Estimating lifetime risk of diabetes in the Chinese population

In this Perspective, Fiona Bragg and Zhengming Chen discuss the burden of diabetes in the Chinese Population.

The worldwide epidemic of diabetes continues to grow [1]. In China, the rise in prevalence has been notably rapid; about 12% of the adult population has diabetes [2], accounting for almost one quarter of cases worldwide [1] and representing a 10-fold increase over the last 3 to 4 decades. It is appropriate, therefore, that diabetes—both prevention and management—is a major focus of current health policy initiatives in China [3,4], and their success depends on reliable quantification of the burden of diabetes. Commonly used measures such as prevalence and incidence fail to capture excess mortality risks or differences in life expectancy in diabetes [5]. Moreover, they may be less easily interpreted by policy makers and affected individuals. Estimates of lifetime risks and life years spent living with diabetes in an accompanying study by Luk and colleagues provide a valuable new perspective on the burden of diabetes in the Chinese population [6].The study used Hong Kong territory-wide electronic health records data for 2.6 million adults. Using a Markov chain model and Monte-Carlo simulations, Luk and colleagues estimated age- and sex-specific lifetime risks of diabetes (incorporating both clinically diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes) and remaining life years spent with diabetes. Their findings showed a lifetime risk of 65.9% and 12.7 years of life living with diabetes for an average 20-year old with normoglycaemia. For an average 20-year old with prediabetes the corresponding estimates were 88.0% and 32.5 years, respectively. In other words, 6 out of 10 20-year olds with normoglycaemia and 9 out of 10 with prediabetes would be expected to develop diabetes in their lifetime. The estimated lifetime risks declined with increasing age and were higher among women than men at all ages, likely reflecting women’s higher life expectancy.These estimated lifetime risks are striking and concerning. Moreover, they are notably higher than western population estimates [7–10], including those considering both diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes [9,10]. An Australian study estimated that 38% of 25-year olds would develop diabetes in their lifetime [10]. Another study in the Netherlands reported 31.3% and 74.0% probabilities of developing diabetes in the remaining lifetime for individuals aged 45 years without diabetes and with prediabetes, respectively [9]. Diabetes incidence and overall mortality influence population lifetime risks. Differences in the glycaemic indicators used to identify undiagnosed diabetes may have contributed to differences between studies in diabetes incidence. In the study by Luk and colleagues, a combination of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), HbA1c levels and oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) was used, while in the Australian [10] and the Netherlands [9] studies, they used FPG/OGTT and mainly FPG, respectively. However, it is unlikely these differences would fully account for the large disparities seen in lifetime risk. Similarly, differences between life expectancy in Hong Kong (84.8 years), Australia (83.4 years), and the Netherlands (82.2 years) are too small to explain the differences. Interestingly, the high lifetime risks observed in Hong Kong were more comparable to those in the Indian population, estimated at 55.5% and 64.6%, respectively, among 20-year-old men and women [11]. The typical type 2 diabetes (T2D) phenotype in these Asian populations may partly explain their higher estimated lifetime risks. More specifically, T2D in both Chinese and Indian populations is characterised by onset among younger and less adipose individuals than typically observed in western populations, exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and associated unhealthy lifestyles [12].However, aspects of Luk and colleagues’ study design may have overestimated lifetime diabetes risks. Chief among these is the data source used and associated selection bias. The Hong Kong Diabetes Surveillance Database includes only individuals who have ever had a plasma glucose or HbA1c measurement undertaken in a local health authority facility. Since measurement of glycaemic indicators is more likely among individuals at greater current or future risk of dysglycaemic states, this will have inflated estimates of lifetime risk and life years spent with diabetes. Although replication was undertaken by the study authors to address this bias in the smaller China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) cohort, it does not fully allay these concerns, with modestly lower estimated lifetime diabetes risks in the CHARLS cohort, even after accounting for its higher mortality. A further limitation is their consideration of transition to dysglycaemic states as irreversible. Although data on long-term transition between glycaemic states are lacking, reversion from prediabetes (and less commonly diabetes) to normoglycaemia is well recognised, e.g., through lifestyle interventions [13].Large-scale population-based cohort studies could valuably address many of the limitations described [14]. Furthermore, lifetime risks are, by definition, population-based and represent the risk of an average person in the population, limiting their value for communicating long-term disease risks to specific individuals. However, the extensive phenotyping (e.g., adiposity) characteristic of many large contemporary cohorts [14] would facilitate incorporation of risk factors into lifetime risk estimates, enhancing their relevance to individuals. Previous studies have found greater lifetime risks of diabetes associated with adiposity [9,11], and this approach could be extended to incorporate other established, as well as more novel (e.g., genetic), risk factors. This is arguably of particular relevance to later-onset chronic conditions, such as T2D, in which changes in risk factors during middle age can influence lifetime risks. A valuable extension of Luk and colleagues’ study will be estimation of risk factor specific lifetime diabetes risks for the Chinese population.Importantly, the limitations described do not detract from the enormity and importance of the challenge diabetes poses for China, including Hong Kong, and the estimates presented by Luk and colleagues provide valuable impetus for action. The disease burden insights can inform treatment programmes and enhance understanding of current and future impacts of diabetes and associated complications on the healthcare system. Moreover, T2D is preventable, and arguably, the greatest value of these estimated lifetime risks is in highlighting the need for, and informing the planning and provision of, diabetes primary prevention programmes. This includes identification of high-risk individuals, such as those with prediabetes, who are most likely to benefit from prevention interventions. However, the magnitude of the estimated lifetime diabetes risks, including among the large proportion of the population in a normoglycaemic state, additionally demonstrates the need for population-level prevention approaches, including environmental, structural, and fiscal strategies. Without such actions, the individual and societal consequences of diabetes for present and future generations in Hong Kong, as well as mainland China, will be immense.     

The Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes in the Adult Population of Jeddah,Saudi Arabia- A Community-Based Survey

BackgroundType 2 (T2DM) is believed to be common in Saudi Arabia, but data are limited. In this population survey, we determined the prevalence of T2DM and prediabetes.ResultsAge and sex standardized prevalence of prediabetes was 9.0% (95% CI 7.5–10.5); 9.4% (7.1–11.8) in men and 8.6% (6.6–10.6) in women. For DM it was 12.1% (10.7–13.5); 12.9% (10.7–13.5) in men and 11.4% (9.5–13.3) in women. The prevalence based on World Population as standard was 18.3% for DM and 11.9% for prediabetes. The prevalence of DM and prediabetes increased with age. Of people aged ≥50 years 46% of men and 44% of women had DM. Prediabetes and DM were associated with various measures of adiposity. DM was also associated with and family history of dyslipidemia in women, cardiovascular disease in men, and with hypertension, dyslipidemia and family history of diabetes in both sexes.DiscussionAge was the strongest predictor of DM and prediabetes followed by obesity. Of people aged 50 years or over almost half had DM and another 10–15% had prediabetes leaving only a small proportion of people in this age group with normoglycemia. Since we did not use an oral glucose tolerance test the true prevalence of DM and prediabetes is thus likely to be even higher than reported here. These results demonstrate the urgent need to develop primary prevention strategies for type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia.     

Lifetime risk of diabetes among First Nations and non–First Nations people

Background:Lifetime risk is a relatively straightforward measure used to communicate disease burden, representing the cumulative risk of an outcome during the remainder of an individual’s life starting from a disease-free index age. We estimated the lifetime risk of diabetes among men and women in both First Nations and non–First Nations populations using a cohort of adults in a single Canadian province.Methods:We used a population-based cohort consisting of Alberta residents from 1997 to 2008 who were free of diabetes at cohort entry to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes among First Nations and non–First Nations people. We calculated age-specific incidence rates with the person-year method in 5-year bands. We estimated the sex- and index-age–specific lifetime risk of incident diabetes, after adjusting for the competing risk of death.Results:The cohort included 70 631 First Nations and 2 732 214 non–First Nations people aged 18 years or older. The lifetime risk of diabetes at 20 years of age was 75.6% among men and 87.3% among women in the First Nations group, as compared with 55.6% among men and 46.5% among women in the non–First Nations group. The risk was higher among First Nations people than among non–First Nations people for all index ages and for both sexes. Among non–First Nations people, men had a higher lifetime risk of diabetes than women across all index ages. In contrast, among First Nations people, women had a higher lifetime risk than men across all index ages.Interpretation:About 8 in 10 First Nations people and about 5 in 10 non–First Nations people of young age will develop diabetes in their remaining lifetime. These population-based estimates may help health care planners and decision-makers set priorities and increase public awareness and interest in the prevention of diabetes.Diabetes mellitus is a major health problem worldwide and is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, life expectancy and health care costs.^1–4 The prevalence of diabetes in Canada has increased more than twofold over the past decade.⁵ Currently, the disease affects almost 2.4 million Canadians,⁶ and its management, along with that of associated complications, costs more than $9 billion annually.⁷ The burden of diabetes is particularly high among First Nations people in Canada, with prevalence rates 3–5 times higher than those among non–First Nations people.⁸Reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes will require a broad set of population-based and individual-level interventions that target diabetogenic aspects of lifestyle, as well as social determinants of health. The changes required to achieve these objectives will need buy-in from a wide range of stakeholders. Thus, it will be important to communicate risk in a way that is understood by the general population and by health authorities.Although estimates of incidence and prevalence provide important information about the burden of a disease in the community, they do not provide adequate information regarding the perspective of risk at the individual level. Lifetime risk (the probability of a disease-free individual developing the disease during his or her remaining lifespan) may be more informative for the general population and for decision-makers. Life-table modelling techniques use incidence and mortality data to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes. This important assessment of the disease burden of diabetes has been undertaken in a few studies,^9–11 but it has not been done in Canada. The need for such estimates is particularly relevant given the higher prevalence of diabetes among First Nations people in Canada.We estimated the lifetime risk of diabetes among men and women in both First Nations and non–First Nations populations using a cohort of adults residing in a single Canadian province.     

Sex-Specific Associations of Iron-Anemia Status With Hemoglobin A1C Levels Among Hispanics/Latinos Without Self-Reported Diabetes Mellitus: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to examine the sex-specific associations of mutually exclusive iron-anemia status categories with hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) levels among U.S. Hispanics/Latinos without self-reported diabetes mellitus.MethodsBaseline cross-sectional data (7247 women and 4904 men without self-reported diabetes mellitus) from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos were analyzed. Per the American Diabetes Association’s defined criteria, based on HbA1C levels, the participants were categorized as having normoglycemia, prediabetes, or probable diabetes mellitus. The iron-anemia status categories were as follows: no anemia and no iron deficiency (reference), iron deficiency, iron deficiency anemia (IDA), and non-iron deficiency anemia (non-IDA). Survey multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the sex-specific associations of iron-anemia status with HbA1C levels after adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors.ResultsThe age-standardized prevalence of iron-anemia status categories differed by sex. Compared with those with no anemia and no iron deficiency and normoglycemia, women with IDA had higher odds of having prediabetes (odds ratio [OR], 2.18; 95% CI, 1.64-2.89) and probable diabetes mellitus (OR, 3.59; 95% CI, 1.62-7.99) based on HbA1C levels; men with non-IDA had higher odds of having probable diabetes mellitus (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.13-7.78) based on HbA1C levels. All other associations did not reach statistical significance.ConclusionAmong U.S. Hispanics/Latinos without self-reported diabetes mellitus, the age-standardized prevalence of iron deficiency, IDA, and non-IDA is high and varies by sex. Women with IDA had higher odds of having prediabetes and probable diabetes mellitus, defined based on HbA1C levels. Men with non-IDA had higher odds of having probable diabetes mellitus, defined based on HbA1C levels. Iron-anemia status should be considered while interpreting elevated HbA1C levels among U.S. Hispanics/Latinos without self-reported diabetes mellitus.     

Association of urinary iodine concentration with prediabetes/diabetes in adults: Analysis of the NHANES 2005–2016

Background & AimsIodine is required for synthesizing thyroid hormones and regulating human metabolism. Iodine deficiency can lead to thyroid function abnormalities, which are closely associated with disturbances in glucose-insulin homeostasis. Research on the relationship between iodine and diabetes/prediabetes in adults was sparse and inconsistent. We assessed trends in urinary iodine concentration (UIC) and diabetes/prediabetes prevalence and focused on the association between iodine and diabetes/prediabetes among U.S. adults.MethodsWe analyzed the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from the 2005–2016 cycles. Linear regression was employed to evaluate UIC and prediabetes/diabetes prevalence trends over time. Both multiple logistic regression and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were performed to evaluate the association of UIC with diabetes/prediabetes.ResultsA distinctly declining trend in median UIC and a significant increase in diabetes prevalence in U.S. adults from 2005 to 2016 were observed. The fourth quartile of UIC was associated with a 30% lower risk for prediabetes, compared with the first quartile (OR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.56–0.86, P_trend=0.001). However, UIC was not significantly associated with the prevalence of diabetes. The RCS model suggested a significant nonlinear relationship between UIC and the risk of diabetes (P for nonlinearity =0.0147). Stratification analysis showed that the negative associations of UIC with the risk of prediabetes were more pronounced in participants who were men, aged 46–65, overweight, light alcohol drinkers, and nonactive smokers.ConclusionsOverall, the adults’ median UIC in the U.S. population was a declining trend. However, diabetes prevalence increased significantly from 2005 to 2016. Higher UIC was associated with a lower risk of prediabetes.     

Body adiposity and type 2 diabetes: increased risk with a high body fat percentage even having a normal BMI

Obesity is the major risk factor for the development of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes. BMI is widely used as a surrogate measure of obesity, but underestimates the prevalence of obesity, defined as an excess of body fat. We assessed the presence of impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose (both considered together as prediabetes) or type 2 diabetes in relation to the criteria used for the diagnosis of obesity using BMI as compared to body fat percentage (BF%). We performed a cross-sectional study including 4,828 (587 lean, 1,320 overweight, and 2,921 obese classified according to BMI) white subjects (66% females), aged 18-80 years. BMI, BF% determined by air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) and conventional blood markers of glucose metabolism and lipid profile were measured. We found a higher than expected number of subjects with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes in the obese category according to BF% when the sample was globally analyzed (P < 0.0001) and in the lean BMI-classified subjects (P < 0.0001), but not in the overweight or obese-classified individuals. Importantly, BF% was significantly higher in lean (by BMI) women with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes as compared to those with normoglycemia (NG) (35.5 ± 7.0 vs. 30.3 ± 7.7%, P < 0.0001), whereas no differences were observed for BMI. Similarly, increased BF% was found in lean BMI-classified men with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes (25.2 ± 9.0 vs. 19.9 ± 8.0%, P = 0.008), exhibiting no differences in BMI or waist circumference. In conclusion, assessing BF% may help to diagnose disturbed glucose tolerance beyond information provided by BMI and waist circumference in particular in male subjects with BMI <25 kg/m(2) and over the age of 40.     

Diabetes Status and Race are Associated With Cardiovascular Risk Markers in Obese Adolescents

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to evaluate differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers in obese adolescents based on diabetes status and race in order to improve risk-reduction intervention strategies.MethodsThis was a retrospective, cross-sectional study of obese adolescents, age 10 to 21 years, who were evaluated at Children’s of Alabama between 2000 and 2012. Subjects were classified by glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c) as having normoglycemia, prediabetes, or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).ResultsThere were a total of 491 African American (AA) or Caucasian American (CA) subjects. Body mass index was not different between HbA_1c and racial groups. Compared to subjects with normoglycemia or prediabetes, subjects with T2DM had higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) (178.6 ± 43.8 mg/dL vs. 161.5 ± 32.5 mg/dL vs. 162.4 ± 30.6 mg/dL; P < .0001) and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (107.4 ± 39.2 mg/dL vs. 97.0 ± 31.0 mg/dL vs. 97.5 ± 26.9 mg/dL; P = .0073). Compared with AA subjects, CA subjects had lower high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels (40.4 ± 10.4 mg/dL vs. 44.3 ± 11.9 mg/dL; P = .0005) and higher non-HDL-C levels (129.6 ± 36.2 mg/dL vs. 122.5 ± 37.5 mg/dL; P = .0490). Of the characteristics studied, HbA_1c had the most significant positive association with dyslipidemia and was strongly correlated with both TC (β, 4.21; P < .0001) and non-HDL-C (β, 4.3; P < .0001).ConclusionObese adolescents with T2DM have more abnormal lipoprotein profiles than those with normoglycemia or prediabetes. Obese CA adolescents have more abnormal lipids than obese AA adolescents. HbA_1c was the characteristic most highly associated with abnormal lipoprotein profiles in our subjects. Our results show that CVD risk markers in obese adolescents vary by race and HbA_1c concentration. (Endocr Pract. 2015;21:165-173)     

Development and validation of the CHIME simulation model to assess lifetime health outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations: A modeling study

BackgroundExisting predictive outcomes models for type 2 diabetes developed and validated in historical European populations may not be applicable for East Asian populations due to differences in the epidemiology and complications. Despite the continuum of risk across the spectrum of risk factor values, existing models are typically limited to diabetes alone and ignore the progression from prediabetes to diabetes. The objective of this study is to develop and externally validate a patient-level simulation model for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in the East Asian population for predicting lifetime health outcomes.Methods and findingsWe developed a health outcomes model from a population-based cohort of individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes: Hong Kong Clinical Management System (CMS, 97,628 participants) from 2006 to 2017. The Chinese Hong Kong Integrated Modeling and Evaluation (CHIME) simulation model comprises of 13 risk equations to predict mortality, micro- and macrovascular complications, and development of diabetes. Risk equations were derived using parametric proportional hazard models. External validation of the CHIME model was assessed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 4,567 participants) from 2011 to 2018 for mortality, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, renal failure, cataract, and development of diabetes; and against 80 observed endpoints from 9 published trials using 100,000 simulated individuals per trial. The CHIME model was compared to United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) by assessing model discrimination (C-statistics), calibration slope/intercept, root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and R². CHIME risk equations had C-statistics for discrimination from 0.636 to 0.813 internally and 0.702 to 0.770 externally for diabetes participants. Calibration slopes between deciles of expected and observed risk in CMS ranged from 0.680 to 1.333 for mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, ulcer of the skin, cataract, renal failure, and heart failure; 0.591 for peripheral vascular disease; 1.599 for cerebrovascular disease; and 2.247 for amputation; and in CHARLS outcomes from 0.709 to 1.035. CHIME had better discrimination and calibration than UKPDS-OM2 in CMS (C-statistics 0.548 to 0.772, slopes 0.130 to 3.846) and CHARLS (C-statistics 0.514 to 0.750, slopes −0.589 to 11.411); and small improvements in discrimination and better calibration than RECODe in CMS (C-statistics 0.615 to 0.793, slopes 0.138 to 1.514). Predictive error was smaller for CHIME in CMS (RSMPE 3.53% versus 10.82% for UKPDS-OM2 and 11.16% for RECODe) and CHARLS (RSMPE 4.49% versus 14.80% for UKPDS-OM2). Calibration performance of CHIME was generally better for trials with Asian participants (RMSPE 0.48% to 3.66%) than for non-Asian trials (RMPSE 0.81% to 8.50%). Main limitations include the limited number of outcomes recorded in the CHARLS cohort, and the generalizability of simulated cohorts derived from trial participants.ConclusionsOur study shows that the CHIME model is a new validated tool for predicting progression of diabetes and its outcomes, particularly among Chinese and East Asian populations that has been lacking thus far. The CHIME model can be used by health service planners and policy makers to develop population-level strategies, for example, setting HbA1c and lipid targets, to optimize health outcomes.

In a modelling study, Jianchao Quan and colleagues develop and validate a novel prediabetes and type 2 diabetes outcomes prediction model for Chinese and East Asian populations.     

Revised Case Finding Protocol for Dysglycemia in Chile: A Call for Action in Other Populations

ObjectiveGuidelines recommend case finding for dysglycemia (prediabetes and type 2 diabetes [T2D]) in adults or youth older than 10 years with overweight/obesity, but increased adiposity has not been associated with dysglycemia in some Hispanic populations. This study aims to determine the prevalence of dysglycemia in this population using simplified criteria independent of body mass index and age to request an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT).MethodsCross-sectional retrospective analysis of medical records from a clinical center in Chile (2000-2007). OGTT was obtained from any patient with 1 cardiometabolic risk factor (CMRF) independent of age and body mass index.ResultsIn total, 4969 adults (mean age ± SD) 45.7 ± 15.9 years and 509 youths 16.6 ± 3.0 years were included. The prevalence (%, 95% CI) of prediabetes doubled that of T2D in youths (14.1%, 1.4-17.4 vs 6.3%, 4.5-8.7) and tripled it in adults (36.0%, 34.7-37.4 vs 10.7%, 9.8-11.5). In underweight and normal-weight adults, 22% (12.0-36.7) and 29.2% (26.4-32.1) had prediabetes, whereas 4.9% (1.3-16.1) and 8.8% (7.2-10.7) had T2D, respectively. In normal weight youths, 10.5% (6.7-15.9) and 2.9% (1.2-6.6) had prediabetes and T2D, respectively. In adults, but not in youths, most dysglycemia categories were related to overweight/obesity.ConclusionThis study supports a public health policy to identify more people at risk for cardiovascular disease by implementing a revised case finding protocol for dysglycemia using OGTT in even normal weight patients over 6 years of age when there is at least 1 CMRF. Reanalysis of case finding protocols for cardiometabolic risk in other populations is warranted.     

Identifying Probable Diabetes Mellitus Among Hispanics/Latinos from Four U.S. Cities: Findings from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the ability of American Diabetes Association (ADA) diagnostic criteria to identify U.S. Hispanics/Latinos from diverse heritage groups with probable diabetes mellitus and assess cardiovascular risk factor correlates of those criteria.Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of data from 15,507 adults from 6 Hispanic/Latino heritage groups, enrolled in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos. The prevalence of probable diabetes mellitus was estimated using individual or combinations of ADA-defined cut points. The sensitivity and specificity of these criteria at identifying diabetes mellitus from ADA-defined prediabetes and normoglycemia were evaluated. Prevalence ratios of hypertension, abnormal lipids, and elevated urinary albumin-creatinine ratio for unrecognized diabetes mellitus—versus prediabetes and normoglycemia—were calculated.Results: Among Hispanics/Latinos (mean age, 43 years) with diabetes mellitus, 39.4% met laboratory test criteria for probable diabetes, and the prevalence varied by heritage group. Using the oral glucose tolerance test as the gold standard, the sensitivity of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c—alone or in combination—was low (18, 23, and 33%, respectively) at identifying probable diabetes mellitus. Individuals who met any criterion for probable diabetes mellitus had significantly higher (P<.05) prevalence of most cardiovascular risk factors than those with normoglycemia or prediabetes, and this association was not modified by Hispanic/Latino heritage group.Conclusion: FPG and hemoglobin A1c are not sensitive (but are highly specific) at detecting probable diabetes mellitus among Hispanics/Latinos, independent of heritage group. Assessing cardiovascular risk factors at diagnosis might prompt multitarget interventions and reduce health complications in this young population.Abbreviations:2hPG = 2-hour post–glucose load plasma glucoseADA = American Diabetes AssociationBMI = body mass indexCV = cardiovascularFPG = fasting plasma glucoseHbA1c = hemoglobin A1cHCHS/SOL = Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of LatinosHDL-C = high-density-lipoprotein cholesterolNGT = normal glucose toleranceNHANES = National Health and Nutrition Examination SurveyOGTT = oral glucose tolerance testTG = triglycerideUACR = urine albumin-creatinine ratio     

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Diabetes and Diabetic Retinopathy in Liaoning Province,China: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Aim

To evaluate the prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in northeast area of China with a population-based study.

Methods

A population of 3173 (aged from 20 to 80 years old) was stratified by geographical location and age in Liaoning province, China. Prediabetes and diabetes were diagnosed according to the guideline of American Diabetes Association. Retinal photographs were obtained by using digital non-mydriatic camera for the presence and grading of DR according to the modified ETDRS Airlie house classification. Blood samples and comprehensive questionnaires were obtained for evaluation of laboratory results and risk factors.

Results

The prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes was 20.7% and 10.4%, respectively. Among diabetes patients, DR prevalence was 11.9%. Age, obesity, total cholesterol, triglycerides, hypertension, living in rural areas and diabetes family history are all risk factors for prediabetes and diabetes. Waist-to-hip circumference rate served as a better obesity index to estimate diabetes risk compared with body mass index and waist circumference. Among all risk factors that we investigated, only the length of diabetes history was associated with the incidence of DR. However, DR prevalence in the newly discovered patients in rural areas was significantly higher than that in urban areas.

Conclusion

According to this study, 1 in 10 people has diabetes, 2 in 10 people have prediabetes, and 1 in 10 diabetics has DR in Liaoning province. In rural areas, diabetes was poorly recognized with limited medical resources, which probably resulted in more diabetes patient at a high risk of DR.     

Is Serum Zinc Level Associated with Prediabetes and Diabetes?: A Cross-Sectional Study from Bangladesh

Aims

To determine serum zinc level and other relevant biological markers in normal, prediabetic and diabetic individuals and their association with Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) parameters.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted between March and December 2009. Any patient aged ≥30 years attending the medicine outpatient department of a medical university hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh and who had a blood glucose level ordered by a physician was eligible to participate.

Results

A total of 280 participants were analysed. On fasting blood sugar results, 51% were normal, 13% had prediabetes and 36% had diabetes. Mean serum zinc level was lowest in prediabetic compared to normal and diabetic participants (mean differences were approximately 65 ppb/L and 33 ppb/L, respectively). In multiple linear regression, serum zinc level was found to be significantly lower in prediabetes than in those with normoglycemia. Beta cell function was significantly lower in prediabetes than normal participants. Adjusted linear regression for HOMA parameters did not show a statistically significant association between serum zinc level, beta cell function (P = 0.07) and insulin resistance (P = 0.08). Low serum zinc accentuated the increase in insulin resistance seen with increasing BMI.

Conclusion

Participants with prediabetes have lower zinc levels than controls and zinc is significantly associated with beta cell function and insulin resistance. Further longitudinal population based studies are warranted and controlled trials would be valuable for establishing whether zinc supplementation in prediabetes could be a useful strategy in preventing progression to Type 2 diabetes.     

The Prevalence of Dysglycemia-Based Chronic Disease in a European Population – a New Paradigm to Address Diabetes Burden: A Kardiovize Study

ObjectiveTo determine the prevalence rate and associated risk factors for each stage of the Dysglycemia-Based Chronic Disease (DBCD) model, which 4 distinct stages and prompts early prevention to avert Diabetes and cardiometabolic complications.MethodsSubjects between 25 and 64 years old from a random population-based sample were evaluated in Czechia from 2013 to 2014 using a cross-sectional design. DBCD stages were: stage 1 “insulin resistance” (inferred risk from abdominal obesity or a family history of diabetes); stage 2 “prediabetes”(fasting glucose between 5.6 and 6.9 mmol/L); stage 3 “type 2 diabetes (T2D)” (self-report of T2D or fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L); and stage 4 “vascular complications” (T2D with cardiovascular disease).ResultsA total of 2147 subjects were included (57.8% women) with a median age of 48 years. The prevalence of each DBCD stage were as follows: 54.2% (stage 1); 10.3% (stage 2), 3.7% (stage 3); and 1.2% (stage 4). Stages 2 to 4 were more frequent in men and stage 1 in women (P < .001). Using binary logistic regression analysis adjusting by age/sex, all DBCD stages were strongly associated with abnormal adiposity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and smoking status. Subjects with lower educational levels and lower income were more likely to present DBCD.ConclusionUsing the new DBCD framework and available metrics, 69.4% of the population had DBCD, identifying far more people at risk than a simple prevalence rate for T2D (9.2% in Czechia, 2013-2014). All stages were associated with traditional cardiometabolic risk factors, implicating common pathophysiologic mechanisms and a potential for early preventive care. The social determinants of health were related with all DBCD stages in alarming proportions and will need to be further studied.     

Prevalencia de alteraciones del metabolismo hidrocarbonado en una población infanto-juvenil con obesidad grave

IntroductionThere is currently a disproportionate increase in childhood and adolescent obesity worldwide, together with other disorders involving substantial cardiometabolic risk in adulthood, such as alterations in carbohydrate metabolism.ObjectiveTo establish the prevalence of prediabetes, defined as impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) after an oral glucose tolerance test, and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM-2) in a pediatric population with severe obesity. Additionally, we aimed to assess clinical metabolic differences between prediabetic obese patients and obese subjects without prediabetes.Material and methodsA cross-sectional study was carried out in children and adolescents with severe obesity (>97th percentile). The variables studied were age, sex, height, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose and oral glucose tolerance test, insulinemia, insulin resistance assessed by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) index, glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure.ResultsA total of 133 patients were included: 67 boys (50.4%) and 66 girls (49.6%), with a mean age of 12.17±3.27 years. Fourteen patients (10.52%) had prediabetes (10 IFG, 3 IGT, 1 IFG+IGT): 7 girls and 8 boys, with a mean age of 13.2±3.3 years. One patient had DM2 (0.75%). Patients with prediabetes had significantly higher concentrations of fasting glucose (98±10.76 vs 88.53±6.3 mg/d; p=0.001), insulinemia (35.38±14.22 vs 22.95±14.30 μU/ml; p=0.009) and HOMA index (8.10±3.24 vs 4.89±3.27; p=0.004) than patients without impaired carbohydrate metabolism. These patients also had higher values of HbA_1c, triglycerides, blood pressure and HDL concentrations, although differences were not statistically significant.ConclusionsThe prevalence of prediabetes (IFG/IGT) in children with severe obesity was high (10.52%). These patients should therefore be investigated to establish early diagnosis and appropriate treatment. Obese patients with prediabetes have significantly higher levels of insulin and insulin resistance than individuals without impaired carbohydrate metabolism.     

Duration of obesity exposure between ages 10 and 40 years and its relationship with cardiometabolic disease risk factors: A cohort study

BackgroundIndividuals with obesity do not represent a homogeneous group in terms of cardiometabolic risk. Using 3 nationally representative British birth cohorts, we investigated whether the duration of obesity was related to heterogeneity in cardiometabolic risk.Methods and findingsWe used harmonised body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic disease risk factor data from 20,746 participants (49.1% male and 97.2% white British) enrolled in 3 British birth cohort studies: the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS), and the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70). Within each cohort, individual life course BMI trajectories were created between 10 and 40 years of age, and from these, age of obesity onset, duration spent obese (range 0 to 30 years), and cumulative obesity severity were derived. Obesity duration was examined in relation to a number of cardiometabolic disease risk factors collected in mid-adulthood: systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c).A greater obesity duration was associated with worse values for all cardiometabolic disease risk factors. The strongest association with obesity duration was for HbA1c: HbA1c levels in those with obesity for <5 years were relatively higher by 5% (95% CI: 4, 6), compared with never obese, increasing to 20% (95% CI: 17, 23) higher in those with obesity for 20 to 30 years. When adjustment was made for obesity severity, the association with obesity duration was largely attenuated for SBP, DBP, and HDL-C. For HbA1c, however, the association with obesity duration persisted, independent of obesity severity. Due to pooling of 3 cohorts and thus the availability of only a limited number harmonised variables across cohorts, our models included adjustment for only a small number of potential confounding variables, meaning there is a possibility of residual confounding.ConclusionsGiven that the obesity epidemic is characterised by a much earlier onset of obesity and consequently a greater lifetime exposure, our findings suggest that health policy recommendations aimed at preventing early obesity onset, and therefore reducing lifetime exposure, may help reduce the risk of diabetes, independently of obesity severity. However, to test the robustness of our observed associations, triangulation of evidence from different epidemiological approaches (e.g., mendelian randomization and negative control studies) should be obtained.

Tom Norris and colleagues investigate how obesity duration and obesity severity throughout a person''s lifetime may affect cardiometabolic risk factors such as blood pressure, cholesterol, and glycated haemoglobin.     

How should we monitor the cardiovascular benefit of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibition?

Background

High N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). However, less is known about other cardiac stress biomarkers in this context. Here we evaluated the association of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), C-terminal pro-arginine vasopressin (copeptin), C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 (CT-proET-1) and mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) with incident T2D and changes in glucose metabolism.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study using data from the population-based KORA F4/FF4 study. 1773 participants (52.3% women) with MR-proANP measurements and 960 (52.7% women) with copeptin, CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM measurements were included. We examined associations of circulating plasma levels of MR-proANP, copeptin, CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM with incident T2D, the combined endpoint of incident prediabetes/T2D and with fasting and 2 h-glucose, fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, HOMA-B and HbA1c at follow-up. Logistic and linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, waist circumference, height, hypertension, total/HDL cholesterol ratio, triglycerides, smoking, physical activity and parental history of diabetes were used to compute effect estimates.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 6.4 years (25th and 75th percentiles: 6.0 and 6.6, respectively), 119 out of the 1773 participants and 72 out of the 960 participants developed T2D. MR-proANP was inversely associated with incident T2D (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.75 [0.58; 0.96] per 1-SD increase of log MR-proANP). Copeptin was positively associated with incident prediabetes/T2D (1.29 [1.02; 1.63] per 1-SD increase of log copeptin). Elevated levels of CT-proET-1 were associated with increased HOMA-B at follow-up, while elevated MR-proADM levels were associated with increased fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and HOMA-B at follow-up. These associations were independent of previously described diabetes risk factors.

Conclusions

High plasma concentrations of MR-proANP contributed to a lower risk of incident T2D, whereas high plasma concentrations of copeptin were associated with an increased risk of incident prediabetes/T2D. Furthermore, high plasma concentrations of CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM were associated with increased insulin resistance. Our study provides evidence that biomarkers implicated in cardiac stress are associated with incident T2D and changes in glucose metabolism.

     

Health Care Transition in Young Adults with Type 1 Diabetes: Barriers to Timely Establishment of Adult Diabetes Care

ObjectiveTo examine barriers to health care transition reported by young adults with type 1 diabetes and associations between barriers and prolonged gaps between pediatric and adult diabetes care.MethodsWe surveyed young adults aged 22 to 30 years with type 1 diabetes about their transition experiences, including barriers to timely establishment of adult diabetes care. We evaluated relationships between barriers and gaps in care using multivariate logistic regression.ResultsThe response rate was 53% (258 of 484 eligible subjects). Respondents (62% female) were 26.7 ± 2.4 years old and transitioned to adult diabetes care at 19.5 ± 2.9 years. Reported barriers included lack of specific adult provider referral name (47%) or contact information (27%), competing life priorities (43%), difficulty getting an appointment (41%), feeling upset about leaving pediatrics (24%), and insurance problems (10%). In multivariate analysis, barriers most strongly associated with gaps in care >6 months were lack of adult provider name (odds ratio [OR], 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-12.7) or contact information (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0-13.9), competing life priorities (OR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.7-10.3), and insurance problems (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.2-10.3). Overall, respondents reporting ≥1 moderate/major barrier (48%) had 4.7-fold greater adjusted odds of a gap in care >6 months (95% CI, 2.8-8.7).ConclusionSignificant barriers to transition, such as a lack of specific adult provider referrals, may be addressed with more robust preparation by pediatric providers and care coordination. Further study is needed to evaluate strategies to improve young adult self-care in the setting of competing life priorities. (Endocr Pract. 2013;19:946-952)     

Gender differences in adiponectin and low-grade inflammation among individuals with normal glucose tolerance,prediabetes, and type 2 diabetes

Background: Women with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus have a higher relative risk of cardiovascular disease than do men. The reason for this is unknown.Objective: We studied the gender differences in adiponectin and in low-grade inflammation, measured by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), in individuals with normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes, and type 2 diabetes.Methods: In this population-based, cross-sectional study, all individuals born in 1942, 1947, 1952, 1957, and 1962 in Pieksämäki, East Finland, were recruited for participation. A 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and lipid panel were performed, and concentrations of adiponectin, hs-CRP, and IL-1RA were measured. The World Health Organization diagnostic criteria for diabetes and prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance) were used. Statistical comparisons between men and women were performed by a bootstrap-type ANCOVA.Results: The eligible population included 1294 middle-aged individuals, and of these, 904 (406 men and 498 women) had complete data and were included in the analyses. Absolute adiponectin concentrations were significantly higher in women at all levels of glucose tolerance (normal, prediabetes, and type 2 diabetes), but the gender ratio (women to men) for adiponectin concentrations decreased linearly (P = 0.011) from normal glucose tolerance (1.61; 95% CI, 1.48–1.75) to prediabetes (1.57; 95% CI, 1.36–1.83) and diabetes (1.16; 95% CI, 0.87–1.53). Among participants with normal glucose tolerance, no significant difference was found between the sexes in hs-CRP or IL-1RA. Among patients with prediabetes or diabetes, women had significantly higher concentrations than did men for hs-CRP (for prediabetes, 2.0 vs 1.5 mg/L; ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04–1.85) and IL-1RA (for prediabetes, 255 vs 178 pg/mL; ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.121.83). The gender ratios (women to men) increased linearly from normal glucose tolerance to prediabetes and type 2 diabetes for both hs-CRP (P = 0.019) and IL-1RA (P = 0.013).Conclusions: Adiponectin concentrations in women decreased relatively more compared with men across individuals with normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes, and type 2 diabetes, whereas inflammatory markers increased relatively more in women. Higher inflammatory stress in women than in men with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes may explain their relatively higher cardiovascular disease risk.     

FINDRISK questionnaire combined with HbA1c testing as a potential screening strategy for undiagnosed diabetes in a healthy population

Despite the efforts to control the epidemic of diabetes the total number of people living with diabetes is still steadily rising. In order to detect people at risk, cost-effective, convenient, and sensitive screening tools to assess the diabetes risk and to detect undiagnosed type 2 diabetes need to be developed and implemented in the primary care setting. To evaluate the combination of the well established FINDRISK questionnaire and HbA1c testing as a potential screening strategy the data obtained from 671 blood donors were analyzed for a potential correlation with the results of an oral glucose tolerance test. Based on the oral glucose tolerance test, 65 blood donors (9.7%) were newly diagnosed with diabetes, 336 (50.1%) with prediabetes, and 270 (40.2%) had a normal test result. Of the 401 blood donors diagnosed with prediabetes or diabetes 322 (80.3%) had a HbA1c between 5.7% and 6.4% and 27 (6.7%) with a HbA1c of 6.5% or greater. The majority of the blood donors newly diagnosed with diabetes or prediabetes (n=327) had a FINDRISK result of 12 points or higher. ROC analyses confirmed that the optimal cut off levels were for FINDRISK ≥ 12 points and for HbA1c ≥ 5.9%. Thus, a 3-step screening strategy applying the FINDRISK questionnaire followed by HbA1c testing and performing an oral glucose tolerance test on selected individuals could be a cost-saving approach for screening large populations and identifying people at risk for diabetes or undiagnosed diabetes.