The influence of freshwater inflows on spawning success and early growth of an estuarine resident fish species, Acanthopagrus butcheri

The influence of freshwater inflows and salinity on spawning success of black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Sparidae) was investigated over 2 years in a small estuary on the east coast of Tasmania, Australia. The individual spawning seasons experienced quite different freshwater inflows; 2004-2005 was characterized by low flows throughout the season whereas during 2005-2006 there were three relatively large discharge events in the first part of the season. Macroscopic gonad staging of adults was used to define the spawning season and daily increment analysis of otoliths from recently settled recruits was used to backcalculate spawning dates. Gonad staging indicated that adults were in spawning condition over a 3 to 4 month period during spring and summer. The timing and duration of successful spawning, however, differed markedly between years and was linked to the timing of freshwater inflows and salinity conditions, with successful spawning occurring during periods of low freshwater discharge and when salinities in the upper estuary were above c. 15. Growth rates of the recently settled recruits did not differ between years, nor did the timing of spawning within the season influence growth rates. While the latter finding was unexpected, especially given within season temperature variability, these results imply that by the onset of winter earlier spawned fish would be larger than later spawned individuals, potentially conferring advantages for survival and competition for food. Climate change predictions for eastern Tasmania indicate a decrease in river flows in spring and an increase during summer, potentially increasing environmental variability between and within years, with implications for spawning success and subsequent recruitment.     

Predicting potential impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Korea

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution and phenology of species and the productivity of aquatic ecosystem. In this study, we projected the impacts of climate change on the distributions of 22 endemic fish species in Korea with climatic and geographical variables by using species distribution models (SDMs). Six different SDMs – linear discriminant analysis, generalized linear model, classification and regression trees, random forest, support vector machine, and multivariate adaptive regression splines – were implemented for the prediction, and compared for their prediction capacity. The results showed that the random forest displayed the highest predictive power for the prediction of current species distributions. Therefore, the random forest was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the distributions of 22 endemic fish species. The results revealed that five species (Acheilognathus yamatsutae, Sarcocheilichthys variegatus wakiyae, Squalidus japonicus coreanus, Microphysogobio longidorsalis, and Liobagrus andersoni) have a high probability of becoming extinct in their respective habitable sub-watersheds by the 2080s due to climate change. The sensitivity analysis of the model showed that geo-hydrological variables such as stream order and altitude and temperature-related variables such as mean temperature in January and difference between the minimum and maximum temperatures exhibited relatively higher importance in their contributions for the prediction of species occurrence than that other variables. The decline of endemic fish species richness, and their occurrence probability due to climate change, would lead to poleward and upward shifts, as well as extinctions of species. Finally, we believe that our projections are useful for understanding how climate change affects the distribution range of endemic species in Korea, while also providing the necessary information to develop preservation and conservation strategies for maintaining endemic fish.     

The influence of tidal cycles and freshwater inflow on the distribution and movement of an estuarine resident fish Acanthopagrus butcheri

Movement patterns and habitat utilization by black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Sparidae), an estuarine resident species, were investigated using acoustic telemetry in a small estuary on the east coast of Tasmania, Australia. Thirty‐four adult A. butcheri were tracked for periods of up to 187 days between August 2005 and January 2006. Although able to tolerate a wide range of salinities, the fish spent most of the time within the upper and middle regions of the estuary, where brackish conditions dominated. The species exhibited extensive movements linked to tidal cycles, with small‐scale upstream movements during incoming tides and downstream movements during out going tides. The extent of these movements was positively correlated with the tidal height difference between consecutive tidal peaks and troughs. Freshwater inflows and resultant changes in salinity also significantly influenced distribution and movement patterns. Fish moved downstream during the periods of heavy inflows, returning upstream as salinities increased to c. >10. During the peak of spawning period (November to December) fish moved into the upper region of the estuary, where they aggregated to spawn. Periodic increases in freshwater discharge, however, resulted in fish leaving the spawning grounds and moving downstream. Towards the end of the spawning season (January), the fish became more dispersed throughout the entire estuarine system.     

Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO₂ scenarios predict a 1–7°C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of “surprises” or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. Therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. Fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. Genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. Endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east–west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. Artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. Impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. As it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. Furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its already-detrimental effects. Model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. Therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries.     

Historical comparisons show evolutionary changes in drought responses in European plant species after two decades of climate change

Plants must continuously respond to environmental changes, and a timely question is whether and how populations respond to ongoing global warming and increased drought frequencies and intensities. Plants can either respond through migration or through phenotypic plasticity or their populations can adapt evolutionarily, which encompasses the evolution of trait means and of trait plasticity. One way to detect such evolutionary changes within plant populations is through historical comparisons where plants grown from seeds collected in the past (“ancestors”) are compared to freshly collected seeds from the same populations (“descendants”) in common garden experiments. We used 21- to 26-year-old seeds stored in seed banks for two multi-species experiments that investigated changes in phenotypic traits and their plasticity conferring drought tolerance in early life stages of European plant species. In the first experiment, we used seedlings of four Mediterranean species, ceased watering and recorded their day of mortality. In the second experiment, we studied phenotypic responses to drought in juvenile plants of nine species originating from temperate regions in Europe. In one of four species in the first experiment, descendants survived significantly longer without watering and were smaller than their ancestors. In the second experiment, descendant plants were generally taller under well-watered conditions but smaller under drought than their ancestors, thus showing stronger plasticity. Our historical comparisons suggest that some populations have likely evolved through changes in trait means and plasticity in ways consistent with adaptation to increased drought. Using seed bank material for historical comparisons has several weaknesses, such as unknown sampling protocols or invisible fractions. However, we show how accurately sampled and stored seed bank collections can be used similar to the resurrection approach for investigating rapid evolutionary processes in early life stages of plants under climate change.     

Growth,condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change

Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south‐western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen‐balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013–15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently‐open, one seasonally‐closed and one normally‐closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter‐estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993–96 and 2013–15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally‐closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine “health.”     

Drivers of freshwater fish colonisations and extirpations under climate change

Climate change is expected to bring about profound rearrangement of ecological communities by affecting individual species distributions. The resulting communities arise from the idiosyncratic responses of species to future changes, which ultimately relate to both shrinking and expanding species ranges. While spatial patterns of colonisation and extirpation events have received great attention, the identification of specific drivers remains poorly explored. This study aims to investigate the relative contribution of species gain and loss to the turnover of fish assemblages in French rivers under future climate change, and to identify their principal drivers. Future projections of potential habitat suitability in 2080 derived from species distribution models for 40 fish species showed that colonisations and extirpations could play counterbalancing roles in the reshuffling of communities. Simultaneously, these two processes exhibited patchy spatial patterns, segregated along the longitudinal and altitudinal gradients, resulting in dramatic species turnover of ～ 60% of the current composition of species assemblages. Beyond the effect of topographic location, colonisations were found to be driven by temperature seasonality while extirpations were affected by modifications in both thermal and precipitation regimes. These results generate the possibility of developing ecosystem‐based management tools focused on the early identification of areas where particular species may be sensitive to climate changes. Disentangling the drivers of colonisation and extirpation processes provides ready‐to‐use information that may be easily integrated into conservation planning. This information could be used to identify potential hotspots of species gain and loss and to then compare these hotspots with newly favourable areas so as to consider their actual accessibility in order to facilitate future range shifts.     

Ecological differences influence the thermal sensitivity of swimming performance in two co-occurring mysid shrimp species with climate change implications

Temperature strongly affects performance in ectotherms. As ocean warming continues, performance of marine species will be impacted. Many studies have focused on how warming will impact physiology, life history, and behavior, but few studies have investigated how ecological and behavioral traits of organisms will affect their response to changing thermal environments. Here, we assessed the thermal tolerances and thermal sensitivity of swimming performance of two sympatric mysid shrimp species of the Northwest Atlantic. Neomysis americana and Heteromysis formosa overlap in habitat and many aspects of their ecological niche, but only N. americana exhibits vertical migration. In temperate coastal ecosystems, temperature stratification of the water column exposes vertical migrators to a wider range of temperatures on a daily basis. We found that N. americana had a significantly lower critical thermal minimum (CT_min) and critical thermal maximum (CT_max). However, both mysid species had a buffer of at least 4 °C between their CT_max and the 100-year projection for mean summer water temperatures of 28 °C. Swimming performance of the vertically migrating species was more sensitive to temperature variation, and this species exhibited faster burst swimming speeds. The generalist performance curve of H. formosa and specialist curve of N. americana are consistent with predictions based on the exposure of each species to temperature variation such that higher within-generation variability promotes specialization. However, these species violate the assumption of the specialist-generalist tradeoff in that the area under their performance curves is not constant. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating species-specific responses to temperature based on the ecology and behavior of organisms into climate change prediction models.     

Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia

We present a first assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the endemic flora of Namibia, and on its vegetation structure and function, for a projected climate in ～2050 and ～2080. We used both niche‐based models (NBM) to evaluate the sensitivity of 159 endemic species to climate change (of an original 1020 plant species modeled) and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning. Endemic species modeled by NBM are moderately sensitive to projected climate change. Fewer than 5% are predicted to experience complete range loss by 2080, although more than 47% of the species are expected to be vulnerable (range reduction >30%) by 2080 if they are assumed unable to migrate. Disaggregation of results by life‐form showed distinct patterns. Endemic species of perennial herb, geophyte and tree life‐formsare predicted to be negatively impacted in Namibia, whereas annual herb and succulent endemic species remain relatively stable by 2050 and 2080. Endemic annual herb species are even predicted to extend their range north‐eastward into the tree and shrub savanna with migration, and tolerance of novel substrates. The current protected area network is predicted to meet its mandate by protecting most of the current endemicity in Namibia into the future. Vegetation simulated by DGVM is projected to experience a reduction in cover, net primary productivity and leaf area index throughout much of the country by 2050, with important implications for the faunal component of Namibia's ecosystems, and the agricultural sector. The plant functional type (PFT) composition of the major biomes may be substantially affected by climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂– currently widespread deciduous broad leaved trees and C₄ PFTs decline, with the C₄ PFT particularly negatively affected by rising atmospheric CO₂ impacts by ～2080 and deciduous broad leaved trees more likely directly impacted by drying and warming. The C₃ PFT may increase in prominence in the northwestern quadrant of the country by ～2080 as CO₂ concentrations increase. These results suggest that substantial changes in species diversity, vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning can be expected in Namibia with anticipated climate change, although endemic plant richness may persist in the topographically diverse central escarpment region.     

Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages

Species Temporal Turnover (STT) is one of the most familiar metrics to assess changes in assemblage composition as a consequence of climate change. However, STT mixes two components in one metric, changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species loss or gain (i.e. the nestedness component) and changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species replacement (i.e. the species replacement component). Drawing on previous studies investigating spatial patterns of beta diversity, we propose measures of STT that allow analysing each component (species replacement vs. nestedness), separately. We also present a mapping strategy to simultaneously visualize changes in species richness and assemblage composition. To illustrate our approach, we used the Mediterranean coastal fish fauna as a case study. Using Bioclimatic Envelope Models (BEMs) we first projected the potential future climatic niches of 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on a global warming scenario. We then aggregated geographically the species‐level projections to analyse the projected changes in species richness and composition. Our results show that projected changes in assemblage composition are caused by different processes (species replacement vs. nestedness) in several areas of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, our mapping strategy highlights that the coastal fish fauna in several regions of the Mediterranean Sea could experience a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ effect if exposed to climate warming. Overall, the joint exploration of changes in species richness and composition coupled with the distinction between species replacement and nestedness bears important information for understanding the nature of climate change impacts on biodiversity. These methodological advances should help decision‐makers in prioritizing action in the areas facing the greatest vulnerability to climate.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the evolutionary adaptations of polar fish

The recognition of the important role of the polar habitats in global climate changes has awakened great interest in the evolutionary biology of the organisms that live there, as well as the increasing threat of loss of biological diversity and depletion of marine fisheries. These organisms are exposed to strong environmental constraints, and it is important to understand how they have adapted to cope with these challenges and to what extent adaptations may be upset by current climate changes. Adaptations of the dominant group of Antarctic fish, the suborder Notothenioidei, have been thoroughly investigated by several teams. Considering the amount of information available on cold adaptation, the study of fish adapted to the extreme conditions of the polar seas will allow us to gain invaluable clues on the development, impact and consequences of climate and anthropogenic challenges, with powerful implications for the future of the Earth.     

A multi-trait approach for the identification and protection of European freshwater species that are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

We present a multi-trait approach to identify potentially vulnerable species of Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies), collectively referred to as EPT, to the impacts of climate change (CC). The “climate change vulnerability score” (CCVS) is an aggregation of six autecological traits that are known to be associated with vulnerability to CC: endemism, micro-endemism, temperature preference, altitudinal preference, stream zonation preference, and life history. We assigned a vulnerability score (0 – invulnerable to 6 – highly vulnerable to climate change) to 1940 EPT species and discussed the applicability of the index at three spatial scales: (1) continental (Europe), (2) state (the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia) and (3) a river basin (the Ruhr River). We identified 157 EPT species (ca. 8%) as highly vulnerable to climate change (CCVS ≥ 4), including 95 species of caddisflies, 60 species of stoneflies and two species of mayflies. These are mostly found in France and Italy (52 species each), Spain and Slovenia (36 and 34, respectively), and Austria and Switzerland (30 species each), of which 95 are caddisflies, 60 stoneflies, and 2 mayflies. Using data collected in routine regional sampling we show that although no endemic EPTs were found in the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia, eight species can still be identified as relatively vulnerable to CC (CCVS of 3). Almost all of these species are occurring in the ‘mountainous’ regions of the state (>200 m a.s.l.), the Sauerland and the Eifel. The upper reaches of the Ruhr catchment have been found to be relatively rich in vulnerable species, including several locally rare species. This index can assist conservationists to identify “hotspots” in terms of climate vulnerability and climate change refuge areas that can be considered for protection or the application of restoration measures at a local and regional scale. Nevertheless, not all species have complete autecological information, which hinders our ability to fully recognize the areas of priority. To further stabilize and enhance the applicability of this method, it is essential to fill these knowledge gaps in the future.     

Scenarios of freshwater fish extinctions from climate change and water withdrawal

Reductions in river discharge (water availability) like those from climate change or increased water withdrawal, reduce freshwater biodiversity. We combined two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change with a global hydrological model to build global scenarios of future losses in river discharge from climate change and increased water withdrawal. Applying these results to known relationships between fish species and discharge, we build scenarios of losses (at equilibrium) of riverine fish richness. In rivers with reduced discharge, up to 75% (quartile range 4–22%) of local fish biodiversity would be headed toward extinction by 2070 because of combined changes in climate and water consumption. Fish loss in the scenarios fell disproportionately on poor countries. Reductions in water consumption could prevent many of the extinctions in these scenarios.     

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context‐dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non‐native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.     

Projected impacts of climate change on spatio‐temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity: a deconstructing approach

Aim To assess the potential impacts of future climate change on spatio‐temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity. Location Adour–Garonne River Basin (France). Methods We first applied an ensemble modelling approach to project annually the future distribution of 18 fish species for the 2010–2100 period on 50 sites. We then explored the spatial and temporal patterns of beta diversity by distinguishing between its two additive components, namely species turnover and nestedness. Results Taxonomic homogenization of fish assemblages was projected to increase linearly over the 21st century, especially in the downstream parts of the river gradient. This homogenization process was almost entirely caused by a decrease in spatial species turnover. When considering the temporal dimension of beta diversity, our results reveal an overall pattern of decreasing beta diversity along the upstream–downstream river gradient. In contrast, when considering the turnover and nestedness components of temporal beta diversity we found significant U‐shaped and hump‐shaped relationships, respectively. Main conclusions Future climate change is projected to modify the taxonomic composition of freshwater fish assemblages by increasing their overall similarity over the Adour–Garonne River Basin. Our findings suggest that the distinction between the nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity is not only crucial for understanding the processes shaping spatial beta‐diversity patterns but also for identifying localities where the rates of species replacement are projected to be greatest. Specifically we recommend that future conservation studies should not only consider the spatial component of beta diversity but also its dynamic caused by climate warming.     

Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation

Climate change may shrink and/or shift plant species ranges thereby increasing their vulnerability and requiring targeted conservation to facilitate adaptation. We quantified the vulnerability to climate change of plant species based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and assessed the effects of including these components in complementarity‐based spatial conservation prioritisation. We modelled the vulnerability of 584 native plant species under three climate change scenarios in an 11.9 million hectare fragmented agricultural region in southern Australia. We represented exposure as species' geographical range under each climate change scenario as quantified using species distribution models. We calculated sensitivity as a function of the impact of climate change on species' geographical ranges. Using a dispersal kernel, we quantified adaptive capacity as species' ability to migrate to new geographical ranges under each climate change scenario. Using Zonation, we assessed the impact of individual components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) on spatial conservation priorities and levels of species representation in priority areas under each climate change scenario. The full vulnerability framework proved an effective basis for identifying spatial conservation priorities under climate change. Including different dimensions of vulnerability had significant implications for spatial conservation priorities. Incorporating adaptive capacity increased the level of representation of most species. However, prioritising sensitive species reduced the representation of other species. We conclude that whilst taking an integrated approach to mitigating species vulnerability to climate change can ensure sensitive species are well‐represented in a conservation network, this can come at the cost of reduced representation of other species. Conservation planning decisions aimed at reducing species vulnerability to climate change need to be made in full cognisance of the sensitivity of spatial conservation priorities to individual components of vulnerability, and the trade‐offs associated with focussing on sensitive species.     

Using species co‐occurrence networks to assess the impacts of climate change

Viable populations of species occur in a given place if three conditions are met: the environment at the place is suitable; the species is able to colonize it; co‐occurrence is possible despite or because of interactions with other species. Studies investigating the effects of climate change on species have mainly focused on measuring changes in climate suitability. Complex interactions among species have rarely been explored in such studies. We extend network theory to the analysis of complex patterns of co‐occurrence among species. The framework is used to explore the robustness of networks under climate change. With our data, we show that networks describing the geographic pattern of co‐occurrence among species display properties shared by other complex networks, namely that most species are poorly connected to other species in the network and only a few are highly connected. In our example, species more exposed to climate change tended to be poorly connected to other species within the network, while species more connected tended to be less exposed. Such high connectance would make the co‐occurrence networks more robust to climate change. The proposed framework illustrates how network analysis could be used, together with co‐occurrence data, to help addressing the potential consequences of species interactions in studies of climate change and biodiversity. However, more research is needed to test for links between co‐occurrence and network interactions.