scope and thermal preference. While acclimation temperature positively affected the upper critical thermal limit, neither aerobic metabolic scope nor thermal preference exhibited such plasticity. Importantly, when given the choice to stay in a habitat reflecting their acclimation temperatures or relocate, fish acclimated to end‐of‐century predicted temperatures (i.e. 31 or 33 °C) preferentially sought out cooler temperatures, those equivalent to long‐term summer averages in their natural habitats (~29 °C). This was also the temperature providing the greatest aerobic metabolic scope and body condition across all treatments. Consequently, acclimation can confer plasticity in some performance traits, but may be an unreliable indicator of the ultimate survival and distribution of mobile stenothermal species under global warming. Conversely, thermal preference can arise long before, and remain long after, the harmful effects of elevated ocean temperatures take hold and may be the primary driver of the escalating poleward migration of species.     

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short‐term and long‐term natural soil warming

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming‐induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground‐level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short‐ and long‐term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming‐driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high‐latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming‐induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C‐sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate change.     

Local genetic adaptation generates latitude‐specific effects of warming on predator–prey interactions

Temperature effects on predator–prey interactions are fundamental to better understand the effects of global warming. Previous studies never considered local adaptation of both predators and prey at different latitudes, and ignored the novel population combinations of the same predator–prey species system that may arise because of northward dispersal. We set up a common garden warming experiment to study predator–prey interactions between Ischnura elegans damselfly predators and Daphnia magna zooplankton prey from three source latitudes spanning >1500 km. Damselfly foraging rates showed thermal plasticity and strong latitudinal differences consistent with adaptation to local time constraints. Relative survival was higher at 24 °C than at 20 °C in southern Daphnia and higher at 20 °C than at 24 °C, in northern Daphnia indicating local thermal adaptation of the Daphnia prey. Yet, this thermal advantage disappeared when they were confronted with the damselfly predators of the same latitude, reflecting also a signal of local thermal adaptation in the damselfly predators. Our results further suggest the invasion success of northward moving predators as well as prey to be latitude‐specific. We advocate the novel common garden experimental approach using predators and prey obtained from natural temperature gradients spanning the predicted temperature increase in the northern populations as a powerful approach to gain mechanistic insights into how community modules will be affected by global warming. It can be used as a space‐for‐time substitution to inform how predator–prey interaction may gradually evolve to long‐term warming.