Species’ response patterns to habitat fragmentation: do trees support the extinction threshold hypothesis?

In fragmented landscapes the relationship between the probability of occurrence of single species and the amount of suitable habitat is usually not proportional, with a threshold habitat level below which the population becomes extinct. Ecological theory predicts that, although the reduction in species’ occurrence probabilities (and eventually the extinction threshold) is a direct consequence of habitat loss, habitat fragmentation might reduce species’ occurrence probabilities and affect the location of this threshold by reducing its predicted occurrence to lower levels of habitat amount. However, little is known about the validity of this extinction threshold hypothesis. Here, we performed analyses on the relationships between the probability of occurrence of eight tree species and the availability of forest habitat for two different empirical scenarios of low and moderate to high fragmentation. We partitioned the effects of habitat amount versus fragmentation by using two metrics: (1) the percentage of forest cover, and (2) the proportion of this percentage occurring in the largest forest patch. We find that, although decreasing forest cover had negative effects on the occurrence of tree species irrespective of fragmentation levels, forest fragmentation significantly modified the response pattern in six tree species, although only one species confirmed the extinction threshold hypothesis, which we interpret as a consequence of high degree of forest specialism and low dispersal ability. For most species, fragmentation either had positive effects or did not affect significantly the species’ probability of occurrence. This indicates that the effects of habitat fragmentation on tree species are weak relative to the effects of habitat amount, which is the main determinant of the reduction in species’ occurrence probabilities, and eventually species extinction, in fragmented landscapes.     

Detecting Fragmentation Extinction Thresholds for Forest Understory Plant Species in Peninsular Spain

Ecological theory predicts that fragmentation aggravates the effects of habitat loss, yet empirical results show mixed evidences, which fail to support the theory instead reinforcing the primary importance of habitat loss. Fragmentation hypotheses have received much attention due to their potential implications for biodiversity conservation, however, animal studies have traditionally been their main focus. Here we assess variation in species sensitivity to forest amount and fragmentation and evaluate if fragmentation is related to extinction thresholds in forest understory herbs and ferns. Our expectation was that forest herbs would be more sensitive to fragmentation than ferns due to their lower dispersal capabilities. Using forest cover percentage and the proportion of this percentage occurring in the largest patch within UTM cells of 10-km resolution covering Peninsular Spain, we partitioned the effects of forest amount versus fragmentation and applied logistic regression to model occurrences of 16 species. For nine models showing robustness according to a set of quality criteria we subsequently defined two empirical fragmentation scenarios, minimum and maximum, and quantified species’ sensitivity to forest contraction with no fragmentation, and to fragmentation under constant forest cover. We finally assessed how the extinction threshold of each species (the habitat amount below which it cannot persist) varies under no and maximum fragmentation. Consistent with their preference for forest habitats probability occurrences of all species decreased as forest cover contracted. On average, herbs did not show significant sensitivity to fragmentation whereas ferns were favored. In line with theory, fragmentation yielded higher extinction thresholds for two species. For the remaining species, fragmentation had either positive or non-significant effects. We interpret these differences as reflecting species-specific traits and conclude that although forest amount is of primary importance for the persistence of understory plants, to neglect the impact of fragmentation for some species can lead them to local extinction.     

生境破碎化对动物种群存活的影响

生境破碎是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。通常以岛屿生物地理学、异质种群生物学和景观生态学的理论来解释不同空间尺度中生境破碎化的生态学效应。生境破碎化引起面积效应、隔离效应和边缘效应。这些效应通过影响动物种群的绝灭阈值、分布和多度、种间关系以及生态系统过程,最终影响动物种群的存活。野外研究表明,破碎化对动物的影响,因物种、生境类型和地理区域不同而有所变化,因此,预测物种在破碎生境中的存活比较困难。研究热点集中于：确定生境面积损失和生境斑块的空间格局对破碎景观中物种绝灭的相对影响,破碎景观中物种的适宜生境比例和绝灭阈值,异质种群动态以及生态系统的生态过程。随着3S技术的发展,生境破碎化模型趋于复杂,而发展有效的模型和验证模型将成为一项富有挑战性的任务。     

Habitat and Life History Determinants of Antbird Occurrence in Variable-Sized Amazonian Forest Fragments

The highest avian species richness on Earth is found in the Neotropics, with the speciose antbird superfamily (Thamnophilidae, Formicariidae, Grallariidae and Conopophagidae) accounting for 15 percent of South American passerine diversity. Antbird species have divergent life histories and ecological requirements, resulting in considerable interspecific variation in responses to anthropogenic habitat modification. Here, we examine interspecific differences in antbird responses to both habitat fragmentation and perturbation in a region of the so-called ‘Arc of Deforestation’ of southern Brazilian Amazonia in northern Mato Grosso. We surveyed the antbird community of 31 variable-sized forest patches and found that antbird species richness was predominantly affected by patch size and isolation, although forest patch quality was also important. Life history predictors were less important overall in determining patch occupancy and minimum patch area requirements with body mass and geographic range size the most important predictors. Foraging niche was also important; mixed flock followers, bamboo specialists and army-ant followers were all more prone to local extinction in small fragments. Although most Amazonian antbird species are not currently threatened, rates of interfluvial endemism are high and future forest loss may imperil many species currently considered to be of low conservation concern. Lessons learnt in the identification of fragmentation-sensitive genera and guilds may be applicable to other antbird species outside Amazonia, such as those in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Ensuring future survival of antbirds across neotropical forest landscapes that retain only a small percentage of their original primary forest cover will rest on protecting remaining large forest patches and maintaining structural and functional connectivity between them.     

Breakdown of the species-area relationship in exotic but not in native forest patches

We studied the pattern of bird species richness in native and exotic forest patches in Hungary. We hypothesized that species-area relationship will depend on forest naturalness, and on the habitat specialization of bird species. Therefore, we expected strong species-area relationship in native forest patches and forest bird species, and weaker relationship in exotic forest patches containing generalist species. We censused breeding passerine bird communities three times in 13 forest patches with only native tree species, and 14 with only exotic trees in Eastern Hungary in 2003. Although most bird species (92%) of the total of 41 species occurred in both exotic and native forests, the species-area relationship was significant for forest specialist, but not for generalist species in the native forests. No relationship between bird species and area was found for either species group in the forest with exotic tree species. The comparison of native versus exotic forest patches of similar sizes revealed that only large (>100 ha) native forests harbor higher bird species richness than exotic forests for the forest specialist bird species. There is no difference between small and medium forest patches and in richness of generalist species. Thus, the species-area relationship may diminish in archipelago of exotic habitat patches and/or for habitat generalist species; this result supports the warning that the extension of exotic habitats have been significantly contributing to the decline of natural community patterns.     

Metapopulation dynamics of a beetle species confined to burned forest sites in a managed forest region

Despite increasing awareness of the theoretical importance of habitat dynamics on metapopulations, only a few empirical studies have been conducted. We aimed to increase our understanding of how patch size, dynamics and connectivity affect colonization–extinction dynamics and the occurrence patterns of a beetle (Stephanopachys linearis), which breeds only in burned trees, existing as dynamic habitat patches that have become rare in managed forest landscapes. We assessed species’ presence/absence twice in all known habitat patches (i.e. > 1 ha sites where forest fires had occurred during the previous 2–15 yr) in a 200 × 150 km region of central Sweden, dominated by managed boreal forest. Evaluated over six years, the colonization rate was 47% and the local extinction risk was 65%. Probability of colonization increased with patch size (number of suitable trees in a site) and connectivity to occupied patches within 30 km, and decreased with increasing time since fire. Local extinction risk decreased with habitat patch size but increased, unexpectedly, with connectivity. Occurrence increased with patch size and decreased with increasing time since fire. At a regional scale, S. linearis tracks the fire dynamics by colonising sites with burned trees and by becoming extinct at rates which make the species rare at sites where burnt trees are more than eight years old. In managed boreal forest landscapes, a large proportion of sites may be created by prescribed burning (in our study area: 82%), and consequently human decisions strongly affect the future amount of habitat for fire‐dependent species and its spatial distribution. Stephanopachys linearis uses burned sites more often if more trees are retained and, to some extent, if sites are concentrated in those parts of a region that already support high population densities of the species.     

Forest species in an agricultural landscape in the Netherlands: Effects of habitat fragmentation

Abstract. For 312 forest patches on sandy soils in the Netherlands, effects of fragmentation are studied of forest habitat in the past on the present occurrence of forest plant species. Using regression techniques, the numbers of forest edge, interior, zoochorous and anemochorous species, as well as occurrence of 24 individual species were related to patch area and connectivity measures. Connectivity was defined as the amount of forest habitat around patches within three zones up to 1000 m. Plant categories were distinguished by habitat type and dispersal mechanism. The results showed that number of total species and number of species of all habitat and dispersal categories increased with area. The occurrence of ten individually studied species were also positively related to area. Most of them were interior species. The number of zoochorous species increased with increasing connectivity. Also occurrence of ten individually studied species were affected by connectivity. Interior zoochorous species showed the highest percentage of affected species. The relationship of interior, animal-dispersed plants to connectivity can be explained by the limited distances covered by their dispersal agents (forest birds and ants) in a non-forest habitat. Also, some anemochorous plants appeared to be affected by connectivity, especially those with heavy seeds and potentially short distance dispersal. As not all species within a certain dispersal or habitat category react similar to area or isolation, it is suggested that differences in underlying processes of fragmentation such as local extinction and colonization need more focus.     

Extinction–immigration dynamics lag behind environmental filtering in shaping the composition of tropical dry forests within a changing landscape

The impact of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity is a major issue. However, we still lack an integrative understanding of how these changes influence biodiversity dynamics over time. In this study, we investigate the effects of these changes in terms of both niche-based and neutral dynamics. We hypothesize that habitat loss has delayed effects on neutral immigration–extinction dynamics, while edge effects and environmental heterogeneity in habitat patches have rapid effects on niche-based dynamics. We analyzed taxonomic and functional composition of 100 tree communities in a tropical dry forest landscape of New-Caledonia subject to habitat loss and fragmentation. We designed an original, process-based simulation framework, and performed Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the influence of niche-based and neutral processes. Then, we performed partial regressions to evaluate the relationships between inferred parameter values of communities and landscape metrics (distance to edge, patch area, and habitat amount around communities), derived from either recent or past (65 yr ago) aerial photographs, while controlling for the effect of soil and topography. We found that landscape structure influences both environmental filtering and immigration. Immigration rate was positively related to past habitat amount surrounding communities. In contrast, environmental filtering was mostly affected by present landscape structure and mainly influenced by edge vicinity and topography. Our results highlight that landscape changes have contrasting spatio-temporal influences on niche-based and neutral assembly dynamics. First, landscape-level habitat loss and community isolation reduce immigration and increase demographic stochasticity, resulting in slow decline of local species diversity and extinction debt. Second, recent edge creation affects environmental filtering, incurring rapid changes in community composition by favoring species with edge-adapted strategies. Our study brings new insights about temporal impacts of landscape changes on biodiversity dynamics. We stress that landscape history critically influences these dynamics and should be taken into account in conservation policies.     

Assessing Extinction Risk in Small Metapopulations of Golden‐headed Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Bahia State,Brazil

Golden‐headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) are endangered primates endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where loss of forest and its connectivity threaten species survival. Understanding the role of habitat availability and configuration on population declines is critical for guiding proactive conservation for this, and other, endangered species. We conducted population viability analysis to assess vulnerability of ten GHLT metapopulations to habitat loss and small population size. Seven metapopulations had a low risk of extirpation (or local extinction) over the next 100 years assuming no further forest loss, and even small populations could persist with immediate protection. Three metapopulations had a moderate/high risk of extirpation, suggesting extinction debt may be evident in parts of the species’ range. When deforestation was assumed to continue at current rates, extirpation risk significantly increased while abundance and genetic diversity decreased for all metapopulations. Extirpation risk was significantly negatively correlated with the size of the largest patch available to metapopulations, underscoring the importance of large habitat patches for species persistence. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analysis using logistic regression, and our results showed that local extinction risk was sensitive to percentage of females breeding, adult female mortality, and dispersal rate and survival; conservation or research programs that target these aspects of the species’ biology/ecology could have a disproportionately important impact on species survival. We stress that efforts to protect populations and tracts of habitat of sufficient size throughout the species’ distribution will be important in the near‐term to protect the species from continuing decline and extinction.     

Landscape matrix modifies richness of plants and insects in grassland fragments

There is an increasing awareness that not only area and isolation, but also the characteristics of the landscape surrounding habitat patches influence population persistence and species diversity in fragmented landscapes. In this study, we examine the effects of grassland fragmentation and land use in the landscape matrix (on a 2 km scale) on species richness of plants, butterflies, bees and hoverflies. These organisms were studied in replicated remnant patches of different sizes and isolation, embedded in landscapes dominated either by forest, arable land or a mix of these. We found positive effects of patch area on species richness of the three insect taxa, but not of plants. Isolation had a negative effect only on hoverflies. Matrix type had contrasting effects on the studied taxa. Species richness of plants and butterflies was lowest in patches in landscapes dominated by arable land and highest in forest‐dominated landscapes. For hoverflies, the negative effect of small patch area was strongest in forest‐dominated landscapes, and there was a similar non‐significant trend for bees. Our study shows the importance of considering matrix characteristics when studying responses to habitat fragmentation. Differences in matrix response among organism groups probably impinge on differing mechanisms. A forest matrix is likely to provide additional resources for butterflies but either constitute a barrier to dispersal or deprive resources as compared to an arable matrix for hoverflies. Enhanced plant diversity in grassland patches embedded in forested landscapes can be explained by habitat generalists more easily invading these patches, or by an unpaid extinction debt in these landscapes.     

How well is current plant trait composition predicted by modern and historical forest spatial configuration?

There is increasing evidence to suggest that a delayed response of many forest species to habitat loss and fragmentation leads to the development of extinction debts and immigration credits in affected forest habitat. These time lags result in plant communities which are not well predicted by present day landscape structure, reducing the accuracy of biodiversity assessments and predictions for future change. Here, species richness data and mean values for five life history characteristics within deciduous broadleaved forest habitat across Great Britain were used to quantify the degree to which aspects of present day forest plant composition are best explained by modern or historical forest patch area. Ancient forest specialist richness, mean rarity and mean seed terminal velocity were not well predicted by modern patch area, implying the existence of a degree of lag in British forest patches. Mean seedbank persistence values were more closely related to modern patch area than historical, particularly in larger patches. The variation in response for different mean trait values suggests that species respond to landscape change at different rates depending upon their combinations of different trait states. Current forest understorey communities are therefore likely to consist of a mixture of declining species whose extinction debt is still to be paid, and faster colonising immigrant species. These results indicate that without management action, rare and threatened species of plant are likely to be lost in the future as a result of changes in forest spatial configuration that have already taken place. The lag seen here for rare specialist plants suggests however that there may still be scope to protect such species before they are lost from forest patches.     

Changes in landscape composition influence the decline of a threatened woodland caribou population

1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change.     

Fragments are not islands: patch vs landscape perspectives on songbird presence and abundance in a harvested boreal forest

The boreal mixed-wood forest of northern Alberta. Canada is characterized by a mosaic of deciduous and coniferous forest patches. Recently, the deciduous portion of the forest was allocated for industrial logging. Widespread habitat loss and fragmentation may negatively affect birds and other wildlife. Most research on the effects of habitat loss on bird abundance has focussed on the forest as a patch or island in a matrix of non-habitat, but some species of songbird may use both the forest patch and the matrix. We hypothesized that some species of songbird might be able to compensate for a loss of deciduous forest by moving into other habitat types (termed "habitat compensation"). We report on a replicated field investigation in which we assessed the response of songbirds to commercial timber harvest by first examining their abundance within deciduous forest only, and then adding the clearcuts and coniferous forest in the surrounding areas to the analysis for a broader, landscape view of the system. Bird communities in deciduous and coniferous habitats had significant overlap in species composition: there was less overlap between forest and clearcuts. The shift from patch-centred to landscape sampling altered our interpretation of over half of the most common species' responses to logging in at least one year, suggesting that habitat compensation may have been occurring. However, significant variation in responses of species was observed between the two study areas. Our past reliance on island biogeographic and other single habitat approaches may be inappropriate for this system, and we stress that a broad, landscape view is required to properly assess and interpret species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation.     

Forest bird diversity in Mediterranean areas affected by wildfires: a multi-scale approach

Fire is a key mechanism creating and maintaining habitat heterogeneity in Mediterranean landscapes by turning continuous woody landscapes into mosaics of forests and shrublands. Due to the long historical role of fires in the Mediterranean, we hypothesised a moderate negative effect of this type of perturbation on forest bird distribution at a landscape level. We conducted point bird censuses in Aleppo pine forest patches surrounded by burnt shrublands and studied the relationships between three ecological groups of bird species (forest canopy species, forest understorey species, and ubiquitous species) and the features of local habitat, whole patch and surrounding landscape. We used a multi-scale approach to assess the effects of landscape variables at increasing spatial scales on point bird richness. Regarding local habitat components, canopy species were positively associated with tall pines while understorey species with the cover of shrubs and plants from holm-oak forests. Forest birds were positively related to patch size and irregular forest shapes, that is, with high perimeter/size ratios. Thus, these species did not seem to perceive edges as low quality but rather favourable microhabitats. We did not detect any negative effect of isolation or cover of woodlands in the landscape on the presence of forest species after local habitat factors had been accounted for. Finally, only local habitat factors entered the model for ubiquitous species. We suggest that mosaic-like landscapes shaped by fires in the Mediterranean basin are not strongly associated with negative effects fragmentation on forest birds other than those related with habitat loss.     

Immigration rates in fragmented landscapes--empirical evidence for the importance of habitat amount for species persistence

Background

The total amount of native vegetation is an important property of fragmented landscapes and is known to exert a strong influence on population and metapopulation dynamics. As the relationship between habitat loss and local patch and gap characteristics is strongly non-linear, theoretical models predict that immigration rates should decrease dramatically at low levels of remaining native vegetation cover, leading to patch-area effects and the existence of species extinction thresholds across fragmented landscapes with different proportions of remaining native vegetation. Although empirical patterns of species distribution and richness give support to these models, direct measurements of immigration rates across fragmented landscapes are still lacking.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using the Brazilian Atlantic forest marsupial Gray Slender Mouse Opossum (Marmosops incanus) as a model species and estimating demographic parameters of populations in patches situated in three landscapes differing in the total amount of remaining forest, we tested the hypotheses that patch-area effects on population density are apparent only at intermediate levels of forest cover, and that immigration rates into forest patches are defined primarily by landscape context surrounding patches. As expected, we observed a positive patch-area effect on M. incanus density only within the landscape with intermediate forest cover. Density was independent of patch size in the most forested landscape and the species was absent from the most deforested landscape. Specifically, the mean estimated numbers of immigrants into small patches were lower in the landscape with intermediate forest cover compared to the most forested landscape.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results reveal the crucial importance of the total amount of remaining native vegetation for species persistence in fragmented landscapes, and specifically as to the role of variable immigration rates in providing the underlying mechanism that drives both patch-area effects and species extinction thresholds.     

象科动物对当地森林生态系统的影响

现存的象科动物(Elephantidae)分为非洲草原象(Loxodonta africana)、非洲森林象(Loxodonta cyclotis)和亚洲象(Elephas maximus)3 种,作为森林生态系统的关键物种,它们对当地森林生态系统的影响非常复杂,在一定环境条件下,既可能是积极的作用,也可能是消极的作用。积极的作用包括:帮助植物传播种子;促进种子萌发;创造断层,维持群落多样性;为其他动物增加食物资源;为其他动物创造栖息地。消极的作用包括:使一些物种的种群数量减小;使森林变成灌木丛和草原等。而由于活动受限导致的种群密度过高是象科动物对森林生态系统产生消极作用的主要原因。当前象科动物的3 个物种均面临种群数量锐减和生存空间不断缩小的危机,为此迫切需要针对其对生物多样性和生态平衡的影响开展深入和全面的研究,并且应根据实际情况因地制宜地制定管理措施。     

Species traits and the response of open‐habitat species to forest edge in landscape mosaics

Human driven changes in land‐use have increased the need to understand how landscape structure affects species distribution. We studied how forest edges affected the distribution of birds in grasslands recently encroached by forest patches. We investigated how species’ biological traits influenced their response to vegetation change near forest edges. We censured birds along 300‐m line transects run into the open habitat perpendicularly to forest edges. We recorded habitat variables and landscape context along each transect and characterized edges and forest patches. We recorded 33 bird species in 153 transects for a total of 654 individuals. We analyzed species response to edges with generalized linear mixed models. Habitat preference was prevalent to explain species response to forest edges. The abundance of open‐habitat birds such as skylark Alauda arvensis decreased significantly in the vicinity of edges. This negative response extended within 150 m from the edge. The effect was disproportionately higher in open‐habitat species with high conservation concern. The abundance of species feeding or/and breeding in both forest and open habitat, such as woodlarks Lullula arborea, sharply increased near edges (positive edge response). Abundance of shrub and non‐shrub dependent species increased with distance to edge. The two species groups did no differ in abundance/distance to edge relationship. Intensity of species response to forest edges varied among transects in relation to transect vegetation characteristics. Edge length or aspect, diet and nest height had no direct effect. We discuss the possible role of variation in resources and nest predation risk to explain observed patterns.     

Factors affecting bird richness in a fragmented cork oak forest in Morocco

The cork oak forest of Ma'amora in north-western Morocco was the largest cork oak forest in the world until the beginning of the 20th century. Due to growing land use for agriculture and urbanization, however, this forest has become fragmented into relatively small and isolated patches. The effects of this fragmentation on the diversity of wild animal communities have never been investigated despite the importance of such investigations in elaborating long-term conservation plans of the biodiversity of this forest system. In this study of a sample of 44 forest patches we assessed the relationships between species numbers of wintering, breeding and spring migrant birds and patch size, shape, isolation and vegetation structure. We found that species richnesses of the three studied bird assemblages were strongly related to local vegetation structure, namely to the diversity and abundance of trees and bushes. Patches with higher diversity and cover of trees and bushes support higher numbers of bird species. However, patch size, shape and isolation were not significant predictors of bird richness. These results suggest that bird communities in the studied forest patches were more likely shaped by local habitat suitability rather than the amount of habitat or patch isolation. The results also demonstrate negative effects of current human pressures, namely logging, grazing and disturbance, on the diversity of bird communities in this forest system. This emphasizes the need for urgent management efforts aiming at reducing the negative impacts of forest use by humans on bird diversity in this forest system.     

Human-disturbance and caterpillars in managed forest fragments

The impact of forest-edge habitat on Lepidoptera assemblages has been well-studied, but the impact of trailside habitat has rarely been considered. We surveyed caterpillar populations in relation to recreational trails at 72 quadrats in four forest fragments in southeastern, Quebec, Canada. We found a consistent negative relationship between trails in the forest and both the abundance and species diversity of caterpillars within and among forest fragments. Conversely, caterpillar presence was not related to the presence of favorable host trees at a given quadrat. We suggest that the negative effect of trails may be due to increased predation pressure in trailside habitat and to conditions that make trailside habitat less preferable for oviposition. These results underscore the importance of managing trails to limit the amount of intra-forest disturbance experienced in important forest fragment remnants.     

Limited dispersal by the rare scarce heath butterfly—potential consequences for population persistence

Dispersal between habitat patches may be important for the long-term persistence of populations. We conducted a mark–release–recapture study and analysed the dispersal pattern in the scarce heath butterfly inhabiting a network of suitable habitat patches using stepwise logistic regression (SLR) and the Virtual Migration (VM) model. We also analysed the influence of different types of matrices. We found that the majority of the recaptured butterflies remained within the patch where they were originally caught. However, dispersal between patches did occur and both the SLR analysis and the VM model indicated that the migration pattern was significantly associated with patch area and its level of isolation. The SLR model also showed that there was a positive association between immigration rate and tree density, supporting earlier observations that this species prefers semi-open habitat. We discuss the use of SLR versus the VM model to analyse recapture data in dispersal studies. This system is not at equilibrium, as a number of the most important patches in the network are continuously being lost due to afforestation and a number of populations are facing deterministic extinction. This increases the risk of a chain reaction of local extinctions, which may cause a collapse of the whole system.