Simulating the dispersal of hemlock woolly adelgid in the temperate forest understory

The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA), Adelges tsugae Annand (Hemiptera: Adelgidae), has spread rapidly across the eastern USA since its introduction from Japan 60 years ago, causing widespread mortality of both eastern hemlock [Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière] and Carolina hemlock [Tsuga caroliniana Engelm. (Pinaceae)]. Although HWA spread patterns have been repeatedly analyzed at regional scales, comparatively little is known about its dispersal potential within and between hemlock stands. As the small size and clonal nature of HWA make it nearly impossible to identify the source populations of dispersing individuals, we simulated intra‐stand HWA movement in the field by monitoring the movement of clumps of fluorescent powder that are slightly larger than HWA, but much easier to detect in the forest understory. Using three hemlock trees with three colors of fluorescent powder as source populations, we detected dispersal events at the farthest distances within our trapping array (400 m). However, more than 90% of dispersal events were <25 m. Dispersal patterns were similar from all three source trees and the distribution of dispersal distances in all cases could be described by lognormal probability density functions with mean dispersal distance of 12–14 m, suggesting that dispersal was relatively independent of location of source trees. In general, we documented tens of thousands of passive dispersal events in the forest understory despite the presence of a dense forest canopy. Thus, even under relatively light‐wind conditions, particles of similar dimensions to HWA are capable of intra‐stand movement, suggesting that a large population of HWA could rapidly infest other trees within several hundred meter radius, or beyond.     

Local dispersal can facilitate coexistence in the presence of permanent spatial heterogeneity

Abstract In the presence of permanent spatial heterogeneity, local dispersal, especially short‐range dispersal, can facilitate coexistence by concentrating low‐density species in the areas where their rates of increase are higher. We present a framework for predicting the effects of local dispersal on coexistence for arbitrary forms of dispersal and arbitrary spatial patterns of environmental variation. Using the lottery model as an example, we find that local dispersal contributes to coexistence by enhancing the effects of environmental variation on scales longer than typical dispersal distances, which can be characterized solely by the variance of the dispersal kernel. Higher moments of the dispersal kernel are not important.     

Tree growth variation in the tropical forest: understanding effects of temperature,rainfall and CO2

Tropical forest responses to climatic variability have important consequences for global carbon cycling, but are poorly understood. As empirical, correlative studies cannot disentangle the interactive effects of climatic variables on tree growth, we used a tree growth model (IBTREE) to unravel the climate effects on different physiological pathways and in turn on stem growth variation. We parameterized the model for canopy trees of Toona ciliata (Meliaceae) from a Thai monsoon forest and compared predicted and measured variation from a tree‐ring study over a 30‐year period. We used historical climatic variation of minimum and maximum day temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) in different combinations to estimate the contribution of each climate factor in explaining the inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Running the model with only variation in maximum temperature and rainfall yielded stem growth patterns that explained almost 70% of the observed inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Our results show that maximum temperature had a strong negative effect on the stem growth by increasing respiration, reducing stomatal conductance and thus mitigating a higher transpiration demand, and – to a lesser extent – by directly reducing photosynthesis. Although stem growth was rather weakly sensitive to rain, stem growth variation responded strongly and positively to rainfall variation owing to the strong inter‐annual fluctuations in rainfall. Minimum temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration did not significantly contribute to explaining the inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Our innovative approach – combining a simulation model with historical data on tree‐ring growth and climate – allowed disentangling the effects of strongly correlated climate variables on growth through different physiological pathways. Similar studies on different species and in different forest types are needed to further improve our understanding of the sensitivity of tropical tree growth to climatic variability and change.     

Predicting dispersal of auto‐gyrating fruit in tropical trees: a case study from the Dipterocarpaceae

Seed dispersal governs the distribution of plant propagules in the landscape and hence forms the template on which density‐dependent processes act. Dispersal is therefore a vital component of many species coexistence and forest dynamics models and is of applied value in understanding forest regeneration. Research on the processes that facilitate forest regeneration and restoration is given further weight in the context of widespread loss and degradation of tropical forests, and provides impetus to improve estimates of seed dispersal for tropical forest trees. South‐East Asian lowland rainforests, which have been subject to severe degradation, are dominated by trees of the Dipterocarpaceae family which constitute over 40% of forest biomass. Dipterocarp dispersal is generally considered to be poor given their large, gyration‐dispersed fruits. However, there is wide variability in fruit size and morphology which we hypothesize mechanistically underpins dispersal potential through the lift provided to seeds mediated by the wings. We explored experimentally how the ratio of fruit wing area to mass (“inverse wing loading,” IWL) explains variation in seed dispersal kernels among 13 dipterocarp species by releasing fruit from a canopy tower. Horizontal seed dispersal distances increased with IWL, especially at high wind speeds. Seed dispersal of all species was predominantly local, with 90% of seed dispersing <10 m, although maximum dispersal distances varied widely among species. We present a generic seed dispersal model for dipterocarps based on attributes of seed morphology and provide modeled seed dispersal kernels for all dipterocarp species with IWLs of 1–50, representing 75% of species in Borneo.     

Non‐equilibrium in plant distribution models – only an issue for introduced or dispersal limited species?

Species distribution models rely on the assumption that species' distributions are at equilibrium with environmental conditions within a region – i.e. they occur in all suitable habitats. If this assumption holds, species occurrence should be predictable from measures of the environment. Introduced species may be poor candidates for distribution models due to their presumed lack of equilibrium within the landscapes they occupy, although predicting their potential distributions is often of critical importance to natural resource managers. We determined if the accuracy of species distribution models differed between 17 native and 17 introduced riparian plant species in the western United States. We also assessed if model accuracy was associated with both environmental and biological factors that can influence dispersal. We used Random Forests to model species distributions and linear regression to determine if model accuracy was associated with dispersal‐related traits. Model accuracy for introduced species was higher than that for native species. Dispersal‐related traits did not affect model accuracy or improvement, though two other traits, family affiliation and rarity on the landscape, did have an effect. Distance‐based measures of dispersal potential improved model fit equally for both native and introduced species and for species with a variety of dispersal traits, suggesting that the importance of regional propagule pressure is relatively constant across species with different dispersal opportunities. Several lines of future questioning are suggested by our results, including why introduced species may in some cases produce more accurate distribution models than native species and how species dispersal traits relate to distribution model accuracy at different spatial scales.     

Assessing spatial and environmental drivers of phylogenetic structure in Brazilian Araucaria forests

Evidence of phylogenetic conservatism in plant ecological traits has accumulated over the past few years, suggesting an interplay between the distribution of phylogenetic clades and major environmental gradients. Nonetheless, determining what environmental factors underlie the distribution of phylogenetic lineages remains a challenge because environmental factors are correlated with spatial gradients where the latter might indicate some degree of dispersal limitation in phylogenetic pools. We analyzed the phylogenetic structure of plant assemblages across the Brazilian Araucaria forests and assessed how phylogenetic structure responds to environmental and spatial gradients. We compiled data on plant occurrence in 45 plots across the Araucaria forest biome. The phylogenetic structure of the plots was characterized using phylogenetic fuzzy‐weighting followed by principal coordinates of phylogenetic structure (PCPS). We used distance‐based redundancy analysis (db‐RDA) to analyze the relationships between phylogenetic clades and environmental and spatial factors. Variation partitioning showed that the phylogenetic structure of Brazilian Araucaria forests was better explained by environment factors (altitude and annual mean temperature) than by space. Yet, spatially‐structured environmental variation explained about one‐third of total variation in the phylogenetic structure. Thus, the influence of spatial filters on the phylogenetic structure was more related to environmental gradients across the Brazilian Araucaria forest biome than to dispersal limitation of phylogenetic lineages. Furthermore, the influence of explanatory factors on the phylogenetic structure was concentrated in few nodes, the one splitting tree ferns from seed plants, and a second splitting malvids from other eurosids. Assessing the functional links between species distribution patterns and environmental gradients is not an easy task when we have to deal with large species pools. Identifying major phylogenetic gradients across an environmental and/or geographical range of interest can represent a first step towards a better understanding of general assembly processes in ecological communities.     

Temperature explains global variation in biomass among humid old‐growth forests

Aim To develop and test a simple climate‐based ecophysiological model of above‐ground biomass – an approach that can be applied directly to predicting the effects of climate change on forest carbon stores. Location Humid lowland forests world‐wide. Methods We developed a new approach to modelling the aboveground biomass of old‐growth forest (AGB_max) based on the influences of temperature on gross primary productivity (GPP) and what we call total maintenance cost (TMC), which includes autotrophic respiration as well as leaf, stem and other plant construction required to maintain biomass. We parameterized the models with measured carbon fluxes and tested them by comparing predicted AGB_max with measured AGB for another 109 old‐growth sites. Results Our models explained 57% of the variation in GPP across 95 sites and 79% of the variation in TMC across 17 sites. According to the best‐fit models, the ratio of GPP to maintenance cost per unit biomass (MCB) peaks at 16.5 °C, indicating that this is the air temperature leading to the highest possible AGB_max when temperatures are constant. Seasonal temperature variation generally reduces predicted AGB_max, and thus maritime temperate climates are predicted to have the highest AGB_max. The shift in temperatures from temperate maritime to tropical climates increases MCB more than GPP, and thus decreases AGB_max. Overall, our model explains exactly 50% of the variation in AGB among humid lowland old‐growth forests. Main conclusions Temperature plays an important role in explaining global variation in biomass among humid lowland old‐growth forests, a role that can be understood in terms of the dual effects of temperature on GPP and TMC. Our simple model captures these influences, and could be an important tool for predicting the effects of climate change on forest carbon stores.     

Landscape diversity slows the spread of an invasive forest pest species

According to the associational resistance hypothesis, diverse habitats provide better resistance to biological invasions than monocultures. Host‐plant abundance has been shown to affect the range expansion of invasive pests, but the effect of landscape diversity (i.e. density of host/non‐host patches and diversity of forest habitat patches) on invasions remains largely untested. We used boundary displacement models and boosted regression tree analyses to investigate the effects of landscape diversity on the invasion of Corsica by the maritime pine bast scale Matsucoccus feytaudi over an 18‐yr period. Taking the passive wind dispersal of the scale into account, we showed that open habitats and connectivity between host patches accelerated spread by up to 13%, whereas landscapes with high tree diversity and a high density of non‐host trees decreased scale spread by up to 14%. We suggest a new mechanism for such associational resistance to pest invasion at the landscape level, which we term ‘the pitfall effect’.     

Amazon forest carbon dynamics predicted by profiles of canopy leaf area and light environment

Tropical forest structural variation across heterogeneous landscapes may control above‐ground carbon dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that canopy structure (leaf area and light availability) – remotely estimated from LiDAR – control variation in above‐ground coarse wood production (biomass growth). Using a statistical model, these factors predicted biomass growth across tree size classes in forest near Manaus, Brazil. The same statistical model, with no parameterisation change but driven by different observed canopy structure, predicted the higher productivity of a site 500 km east. Gap fraction and a metric of vegetation vertical extent and evenness also predicted biomass gains and losses for one‐hectare plots. Despite significant site differences in canopy structure and carbon dynamics, the relation between biomass growth and light fell on a unifying curve. This supported our hypothesis, suggesting that knowledge of canopy structure can explain variation in biomass growth over tropical landscapes and improve understanding of ecosystem function.     

The evolution of egg shape in birds: selection during the incubation period

A recent broad comparative study suggested that factors during egg formation – in particular ‘flight efficiency’, which explained only 4% of the interspecific variation – are the main forces of selection on the evolution of egg shape in birds. As an alternative, we tested whether selection during the incubation period might also influence egg shape in two taxa with a wide range of egg shapes, the alcids (Alcidae) and the penguins (Spheniscidae). To do this, we analysed data from 30 species of these two distantly related but ecologically similar bird families with egg shapes ranging from nearly spherical to the most pyriform eggs found in birds. The shape of pyriform eggs, in particular, has previously proven difficult to quantify. Using three egg‐shape indices – pointedness, polar‐asymmetry and elongation – that accurately describe the shapes of all birds’ eggs, we examined the effects of egg size, chick developmental mode, clutch size and incubation site on egg shape. Linear models that include only these factors explained 70–85% of the variation in these egg‐shape indices, with incubation site consistently explaining > 60% of the variation in shape. The five species of alcids and penguins that produce the most pyriform eggs all incubate in an upright posture on flat or sloping substrates, whereas species that incubate in a cup nest have more spherical eggs. We suggest that breeding sites and incubation posture influence the ability of parents to manipulate egg position, and thus selection acting during incubation may influence egg‐shape variation across birds as a whole.     

Density and genetic relatedness increase dispersal distance in a subsocial organism

Although dispersal distance plays a major role in determining whether organisms will reach new habitats, empirical data on the environmental factors that affect dispersal distance are lacking. Population density and kin competition are two factors theorised to increase dispersal distance. Using the two‐spotted spider mite as a model species, we altered these two environmental conditions and measured the mean dispersal distance of individuals, as well as other attributes of the dispersal kernel. We find that both density and relatedness in the release patch increase dispersal distance. Relatedness, but not density, changes the shape of the dispersal kernel towards a more skewed and leptokurtic shape including a longer ‘fat‐tail’. This is the first experimental demonstration that kin competition can shape the whole distribution of dispersal distances in a population, and thus affect the geographical spread of dispersal phenotypes.     

Travelling to a former sea floor: colonization of forests by understorey plant species on land recently reclaimed from the sea

Questions: What are important forest characteristics determining colonization of forest patches by forest understorey species? Location: Planted forests on land recently reclaimed from the sea, the Netherlands. Methods: We related the distribution of forest specialist species in the understorey of 55 forests in Dutch IJsselmeer polders to the following forest characteristics: age, area, connectivity, distance to mainland (as a proxy for distance to seed source) and path density. We used species of the Fraxino‐Ulmetum association for the Netherlands as reference for species that could potentially occur in the study area. Results: Area and age of the surveyed forests explained a large part of the variation in overall species composition and species number of forest plant species. The importance of connectivity and distance to the mainland of forest habitats became apparent only at a more detailed level of dispersal groups and individual species. The importance of forest parameters differed between dispersal groups and also between individual species. After 60 years, 75% of the potential pool of wind‐dispersed species has reached the polders, whereas this was only 50% for species lacking specific adaptations to long‐distance dispersal. However, the average percentage of successful colonizing species present per forest was substantially lower, ranging from 15 to 37%. Conclusions: The data strongly suggest that the colonization process in polder forests is still in its initial phase, during which easily dispersed species dominate the vegetation. Colonization success of common species that lack adaptations to long‐distance dispersal is affected by spatial configuration of the forests, and most rare species that could potentially occur in these forests are still absent. Implications for conservation of rare species in fragmented landscapes are discussed.     

Spatiotemporal mutualistic model of mistletoes and birds

A mathematical model which incorporates the spatial dispersal and interaction dynamics of mistletoes and birds is derived and studied to gain insights of the spatial heterogeneity in abundance of mistletoes. Fickian diffusion and chemotaxis are used to model the random movement of birds and the aggregation of birds due to the attraction of mistletoes, respectively. The spread of mistletoes by birds is expressed by a dispersal operator, which is typically a convolution integral with a dispersal kernel. Two different types of kernel functions are used to study the model, one is a Dirac delta function which reflects the special case that the spread behavior is local, and the other one is a general non-negative symmetric function which describes the nonlocal spread of mistletoes. When the kernel function is taken as the Dirac delta function, the threshold condition for the existence of mistletoes is given and explored in terms of parameters. For the general non-negative symmetric kernel case, we prove the existence and stability of spatially nonhomogeneous equilibria. Numerical simulations are conducted by taking specific forms of kernel functions. Our study shows that the spatial heterogeneous patterns of mistletoes are related to the specific dispersal pattern of birds which carry mistletoe seeds.     

Dispersal of invasive forest insects via recreational firewood: a quantitative analysis

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in geographically explicit invasion models. Our primary data source was the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service database, which records camper reservations at > 2,500 locations nationwide. For > 7 million individual reservations made between 2004 and 2009 (including visits from Canada), we calculated the distance between visitor home address and campground location. We constructed an empirical dispersal kernel (i.e., the probability distribution of the travel distances) from these "origin-destination" data, and then fitted the data with various theoretical distributions. We found the data to be strongly leptokurtic (fat-tailed) and fairly well fit by the unbounded Johnson and lognormal distributions. Most campers ( approximately 53%) traveled <100 km, but approximately 10% traveled > 500 km (and as far as 5,500 km). Additionally, we examined the impact of geographic region, specific destinations (major national parks), and specific origin locations (major cities) on the shape of the dispersal kernel, and found that mixture distributions (i.e., theoretical distribution functions composed of multiple univariate distributions) may fit better in some circumstances. Although only a limited amount of all transported firewood is likely to be infested by forest insects, this still represents a considerable increase in dispersal potential beyond the insects' natural spread capabilities.     

Linking Dispersal and Immigration in Multidimensional Environments

Many problems in ecology require the estimation of rates of dispersal of individuals or propagules across physical boundaries. Such problems arise in invasion ecology, forest dynamics, and the neutral theory of biodiversity. In a forest plot, for example, one might ask what proportion of the seed rain originates from outside the plot. A recent study presented analytical approximations that relate the rate of immigration across a boundary to plot geometry and to the parameters of a dispersal kernel in one- and two-dimensional environments. In this study, we provide a more rigorous derivation of these expressions and we derive a more general expression that applies in environments of arbitrary dimension. We discuss potential applications of the one-, two-, and three-dimensional results to ecological problems.     

A Short Note on Short Dispersal Events

We study how the speed of spread for an integrodifference equation depends on the dispersal pattern of individuals. When the dispersal kernel has finite variance, the central limit theorem states that convolutions of the kernel with itself will approach a suitably chosen Gaussian distribution. Despite this fact, the speed of spread cannot be obtained from the Gaussian approximation. We give several examples and explanations for this fact. We then use the kurtosis of the kernel to derive an improved approximation that shows a very good fit to all the kernels tested. We apply the theory to one well-studied data set of dispersal of Drosophila pseudoobscura and to two one-parameter families of theoretical dispersal kernels. In particular, we find kernels that, despite having compact support, have a faster speed of spread than the Gaussian kernel.     

Post-glacial range formation of temperate forest understorey herbs – Insights from a spatio-temporally explicit modelling approach

Aim

Our knowledge of Pleistocene refugia and post-glacial recolonization routes of forest understorey plants is still very limited. The geographical ranges of these species are often rather narrow and show highly idiosyncratic, often fragmented patterns indicating either narrow and species-specific ecological tolerances or strong dispersal limitations. However, the relative roles of these factors are inherently difficult to disentangle.

Location

Central and south-eastern Europe.

Time period

17,100 BP – present.

Major taxa studied

Five understorey herbs of European beech forests: Aposeris foetida, Cardamine trifolia, Euphorbia carniolica, Hacquetia epipactis and Helleborus niger.

Methods

We used spatio-temporally explicit modelling to reconstruct the post-glacial range dynamics of the five forest understorey herbs. We varied niche requirements, demographic rates and dispersal abilities across plausible ranges and simulated the spread of species from potential Pleistocene refugia identified by phylogeographical analyses. Then we identified the parameter settings allowing for the most accurate reconstruction of their current geographical ranges.

Results

We found a largely homogenous pattern of optimal parameter settings among species. Broad ecological niches had to be combined with very low but non-zero rates of long-distance dispersal via chance events and low rates of seed dispersal over moderate distances by standard dispersal vectors. However, long-distance dispersal events, although rare, led to high variation among replicated simulation runs.

Main conclusions

Small and fragmented ranges of many forest understorey species are best explained by a combination of broad ecological niches and rare medium- and long-distance dispersal events. Stochasticity is thus an important determinant of current species ranges, explaining the idiosyncratic distribution patterns of the study species despite strong similarities in refugia, ecological tolerances and dispersal abilities.     

Relating dispersal and range expansion of California sea otters

Linking dispersal and range expansion of invasive species has long challenged theoretical and quantitative ecologists. Subtle differences in dispersal can yield large differences in geographic spread, with speeds ranging from constant to rapidly increasing. We developed a stage-structured integrodifference equation (IDE) model of the California sea otter range expansion that occurred between 1914 and 1986. The non-spatial model, a linear matrix population model, was coupled to a suite of candidate dispersal kernels to form stage-structured IDEs. Demographic and dispersal parameters were estimated independent of range expansion data. Using a single dispersal parameter, alpha, we examined how well these stage-structured IDEs related small scale demographic and dispersal processes with geographic population expansion. The parameter alpha was estimated by fitting the kernels to dispersal data and by fitting the IDE model to range expansion data. For all kernels, the alpha estimate from range expansion data fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the alpha estimate from dispersal data. The IDE models with exponentially bounded kernels predicted invasion velocities that were captured within the 95% confidence bounds on the observed northbound invasion velocity. However, the exponentially bounded kernels yielded range expansions that were in poor qualitative agreement with range expansion data. An IDE model with fat (exponentially unbounded) tails and accelerating spatial spread yielded the best qualitative match. This model explained 94% and 97% of the variation in northbound and southbound range expansions when fit to range expansion data. These otters may have been fat-tailed accelerating invaders or they may have followed a piece-wise linear spread first over kelp forests and then over sandy habitats. Further, habitat-specific dispersal data could resolve these explanations.     

The relative importance of local conditions and regional processes in structuring aquatic plant communities

1. The structure of biological communities reflects the influence of both local environmental conditions and processes such as dispersal that create patterns in species’ distribution across a region. 2. We extend explicit tests of the relative importance of local environmental conditions and regional spatial processes to aquatic plants, a group traditionally thought to be little limited by dispersal. We used partial canonical correspondence analysis and partial Mantel tests to analyse data from 98 lakes and ponds across Connecticut (northeastern United States). 3. We found that aquatic plant community structure reflects the influence of local conditions (pH, conductivity, water clarity, lake area, maximum depth) as well as regional processes. 4. Only 27% of variation in a presence/absence matrix was explained by environmental conditions and spatial processes such as dispersal. Of the total explained, 45% was related to environmental conditions and 40% to spatial processes. 5. Jaccard similarity declined with Euclidean distance between lakes, even after accounting for the increasing difference in environmental conditions, suggesting that dispersal limitation may influence community composition in the region. 6. The distribution of distances among lakes where species occurred was associated with dispersal‐related functional traits, providing additional evidence that dispersal ability varies among species in ways that affect community composition. 7. Although environmental and spatial variables explained a significant amount of variation in community structure, a substantial amount of stochasticity also affects these communities, probably associated with unpredictable colonisation and persistence of the plants.     

Mechanistic modelling of animal dispersal offers new insights into range expansion dynamics across fragmented landscapes

Understanding and predicting the dynamics of range expansion is a major topic in ecology both for invasive species extending their ranges into non‐native regions and for species shifting their natural distributions as a consequence of climate change. In an increasingly modified landscape, a key question is ‘how do populations spread across patchy landscapes?‘ Dispersal is a central process in range expansion and while there is a considerable theory on how the shape of a dispersal kernel influences the rate of spread, we know much less about the relationships between emigration, movement and settlement rules, and invasion rates. Here, we use a simple, single species individual‐based model that explicitly simulates animal dispersal to establish how density‐dependent emigration and settlement rules interact with landscape characteristics to determine spread rates. We show that depending on the dispersal behaviour and on the risk of mortality in the matrix, increasing the number of patches does not necessarily maximise the spread rate. This is due to two effects: first, individuals dispersing at the expanding front are likely to exhibit lower net‐displacement as they typically do not travel far before finding a patch; secondly, with increasing availability of high quality habitat, density‐dependence in emigration and settlement can decrease the number of emigrants and their net‐displacement. The rate of spread is ultimately determined by the balance between net travelled distance, the dispersal mortality and the number of dispersing individuals, which in turn depend on the interaction between the landscape and the species’ dispersal behaviour. These results highlight that predicting spread rates in heterogeneous landscapes is a complex task and requires better understanding of the rules that individuals use in emigration, transfer and settlement decisions.