Statistical analysis of structural compensatory growth: how can we reduce the rate of false detection?

Compensatory growth (CG) is a key issue in work aiming at a full understanding of the adaptive significance of growth plasticity and its carryover effects on life-history. The number of studies addressing evolutionary explanations for CG has increased rapidly during the last few years, but there has not been a parallel gain in our understanding of the methodological difficulties associated with the analysis of CG. We point out two features of growth that can have serious consequences for detecting CG: (1) size dependence of growth rates, which causes nonlinearity of growth trajectories, and; (2) temporal overlapping of structural growth and replenishment of energy reserves after a period of famine. We show that the currently used methods can be prone to spurious detection of CG (Type I error) under conditions of nonlinear growth, and therefore lead to the accumulation of a significant amount of false “empirical support.” True and simulated growth data provided consistent results suggesting that a substantial fraction of the existing evidence for CG may be spurious. A small curvature in the growth trajectory can lead to spurious “detection” of CG when control and manipulated trajectories are compared over the same time interval (the “simultaneous” approach). We present a novel, robust method (the “asynchronous” approach) based on the accurate selection of control trajectories and comparison of control and treatment growth rates at different times. This method enables a reliable test to be performed for compensation under asymptotic growth. While the general results of our simulations do not support the application of conventional methods to the general case of nonlinear growth trajectories under the simultaneous approach, simple methods may prove valid if the experimental design allows for asynchronous comparisons. We advocate an alternative approach to deal with “safe” detection of CG that overcomes the problems associated with the occurrence of nonlinear and asymptotic growth, and provide recommendations for improving CG study designs. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Is isolabeling a false image?

Isolabeling in Chinese hamster chromosomes was studied by using a new method which enabled clear demarcation of sister chromatids without the usage of tritium label. The method involved continuous labeling of cells with 5-bromodeoxyuridine and staining of fixed chromosomes with acridine orange. Isolabeling was easily observed in chromosome preparations processed according to the conventional autoradiographic methods, especially in cells treated with ethyl methanesulphonate, and its frequency was dependent on the concentration of the drug. On the other hand, no isolabeling was detected in preparations made by the new method, but exchanges of short segments of sister chromatids were observed frequently, depending upon the concentration of ethyl methanesulphonate. These results strongly suggest that isolabeling observable in autoradiographs is a consequence of sister chromatid exchanges combined with image spread that attends autoradiography.     

What's driving false discovery rates?

The "Paris Guidelines" have begun the process of standardizing reporting for proteomics. New bioinformatics tools have improved the process for estimating error rates of peptide identifications. This perspective seeks to consider these advances in the context of proteomics' short history. As increasing numbers of proteomics papers come from biologists rather than technologists, developing consensus standards for estimating error will be increasingly necessary. Standardizing this assessment should be welcomed as a reflection of the growing impact of proteomic technologies.     

Genetic associations: false or true?

Genetic association studies for multigenetic diseases are like fishing for the truth in a sea of trillions of candidate analyses. Red herrings are unavoidably common, and bias might cause serious misconceptions. However, a sizeable proportion of identified genetic associations are probably true. Meta-analysis, a rigorous, comprehensive, quantitative synthesis of all the available data, might help us to separate the true from the false.     

When should potentially false research findings be considered acceptable?

Ioannidis estimated that most published research findings are false, but he did not indicate when, if at all, potentially false research results may be considered as acceptable to society. We combined our two previously published models to calculate the probability above which research findings may become acceptable. A new model indicates that the probability above which research results should be accepted depends on the expected payback from the research (the benefits) and the inadvertent consequences (the harms). This probability may dramatically change depending on our willingness to tolerate error in accepting false research findings. Our acceptance of research findings changes as a function of what we call "acceptable regret," i.e., our tolerance of making a wrong decision in accepting the research hypothesis. We illustrate our findings by providing a new framework for early stopping rules in clinical research (i.e., when should we accept early findings from a clinical trial indicating the benefits as true?). Obtaining absolute "truth" in research is impossible, and so society has to decide when less-than-perfect results may become acceptable.     

What proportion of declared QTL in plants are false?

The false discovery rate (FDR) is the probability that a quantitative trait locus (QTL) is false, given that a QTL has been declared. A misconception in QTL mapping is that the FDR is equal to the comparison-wise significance level, _C. The objective of this simulation study was to determine the FDR in an F₂ mapping population, given different numbers of QTL, population sizes, and trait heritabilities. Markers linked to QTL were detected by multiple regression of phenotype on marker genotype. Phenotypic selection and marker-based recurrent selection were compared. The FDR increased as _C increased. Notably, the FDR was often 10–30 times higher than the _C level used. Regardless of the number of QTL, heritability, or size of the genome, the FDR was 0.01 when _C was 0.0001. The FDR increased to 0.82 when _C was 0.05, heritability was low, and only one QTL controlled the trait. An _C of 0.05 led to a low FDR when many QTL (30 or 100) controlled the trait, but this lower FDR was accompanied by a diminished power to detect QTL. Larger mapping populations led to both lower a FDR and increased power. Relaxed significance levels of _C=0.1 or 0.2 led to the largest responses to marker-based recurrent selection, despite the high FDR. To prevent false QTL from confusing the literature and databases, a detected QTL should, in general, be reported as a QTL only if it was identified at a stringent significance level, e.g., _C0.0001.Communicated by H.C. Becker     

Does growth rate determine the rate of metabolism in shorebird chicks living in the Arctic?

We measured resting and peak metabolic rates (RMR and PMR, respectively) during development of chicks of seven species of shorebirds: least sandpiper (Calidris minutilla; adult mass 20-22 g), dunlin (Calidris alpina; 56-62 g), lesser yellowlegs (Tringa flavipes; 88-92 g), short-billed dowitcher (Limnodromus griseus; 85-112 g), lesser golden plover (Pluvialis dominicana; 150-156 g), Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica; 205-274 g), and whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus; 380 g). We tested two opposing hypotheses: the growth rate-maturity hypothesis, which posits that growth rate in chicks is inversely related to functional maturity of tissues, and the fast growth rate-high metabolism hypothesis, which suggests that rapid growth is possible only with a concomitant increase in either RMR or PMR. We have found no evidence that chicks of shorebirds with fast growth rates have lower RMRs or lower PMRs, as would be predicted by the growth rate-maturity hypothesis, but our data suggested that faster-growing chest muscles resulted in increased thermogenic capacity, consistent with the fast growth-high metabolism hypothesis. The development of homeothermy in smaller species is a consequence primarily of greater metabolic intensities of heat-generating tissues. The maximum temperature gradient between a chick's body and environment that can be maintained in the absence of a net radiative load increased rapidly with body mass during development and was highest in least sandpipers and lowest among godwits. Chicks of smaller species could maintain a greater temperature gradient at a particular body mass because of their higher mass-specific maximum metabolic rates.     

Potato glycoalkaloids: true safety or false sense of security?

As one of the major agricultural crops, the cultivated potato is consumed each day by millions of people from diverse cultural backgrounds. A product of global importance, the potato tuber contains toxic glycoalkaloids (GAs) that cause sporadic outbreaks of poisoning in humans, as well as many livestock deaths. This article will discuss some aspects of the potato GAs, including their toxic effects and risk factors, methods of detection of GAs and biotechnological aspects of potato breeding. An attempt has been made to answer a question of vital importance - are potato GAs dangerous to humans and animals and, if so, to what extent?     

Hypoxia and temperature: Does hypoxia affect caiman embryo differentiation rate or rate of growth only?

In crocodilians, the rate of embryonic development and consequently many posthatch attributes are affected by temperature. Since temperature exhibits strong influences on fitness (embryo survivorship and phenotype) by shaping development, we manipulated oxygen concentration in order to uncouple the effects of developmental rate from the direct effects of temperature. Here we consider whether oxygen constrains either differentiation rate (progression from one stage to the next) or embryonic growth (size). Thus, we incubated Caiman latirostris eggs at various oxygen concentrations, and at two temperatures (31 °C, 100% female-producing temperature, and 33 °C, 100% male-producing temperature). We monitored the developmental stages of these embryos within the thermosensitive period (stages 20–24), and assessed several physiological and morphological hatchling traits. While embryonic size was strongly influenced by oxygen, differentiation rate did not seem to be affected. Very low oxygen concentrations and high temperatures inhibited embryo survival. In addition, oxygen availability affected incubation period and hatchling size, whereas temperature did not cause a significant variation in hatchling size. By investing energy in differentiation hypoxic embryos decreased their size.     

Can the false-discovery rate be misleading?

The decoy-database approach is currently the gold standard for assessing the confidence of identifications in shotgun proteomic experiments. Here, we demonstrate that what might appear to be a good result under the decoy-database approach for a given false-discovery rate could be, in fact, the product of overfitting. This problem has been overlooked until now and could lead to obtaining boosted identification numbers whose reliability does not correspond to the expected false-discovery rate. To overcome this, we are introducing a modified version of the method, termed a semi-labeled decoy approach, which enables the statistical determination of an overfitted result.     

Climate change and coral reefs: Trojan horse or false prophecy?

Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) claim that much of the concern about the impacts of climate change on coral reefs has been “based on essentially untested assumptions regarding reefs and their capacity to cope with future climate change”. If correct, this claim has important implications for whether or not climate change represents the largest long-term threat to the sustainability of coral reefs, especially given their ad hominem argument that many coral reef scientists are guilty of “popularising worst-case scenarios” at the expense of truth. This article looks critically at the claims made by Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) and comes to a very different conclusion, with the thrust and veracity of their argument being called into question. Contrary to the fears of Grigg (Coral Reefs 11:183–186, 1992), who originally made reference to the Cassandra syndrome due to his concern about the sensationalisation of science, the proposition that coral reefs face enormous challenges from climate change and ocean acidification has and is being established through “careful experimentation, long-term monitoring and objective interpretation”. While this is reassuring, coral reef ecosystems continue to face major challenges from ocean warming and acidification. Given this, it is an imperative that scientists continue to maintain the rigour of their research and to communicate their conclusions as widely and clearly as possible. Given the shortage of time and the magnitude of the problem, there is little time to spare.     

Evolution of RNA genomes: Does the high mutation rate necessitate high rate of evolution of viral proteins?

Summary RNA genomes have been shown to mutate much more frequently than DNA genomes. It is generally assumed that this results in rapid evolution of RNA viral proteins. Here, an alternative hypothesis is proposed that close cooperation between positive-strand RNA viral proteins and those of the host cells required their coevolution, resulting in similar amino acid substitution rates. Constraints on compatibility with cellular proteins should determine, at any time, the covarion sets in RNA viral proteins. These ideas may be helpful in rationalizing the accumulating data on significant sequence similarities between proteins of positive-strand RNA viruses infecting evolutionarily distant hosts as well as between viral and cellular proteins.