Quantitative estimation of the modification of mutagenic effect in experiments on mammals using a regression modification index

A regressive modification index (RMI = beta M - beta/beta.100) is suggested to quantitatively evaluate modification of the mutagenic effect in experiments on mammals. It is based on the correlation of regressive equation "dose mutagen--effects" coefficients beta M and beta in variants with and without modifier, respectively. Regressive modification indices of various doses of phenobarbital are calculated in experiments on rats with cyclophosphamide and fotrin.     

Assessment of radiation exposure of murine rodents at the EURT territories

The study provides data on contemporary levels of radiation exposure of organs and tissues of murine rodents (several species of mice and voles) inhabiting the East-Ural Radioactive Trace. The estimation procedure involves the most advanced approach based on application of appropriate voxel phantom and biokinetic model. Input data for dose assessment are the results of measurements of skeletal ⁹⁰Sr activity concentration. Maximal internal dose to skeleton, accumulated during 45 days, is 303 mGy. Median internal dose rates on the last day before trapping were 0.83, 0.092 and 0.023 mGy/day for animals trapped at the sites with initial (1957) ⁹⁰Sr surface contamination >37 MBq/m², 18.5–37 MBq/m² and 0.074–18.5 MBq/m² respectively. Taking to account internal and external exposures, upper boundary of the ICRP Derived Consideration Reference Level (DCRL) is exceeded on the territory with maximal level of the initial ⁹⁰Sr surface contamination. On the territory with 18.5–37 MBq/m², whole body mean dose rates to murine rodents exceed the lower boundary of DCRL. On the areas with lower level of surface contamination, even the 90-th percentile of dose rate is below the DCRL.     

Relationships estimated by isonymy among the Italo-Greco villages of southern Italy

Surnames of parents and grandparents were collected from 1993 children in the primary schools of the thirteen Italo-Greco communes that lie in two areas, four communes in Reggio Calabria in the "toe" of Italy and nine in Lecce in the "heel." The coefficients of relationship by isonymy show almost no relationship between the two areas. The smaller area in Reggio Calabria Province has consistently larger coefficients of relationship between communes than the larger area in Lecce Province. The difference can be ascribed to greater accumulated random isonymy in the smaller area. These populations are not genetic isolates, but each area shows a degree of cohesiveness with respect to surnames that suggests that they are genetically somewhat distinct. Contiguous pairs of communes tend to have higher coefficients of relationship than pairs of communes separated by intervening communes.     

A method for calculating the dose absorbed by terrestrial animals to assess the environmental impact of radioactive contamination

A method for calculating the exposures of terrestrial animals in areas contaminated with radionuclides using a point source dose function is presented. To take into account scattered γ-radiation, the Berger formula for dose buildup factor in an infinite air medium has been parameterized. In the dosimetric model proposed, an animal phantom is presented as a parallelepiped to estimate external exposures and as a tissue-quivalent sphere to estimate internal doses. Using analytical expressions, dose rate conversion coefficients for external and internal exposures of animals have been estimated for individual radionuclides. For energies of γ-rays above 50 keV, the results are in good agreement with those estimated by the Monte Carlo method for ellipsoidal phantoms of animals.     

External radiation doses from <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs to frog phantoms in a wetland area: in situ measurements and dose model calculations

For assessment of external radiation doses to frogs in a wetland area contaminated with ¹³⁷Cs, frog phantoms were constructed from polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). The frog phantoms contained thermoluminescence (TL) chips and were used in situ at two study sites to measure doses. To test if higher doses are received by the sensitive skin of frogs, extra-thin TL chips were applied close to the surface of the frog phantoms. In addition, the measured doses were compared with those calculated on the basis of soil sample data from the wetland multiplied with dose-conversion coefficients from the US Department of Energy’s RESRAD-BIOTA code and from the ERICA assessment tool. Measured doses were generally lower than those calculated to ellipsoids used to model frogs. Higher doses were measured at the frog phantoms’ surfaces in comparison to inner parts at one of the two sites indicating that the frogs’ thin skin could receive a higher radiation dose than expected. In the efforts to assure protection of non-human biota, in situ measurements with phantoms provide valuable dose information and input to dose models in site-specific risk assessments of areas contaminated with radionuclides.     

Age specific formation of doses in children exposed to radioactive caesium following the accident in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

Individual measurement data on radiological surveillance of people residing in the territories most radioactively contaminated following the Chernobyl accident are analyzed to provide a comparison of doses from caesium radionuclides to children and adults. The external doses to children does not exceed those to adult inhabitants of the same settlement. By the results of surveillance in 1986 more than 80 thousand inhabitants of the western areas of Bryansk region, a specific activity of caesium radionuclides and corresponding internal radiation dose rate in a number of settlements appeared at children age under 3 years old exceeding the appropriate parameters for adult inhabitants. Among persons evacuated from the contaminated areas, such excess in day of departure from an area averaged 3.8 for surveyed pairs the child-parent.     

Intrusion experiments to measure territory size: development of the method, tests through simulations, and application in the frog Allobates femoralis

Territoriality is a widespread behaviour in animals and its analysis is crucial in several areas of behavioural, ecological and evolutionary research. Commonly, territory size is assessed through territory mapping and the application of simple area estimators such as minimum convex polygons. In the present study we demonstrate that territory size can be determined adequately with an active approach through intrusion experiments, a technique that is commonly used in behavioural research in other contexts. Tests with simulated data indicate that a minimum of twelve trials needs to be performed to establish reliable orders of relative territory size. To estimate absolute territory size, detailed hull techniques are most appropriate when analyzing point patterns of intrusion experiments, while the local convex hull estimator enables the construction of internal utilization distributions based on such point patterns. Additionally we suggest a 'stretch the centre' approach to emphasize the actual process of intrusion experiments in the construction of internal utilization distributions. To demonstrate the utility of the method, we apply all findings from the simulations to data from fieldwork with the model species Allobates femoralis, a territorial aromobatid frog from the lowland rainforest of French Guiana.     

A practical method for assessment of dose conversion coefficients for aquatic biota

Radiological impact assessment for flora and fauna requires adequate dosimetric data. Due to the variability of habitats, shapes, and masses of the non-human biota, assessment of doses is a challenging task. External and internal dose conversion coefficients for photons and electrons have been systematically calculated by Monte Carlo methods for spherical and ellipsoidal shapes in water medium. An interpolation method has been developed to approximate absorbed fractions for elliptical shape organisms from absorbed fractions for spherical shapes with reasonable accuracy. The method allows an evaluation of dose conversion coefficients for arbitrary ellipsoids for photon and electron sources with energies from 10 keV to 5 MeV, and for organism masses in the range from 10(-6) to 10(3) kg. As an example of the application of the method, a set of dose coefficients for aquatic organisms discussed as reference animals and plants in a draft of an up-coming publication of the International Commission on Radiological Protection has been determined.     

Thyroid dose assessment for the Chernigov region (Ukraine): Estimation based on131I thyroid measurements and extrapolation of the results to districts without monitoring

Based on the results of¹³¹I thyroid activity measurements in three districts of the Chernigov region (Ukraine), individual doses were calculated and an approach of the age dependence of the average thyroid exposure was derived. Using the relationships between the thyroid doses and the¹³⁷Cs deposition as well as the location relative to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), age-dependent average thyroid doses were extrapolated also for those settlements of this region where no monitoring measurements have been carried out. The highest doses were found in the west of the region with the lowest distance to the Chernobyl NPP. In this part, the highest mean of the thyroid dose in a settlement was 3.3 Gy for infants and 0.5 Gy for adults. The collective thyroid dose was 31000 and 27 000 person-Gy for children and adults, respectively. Based on this assessment, 140 and 21 excess thyroid cancer cases are predicted for children and adults, respectively. In the years 1989 to 1991, in the whole contaminated territory of the Ukraine 0.4–1.2 cases per 100000 children were observed. Although the absolute numbers are very small, this indicates the possibility of an increase in thyroid cancer morbidity among children. The same trend also seems to be indicated in the Chernigov region. A careful epidemiological study in the future is necessary to enable a final evaluation of radioinduced cancers in this region.     

The concept of the effective dose a proposal for the combination of organ doses

Irradiation of the human body by external or internal sources leads mostly to a simultaneous exposure of several organs. However, so far no clear and consistent recommendations for the combination of organ doses and the assessment of an exposure limit under such irradiation conditions are available. Following a proposal described in ICRP-publication 14 one possible concept for the combination of organ doses is discussed in this paper. This concept is based on the assumption that at low doses the total radiation detriment to the exposed person is given by the sum of radiation detriments to the single organs. Taking into account a linear dose-risk relationship, the sum of weighted organ doses leads to the definition of an "Effective Dose". The applicability and consequences of this "Effective Dose Concept" are discussed especially with regard to the assessment of the maximum permissible intake of radionuclides into the human body and the combination of external and internal exposure.     

Analysis of risk factors for the formation of internal exposure dose to the rural population and effectiveness of preventive actions in agriculture in the long-term after the Chernobyl Accident

The regularities in the formation of internal exposure doses to the population living in the Chernobyl affected areas are described. The factors responsible for changes in doses are identified and their significance is assessed. The effects of countermeasures on the radiation situation variations are estimated. The need for an addressed application of countermeasures is shown with taking into account types of rural settlements based on the radioecological factors responsible for dose formation in the population.     

External dose reconstruction for the former village of Metlino (Techa River,Russia) based on environmental surveys,luminescence measurements,and radiation transport modelling

In the first years of its operation, the Mayak Production Association, a facility part of the Soviet nuclear weapons program in the Southern Urals, Russia, discharged large amounts of radioactively contaminated effluent into the nearby Techa River, thus exposing the people living at this river to external and internal radiations. The Techa River Cohort is a cohort intensely studied in epidemiology to investigate the correlation between low-dose radiation and health effects on humans. For the individuals in the cohort, the Techa River Dosimetry System describes the accumulated dose in human organs and tissues. In particular, organ doses from external exposure are derived from estimates of dose rate in air on the Techa River banks which were estimated from measurements and Monte Carlo modelling. Individual doses are calculated in accordance with historical records of individuals’ residence histories, observational data of typical lifestyles for different age groups, and age-dependent conversion factors from air kerma to organ dose. The work here describes an experimentally independent assessment of the key input parameter of the dosimetry system, the integral air kerma, for the former village of Metlino, upper Techa River region. The aim of this work was thus to validate the Techa River Dosimetry System for the location of Metlino in an independent approach. Dose reconstruction based on dose measurements in bricks from a church tower and Monte Carlo calculations was used to model the historic air kerma accumulated in the time from 1949 to 1956 at the shoreline of the Techa River in Metlino. Main issues are caused by a change in the landscape after the evacuation of the village in 1956. Based on measurements and published information and data, two separate models for the historic pre-evacuation geometry and for the current geometry of Metlino were created. Using both models, a value for the air kerma was reconstructed, which agrees with that obtained in the Techa River Dosimetry System within a factor of two.     

The relative importance of prey availability and intruder pressure in feeding territory size regulation by harriers,Circus cyaneus

Summary The relative importance of prey availability and intruder pressure in the regulation of harrier (Circus cyaneus) territory size was investigated over two years using analytical methods chosen to permit comparison with Myers et al. (1979) study of sanderlings (Calidris alba). Relationships between territory area and two variables, prey type (mice; large, medium, and small birds) and intruder type (conspecific neighbors, conspecific floaters, and heterospecific floaters), and the consistency of these relationships between years, also were examined. Individual harrier territory areas were highly variable, ranging from 7.8 to 1249 ha in 1984/1985, and 3.9 to 71.3 ha in 1985/1986. Of the prey variables, only mouse availability was significantly inversely correlated with territory area in both years, and slopes resulting from correlations between the logarithms of these two variables did not differ significantly from — 1, the expected result if harriers were adjusting mouse availabilities. The abundance of mice in conjunction with their greater ease of capture relative to birds made them functionally more available, and hence harriers' primary prey. This may explain why mice, rather than birds, were apparently the defended resource. Of the intruder variables, neighbor variables were most strongly inversely cortelatd with territory area. Partial correlation analyses to determine the relative importance of intruder pressure and prey availability in regulating territory size revealed that in 1984/1985, mouse availability and intruder pressure were relatively independent and each explained some variation in territory area, whereas in 1985/1986, mouse availability, rather than intruder pressure, significantly explained all variation in territory area. Possible explanations for why territory sizes of harriers appear to be regulated more closely by food density, whereas territory sizes of sanderlings appear to be regulated more closely by intruder pressure, are based upon differences in 1) neighbor effects, 2) environmental ronmental variability, and 3) accuracy of resource assessment by intruders. The variation in intruder rates and prey availabilities observed between years suggests the need to conduct studies over several years in order to assess accurately the relative importance of these variables in territory-size regulation.     

The application and adaptation of ICRP internal dosimetry models to the calculation of bone marrow tissue doses from 90Sr for epidemiological studies of Techa River populations

The operation of the Mayak Production Association in the Southern Urals region of Russia, resulted in releases of large amounts of radioactive effluent into the Techa River during the period 1949-1956. The residents of the riverside communities were thus exposed to both external radiation, and internal radiation following ingestion of contaminated water and foodstuffs. One of the most important radionuclides for internal exposure was 90Sr. This paper gives a brief overview of the models provided by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), which are of interest for assessing internal doses from 90Sr. The application of these models to the calculation of red bone marrow doses for the fetus and infant from 90Sr intakes by the mother and the infant is illustrated by an example. A hypothetical individual born in 1951 is used as an example for dose calculations. The following doses due to intakes of 90Sr are taken into account: received in utero due to maternal intakes during pregnancy; received after birth from 90Sr accumulated by the fetus in utero; from intakes in breast milk; from intakes in the infant's diet after weaning. It is shown that doses to the fetus following maternal ingestion and subsequent transfer to the fetus via the placenta dominate the doses received for this particular individual for the first two years of life. Doses to the infant from intakes in breast milk are substantially lower but do make significant contributions to total doses in the first two years after birth. By about the age of two years residual 90Sr from placental transfer still contributes about the same dose as do intakes by the infant, but in later years doses from intakes by the infant dominate.     

Semiparametric Bayes Multiple Testing: Applications to Tumor Data

Summary In National Toxicology Program (NTP) studies, investigators want to assess whether a test agent is carcinogenic overall and specific to certain tumor types, while estimating the dose‐response profiles. Because there are potentially correlations among the tumors, a joint inference is preferred to separate univariate analyses for each tumor type. In this regard, we propose a random effect logistic model with a matrix of coefficients representing log‐odds ratios for the adjacent dose groups for tumors at different sites. We propose appropriate nonparametric priors for these coefficients to characterize the correlations and to allow borrowing of information across different dose groups and tumor types. Global and local hypotheses can be easily evaluated by summarizing the output of a single Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC). Two multiple testing procedures are applied for testing local hypotheses based on the posterior probabilities of local alternatives. Simulation studies are conducted and an NTP tumor data set is analyzed illustrating the proposed approach.     

Cancer incidence and mortality after low-dose radiation exposure: epidemiological aspects

Current recommendations for limiting exposure to ionizing radiation are based on the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation carcinogenesis under which every dose, no matter how low, carries with it some cancer risk. In this review, epidemiological evidences are discussed that the LNT hypothesis is incorrect at low doses. A large set of data was accumulated that showed that cancer risk after ordinarily encountered radiation exposure (natural background radiation, medical X-rays, etc.) is much lower than projections based on the LNT model. The discovery of the low-level radiation hormesis (stimulating effect) implies a non-linear dose-response curve in the low-dose region. The further studies in this field will provide new insights about the mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis.     

Cancer incidence and mortality after low-dosage radiation exposure: Epidemiological aspects

Current recommendations for limiting exposure to ionizing radiation are based on the linear no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation carcinogenesis under which every dose, no matter how low, bears some cancer risk. In this review, epidemiological evidence is discussed that the LNT hypothesis is incorrect at low doses. A large set of data was accumulated that show that cancer risk after ordinarily encountered radiation exposure (natural background radiation, medical X-rays, etc.) is much lower than estimates based on the LNT model. The discovery of low-level radiation hormesis (stimulating effect) implies a non-linear dose-response curve in the low-dosage region. Further studies in this field will provide new insights into the mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis.     

Regressive logistic models for familial diseases: a formulation assuming an underlying liability model

Statistical models have been developed to delineate the major-gene and non-major-gene factors accounting for the familial aggregation of complex diseases. The mixed model assumes an underlying liability to the disease, to which a major gene, a multifactorial component, and random environment contribute independently. Affection is defined by a threshold on the liability scale. The regressive logistic models assume that the logarithm of the odds of being affected is a linear function of major genotype, phenotypes of antecedents and other covariates. An equivalence between these two approaches cannot be derived analytically. I propose a formulation of the regressive logistic models on the supposition of an underlying liability model of disease. Relatives are assumed to have correlated liabilities to the disease; affected persons have liabilities exceeding an estimable threshold. Under the assumption that the correlation structure of the relatives' liabilities follows a regressive model, the regression coefficients on antecedents are expressed in terms of the relevant familial correlations. A parsimonious parameterization is a consequence of the assumed liability model, and a one-to-one correspondence with the parameters of the mixed model can be established. The logits, derived under the class A regressive model and under the class D regressive model, can be extended to include a large variety of patterns of family dependence, as well as gene-environment interactions.     

External exposure of the population living in areas of Russia contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident

An updated version of external dose modeling is presented with reference to the population in Russian areas contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident. An earlier version has been modified by applying a study time interval with a starting point immediately after radionuclide deposition (rather than 4 years after the accident as applied earlier) and by introducing an estimate of individual dose distributions. New input data to the model are the nuclide-specific composition of the deposit, additional data about migration of caesium in soil, time dependence of location factors and uncertainty distributions of all input parameters. Model results (i.e. effective dose-rates and accumulated effective doses) from external exposure for the rural and urban populations in contaminated areas of Russia during 100 years after the accident are presented. Radionuclide contributions to the dose during various time intervals after the accident have been estimated. The model has been validated by measurements of absorbed dose-rate in air during the first 30 days after the accident and by TLD measurements of individual external doses among inhabitants of contaminated rural settlements in the year 1993. Both the measurements and model show that the geometric mean of individual external doses is about 10% lower than the arithmetic mean and the upper bound of the 95% confidence range is larger by a factor of about 2.