Size‐based ecological interactions drive food web responses to climate warming

Predicting climate change impacts on animal communities requires knowledge of how physiological effects are mediated by ecological interactions. Food‐dependent growth and within‐species size variation depend on temperature and affect community dynamics through feedbacks between individual performance and population size structure. Still, we know little about how warming affects these feedbacks. Using a dynamic stage‐structured biomass model with food‐, size‐ and temperature‐dependent life history processes, we analyse how temperature affects coexistence, stability and size structure in a tri‐trophic food chain, and find that warming effects on community stability depend on ecological interactions. Predator biomass densities generally decline with warming – gradually or through collapses – depending on which consumer life stage predators feed on. Collapses occur when warming induces alternative stable states via Allee effects. This suggests that predator persistence in warmer climates may be lower than previously acknowledged and that effects of warming on food web stability largely depend on species interactions.     

Temperature‐dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature‐ and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage‐structured consumer‐resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage‐specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage‐structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size–temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size–temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size‐specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities.     

Thermal acclimation modulates the impacts of temperature and enrichment on trophic interaction strengths and population dynamics

Global change affects individual phenotypes and biotic interactions, which can have cascading effects up to the ecosystem level. However, the role of environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity in species interactions is poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge of the impacts of global change on ecosystems. Using a cladoceran–dragonfly system, we experimentally investigated the effects of thermal acclimation, acute temperature change and enrichment on predator functional response and metabolic rate. Using our experimental data, we next parameterized a population dynamics model to determine the consequences of these effects on trophic interaction strength and food‐chain stability. We found that (1) predation and metabolic rates of the dragonfly larvae increase with acute warming, (2) warm‐acclimated larvae have a higher maximum predation rate than cold‐acclimated ones, and (3) long‐term interaction strength increases with enrichment but decreases with both acclimation and acute temperatures. Overall, our experimental results show that thermal acclimation can buffer negative impacts of environmental change on predators and increase food‐web stability and persistence. We conclude that the effect of acclimation and, more generally, phenotypic plasticity on trophic interactions should not be overlooked if we aim to understand the effects of climate change and enrichment on species interaction strength and food‐web stability.     

Towards a mechanistic understanding of temperature and enrichment effects on species interaction strength,omnivory and food‐web structure

Revealing the links between species functional traits, interaction strength and food‐web structure is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the relationships between food‐web diversity and stability in a rapidly changing world. However, little is known about the interactive effects of environmental perturbations on individual species, trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning. Here, we combined modelling and laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of warming and enrichment on a terrestrial tritrophic system. We found that the food‐web structure is highly variable and switches between exploitative competition and omnivory depending on the effects of temperature and enrichment on foraging behaviour and species interaction strength. Our model contributes to identifying the mechanisms that explain how environmental effects cascade through the food web and influence its topology. We conclude that considering environmental factors and flexible food‐web structure is crucial to improve our ability to predict the impacts of global changes on ecosystem diversity and stability.     

Light and warming drive forest understorey community development in different environments

Plant community composition and functional traits respond to chronic drivers such as climate change and nitrogen (N) deposition. In contrast, pulse disturbances from ecosystem management can additionally change resources and conditions. Community responses to combined environmental changes may further depend on land‐use legacies. Disentangling the relative importance of these global change drivers is necessary to improve predictions of future plant communities. We performed a multifactor global change experiment to disentangle drivers of herbaceous plant community trajectories in a temperate deciduous forest. Communities of five species, assembled from a pool of 15 forest herb species with varying ecological strategies, were grown in 384 mesocosms on soils from ancient forest (forested at least since 1850) and postagricultural forest (forested since 1950) collected across Europe. Mesocosms were exposed to two‐level full‐factorial treatments of warming, light addition (representing changing forest management) and N enrichment. We measured plant height, specific leaf area (SLA) and species cover over the course of three growing seasons. Increasing light availability followed by warming reordered the species towards a taller herb community, with limited effects of N enrichment or the forest land‐use history. Two‐way interactions between treatments and incorporating intraspecific trait variation (ITV) did not yield additional inference on community height change. Contrastingly, community SLA differed when considering ITV along with species reordering, which highlights ITV’s importance for understanding leaf morphology responses to nutrient enrichment in dark conditions. Contrary to our expectations, we found limited evidence of land‐use legacies affecting community responses to environmental changes, perhaps because dispersal limitation was removed in the experimental design. These findings can improve predictions of community functional trait responses to global changes by acknowledging ITV, and subtle changes in light availability. Adaptive forest management to impending global change could benefit the restoration and conservation of understorey plant communities by reducing the light availability.     

Responses of zooplankton body size and community trophic structure to temperature change in a subtropical reservoir

Understanding the effects of global warming on trait variation and trophic structure is a crucial challenge in the 21st century. However, there is a lack of general patterns that can be used to predict trait variation and community trophic structure under the ongoing environmental change. We investigated the responses of body size and community trophic structure of zooplankton to climate related factors (e.g., temperature). Isotopic niche breadth was applied to investigate the community trophic structure across a 1‐year study from a subtropical reservoir (Tingxi Reservoir) in southeastern China. Body size and community isotopic niche breadth of zooplankton were larger during water mixing than stratification periods and correlated significantly with water temperature change along the time series. The contributions of intra‐ and intertaxonomic components to body size and community trophic structure variation showed significant relationships with the temperature change going from the mixing to stratification periods. Water temperature imposed direct effect on body size, while direct and indirect effect on the community trophic structure of zooplankton occurred through trophic redundancy along time series. Water temperature and community properties (e.g., body size, trophic redundancy, or trophic interaction) showed complex interactions and integrated to influence community trophic structure of zooplankton. Our results can expand the knowledge of how elevated temperature will alter individual trait and community trophic structure under future climate change.     

Effects of experimental warming on biodiversity depend on ecosystem type and local species composition

Climatic warming is a primary driver of change in ecosystems worldwide. Here, we synthesize responses of species richness and evenness from 187 experimental warming studies in a quantitative meta‐analysis. We asked 1) whether effects of warming on diversity were detectable and consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, 2) if effects on diversity correlated with intensity, duration, and experimental unit size of temperature change manipulations, and 3) whether these experimental effects on diversity interacted with ecosystem types. Using multilevel mixed linear models and model averaging, we also tested the relative importance of variables that described uncontrolled environmental variation and attributes of experimental units. Overall, experimental warming reduced richness across ecosystems (mean log‐response ratio = –0.091, 95% bootstrapped CI: –0.13, –0.05) representing an 8.9% decline relative to ambient temperature treatments. Richness did not change in response to warming in freshwater systems, but was more strongly negative in terrestrial (–11.8%) and marine (–10.5%) experiments. In contrast, warming impacts on evenness were neutral overall and in aquatic systems, but weakly negative on land (7.6%). Intensity and duration of experimental warming did not explain variation in diversity responses, but negative effects on richness were stronger in smaller experimental units, particularly in marine systems. Model‐averaged parameter estimation confirmed these main effects while accounting for variation in latitude, ambient temperature at the sites of manipulations, venue (field versus lab), community trophic type, and whether experiments were open or closed to colonization. These analyses synthesize extensive experimental evidence showing declines in local richness with increased temperature, particularly in terrestrial and marine communities. However, the more variable effects of warming on evenness were better explained by the random effect of site identity, suggesting that effects on species’ relative abundances were contingent on local species composition. Synthesis A global research priority is to understand the consequences of climate change for biodiversity. A growing number of experimental studies have manipulated climatic drivers, in particular changes in temperature, in local communities. In the first quantitative meta‐analysis of community‐level studies across freshwater, marine and terrestrial experiments, species richness declined consistently with experimental warming. This effect was insensitive to warming intensity, duration, and multiple environmental and procedural covariates. However, evenness responses were weakly negative only in terrestrial systems and more variable across ecosystem types. Linear mixed model analyses revealed that the identity of local sites explained nearly 50% of variance in evenness effect sizes, compared to only 10% for richness. This result provides evidence that local species composition strongly constrains changes in relative species abundances in response to warming.     

Interactive effects of warming,eutrophication and size structure: impacts on biodiversity and food‐web structure

Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size‐structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: Warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: Communities of similarly sized species such as parasitoid–host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size‐structured predator–prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Nonrandom extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size‐structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors.     

Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world

The majority of studies on environmental change focus on the response of single species and neglect fundamental biotic interactions, such as mutualism, competition, predation, and parasitism, which complicate patterns of species persistence. Under global warming, disruption of community interactions can arise when species differ in their sensitivity to rising temperature, leading to mismatched phenologies and/or dispersal patterns. To study species persistence under global climate change, it is critical to consider the ecology and evolution of multispecies interactions; however, the sheer number of potential interactions makes a full study of all interactions unfeasible. One mechanistic approach to solving the problem of complicated community context to global change is to (i) define strategy groups of species based on life‐history traits, trophic position, or location in the ecosystem, (ii) identify species involved in key interactions within these groups, and (iii) determine from the interactions of these key species which traits to study in order to understand the response to global warming. We review the importance of multispecies interactions looking at two trait categories: thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate and associated life‐history traits and dispersal traits of species. A survey of published literature shows pronounced and consistent differences among trophic groups in thermal sensitivity of life‐history traits and in dispersal distances. Our approach increases the feasibility of unraveling such a large and diverse set of community interactions, with the ultimate goal of improving our understanding of community responses to global warming.     

Linking community size structure and ecosystem functioning using metabolic theory

Understanding how biogeochemical cycles relate to the structure of ecological communities is a central research question in ecology. Here we approach this problem by focusing on body size, which is an easily measured species trait that has a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of community structure and ecosystem functioning. We test the predictions of a model derived from metabolic theory using data on ecosystem metabolism and community size structure. These data were collected as part of an aquatic mesocosm experiment that was designed to simulate future environmental warming. Our analyses demonstrate significant linkages between community size structure and ecosystem functioning, and the effects of warming on these links. Specifically, we show that carbon fluxes were significantly influenced by seasonal variation in temperature, and yielded activation energies remarkably similar to those predicted based on the temperature dependencies of individual-level photosynthesis and respiration. We also show that community size structure significantly influenced fluxes of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production, particularly at the annual time-scale. Assessing size structure and the factors that control it, both empirically and theoretically, therefore promises to aid in understanding links between individual organisms and biogeochemical cycles, and in predicting the responses of key ecosystem functions to future environmental change.     

Traits explain community disassembly and trophic contraction following experimental environmental change

Many ecosystems are currently undergoing dramatic changes in biodiversity due to habitat loss and climate change. Responses to global change at the community level are poorly understood, as are the impacts of community disassembly on ecosystem‐level processes. Uncertainties remain regarding the patterns of extirpation and persistence under single vs. multiple forms of environmental change. Here, we use a trait‐based and food web approach to examine the effects of experimentally changing moisture, temperature and habitat ‘openness’ on a functionally important group of microarthropods associated with a boreal forest floor bryosphere (detrital moss) system. Overall, the outcome of community disassembly was mediated by the correlation between our environmental factors and species traits, particularly body size. Minor increases in summer temperatures maintained greater species richness, whereas drought stress had a significant negative effect on community‐level abundance and richness. These effects were reflected in modifications to the community‐wide body‐size spectra. Habitat openness alleviated biodiversity loss in the larger‐bodied species of the most abundant taxonomic group, but did not fully mitigate the effects of drought. The most striking result of this experiment was an overall contraction of the food web among persistent species under drought stress (i.e. those not extirpated by environmental change). These results suggest that major changes in boreal microarthropod community structure are likely to occur in response to common forms of global change. Moreover, the contraction in trophic structure even amongst tolerant species suggests that ecosystem function within the bryosphere can be altered by environmental change.     

Competition, predation and species responses to environmental change

Despite much effort over the past decade on the ecological consequences of global warming, ecologists still have little understanding of the importance of interspecific interactions in species responses to environmental change. Models predict that predation should mitigate species responses to environmental change, and that interspecific competition should aggravate species responses to environmental change. To test this prediction, we studied how predation and competition affected the responses of two ciliates, Colpidium striatum and Paramecium tetraurelia , to temperature change in laboratory microcosms. We found that neither predation nor competition altered the responses of Colpidium striatum to temperature change, and that competition but not predation altered the responses of Paramecium tetraurelia to temperature change. Asymmetric interactions and temperature-dependent interactions may have contributed to the disparity between model predictions and experimental results. Our results suggest that models ignoring inherent complexities in ecological communities may be inadequate in forecasting species responses to environmental change.     

Temperature indirectly affects benthic microalgal diversity by altering effects of top–down but not bottom–up control

Understanding the ecological mechanisms that underlie species diversity decline in response to environmental change has become an urgent objective in current ecological research. Not only direct (lethal) effects on single species but also indirect effects altering biotic interactions between species within and across trophic levels comprise the driving force of ecosystem change. In an experimental marine benthic microalgae–grazer system we tested for indirect effects of moderate temperature change on algal diversity by manipulation of temperature, nutrient supply and grazer density. In our model system warming did not exert indirect effects on microalgal diversity via effects on resource competition. However, moderate warming strengthened consumer control and thereby indirectly affected algal community structure which ultimately resulted in decreased diversity. Only in low temperature and low nutrient regimes did the antagonizing mechanisms of bottom–up and top–down regulation establish a balancing effect on algal diversity within 29 days (corresponding to 15–29 algae generations). Effects of thermal habitat change did not appear before 9–18 algae generations, which points to the relevance of longer‐term experiments and ecological monitoring in order to separate transient biotic responses and subtle changes of community dynamics in consequence to global change.     

Phenology in a warming world: differences between native and non‐native plant species

Phenology is a harbinger of climate change, with many species advancing flowering in response to rising temperatures. However, there is tremendous variation among species in phenological response to warming, and any phenological differences between native and non‐native species may influence invasion outcomes under global warming. We simulated global warming in the field and found that non‐native species flowered earlier and were more phenologically plastic to temperature than natives, which did not accelerate flowering in response to warming. Non‐native species' flowering also became more synchronous with other community members under warming. Earlier flowering was associated with greater geographic spread of non‐native species, implicating phenology as a potential trait associated with the successful establishment of non‐native species across large geographic regions. Such phenological differences in both timing and plasticity between native and non‐natives are hypothesised to promote invasion success and population persistence, potentially benefiting non‐native over native species under climate change.     

土壤微生物对气候变暖和大气N沉降的响应

气候变暖和大气N沉降是近一、二十年来人们非常关注的全球变化现象,它们所带来的一系列生态问题已成为全球变化研究的重要议题。它们不仅影响地上植被生长和群落组成,还直接或间接地影响土壤微生物过程,而土壤微生物对此做出的响应正是生态系统反馈过程中非常重要的环节。该文分别从气候变化对土壤微生物的影响(土壤微生物量、微生物活动和微生物群落结构)和土壤微生物对气候变化的响应(凋落物分解、养分利用与循环以及养分的固持与流失)两个角度,综述近期土壤微生物对气候变暖和大气N沉降响应与适应的研究进展。气候变暖和大气N沉降对土壤微生物的影响更多地反映在微生物群落的结构和功能上,而土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构的变化又会通过改变凋落物分解、养分利用和C、N循环等重要的土壤生态系统功能和过程做出响应,形成正向或负向反馈,加强或削弱气候变化给整个陆地生态系统带来的影响。然而,到目前为止土壤微生物的响应对陆地生态系统产生的最终结果仍是未决的关键性问题。     

Warming will affect phytoplankton differently: evidence through a mechanistic approach

Although the consequences of global warming in aquatic ecosystems are only beginning to be revealed, a key to forecasting the impact on aquatic communities is an understanding of individual species' vulnerability to increased temperature. Despite their microscopic size, phytoplankton support about half of the global primary production, drive essential biogeochemical cycles and represent the basis of the aquatic food web. At present, it is known that phytoplankton are important targets and, consequently, harbingers of climate change in aquatic systems. Therefore, investigating the capacity of phytoplankton to adapt to the predicted warming has become a relevant issue. However, considering the polyphyletic complexity of the phytoplankton community, different responses to increased temperature are expected. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on 12 species of phytoplankton isolated from a variety of environments by using a mechanistic approach able to assess evolutionary adaptation (the so-called ratchet technique). We found different degrees of tolerance to temperature rises and an interspecific capacity for genetic adaptation. The thermal resistance level reached by each species is discussed in relation to their respective original habitats. Our study additionally provides evidence on the most resistant phytoplankton groups in a future warming scenario.     

Warming reduces the effects of enrichment on stability and functioning across levels of organisation in an aquatic microbial ecosystem

Warming and nutrient enrichment are major environmental factors shaping ecological dynamics. However, cross‐scale investigation of their combined effects by linking theory and experiments is lacking. We collected data from aquatic microbial ecosystems investigating the interactive effects of warming (constant and rising temperatures) and enrichment across levels of organisation and contrasted them with community models based on metabolic theory. We found high agreement between our observations and theoretical predictions: we observed in many cases the predicted antagonistic effects of high temperature and high enrichment across levels of organisation. Temporal stability of total biomass decreased with warming but did not differ across enrichment levels. Constant and rising temperature treatments with identical mean temperature did not show qualitative differences. Overall, we conclude that model and empirical results are in broad agreement due to robustness of the effects of temperature and enrichment, that the mitigating effects of temperature on effects of enrichment may be common, and that models based on metabolic theory provide qualitatively robust predictions of the combined ecological effects of enrichment and temperature.     

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well‐studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate‐related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat‐sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade‐offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change.     

Short- and long-term conditioning of a temperate marine diatom community to acidification and warming

Ocean acidification and greenhouse warming will interactively influence competitive success of key phytoplankton groups such as diatoms, but how long-term responses to global change will affect community structure is unknown. We incubated a mixed natural diatom community from coastal New Zealand waters in a short-term (two-week) incubation experiment using a factorial matrix of warming and/or elevated pCO₂ and measured effects on community structure. We then isolated the dominant diatoms in clonal cultures and conditioned them for 1 year under the same temperature and pCO₂ conditions from which they were isolated, in order to allow for extended selection or acclimation by these abiotic environmental change factors in the absence of interspecific interactions. These conditioned isolates were then recombined into ‘artificial’ communities modelled after the original natural assemblage and allowed to compete under conditions identical to those in the short-term natural community experiment. In general, the resulting structure of both the unconditioned natural community and conditioned ‘artificial’ community experiments was similar, despite differences such as the loss of two species in the latter. pCO₂ and temperature had both individual and interactive effects on community structure, but temperature was more influential, as warming significantly reduced species richness. In this case, our short-term manipulative experiment with a mixed natural assemblage spanning weeks served as a reasonable proxy to predict the effects of global change forcing on diatom community structure after the component species were conditioned in isolation over an extended timescale. Future studies will be required to assess whether or not this is also the case for other types of algal communities from other marine regimes.     

Evaluating within‐population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal‐limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal‐limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal‐limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5‐year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size‐specific fecundity, potentially reducing population‐level persistence. To better understand within‐population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph‐specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.