Extending the modified bayesian information criterion (mBIC) to dense markers and multiple interval mapping

SUMMARY: The modified version of Bayesian Information Criterion (mBIC) is a relatively simple model selection procedure that can be used when locating multiple interacting quantitative trait loci (QTL). Our earlier work demonstrated the statistical properties of mBIC for situations where the average genetic map interval is at least 5 cM. In this work mBIC is adapted to genome searches based on a dense map and, more importantly, to the situation where consecutive QTL and interactions are located by multiple interval mapping. Easy to use formulas for the extended mBIC are given. A simulation study, as well as the analysis of real data, confirm the good properties of the extended mBIC.     

Bayesian methods for quantitative trait loci mapping based on model selection: approximate analysis using the Bayesian information criterion.

We describe an approximate method for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) based on model selection from multiple regression models with trait values regressed on marker genotypes, using a modification of the easily calculated Bayesian information criterion to estimate the posterior probability of models with various subsets of markers as variables. The BIC-delta criterion, with the parameter delta increasing the penalty for additional variables in a model, is further modified to incorporate prior information, and missing values are handled by multiple imputation. Marginal probabilities for model sizes are calculated, and the posterior probability of nonzero model size is interpreted as the posterior probability of existence of a QTL linked to one or more markers. The method is demonstrated on analysis of associations between wood density and markers on two linkage groups in Pinus radiata. Selection bias, which is the bias that results from using the same data to both select the variables in a model and estimate the coefficients, is shown to be a problem for commonly used non-Bayesian methods for QTL mapping, which do not average over alternative possible models that are consistent with the data.     

A unified Markov chain Monte Carlo framework for mapping multiple quantitative trait loci

In this article, a unified Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework is proposed to identify multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) for complex traits in experimental designs, based on a composite space representation of the problem that has fixed dimension. The proposed unified approach includes the existing Bayesian QTL mapping methods using reversible jump MCMC algorithm as special cases. We also show that a variety of Bayesian variable selection methods using Gibbs sampling can be applied to the composite model space for mapping multiple QTL. The unified framework not only results in some new algorithms, but also gives useful insight into some of the important factors governing the performance of Gibbs sampling and reversible jump for mapping multiple QTL. Finally, we develop strategies to improve the performance of MCMC algorithms.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci under the identity-by-descent-based variance component model

Variance component analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) is an important strategy of genetic mapping for complex traits in humans. The method is robust because it can handle an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary modes of gene actions. The variance component method is usually implemented using the proportion of alleles with identity-by-descent (IBD) shared by relatives. As a result, information about marker linkage phases in the parents is not required. The method has been studied extensively under either the maximum-likelihood framework or the sib-pair regression paradigm. However, virtually all investigations are limited to normally distributed traits under a single QTL model. In this study, we develop a Bayes method to map multiple QTL. We also extend the Bayesian mapping procedure to identify QTL responsible for the variation of complex binary diseases in humans under a threshold model. The method can also treat the number of QTL as a parameter and infer its posterior distribution. We use the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the posterior distributions of parameters of interest. The Bayesian mapping procedure ends with an estimation of the joint posterior distribution of the number of QTL and the locations and variances of the identified QTL. Utilities of the method are demonstrated using a simulated population consisting of multiple full-sib families.     

Locating multiple interacting quantitative trait Loci using rank-based model selection

In previous work, a modified version of the Bayesian information criterion (mBIC) was proposed to locate multiple interacting quantitative trait loci (QTL). Simulation studies and real data analysis demonstrate good properties of the mBIC in situations where the error distribution is approximately normal. However, as with other standard techniques of QTL mapping, the performance of the mBIC strongly deteriorates when the trait distribution is heavy tailed or when the data contain a significant proportion of outliers. In the present article, we propose a suitable robust version of the mBIC that is based on ranks. We investigate the properties of the resulting method on the basis of theoretical calculations, computer simulations, and a real data analysis. Our simulation results show that for the sample sizes typically used in QTL mapping, the methods based on ranks are almost as efficient as standard techniques when the data are normal and are much better when the data come from some heavy-tailed distribution or include a proportion of outliers.     

Quantifying evidence for candidate gene polymorphisms: Bayesian analysis combining sequence-specific and quantitative trait loci colocation information

We calculate posterior probabilities for candidate genes as a function of genomic location. Posterior probabilities for quantitative trait loci (QTL) presence in a small interval are calculated using a Bayesian model-selection approach based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and used to combine QTL colocation information with sequence-specific evidence, e.g., from differential expression and/or association studies. Our method takes into account uncertainty in estimation of number and locations of QTL and estimated map position. Posterior probabilities for QTL presence were calculated for simulated data with n = 100, 300, and 1200 QTL progeny and compared with interval mapping and composite-interval mapping. Candidate genes that mapped to QTL regions had substantially larger posterior probabilities. Among candidates with a given Bayes factor, those that map near a QTL are more promising for further investigation with association studies and functional testing or for use in marker-aided selection. The BIC is shown to correspond very closely to Bayes factors for linear models with a nearly noninformative Zellner prior for the simulated QTL data with n > or = 100. It is shown how to modify the BIC to use a subjective prior for the QTL effects.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo for mapping a quantitative trait locus in outbred populations

A Bayesian approach is presented for mapping a quantitative trait locus (QTL) using the 'Fernando and Grossman' multivariate Normal approximation to QTL inheritance. For this model, a Bayesian implementation that includes QTL position is problematic because standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms do not mix, i.e. the QTL position gets stuck in one marker interval. This is because of the dependence of the covariance structure for the QTL effects on the adjacent markers and may be typical of the 'Fernando and Grossman' model. A relatively new MCMC technique, simulated tempering, allows mixing and so makes possible inferences about QTL position based on marginal posterior probabilities. The model was implemented for estimating variance ratios and QTL position using a continuous grid of allowed positions and was applied to simulated data of a standard granddaughter design. The results showed a smooth mixing of QTL position after implementation of the simulated tempering sampler. In this implementation, map distance between QTL and its flanking markers was artificially stretched to reduce the dependence of markers and covariance. The method generalizes easily to more complicated applications and can ultimately contribute to QTL mapping in complex, heterogeneous, human, animal or plant populations.     

Marker pair selection for mapping quantitative trait loci

Mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) for backcross and F(2) populations may be set up as a multiple linear regression problem, where marker types are the regressor variables. It has been shown previously that flanking markers absorb all information on isolated QTL. Therefore, selection of pairs of markers flanking QTL is useful as a direct approach to QTL detection. Alternatively, selected pairs of flanking markers can be used as cofactors in composite interval mapping (CIM). Overfitting is a serious problem, especially if the number of regressor variables is large. We suggest a procedure denoted as marker pair selection (MPS) that uses model selection criteria for multiple linear regression. Markers enter the model in pairs, which reduces the number of models to be considered, thus alleviating the problem of overfitting and increasing the chances of detecting QTL. MPS entails an exhaustive search per chromosome to maximize the chance of finding the best-fitting models. A simulation study is conducted to study the merits of different model selection criteria for MPS. On the basis of our results, we recommend the Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC) for use in practice.     

Bayesian shrinkage estimation of quantitative trait loci parameters

Mapping multiple QTL is a typical problem of variable selection in an oversaturated model because the potential number of QTL can be substantially larger than the sample size. Currently, model selection is still the most effective approach to mapping multiple QTL, although further research is needed. An alternative approach to analyzing an oversaturated model is the shrinkage estimation in which all candidate variables are included in the model but their estimated effects are forced to shrink toward zero. In contrast to the usual shrinkage estimation where all model effects are shrunk by the same factor, we develop a Bayesian method that allows the shrinkage factor to vary across different effects. The new shrinkage method forces marker intervals that contain no QTL to have estimated effects close to zero whereas intervals containing notable QTL have estimated effects subject to virtually no shrinkage. We demonstrate the method using both simulated and real data for QTL mapping. A simulation experiment with 500 backcross (BC) individuals showed that the method can localize closely linked QTL and QTL with effects as small as 1% of the phenotypic variance of the trait. The method was also used to map QTL responsible for wound healing in a family of a (MRL/MPJ x SJL/J) cross with 633 F(2) mice derived from two inbred lines.     

On locating multiple interacting quantitative trait loci in intercross designs

A modified version (mBIC) of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) has been previously proposed for backcross designs to locate multiple interacting quantitative trait loci. In this article, we extend the method to intercross designs. We also propose two modifications of the mBIC. First we investigate a two-stage procedure in the spirit of empirical Bayes methods involving an adaptive (i.e., data-based) choice of the penalty. The purpose of the second modification is to increase the power of detecting epistasis effects at loci where main effects have already been detected. We investigate the proposed methods by computer simulations under a wide range of realistic genetic models, with nonequidistant marker spacings and missing data. In the case of large intermarker distances we use imputations according to Haley and Knott regression to reduce the distance between searched positions to not more than 10 cM. Haley and Knott regression is also used to handle missing data. The simulation study as well as real data analyses demonstrates good properties of the proposed method of QTL detection.     

Empirical Bayesian elastic net for multiple quantitative trait locus mapping

In multiple quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, a high-dimensional sparse regression model is usually employed to account for possible multiple linked QTLs. The QTL model may include closely linked and thus highly correlated genetic markers, especially when high-density marker maps are used in QTL mapping because of the advancement in sequencing technology. Although existing algorithms, such as Lasso, empirical Bayesian Lasso (EBlasso) and elastic net (EN) are available to infer such QTL models, more powerful methods are highly desirable to detect more QTLs in the presence of correlated QTLs. We developed a novel empirical Bayesian EN (EBEN) algorithm for multiple QTL mapping that inherits the efficiency of our previously developed EBlasso algorithm. Simulation results demonstrated that EBEN provided higher power of detection and almost the same false discovery rate compared with EN and EBlasso. Particularly, EBEN can identify correlated QTLs that the other two algorithms may fail to identify. When analyzing a real dataset, EBEN detected more effects than EN and EBlasso. EBEN provides a useful tool for inferring high-dimensional sparse model in multiple QTL mapping and other applications. An R software package ‘EBEN'' implementing the EBEN algorithm is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).     

Simultaneous fine mapping of multiple closely linked quantitative trait Loci using combined linkage disequilibrium and linkage with a general pedigree

Within a small region (e.g., <10 cM), there can be multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying phenotypes of a trait. Simultaneous fine mapping of closely linked QTL needs an efficient tool to remove confounded shade effects among QTL within such a small region. We propose a variance component method using combined linkage disequilibrium (LD) and linkage information and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model selection. QTL identity-by-descent (IBD) coefficients between individuals are estimated by a hybrid MCMC combining the random walk and the meiosis Gibbs sampler. These coefficients are used in a mixed linear model and an empirical Bayesian procedure combines residual maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate QTL effects and a reversible jump MCMC that samples the number of QTL and the posterior QTL intensities across the tested region. Note that two MCMC processes are used, i.e., an (internal) MCMC for IBD estimation and an (external) MCMC for model selection. In a simulation study, the use of the multiple-QTL model clearly removes the shade effects between three closely linked QTL located at 1.125, 3.875, and 7.875 cM across the region of 10 cM, using 40 markers at 0.25-cM intervals. It is shown that the use of combined LD and linkage information gives much more useful information compared to using linkage information alone for both single- and multiple-QTL analyses. When using a lower marker density (11 markers at 1-cM intervals), the signal of the second QTL can disappear. Extreme values of past effective size (resulting in extreme levels of LD) decrease the mapping accuracy.     

Study on mapping Quantitative Trait Loci for animal complex binary traits using Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits,which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information,using conventional statisti-cal methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits,which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence,Bayesian estimates of all interested vari-ables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study,utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several ani-mal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model,three samplers basing on MCMC,including Gibbs sampling,Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC,were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases,the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be im-proved. When the true QTL has a small effect,using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.     

Study on mapping Quantitative Trait Loci for animal complex binary traits using Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits, which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information, using conventional statistical methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits, which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence, Bayesian estimates of all interested variables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study, utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several animal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model, three samplers basing on MCMC, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC, were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases, the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be improved. When the true QTL has a small effect, using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.     

Bayesian analysis of genetic architecture of quantitative trait using data of crosses of multiple inbred lines

Using the data of crosses of multiple of inbred lines for mapping QTL can increase QTL detecting power compared with only cross of two inbred lines. Although many fixed-effect model methods have been proposed to analyze such data, they are largely based on one-QTL model or main effect model, and the interaction effects between QTL are always neglected. However, effectively separating the interaction effects from the residual error can increase the statistical power. In this article, we both extended the novel Bayesian model selection method and Bayesian shrinkage estimation approaches to multiple inbred line crosses. With two extensions, interacting QTL are effectively detected with high solution; in addition, the posterior variances for both main effects and interaction effects are also subjected to full Bayesian estimate, which is more optimal than two step approach involved in maximum-likelihood. A series of simulation experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the performance of the methods. The computer program written in FORTRAN language is freely available on request.     

Optimal haplotype structure for linkage disequilibrium-based fine mapping of quantitative trait loci using identity by descent

A linkage disequilibrium-based method for fine mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) has been described that uses similarity between individuals' marker haplotypes to determine if QTL alleles are identical by descent (IBD) to model covariances among individuals' QTL alleles for a mixed linear model. Mapping accuracy with this method was found to be sensitive to the number of linked markers that was included in the haplotype when fitting the model at a putative position of the QTL. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal haplotype structure for this IBD-based method for fine mapping a QTL in a previously identified QTL region. Haplotypes consisting of 1, 2, 4, 6, or all 10 available markers were fit as a "sliding window" across the QTL region under ideal and nonideal simulated population conditions. It was found that using haplotypes of 4 or 6 markers as a sliding "window" resulted in the greatest mapping accuracy under nearly all conditions, although the true IBD state at a putative QTL position was most accurately predicted by IBD probabilities obtained using all markers. Using 4 or 6 markers resulted in greater discrimination of IBD probabilities between positions while maintaining sufficient accuracy of IBD probabilities to detect the QTL. Fitting IBD probabilities on the basis of a single marker resulted in the worst mapping accuracy under all conditions because it resulted in poor accuracy of IBD probabilities. In conclusion, for fine mapping using IBD methods, marker information must be used in a manner that results in sensitivity of IBD probabilities to the putative position of the QTL while maintaining sufficient accuracy of IBD probabilities to detect the QTL. Contrary to expectation, use of haplotypes of 4-6 markers to derive IBD probabilities, rather than all available markers, best fits these criteria. Thus for populations similar to those simulated here, optimal mapping accuracy for this IBD-based fine-mapping method is obtained with a haplotype structure including a subset of all available markers.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci for complex binary traits

A complex binary trait is a character that has a dichotomous expression but with a polygenic genetic background. Mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) for such traits is difficult because of the discrete nature and the reduced variation in the phenotypic distribution. Bayesian statistics are proved to be a powerful tool for solving complicated genetic problems, such as multiple QTL with nonadditive effects, and have been successfully applied to QTL mapping for continuous traits. In this study, we show that Bayesian statistics are particularly useful for mapping QTL for complex binary traits. We model the binary trait under the classical threshold model of quantitative genetics. The Bayesian mapping statistics are developed on the basis of the idea of data augmentation. This treatment allows an easy way to generate the value of a hypothetical underlying variable (called the liability) and a threshold, which in turn allow the use of existing Bayesian statistics. The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to simulate the posterior samples of all unknowns, including the number of QTL, the locations and effects of identified QTL, genotypes of each individual at both the QTL and markers, and eventually the liability of each individual. The Bayesian mapping ends with an estimation of the joint posterior distribution of the number of QTL and the locations and effects of the identified QTL. Utilities of the method are demonstrated using a simulated outbred full-sib family. A computer program written in FORTRAN language is freely available on request.     

Stochastic search variable selection for identifying multiple quantitative trait loci

In this article, we utilize stochastic search variable selection methodology to develop a Bayesian method for identifying multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) for complex traits in experimental designs. The proposed procedure entails embedding multiple regression in a hierarchical normal mixture model, where latent indicators for all markers are used to identify the multiple markers. The markers with significant effects can be identified as those with higher posterior probability included in the model. A simple and easy-to-use Gibbs sampler is employed to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns including the latent indicators, genetic effects for all markers, and other model parameters. The proposed method was evaluated using simulated data and illustrated using a real data set. The results demonstrate that the proposed method works well under typical situations of most QTL studies in terms of number of markers and marker density.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci for multiple complex traits with the use of variance components

Complex traits important for humans are often correlated phenotypically and genetically. Joint mapping of quantitative-trait loci (QTLs) for multiple correlated traits plays an important role in unraveling the genetic architecture of complex traits. Compared with single-trait analysis, joint mapping addresses more questions and has advantages for power of QTL detection and precision of parameter estimation. Some statistical methods have been developed to map QTLs underlying multiple traits, most of which are based on maximum-likelihood methods. We develop here a multivariate version of the Bayes methodology for joint mapping of QTLs, using the Markov chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We adopt a variance-components method to model complex traits in outbred populations (e.g., humans). The method is robust, can deal with an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary patterns of gene actions (such as additive and dominant), and allows for multiple phenotype data of various types in the joint analysis (e.g., multiple continuous traits and mixtures of continuous traits and discrete traits). Under a Bayesian framework, parameters--including the number of QTLs--are estimated on the basis of their marginal posterior samples, which are generated through two samplers, the Gibbs sampler and the reversible-jump MCMC. In addition, we calculate the Bayes factor related to each identified QTL, to test coincident linkage versus pleiotropy. The performance of our method is evaluated in simulations with full-sib families. The results show that our proposed Bayesian joint-mapping method performs well for mapping multiple QTLs in situations of either bivariate continuous traits or mixed data types. Compared with the analysis for each trait separately, Bayesian joint mapping improves statistical power, provides stronger evidence of QTL detection, and increases precision in estimation of parameter and QTL position. We also applied the proposed method to a set of real data and detected a coincident linkage responsible for determining bone mineral density and areal bone size of wrist in humans.     

Detection of multiple QTL with epistatic effects under a mixed inheritance model in an outbred population

A quantitative trait depends on multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) and on the interaction between two or more QTL, named epistasis. Several methods to detect multiple QTL in various types of design have been proposed, but most of these are based on the assumption that each QTL works independently and epistasis has not been explored sufficiently. The objective of the study was to propose an integrated method to detect multiple QTL with epistases using Bayesian inference via a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Since the mixed inheritance model is assumed and the deterministic algorithm to calculate the probabilities of QTL genotypes is incorporated in the method, this can be applied to an outbred population such as livestock. Additionally, we treated a pair of QTL as one variable in the Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm so that two QTL were able to be simultaneously added into or deleted from a model. As a result, both of the QTL can be detected, not only in cases where either of the two QTL has main effects and they have epistatic effects between each other, but also in cases where neither of the two QTL has main effects but they have epistatic effects. The method will help ascertain the complicated structure of quantitative traits.