Magnitude of benefit from earlier thrombolytic treatment in acute myocardial infarction: new evidence from Grampian region early anistreplase trial (GREAT)

OBJECTIVE--To generalise from the results of the Grampian region early anistreplase trial (GREAT) and to express the benefit of earlier thrombolysis in terms of lives saved per hour of earlier treatment. DESIGN--Multivariate analysis of a randomised double blind trial. SETTING--29 rural practices in Grampian region and teaching hospitals in Aberdeen. SUBJECTS--311 patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction and without contraindications to thrombolysis who were seen by their general practitioners within four hours of the start of symptoms. INTERVENTIONS--Anisterplase 30 units given intravenously, either by general practitioners before hospitalisation or later in hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death within 30 months of entry into trial. RESULTS--Death within 30 months was positively related to age (P < 0.0001) and to delay between start of symptoms and thrombolytic treatment (P = 0.0004). However, the probability of dying rose exponentially with earlier presentation, so death within 30 months was negatively related to the logarithm of the time of randomisation (P = 0.0163). In patients presenting two hours after start of symptoms each hour''s delay in receiving thrombolysis led to the loss of 21 lives per 1000 within 30 days (95% confidence interval 1 to 94 lives per 1000) (P = 0.03) and 69 lives per 1000 within 30 months (16 to 141 lives per 1000) (P = 0.0004). CONCLUSIONS--The magnitude of the benefit from earlier thrombolysis is such that giving thrombolytic treatment to patients with acute myocardial infarction should be accorded the same degree of urgency as the treatment of cardiac arrest.     

Cost of surfactant replacement treatment for severe neonatal respiratory distress syndrome: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the cost of treating babies with severe respiratory distress syndrome with natural porcine surfactant. DESIGN--Retrospective controlled survey. SETTING--Regional neonatal intensive care unit, Belfast. PATIENTS--33 Preterm babies with severe respiratory distress syndrome who were enrolled in a European multicentre trial during 1985-7. 19 Babies were treated with surfactant and 14 served as controls. INTERVENTIONS--Treatment with natural porcine surfactant. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Cost associated with surfactant replacement treatment per extra survivor in the treatment group and cost per quality adjusted life year for each extra survivor. RESULTS--Fifteen (79%) of the 19 treated babies and five (36%) of the 14 control babies survived. On average, the control babies required 20 days in hospital compared with 61 days for the treated babies (or 95 [corrected] days per extra survivor in the treatment group). The cost per extra survivor in the treatment group was pounds 13,720, with the cost per quality adjusted life year estimated at pounds 710. CONCLUSION--These costs compare favourably with those of established forms of treatment in adults. Thus surfactant replacement treatment for severe respiratory distress syndrome is fairly inexpensive and cost effective.     

Feasibility,safety, and efficacy of domiciliary thrombolysis by general practitioners: Grampian region early anistreplase trial. GREAT Group.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of domiciliary thrombolysis by general practitioners. DESIGN--Randomised double blind parallel group trial of anistreplase 30 units intravenously and placebo given either at home or in hospital. SETTING--29 rural practices in Grampian admitting patients to teaching hospitals in Aberdeen (average distance 36 (range 16-62) miles). PATIENTS--311 patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction and no contraindications to thrombolytic therapy seen at home within four hours of onset of symptoms. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Time saving, adverse events, Q wave infarction, left ventricular function. RESULTS--Anistreplase was administered at home 101 minutes after onset of symptoms, while anistreplase was given in hospital 240 minutes after onset of symptoms (median times). Adverse events after thrombolysis were infrequent and, apart from cardiac arrest, not a serious problem when they occurred in the community: seven of 13 patients were resuscitated after cardiac arrest out of hospital. By three months after trial entry the relative reduction of deaths from all causes in patients given thrombolytic therapy at home was 49% (13/163 (8.0%) v 23/148 (15.5%); difference -7.6% (95% confidence interval -14.7% to -0.4%), p = 0.04). Full thickness Q wave infarction was less common in patients with confirmed infarction receiving treatment at home (65/122 (53.3%) v 76/112 (67.9%); difference -14.6% (95% confidence interval -27.0% to -2.2%), p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS--General practitioners provided rapid pre-hospital coronary care of a high standard. Compared with later administration in hospital, giving anistreplase at home resulted in reduction in mortality, fewer cardiac arrests, fewer Q wave infarcts, and better left ventricular function. Benefits were most marked where thrombolytic therapy was administered within two hours of the onset of symptoms.     

Attitudes of general practitioners to prehospital thrombolysis.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate reasons for general practitioners not giving thrombolytic treatment to eligible patients with acute myocardial infarction. DESIGN--Postal questionnaires were sent to 424 general practitioners. SUBJECTS--97 general practitioners who had taken part in the Grampian region early anistreplase trial, 185 whose practices in Scotland were at least 24 km from a district general hospital, and 142 who had attended postgraduate conferences at which thrombolysis had been discussed; 87, 158, and 125 respectively responded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Answers to questions about readiness to use thrombolytic treatment. RESULTS--Response rate was 87% (370/424). Almost all respondents (350) were convinced of benefits of thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction, and 277 were convinced that there were additional benefits from its administration in the community at first opportunity. Most doctors working 16 km or more from hospital thought that giving treatment at home would appreciably save time (200/274). Most doctors agreed that they could make time to give thrombolytic treatment (278), and would be willing to record an electrocardiogram (284), and would be able to interpret it (280). Sixty four respondents (17%) reported using thrombolytic treatment in previous year. Among non-users, 150 (49%) were unwilling to use thrombolytic treatment without further training. While many non-users (210 (69%)) were willing to use thrombolytic treatment without encouragement from Department of Health, 184 (60%) were unwilling to use it unless encouraged to do so by their local cardiologist. CONCLUSIONS--The need to become better informed about thrombolysis and lack of encouragement from local cardiologists were important factors preventing wider use of thrombolytic treatment in the community by general practitioners.     

Strategies for reducing coronary risk factors in primary care: which is most cost effective?

OBJECTIVE--To examine the relative cost effectiveness of a range of screening and intervention strategies for preventing coronary heart disease in primary care. SUBJECTS--7840 patients aged 35-64 years who were participants in a trial of modifying coronary heart disease risk factors in primary care. DESIGN--Effectiveness of interventions assumed and the potential years of life gained estimated from a risk equation calculated from Framingham study data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--The cost per year of life gained. RESULTS--The most cost effective strategy was minimal screening of blood pressure and personal history of vascular disease, which cost 310 pounds-930 pounds per year of life gained for men and 1100 pounds-3460 pounds for women excluding treatment of raised blood pressure. The extra cost per life year gained by adding smoking history to the screening was 400 pounds-6300 pounds in men. All strategies were more cost effective in men than in women and more cost effective in older age groups. Lipid lowering drugs accounted for at least 70% of the estimated costs of all strategies. Cost effectiveness was greatest when drug treatment was limited to those with cholesterol concentrations above 9.5 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--Universal screening and intervention strategies are an inefficient approach to reducing the coronary heart disease burden. A basic strategy for screening and intervention, targeted at older men with raised blood pressure and limiting the use of cholesterol lowering drugs to those with very high cholesterol concentrations would be most cost effective.     

Cost effectiveness of lowering cholesterol concentration with statins in patients with and without pre-existing coronary heart disease: life table method applied to health authority population.

OBJECTIVES--To estimate the cost effectiveness of statins in lowering serum cholesterol concentration in people at varying risk of fatal cardiovascular disease and to explore the implications of changing the criteria for intervention on cost and cost effectiveness for a purchasing authority. DESIGN--A life table method was used to model the effect of treatment with a statin on survival over 10 years in men and women aged 45-64. The costs of intervention were estimated from the direct costs of treatment, offset by savings associated with a reduction in coronary angiographies, non-fatal myocardial infarctions, and revascularisation procedures. The robustness of the model to various assumptions was tested in a sensitivity analysis. SETTING--Population of a typical district health authority. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Cost per life year saved. RESULTS--The average cost effectiveness of treating men aged 45-64 with no history of coronary heart disease and a cholesterol concentration > 6.5 mmol/l for 10 years with a statin was 136,000 pounds per life year saved. The average cost effectiveness for patients with pre-existing coronary heart disease and a cholesterol concentration > 5.4 mmol/l was 32,000 pounds. These averages hide enormous differences in cost effectiveness between groups at different risk, ranging from 6000 pounds per life year in men aged 55-64 who have had a myocardial infarction and whose cholesterol concentration is above 7.2 mmol/l to 361,000 pounds per life year saved in women aged 45-54 with angina and a cholesterol concentration of 5.5-6.0 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--Lowering serum cholesterol concentration in patients with and without preexisting coronary heart disease is effective and safe, but treatment for all those in whom treatment is likely to be effective is not sustainable within current NHS resources. Data on cost effectiveness data should be taken into account when assessing who should be eligible for treatment.     

Costs and cost effectiveness of cardiovascular screening and intervention: the British family heart study.

OBJECTIVE--To measure costs and cost effectiveness of the British family heart study cardiovascular screening and intervention programme. DESIGN--Cost effectiveness analysis of randomised controlled trial. Clinical and resource use data taken from trial and unit cost data from external estimates. SETTING--13 general practices across Britain. SUBJECTS--4185 men aged 40-59 and their 2827 partners. INTERVENTION--Nurse led programme using a family centered approach, with follow up according to degree of risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost of the programme it self; overall short term cost to NHS; cost per 1% reduction in coronary risk at one year. RESULTS--Estimated cost of putting the programme into practice for one year was 63 pounds per person (95% confidence interval 60 pounds to 65 pounds). The overall short term cost to the health service was 77 pounds per man (29 pounds to 124 pounds) but only 13 pounds per woman (-48 pounds to 74 pounds), owing to differences in utilisation of other health service resources. The cost per 1% reduction in risk was 5.08 pounds per man (5.92 pounds including broader health service costs) and 5.78 pounds per woman (1.28 pounds taking into account wider health service savings). CONCLUSIONS--The direct cost of the programme to a four partner practice of 7500 patients would be approximately 58,000 pounds. Annually, 8300 pounds would currently be paid to a practice of this size working to the maximum target on the health promotion bands, plus any additional reimbursement of practice staff salaries for which the practice qualified. The broader short term costs to the NHS may augment these costs for men but offset them considerably for women.     

Costs and benefits of cervical screening. II. Is it worthwhile reducing the screening interval from 5 to 3 years?

A reduction in screening interval from 5 years to 3 years would greatly increase the cost of the programme, but would save few extra lives. The cost per life saved would be around £250 000 at 1995 prices, or around £8000 per life per year saved. There would in addition be human costs for the women screened. The opportunity cost of reducing the interval may be too great, since it is likely that the Health Service would achieve greater health benefits by investing the funds in other health care activities.     

Cost effectiveness of incremental programmes for lowering serum cholesterol concentration: is individual intervention worth while?

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the relative cost effectiveness of various cholesterol lowering programmes. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis. SETTING--Norwegian cholesterol lowering programme in Norwegian male population aged 40-49 (n = 200,000), whose interventions comprise a population based promotion of healthier eating habits, dietary treatment (subjects with serum cholesterol concentration 6.0-7.9 mmol/l), and dietary and drug treatment combined (serum cholesterol concentration greater than or equal to 8.0 mmol/l). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Marginal cost effectiveness ratios--that is, the ratio of net treatment costs (cost of treatment minus savings in treatment costs for coronary heart disease) to life years gained and to quality of life years (QALYs) saved. RESULTS--The cost per life year gained over 20 years of a population based strategy was projected to be 12 pounds. For an individual strategy based on dietary treatment the cost was about 12,400 pounds per life year gained and 111,600 pounds if drugs were added for 50% of the subjects with serum cholesterol concentrations greater than or equal to 8.0 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--The results underline the importance of marginal cost effectiveness analyses for incremental programmes of health care. The calculations of QALYs, though speculative, indicate that individual intervention should be implemented cautiously and within more selected groups than currently recommended. Drugs should be reserved for subjects with genetic hypercholesterolaemia or who are otherwise at very high risk of arteriosclerotic disease.     

Cost effectiveness of day and inpatient psychiatric treatment: results of a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare direct and indirect costs of day and inpatient treatment of acute psychiatric illness. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial with outcome and costs assessed over 12 months after the date of admission. SETTING: Teaching hospital in an inner city area. SUBJECTS: 179 patients with acute psychiatric illness referred for admission who were suitable for random allocation to day hospital or inpatient treatment. 77 (43%) patients had schizophrenia. INTERVENTIONS: Routine inpatient or day hospital treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Direct and indirect costs over 12 months, clinical symptoms, social functioning, and burden on relatives over the follow up period. RESULTS: Clinical and social outcomes were similar at 12 months, except that inpatients improved significantly faster than day patients and burden on relatives was significantly less in the day hospital group at one year. Median direct costs to the hospital were 1923 pounds (95% confidence interval 750 pounds to 3174 pounds) per patient less for day hospital treatment than inpatient treatment. Indirect costs were greater for day patients; when these were included, overall day hospital treatment was 2165 pounds cheaper than inpatient treatment (95% confidence interval of median difference 737 pounds to 3593 pounds). Including costs to informants when appropriate meant that day hospital treatment was 1994 pounds per patient cheaper (95% confidence interval 600 pounds to 3543 pounds). CONCLUSIONS: Day patient treatment is cheaper for the 30-40% of potential admissions that can be treated in this way. Carers of day hospital patients may bear additional costs. Carers of all patients with acute psychiatric illness are often themselves severely distressed at the time of admission, but day hospital treatment leads to less burden on carers in the long term.     

Influences of practice characteristics on prescribing in fundholding and non-fundholding general practices: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the variation in prescribing among general practices by examining the contribution to this variation of fundholding, training status, partnership status, and the level of deprivation in the practice population and to investigate the extent to which fundholding has been responsible for any changes in prescribing. DESIGN: Analysis of prescribing data (PACT) for the years 1990-1 (before fundholding) and 1993-4 (after fundholding), Use of multiple linear regressions to investigate the variation among practices in total prescribing costs (net ingredient cost per prescribing units), and mean cost per item in each of the two years and also the change in these variables between years. SETTING: Former Mersey region. SUBJECTS: 384 practices. RESULTS: The models developed explained the variation in cost per item (43% of variation explained for 1990-1, 38% for 1993-4) and prescribing volume (34% for 1990-1, 38% for 1993-4) better than the variation in total prescribing costs (3% for 1990-1, 7% for 1993-4). The models developed to explain the change in these variables between years did not explain more than 10% of the variation. Most of the explained variation in the change in total prescribing costs was accounted for by fundholding. Of the pounds 3.71 saved by first wave fundholders compared with non-fundholders pounds 3.57 was attributable to fundholding alone. CONCLUSION: In neither year did fundholding make a major contribution to the variation in prescribing behaviour among practices, which was better explained by deprivation, training status, and partnership status, but it did seem largely responsible for differences in the rise of total prescribing costs between fundholders and non fundholders.     

What can be concluded from the Oxcheck and British family heart studies: commentary on cost effectiveness analyses.

OBJECTIVES--To provide a commentary on the economic evaluations of the Oxcheck and British family heart studies: direct comparison of their relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness; comparisons with other interventions; and consideration of problems encountered. DESIGN--Modelling from cost and effectiveness data to estimate of cost per life year gained. SUBJECTS--Middle aged men and women. INTERVENTIONS--Screening for cardiovascular risk factors followed by appropriate lifestyle advice and drug intervention in general practice, and other primary coronary risk management strategies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Life years gained; cost per life year gained. RESULTS--Depending on the assumed duration of risk reduction, the programme cost per discounted life year gained ranged from 34,800 pounds for a 1 year duration to 1500 pounds for 20 years for the British family heart study and from 29,300 pounds to 900 pounds for Oxcheck. These figures exclude broader net clinical and cost effects and longer term clinical and cost effects other than coronary mortality. CONCLUSIONS--Despite differences in underlying methods, the estimates in the two economic analyses of the studies can be directly compared. Neither study was large enough to provide precise estimates of the overall net cost. Modelling to cost per life year gained provides more readily interpretable measures. These estimates emphasise the importance of the relatively weak evidence on duration effect. Only if the effect lasts at least five years is the Oxcheck programme likely to be cost effective. The effect must last for about 10 years to justify the extra cost associated with the British family heart study.     

Prescribing selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors as strategy for prevention of suicide.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate a policy to reduce the incidence of suicide by means of changing the prescribing of antidepressants from the older tricyclic antidepressants to the routine first line use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors or newer tricyclic and related antidepressants. DESIGN--Cost effectiveness analysis with sensitivity analyses using observational data on costs, volume of prescribing, deaths, and toxicity. SETTING--United Kingdom primary care. INTERVENTIONS--Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors or newer tricyclic and related antidepressants compared with the use of older tricyclics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost per life saved and cost per life year saved. RESULTS--The potential number of lives which may be saved from a switch to the routine first line use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors is between 300 and 450 each year. The cost per life year gained ranges from 19,000 pounds to 173,000 pounds, depending on the assumptions used. The cost per life year gained through the use of the newer tricyclic and related antidepressants is considerably lower. CONCLUSIONS--The cost per life year gained through avoiding suicides by the routine first line use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors is likely to be high. The new tricyclics and related drugs are of similar toxicity to the serotonin reuptake inhibitors but are considerably cheaper and so are most cost effective for this purpose. Further research is required on such prescribing. Because of the great uncertainties the shift to considerably more expensive options must be further investigated.     

Recruitment methods for screening programmes: trial of a new method within a regional osteoporosis study.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the response rates and operating costs of three recruitment methods within a regional osteoporosis screening programme. DESIGN--Randomised trial of three types of invitation letter: one offering fixed appointments with option to change time, one offering fixed appointments but requiring telephoned confirmation of intention to attend, and one inviting recipient to telephone to make an appointment. SETTING--Osteoporosis screening unit, Aberdeen. SUBJECTS--1200 women aged 45-49 years living within 32 km of Aberdeen and randomly selected from the community health index. 400 women were randomised to each appointment method. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Numbers attending for screening; default rate among women who confirmed appointments; social class of attenders; cost per appointment slot and per completed scan. RESULTS--299 (75%), 277 (69%), and 217 (54%) women were scanned after fixed, confirmable, and open invitations respectively. Women who attended were given a questionnaire, and 694 (87.5%) returned it. No significant differences were found in the social class of attenders among the three methods. Of the 514 women who made or confirmed appointments, 494 attended for a scan. Total costs per scan were 25.00 pounds, 21.40 pounds, and 21.00 pounds for fixed, confirmable, and open invitations respectively. CONCLUSIONS--The offer of a fixed appointment requiring telephoned confirmation has the potential to reduce the costs of scanning without exaggerating any social bias or significantly reducing response rates provided that empty appointments can be rebooked at short notice.     

Costs and cost effectiveness of health checks conducted by nurses in primary care: the Oxcheck study.

OBJECTIVE--To measure the costs and cost effectiveness of the Oxcheck cardiovascular risk factor screening and intervention programme. DESIGN--Cost effectiveness analysis of a randomised controlled trial using clinical and economic data taken from the trial. SETTING--Five general practices in Luton and Dunstable, England. SUBJECTS--2205 patients who attended a health check in 1989-90 and were scheduled for re-examination in 1992-3 (intervention group); 1916 patients who attended their initial health check in 1992-3 (control group). Participants were men and women aged 35-64 years. INTERVENTION--Health check conducted by nurse, with health education and follow up according to degree of risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost of health check programme; cost per 1% reduction in coronary risk. RESULTS--Health check and follow up cost 29.27 pounds per patient. Estimated programme cost per 1% reduction in coronary risk per participant was between 1.46 pounds and 2.25 pounds; it was nearly twice as much for men as women. CONCLUSIONS--The cost to the practice of implementing Oxcheck-style health checks in an average sized practice of 7500 patients would be 47,000 pounds, a proportion of which could be paid for through staff pay reimbursements and Band Three health promotion target payments. This study highlights the considerable difficulties faced when calculating the costs and benefits of a health promotion programme. Economic evaluations should be integrated into the protocols of randomised controlled trials to enable judgments to be made on the relative cost effectiveness of different prevention strategies.     

Integrated care for diabetes: clinical,psychosocial, and economic evaluation. Diabetes Integrated Care Evaluation Team.

OBJECTIVES--To evaluate integrated care for diabetes in clinical, psychosocial, and economic terms. DESIGN--Pragmatic randomised trial. SETTING--Hospital diabetic clinic and three general practice groups in Grampian. PATIENTS--274 adult diabetic patients attending a hospital clinic and registered with one of three general practices. INTERVENTION--Random allocation to conventional hospital clinic care or integrated care. Integrated care patients seen in general practice every three or four months and in the hospital clinic annually. General practitioners were given written guidelines for integrated care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Metabolic control, psychosocial status, knowledge of diabetes, beliefs about control of diabetes, satisfaction with treatment, disruption of normal activities, numbers of consultations and admissions, frequency of metabolic monitoring, costs to patients and NHS. RESULTS--A higher proportion of patients defaulted from conventional care (14 (10%)) than from integrated care (4 (3%), 95% confidence interval of difference 2% to 13%). After two years no significant differences were found between the groups in metabolic control, psychosocial status, knowledge, beliefs about control, satisfaction with treatment, unscheduled admissions, or disruption of normal activities. Integrated care was as effective for insulin dependent as non-insulin dependent patients. Patients in integrated care had more visits and higher frequencies of examination. Costs to patients were lower in integrated care (mean 1.70 pounds) than in conventional care (8 pounds). 88% of patients who experienced integrated care wished to continue with it. CONCLUSIONS--This model of integrated care for diabetes was at least as effective as conventional hospital clinic care.     

Mammography screening: an incremental cost effectiveness analysis of double versus single reading of mammograms.

OBJECTIVE--To compare mammography reading by one radiologist with independent reading by two radiologists. DESIGN--An observational non-randomised trial at St Margaret''s Hospital, Epping. SUBJECTS-- 33 734 consecutive attenders for breast screening in the main trial and a sample of 132 attenders for assessment who provided data on private costs. INTERVENTIONS--Three reporting policies were compared: single reading, consensus double reading, and non-consensus double reading. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Numbers of cancers detected, recall rates, screening and assessment costs, and cost effectiveness ratios. RESULTS--A policy of double reading followed by consensus detected an additional nine cancers per 10 000 women screened (95% confidence interval 5 to 13) compared with single reading. A non-consensus double reading policy detected an additional 10 cancers per 10 000 women screened (95% confidence interval 6 to 14). The difference in numbers of cancers detected between the consensus and non-consensus double reading policies was not significant (95% confidence interval -0.2 to 2.2). The proportion of women recalled for assessment after consensus double reading was significantly lower than after single reading (difference 2.7%; 95% confidence interval 2.4% to 3.0%). The recall rate with the non-consensus policy was significantly higher than with single reading (difference 3.0%; 2.5% to 3.5%). Consensus double reading cost less than single reading (saving 4853 pounds per 10 000 women screened). Non-consensus double reading cost more than single reading (difference 19 259 pounds per 10 000 women screened). CONCLUSIONS--In the screening unit studied a consensus double reading policy was more effective and less costly than a single reading policy.     

Evaluation of a proposed breast cancer screening regimen.

The Forrest working group on breast cancer screening recommended routine mammography for women in the United Kingdom at ages 50, 53, 56, 59, 62, and 65. Benefits were costed at about 3000 pounds for each life year recovered, but there was no estimate of the cost of each life saved, and the consequent reduction in mortality from breast cancer in the general population of the United Kingdom was not estimated. The present study addressed both of these issues using an interactive computer modelling process. Long term savings were calculated at 900 deaths a year in England and Wales--that is, about 8% of the total deaths from breast cancer--and 9% of life years currently lost. The cost of each death saved from breast cancer was estimated at 39,000 pounds.     

The acquired immune deficiency syndrome and epidemic of infection with human immunodeficiency virus: costs of care and prevention in an inner London district.

The epidemic of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) necessitates early planning of services and allocation of resources. The use of hospital resources by patients with AIDS and the planned additional costs of clinical and preventive services for the epidemic of infection with HIV were calculated for an inner London health district that has treated 18% of the cases in the United Kingdom. Patients with AIDS required on average 50 days of inpatient hospital care each at an estimated current average lifetime cost of pounds 6800. These costs, however, underestimated the additional capital and revenue costs of planned new preventive and treatment services, estimated as being pounds 388,000 revenue and pounds 472,000 capital for 1986-7. It is important to invest now in preventive services throughout the United Kingdom to reduce the future social and financial costs of AIDS.     

Cost analysis of early discharge after hip fracture.

OBJECTIVE--To ascertain the economic impact of an early discharge scheme for hip fracture patients. DESIGN--Population based study comparing costs of care for patients who had "hospital at home" as an option for rehabilitation and those who had no early discharge service available in their area of residence. SETTING--District hospital orthopaedic and rehabilitation wards and community hospital at home scheme. PATIENTS--1104 consecutively admitted patients with fractured neck of femur. 24 patients from outside the district were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost per patient episode and number of bed days spent in hospital. RESULTS--Patients with the hospital at home option spent significantly less time as inpatients (mean of 32.5 v 41.7 days; p < 0.001). Those patients who were discharged early spent a mean of 11.5 days under hospital at home care. The total direct cost to the health service was significantly less for those patients with access to early discharge than those with no early discharge option (4884 pounds v 5606 pounds; p = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS--About 40% of patients with fractured neck of femur are suitable for early discharge to a scheme such as hospital at home. The availability of such a scheme leads to lower direct costs of rehabilitative care despite higher readmission costs. These savings accrue largely from shorter stays in orthopaedic and geriatric wards.