Recent trends in breast cancer incidence rates in the Loire-Atlantique,France: A decline since 2003

Background: A recent decline in breast cancer incidence rates has been reported in the United States and in Europe. This decrease has been partly attributed to the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). No study in Europe has detailed recent breast cancer incidence trends both by hormonal receptor status and mode of detection at an individual level. Methods: We examined trends in breast cancer incidence rates in the French administrative area of Loire-Atlantique between 1991 and 2007, by age, mode of detection, histological subtype, estrogen/progesterone receptor (ER/PR) status and grade. Annual age-standardized breast cancer incidence rates were estimated using the Loire-Atlantique and Vendée Cancer Registry data. Annual percentage changes (APCs) were estimated using an age-adjusted Poisson regression model. Results: Incidence rates of breast cancer increased 3.5% per year in 1991–2003, dropped ?4.3% per year in 2003–2006 and increased in 2007 (9.1%). Stratified analyses by age groups showed that the decrease concerned predominantly women aged 50–64 years, whereas an increasing proportion of cancers detected by organized screening was observed in this age group. Among these women, the decline of incidence particularly concerned positive estrogen and progesterone receptor tumors, lobular subtype tumors, and low-grade tumors. Conclusion: The drop in breast cancer incidence rates observed between 2003 and 2006 in women 50–64 years old was greater for ER+PR+ tumors. During the same period, the incidence of breast cancers diagnosed by organized screening increased. These patterns appear consistent with an impact of the reduced use of HRT.     

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005–2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose: To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985–2019 for age groups 15–74 years old through a Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age–drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005–2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of ?2.41% (95% CRI: ?3.65%; ?1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15–74 during 1985–2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15–54 (?1.18%; 95% CRI: ?2.60%; ?0.31%). During 2005–2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985–2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005–2019 among men older than 35.     

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025

Background: Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. Methods: We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976–2005 and stratified them according to younger (25–49) and older age group (50–74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Results: Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1–2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2–1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001–2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021–2025. Conclusions: The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women.     

Trends in esophageal cancer mortality in China during 1987-2009: age, period and birth cohort analyzes

Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study was to provide the representative and comprehensive informations about the long-term mortality trends of this disease in China between 1987 and 2009, using joinpoint regression and generalized additive models (GAMs). Methods: Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35–64 years), were calculated using the direct calculation method, and joinpoint regression was performed to obtain the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). GAMs were fitted to study the effects of age, period and birth cohort on mortality trends. Results: ASMR exhibited an overall remarked decline for rural females (EAPC = ?2.3 95%CI: ?3.3, ?1.2), urban males (EAPC = ?1.8 95%CI: ?2.6, ?1.0) and urban females (EAPC = ?3.7 95%CI: ?4.9, ?2.4), but a small drop observed was not statistically significant for rural males (EAPC = ?0.9 95%CI: ?2.0, 0.3). The declines in ASMR were more noticeable for urban residents in recent years. Among all the residents, age effect showed an progressively increasing trend, whereas cohort effect declined steadily after the year corresponding to the maximum risk value. Period effect seemed to remain substantially unchanged throughout the years. Conclusions: Although variations in mortality rates were observed according to sex and area, the overall decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality were found in most Chinese people, aside from rural males. The findings could correspond to the changes in age- and cohort-related factors in the population. Further study is required to understand these potential factors.     

Fallout from the Chernobyl accident and overall cancer incidence in Finland

Aim: We studied whether incidence of all cancer sites combined was associated with the radiation exposure due to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in Finland. An emphasis was on the first decade after the accident to assess the suggested “promotion effect”. Methods: The segment of Finnish population with a stable residence in the first post-Chernobyl year (2 million people) was studied. The analyses were based on a 250 m × 250 m grid squares covering all of Finland and all cancer cases except cancers of the breast, prostate and lung. Cancer incidence in four exposure areas (based on first-year dose due to external exposure <0.1 mSv, 0.1–1.3, 0.3–0.5, or ≥0.5 mSv) was compared before the Chernobyl accident (1981–1985) and after it (1988–2007) taking into account cancer incidence trends for a longer period prior to the accident (since 1966). Results: There were no systematic differences in the cancer incidence in relation to radiation exposure in any calendar period, or any subgroup by sex or age at accident. Conclusion: The current large and comprehensive cohort analysis of the relatively low levels of the Chernobyl fallout in Finland did not observe a cancer promotion effect.     

Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai,China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years

ObjectiveTo examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.MethodsData on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.ResultsFrom 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.ConclusionAn increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.     

Regional trends in prostate cancer incidence,treatment with curative intent and mortality in Norway 1980–2007

Objectives: To compare the trends in prostate cancer incidence, treatment with curative intent and mortality across regions and counties in Norway, and to consider changes in incidence (an indicator for early diagnosis) and treatment with curative intent as explanatory factors for the decreasing prostate cancer mortality rates. Patients and methods: Prostate cancer incidence and mortality data (1980–2007) alongside treatment data (1987–2005) were obtained from the national, population-based Cancer Registry of Norway. Joinpoint regression models were fitted to age-adjusted incidence, treatment and mortality rates to identify linear changes in the trends. Results: Both age-adjusted incidence rates and rates of curative treatment of prostate cancer increased significantly in all five regions of Norway since the early 1990s. There was a strong positive correlation between increasing incidence and increasing use of curative treatment. The frequency of curative treatment in Western Norway was almost threefold that in the Northern and Central regions around year 2000. Subsequently, the regional trends converged and only minor differences in prostate cancer incidence and use of curative treatment were observed by 2005. The declines in mortality were observed earliest in the regions with the highest incidence and the most frequent use of curative treatment, while the largest decreases in mortality were found in counties where the largest increases in curative treatment were observed. Conclusions: The elucidation of the prostate cancer mortality trends is hindered by an inability to tease out the potential effects of early treatment from the more general impact of improved and more active treatment. However, it is likely that both sets of intervention have contributed to the decline in prostate cancer mortality in Norway since 1996.     

Stomach cancer incidence trends in selected Latin America countries: Age,period, and birth-cohort effects

Backgroundto explore the age, period, and birth-cohort effects on stomach cancer incidence trends during 3 decades in selected Latin American countries.Methodsa time-trend study was performed using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents data from high-quality population-based cancer registries(PBCRs) in Latin American countries. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates(ASRIs) were calculated. Time trends in ASRIs were assessed using the average annual percentage change(AAPC). Age-period-cohort effects were estimated by Poisson regression for individuals aged between 20 and 79 years with stomach cancer informed by PBCRs from 1983 to 2012 in Cali(Colombia); from 1982 to 2011 in Costa Rica; and from 1988 to 2012 for Goiania(Brazil) and Quito(Ecuador). The goodness-of-fit model was tested using the deviance of the models.Resultsa decrease in age-standardized incidence rates was observed for both genders in all populations covered by PBCRs, except for young men from Cali(AAPC 3.89 95 %IC: 1.32–7.29). The age effect was statistically significant in all areas, and the curve slope reached peaks in the older age groups. The cohort effect was observed in all PBCRs. Regarding the period effect, an increased ratio rate was observed for both genders in Costa Rica(1997–2001 women RR 1.11 95 %CI: 1.05–1.17; men RR 1.12 95 %CI: 1.08–1.17) and Goiânia(2003–2007 women RR 1.21 95 %CI: 1.08–1.35; men RR 1.09 95 %CI: 1.01–1.20), while Quito(1998–2002 women RR 0.89 95 %CI: 0.81–0.98; men RR 0.86 95 %CI: 0.79–0.93) presented a decrease.Conclusionthe present study showed a decreasing gastric cancer trend for over the past 30 years with gender and geographic variations. Such a decrease seems to be mainly a result of cohort effects, suggesting that the economic market opening process led to changes in the risk factor exposures over successive generations. These geographic and gender variations may reflect cultural/ethnic/gender differences and differences in dietary and smoking rate patterns. However, an increased incidence was observed for young men in Cali, and additional studies are needed to determine the cause of the increasing incidence in this group.     

Regional Variations in Esophageal Cancer Rates by Census Region in the United States, 1999–2008

Background

Assessment of cancer incidence trends within the U.S. have mostly relied upon Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, with implicit inference that such is representative of the general population. However, many cancer policy decisions are based at a more granular level. To help inform such, analyses of regional cancer incidence data are needed. Leveraging the unique resource of National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR)-SEER, we assessed whether regional rates and trends of esophageal cancer significantly deviated from national estimates.

Methods

From NPCR-SEER, we extracted cancer case counts and populations for whites aged 45–84 years by calendar year, histology, sex, and census region for the period 1999–2008. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs), annual percent changes (APCs), and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

Results

This analysis included 65,823 esophageal adenocarcinomas and 27,094 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas diagnosed during 778 million person-years. We observed significant geographic variability in incidence rates and trends, especially for esophageal adenocarcinomas in males: ASRs were highest in the Northeast (17.7 per 100,000) and Midwest (18.1). Both were significantly higher than the national estimate (16.0). In addition, the Northeast APC was 62% higher than the national estimate (3.19% vs. 1.97%). Lastly, IRRs remained fairly constant across calendar time, despite changes in incidence rates.

Conclusion

Significant regional variations in esophageal cancer incidence trends exist in the U.S. Stable IRRs may indicate the predominant factors affecting incidence rates are similar in men and women.     

Changes in prostate cancer incidence,mortality and survival in relation to prostate specific antigen testing in New South Wales,Australia

BackgroundTo examine changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates, and 5-year relative survival, in relation to changes in the rate of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening tests and the use of radical prostatectomy (RP) in the Australian population.MethodsProstate cancer stage-specific incidence rates, 5-year relative survival and mortality rates were estimated using New South Wales Cancer Registry data. PSA screening test rates and RP/Incidence ratios were estimated from Medicare Benefits Schedule claims data. We used multiple imputation to impute stage for cases with “unknown” stage at diagnosis. Annual percentage changes (APC) in rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression.ResultsTrends in the age-standardized incidence rates for localized disease largely mirrored the trends in PSA screening test rates, with a substantial ‘spike’ in the rates occurring in 1994, followed by a second ‘spike’ in 2008, and then a significant decrease from 2008 to 2015 (APC −6.7, 95% CI −8.2, −5.1). Increasing trends in incidence rates were observed for regional stage from the early 2000s, while decreasing or stable trends were observed for distant stage since 1993. The overall RP/Incidence ratio increased from 1998 to 2003 (APC 9.6, 95% CI 3.8, 15.6), then remained relatively stable to 2015. The overall 5-year relative survival for prostate cancer increased from 58.4% (95% CI: 55.0–61.7%) in 1981–1985 to 91.3% (95% CI: 90.5–92.1%) in 2011–2015. Prostate cancer mortality rates decreased from 1990 onwards (1990–2006: APC −1.7, 95% CI −2.1, −1.2; 2006–2017: APC −3.8, 95% CI −4.4, −3.1).ConclusionsOverall, there was a decrease in the incidence rate of localized prostate cancer after 2008, an increase in survival over time and a decrease in the mortality rate since the 1990s. This seems to indicate that the more conservative use of PSA screening tests in clinical practice since 2008 has not had a negative impact on population-wide prostate cancer outcomes.     

Past trends and future prediction of mesothelioma incidence in an industrialized area of Italy,the Veneto Region

Background Malignant Mesothelioma (MM) is so associated with (professional, familial or environmental) asbestos exposure that trends in incidence and mortality parallel, after 30–40 years, the trend in asbestos consumption. In recent decades, the industrialized countries have witnessed a steady growth of pleural MM (MPM), following a stabilization or decline in rates in the countries that first adopted restrictive policies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal variations of pleural MM incidence in the Veneto Region of Italy in the period 1987–2010. Methods We included only MPM with histological or cytological diagnosis. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models were used to assess the trend in the incidence of MPM in both genders. Future predictions were evaluated by using a Bayesian APC model. Results In the period 1987–2010, 1600 MPMs have occurred. We observe a positive trend in the incidence in the whole period considered. The APC model showed that in both genders the cohort at higher risk is the one born between the years 1940–1945. Future projections indicate that the trend will decrease after the incidence peak of 2010; yet 1234 men are expected to develop a mesothelioma between 2011 and 2026. Among women, the future MPM rates will be stable or slightly decreasing. Conclusions The asbestos ban introduced in Italy in the year 1992 as a prospective result will certainly determine a decreasing incidence. However, the extremely long latency of MPM means that its influence is not yet observable.     

Marked increase in breast cancer incidence in young women: A 10-year study from Northern Iran, 2004–2013

IntroductionBreast cancer is the most frequent cancer among women worldwide. Breast cancer incidence in young women is a health issue of concern, especially in middle-income countries such as Iran. The aim of this study is to report the breast cancer incidence variations in Golestan province, Iran, over a 10-year period (2004–2013).MethodsWe analyzed data from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR), which is a high-quality cancer registry collecting data on primary cancers based on standard protocols throughout the Golestan province. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Time trends in ASRs and age-specific rates were evaluated using Joinpoint regressions. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with correspondence 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated.ResultsA total of 2106 new breast cancer cases were diagnosed during the study period. Most cases occurred in women living in urban areas: 1449 cases (68%) versus 657 cases (31%) in rural areas. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed over the 10-year study period amongst women of all ages (AAPC = 4.4; 95%CI: 1.2–7.8) as well as amongst women in the age groups 20–29 years (AAPC = 10.0; 95%CI: 1.7–19.0) and 30–39 years (AAPC = 5.1; 95%CI: 1.4–9.0).ConclusionThe incidence of breast cancer increased between 2004 and 2013 in Golestan province amongst all age groups, and in particular amongst women aged 20–39 years. Breast cancer should be considered a high priority for health policy making in our community.     

Impact of the UK colorectal cancer screening pilot studies on incidence, stage distribution and mortality trends

Objective: To assess the impact of the UK colorectal cancer guaiac faecal occult blood test screening pilot studies on incidence trends, stage distribution and mortality trends. Design: Ecological study. Setting: Scotland and the West Midlands. Data: We extracted anonymised colorectal cancer (ICD-10 C18–C20) registration (1982–2006) and death records (1982–2007), along with corresponding mid-year population estimates. Intervention: Residents of the screening pilot areas, in the age group 50–69 years, were offered biennial guaiac faecal occult blood test screening from 2000 onwards. Screening was not offered routinely in non-pilot areas until the start of the roll-out of the national screening programmes in England and in Scotland in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Main outcome measures: We analysed trends in age-specific incidence and mortality rates, and Dukes’ stage distribution. Within each country/region, we compared the screening pilot areas to non-screening pilot (‘control’) areas using Chi square tests and Poisson regression modelling. Results: Following the start of the screening pilots, as expected in the prevalent round of a new screening programme, in the pilot areas there was a short-lived increase in incidence of colorectal cancer among 50–69 year olds except for females in the West Midlands. A trend towards earlier stage and less advanced disease was also observed, with males showing significant increases in Dukes’ A and corresponding decreases in Dukes’ C in the screening pilot areas (all P < 0.03). With the exception of females in the West Midlands, mortality rates for colorectal cancer decreased significantly and at a faster rate in the populations invited for screening. Conclusion: The existence of a natural control population not yet invited for screening provided a unique opportunity to assess whether the benefits of colorectal cancer screening, beyond the setting of a randomised controlled trial, could be detected using routinely collected statistics. Our analysis suggests that screening will fulfil its aim of reducing mortality from colorectal cancer.     

Trends in incidence of,and mortality from,cervical lesions in Ireland: Baseline data for future evaluation of the national cervical screening programme

AimTo investigate incidence and mortality trends for cervical lesions in Ireland in the period 1994–2008.MethodsWe used data from the National Cancer Registry, Ireland and national death registration data to calculate age-standardised rates for the periods of interest. We used standardised rate ratios to test whether incidence was associated with socio-demographic variables and used Joinpoint to examine trends by morphology grouping.ResultsIncidence of cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) rose over the period 1994–2008. The annual percentage change for cervical cancer was 1.8% and that for CIN3 was 3.8%. Women resident in the most deprived areas had invasive cervical cancer incidence almost twice as high as those resident in the least deprived areas (standardised rate ratio (SRR) = 1.8). Comparing incidence in Ireland to England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in the three years 2005–2007, the SRRs (other areas vs. Ireland) were 0.70, 0.88 and 0.84 respectively. Cervical cancer rates have fallen in these countries in the same period that there is a rise demonstrated in Ireland.ConclusionIncidence rates of cervical cancer rose in Ireland steadily, albeit modestly, during 1994–2008, most likely due to long-term changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and contraceptive use. A more pronounced rise in CIN3 rates point to considerable levels of opportunistic screening during this period. Mortality rates have changed little over the past four decades, in contrast to trends in countries with well-organised screening programmes.     

Cancer incidence in Dutch Balkan veterans

Suspicion has been raised about an increased cancer risk among Balkan veterans because of alleged exposure to depleted uranium. The authors conducted a historical cohort study to examine cancer incidence among Dutch Balkan veterans. Male military personnel (n = 18,175, median follow-up 11 years) of the Army and Military Police who had been deployed to the Balkan region (1993–2001) was compared with their peers not deployed to the Balkans (n = 135,355, median follow-up 15 years) and with the general Dutch population of comparable age and sex. The incidence of all cancers and 4 main cancer subgroups was studied in the period 1993–2008. The cancer incidence rate among Balkan deployed military men was 17% lower than among non-Balkan deployed military men (hazard ratio 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.69, 1.00)). For the 4 main cancer subgroups, hazard ratios were statistically non-significantly below 1. Also compared to the general population cancer rates were lower in Balkan deployed personnel (standardised incidence rate ratio (SIR) 0.85 (0.73, 0.99). The SIR for leukaemia was 0.63 (0.20, 1.46). The authors conclude that earlier suggestions of increased cancer risks among veterans are not supported by empirical data. The lower risk of cancer might be explained by the ‘healthy warrior effect’.     

Incidence,survival and mortality rates of stage-specific bladder cancer in United States: A trend analysis

PurposeTo examine the overall and stage-specific age-adjusted incidence, 5-year survival and mortality rates of bladder cancer (BCa) in the United States, between 1973 and 2009.Materials and methodsA total of 148,315 BCa patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database, between years 1973 and 2009. Incidence, mortality, and 5-year cancer-specific survival rates were calculated. Temporal trends were quantified using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and linear regression models. All analyses were stratified according to disease stage, and further examined according to sex, race, and age groups.ResultsIncidence rate of BCa increased from 21.0 to 25.5/100,000 person-years between 1973 and 2009. Stage-specific analyses revealed an increase incidence for localized stage: 15.4–20.2 (EAPC: +0.5%, p < 0.001) and distant stage: 0.5–0.8 (EAPC: +0.7%, p = 0.001). Stage-specific 5-year survival rates increased for all stages, except for distant disease. No significant changes in mortality were recorded among localized (EAPC: ?0.2%, p = 0.1) and regional stage (EAPC: ?0.1%, p = 0.5). An increase in mortality rates was observed among distant stage (EAPC: +1.0%, p = 0.005). Significant variations in incidence and mortality were recorded when estimates were stratified according to sex, race, and age groups.DiscussionAlbeit statistically significant, virtually all changes in incidence and mortality were minor, and hardly of any clinical importance. Little or no change in BCa cancer control outcomes has been achieved during the study period.     

Trends in incidence and survival from anal cancer and incidence of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia in Denmark

ObjectiveThe aim of the current study was to assess temporal trends in incidence of anal squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) and high-grade anal intraepithelial lesions (AIN2/3), and estimate survival from anal cancer and factors related to 5-year mortality in Denmark.MethodsWe analyzed anal SCC and AIN2/3 cases in the period of 1998–2018 from the Danish Cancer Register and the Danish Registry of Pathology, respectively. Overall, period, gender, and histology specific age-standardized incidence rates, average annual percentage change (AAPC), and 5-year relative survival were estimated. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the effect on 5-year mortality of period, age, gender, and stage of disease.ResultsAltogether 2580 anal cancers and 871 AIN2/3 were identified. The AIN2/3 incidence increased for women 1998–2007 (AAPC: 3.5% (95% CI −0.7, 8.0)) and then tended to decrease during 2008–2018(AAPC: −5.2% (95% CI −9.6, −0.6)). A similar pattern was observed for men, although at a lower incidence with the decrease starting later (2008–2012) and the trend not reaching statistical significance. The anal SCC incidence increased over the whole study period for both women and men (women AAPC: 4.0% (95% CI 3.2%, 4.9%) and men AAPC: 3.6% (95% CI 2.3%, 4.9%)). The relative survival improved over time (from 61% to 72%). Being older and male was associated with a higher risk of dying within 5 years.ConclusionsThere is a need to focus attention on anal cancer and its precursor lesions, as the cancer incidence continues to increase. Actions could include screening and gender-neutral HPV vaccination.