Long-term demographic surveys reveal a consistent relationship between average occupancy and abundance within local populations of a butterfly metapopulation

Species distribution models are the tool of choice for large-scale population monitoring, environmental association studies and predictions of range shifts under future environmental conditions. Available data and familiarity of the tools rather than the underlying population dynamics often dictate the choice of specific method – especially for the case of presence–absence data. Yet, for predictive purposes, the relationship between occupancy and abundance embodied in the models should reflect the actual population dynamics of the modelled species. To understand the relationship of occupancy and abundance in a heterogeneous landscape at the scale of local populations, we built a spatio-temporal regression model of populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia in a Baltic Sea archipelago. Our data comprised nineteen years of habitat surveys and snapshot data of land use in the region. We used variance partitioning to quantify relative contributions of land use, habitat quality and metapopulation covariates. The model revealed a consistent and positive, but noisy relationship between average occupancy and mean abundance in local populations. Patterns of abundance were highly variable across years, with large uncorrelated random variation and strong local population stochasticity. In contrast, the spatio-temporal random effect, habitat quality, population connectivity and patch size explained variation in occupancy, vindicating metapopulation theory as the basis for modelling occupancy patterns in fragmented landscapes. Previous abundance was an important predictor in the occupancy model, which points to a spillover of abundance into occupancy dynamics. While occupancy models can successfully model large-scale population structure and average occupancy, extinction probability estimates for local populations derived from occupancy-only models are overconfident, as extinction risk is dependent on actual, not average, abundance.     

Loss of nesting sites is not a primary factor limiting northern Chimney Swift populations

Aerially-foraging insectivorous bird populations have been declining for several decades in North America and habitat loss is hypothesized as a leading cause for the declines. Chimney Swifts (Chaetura pelagica) are a model species to test this hypothesis because nest site use and availability is easily assessed. To determine if nest site availability is a limiting factor for Chimney Swifts, we established a volunteer-based survey to inventory and describe chimneys (n = 928) that were used or unused by swifts. A logistic regression model showed that swifts preferred chimneys with a greater length exposed above the roofline and greater inside area, which were not associated with residential buildings. The average chimney used by swifts extended 2.86 m above the roofline with an internal area of 10,079 cm². The regression model represents the range of nest-site conditions that swifts will tolerate; this was used to build a linear discriminant function (ldf) that had an I-index of 82 % (measure of prediction success). We applied the ldf coefficients to predict chimney occupancy in three southern Ontario communities. Of 366 open chimneys, the ldf classified 139 as suitable but only 24.4 % were occupied by swifts. Given that >75 % of suitable sites were unoccupied, swifts are likely not experiencing competition from habitat saturation. Our results suggest that Chimney Swift populations, and likely other aerially-foraging insectivorous birds, are limited primarily by other processes not measured in this study, such as changes in prey.     

Efficacy of eBird data as an aid in conservation planning and monitoring

One of the world's largest citizen science projects is eBird, a database that has been used primarily to address questions of bird distributions and abundance over large spatial scales. However, addressing finer‐scale questions is also possible, depending on survey coverage and whether assumptions and limitations are matched to the scale of inferences. Our objective was to determine if the eBird database could be used to develop estimates of bird abundance and diversity comparable to those from standardized shorebird surveys. We compared a year of standardized shorebird surveys by trained observers at Snook Islands Natural Area located in Palm Beach County, Florida, to a year of eBird observations from the same site. Total species richness derived from eBird (25 species) was higher than that from standardized surveys (20 species). Similarly, we found the Shannon diversity index calculated from eBird was higher (2.81) than the same index calculated from standardized surveys (2.21; P < 0.001). The higher diversity and species richness may reflect the greater effort of eBird participants (35,289 person‐hours) compared to our standard surveys (2126 person‐hours). We found only a slight difference in parameter estimates between data obtained from eBird and from standardized surveys. Potential use and value of eBird as a tool for land managers and conservationists may be greater than currently realized, but studies conducted in a wider range of ecosystems and locations are needed to develop generalizations.     

The behavioural ecology and population dynamics of a cryptic ground‐dwelling mammal in an urban Australian landscape

Urbanization results in widespread habitat loss and fragmentation and generally has a negative impact upon native wildlife, in particular ground‐dwelling mammals. The northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus; Marsupialia: Peramelidae) is one of relatively few native Australian ground‐dwelling mammals that is able to survive within urbanized landscapes. As a consequence of extensive clearing and urban development within the city of Brisbane, bandicoots are now restricted to the mostly small (<10 ha) bushland fragments scattered across the city landscape. Our study examined the behavioural ecology of northern brown bandicoots within habitat fragments located on a major creek‐line, using mark‐recapture population monitoring and radio telemetry. Bandicoots at monitored sites were found to occur at high densities (typically one individual ha^?1), although one‐third of the populations were transient. Radio tracking revealed that bandicoots had relatively small home ranges (mean 1.5 ± 0.2 ha) comprised largely of bushland/grassland with dense, often weed‐infested ground cover. Bandicoots sheltered by day in these densely covered areas and also spent most time foraging there at night, although they occasionally ventured small distances to forage in adjacent maintained parklands and residential lawns. We suggest that introduced tall grasses and other weeds contribute to high habitat quality within riparian habitat fragments and facilitate the persistence of high density populations, comprised of individuals with small home ranges. The generalized dietary and habitat requirements of northern brown bandicoots, as well as a high reproductive output, undoubtedly facilitate the survival of the species in urban habitat fragments. Further research is required on other native mammal species in urbanized landscapes to gain a greater understanding of how best to conserve wildlife in these heavily modified environments.     

Contrasting patterns of variation in urban populations of Cepaea (Gastropoda: Pulmonata): a tale of two cities

The shell colour and banding polymorphisms in urban populations of Cepaea snails were studied in Sheffield (England) and Wrocław (Poland), which are two cities of similar size. Both Cepaea nemoralis and Cepaea hortensis were found in Sheffield, but only C. nemoralis was found in Wrocław. In neither city was variation with habitat apparent, nor was there evidence of large-scale geographical patterns. Spatial autocorrelation analyses revealed only vaguely defined local clusters. There was a greater degree of among-population variation in Sheffield, and more cases of extreme frequencies and low levels of polymorphism. Wrocław populations were more uniform and highly polymorphic. These differences can be related to the history of these snails in each city. Sheffield has been colonized mainly in the last 20 years, and some parts of the city with apparently suitable habitat remain unoccupied. Leptokurtic dispersal of small propagules followed by local spread appears likely. Values of F _ST resemble those seen in districts elsewhere with 'Area Effects'. Although there are ancient woodlands within the city, they have been colonized too recently for selection to achieve a new balance. Wrocław has held Cepaea populations for at least 100 years, and they are denser and more continuous. Shaded habitats are recent and temporary; the overall pattern of variation matches that seen in open habitats in districts elsewhere in which variation with habitat is apparent, and values of F _ST also correspond. Population history and the character of dispersal clearly affect the patterns of variation observed.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 97 , 27–39.     

城市生态学长期监测的几个关键问题

伴随城市人口快速聚集及人类活动加剧,城市生态环境质量及其对人类社会经济发展的支撑能力正在受到严重挑战,城市生态系统及其变化的研究越来越受到重视,国内外涌现出大量城市生态学长期监测工作,但相关监测方法的讨论还很少。在分析城市生态学长期监测类型和实践经验基础上,从城市面临的环境胁迫和建设管理需求出发,构建了城市生态学长期监测的"胁迫+需求-生态系统响应"总体思路框架;从科学上最基本和社会上最关心的城市生态系统要素、格局和过程着眼,提出城市生态学长期监测的7项内容(土地覆盖与利用、人居环境质量、生物多样性、生物质生产、水文过程、生物地球化学循环和物质代谢);并分析了城市生态学长期监测的4种方法(遥感监测、仪器监测、调查监测、公众科学监测),分析了城市生态学长期监测单元及其空间布局及监测频率。这将为我国城市生态学长期监测工作开展提供方法论基础和实践参考。     

Population trends and calling phenology of anuran populations surveyed in Ontario estimated using acoustic surveys

Many acoustic surveys have been initiated to monitor anuran populations in North America. We used the Ontario Backyard Frog Survey to examine temporal and spatial trends, from 1994 to 2001. Our data suggest that there have been no consistent trends in site occupancy during this time period, but there were some differences among years. Both American toads and northern leopard frogs were more prevalent in 1995 than in 1994. Similarly, species richness was higher in 1995 and 1996 compared to most other years. Individual populations of species, however, often were not stable. Extinction and colonization rates varied among species, and ranged from 1.5 to 19.5% per year, and site occupancy was negatively correlated with extinction rates. Daily detection probabilities were often quite low, and were primarily driven by the perceived calling intensity. We recommend: (i) that monitoring programs attempt to preserve common survey routes, despite heavy turnover of volunteers, (ii) calling surveys be timed to maximize detection probabilities, and (iii) analyses based upon landscape features and GIS approaches should be used to determine localized changes in site occupancy or species richness.     

Oviposition strategy as a means of local adaptation to plant defence in native and invasive populations of the viburnum leaf beetle

Herbivores have been hypothesized to adapt locally to variation in plant defences and such adaptation could facilitate novel associations in the context of biological invasions. Here, we show that in the native range of the viburnum leaf beetle (VLB, Pyrrhalta viburni), two populations of geographically isolated hosts-Viburnum opulus and Viburnum tinus-have divergent defences against VLB oviposition: negative versus positive density-dependent egg-crushing wound responses, respectively. Populations of beetles coexisting with each host show an adaptive behavioural response: aggregative versus non-aggregative oviposition on V. opulus and V. tinus, respectively. In parallel, we show that in North America, where VLB is invasive, defences of three novel hosts are negatively density-dependent, and beetles' oviposition behaviour is aggregative. Thus, local adaptation to plant defences has the potential to facilitate the invasion of herbivores onto novel hosts.     

DNA barcoding in surveys of small mammal communities: a field study in Suriname

The performance of DNA barcoding as a tool for fast taxonomic verification in ecological assessment projects of small mammals was evaluated during a collecting trip to a lowland tropical rainforest site in Suriname. We also compared the performance of tissue sampling onto FTA CloneSaver cards vs. liquid nitrogen preservation. DNA barcodes from CloneSaver cards were recovered from 85% of specimens, but DNA degradation was apparent, because only 36% of sequence reads were long (over 600 bp). In contrast, cryopreserved tissue delivered 99% barcode recovery (97% > 600 bp). High humidity, oversampling or tissue type may explain the poor performance of CloneSaver cards. Comparison of taxonomic assignments made in the field and from barcode results revealed inconsistencies in just 3.4% of cases and most of the discrepancies were due to field misidentifications (3%) rather than sampling/analytical error (0.5%). This result reinforces the utility of DNA barcoding as a tool for verification of taxonomic identifications in ecological surveys, which is especially important when the collection of voucher specimens is not possible.     

Lack of statistical power as a major limitation in understanding MHC‐mediated immunocompetence in wild vertebrate populations

Disentangling the sources of variation in developing an effective immune response against pathogens is of major interest to immunoecology and evolutionary biology. To date, the link between immunocompetence and genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) has received little attention in wild animals, despite the key role of MHC genes in activating the adaptive immune system. Although several studies point to a link between MHC and immunocompetence, negative findings have also been reported. Such disparate findings suggest that limited statistical power might be affecting studies on this topic, owing to insufficient sample sizes and/or a generally small effect of MHC on the immunocompetence of wild vertebrates. To clarify this issue, we investigated the link between MHC variation and seven immunocompetence proxies in a large sample of barn owls and estimated the effect sizes and statistical power of this and published studies on this topic. We found that MHC poorly explained variation in immunocompetence of barn owls, with small‐to‐moderate associations between MHC and immunocompetence in owls (effect size: .1 ≥ r ≤ .3) similar to other vertebrates studied to date. Such small‐to‐moderate effects were largely associated with insufficient power, which was only sufficient (>0.8) to detect moderate‐to‐large effect sizes (r ≥ .3). Thus, studies linking MHC variation with immunocompetence in wild populations are underpowered to detect MHC effects, which are likely to be of generally small magnitude. Larger sample sizes (>200) will be required to achieve sufficient power in future studies aiming to robustly test for a link between MHC variation and immunocompetence.     

Strip counts as a means of determining densities and habitat utilization patterns in lake fishes

Synopsis The strip count method of determining fish densities was investigated for a small lake in a series of inshore sites that differed in their physical and biological characteristics and in the communities of fishes present. Overall total numbers of fish, number of species, ratio of commonest to total species, and 2nd commonest to total species, were investigated. Counts were made during time of the feeding peaks.Repeatability of the method was tested by series of five traverses at 10-minute intervals and was good both for total numbers of fish and ratio of commonest species to total fish. However, it varied with the habitat type, being excellent for small semi-isolated weedy sites, good for gravel-bottom sites, but only fair in open sandy bays where the strip was laid in the middle of an extensive area of homogeneous habitat.Series of comparative counts made (a) between morning and afternoon on the same day and, (b) between successive mornings, to determine how constant populations were between these time intervals, proved to be within the same general range but were significantly different by the Mann Whitney U test at the = 0.05 level.In small lakes the strip count method proves to have considerable potential in the study of habitat specializations, taxocene structures, and relative abundances.     

A long term study of small mammal populations in a Brazilian agricultural landscape

Long-term monitoring of small mammal populations is very important to understand the variations in temporal abundance on a large time scale, which are related to ecological, economic and epidemiological phenomena. The aim of this study is to monitor the populations of the marsupials Didelphis aurita and Philander frenatus and the rodents Nectomys squamipes, Akodon cursor and Oligorysomys nigripes in a locality of typical Brazilian rural landscape, Sumidouro Municipality, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. A mark-recapture study was conducted during five years. We analyzed the population dynamics, the reproduction and age structure of these species. Both marsupials presented higher population sizes in the end of wet period and beginning of the dry period, which can be explained by the seasonal reproduction which begins in the middle of the dry period and ends in the last months of the wet period. N. squamipes reproduced throughout the year but mostly during rainy periods, due to the close association of this rodent to resources found in the water. Higher survivorship and recruitment rates were in the end of the wet season. The rodent A. cursor had an opportunist reproduction, resulting in high turnover rates. Survivorship increased with the effects of the dry periods. O. nigripes showed a clear annual pattern of population cycle with peaks during the dry season. The rodents did not show potential to present outbreaks and become agricultural pests. The annual population cycles of O. nigripes and the unique peak of A. cursor population during five years highlight attention to their importance as wild reservoirs of the hantavirus disease. Their ecological characteristics associated to their opportunistic behavior make these species prone to be good reservoirs of zoonoses.     

21世纪以来蕨类植物研究论文的发表情况: 基于Web of Science的数据统计

蕨类植物是地球上起源最为古老的维管植物, 在陆生植物演化中具有重要意义。本文通过Web of Science核心数据库(Core Collection)对目前所有关于“fern”、“lycophyte”、“pteridophyte”、“pteridophyta”等的科研论文进行了分析。结果表明: (1) 2000年后, 蕨类植物论文数量增加迅速, 特别是2006年以来增加显著, 现在年均已突破600篇; (2) 2010年以来的以蕨类植物为研究材料和对象的学科和研究领域变得越来越多元化, 多学科结合和交叉的研究方向成为新趋势; (3)中国正在成为蕨类植物研究的热点国家并且成果显著; (4)中国蕨类植物研究在快速发展的同时也出现了各研究机构之间的发展不同步。期望本论文能给蕨类植物的相关研究提供新的方向, 为中国蕨类植物工作者提供借鉴。     

Consequences of ignoring spatial variation in population trend when conducting a power analysis

Long‐term, large‐scale monitoring programs are becoming increasingly common to document status and trends of wild populations. A successful program for monitoring population trend hinges on the ability to detect the trend of interest. Power analyses are useful for quantifying the sample size needed for trend detection, given expected variation in the population. Four components of variation (within‐year variation at a given site, interannual variation within a site, variation among sites in the interannual variation, and variation among sites in mean abundance or density) are commonly considered in power analyses for population trend, but a fifth is rarely considered: variation among sites in the local trend. Spatial variation in trend is expected to reduce statistical power, but the magnitude of this reduction has not been fully explored. We used computer simulations to evaluate the consequences of ignoring spatial variation in trend under a variety of sampling designs and wide ranges of other components of variation. The effect of spatial variation in trend on power was minor when other input parameters took extreme values that made the trend either very difficult or very easy to detect. However, at moderate values of the other parameters, spatial variation in trend had a strong effect, reducing statistical power by up to 60%. In some cases, ignoring spatial variation in trend resulted in an 80% probability of a type I error (falsely detecting a trend in a stable population). Spatial variation in trend is therefore an important consideration when designing a long‐term monitoring program for many species, especially those affected by local conditions at sites that are repeatedly surveyed. If variation in trend is ignored, as in many previous power analyses, the recommended sampling design will likely be insufficient to detect the trend of interest and lead to potentially false conclusions of a stable population.     

Power to detect trends in abundance of secretive marsh birds: Effects of species traits and sampling effort

Standardized protocols for surveying secretive marsh birds have been implemented across North America, but the efficacy of surveys to detect population trends has not been evaluated. We used survey data collected from populations of marsh birds across North America and simulations to explore how characteristics of bird populations (proportion of survey stations occupied, abundance at occupied stations, and detection probability) and aspects of sampling effort (numbers of survey routes, stations/route, and surveys/station/year) affect statistical power to detect trends in abundance of marsh bird populations. In general, the proportion of survey stations along a route occupied by a species had a greater relative effect on power to detect trends than did the number of birds detected per survey at occupied stations. Uncertainty introduced by imperfect detection during surveys reduced power to detect trends considerably, but across the range of detection probabilities for most species of marsh birds, variation in detection probability had only a minor influence on power. For species that occupy a relatively high proportion of survey stations (0.20), have relatively high abundances at occupied stations (2.0 birds/station), and have high detection probability (0.50), ≥40 routes with 10 survey stations per route surveyed 3 times per year would provide an 80% chance of detecting a 3% annual decrease in abundance after 20 years of surveys. Under the same assumptions but for species that are less common, ≥100 routes would be needed to achieve the same power. Our results can help inform the design of programs to monitor trends in abundance of marsh bird populations, especially with regards to the amount of sampling effort necessary to meet programmatic goals. © 2013 The Wildlife Society     

Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: Lessons from a domestic mammal population

The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, N(e) ), as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f(e) , effective number of founder genomes, f(g) , and effective number of non-founder genomes, f(ne) ). Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that N(e) decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f(e) was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f(e) was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f(g) , the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD) which was obtained from estimates of f(g) , decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f(ne) from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f(e) to f(g) indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f(ne) was much higher than f(e) , thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f(e) > f(ne) . The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.