How should we be selecting our graduate students?

We use many quantitative undergraduate metrics to help select our graduate students, but which of these usefully discriminate successful from underperforming students and which should be ignored? Almost everyone has his or her own pet theory of the most predictive criteria, but I hoped to address this question in a more unbiased manner. I conducted a retrospective analysis of the highest- and lowest-ranked graduate students over the past 20 years in the Tetrad program at the University of California at San Francisco to identify undergraduate metrics that significantly differed between these groups. Only the number of years of research experience and subject graduate record exams (GREs) were strong discriminators between the highest- and lowest-ranked students, whereas many other commonly used admissions metrics (analytical, verbal, and quantitative GREs, grade point average, and ranking of undergraduate institution) showed no correlation with graduate performance. These are not necessarily the same criteria that matter at other graduate programs, but I would urge faculty elsewhere to conduct similar analyses to improve the admissions process and to minimize the use of useless metrics in selecting our students.     

Detecting climate change induced range shifts: Where and how should we be looking?

Abstract: Global climate warming is expected to cause systematic shifts in the distribution of species and consequently increase extinction risk. Conservation managers must be able to detect, measure and accurately predict range shifts in order to mitigate impacts on biodiversity. However, important responses to climate change may go unnoticed or be dismissed if we fail to collect sufficient baseline data and apply the most sensitive analytical tests. Here we use randomizations of a contemporary data set on rainforest birds of north‐eastern Australia to quantify the sensitivity of three measures for assessing range shifts along altitudinal gradients. We find that smaller range shifts are detectable by analysing change in the mean altitude of presence records rather than upper or lower range boundaries. For a moderate survey effort of 96 surveys, measurements of change in the mean altitude of 34 species have the capacity to provide strong inference for a mean altitudinal range shift as small as 40 m across the species assemblage. We also show that range shifts measured at range boundaries can be potentially misleading when differences in sampling effort between contemporary and historical data sets are not taken into account.     

Overyielding and species diversity: what should we expect?

Recent empirical studies have found evidence of increased biomass production ('overyielding') in species mixtures relative to monoculture, but the interpretation of these results remains controversial, in part, because of the lack of a theoretical expectation. Here, we examined the expected frequency and stability of overyielding species mixtures using Lotka-Volterra models of species dynamics in two- and four-species systems in conjunction with community, population, and specific rate of biomass production (SRP) definitions of overyielding. Overyielding plant mixtures represented > 55% of potential species assemblages under community definitions and approximately 100% of species were either overyielding or underyielding under the population definition. Our species simulations approached their equilibria in 1-2 yr, supporting the relevancy of an equilibrial analysis. The range of parameter space that we explored produced realistic values of plot biomass, supporting their biological relevance. We show that overyielding is expected to be common under community definitions and population definitions. Overyielding, under community or population definitions, does not imply an actual increase in the specific rate of biomass production. In addition, assemblages of overyielding and underyielding species under all three definitions can be stable over time with underyielding species persisting in the presence of overyielding species.     

Aposematism: what should our starting point be?

The evolution of aposematism is considered to be a major evolutionary problem because if new aposematic forms emerged in defended cryptic populations, they would face the dual problems of rarity and conspicuousness. We argue that this commonly assumed starting point might not have wide validity. We describe a novel evolutionary computer model in which prey evolve secondary defences and become conspicuous by moving widely over a visually heterogeneous habitat. Unless crypsis imposes high opportunity costs (for instance, preventing prey from efficient foraging, thermoregulation and communication), costly secondary defences are not predicted to evolve at all. However, when crypsis imposes opportunity costs, prey evolve secondary defences that facilitate raised behavioural conspicuousness as prey exploit opportunities within their environment. Optimal levels of secondary defence and of behavioural conspicuousness increase with population sizes and the costs imposed by crypsis. When prey are already conspicuous by virtue of their behaviours, the evolution of aposematic appearances (bright coloration, etc.) is much easier to explain because aposematic traits add little further costs of conspicuousness, but can bring large benefits.     

Community genetics: what have we accomplished and where should we be going?

Research in community genetics seeks to understand how the dynamic interplay between ecology and evolution shapes simple and complex communities and ecosystems. A community genetics perspective, however, may not be necessary or informative for all studies and systems. To better understand when and how intraspecific genetic variation and microevolution are important in community and ecosystem ecology, we suggest future research should focus on three areas: (i) determining the relative importance of intraspecific genetic variation compared with other ecological factors in mediating community and ecosystem properties; (ii) understanding the importance of microevolution in shaping ecological dynamics in multi-trophic communities; and (iii) deciphering the phenotypic and associated genetic mechanisms that drive community and ecosystem processes. Here, we identify key areas of research that will increase our understanding of the ecology and evolution of complex communities but that are currently missing in community genetics. We then suggest experiments designed to meet these current gaps.     

Genetic information and the family: are we our brother's keeper?

Nowhere are the principles of autonomy and privacy more frequently underscored than in the context of modern human genetics. Fear of untoward socioeconomic and psychosocial consequences of genetic knowledge has reinforced the need for medical confidentiality. However, genetic information is necessarily familial and the needs and interests of other family members cannot be ignored. The past decade has witnessed a gradual move away from the status quo position of absolute confidentiality, to an intermediary position of it being the duty of the patient, to a position making it ethically permissible for the physician to warn in certain limited circumstances. Founded on the principle of mutuality, this last position will revolutionize not only the physician-patient relationship but also the modern, nuclear family.     

Arctic parasitology: why should we care?

The significant impact on human and animal health from parasitic infections in tropical regions is well known, but parasites of medical and veterinary importance are also found in the Arctic. Subsistence hunting and inadequate food inspection can expose people of the Arctic to foodborne parasites. Parasitic infections can influence the health of wildlife populations and thereby food security. The low ecological diversity that characterizes the Arctic imparts vulnerability. In addition, parasitic invasions and altered transmission of endemic parasites are evident and anticipated to continue under current climate changes, manifesting as pathogen range expansion, host switching, and/or disease emergence or reduction. However, Arctic ecosystems can provide useful models for understanding climate-induced shifts in host-parasite ecology in other regions.     

Pertussis: should we immunise neurologically disabled and developmentally delayed children?

A total of 400 children with neurological disorders were studied to ascertain whether they had been immunised against pertussis, the reasons for non-immunisation, and the "validity" of these reasons, as judged by interpretation of the recommendations of the Department of Health and Social Security. The results for this group were compared with those for a group of 400 aged matched controls. The study group had a significantly lower rate of immunisation than controls (p less than 0.01); rates for both groups fell sharply after 1975. A total of 192 study patients and 186 controls were not immunised. Those children with cerebral palsy had the lowest rate of immunisation (19%) and the highest number of valid reasons for non-immunisation (63%). Paediatricians apparently advised against immunisation in 61 (32%) of the index group but in only four (2%) of the controls. The risk of serious neurological handicap after pertussis immunisation is small and there is little evidence to support the view that underlying neurological disease predisposes a child to increased risk. The advice currently given by paediatricians may need to be reconsidered.     

Open questions: why should we care about ER-phagy and ER remodelling?

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is one of the most complex organelles in the eukaryotic cell. Recent findings suggest that a process called ER-phagy plays a major role in maintaining the ER’s shape and function.     

Population ageing: what should we worry about?

Approximately half the world''s population now has replacement-level fertility or below. The UK experience in accommodating to a changing dependency ratio provides some generalizable insights. A mechanistic approach assuming a fixed retirement age and a need to raise fertility or increase immigration in order to maintain pensions at a fixed proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP) is overstated and wrong. It needs to be replaced by a welfare optimizing model, which takes into account the increasing years of healthy life, a slow rise in the pensionable age, capital inheritance and wider welfare considerations of population density that are not reflected in GDP measures. A combined replacement ratio (CRR) is suggested for developed countries combining the impact of the fertility rate and immigration rate. A CRR above 2 implies continued population growth. The current UK CRR of 2.48 is higher than needed for pension reasons, and it is suggested that it exceeds the welfare maximizing level.