广义Rothermel模型预测平地无风条件下红松蒙古栎林地表混合可燃物的火行为

以帽儿山地区红松-蒙古栎林下地表混合可燃物为材料,进行不同含水率、载量和混合比例的室内点烧试验,观测得到蔓延速率、驻留时间、反应强度、火线强度和火焰长度,并与采用表面积加权法和载量加权法的广义Rothermel模型预测值进行比较.结果表明： 广义Rothermel模型对红松 蒙古栎林下地表混合可燃物的林火蔓延速率、反应强度的预测平均绝对误差分别为0.04 m·min^-1、77 kW·m^-2,预测平均相对误差分别为16%、22%;对驻留时间、火线强度和火焰长度的预测偏低,预测平均绝对误差分别为15.5 s、17.3 kW·m^-1和9.7 cm,预测平均相对误差分别为55.5%、48.7%和24%.这些误差可以看成是用该模型预测同类可燃物相应火行为的误差下限.两种加权算法对模型预测精度影响差异不大,当红松可燃物所占比重较小时,表面积加权法得到的蔓延速率和反应强度预测值精度较高,载量加权法得到的火线强度和火焰长度预测值精度较高;当红松可燃物所占比重较大时,结果则相反.     

红松人工林地表可燃物火蔓延速率预测模型

红松人工林因其枝叶内油脂含量较高而具有极高的火灾风险,地表火蔓延是其火灾扩展的主要方式,研究地表火蔓延速率预测模型可以为红松人工林的火灾扑救工作提供科学指导。本研究以黑龙江省帽儿山地区红松人工林地表可燃物为研究对象,设置不同的可燃物含水率(5%、15%、25%)、载量(0.5、0.7、0.9、1.1 kg?m^-2)和坡度(0°、10°、20°、30°、40°),模拟野外可燃物床层特征进行室内点烧试验,使用热电偶法测定蔓延速率,根据实测蔓延速率对比分析Rothermel模型、修正后Rothermel模型和随机森林模型的预测精度,评估预测红松人工林地表火蔓延速率的最优模型。结果表明：直接使用Rothermel模型预测红松人工林地表火蔓延速率整体效果较好,但对于高坡度、高含水率条件下的蔓延速率预测效果不理想。重新拟合坡度参数后的Rothermel模型与随机森林模型预测效果均较好,且预测精度相近,但随机森林模型因其本身特性,还需进一步进行评估和验证。修正后的Rothermel模型更适合预测0°～40°坡度下的红松人工林地表火蔓延速率。     

平地无风条件下蒙古栎阔叶床层的火行为Ⅱ.火焰长度和驻留时间影响因子分析与预测模型

以帽儿山地区蒙古栎凋落叶的含水率、载量和床层高度为控制变量,模拟野外凋落叶床层状态,进行了100次平地无风条件下的室内点烧试验,分析含水率、载量和床层高度对火焰长度和驻留时间的影响,并建立了多元线性预测模型.结果表明： 含水率与火焰长度呈极显著线性负相关(P<0.01),与驻留时间的线性关系并不显著(P>0.05);载量、床层高度与火焰长度和驻留时间均呈极显著线性正相关(P<0.01).床层高度与含水率、载量的交互作用对火焰长度有显著影响;含水率与载量、床层高度的交互作用对驻留时间有显著影响.火焰长度预测模型的预测效果较好,能解释火焰长度83.3%的变异,平均绝对误差为7.8 cm,平均相对误差为16.2%;驻留时间预测模型的效果略差,仅能解释驻留时间54%的变异,平均绝对误差为9.2 s,平均相对误差为18.6%.     

平地无风条件下蒙古栎阔叶床层的火行为Ⅰ.蔓延速率影响因子与预测模型

以东北林业大学帽儿山实验林场蒙古栎次生林下的蒙古栎凋落叶片为材料,根据研究地区同类可燃物的野外条件,在实验室内构建了不同载量、高度和含水率的可燃物床层,进行100次平地无风条件下的点烧试验.结果表明：平地无风条件下蒙古栎阔叶床层的林火蔓延速率不超过0.5 m·min^-1;可燃物含水率、床层载量和高度对蒙古栎阔叶床层的林火蔓延速率具有显著影响;含水率对林火蔓延速率的影响与可燃物床层高度、载量等无显著关系,而可燃物床层高度对林火蔓延速率的影响与可燃物床层载量有关.可燃物床层压缩比对蒙古栎阔叶床层的林火蔓延速率影响不大.以可燃物含水率、床层载量和高度为预测因子的林火蔓延速率预测模型能解释83%的林火蔓延速率变差,模型的平均绝对误差为0.04 m·min^-1,平均相对误差不超过17%.     

平地无风条件下蒙古栎阔叶床层的火行为Ⅰ.蔓延速率影响因子与预测模型

以东北林业大学帽儿山实验林场蒙古栎次生林下的蒙古栎凋落叶片为材料,根据研究地区同类可燃物的野外条件,在实验室内构建了不同载量、高度和含水率的可燃物床层,进行100次平地无风条件下的点烧试验.结果表明：平地无风条件下蒙古栎阔叶床层的林火蔓延速率不超过0.5 m·min^-1;可燃物含水率、床层载量和高度对蒙古栎阔叶床层的林火蔓延速率具有显著影响;含水率对林火蔓延速率的影响与可燃物床层高度、载量等无显著关系,而可燃物床层高度对林火蔓延速率的影响与可燃物床层载量有关.可燃物床层压缩比对蒙古栎阔叶床层的林火蔓延速率影响不大.以可燃物含水率、床层载量和高度为预测因子的林火蔓延速率预测模型能解释83%的林火蔓延速率变差,模型的平均绝对误差为0.04 m·min^-1,平均相对误差不超过17%.     

疏伐对北京西山林场刺槐林可燃物特征及碳储量影响研究

研究选取北京西山林场刺槐林(Robinia pseudoacacia)为研究对象, 通过对照组 CK 和处理组L、M 和 H(疏伐强度分别为0%, 15%, 35%,50%)四种处理, 对疏伐后刺槐林可燃物进行调查, 对不同强度疏伐刺槐林林地上部分碳储量进行计算, 并利用BehavePlus 林火模型对地表火行为指标进行计算, 探讨不同疏伐强度对刺槐林可燃物、碳储量以及潜在火行为的影响。结果表明,(1)不同疏伐强度的刺槐林的可燃物分布中, 均以0-2 m 层可燃物负荷量为最大, 分别为1.29 kg·m^–2, 1.40 kg·m^–2,1.57 kg·m^–2, 1.89 kg·m^–2, 呈现出可燃物负荷量随疏伐强度加大而增加, 即, H >M>L>CK; 随着高度的增加, 可燃物负荷量主要分布冠层在5-8 m; (2)不同强度疏伐对刺槐人工林各组分的碳储量影响显著, 中度疏伐更有利于刺槐林中的碳储量积累, 其碳储量值最大, 为17.50 t·hm^–2; (4)林分火蔓延速率、火线强度、火焰高度及单位面积发热量均与疏伐强度相关, 疏伐后火行为指标值大幅下降, 其中高强度疏伐(H)后, 林火的蔓延速率, 火线强度为以及火焰强度最低。研究结果可为研究地区的森林可燃物管理以及森林可持续经营提供科学依据。     

西南林区森林火灾火行为模拟模型评价

林火火行为特征是进行及时有效的林火预防和扑救的重要技术参考,国外普遍做法是借助火行为模拟模型进行获取.本文选用美国和加拿大行业普遍使用的Farsite和Prometheus火行为模拟模型对发生在中国西南林区的安宁“3·29”森林大火进行模拟,通过对比模拟结果和相关林火资料,定量评价模型的模拟精度.结果表明: 在蔓延范围模拟方面,Farsite在Scott可燃物模型下的模拟精度最高,Prometheus最差,但差距不大,Farsite与Prometheus火场范围的差异区主要集中在云南松分布区;在蔓延速度(ROS)模拟方面,Farsite在2种可燃物模型下的平均ROS模拟输出最接近实际情况,Prometheus则偏离实际情况较远,Farsite与Prometheus的ROS差异区主要集中在云南松分布区;在火线强度(FLI)模拟方面,Farsite在2种可燃物模型下的平均FLI模拟输出结果类似,Farsite与Prometheus的输出差异较大,差异区主要集中在栎类灌木分布区.     

平地无风条件下蒙古栎阔叶床层的火行为Ⅲ.火线强度、可燃物消耗和燃烧效率分析及预测模型

以东北地区针阔混交林重要建群种和伴生种蒙古栎为对象,在平地无风条件下进行室内点烧试验,分析含水率、载量和厚度对蒙古栎凋落叶床层火线强度、消耗量和燃烧效率的影响,并对相关模型进行了验证.结果表明: 含水率、载量和床层厚度对蒙古栎凋落叶床层火线强度、消耗量和燃烧效率均有显著影响,并且3个指标之间存在交互作用.在已有模型中,Byram模型需参数调整后方可用于本地凋落叶可燃物,其重新估计的α、β拟合值分别为98.009和1.099,得到的预测值均方根误差为8.676 kW·m^-1,平均相对误差为21.0%, R²为0.745.对Albini提出的燃烧效率模型参数a、b的重新估计值分别为0.069和0.169,得到的预测值均在93.0%以上,绝大多数偏高.Consume模型适用性较强.新建立的火线强度、消耗量和燃烧效率的一般线性模型调整后的R²分别为0.82、0.73和0.53,均方根误差分别为8.266 kW·m^-1、0.081 kg·m^-2和0.203.在低强度地表火中,细小可燃物可能不会被完全消耗,现有一些系统中将凋落叶和细小可燃物按全部消耗处理,将高估碳的释放量.     

南宁老虎岭松栎公益林的火潜势评估

以南宁老虎岭松栎公益林为例,介绍了可燃物特征分类系统(FCCS)的使用方法。研究了FCCS所需数据的采集方法、输入方法和计算结果的解读,探讨了环境变量的输入对地表火行为预测值的影响。结果表明:老虎岭松栎公益林在调查期间(2013年4—5月)的反应强度和蔓延速度均很低。如果环境变得干旱,达到FCCS的D2L2水分含量阈值时,3号样地类型的公益林(28年生马尾松疏林)有高的火潜势、反应强度和蔓延速度。FCCS可以输入样地调查数据,提供的预测结果符合实际,可以用来指导森林火管理决策,识别高风险林分优先进行可燃物处理。     

大兴安岭典型林分地表死可燃物含水率动态变化及预测模型

对春季和秋季大兴安岭地区西林吉林业局山杨-白桦混交林、落叶松林、樟子松林、落叶松-白桦混交林、白桦林5种典型林分不同坡位地表细小死可燃物含水率动态进行研究,构建了不同季节防火期、不同林分地表死可燃物含水率的预测模型,并分析了其预测误差.结果表明: 相同林分地表可燃物含水率在春季和秋季差异显著;在相同季节相同林分下不同坡位可燃物含水率存在差异.采用Nelson模型对地表死可燃物含水率预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)的平均值为0.13,略低于Simard模型(0.14),明显低于气象要素回归模型(0.25).Nelson和Simard模型的预测效果好于气象要素回归模型.秋季模型对地表死可燃物含水率的预测精度好于春季模型和春季秋季混合模型.     

Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure

It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.     

Effects of mountain pine beetle on fuels and expected fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests, Colorado, USA

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1-3 yrs], Grey [4-10 yrs], and Old-MPB [～30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30-55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25-35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior.     

Effects of experimental fuel additions on fire intensity and severity: unexpected carbon resilience of a neotropical forest

Global changes and associated droughts, heat waves, logging activities, and forest fragmentation may intensify fires in Amazonia by altering forest microclimate and fuel dynamics. To isolate the effects of fuel loads on fire behavior and fire‐induced changes in forest carbon cycling, we manipulated fine fuel loads in a fire experiment located in southeast Amazonia. We predicted that a 50% increase in fine fuel loads would disproportionally increase fire intensity and severity (i.e., tree mortality and losses in carbon stocks) due to multiplicative effects of fine fuel loads on the rate of fire spread, fuel consumption, and burned area. The experiment followed a fully replicated randomized block design (N = 6) comprised of unburned control plots and burned plots that were treated with and without fine fuel additions. The fuel addition treatment significantly increased burned area (+22%) and consequently canopy openness (+10%), fine fuel combustion (+5%), and mortality of individuals ≥5 cm in diameter at breast height (dbh; +37%). Surprisingly, we observed nonsignificant effects of the fuel addition treatment on fireline intensity, and no significant differences among the three treatments for (i) mortality of large trees (≥30 cm dbh), (ii) aboveground forest carbon stocks, and (iii) soil respiration. It was also surprising that postfire tree growth and wood increment were higher in the burned plots treated with fuels than in the unburned control. These results suggest that (i) fine fuel load accumulation increases the likelihood of larger understory fires and (ii) single, low‐intensity fires weakly influence carbon cycling of this primary neotropical forest, although delayed postfire mortality of large trees may lower carbon stocks over the long term. Overall, our findings indicate that increased fine fuel loads alone are unlikely to create threshold conditions for high‐intensity, catastrophic fires during nondrought years.     

Negative fire feedback in a transitional forest of southeastern Amazonia

Anthropogenic understory fires affect large areas of tropical forest, particularly during severe droughts. Yet, the mechanisms that control tropical forests' susceptibility to fire remain ambiguous. We tested the widely accepted hypothesis that Amazon forest fires increase susceptibility to further burning by conducting a 150 ha fire experiment in a closed-canopy forest near the southeastern Amazon forest–savanna boundary. Forest flammability and its possible determinants were measured in adjacent 50 ha forest plots that were burned annually for 3 consecutive years (B3), once (B1), and not at all (B0). Contrary to expectation, an annual burning regime led to a decline in forest flammability during the third burn. Microclimate conditions were more favorable compared with the first burn (i.e. vapor pressure deficit increased and litter moisture decreased), yet flame heights declined and burned area halved. A slight decline in fine fuels after the second burn appears to have limited fire spread and intensity. Supporting this conclusion, fire spread rates doubled and burned area increased fivefold in B3 subplots that received fine fuel additions. Slow replacement of surface fine fuels in this forest may be explained by (i) low leaf litter production (4.3 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), half that of other Amazon forests; and (ii) low fire-induced tree and liana mortality (5.5±0.5% yr⁻¹, SE, in B3), the lowest measured in closed-canopy Amazonian forests. In this transitional forest, where severe seasonal drought removed moisture constraints on fire propagation, a lack of fine fuels inhibited the intensity and spread of recurrent fire in a negative feedback. This reduction in flammability, however, may be short-lived if delayed tree mortality or treefall increases surface fuels in future years. This study highlights that understanding fuel input rate and timing relative to fire frequency is fundamental to predicting transitional forest flammability – which has important implications for carbon emissions and potential replacement by scrub vegetation.     

不同烈度林火对油松林潜在地表火行为的影响

油松是我国华北地区代表性树种之一,含有丰富油脂,容易引发大面积高烈度森林火灾。阐明不同烈度林火对油松林地表可燃物负荷量和潜在地表火行为的影响,对于油松林林火管理具有重要意义。以辽河源自然保护区2014年不同烈度林火干扰后油松林分为研究对象,根据不同烈度(重度、中度、轻度)和对照(未过火)分别设置3块20 m×20 m样地,共12块样地,调查地表可燃物和林分结构指标,结合室内实验,利用BehavePlus 5.0软件进行潜在火行为模拟,探讨不同烈度林火5年后油松林地表可燃物负荷量和潜在地表火行为特点,并分析影响潜在地表火行为的主要因素。研究结果表明：(1)不同烈度林火之间,细小可燃物负荷量和地表可燃物总负荷量均不存在显著性差异(P>0.05)。(2)不同烈度林火后,在不同风速和可燃物含水率条件下,油松林潜在地表火蔓延速度、火线强度不存在显著性差异(P>0.05),单位面积发热量、火焰高度、反应强度存在显著性差异(P<0.05)。(3)不同烈度林火后油松林潜在地表火行为主要受油松更新幼苗基径、灌木负荷量、油松平均冠幅、上层枯叶负荷量、油松更新幼苗密度的影响。研究结果表明不...     

基于气象因子的森林火灾面积预测模型

通过统计分析理论研究了黑龙江省林火发生规律,并建立了基于气象因子的森林火灾面积预测模型．结果表明：兴安落叶松林区林火主要发生在4-6月和10月,阔叶红松林区林火主要发生在3-6月和10月;利用林火发生当日的平均风速、相对湿度和平均温度的取值范围可知,兴安落叶松林区发生高等级林火概率较大的月份依次为4月、5月和6月,阔叶红松林区则依次为5月、4月和3月．所建模型的平均精度达到63．3％,能够较精确地预测林火发生后林地可能的过火面积．