Genetic structure of the white‐footed mouse in the context of the emergence of Lyme disease in southern Québec

The white‐footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) has expanded its northern limit into southern Québec over the last few decades. P. leucopus is a great disperser and colonizer and is of particular interest because it is considered a primary reservoir for the spirochete bacterium that causes Lyme disease. There is no current information on the gene flow between mouse populations on the mountains and forest fragments found scattered throughout the Montérégie region in southern Québec, and whether various landscape barriers have an effect on their dispersal. We conducted a population genetics analysis on eleven P. leucopus populations using eleven microsatellite markers and showed that isolation by distance was weak, yet barriers were effective. The agricultural matrix had the least effect on gene flow, whereas highways and main rivers were effective barriers. The abundance of ticks collected from mice varied within the study area. Both ticks and mice were screened for the presence of the spirochete bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, and we predicted areas of greater risk for Lyme disease. Merging our results with ongoing Lyme disease surveillance programs will help determine the future threat of this disease in Québec, and will contribute toward disease prevention and management strategies throughout fragmented landscapes in southern Canada.     

Distribution, abundance, and seasonal ecology of Listronotus maculicollis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on golf courses in Québec, Canada

The weevil Listronotus maculicollis Dietz (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is a major pest of annual bluegrass, Poa annua L., on golf courses in northeastern North America. To determine the distribution, abundance, and seasonal ecology of L. maculicollis on golf courses in Québec, Canada, we sampled 19 golf courses (GC1-GC19) from different geographic and climatic conditions during 2001, 2002, and 2003. L. maculicollis was found on all golf courses except GC19, which was located in northeastern Québec. In most sites, L. maculicollis completed two generations per year. A linear regression model comparing L. maculicollis larval densities as a function of spatial coordinates revealed that L. maculicollis were more abundant in western Québec than in eastern Québec. Pearson correlations on the probability of both L. maculicollis larval and pupal presence with soil parameters indicated significant positive correlations for fine sand (larvae) and soil pH (pupae) and negative correlations for gravel.     

Evolution of inbreeding coefficients and effective size in the population of Saguenay Lac-St.-Jean (Quebec)

We computed mean inbreeding coefficients (FIT, FIS, and FST) based on approximately 2,700 ascending pedigrees of contemporary people from Saguenay Lac-St-Jean (Québec, Canada). This allowed us to appreciate the accumulated inbreeding and to follow the evolution of these coefficients since the founding of Québec. One of the results was the expected increase in FST. Relying on this parameter, we computed the effective size (Ne) of the contemporary population, obtaining a value around 1,000, in agreement with previous estimations. We noticed a decrease of Ne through history despite the population's growing size.     

Conservation genetics of the threatened horned grebe (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Podiceps auritus</Emphasis> L.) population of the Magdalen Islands,Québec

The horned grebe (Podiceps auritus) population of the Magdalen Islands in the St. Lawrence Gulf (Québec, Canada) has declined sharply over the last decades. It is the only breeding population of this species in eastern North America with nearest breeding populations being >2500 km apart in western North America and Europe, We used three types of genetic markers: mitochondrial (mt) DNA ND2 sequence, α-enolase intron sequence, and 25 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci (AFLPs) to quantify the genetic diversity within the Magdalen Island population and to assess its genetic distinctiveness relative to populations from western Canada (five sites) and Iceland (one site). The Magdalen Island population retained a comparable amount of genetic diversity to the average diversity observed across all populations in all three markers. Horned grebe mtDNA sequences formed a monophyletic group and nearly all haplotypes present in Québec were found elsewhere. In the ND2 fragment, populations partitioned into two groups corresponding to subspecies (Iceland versus North American sites) and more strongly in three groups according to geographic disjunctions (Iceland versus Québec versus western Canada). In contrast, there was no evidence of structure between sites in the α-enolase intron. In the AFLPs, Iceland showed the greatest level of differentiation, followed by the Québec and British Columbia populations. For conservation purposes, we suggest that the Magdalen Islands population should be recognized as a separate unit.     

Tree-ring analysis of white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) archaeological and historical wood in Québec City (Québec,Canada)

In Québec City, a segment of an old wooden palisade built for protection was found buried in situ. The palisade was excavated by the Laval University archaeology field school in 2004–2005, and 29 posts were recovered and sampled. The palisade enclosed the Intendant's Palace compound, which was the residence of the governor of New France at the end of the 17th century. Tree-ring analysis was performed on wood excavated from the Intendant's Palace archaeological site (PDI) and additional wood from two historical military buildings, the Artillery Park (ART) (early 18th century) and the Québec Citadel (CIT) (17th–19th centuries). Wood identification revealed that white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) was used for wood construction at the three sites. Many trees used for the construction of the PDI palisade were felled after the 1690 growing season, likely in September/October 1690. Posts probably came from trees growing close to the site on the banks of the Saint-Charles River. A white cedar ring-width chronology from the Rimouski area, approximately 300 km northeast of Québec City, along the St. Lawrence River, was used for cross-dating. Archaeological and historical wood samples from two of the three sites (PDI and ART) were first assembled in a 235-year tree-ring chronology, called the Québec chronology, extending from 1489 to 1723. The two master chronologies (Québec and Rimouski) were merged into a single 513-year tree-ring chronology (1489–2001), called the Saint-Laurent chronology.     

How did common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) spread in Québec? A historical analysis using herbarium records

Aim To reconstruct the spread of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.; Asteraceae) using herbarium specimens to document whether the habitat preferences of this plant have shifted through time. Location Southern Québec. Methods Herbarium specimens stored in the main herbaria of southern Québec were used to reconstruct the spread of common ragweed. All data (sampling location, year of sampling, habitat characteristics, etc.) were incorporated into a geographical information system. Maps indicating the spatial distribution of common ragweed were produced for four time periods. The cumulative number of locations was plotted against time to construct invasion curves. The sequence of habitats where herbarium specimens were collected was also reconstructed. Results A data base incorporating 707 common ragweed herbarium specimens was constructed for this study. The spread of common ragweed in most regions of southern Québec was initiated at the beginning of the 20th century. Herbarium specimens suggest that common ragweed first spread along river corridors. Specimens of common ragweed were not collected in agricultural fields before the mid‐1920s, nor along roads and railways before the mid‐1930s. The colonization of a large number of agricultural fields by common ragweed probably began with seed‐contaminated crops, but was certainly accelerated by the dispersal of seeds from populations growing along nearby roads. Main conclusions Herbarium specimens suggest that common ragweed has been present in southern Québec for at least 200 years, but the species was probably restricted to the Montréal area during the 19th century. It is likely that the development of the road network in Québec since the mid‐1930s significantly contributed to the spread of common ragweed. Controlling common ragweed solely in agricultural fields would not prevent the re‐infestation of crops, because roadsides would act as refuges for the weed.     

Targeted surveillance of raccoon rabies in Québec,Canada

Data from wildlife disease surveillance programs are used to inform implementation of disease control (e.g., vaccination, population reduction) in space and time. We developed an approach to increase detection of raccoon rabies in raccoons (Procyon lotor) and skunks (Mephitis mephitis) of Québec, Canada, and we examined the implications of using this approach for targeted surveillance. First we modeled the probability of a rabid animal relative to environmental characteristics of sampling locations. Rabid animals were more likely to be found in low-lying flat landscapes that had higher proportions of corn-forest edge habitat and hay agriculture, and that were within 20 km of one or more known rabies cases. From the model, we created 2 complementary risk maps to identify areas where rabid animals were most likely to be sampled. One map accounted for habitat and known rabies case locations, and can be used to define an infection zone from which surveillance can be targeted along the periphery to determine if disease is continuing to spread. The other map only accounted for habitat and can be used to locate areas most likely to contain rabid animals when the disease is present. In a further analysis we compared the 2 most successful methods for detecting raccoon rabies in Québec, given the disease was present. Government trapping operations (active surveillance) detected more cases in the short-term, but citizen notification (passive and enhanced) was more effective after 12 trapping days from which the initial rabies case was found. Our approach can benefit wildlife and public health agencies wanting to assess the disease status of regions by targeting surveillance to habitats most likely to contain infected animals and by defining the duration over which sampling methods are effective. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Gene polymorphisms in the Quebec population: a risk to develop hypertriglyceridemia

In Eastern Québec, two major lipoprotein lipase (LPL) gene mutations, P207L and G188E, lead to complete LPL deficiency in homozygote subjects and contribute to elevated predisposition to hypertriglyceridemia in heterozygotes. First, we determined the allele frequencies of LPL (D9N, G188E, P207L, D250N, N291S, and S447X), APOE (C112R and C158R), PPARalpha (L162V), and PPARgamma2 (P12A) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a random-based cohort of the metropolitan Québec city area. Second, we compared the LPL X447 allele frequencies observed in the random cohort and in a cohort of LPL P207L deficient patients. In the random cohort, the LPL N9 rare allele exhibited a higher prevalence than previously expected (p=0.0001). The LPL X447 allele frequency was lower in the patient cohort (Freq: 4.4%) than in the random cohort (Freq: 11.2%) (p=0.0001). These results reveal the importance of genetic screening for LPL gene mutations D9N and S447X in a population at risk to develop hypertriglyceridemia.     

Testing isonymy with paternal and maternal lineages in the early Québec population: the impact of polyphyletism and demographic differentials

Isonymy is an ingenious and useful approach to studying kinship in human populations. However, it relies on assumptions that are difficult to verify. In this study, we provided a way to assess, in the early Québec population, the impact of factors such as polyphyletism, unbalanced sex-ratio among founders, and age differentials between spouses. All data were taken from the Population Register of Early Québec, which contains births, marriages, and deaths (>712,000) recorded in parish registers from the beginning of colonization (in 1608) to 1800. More specifically, using the 70,869 marriages recorded during that period, we compared kinship estimates given by genealogies, surnames, and paternal and maternal lineages. We also calculated a fifth coefficient of kinship by combining paternal and maternal lineage, thus providing a new way to test the isonymy method. The results show a good agreement between genealogical and isonymous estimates. However, this good correspondence is due to counterbalancing biases. Some of the implications of our results are discussed in the context of colonial America.     

Seroprevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in lynx (Lynx canadensis) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) from Québec, Canada.

The seroprevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii was investigated in trapped lynx (Lynx canadensis) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) from Québec, Canada. Forty-seven of 106 (44%) lynx and 4 of 10 (40%) bobcats had positive titers for T. gondii (> or = 25) by means of the modified agglutination test incorporating mercaptoethanol and formalin-fixed tachyzoites. Seroprevalence was significantly higher (P < 0.0001) in adult lynx than in juvenile lynx. The presence of antibodies to T. gondii in lynx and bobcats suggests that this organism is widespread in the wild and that exposure to wild felids and game animals from Québec may represent a potential source of infection for humans.     

Landscape resistance and habitat combine to provide an optimal model of genetic structure and connectivity at the range margin of a small mammal

We evaluated the effect of habitat and landscape characteristics on the population genetic structure of the white‐footed mouse. We develop a new approach that uses numerical optimization to define a model that combines site differences and landscape resistance to explain the genetic differentiation between mouse populations inhabiting forest patches in southern Québec. We used ecological distance computed from resistance surfaces with Circuitscape to infer the effect of the landscape matrix on gene flow. We calculated site differences using a site index of habitat characteristics. A model that combined site differences and resistance distances explained a high proportion of the variance in genetic differentiation and outperformed models that used geographical distance alone. Urban and agriculture‐related land uses were, respectively, the most and the least resistant landscape features influencing gene flow. Our method detected the effect of rivers and highways as highly resistant linear barriers. The density of grass and shrubs on the ground best explained the variation in the site index of habitat characteristics. Our model indicates that movement of white‐footed mouse in this region is constrained along routes of low resistance. Our approach can generate models that may improve predictions of future northward range expansion of this small mammal.     

Are Stepparents Always Evil? Parental Death,Remarriage, and Child Survival in Demographically Saturated Krummhörn (1720–1859) and Expanding Québec (1670–1750)

Parental death precipitates a cascade of events leading to more or less detrimental exposures, from the sudden and dramatic interruption of parental care to cohabitation with stepparents and siblings in a recomposed family. This article compares the effect of early parental loss on child survival in the past in the Krummhörn region of East Frisia (Germany) and among the French Canadian settlers of the Saint Lawrence Valley (Québec, Canada). The Krummhörn region was characterized by a saturated habitat, while the opportunities for establishing a new family were virtually unlimited for the French Canadian settlers. Early parental loss had quite different consequences in these dissimilar environments. Event history analyses with time-varying specification of family structure are used on a sample of 7,077 boys and 6,906 girls born between 1720 and 1859 in the Krummhörn region and 31,490 boys and 33,109 girls whose parents married between 1670 and 1750 in Québec. Results indicate that in both populations, parental loss is associated with increased infant and child mortality. Maternal loss has a universal and consistent effect for both sexes, while the impact of paternal loss is less easy to establish and interpret. On the other hand, the effect of the remarriage of the surviving spouse is population-specific: the mother's remarriage has no effect in Krummhörn, while it is beneficial in Québec. In contrast, the father's remarriage in Krummhörn dramatically reduces the survival chances of the children born from his former marriage, while such an effect is not seen for Québec. These population-specific effects appear to be driven by the availability of resources and call into question the universality of the “Cinderella” effect.     

Impact of urban fragmentation on the genetic structure of the eastern red-backed salamander

Urban development is a major cause of habitat loss and fragmentation. Few studies, however, have dealt with fragmentation in an urban landscape. In this paper, we examine the genetic structure of isolated populations of the eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) in a metropolitan area. We sampled four populations located on a mountain in the heart of Montréal (Québec, Canada), which presents a mosaic of forested patches isolated by roads, graveyards and buildings. We assessed the genetic structure of these populations using microsatellite loci and compared it to the genetic structure of four populations located in a continuous habitat in southern Québec. Our results indicate that allelic richness and heterozygosity are lower in the urban populations. Exact differentiation tests and pairwise F _ST also show that the populations found in the fragmented habitat are genetically differentiated, whereas populations located in the continuous habitat are genetically homogeneous. These results raise conservation concerns for these populations as well as for rare or threatened species inhabiting urban landscapes.     

Cancer screening barriers and facilitators for under and never screened populations: A mixed methods study

BackgroundCancer screening is below targets in Ontario, Canada. Our objective was to identify and quantify the barriers and facilitators for breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening for under and never screened (UNS) residents living in Ontario between 2011 and 2013.MethodsWe used a multi-phased mixed methods study design. Results from thematic analysis of focus group discussions with health care providers and UNS community members were used to develop an on-line, province-wide, cross-sectional survey to estimate the prevalence of barriers and facilitators for the provincial population. Adjusted prevalence odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for UNS compared to regularly screened participants using logistic regression.ResultsFour focus groups were held with health service providers and sixteen with UNS community members. Top barriers and facilitators themed around provider-patient communication, fear and embarrassment, history of physical or sexual abuse, social determinants of health (including low literacy, lack of awareness, and health insurance), symptoms appearing, and family and friends. 3075 participants completed the online survey. Compared to regularly screened participants, UNS had significantly higher odds of reporting: no regular health care provider; not feeling comfortable talking about screening; or the Doctor or Nurse Practitioner not suggesting screening. UNS also had significantly higher odds of reporting the facilitators: the test being less scary/painful or uncomfortable; friend/family insisting on getting screened; starting to have symptoms; or an easier test that could be done at home.ConclusionsInterventions addressing fear through individual, interpersonal and structural facilitators may increase cancer screening.     

Change from pre‐settlement to present‐day forest composition reconstructed from early land survey records in eastern Québec,Canada

Questions: What was the tree species composition of forests prior to European settlement at the northern hardwood range limit in eastern Québec, Canada? What role did human activities play in the changes in forest composition in this region? Location: Northern range limit of northern hardwoods in the Lower St. Lawrence region of eastern Québec, Canada. Methods: We used early land survey records (1846–1949) of public lands to reconstruct pre‐settlement forest composition. The data consist of ranked tree species enumerations at points or for segments along surveyed lines, with enumerations of forest cover types and notes concerning disturbances. An original procedure was developed to weigh and combine these differing data types (line versus point observations; taxa versus cover enumerations). Change to present‐day forest composition was evaluated by comparing survey records with forest decadal surveys conducted by the government of Québec over the last 30 years (1980–2009). Results: Pre‐settlement dominance of conifers was strong and uniform across the study area, whereas dominance of maple and birches was patchy. Cedar and spruce were less likely to dominate with increasing altitude, whereas maple displayed the reverse trend. Frequency of disturbances, especially logging and fire, increased greatly after 1900. Comparison of survey records and modern plots showed general increases for maple (mentioned frequency increased by 39%), poplar (36%) and paper birch (31%). Considering only taxa ranked first by surveyors, cedar displayed the largest decrease (19%), whereas poplar (15%) and maple (9%) increased significantly. Conclusions: These changes in forest composition can be principally attributed to clear‐cutting and colonization fire disturbances throughout the 20th century, and mostly reflected the propensity of taxa to expand (maples/aspen) or decline (cedar/spruce) with increased disturbance frequency. Québec's land survey archives provide an additional data source to reconstruct and validate our knowledge of North America's pre‐settlement temperate and sub‐boreal forests.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Breast Cancer Control Interventions in Peru

Objectives

In Peru, a country with constrained health resources, breast cancer control is characterized by late stage treatment and poor survival. To support breast cancer control in Peru, this study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of different breast cancer control interventions relevant for the Peruvian context.

Methods

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) according to WHO-CHOICE guidelines, from a healthcare perspective. Different screening, early detection, palliative, and treatment interventions were evaluated using mathematical modeling. Effectiveness estimates were based on observational studies, modeling, and on information from Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplásicas (INEN). Resource utilizations and unit costs were based on estimates from INEN and observational studies. Cost-effectiveness estimates are in 2012 United States dollars (US$) per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted.

Results

The current breast cancer program in Peru ($8,426 per DALY averted) could be improved through implementing triennial or biennial screening strategies. These strategies seem the most cost-effective in Peru, particularly when mobile mammography is applied (from $4,125 per DALY averted), or when both CBE screening and mammography screening are combined (from $4,239 per DALY averted). Triennially, these interventions costs between $63 million and $72 million per year. Late stage treatment, trastuzumab therapy and annual screening strategies are the least cost-effective.

Conclusions

Our analysis suggests that breast cancer control in Peru should be oriented towards early detection through combining fixed and mobile mammography screening (age 45-69) triennially. However, a phased introduction of triennial CBE screening (age 40-69) with upfront FNA in non-urban settings, and both CBE (age 40-49) and fixed mammography screening (age 50-69) in urban settings, seems a more feasible option and is also cost-effective. The implementation of this intervention is only meaningful if awareness raising, diagnostic, referral, treatment and basic palliative services are simultaneously improved, and if financial and organizational barriers to these services are reduced.     

Access and Attitudes to HPV Vaccination amongst Hard-To-Reach Populations in Kenya

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa bears the greatest burden of cervical cancer. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes to prevent the disease will need to reach vulnerable girls who may not be able access health and screening services in the future. We conducted formative research on facilitators and barriers to HPV vaccination and potential acceptability of a future HPV vaccination programme amongst girls living in hard-to-reach populations in Kenya.

Methods

Stakeholder interviews with Ministry of Health staff explored barriers to and support for the uptake of HPV vaccination. A situation assessment was conducted to assess community services in Maasai nomadic pastoralist communities in Kajiado County and in Korogocho informal settlement in Nairobi city, followed by focus group discussions (n=14) and semi-structured interviews (n=28) with health workers, parents, youth, and community and religious leaders. These covered marriage, knowledge of cervical cancer and HPV, factors that might inhibit or support HPV vaccine uptake and intention to accept HPV vaccine if a programme was in place.

Results

Reported challenges to an HPV vaccination programme included school absenteeism and drop-out, early age of sex and marriage, lack of parental support, population mobility and distance from services. Despite little prior knowledge of cervical cancer and HPV, communities were interested in receiving HPV vaccination. Adequate social mobilisation and school-based vaccination, supplemented by out-reach activities, were considered important facilitating factors to achieve high coverage. There was some support for a campaign approach to vaccine delivery.

Conclusions

Given the high level of support for a vaccine against cervical cancer and the experience of reaching pastoralist and slum-dwellers for other immunizations, implementing an HPV vaccine programme should be feasible in such hard-to-reach communities. This may require additional delivery strategies in addition to the standard school-based delivery, with vaccine offered at multiple venues, potentially through a campaign approach.     

Canid hybridization: contemporary evolution in human‐modified landscapes

Contemporary evolution through human‐induced hybridization occurs throughout the taxonomic range. Formerly allopatric species appear especially susceptible to hybridization. Consequently, hybridization is expected to be more common in regions with recent sympatry owing to human activity than in areas of historical range overlap. Coyotes ( Canis latrans) and gray wolves ( C. lupus) are historically sympatric in western North America. Following European settlement gray wolf range contracted, whereas coyote range expanded to include eastern North America. Furthermore, wolves with New World (NW) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes now extend from Manitoba to Québec in Canada and hybridize with gray wolves and coyotes. Using mtDNA and 12 microsatellite markers, we evaluated levels of wolf‐coyote hybridization in regions where coyotes were present (the Canadian Prairies, n = 109 samples) and absent historically (Québec, n = 154). Wolves with NW mtDNA extended from central Saskatchewan (51°N, 69°W) to northeastern Québec (54°N, 108°W). On the Prairies, 6.3% of coyotes and 9.2% of wolves had genetic profiles suggesting wolf‐coyote hybridization. In contrast, 12.6% of coyotes and 37.4% of wolves in Québec had profiles indicating hybrid origin. Wolves with NW and Old World ( C. lupus) mtDNA appear to form integrated populations in both regions. Our results suggest that hybridization is more frequent in historically allopatric populations. Range shifts, now expected across taxa following climate change and other human influence on the environment, might therefore promote contemporary evolution by hybridization.     

Effectiveness of electronic guideline-based implementation systems in ambulatory care settings - a systematic review

Background

The potential barriers and facilitators to change should guide the choice of implementation strategy. Implementation researchers believe that existing methods for the evaluation of potential barriers and facilitators are not satisfactory. Discrete choice experiments (DCE) are relatively new in the health care sector to investigate preferences, and may be of value in the field of implementation research. The objective of our study was to investigate the complementary value of DCE for the evaluation of barriers and facilitators in implementation research.

Methods

Clinical subject was the implementation of the guideline for breast cancer surgery in day care. We identified 17 potential barriers and facilitators to the implementation of this guideline. We used a traditional questionnaire that was made up of statements about the potential barriers and facilitators. Respondents answered 17 statements on a five-point scale ranging from one (fully disagree) to five (fully agree). The potential barriers and facilitators were included in the DCE as decision attributes. Data were gathered among anaesthesiologists, surgical oncologists, and breast care nurses by means of a paper-and-pencil questionnaire.

Results

The overall response was 10%. The most striking finding was that the responses to the traditional questionnaire hardly differentiated between barriers. Forty-seven percent of the respondents thought that DCE is an inappropriate method. These respondents considered DCE too difficult and too time-consuming. Unlike the traditional questionnaire, the results of a DCE provide implementation researchers and clinicians with a relative attribute importance ranking that can be used to prioritize potential barriers and facilitators to change, and hence to better fine-tune the implementation strategies to the specific problems and challenges of a particular implementation process.

Conclusion

The results of our DCE and traditional questionnaire would probably lead to different implementation strategies. Although there is no 'gold standard' for prioritising potential barriers and facilitators to the implementation of change, theoretically, DCE would be the method of choice. However, the feasibility of using DCE was less favourable. Further empirical applications should investigate whether DCE can really make a valuable contribution to the implementation science.     

Explaining invasiveness from the extent of native range: new insights from plant atlases and herbarium specimens

Aim

We tested the relationship between the extent of the native range and the success (number of occurrences) in the introduced range of European vascular plant species naturalized in the province of Québec (Canada). We hypothesized that the performance of models linking native range size and species invasiveness can be improved if residence time and climate tolerance are taken into account.

Methods

The extent of the native range (Europe, Asia) was estimated using plant atlases. The number of occurrences in the introduced range (Québec) was estimated using the number of herbarium specimens stored in herbaria. Herbarium specimens were also used to obtain residence time. Plant hardiness was used as an indicator of the suitability of a species to the climate of the introduced range. Multiple linear regression models, corrected to take into account phylogenetic biases, were used to calculate correlations between the extent of the native range and the number of occurrences in the introduced range.

Results

The larger the native distribution area in Eurasia, the greater the number of occurrences (herbarium specimens) in Québec. The shorter the residence time and the less hardy the plant, the fewer the number of occurrences. In all models tested, the phylogenetic structure explained a significant proportion of the variance, but its influence decreased as the number of species or area studied (Europe versus Eurasia) increased.

Main conclusions

The extent of the native range is a good explanatory variable for the invasion success of vascular plants, especially once other factors (residence time, climate tolerance, phylogeny) are taken into account. Thus, a model using these variables could be used by environmental managers to flag species warranting further investigation. With the emergence of online databases, gathering the required information is becoming easier and cheaper. As online databases continue to improve and new analytical tools are developed, this approach will become even more powerful.