大熊猫能量和蛋白质营养需要研究进展及策略

本文在总结和分析大熊猫食性、食物选择、摄食量、组织器官和竹子中养分含量测定、养分消化代谢等研究数据的基础上,推测出大熊猫干物质摄入量、总能、消化能、粗蛋白和可消化粗蛋白需要量以及精料中赖氨酸的推荐水平。结合圈养大熊猫单位的饲喂方式和饲喂效果,该研究策略有助于确定圈养条件下大熊猫饲料的精粗比例、精料养分浓度和各养分之间的比例,为圈养大熊猫饲养标准的确立奠定基础。     

Environmental assessment of digestibility improvement factors applied in animal production

Background, Aims and Scope  

Many feed ingredients are not fully digested by livestock. However, the addition of digestibility-improving enzymes to the feed can improve the absorption of e.g. energy and protein and thereby enhance the nutrient value of the feed. Feed production is a major source of environmental impacts in animal production, and it is obvious to assume that enzyme supplementation can help to reduce the environmental impact of animal production. The purpose of the study is, therefore, to assess and compare the environmental burdens of the supplements and compare them with the savings made when enzymes are used in animal production. The properties of enzymes vary considerably and the study takes as its starting point a particular enzyme product, Ronozyme WX CT. Ronozyme WX CT is a xylanase which depolymerises xylans (a group of dietary fibres found in cereal cell walls) into smaller units. The product is a widely accepted means of improving the energy value and the protein digestibility of pig and poultry feed. The study relates to Ronozyme WX CT used for fattening pigs produced in Denmark.     

Continuing high prevalence of VanA-type vancomycin-resistant enterococci on Norwegian poultry farms three years after avoparcin was banned

Avoparcin was used as a feed additive in Norwegian broiler and turkey production from 1986 until 1995. It was banned due to the selection of VanA-type vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) in animal husbandry and to reduce the potential for human exposure to VRE. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of VRE carriage in Norwegian poultry farmers and their poultry three years after avoparcin was banned. Corresponding faecal samples from poultry and humans on farms where avoparcin had previously been used (exposed farms, n = 73) and farms where avoparcin had never been used (unexposed farms, n = 74) were analysed for the presence of VRE. For each farm, one sample from the poultry house and one sample from the farmer were obtained. VRE were isolated from 72 of 73 (99%) and eight of 74 (11%) poultry samples from exposed and unexposed farms, respectively. VRE were isolated from 13 of 73 (18%) and one of 74 (1%) farmer samples from exposed and unexposed farms, respectively. All VRE isolates were highly resistant to vancomycin and possessed the vanA gene, as shown by PCR. The high prevalence of VRE is in accordance with previous Norwegian studies, and shows a remarkable stability of the VanA resistance determinant in an apparently non-selective environment.     

Antibiotics in animal feed and their role in resistance development

Animals and humans constitute overlapping reservoirs of resistance, and consequently use of antimicrobials in animals can impact on public health. For example, the occurrence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in food-animals is associated with the use of avoparcin, a glycopeptide antibiotic used as a feed additive for the growth promotion of animals. Vancomycin-resistant enterococci and vancomycin resistance determinants can therefore spread from animals to humans. The bans on avoparcin and other antibiotics as growth promoters in the EU have provided scientists with a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of the withdrawal of a major antimicrobial selective pressure on the occurrence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. The data shows that although the levels of resistance in animals and food, and consequently in humans, has been markedly reduced after the termination of use, the effects on animal health and productivity have been very minor.     

Vergleich der Kot- und Harn-N-Trennung in 2 verschiedenen Ratten-Stoffwechselkäfigsystemen

The energy availability from the feedstuffs and the energy requirement of animals are characterized by the metabolizable energy. The metabolizable energy of the feed (feedstuff, ration) is interpreted as potential energy.

For comparative analyses within and between animal species with regard to the energetic feed value of single feedstuffs the parameter “relative fat retention effect” is introduced.

The metabolizable energy of a ration is estimated in consideration of live weight and protein production (protein in body gain and egg). The energy requirement is calculated factorial ‐ as a rule by the partial utilization of metabolizable energy for partial performances (k_f, k _p, k _o) in connection with the level and kind of partial performance; k _m is not used in the system.

The proposed system of energetic feed evaluation is available as “computer variant” as well as “manual variant”. The computer programme is fitted first of all to application in research and teaching. (The complete documentation of the proposal for energetic feed evaluation for fowls including a diskette for using of the computer programme for scientific application can be claimed in limited extend from the author.)     

Occurrence and relatedness of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in animals, humans, and the environment in different European regions

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) in Europe are thought to have emerged partly due to the use of the glycopeptide avoparcin in animal husbandry. We compared the occurrence of VRE in geographical regions of Europe in which until 1997 large amounts of avoparcin were used (Spain, United Kingdom, and Denmark) with the occurrence of VRE in Sweden, where avoparcin was banned in 1986. We also studied the relatedness between VRE strains from different regions and habitats. In total, 2,580 samples were collected from humans, animals, and the environment (soil, sewage, recipient water). VRE resistant to 20 microg/ml vancomycin were identified in 8.2% of the samples and were found most frequently in raw and treated urban sewage samples (means, 71% and 36% of the samples, respectively), pig manure (17%), and hospital sewage (16%). The proportions of VRE-positive sewage samples were similar in Sweden, Spain, and the United Kingdom, whereas pig feces and manure were more often positive in Spain than in Sweden (30% versus 1%). Most VRE were Enterococcus faecium carrying vanA, and computerized biochemical phenotyping of the isolates of different ecological origins showed a high degree of polyclonality. In conclusion, it seems that animal-associated VRE probably reflect the former use of avoparcin in animal production, whereas VRE in human-associated samples may be a result of antibiotic use in hospitals. Since there seems to be a reservoir of the resistance genes in all countries studied, precautions must be taken to limit the use of antibiotics and antibiotic-like feed additives.     

Review: Insects and former foodstuffs for upgrading food waste biomasses/streams to feed ingredients for farm animals

The increasing global need to find alternative protein/energy sources has triggered research in the field of non-conventional feed ingredients, with insects and former foodstuffs being the most promising. Insects contain high level of protein and fat, whereas former foodstuffs contain high energy in the form of carbohydrates and fats; therefore, both should be considered as promising alternative feed ingredients for livestock production. In addition to the nutritional value, they also represent a way by which food waste biomasses/streams can be upgraded to valuable feed ingredients. This review outlines the main nutritional and safety issues of insects and former foodstuffs, and also considers the legal framework involved. The importance of the type of insect metamorphosis and tailored substrates that could lead to the production of a premium feed is also described. This is also the first time that a review discusses the nutritional quality of former foodstuffs. Energy and the main nutrient content of former foodstuff are compared with the composition of common cereals as the principal energy sources in animal feed. For both ingredients a critical review of the safety issues is provided. Based on the current data available, both insects and former foodstuffs have an excellent potential use as alternative feed ingredients for livestock production. When produced in line with the criteria set by major feed/food authorities, they are characterized by high quality and safety standards. This makes them comparable to other feed materials and ingredients currently available on the market, although their full nutritional, functional, safety and sustainability evaluation cannot be considered complete.     

A model predicting the seasonal dynamics of intake and production for suckler cows and their calves fed indoors or at pasture

To investigate the dynamics of animal intake and production in grassland-based suckler systems, we constructed a model for suckling cows with their calves. The model calculates on a day-to-day basis the selective intake at pasture and the animal production (weight, condition, milk production) in response to energy intake. The model dynamically applies the feed evaluation systems developed by the INRA: the “cattle fill unit” system to predict forage intake, and the “feed unit” system to predict net energy requirements and supply. To predict intake at pasture, we adapted the cattle fill unit system by adding effects of herbage availability and sward structural composition on the amount and quality of intake.At pasture, the grazeable herbage is divided into structural components characterized by their biomass and digestibility. The model predicts the composition of the diet, assuming that the most digestible and abundant components of herbage are preferred. The amount of herbage ingested depends on the animal profile, the digestibility of the diet and the amount of herbage available. Sward depletion by animal intake at pasture has feedback effects on herbage growth and quality, which can be calculated by a vegetation model. Animal production is calculated based on net energy balance, which is the difference between net energy intake and net energy requirements for maintenance (for cow and calf), gestation and lactation (for the cow). The net energy balance determines weight and condition gain or loss, and – after 3 months of lactation – influences milk production the following day. Changes in weight and condition have feedback effects on energy requirements and intake capacity.Sensitivity analysis on the input values highlighted the importance of forage digestibility for the production of cows and calves. Calf growth was also driven over 3 months old by calf live weight, and under 3 months old by the milk production of the cow. The model's response to stocking rate during the grazing down of a paddock was consistent with current knowledge. The model was validated against experimental data for cows fed indoors or at pasture, at different feed allowances. Model predictions were precise for the digestibility of intake and for live weight (error represents 2–3% of the average observed value), satisfactory for dry matter intake, body condition score and milk production at the beginning of lactation (error represents 10% of the average observed value), and very imprecise for milk production after the third month of lactation (error represents 23% of the average observed value), but the latter had small consequences on calf live weight.     

Occurrence and Relatedness of Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci in Animals, Humans, and the Environment in Different European Regions

Vancomycin-resistant enterococcci (VRE) in Europe are thought to have emerged partly due to the use of the glycopeptide avoparcin in animal husbandry. We compared the occurrence of VRE in geographical regions of Europe in which until 1997 large amounts of avoparcin were used (Spain, United Kingdom, and Denmark) with the occurrence of VRE in Sweden, where avoparcin was banned in 1986. We also studied the relatedness between VRE strains from different regions and habitats. In total, 2,580 samples were collected from humans, animals, and the environment (soil, sewage, recipient water). VRE resistant to 20 μg/ml vancomycin were identified in 8.2% of the samples and were found most frequently in raw and treated urban sewage samples (means, 71% and 36% of the samples, respectively), pig manure (17%), and hospital sewage (16%). The proportions of VRE-positive sewage samples were similar in Sweden, Spain, and the United Kingdom, whereas pig feces and manure were more often positive in Spain than in Sweden (30% versus 1%). Most VRE were Enterococcus faecium carrying vanA, and computerized biochemical phenotyping of the isolates of different ecological origins showed a high degree of polyclonality. In conclusion, it seems that animal-associated VRE probably reflect the former use of avoparcin in animal production, whereas VRE in human-associated samples may be a result of antibiotic use in hospitals. Since there seems to be a reservoir of the resistance genes in all countries studied, precautions must be taken to limit the use of antibiotics and antibiotic-like feed additives.     

Nathan Zuntz and 100 Years Non-Protein-Nitrogen Research in Berlin

The advantages and disadvantages of metabolisable and net energy as parameters of energetic feed evaluation are discussed. For a global comprehensive standardisation of the energetic feed evaluation, the metabolisable energy (ME) will have a preference. The principles of an energetic feed evaluation system with ME as parameter are explained according to which the subsystems for all species of animals should be worked out uniformly. The subsystems for the most important farm animals integrate themselves in addition to ME for predicting the energy and food needs of the animal also the net energy (NE) by taking a standard feedstuff to characterise the relative energetic feed value of the feedstuffs for one or more partial performances of the animal species concerned.     

Implications of high animal by-product feed inputs in life cycle assessments of farmed Atlantic salmon

Purpose

Animal by-products may be increasingly relied upon to satisfy nutritional requirements of salmonids and other fed aquaculture species as demand for fish meal outpaces supply. Previous studies of aquaculture supply chains have included either no animal by-product inputs or small inputs of poultry by-products. Australian Atlantic salmon production includes high use of feed inputs derived from poultry and mammalian by-products and provides a case study to explore the environmental implications and methodological challenges associated with these inputs.

Methods

Life cycle assessment was carried out on a vertically integrated salmon production system in Tasmania, representing approximately 40% of Australian Atlantic salmon production. The system included feed production, smolt/juvenile production, farm grow-out, processing and packaging, and distribution of head-on gutted salmon to market. Impacts from animal production were allocated to by-products on a gross chemical energy basis. Scenario analyses were conducted to determine the extent to which changes in feed conversion ratio, feed composition, and other variables affect results. Sensitivity analysis was carried out on the allocation method for fishery and animal by-products.

Results and discussion

Environmental impacts associated with Tasmanian salmon fed high quantities of animal by-products were markedly higher than those of previously assessed systems. All impacts were driven by feed production with the exception of eutrophication potential, which was driven equally by feed production and nutrient loss during grow-out. Animal by-products accounted for the majority of all impacts from feed production. Adopting a feed composition without animal by-products would result in dramatic improvements, including a 70% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. Allocation choice had a clear effect on results, with biophysical allocation methods placing much more burden from animal production on fed systems than economic or no-impact allocation methods.

Conclusions

The use of animal by-product inputs in aquaculture feeds has a substantial effect on the environmental profile of farmed salmon products. The magnitude of this effect is dependent on the allocation method chosen for the treatment of products and by-products in upstream systems. The high impact of such systems recognizes the environmental cost of future aquaculture production that may rely more on intensive and high-impact animal production inputs as more efficient fishery inputs become increasingly limited relative to demand.

     

Updating maintenance energy requirement for the current sheep flocks and the associated effect of nutritional and animal factors

There is evidence indicating that using the current UK energy feeding system to ration the present sheep flocks may underestimate their nutrient requirements. The objective of the present study was to address this issue by developing updated maintenance energy requirements for the current sheep flocks and evaluating if these requirements were influenced by a range of dietary and animal factors. Data (n = 131) used were collated from five experiments with sheep (5 to 18 months old and 29.0 to 69.8 kg BW) undertaken at the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute of the UK from 2013 to 2017. The trials were designed to evaluate the effects of dietary type, genotype, physiological stage and sex on nutrient utilization and energetic efficiencies. Energy intake and output data were measured in individual calorimeter chambers. Energy balance (E_g) was calculated as the difference between gross energy intake and a sum of fecal energy, urine energy, methane energy and heat production. Data were analysed using the restricted maximum likelihood analysis to develop the linear relationship between E_g or heat production and metabolizable energy (ME) intake, with the effects of a range of dietary and animal factors removed. The net energy (NE_m) and ME (ME_m) requirements for maintenance derived from the linear relationship between E_g and ME intake were 0.358 and 0.486 MJ/kg BW^0.75, respectively, which are 40% to 53% higher than those recommended in energy feeding systems currently used to ration sheep in the USA and the UK. Further analysis of the current dataset revealed that concentrate supplement, sire type or physiological stage had no significant effect on the derived NE_m values. However, female lambs had a significantly higher NE_m (0.352 v. 0.306 or 0.288 MJ/kg BW^0.75) or ME_m (0.507 v. 0.441 or 0.415 MJ/kg BW^0.75) than those for male or castrated lambs. The present results indicate that using present energy feeding systems in the UK developed over 40 years ago to ration the current sheep flocks could underestimate maintenance energy requirements. There is an urgent need to update these systems to reflect the higher metabolic rates of the current sheep flocks.     

Tinted Semi‐Transparent Solar Panels Allow Concurrent Production of Crops and Electricity on the Same Cropland

Agrivoltaics describes concurrent agricultural production of crops and photovoltaic generation of electricity on the same cropland. By using tinted semi‐transparent solar panels, this study introduces a novel element to transform the concept of agrivoltaics from just solar‐sharing to selective utilization of different light wavelengths. Agrivoltaic growth of basil and spinach is tested. When compared with classical agriculture, and based on the feed‐in‐tariff of the experimental location, agrivoltaic co‐generation of biomass and electricity is calculated to result in an estimated financial gross gain up to +2.5% for basil and +35% for spinach. Marketable biomass yields do not change significantly for basil, while a statistically significant loss is observed for spinach. This is accompanied by a relative increase in the protein content for both plants grown under agrivoltaic conditions. Agrivoltaics implemented with tinted solar panels improve the biomass production per unit amount of solar radiation up to 68%, with up to 63% increase in the ratio of leaf and stem biomass to root. Agrivoltaics can enrich the portfolio of farmers, mitigate risks associated with climate, and vastly enhance global photovoltaics capacity without compromising agricultural production.     

Re-defining efficiency of feed use by livestock

Livestock, particularly ruminants, can eat a wider range of biomass than humans. In the drive for greater efficiency, intensive systems of livestock production have evolved to compete with humans for high-energy crops such as cereals. Feeds consumed by livestock were analysed in terms of the quantities used and efficiency of conversion of grassland, human-edible ('edible') crops and crop by-products into milk, meat and eggs, using the United Kingdom as an example of a developed livestock industry. Some 42 million tonnes of forage dry matter were consumed from 2008 to 2009 by the UK ruminant livestock population of which 0.7 was grazed pasture and 0.3 million tonnes was conserved forage. In addition, almost 13 million tonnes of raw material concentrate feeds were used in the UK animal feed industry from 2008 to 2009 of which cereal grains comprised 5.3 and soyabean meal 1.9 million tonnes. The proportion of edible feed in typical UK concentrate formulations ranged from 0.36 for milk production to 0.75 for poultry meat production. Example systems of livestock production were used to calculate feed conversion ratios (FCR - feed input per unit of fresh product). FCR for concentrate feeds was lowest for milk at 0.27 and for the meat systems ranged from 2.3 for poultry meat to 8.8 for cereal beef. Differences in FCR between systems of meat production were smaller when efficiency was calculated on an edible input/output basis, where spring-calving/grass finishing upland suckler beef and lowland lamb production were more efficient than pig and poultry meat production. With the exception of milk and upland suckler beef, FCR for edible feed protein into edible animal protein were >1.0. Edible protein/animal protein FCR of 1.0 may be possible by replacing cereal grain and soyabean meal with cereal by-products in concentrate formulations. It is concluded that by accounting for the proportions of human-edible and inedible feeds used in typical livestock production systems, a more realistic estimate of efficiency can be made for comparisons between systems.     

Environmental assessment of Ronozyme<Superscript>®</Superscript> P5000 CT phytase as an alternative to inorganic phosphate supplementation to pig feed used in intensive pig production

Goal, Scope and Background

Ronozyme^® P5000 CT is an industrially produced enzyme product (phytase) which is able to degrade naturally occurring phytate in animal feed and release the phytate’s content of phosphorus for pig’s growth. Ronozyme P5000 CT (hereafter called Ronozyme Phytase) can be used as an alternative to inorganic phosphorus supplementation to feed and the study addresses the environmental implications of substituting inorganic phosphorus with Ronozyme Phytase in intensive pig production in Denmark.

Methods

Life cycle assessment is used as an analytical tool, and modelling of the two considered systems is facilitated in SimaPro 6.0 software. The study addresses changes induced by switching from the one alternative to the other, and all significant processes influenced by the change are included in the study.

Results and Conclusions

Application of Ronozyme Phytase in intensive pig production is justified by major advantages in terms of avoided contributions to global warming, acidification, photochemical ozone formation and particularly nutrient enrichment and by significant energy savings and particularly phosphate savings. A single trade-off in terms of agricultural land use for enzyme production is small and unimportant unless use of agricultural land is given very large relative weight.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Hundreds of enzyme products are commercially available on the market today, each with a range of different applications. There are several indications that enzymes like Ronozyme Phytase can play an important role in a transition to a more sustainable society, and more focus should be addressed to the evolving enzyme technology in environmental research.

     

Proper energy evaluation of commercial laboratory animal diets based on digestibility and metabolizable energy values

The energy values of commercial laboratory animal diets have been customarily calculated by applying physiological fuel values (PFV) in this country. In order to ascertain accuracy of this application, apparent digestibility of crude protein, crude fat, nitrogen-free extracts (NFE), carbohydrate (NFE + crude fiber) and nitrogen-corrected metabolizable energy (MEn) of 10 commercial diets were determined using rats, dogs, rabbits and guinea pigs, respectively, and true digestibility of crude protein and crude fat of 12 feed ingredients was determined using rats. Apparent digestibility of the nutrients in the diets decreased with an increase in the crude fiber content of the diets. MEn values of the diets ranged between 2.18 and 3.75 kcal per g dry matter depending upon the crude fiber content of the diets. The energy values of the 10 diets calculated using PFV values of 4 kcal/g for protein and carbohydrate and 9 kcal/g for fat were compared with each MEn. The calculated values were 1.04 to 1.39 times higher than those of the respective MEn. All of the diets and most feed ingredients did not show high digestibility of nutrients assumed for the application of PFV. Therefore, it is concluded that application of PFV to the diets results in over-estimation of energy values and use of PFV for commercial laboratory diets in our country is not warranted. It is advisable to use MEn to evaluate energy value of commercial laboratory animal diets.     

中国小麦燃料乙醇的能量收益

分析了燃料乙醇能量收益问题提出的背景,国外有关燃料乙醇能量收益研究的最新进展及国内研究现状,采用全生命周期分析方法,计算了小麦燃料乙醇净能量值和能量产投比,对中国小麦燃料乙醇的能量收益进行了评价。主要结论有:如不考虑副产品能量价值,旧工艺和新工艺的NEV分别为-17022MJ/t燃料乙醇和-11778MJ/t燃料乙醇,R值分别是0.64和0.72;如考虑副产品能量价值,旧工艺和新工艺的NEV值分别为2271MJ/t燃料乙醇和11249MJ/t燃料乙醇,R值分别是1.05和1.27,从能源经济性角度看,旧工艺和新工艺的能量收益已是正效益,且新工艺的能量收益显著提高;与美国玉米燃料乙醇生产相比,如考虑副产品能量价值,新工艺和美国玉米燃料乙醇的NEV分别为11249MJ/t燃料乙醇和7457MJ/t燃料乙醇,R值分别是1.27和1.34。由于小麦转化率要低于玉米,因而小麦燃料乙醇的R值会低于玉米燃料乙醇。中国小麦燃料乙醇生产(新工艺)NEV大于美国玉米燃料乙醇的原因在于:中国小麦燃料乙醇副产品综合利用水平(23027MJ/t燃料乙醇)已明显优于美国玉米燃料乙醇(5078MJ/t燃料乙醇)。     

Direct measures of mechanical energy for knife mill size reduction of switchgrass, wheat straw, and corn stover

Lengthy straw/stalk of biomass may not be directly fed into grinders such as hammer mills and disc refiners. Hence, biomass needs to be preprocessed using coarse grinders like a knife mill to allow for efficient feeding in refiner mills without bridging and choking. Size reduction mechanical energy was directly measured for switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), wheat straw (Triticum aestivum L.), and corn stover (Zea mays L.) in an instrumented knife mill. Direct power inputs were determined for different knife mill screen openings from 12.7 to 50.8 mm, rotor speeds between 250 and 500 rpm, and mass feed rates from 1 to 11 kg/min. Overall accuracy of power measurement was calculated to be ±0.003 kW. Total specific energy (kWh/Mg) was defined as size reduction energy to operate mill with biomass. Effective specific energy was defined as the energy that can be assumed to reach the biomass. The difference is parasitic or no-load energy of mill. Total specific energy for switchgrass, wheat straw, and corn stover chopping increased with knife mill speed, whereas, effective specific energy decreased marginally for switchgrass and increased for wheat straw and corn stover. Total and effective specific energy decreased with an increase in screen size for all the crops studied. Total specific energy decreased with increase in mass feed rate, but effective specific energy increased for switchgrass and wheat straw, and decreased for corn stover at increased feed rate. For knife mill screen size of 25.4 mm and optimum speed of 250 rpm, optimum feed rates were 7.6, 5.8, and 4.5 kg/min for switchgrass, wheat straw, and corn stover, respectively, and the corresponding total specific energies were 7.57, 10.53, and 8.87 kWh/Mg and effective specific energies were 1.27, 1.50, and 0.24 kWh/Mg for switchgrass, wheat straw, and corn stover, respectively. Energy utilization ratios were calculated as 16.8%, 14.3%, and 2.8% for switchgrass, wheat straw, and corn stover, respectively. These data will be useful for preparing the feed material for subsequent fine grinding operations and designing new mills.     

A global foresight on food crop needs for livestock

Increasingly more studies are raising concerns about the increasing consumption of meat and the increasing amount of crops (cereals and oilseeds in particular) used to feed animals and that could be used to feed people. The evolution of this amount is very sensitive to human diets and to the productivity of feed. This article provides a 2050 foresight on the necessary increase in crop production for food and feed in three contrasting scenarios: diets with no animal products; current diets in each main region of the world; and the average diet of developed countries extended to the whole world. We develop empirical aggregate production models for seven world regions, using 43 years and 150 countries. These models realistically account for the contribution of feed from food plants (i.e. plants that would be edible for humans) and of grassland to animal products. We find that the amount of edible crops necessary to feed livestock in 2050 is between 8% and 117% of today's need. The latter figure is lower than that in comparable foresight studies because our models take into account empirical features occurring at an aggregate level, such as the increasing share of animal production from regions using less crop product per unit of animal product. In particular, the expected increase in animal production is estimated to occur mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, where the amount of feed from food crops required per unit of animal product proves to be lower than that in other areas. This 117% increase indicates that crop production would have to double if the whole world adopted the present diet of developed countries.