Improving the Clinical Diagnosis of Influenza—a Comparative Analysis of New Influenza A (H1N1) Cases

Background

The presentation of new influenza A(H1N1) is broad and evolving as it continues to affect different geographic locations and populations. To improve the accuracy of predicting influenza infection in an outpatient setting, we undertook a comparative analysis of H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and persons with acute respiratory illness (ARI) in an outpatient setting.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Comparative analyses of one hundred non-matched cases each of PCR confirmed H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and ARI cases. Multivariate analysis was performed to look for predictors of influenza infection. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for various combinations of clinical and laboratory case definitions. The initial clinical and laboratory features of H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza were similar. Among ARI cases, fever, cough, headache, rhinorrhea, the absence of leukocytosis, and a normal chest radiograph positively predict for both PCR-confirmed H1N1-2009 and seasonal influenza infection. The sensitivity and specificity of current WHO and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria were modest in predicting influenza infection. However, the combination of WHO ILI criteria with the absence of leukocytosis greatly improved the accuracy of diagnosing H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza (positive LR of 7.8 (95%CI 3.5–17.5) and 9.2 (95%CI 4.1–20.3) respectively).

Conclusions/Significance

The clinical presentation of H1N1(2009) infection is largely indistinguishable from that of seasonal influenza. Among patients with acute respiratory illness, features such as a temperature greater than 38°C, rhinorrhea, a normal chest radiograph, and the absence of leukocytosis or significant gastrointestinal symptoms were all positively associated with H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza infection. An enhanced ILI criteria that combines both a symptom complex with the absence of leukocytosis on testing can improve the accuracy of predicting both seasonal and H1N1-2009 influenza infection.     

Preclinical Evaluation of a Replication-Deficient Intranasal ΔNS1 H5N1 Influenza Vaccine

Background

We developed a novel intranasal influenza vaccine approach that is based on the construction of replication-deficient vaccine viruses that lack the entire NS1 gene (ΔNS1 virus). We previously showed that these viruses undergo abortive replication in the respiratory tract of animals. The local release of type I interferons and other cytokines and chemokines in the upper respiratory tract may have a “self-adjuvant effect”, in turn increasing vaccine immunogenicity. As a result, ΔNS1 viruses elicit strong B- and T- cell mediated immune responses.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We applied this technology to the development of a pandemic H5N1 vaccine candidate. The vaccine virus was constructed by reverse genetics in Vero cells, as a 5∶3 reassortant, encoding four proteins HA, NA, M1, and M2 of the A/Vietnam/1203/04 virus while the remaining genes were derived from IVR-116. The HA cleavage site was modified in a trypsin dependent manner, serving as the second attenuation factor in addition to the deleted NS1 gene. The vaccine candidate was able to grow in the Vero cells that were cultivated in a serum free medium to titers exceeding 8 log₁₀ TCID_50/ml. The vaccine virus was replication deficient in interferon competent cells and did not lead to viral shedding in the vaccinated animals. The studies performed in three animal models confirmed the safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine. Intranasal immunization protected ferrets and mice from being infected with influenza H5 viruses of different clades. In a primate model (Macaca mulatta), one dose of vaccine delivered intranasally was sufficient for the induction of antibodies against homologous A/Vietnam/1203/04 and heterologous A/Indonesia/5/05 H5N1 strains.

Conclusion/Significance

Our findings show that intranasal immunization with the replication deficient H5N1 ΔNS1 vaccine candidate is sufficient to induce a protective immune response against H5N1 viruses. This approach might be attractive as an alternative to conventional influenza vaccines. Clinical evaluation of ΔNS1 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine candidates are currently in progress.     

Comparison of Shedding Characteristics of Seasonal Influenza Virus (Sub)Types and Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09; Germany, 2007–2011

Background

Influenza viral shedding studies provide fundamental information for preventive strategies and modelling exercises. We conducted a prospective household study to investigate viral shedding in seasonal and pandemic influenza between 2007 and 2011 in Berlin and Munich, Germany.

Methods

Study physicians recruited index patients and their household members. Serial nasal specimens were obtained from all household members over at least eight days and tested quantitatively by qRT-PCR for the influenza virus (sub)type of the index patient. A subset of samples was also tested by viral culture. Symptoms were recorded daily.

Results

We recruited 122 index patients and 320 household contacts, of which 67 became secondary household cases. Among all 189 influenza cases, 12 were infected with seasonal/prepandemic influenza A(H1N1), 19 with A(H3N2), 60 with influenza B, and 98 with A(H1N1)pdm09. Nine (14%) of 65 non-vaccinated secondary cases were asymptomatic/subclinical (0 (0%) of 21 children, 9 (21%) of 44 adults; p = 0.03). Viral load among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) peaked on illness days 1, 2 or 3 for all (sub)types and declined steadily until days 7–9. Clinical symptom scores roughly paralleled viral shedding dynamics. On the first day prior to symptom onset 30% (12/40) of specimens were positive. Viral load in 6 asymptomatic/subclinical patients was similar to that in ILI-patients. Duration of infectiousness as measured by viral culture lasted approximately until illness days 4–6. Viral load did not seem to be influenced by antiviral therapy, age or vaccination status.

Conclusion

Asymptomatic/subclinical infections occur infrequently, but may be associated with substantial amounts of viral shedding. Presymptomatic shedding may arise in one third of cases, and shedding characteristics appear to be independent of (seasonal or pandemic) (sub)type, age, antiviral therapy or vaccination; however the power to find moderate differences was limited.     

A Two-Year Surveillance of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in Guangzhou,China: From Pandemic to Seasonal Influenza?

In this two-years surveillance of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) in Guangzhou, China, we reported here that the scale and duration of pH1N1 outbreaks, severe disease and fatality rates of pH1N1 patients were significantly lower or shorter in the second epidemic year (May 2010-April 2011) than those in the first epidemic year (May 2009-April 2010) (P<0.05), but similar to those of seasonal influenza (P>0.05). Similar to seasonal influenza, pre-existing chronic pulmonary diseases was a risk factor associated with fatal cases of pH1N1 influenza. Different from seasonal influenza, which occurred in spring/summer seasons annually, pH1N1 influenza mainly occurred in autumn/winter seasons in the first epidemic year, but prolonged to winter/spring season in the second epidemic year. The information suggests a tendency that the epidemics of pH1N1 influenza may probably further shift to spring/summer seasons and become a predominant subtype of seasonal influenza in coming years in Guangzhou, China.     

Wild Bird’s-eye View of Influenza Virus A(H1N1) Phylogenetic Evolution

Wild bird fecal samples collected and characterized by the USDA as part of a national surveillance effort were sequenced to study the genetic relatedness of avian, swine, and human H1 and N1 subtypes. Our results find that the 2009 H1N1 human outbreak is closely related to swine virus, but falls into different clades in the H1 and N1 trees. Further, there is evidence of multiple viral genetic exchanges between birds and swine. Ongoing research across host species contributes to an understanding of the circulation of influenza viruses.     

Incidence and Epidemiology of Hospitalized Influenza Cases in Rural Thailand during the Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic, 2009–2010

Background

Data on the burden of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Asia are limited. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was first reported in Thailand in May 2009. We assessed incidence and epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalizations during 2009–2010.

Methods

We conducted active, population-based surveillance for hospitalized cases of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in all 20 hospitals in two rural provinces. ALRI patients were sampled 1∶2 for participation in an etiology study in which nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for influenza virus testing by PCR.

Results

Of 7,207 patients tested, 902 (12.5%) were influenza-positive, including 190 (7.8%) of 2,436 children aged <5 years; 86% were influenza A virus (46% A(H1N1)pdm09, 30% H3N2, 6.5% H1N1, 3.5% not subtyped) and 13% were influenza B virus. Cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 first peaked in August 2009 when 17% of tested patients were positive. Subsequent peaks during 2009 and 2010 represented a mix of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, H3N2, and influenza B viruses. The estimated annual incidence of hospitalized influenza cases was 136 per 100,000, highest in ages <5 years (477 per 100,000) and >75 years (407 per 100,000). The incidence of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 62 per 100,000 (214 per 100,000 in children <5 years). Eleven influenza-infected patients required mechanical ventilation, and four patients died, all adults with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (1) or H3N2 (3).

Conclusions

Influenza-associated hospitalization rates in Thailand during 2009–10 were substantial and exceeded rates described in western countries. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 predominated, but H3N2 also caused notable morbidity. Expanded influenza vaccination coverage could have considerable public health impact, especially in young children.     

Influenza Infectious Dose May Explain the High Mortality of the Second and Third Wave of 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic

Background

It is widely accepted that the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic was due to a genetic change in the virus. In animal models, the infectious dose of influenza A virus was associated to the severity of disease which lead us to propose a new hypothesis. We propose that the increase in the case-fatality rate can be explained by the dynamics of disease and by a dose-dependent response mediated by the number of simultaneous contacts a susceptible person has with infectious ones.

Methods

We used a compartment model with seasonality, waning of immunity and a Holling type II function, to model simultaneous contacts between a susceptible person and infectious ones. In the model, infected persons having mild or severe illness depend both on the proportion of infectious persons in the population and on the level of simultaneous contacts between a susceptible and infectious persons. We further allowed for a high or low rate of waning immunity and volunteer isolation at different times of the epidemic.

Results

In all scenarios, case-fatality rate was low during the first wave (Spring) due to a decrease in the effective reproduction number. The case-fatality rate in the second wave (Autumn) depended on the ratio between the number of severe cases to the number of mild cases since, for each 1000 mild infections only 4 deaths occurred whereas for 1000 severe infections there were 20 deaths. A third wave (late Winter) was dependent on the rate for waning immunity or on the introduction of new susceptible persons in the community. If a group of persons became voluntarily isolated and returned to the community some days latter, new waves occurred. For a fixed number of infected persons the overall case-fatality rate decreased as the number of waves increased. This is explained by the lower proportion of infectious individuals in each wave that prevented an increase in the number of severe infections and thus of the case-fatality rate.

Conclusion

The increase on the proportion of infectious persons as a proxy for the increase of the infectious dose a susceptible person is exposed, as the epidemic develops, can explain the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic.     

Efficacy of Influenza Vaccination and Tamiflu? Treatment – Comparative Studies with Eurasian Swine Influenza Viruses in Pigs

Recent epidemiological developments demonstrated that gene segments of swine influenza A viruses can account for antigenic changes as well as reduced drug susceptibility of pandemic influenza A viruses. This raises questions about the efficacy of preventive measures against swine influenza A viruses. Here, the protective effect of vaccination was compared with that of prophylactic Tamiflu® treatment against two Eurasian swine influenza A viruses. 11-week-old pigs were infected by aerosol nebulisation with high doses of influenza virus A/swine/Potsdam/15/1981 (H1N1/1981, heterologous challenge to H1N1 vaccine strain) and A/swine/Bakum/1832/2000 (H1N2/2000, homologous challenge to H1N2 vaccine strain) in two independent trials. In each trial (i) 10 pigs were vaccinated twice with a trivalent vaccine (RESPIPORC® FLU3; 28 and 7 days before infection), (ii) another 10 pigs received 150 mg/day of Tamiflu® for 5 days starting 12 h before infection, and (iii) 12 virus-infected pigs were left unvaccinated and untreated and served as controls. Both viruses replicated efficiently in porcine respiratory organs causing influenza with fever, dyspnoea, and pneumonia. Tamiflu® treatment as well as vaccination prevented clinical signs and significantly reduced virus shedding. Whereas after homologous challenge with H1N2/2000 no infectious virus in lung and hardly any lung inflammation were detected, the virus titre was not and the lung pathology was only partially reduced in H1N1/1981, heterologous challenged pigs. Tamiflu® application did not affect these study parameters.In conclusion, all tested preventive measures provided protection against disease. Vaccination additionally prevented virus replication and histopathological changes in the lung of homologous challenged pigs.     

PLC-γ1 Signaling Plays a Subtype-Specific Role in Postbinding Cell Entry of Influenza A Virus

Host signaling pathways and cellular proteins play important roles in the influenza viral life cycle and can serve as antiviral targets. In this study, we report the engagement of host phosphoinositide-specific phospholipase γ1 (PLC-γ1) in mediating cell entry of influenza virus H1N1 but not H3N2 subtype. Both PLC-γ1-specific inhibitor and short hairpin RNA (shRNA) strongly suppress the replication of H1N1 but not H3N2 viruses in cell culture, suggesting that PLC-γ1 plays an important subtype-specific role in the influenza viral life cycle. Further analyses demonstrate that PLC-γ1 activation is required for viral postbinding cell entry. In addition, H1N1, but not H3N2, infection leads to the phosphorylation of PLC-γ1 at Ser 1248 immediately after infection and independent of viral replication. We have further shown that H1N1-induced PLC-γ1 activation is downstream of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling. Interestingly, both H1N1 and H3N2 infections activate EGFR, but only H1N1 infection leads to PLC-γ1 activation. Taking our findings together, we have identified for the first time the subtype-specific interplay of host PLC-γ1 signaling and H1N1 virus that is critical for viral uptake early in the infection. Our study provides novel insights into how virus interacts with the cellular signaling network by demonstrating that viral determinants can regulate how the host signaling pathways function in virally infected cells.     

Regulation of Interferon-β by MAGI-1 and Its Interaction with Influenza A Virus NS1 Protein with ESEV PBM

The NS1 protein from avian influenza A viruses contains a PDZ binding motif (PBM) at its carboxyl terminus with the consensus sequence ESEV. The ESEV PBM confers binding to several cellular PDZ proteins, including Dlg1, MAGI-1 and Scribble. The interaction between NS1 and Scribble protects infected cells from apoptosis, while the interaction between NS1 and both Dlg1 and Scribble disrupts tight junctions. In this study, we examined the MAGI-1 protein. We made the unexpected observation that siRNA depletion of MAGI-1 activates IRF3 and induces the IFN-β promoter. We found that the ESEV NS1 protein sequesters MAGI-1 away from the plasma membrane in infected cells. Using plasmid vectors to express NS1 proteins, we observed that the ESEV PBM elicits an IFN-β induction signal as indicated by activation of IRF3 and a relative deficiency in NS1 inhibition of induction of the IFN-β promoter by dsRNA or RIG-I. Taken together, our data suggest that disruption of MAGI-1 by the ESEV PBM activates an IFN-β induction signal. During viral infection, however, induction of the IFN-β gene does not occur presumably because other anti-IFN functions dominate over the IFN-activation activity of the ESEV PBM. We postulate that the ESEV PBM's broad binding activity for PDZ proteins may allow NS1 to bind to some PDZ proteins such as MAGI-1 that confer no benefit or may even be detrimental to viral replication. However, the advantage of binding to key PDZ proteins such as Dlg1 and Scribble may dominate and therefore provide an overall benefit for the virus to encode the ESEV PBM.     

Can Interactions between Timing of Vaccine-Altered Influenza Pandemic Waves and Seasonality in Influenza Complications Lead to More Severe Outcomes?

Vaccination can delay the peak of a pandemic influenza wave by reducing the number of individuals initially susceptible to influenza infection. Emerging evidence indicates that susceptibility to severe secondary bacterial infections following a primary influenza infection may vary seasonally, with peak susceptibility occurring in winter. Taken together, these two observations suggest that vaccinating to prevent a fall pandemic wave might delay it long enough to inadvertently increase influenza infections in winter, when primary influenza infection is more likely to cause severe outcomes. This could potentially cause a net increase in severe outcomes. Most pandemic models implicitly assume that the probability of severe outcomes does not vary seasonally and hence cannot capture this effect. Here we show that the probability of intensive care unit (ICU) admission per influenza infection in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic followed a seasonal pattern. We combine this with an influenza transmission model to investigate conditions under which a vaccination program could inadvertently shift influenza susceptibility to months where the risk of ICU admission due to influenza is higher. We find that vaccination in advance of a fall pandemic wave can actually increase the number of ICU admissions in situations where antigenic drift is sufficiently rapid or where importation of a cross-reactive strain is possible. Moreover, this effect is stronger for vaccination programs that prevent more primary influenza infections. Sensitivity analysis indicates several mechanisms that may cause this effect. We also find that the predicted number of ICU admissions changes dramatically depending on whether the probability of ICU admission varies seasonally, or whether it is held constant. These results suggest that pandemic planning should explore the potential interactions between seasonally varying susceptibility to severe influenza outcomes and the timing of vaccine-altered pandemic influenza waves.     

The Effect of Age and Recent Influenza Vaccination History on the Immunogenicity and Efficacy of 2009–10 Seasonal Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccination in Children

Background

There is some evidence that annual vaccination of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) may lead to reduced vaccine immunogenicity but evidence is lacking on whether vaccine efficacy is affected by prior vaccination history. The efficacy of one dose of TIV in children 6–8 y of age against influenza B is uncertain. We examined whether immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccination in school-age children varied by age and past vaccination history.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 2009–10 TIV. Influenza vaccination history in the two preceding years was recorded. Immunogenicity was assessed by comparison of HI titers before and one month after receipt of TIV/placebo. Subjects were followed up for 11 months with symptom diaries, and respiratory specimens were collected during acute respiratory illnesses to permit confirmation of influenza virus infections. We found that previous vaccination was associated with reduced antibody responses to TIV against seasonal A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) particularly in children 9–17 y of age, but increased antibody responses to the same lineage of influenza B virus in children 6–8 y of age. Serological responses to the influenza A vaccine viruses were high regardless of vaccination history. One dose of TIV appeared to be efficacious against confirmed influenza B in children 6–8 y of age regardless of vaccination history.

Conclusions

Prior vaccination was associated with lower antibody titer rises following vaccination against seasonal influenza A vaccine viruses, but higher responses to influenza B among individuals primed with viruses from the same lineage in preceding years. In a year in which influenza B virus predominated, no impact of prior vaccination history was observed on vaccine efficacy against influenza B. The strains that circulated in the year of study did not allow us to study the effect of prior vaccination on vaccine efficacy against influenza A.     

Antiviral Activity of a New Class of Chemically Modified Antisense Oligonucleotides against Influenza А Virus

Russian Journal of Bioorganic Chemistry - The paper reports the synthesis of a series of antisense oligonucleotides (aONs) directed against different segments of the influenza A virus genome (H1N1)...     

Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of the Novel 2009 Swine Influenza (H1N1) Pandemic

The paper presents a deterministic compartmental model for the transmission dynamics of swine influenza (H1N1) pandemic in a population in the presence of an imperfect vaccine and use of drug therapy for confirmed cases. Rigorous analysis of the model, which stratifies the infected population in terms of their risk of developing severe illness, reveals that it exhibits a vaccine-induced backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The epidemiological consequence of this result is that the effective control of H1N1, when the reproduction number is less than unity, in the population would then be dependent on the initial sizes of the subpopulations of the model. For the case where the vaccine is perfect, it is shown that having the reproduction number less than unity is necessary and sufficient for effective control of H1N1 in the population (in such a case, the associated disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable). The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number exceeds unity. Numerical simulations of the model, using data relevant to the province of Manitoba, Canada, show that it reasonably mimics the observed H1N1 pandemic data for Manitoba during the first (Spring) wave of the pandemic. Further, it is shown that the timely implementation of a mass vaccination program together with the size of the Manitoban population that have preexisting infection-acquired immunity (from the first wave) are crucial to the magnitude of the expected burden of disease associated with the second wave of the H1N1 pandemic. With an estimated vaccine efficacy of approximately 80%, it is projected that at least 60% of Manitobans need to be vaccinated in order for the effective control or elimination of the H1N1 pandemic in the province to be feasible. Finally, it is shown that the burden of the second wave of H1N1 is expected to be at least three times that of the first wave, and that the second wave would last until the end of January or early February, 2010.     

Serological Cross-Reactions Between the Hemagglutinin Subunits of H0N1 and H1N1 Influenza Viruses Detected with “Monospecific” Antisera

"Monospecific" antisera to the "fragile" hemaglutinnis of H0N1 (PR8) and H1N1 (FM1) influenza viruses detected an asymmetrical cross-reaction between these two strains that could not be explained by a common neuraminidase.