Population dynamics of three Neotropical small mammals: Time series models and the role of delayed density-dependence in population irruptions

It is widely believed that only precipitation levels (through increased primary production) determine irruptions of small mammals in semi-arid areas of western South America. Nevertheless, density-dependent factors may also drive population fluctuations. To test statistically these putative effects we analysed 11 years of population records on three sympatric species of small mammals at two different habitat types in north central Chile. We applied the classical diagnostic tools of time series analysis (the autocorrelation function: ACF) to the observed time series of three neotropical small mammals. We also used simple linear autoregressive time series models to reconstruct the endogenous dynamics of these populations. The analysis strongly suggests that population fluctuations of the three species have an important density-dependent component, with the most irruptive species (Phyllotis darwini, Waterhouse 1837) displaying stronger second order population feedbacks than the other two (Akodon olivaceus, Waterhouse 1837 and Thylamys elegans, Waterhouse 1839). The latter two species showed direct density-dependent feedbacks. We hypothesize that the frequent population outbreaks of P. darwini (and perhaps of other species) in semi-arid regions of western South America, may be the result of population-level (direct density- dependence) and community-level processes (delayed density-dependence), interacting with exogenous perturbations (rainfall and associated primary production).     

Diversification of ectoparasite assemblages and climate: an example with fleas parasitic on small mammals

Aim We studied the relationships between the numbers of species and numbers of higher taxa (genera, tribes, subfamilies and families) in flea assemblages of small mammalian hosts with the aims of: (a) comparing these relationships across different regions, and (b) testing the hypothesis that flea assemblages in warmer regions diversify mainly via intrahost speciation, whereas those in colder regions diversify mainly via host switching. Location The study used previously published data on flea assemblages on small mammalian hosts from 25 different regions of the Holarctic. Methods The number of flea genera, tribes, subfamilies or families in an assemblage (host species) was plotted against the number of flea species in this assemblage for each region separately, and a power function was fitted to the resulting relationships. Then, the values of the exponent of the power function for a region were regressed against the mean annual temperature in this region, across all regions. Results The relationships between the number of flea species and the numbers of flea genera, tribes, subfamilies or families on a host species in each region were found to be well described by simple power functions. The exponent of the power function of the relationship between the number of flea species and the number of flea genera per host tended to decrease with increasing local mean annual temperature. When two apparent outliers from the trend (corresponding to regions where sampling was not performed as in other regions) were omitted from the analysis, the negative relationship between temperature and the exponent of the power function between the number of flea species and number of flea genera per host became highly significant. No relationship was found between the values of the exponents of the power functions between the number of flea species and the number of flea tribes, subfamilies or families per host, and the mean local annual temperature. Main conclusions The results suggest that the diversification of flea assemblages is associated with climatic variables. In warm regions, the greater number of congeneric species per flea assemblage, reflected by the lower exponent of the power function, may well be the outcome of intrahost speciation. This indicates that, as regional temperature increases, intrahost speciation becomes a relatively more important mode of diversification than acquisition of fleas via host switching.     

小型哺乳动物种群周期性波动的外因调节假说

对小型哺乳动物种群数量周期性波动的外因调节假说进行介绍 ,概述了食物假说、捕食假说和复合因子假说的主要内容和研究进展。在少数生存环境严酷的小型哺乳动物种群中 ,食物假说能解释它们的周期性数量波动现象 ,可能作为调节因子起作用 ,但难以说明低数量期的确切机制 ,对于大多数小型哺乳动物而言 ,它更可能作为限制因子。捕食假说解释了北欧芬诺斯坎底亚地区某些种群的周期性波动 ,尤其是捕食的间接效应已引起许多学者的关注 ,但也有不支持该假说的证据。对于复合因子假说 ,近年颇受学者重视 ,其中验证食物和捕食交互及累加作用的实验证据较多 ,有的研究还包括气候、种间竞争、空间或社会行为等因素。有关复合因子的实验研究 ,尽管工作是困难和艰巨的 ,花费也是巨大的 ,但所得结果却极有价值 ,为深入理解种群动态调节理论提供了一个合理而有效的手段     

Crop production structure and stability under climate change in South America

Southern South America is expected to play an increasingly important role in global food production, but climate change could seriously threaten it. Here we have analysed long‐term historical data for major crops (rice, oats, barley, sunflower, soybean, sorghum, wheat, maize) at subnational scale to (a) look for common features among crop yield dynamics, evaluating their structure and implications for the persistence of that crop; (b) address complex crop responses to changes in environmental growing conditions; and (c) identify climate impact hotspots that are crucial for adaptation and mitigation. We have proposed a novel methodological approach based on dynamics systems in order to understand the processes behind annual crop yield fluctuations. We report the results of general patterns in the internal process (biophysical adjustments by rapid negative feedbacks) regulating crop production and analyse how it influences crop persistence and yield ceilings. The structure of a crop yield dynamic system defines its behaviour, but climate variations could displace it from yield equilibrium and affect its stability. Our findings suggest that weather conditions have a stronger impact on yield growth at high rather than at low yield levels (non‐additive impacts). This allows agriculture management to be refined and applied more efficiently, weakening the relationship between crop productivity and climate change and predicting the response of crop production to yield‐improvement strategies. We have identified those crops and regions which are most vulnerable to the current climate change trends in southern South American agroecosystems. Our results allow us to point to new ways to enhance self‐regulatory success, maximising the efficiency of crop production and reducing climate impacts. We have discussed important implications for crop management and climate change mitigation in an area where agriculture plays a key role in its socioeconomic and ecologic dimensions.     

Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO₂ levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial non-volant European mammals under two of IPCC’s future climatic scenarios. Assuming unlimited and no migration, respectively, our model predicts that 1% or 5–9% of European mammals risk extinction, while 32–46% or 70–78% may be severely threatened (lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally, potential mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but increase towards the northeast and for higher elevations. Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land-use, biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal or history, and our results should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes.     

Community assembly, stability and signatures of dynamical constraints on food web structure

To understand the dynamics of natural species communities, a major challenge is to quantify the relationship between their assembly, stability, and underlying food web structure. To this end, two complementary aspects of food web structure can be related to community stability: sign structure, which refers to the distributions of trophic links irrespective of interaction strengths, and interaction strength structure, which refers to the distributions of interaction strengths with or without consideration of sign structure. In this paper, using data from a set of relatively well documented community food webs, I show that natural communities generally exhibit a sign structure that renders their stability sensitive to interaction strengths. Using a Lotka-Volterra type population dynamical model, I then show that in such communities, individual consumer species with high values of a measure of their total biomass acquisition rate, which I term “weighted generality”, tend to undermine community stability. Thus consumer species’ trophic modules (a species and all its resource links) should be “selected” through repeated immigrations and extinctions during assembly into configurations that increase the probability of stable coexistence within the constraints of the community's trophic sign structure. The presence of such constraints can be detected by the incidence and strength of certain non-random structural characteristics. These structural signatures of dynamical constraints are readily measurable, and can be used to gauge the importance of interaction-driven dynamical constraints on communities during and after assembly in natural communities.     

中国云南小兽寄生革螨的群落结构和空间分布

寄生在小兽体表的革螨可能是传播肾综合征出血热和立克次体痘等人兽共患病的媒介。本文报道了云南省28个县(市)小兽体表革螨的野外调查结果, 运用物种数、平均丰富度和Shannon多样性指数对小兽寄生革螨的群落特征和沿环境梯度的空间分布进行了研究, 并用系统聚类分析法 (SPSS 16.0软件)对18种主要小兽的革螨群落相似性进行了比较。在云南省28个县(市)共捕获到小兽14 544头, 隶属于5目（啮齿目、食虫目、攀鼩目、兔形目、食肉目）10科35属67种, 在捕获的小兽体表采集到革螨80 791头, 经鉴定属于10科33属112种。结果分析表明: 主要的宿主动物为黄胸鼠 Rattus tanezumi、齐氏姬鼠Apodemus chevrieri和大绒鼠Eothenomys miletus;纳氏厉螨Laelaps nuttalli、毒厉螨L. echidninus和贵州厉螨L. guizhouensis为革螨的优势种。齐氏姬鼠A. chevrieri、社鼠N. confucianus和黄胸鼠R. tanezumi体表寄生的革螨种类最多;臭鼩鼱Suncus murinus、齐氏姬鼠A. chevrieri和灰麝鼩Crocidura attenuata的革螨群落多样性最高。聚类分析结果表明, 大部分革螨群落的相似程度与相应小兽的亲缘关系及所处生态环境的相似性是基本一致的, 分类地位和生境选择相似的小兽, 它们的革螨群落也被聚为一类。革螨物种数沿纬度梯度的水平分布呈现两个峰值, 最大峰值出现在25°~26°N之间;沿海拔梯度的垂直分布呈单峰分布格局, 峰值在海拔2 000~2 500 m之间。革螨和小兽的多样性沿纬度梯度和海拔梯度的空间分布趋势也均表现出随着纬度和海拔的升高而先升高后降低的单峰型分布格局, 峰值分别出现在北纬25°~27°N和海拔2 000~2 500 m之间。结果提示云南革螨群落种类丰富, 多样性高。云南革螨物种数和多样性的分布格局可能直接受到古北和东洋两区系边缘效应的影响。     

基于稳定同位素技术的海州湾海洋牧场食物网基础及营养结构的季节性变化

基于稳定同位素技术对2015年春季海州湾海洋牧场海域采集的中小型生物消费者,包括鱼类、虾类、蟹类、头足类、螺类和双壳类等与其潜在碳源样品进行分析,利用IsoSource模型计算该海域消费者碳源贡献率,并对2014年夏季生物学样品与2015年春季样品比较,分析食物网营养结构的季节性变化,根据稳定同位素测定结果绘制二维双标图,计算出6种营养结构的量化指标.结果表明: 2015年春季海州湾海洋牧场海域消费者的δ¹³C值范围为-18.9‰～-17.1‰,3种潜在碳源[浮游植物、悬浮颗粒有机物(POM)、沉积物(SOM)]的δ¹³C值范围为-18.1‰～-23.4‰,根据模型计算得出浮游植物对消费者的平均碳源贡献最大,为80.8%,其余依次为SOM和POM,分别为10.8%和8.4%.2014年夏季生物样品与2015年春季样品的δ¹³C值存在显著差异,而δ¹⁵N值无显著性差异;6种量化指标表明群落营养结构存在季节性差异, 2014年夏季的δ¹³C比值范围(CR)、总面积(TA)、平均最邻近距离(NND)和平均最邻近距离标准差(SDNND)均大于2015年春季,δ¹⁵N比值范围(NR)和平均离心距离(CD)无明显变化,夏季群落营养结构冗余度小于春季,且食源多样性水平高于春季,存在季节差异.     

Towards a mechanistic understanding of temperature and enrichment effects on species interaction strength,omnivory and food‐web structure

Revealing the links between species functional traits, interaction strength and food‐web structure is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the relationships between food‐web diversity and stability in a rapidly changing world. However, little is known about the interactive effects of environmental perturbations on individual species, trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning. Here, we combined modelling and laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of warming and enrichment on a terrestrial tritrophic system. We found that the food‐web structure is highly variable and switches between exploitative competition and omnivory depending on the effects of temperature and enrichment on foraging behaviour and species interaction strength. Our model contributes to identifying the mechanisms that explain how environmental effects cascade through the food web and influence its topology. We conclude that considering environmental factors and flexible food‐web structure is crucial to improve our ability to predict the impacts of global changes on ecosystem diversity and stability.     

Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series

Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.     

Effects of rain forest logging on species richness and assemblage composition of small mammals in Southeast Asia

Aim The effects of logging and habitat degradation on the richness and abundance of small mammals in Asian rain forests are largely unknown. This work compares the species richness, dominance and evenness of small non‐volant mammals between logged and unlogged forests, and assesses whether assemblage variability (β‐diversity) is similar between forest types. Location Southeast Asia, northern Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia), Sunda‐shelf. Methods We surveyed species‐rich assemblages of small non‐volant mammals in three unlogged and three logged forests for 2 years. At each forest site, we sampled a permanently marked transect and two additional sites in three trapping sessions. All analyses were performed at both levels to include the effects of local abundances and point estimates, separately from the relative abundances of species on a more regional scale. Results We trapped a total of 1218 individuals of 28 species. Eleven common species accounted for 95% of all captures. Species richness and diversity were significantly higher in unlogged forest (27 species) than in logged forest (17 species). This was mainly attributable to the smaller number of rarely recorded species in logged forest (five compared with 16 in unlogged forest, with a total of fewer than 10 captures). However, all common species were present in both logged and unlogged forests, and our analyses revealed similar patterns of dominance, evenness and fluctuations in abundance. Hence overall assemblage composition in multivariate space did not differ greatly between forest types. Assemblages of Muridae and Tupaiidae showed similar population fluctuations in space and time, indicating that the ecology of these taxa may be partially driven by the same environmental factors. Main conclusions Although species were distributed patchily within sites, analyses at local and regional scales revealed similar patterns in diversity and assemblage variability, suggesting that effects of forest modification did not differ extensively locally and regionally, but had a profound effect on rare species. Our results emphasize the importance and conservation value of logged forest stands that are able to hold a large proportion of the small mammals also found in unlogged forests. Rare and more specialized species are more vulnerable to forest degradation than commonly caught species, resulting in the complete loss, or a decrease in numbers, of certain groups, such as arboreal small mammals and Viverridae.     

Population dynamics of two rodent species in agro-ecosystems of central Argentina: intra-specific competition,land-use,and climate effects

Understanding the role of feedback structure (endogenous processes) and exogenous (climatic and environmental) factors in shaping the dynamics of natural populations is a central challenge within the field of population ecology. We attempted to explain the numerical fluctuations of two sympatric rodent species in agro-ecosystems of central Argentina using Royama’s theoretical framework for analyzing the dynamics of populations influenced by exogenous climatic forces. We found that both rodent species show a first-order negative feedback structure, suggesting that these populations are regulated by intra-specific competition (limited by food, space, or enemy-free space). In Akodon azarae endogenous structure seems to be very strongly influenced by human land-use represented by annual minimum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), with spring and summer rainfall having little influence upon carrying capacity. Calomys venustus’ population dynamics, on the other hand, seem to be more affected by local climate, also with spring and summer rainfall influencing the carrying capacity of the environment, but combined with spring mean temperature. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species

Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species is complicated by the fact that the effects of climate variation may manifest at several points in the biological process. To this end, we extend a dynamic mechanistic model that combines population dynamics, such as species interactions, with species redistribution by allowing climate to affect both processes. We examine their relative contributions in an application to the changing biomass of a community of eight species in the Gulf of Maine using over 30 years of fisheries data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center. Our model suggests that the mechanisms driving biomass trends vary across space, time, and species. Phase space plots demonstrate that failing to account for the dynamic nature of the environmental and biologic system can yield theoretical estimates of population abundances that are not observed in empirical data. The stock assessments used by fisheries managers to set fishing targets and allocate quotas often ignore environmental effects. At the same time, research examining the effects of climate change on fish has largely focused on redistribution. Frameworks that combine multiple biological reactions to climate change are particularly necessary for marine researchers. This work is just one approach to modeling the complexity of natural systems and highlights the need to incorporate multiple and possibly interacting biological processes in future models.     

Seasonal dynamics in the community structure and trophic structure of testate amoebae inhabiting the Sanjiang peatlands,Northeast China

Peatlands cover 3% of the earth’s land surface but contain 30% of the world’s soil carbon pool. Microbial communities constitute a crucial detrital food web for nutrient and carbon cycling in peatlands. Heterotrophic protozoans are considered top predators in the microbial food web; however, they are not yet well understood. In this study, we investigated seasonal dynamics in the community and the trophic structure of testate amoebae in four peatlands. Testate amoebae density and biomass in August were significantly higher than those in May and October. The highest density, 6.7 × 10⁴ individual g⁻¹ dry moss, was recorded in August 2014. The highest biomass, 7.7 × 10² μg C g⁻¹ dry moss, was recorded in August 2013. Redundancy analyses showed that water-table depth was the most important factor, explaining over one third of the variance in fauna communities in all sampled seasons. High trophic position taxa dominated testate amoebae communities. The Shannon diversity index and community size structure index declined from August to October in 2013 and from May to October in 2014. These seasonal patterns of testate amoebae indicated the seasonal variations of the peatlands’ microbial food web and are possibly related to the seasonal carbon dynamics in Northeast Chinese peatlands.     

保水渔业对千岛湖食物网结构及其相互作用的影响

为预防千岛湖连续暴发了2a(1998—1999)的蓝藻水华和改善千岛湖水质,于2000年起在千岛湖开展了以人工放养鲢鳙和控制凶猛鱼类为主要措施的保水渔业试验。作为试验的主要研究内容之一,通过构建1999和2000年千岛湖生态系统的Ecopath模型,比较分析了实施保水渔业对千岛湖生态系统食物网结构及其相互作用的影响。结果表明:实施保水渔业,使千岛湖中的银鱼和鲤生物量减少,而鲌类(主要是蒙古鲌)、鲴类和大眼华鳊等增加;使各种鱼类的捕食者和食饵生态位重叠指数下降;各主要鱼类的相互作用中,鲢、鳙对鳡、鲌的促进作用增强,鳡对鲌的抑制作用及鲌对虾类、银鱼和鲤等以及银鱼对浮游动物的抑制作用减弱,鳙对银鱼、大眼华鳊对鲤的抑制作用增强。这些影响,使千岛湖食物网结构更趋合理,如底层碎屑食性鱼类如鲴类等的增加,有利于营养物的再循环和再利用,从而增强了水体对营养物的净化作用。     

施肥方式对干旱半干旱地区土壤氨氧化微生物数量和群落的影响

氨氧化是硝化作用的限速步骤,也是评估土壤氮循环和提高氮肥利用效率的重要指标。以内蒙古农牧业科学院旱作实验站长期定位实验为基础,通过实时荧光定量PCR和末端限制性片段长度多态性分析,研究了5种施肥方式（单施氮肥、单施有机肥、氮磷钾配施、有机无机配施和不施肥）对土壤氨氧化古菌（AOA）和氨氧化细菌（AOB）群落丰度、结构和活性的影响。结果表明：单施氮肥、氮磷钾肥配施以及有机无机肥配施均能显著提高AOB的丰度以及土壤硝化潜势。Nitrosospiria cluster 3a.1是不施肥土壤中主要的AOB种群,而施用氮肥后优势种群转变为Nitrosospiria cluster 3a.2。Nitrosospiria cluster 3b的比例在施用有机肥处理土壤中显著升高。在干旱半干旱地区,土壤pH和含水量是解释AOB群落结构变化的关键环境因子。AOA的丰度在单独施用氮肥处理中显著升高,但不同施肥方式对AOA的群落结构没有显著影响。     

甘肃河西小型哺乳动物物种多样性与水热分布的关系

野外调查、文献和标本资料收集相结合,采用因子分析法,分析了甘肃河西地区小型哺乳动物物种多样性分布格局与水热条件空间分布的关系.结果表明:物种丰富度与年降水量呈正相关关系,而与最热月(7月)平均温度、年平均温度、年蒸发量呈负相关关系,与最冷月(1月)平均温度相关性不明显;影响小型哺乳动物物种丰富度空间分布的决定因素以年降水量、最热月(7月)平均温度、年平均温度、年蒸发量为主的要素所构成的基本景观因子,其次是最冷月(1月)平均温度.