Species‐specific responses to combined water stress and increasing temperatures in two bee‐pollinated congeners (Echium,Boraginaceae)

1. Water stress and increasing temperatures are two main constraints faced by plants in the context of climate change. These constraints affect plant physiology and morphology, including phenology, floral traits, and nectar rewards, thus altering plant–pollinator interactions.
2. We compared the abiotic stress responses of two bee‐pollinated Boraginaceae species, Echium plantagineum, an annual, and Echium vulgare, a biennial. Plants were grown for 5 weeks during their flowering period under two watering regimes (well‐watered and water‐stressed) and three temperature regimes (21, 24, 27°C).
3. We measured physiological traits linked to photosynthesis (chlorophyll content, stomatal conductance, and water use efficiency), and vegetative (leaf number and growth rate) and floral (e.g., flower number, phenology, floral morphology, and nectar production) traits.
4. The physiological and morphological traits of both species were affected by the water and temperature stresses, although the effects were greater for the annual species. Both stresses negatively affected floral traits, accelerating flower phenology, decreasing flower size, and, for the annual species, decreasing nectar rewards. In both species, the number of flowers was reduced by 22%–45% under water stress, limiting the total amount of floral rewards.
5. Under water stress and increasing temperatures, which mimic the effects of climate change, floral traits and resources of bee‐pollinated species are affected and can lead to disruptions of pollination and reproductive success.

     

Drought reshuffles plant phenology and reduces the foraging benefit of green‐wave surfing for a migratory ungulate

To increase resource gain, many herbivores pace their migration with the flush of nutritious plant green‐up that progresses across the landscape (termed “green‐wave surfing”). Despite concerns about the effects of climate change on migratory species and the critical role of plant phenology in mediating the ability of ungulates to surf, little is known about how drought shapes the green wave and influences the foraging benefits of migration. With a 19 year dataset on drought and plant phenology across 99 unique migratory routes of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in western Wyoming, United States, we show that drought shortened the duration of spring green‐up by approximately twofold (2.5 weeks) and resulted in less sequential green‐up along migratory routes. We investigated the possibility that some routes were buffered from the effects of drought (i.e., routes that maintained long green‐up duration irrespective of drought intensity). We found no evidence of drought‐buffered routes. Instead, routes with the longest green‐up in non‐drought years also were the most affected by drought. Despite phenological changes along the migratory route, mule deer closely followed drought‐altered green waves during migration. Migrating deer did not experience a trophic mismatch with the green wave during drought. Instead, the shorter window of green‐up caused by drought reduced the opportunity to accumulate forage resources during rapid spring migrations. Our work highlights the synchronization of phenological events as an important mechanism by which climate change can negatively affect migratory species by reducing the temporal availability of key food resources. For migratory herbivores, climate change poses a new and growing threat by altering resource phenology and diminishing the foraging benefit of migration.     

Effects of climate and demography on reproductive phenology of a harvested marine fish population

Shifts in phenology are a well‐documented ecological response to changes in climate, which may or may not be adaptive for a species depending on the climate sensitivity of other ecosystem processes. Furthermore, phenology may be affected by factors in addition to climate, which may accentuate or dampen climate‐driven phenological responses. In this study, we investigate how climate and population demographic structure jointly affect spawning phenology of a fish species of major commercial importance: walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). We use 32 years of data from ichthyoplankton surveys to reconstruct timing of pollock reproduction in the Gulf of Alaska and find that the mean date of spawning has varied by over 3 weeks throughout the last >3 decades. Climate clearly drives variation in spawn timing, with warmer temperatures leading to an earlier and more protracted spawning period, consistent with expectations of advanced spring phenology under warming. However, the effects of temperature were nonlinear, such that additional warming above a threshold value had no additional effect on phenology. Population demographics were equally as important as temperature: An older and more age‐diverse spawning stock tended to spawn earlier and over a longer duration than a younger stock. Our models suggest that demographic shifts associated with sustainable harvest rates could shift the mean spawning date 7 days later and shorten the spawning season by 9 days relative to an unfished population, independent of thermal conditions. Projections under climate change suggest that spawn timing will become more stable for walleye pollock in the future, but it is unknown what the consequences of this stabilization will be for the synchrony of first‐feeding larvae with production of zooplankton prey in spring. With ongoing warming in the world’s oceans, knowledge of the mechanisms underlying reproductive phenology can improve our ability to monitor and manage species under changing climate conditions.     

Eco‐evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.     

Biotic interactions influence the projected distribution of a specialist mammal under climate change

Aim

To measure the effects of including biotic interactions on climate‐based species distribution models (SDMs) used to predict distribution shifts under climate change. We evaluated the performance of distribution models for an endangered marsupial, the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica), comparing models that used only climate variables with models that also took into account biotic interactions.

Location

North‐east Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We developed separate climate‐based distribution models for the northern bettong, its two main resources and a competitor species. We then constructed models for the northern bettong by including climate suitability estimates for the resources and competitor as additional predictor variables to make climate + resource and climate + resource + competition models. We projected these models onto seven future climate scenarios and compared predictions of northern bettong distribution made by these differently structured models, using a ‘global’ metric, the I similarity statistic, to measure overlap in distribution and a ‘local’ metric to identify where predictions differed significantly.

Results

Inclusion of food resource biotic interactions improved model performance. Over moderate climate changes, up to 3.0 °C of warming, the climate‐only model for the northern bettong gave similar predictions of distribution to the more complex models including interactions, with differences only at the margins of predicted distributions. For climate changes beyond 3.0 °C, model predictions diverged significantly. The interactive model predicted less contraction of distribution than the simpler climate‐only model.

Main conclusions

Distribution models that account for interactions with other species, in particular direct resources, improve model predictions in the present‐day climate. For larger climate changes, shifts in distribution of interacting species cause predictions of interactive models to diverge from climate‐only models. Incorporating interactions with other species in SDMs may be needed for long‐term prediction of changes in distribution of species under climate change, particularly for specialized species strongly dependent on a small number of biotic interactions.     

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi‐brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi‐brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy‐wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi‐brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a “sliding window” approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species’ phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals’ breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi‐brooded species may have been underestimated.     

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.     

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.     

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within‐population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13‐year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change.     

Bud phenology and growth are subject to divergent selection across a latitudinal gradient in Populus angustifolia and impact adaptation across the distributional range and associated arthropods

Temperate forest tree species that span large geographical areas and climatic gradients often have high levels of genetic variation. Such species are ideal for testing how neutral demographic factors and climate‐driven selection structure genetic variation within species, and how this genetic variation can affect ecological communities. Here, we quantified genetic variation in vegetative phenology and growth traits in narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia, using three common gardens planted with genotypes originating from source populations spanning the species' range along the Rocky Mountains of North America (ca. 1700 km). We present three main findings. First, we found strong evidence of divergent selection (Q_ST > F_ST) on fall phenology (bud set) with adaptive consequences for frost avoidance. We also found evidence for selection on bud flush duration, tree height, and basal diameter, resulting in population differentiation. Second, we found strong associations with climate variables that were strongly correlated with latitude of origin. More strongly differentiated traits also showed stronger climate correlations, which emphasizes the role that climate has played in divergent selection throughout the range. We found population × garden interaction effects; for some traits, this accounted for more of the variance than either factor alone. Tree height was influenced by the difference in climate of the source and garden locations and declined with increasing transfer distance. Third, growth traits were correlated with dependent arthropod community diversity metrics. Synthesis. Overall, we conclude that climate has influenced genetic variation and structure in phenology and growth traits and leads to local adaptation in P. angustifolia, which can then impact dependent arthropod species. Importantly, relocation of genotypes far northward or southward often resulted in poor growth, likely due to a phenological mismatch with photoperiod, the proximate cue for fall growth cessation. Genotypes moved too far southward suffer from early growth cessation, whereas those moved too far northward are prone to fall frost and winter dieback. In the face of current and forecasted climate change, habitat restoration, forestry, and tree breeding efforts should utilize these findings to better match latitudinal and climatic source environments with management locations for optimal future outcomes.     

Nesting success of wood‐cavity‐nesting bees declines with increasing time since wildfire

Bees require distinct foraging and nesting resources to occur in close proximity. However, spatial and temporal patterns in the availability and quantity of these resources can be affected by disturbances like wildfire. The potential for spatial or temporal separation of foraging and nesting resources is of particular concern for solitary wood‐cavity‐nesting bees as they are central‐place, short‐distance foragers once they have established their nest. Often the importance of nesting resources for bees have been tested by sampling foraging bees as a proxy, and nesting bees have rarely been studied in a community context, particularly postdisturbance. We tested how wood‐cavity‐nesting bee species richness, nesting success, and nesting and floral resources varied across gradients of wildfire severity and time‐since‐burn. We sampled nesting bees via nesting boxes within four wildfires in southwest Montana, USA, using a space‐for‐time substitution chronosequence approach spanning 3–25 years postburn and including an unburned control. We found that bee nesting success and species richness declined with increasing time postburn, with a complete lack of successful bee nesting in unburned areas. Nesting and floral resources were highly variable across both burn severity and time‐since‐burn, yet generally did not have strong effects on nesting success. Our results together suggest that burned areas may provide important habitat for wood‐cavity‐nesting bees in this system. Given ongoing fire regime shifts as well as other threats facing wild bee communities, this work helps provide essential information necessary for the management and conservation of wood‐cavity‐nesting bees.     

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate‐driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among‐population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space‐temperature and time‐temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature‐mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.     

Bumble bee colony dynamics: quantifying the importance of land use and floral resources for colony growth and queen production

Bumble bee (Bombus) species are ecologically and economically important pollinators, and many species are in decline. In this article, we develop a mechanistic model to analyse growth trajectories of Bombus vosnesenskii colonies in relation to floral resources and land use. Queen production increased with floral resources and was higher in semi‐natural areas than on conventional farms. However, the most important parameter for queen production was the colony growth rate per flower, as opposed to the average number of available flowers. This result indicates the importance of understanding mechanisms of colony growth, in order to predict queen production and enhance bumble bee population viability. Our work highlights the importance of interpreting bumble bee conservation efforts in the context of overall population dynamics and provides a framework for doing so.     

Direct and indirect effects of episodic frost on plant growth and reproduction in subalpine wildflowers

Frost is an important episodic event that damages plant tissues through the formation of ice crystals at or below freezing temperatures. In montane regions, where climate change is expected to cause earlier snow melt but may not change the last frost‐free day of the year, plants that bud earlier might be directly impacted by frost through damage to flower buds and reproductive structures. However, the indirect effects of frost mediated through changes in plant–pollinator interactions have rarely been explored. We examined the direct and pollinator‐mediated indirect effects of frost on three wildflower species in southwestern Colorado, USA, Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae), Erigeron speciosus (Asteraceae), and Polemonium foliosissimum (Polemoniaceae), by simulating moderate (?1 to ?5°C) frost events in early spring in plants in situ. Subsequently, we measured plant growth, and upon flowering measured flower morphology and phenology. Throughout the flowering season, we monitored pollinator visitation and collected seeds to measure plant reproduction. We found that frost had species‐specific direct and indirect effects. Frost had direct effects on two of the three species. Frost significantly reduced flower size, total flowers produced, and seed production of Erigeron. Furthermore, frost reduced aboveground plant survival and seed production for Polemonium. However, we found no direct effects of frost on Delphinium. When we considered the indirect impacts of frost mediated through changes in pollinator visitation, one species, Erigeron, incurred indirect, negative effects of frost on plant reproduction through changes in floral traits and pollinator visitation, along with direct effects. Overall, we found that flowering plants exhibited species‐specific direct and pollinator‐mediated indirect responses to frost, thus suggesting that frost may play an important role in affecting plant communities under climate change.     

Reduced abundance and earlier collection of bumble bee workers under intensive cultivation of a mass‐flowering prairie crop

One of the most commonly seeded crops in Canada is canola, a cultivar of oilseed rape (Brassica napus). As a mass‐flowering crop grown intensively throughout the Canadian Prairies, canola has the potential to influence pollinator success across tens of thousands of square kilometers of cropland. Bumble bees (Bombus sp.) are efficient pollinators of many types of native and crop plants. We measured the influence of this mass‐flowering crop on the abundance and phenology of bumble bees, and on another species of social bee (a sweat bee; Halictus rubicundus), by continuously deploying traps at different levels of canola cultivation intensity, spanning the start and end of canola bloom. Queen bumble bees were more abundant in areas with more canola cover, indicating that this crop is attractive to queens. However, bumble bee workers were significantly fewer in these locations later in the season, suggesting reduced colony success. The median collection dates of workers of three bumble bee species were earlier near canola fields, suggesting a dynamic response of colonies to the increased floral resources. Different species experienced this shift to different extents. The sweat bee was not affected by canola cultivation intensity. Our findings suggest that mass‐flowering crops such as canola are attractive to bumble bee queens and therefore may lead to higher rates of colony establishment, but also that colonies established near this crop may be less successful. We propose that the effect on bumble bees can be mitigated by spacing the crop more evenly with respect to alternate floral resources.     

Foraging strategies of generalist and specialist Old World nectar bats in response to temporally variable floral resources

Foraging theory predicts that generalist foragers should switch resources more readily, while specialist foragers should remain constant to preferred food resources. Plant‐pollinator interactions provide a convenient system to test such predictions because floral resources are often temporally patchy, thus requiring long‐lived pollinators to switch resources seasonally. Furthermore, flowering phenologies range from ‘steady‐state’ (low‐rewarding but highly reliable) to ‘big‐bang’ (high‐rewarding but ephemeral) plant species. We assessed how nectarivorous Old World bats respond to this temporally variable floral environment by examining their diets throughout the year. Over 15 months of fieldwork in southern Thailand, we simultaneously: (1) recorded the flowering phenologies of six bat‐pollinated plant taxa; and (2) assessed the diets of seven common flower‐visiting bat species. As predicted, the generalist nectarivore (Eonycteris spelaea) frequently switched diets and utilized both big‐bang and steady‐state resources, while the specialist nectarivores (Macroglossus minimus and M. sobrinus) foraged on one or two steady‐state plant species year‐round. Our results suggest that larger and faster bat species are able to fly longer distances in search of big‐bang resources, while smaller bat species rely on highly predictable food resources. This study supports the theory that generalist foragers have flexible diets, while specialist species restrict foraging to preferred floral resources even when other floral resources are more abundant. Moreover, these findings demonstrate how plant flowering phenology and pollinator diet breadth can shape the frequency and constancy of pollinator visits; we further discuss how such interactions can influence the potential extent of gene flow within a patchy floral environment.     

Nectar robbers influence the trait–fitness relationship of Primula secundiflora

• The trait–fitness relationship influences the strength and direction of floral evolution. To fully understand and predict the evolutionary trajectories of floral traits, it is critical to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of floral traits on plant fitness in natural populations.
• We experimentally quantified phenotypic selection on floral traits through female fitness and estimated the casual effects of nectar robbing with different nectar robbing intensities on trait–fitness relationships in both the L‐ (long‐style and short‐anther phenotype) and S‐morph (short‐style and long‐anther phenotype) flowers among Primula secundiflora populations.
• A larger number of flowers and wider corolla tubes had both direct and indirect positive effects on female fitness in the P. secundiflora populations. The indirect effects of these two traits on female fitness were mediated by nectar robbers. The indirect effect of the number of flowers on female fitness increased with increasing nectar robbing intensity. In most populations, the direct and/or indirect effects of floral traits on female fitness were stronger in the S‐morph flowers than in the L‐morph flowers. In addition, nectar robbers had a direct positive effect on female fitness, but this effect varied between the L‐ and S‐morph flowers.
• These results show the potential role of nectar robbers in influencing the trait–fitness relationships in this primrose species.

     

Reproductive phenology of two Mimusops species in relation to climate,tree diameter and canopy position in Benin (West Africa)

Assessing species phenology provides useful understanding about their autecology, to contribute to management strategies. We monitored reproductive phenology of Mimusops andongensis and Mimusops kummel, and its relationship with climate, tree diameter and canopy position. We sampled trees in six diameter classes and noted their canopy position. For both species flowering began in the dry season through to the rainy season, but peaked in the dry season, whilst fruiting occurred in the rainy season and peaked during the most humid period. Flowering was positively correlated with temperature. Conversely, fruiting was negatively correlated with temperature and positively with rainfall, only in the Guineo‐Sudanian zone. For M. andongensis, flowering and fruiting prevalences were positively linked to stem diameter, while only flowering was significantly related to canopy position. For M. kummel, the relationship with stem diameter was significant for flowering prevalence only and in the Guineo‐Sudanian zone. Results suggest that phylogenetic membership is an important factor restricting Mimusops species phenology. Flowering and fruiting of both species are influenced by climate, and consequently climate change might shift their phenological patterns. Long‐term investigations, considering flowering and fruiting abortion, will help to better understand the species phenology and perhaps predict demographic dynamics.     

Experimental warming alters spring phenology of certain plant functional groups in an early successional forest community

Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life‐history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2 °C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14–18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost 3 weeks of increased community‐level leaf area index, indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green‐up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature‐based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with nontemperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.     

Adult male birds advance spring migratory phenology faster than females and juveniles across North America

Advances in spring migratory phenology comprise some of the most well-documented evidence for the impacts of climate change on birds. Nevertheless, surprisingly little research has investigated whether birds are shifting their migratory phenology equally across sex and age classes—a question critical to understanding the potential for trophic mismatch. We used 60 years of bird banding data across North America—comprising over 4 million captures in total—to investigate both spring and fall migratory phenology for a total of 98 bird species across sex and age classes, with the exact numbers of species for each analysis depending on season-specific data availability. Consistent with protandry, in spring (n = 89 species), adult males were the first to arrive and immature females were the last to arrive. In fall (n = 98), there was little difference between sexes, but adults tended to depart earlier than juveniles. Over 60 years, adult males advanced their phenology the fastest (−0.84 days per decade, 95 CrI = −1.22 to −0.47, n = 36), while adult and immature females advanced at a slower pace, causing the gap in male and female arrival times to widen over time. In the fall, there was no overall trend in phenology by age or sex (n = 57), driven in part by high interspecific variation related to breeding and molt strategies. Our results indicate consistent and predictable age- and sex-based differences in the rates at which species' springtime phenology is shifting. The growing gap between male and female migratory arrival indicates sex-based plasticity in adaptation to climate change that has strong potential to negatively impact current and future population trends.